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ASU

Arizona State 17 at UCLA 7

UCLA
2023 · Week 11 · Nov 11, 2023 · Rose Bowl
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Win probability · UCLA
modelUCLA aheadASU aheadconfidence bandkey playUCLA scoreASU score
0%25%50%75%100%Q1Q2Q3Q4FGTDTDTDEnd of Game
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q2 3:38 · Josh Carlson punt for 48 yds
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Pregame priorHome team on offenseScore differentialGarbage-time factorScore diff ÷ seconds remainingScore diff ÷ offense timeouts
+37.5+18.80−18.8−37.5Q1Q2Q3Q4Play 60Pregame prior+18.6Home team on offense−1.8Score differential−2.0Garbage-time factor−0.2Score diff ÷ seconds remaining−0.7Score diff ÷ offense timeouts−0.8
This game in five plays
  1. TD · Q3 1:59: Cameron Skattebo pass complete to Elijhah Badger for 25 yds for a TD (Dario Longhetto KICK) — ASU win probability +16.3 pts (now 70%) (top driver: ASU has the ball).
  2. KEY PLAY · Q3 15:00: Collin Schlee run for 4 yds to the ASU 41 — UCLA win probability +24.4 pts (now 54%) (top driver: UCLA has the ball).
  3. KEY PLAY · Q3 1:52: Collin Schlee pass complete to Carson Steele for 17 yds to the UCLA 41 for a 1ST down — ASU win probability +21.9 pts (now 68%) (top driver: UCLA has the ball).
  4. TD · Q4 9:47: Collin Schlee pass complete to Logan Loya for 16 yds for a TD (Blake Glessner KICK) — UCLA win probability +29.2 pts (now 53%) (top driver: Game still competitive relative to time left).
  5. TD · Q4 3:07: Cameron Skattebo run for 17 yds for a TD (Dario Longhetto KICK) — ASU win probability +15.7 pts (now 93%) (top driver: ASU has the ball).
Was that the right call?

Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works

Fourth downs
UCLA made the numbers' call on 6 of 8ASU made the numbers' call on 7 of 8
  1. Q1 12:13ASU 4th & 16 at ASU 43, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 17.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    17.0%−0.2
    16% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    17.1%
    average punt
  2. Q1 7:37UCLA 4th & 21 at UCLA 36, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 81.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    80.9%−0.3
    8% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    81.2%
    average punt
  3. Q2 7:54ASU 4th & 5 at UCLA 11, tied
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 26.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    26.1%−<0.1
    37% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    26.1%
    87% to make
    Punt
    22.3%−3.8
    average punt
  4. Q2 4:01UCLA 4th & 1 at ASU 1, down 3
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 71.7% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    71.0%
    59% to convert
    Field goal
    68.7%−2.4
    94% to make
    Punt
    63.0%−8.1
    average punt
  5. Q2 3:38ASU 4th & 10 at ASU 1, up 3
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 28.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    25.6%−3.2
    24% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    28.7%
    average punt
  6. Q2 2:12UCLA 4th & 1 at ASU 9, down 3
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 70.6% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    71.0%
    71% to convert
    Field goal
    68.6%−2.4
    89% to make
    Punt
    63.1%−7.9
    average punt
  7. Q2 1:21ASU 4th & 2 at ASU 17, up 3
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 31.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    30.2%−0.2
    57% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    30.4%
    average punt
  8. Q2 0:51UCLA 4th & 19 at ASU 46, down 3
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 67.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    65.8%−0.9
