2023 · Week 12 · Nov 17, 2023 · Gesa Field
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Win probability · WSU
modelWSU aheadCOLO aheadconfidence bandkey playWSU scoreCOLO score
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q1 1:34 · Nick Haberer punt for 39 yds
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Home team on offenseScore differentialPregame priorBlowout marginGarbage-time factorScore diff ÷ offense timeouts
This game in five plays
- TD · Q1 8:57: Lincoln Victor run for 15 yds for a TD (Dean Janikowski KICK) — WSU win probability +1.7 pts (now 71%) (top driver: WSU has the ball).
- TD · Q1 5:14: Brennan Jackson 40 Yd Fumble Return (Dean Janikowski Kick) — WSU win probability +2.9 pts (now 73%) (top driver: COLO has the ball).
- TD · Q1 0:56: Shedeur Sanders pass complete to Travis Hunter for 45 yds for a TD (Alejandro Mata KICK) — COLO win probability +4.6 pts (now 30%) (top driver: COLO has the ball).
- TD · Q2 12:08: Cameron Ward pass complete to Nakia Watson for 23 yds for a TD (Dean Janikowski KICK) — WSU win probability +6.4 pts (now 86%) (top driver: WSU has the ball).
- TD · Q2 3:48: Cameron Ward run for 1 yd for a TD (Dean Janikowski KICK) — WSU win probability +4.0 pts (now 96%) (top driver: WSU has the ball).
Was that the right call?
Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works
Fourth downs
WSU made the numbers' call on 5 of 5COLO made the numbers' call on 8 of 11
- Q1 13:16COLO 4th & 8 at COLO 26, tiedAgrees with the numbersPunted · 36.3% before the snapGo for it36.2%−0.133% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call36.3%average punt
- Q1 2:10COLO 4th & 8 at COLO 49, down 14Agrees with the numbersPunted · 28.8% before the snapGo for it28.8%−0.234% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call29.0%average punt
- Q1 1:34WSU 4th & 7 at WSU 10, up 14Agrees with the numbersPunted · 72.1% before the snapGo for it71.6%−0.435% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call72.0%average punt
- Q2 14:57COLO 4th & 2 at COLO 33, down 15Close callPunted · 29.7% before the snapGo for it30.1%57% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call30.1%−0.1average punt
- Q2 10:40COLO 4th & 13 at COLO 19, down 21Agrees with the numbersPunted · 15.0% before the snapGo for it14.0%−1.019% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call15.1%average punt
- Q2 9:14WSU 4th & 20 at WSU 14, up 21Agrees with the numbersPunted · 86.1% before the snapGo for it83.6%−2.79% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call86.3%average punt
- Q2 8:06COLO 4th & 9 at COLO 42, down 21Agrees with the numbersPunted · 13.8% before the snapGo for it13.4%−0.832% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call14.1%average punt
- Q2 2:44COLO 4th & 7 at COLO 28, down 28Agrees with the numbersPunted · 3.7% before the snapGo for it2.9%−0.636% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call3.5%average punt
- Q3 14:05WSU 4th & 10 at WSU 25, up 35Agrees with the numbersPunted · 97.8% before the snapGo for it97.8%−0.228% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call97.9%average punt
- Q3 11:31COLO 4th & 4 at COLO 45, down 35Close callPunted · 1.2% before the snapGo for it1.2%48% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call1.2%−<0.1average punt
- Q3 9:54WSU 4th & 13 at WSU 12, up 35Agrees with the numbersPunted · 98.9% before the snapGo for it98.8%−0.219% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call99.0%average punt
- Q3 8:19COLO 4th & 12 at WSU 35, down 35Close callWent for it · 1.1% before the snapGo for itTheir call1.1%−<0.124% to convertField goal1.2%45% to makePunt1.1%−0.1average punt
- Q4 11:48COLO 4th & 1 at WSU 1, down 49Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 0.2% before the snapGo for itTheir call0.2%59% to convertField goal0.0%−0.194% to makePunt-0.4%−0.5average punt
- Q4 10:13WSU 4th & 9 at WSU 26, up 42Agrees with the numbersPunted · 99.8% before the snapGo for it99.8%−0.130% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call99.9%average punt
- Q4 9:02COLO 4th & 9 at COLO 26, down 42Agrees with the numbersPunted · 0.1% before the snapGo for it0.1%−0.130% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call0.1%average punt
- Q4 4:51COLO 4th & 7 at WSU 49, down 42Agrees with the numbersPunted · 0.1% before the snapGo for it0.1%−<0.137% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call0.1%average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
WSU made the numbers' call on 7 of 7COLO made the numbers' call on 2 of 2
- Q1 8:57WSU Touchdown, up 6 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call65.1%97% to makeGo for two65.1%−<0.145% to convert
- Q1 5:14WSU Touchdown, up 13 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call69.7%97% to makeGo for two69.7%−<0.145% to convert
- Q1 0:56COLO Touchdown, down 8 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call32.7%97% to makeGo for two32.6%−0.145% to convert
- Q2 12:08WSU Touchdown, up 21 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · missedKickTheir call84.6%97% to makeGo for two84.5%−0.145% to convert
- Q2 3:48WSU Touchdown, up 27 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call98.2%97% to makeGo for two98.1%−0.145% to convert
- Q2 0:57WSU Touchdown, up 34 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call97.9%97% to makeGo for two97.9%−<0.145% to convert
- Q3 6:10WSU Touchdown, up 41 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call99.6%97% to makeGo for two99.6%−<0.145% to convert
- Q3 5:23WSU Touchdown, up 48 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call99.7%97% to makeGo for two99.7%−<0.145% to convert
- Q4 11:48COLO Touchdown, down 43 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call0.2%97% to makeGo for two0.2%−<0.145% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chartCOLODrive 1PUNT4 plays · 2 yds · 1:3731% → 31%
WSUDrive 2TD8 plays · 65 yds · 4:1669% → 71%
Q1 13:13
1ST & 10
OWN 35
+4
68.5%
Cameron Ward pass complete to Lincoln Victor for 4 yds to the WSU 39Similar
Q1 12:30
2ND & 6
OWN 39
+14
68.6%
Cameron Ward pass complete to Josh Kelly for 14 yds to the COLO 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 11:02
2ND & 9
OPP 46
+12
68.6%
Cameron Ward pass complete to Kyle Williams for 12 yds to the COLO 34 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 10:20
1ST & 10
OPP 34
+15
68.7%
Cameron Ward pass complete to Lincoln Victor for 15 yds to the COLO 19 for a 1ST downSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
COLODrive 3FUMBLE RETURN TD7 plays · 17 yds · 3:3730% → 27%
Q1 8:51
1ST & 10
OWN 23
-6
69.8%
Shedeur Sanders sacked by Brennan Jackson and David Gusta for a loss of 6 yards to the COLO 17Similar
Q1 7:51
3RD & 12
OWN 21
+18
70.4%
Shedeur Sanders pass complete to Sy'veon Wilkerson for 18 yds to the COLO 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 6:30
2ND & 6
OWN 43
-1
69.7%