    11% to convert
    Field goal
    66.5%−0.2
    23% to make
    PuntTheir call
    66.7%
    average punt
  9. Q2 0:00ASU 4th & 1 at ASU 29, up 3
    Numbers favored go for it by 2.4 ptsPunted · 32.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    32.8%
    71% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    30.4%−2.4
    average punt
  10. Q3 13:34UCLA 4th & 8 at UCLA 24, down 3
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 64.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    63.9%−1.6
    32% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    65.5%
    average punt
  11. Q3 11:37ASU 4th & 12 at ASU 41, up 3
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 34.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    32.8%−2.7
    23% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    35.5%
    average punt
  12. Q3 9:19UCLA 4th & 6 at midfield, down 3
    Close callPunted · 63.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    63.5%
    40% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    63.4%−0.1
    average punt
  13. Q4 14:25UCLA 4th & 2 at ASU 37, down 10
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 32.9% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    33.2%
    57% to convert
    Field goal
    30.0%−3.2
    40% to make
    Punt
    29.7%−3.5
    average punt
  14. Q4 11:51ASU 4th & 24 at ASU 22, up 10
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 71.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    65.1%−8.5
    6% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    73.6%
    average punt
  15. Q4 3:12ASU 4th & 4 at UCLA 24, up 3
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 74.0% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    71.4%
    47% to convert
    Field goal
    70.2%−1.2
    68% to make
    Punt
    51.4%−20.0
    average punt
  16. Q4 2:25UCLA 4th & 10 at UCLA 25, down 10
    Close callWent for it · 6.6% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    6.9%−0.6
    28% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    Punt
    7.5%
    average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
UCLA made the numbers' call on 0 of 1ASU made the numbers' call on 2 of 2
  1. Q3 1:59ASU Touchdown, up 9 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    65.1%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    64.9%−0.2
    45% to convert
  2. Q4 9:47UCLA Touchdown, down 4 before the try
    Close callKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    42.0%−0.2
    97% to make
    Go for two
    42.2%
    45% to convert
  3. Q4 3:07ASU Touchdown, up 9 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    91.8%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    90.7%−1.2
    45% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chart
ASUDrive 1PUNT
8 plays · 18 yds · 2:4319% → 19%
Q1 14:56
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+11
81.4%
Melquan Stovall run for 11 yds to the ASU 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 14:27
1ST & 10
OWN 36
+5
81.3%
(14:27) BOURGUET, Trenton pass to the left complete for 7 yards to BADGER, Elijhah caught at the ASU43 and advanced to the ASU43 (NIMMO JR., William), clock 14:25. PENALTY UCL Offsides on TOIA, Jay enforced 5 yards from the ASU36 to the ASU41 [NHSG]. NO PLAY (replay the down).Similar
Q1 14:01
1ST & 5
OWN 41
+8
81.1%
Trenton Bourguet pass complete to Elijhah Badger for 8 yds to the ASU 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 13:32
1ST & 10
OWN 49
-5
80.9%
BOURGUET, Trenton pass deep to the left complete for 46 yards to OMEIRE, Troy caught at the UCL15, OMEIRE, Troy fumbled at UCL5 forced by DAVIES, Jaylin out of bounds to the UCL5, clock 13:32. PENALTY Before the snap, ASU Illegal Formation enforced 5 yards from the ASU49 to the ASU44. NO PLAY (replay the down).Similar