Shedeur Sanders sacked by Quinn Roff for a loss of 1 yard to the COLO 42Similar
Q1 5:50
3RD & 7
OWN 42
+9
70.2%
Shedeur Sanders pass complete to Jimmy Horn Jr. for 9 yds to the WSU 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
COLODrive 4PUNT7 plays · 24 yds · 3:0026% → 25%
Q1 4:12
1ST & 10
OWN 36
+11
73.8%
Ryan Staub pass complete to Sy'veon Wilkerson for 11 yds to the COLO 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WSUDrive 5PUNT4 plays · 3 yds · 0:3676% → 75%
COLODrive 6TD3 plays · 49 yds · 0:3626% → 30%
COLODrive 7PUNT4 plays · 8 yds · 0:4527% → 26%
Q1 0:29
3RD & 10
OWN 25
+8
73.7%
Shedeur Sanders pass complete to Travis Hunter for 8 yds to the COLO 33Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WSUDrive 8TD8 plays · 67 yds · 2:4477% → 86%
Q2 14:52
1ST & 10
OWN 33
0
77.3%
Cameron Ward pass complete to Lincoln Victor for no gain to the WSU 33Similar
Q2 14:15
2ND & 10
OWN 33
+15
77.5%
Cameron Ward pass complete to Josh Kelly for 15 yds to the WSU 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 13:51
2ND & 10
OWN 48
+16
78.3%
Cameron Ward pass complete to Josh Kelly for 16 yds to the COLO 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 13:32
1ST & 10
OPP 36
+13
78.7%
Cameron Ward pass complete to Josh Kelly for 13 yds to the COLO 23 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 12:08
3RD & 10
OPP 23
+23
85.7%
Cameron Ward pass complete to Nakia Watson for 23 yds for a TD (Dean Janikowski KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
COLODrive 9PUNT5 plays · -3 yds · 1:1514% → 13%
Q2 10:52
3RD & 8
OWN 24
-5
86.6%
Shedeur Sanders run for a loss of 5 yards to the COLO 19 Shedeur Sanders fumbled, recovered by COLO Shedeur Sanders [SG] QB Keeper SANDERS, Shedeur rush up the middle for a loss of 5 yards, SANDERS, Shedeur fumbled at CU19 , recovered by CU SANDERS, Shedeur at the CU19, returned 0 yards to the CU19 (JACKSON, Brennan), clock 10:52.Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WSUDrive 10PUNT4 plays · -10 yds · 1:1287% → 88%
Q2 10:26
1ST & 10
OWN 24
-10
86.7%
Cameron Ward sacked by Chazz Wallace for a loss of 10 yards to the WSU 14Similar
Q2 9:45
2ND & 20
OWN 14
0
88.1%
Cameron Ward pass complete to Kyle Williams for no gain to the WSU 14Similar
Q2 9:14
4TH & 20
OWN 14
0
87.7%
Nick Haberer punt for 45 yds, fair catch by Xavier Weaver at the COLO 41Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
COLODrive 11PUNT5 plays · 1 yds · 1:0313% → 12%
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WSUDrive 12TD11 plays · 97 yds · 4:0789% → 96%
Q2 6:33
2ND & 2
OWN 21
+15
89.9%
(06:33) WARD, Cameron pass deep to the left incomplete intended for WILLIAMS, Kyle thrown to the CU50, clock 06:31. PENALTY CU Pass Interference on HUNTER, Travis enforced 15 yards to the WSU36 and results in automatic 1ST DOWN [NHSG]. NO PLAY (replay the down).Similar
Q2 6:20
2ND & 10
OWN 36
+21
90.0%
Cameron Ward pass complete to Josh Kelly for 21 yds to the COLO 43 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 5:40
1ST & 10
OPP 43
+6
90.6%
Cameron Ward pass complete to Cooper Mathers for 6 yds to the COLO 37Similar
Q2 4:59
2ND & 4
OPP 37
+29
91.0%
Cameron Ward pass complete to Carlos Hernandez for 29 yds to the COLO 8 for a 1ST downSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
COLODrive 13PUNT5 plays · 3 yds · 1:033% → 4%
Q2 2:53
3RD & 14
OWN 21
+7
96.7%
Ryan Staub pass complete to Xavier Weaver for 7 yds to the COLO 28Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WSUDrive 14TD7 plays · 73 yds · 1:3896% → 98%
Q2 1:32
1ST & 10
OWN 47
+51
97.4%
Cameron Ward pass complete to Josh Kelly for 51 yds to the COLO 2 for a 1ST downSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
COLODrive 15END OF HALF5 plays · 6 yds · 0:371% → 1%
WSUDrive 16PUNT4 plays · 0 yds · 0:5498% → 98%
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
COLODrive 17PUNT6 plays · 18 yds · 2:252% → 1%
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WSUDrive 18PUNT6 plays · -3 yds · 1:4199% → 99%
Q3 10:50
2ND & 5
OWN 20
-8
99.0%
Cameron Ward sacked by LaVonta Bentley for a loss of 8 yards to the WSU 12Similar
Q3 9:41
1ST & 10
OPP 48
+15
99.2%
(09:41) KULD, Gavin pass deep to the right incomplete intended for HUNTER, Travis thrown to the WSU18, clock 09:38. PENALTY WSU Pass Interference on HALL, Stephen enforced 15 yards to the WSU33 and results in automatic 1ST DOWN [NHSG]. NO PLAY (replay the down).Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
COLODrive 19DOWNS4 plays · 14 yds · 1:181% → 1%
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WSUDrive 20TD5 plays · 66 yds · 2:0499% → 100%
COLODrive 21FUMBLE RETURN TD2 plays · 17 yds · 0:350% → 0%
COLODrive 22INT6 plays · 35 yds · 2:310% → 0%
Q3 2:35
3RD & 9
OPP 48
-10
99.8%
Gavin Kuld pass intercepted Taariq Al-Uqdah return for 10 yds to the COLO 38 Colorado Penalty, Illegal Forward Pass (Gavin Kuld) declinedSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WSUDrive 23FUMBLE4 plays · 30 yds · 1:32100% → 100%
COLODrive 24TD11 plays · 80 yds · 4:050% → 0%
WSUDrive 25PUNT5 plays · 1 yds · 1:35100% → 100%
Q4 11:48
3RD & 4
OWN 31
-5
99.9%
Washington State Penalty, False Start (Carlos Hernandez) to the WSU 26Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
COLODrive 26PUNT4 plays · 1 yds · 1:080% → 0%
Q4 9:39
2ND & 8
OWN 27
-1
99.9%
Ryan Staub pass complete to Omarion Miller for a loss of 1 yard to the COLO 26Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WSUDrive 27FUMBLE5 plays · 29 yds · 2:40100% → 100%
Q4 6:13
2ND & 11
OWN 46
+6
99.9%
John Mateer pass complete to Cameron Johnson for 6 yds Cameron Johnson fumbled, recovered by COLO Shilo Sanders [NHSG] MATEER, John pass short to the left complete for 6 yards to JOHNSON, Cameron caught at the WSU50, JOHNSON, Cameron fumbled at CU48 forced by SANDERS, Shilo, recovered by CU SANDERS, Shilo at the CU48, returned 0 yards to the CU48, End of Play, clock 06:13.Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
COLODrive 28PUNT4 plays · 3 yds · 0:500% → 0%
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WSUDrive 29END OF GAME8 plays · 51 yds · 4:07100% → 100%
Q4 4:48
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+7
99.9%
Dylan Paine run for 7 yds to the WSU 27 Dylan Paine fumbled, recovered by WSU (04:48) [NHSG] PAINE, Dylan rush up the middle for a gain of 7 yards, PAINE, Dylan fumbled at WSU25 forced by BREEDLOVE, Kyndrich, recovered by WSU TRIPP, Ashton at the WSU27, returned 0 yards to the WSU27, End of Play, clock 04:26.Similar
Q4 2:40
1ST & 10
OWN 32
+48
100.0%
John Mateer pass complete to Carlos Hernandez for 48 yds to the COLO 20 for a 1ST downSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
TD · Q2 12:08
Cameron Ward pass complete to Nakia Watson for 23 yds for a TD (Dean Janikowski KICK)
+6.4
TD · Q1 0:56
Shedeur Sanders pass complete to Travis Hunter for 45 yds for a TD (Alejandro Mata KICK)
-4.6
TD · Q2 3:48
Cameron Ward run for 1 yd for a TD (Dean Janikowski KICK)
+4