Q1 13:06
1ST & 15
OWN 44
0
80.9%
Trenton Bourguet pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 13:00
2ND & 15
OWN 44
-1
80.8%
Trenton Bourguet pass complete to Cameron Skattebo for a loss of 1 yard to the ASU 43Similar
Q1 12:17
3RD & 16
OWN 43
0
80.7%
Trenton Bourguet pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 12:13
4TH & 16
OWN 43
0
80.7%
Josh Carlson punt for 37 ydsSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UCLADrive 2PUNT
9 plays · 16 yds · 4:2681% → 79%
Q1 12:03
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+1
80.7%
Carson Steele run for 1 yd to the UCLA 21Similar
Q1 11:32
2ND & 9
OWN 21
+7
80.5%
Keegan Jones run for 7 yds to the UCLA 28Similar
Q1 11:06
3RD & 2
OWN 28
+7
80.3%
Anthony Adkins run for 7 yds to the UCLA 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 10:36
1ST & 10
OWN 35
+12
80.3%
Carson Steele run for 12 yds to the UCLA 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 10:04
1ST & 10
OWN 47
+9
80.4%
Collin Schlee run for 9 yds to the ASU 44Similar
Q1 9:23
2ND & 1
OPP 44
-10
80.4%
UCLA Penalty, Offensive Holding (-10 Yards) to the UCLA 49Similar
Q1 8:34
2ND & 8
OWN 49
+4
80.0%
Collin Schlee pass complete to J. Michael Sturdivant for 4 yds to the ASU 47Similar
Q1 8:13
3RD & 4
OPP 47
-17
79.9%
Collin Schlee sacked by Elijah O'Neal and Dashaun Mallory for a loss of 17 yards to the UCLA 36Similar
Q1 7:37
4TH & 21
OWN 36
0
78.9%
Will Powers punt for 34 ydsSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ASUDrive 3INT
13 plays · 43 yds · 6:0921% → 24%
Q1 7:26
1ST & 10
OWN 30
0
79.0%
Trenton Bourguet pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 7:25
2ND & 10
OWN 30
+5
79.1%
(07:25) SKATTEBO, Cam rush to the right for a gain of 1 yard to the ASU31 (MEDRANO, Kain;MUASAU, Darius), clock 07:20. PENALTY UCL Offsides on MEDRANO, Kain enforced 5 yards from the ASU30 to the ASU35 [NHSG]. NO PLAY (replay the down).Similar
Q1 6:58
2ND & 5
OWN 35
+2
78.7%
run for 2 yds to the ASU 37Similar
Q1 6:16
3RD & 3
OWN 37
+7
78.6%
run for 7 yds to the ASU 44 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 5:31
1ST & 10
OWN 44
+4
78.0%
Trenton Bourguet pass complete to Elijhah Badger for 4 yds to the ASU 48Similar
Q1 5:03
2ND & 6
OWN 48
+1
77.8%
Kyson Brown run for 1 yd to the ASU 49Similar
Q1 4:14
3RD & 5
OWN 49
+2
77.6%
run for 2 yds to the UCLA 49Similar
Q1 3:17
1ST & 10
OPP 44
0
77.1%
Trenton Bourguet pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 3:10
2ND & 10
OPP 44
+20
77.0%
Trenton Bourguet pass complete to Bryce Pierre for 20 yds to the UCLA 24 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 2:23
1ST & 10
OPP 24
-5
76.1%
Arizona State Penalty, Delay Of Game (Jalin Conyers) to the UCLA 29Similar
Q1 1:54
1ST & 15
OPP 29
+2
76.1%
run for 2 yds to the UCLA 27Similar
Q1 1:17
2ND & 13
OPP 27
0
75.8%
Trenton Bourguet pass intercepted, touchback.Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UCLADrive 4FUMBLE
8 plays · 58 yds · 3:2378% → 79%
Q1 1:09
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+2
77.8%
Collin Schlee run for 2 yds to the UCLA 22Similar
Q1 0:37
2ND & 8
OWN 22
+21
77.6%
Collin Schlee run for 21 yds to the UCLA 43 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 0:03
1ST & 10
OWN 43
+3
78.3%
TJ Harden run for 3 yds to the UCLA 46Similar
Q2 14:59
2ND & 7
OWN 46
0
78.4%
Collin Schlee pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 14:50
3RD & 7
OWN 46
+9
77.9%
Collin Schlee pass complete to Ryan Cragun for 9 yds to the ASU 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 14:16
1ST & 10
OPP 45
+15
78.5%
TJ Harden run for 15 yds to the ASU 30 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 13:35
1ST & 10
OPP 30
+4
78.7%
TJ Harden run for 4 yds to the ASU 26Similar
Q2 12:46
2ND & 6
OPP 26
+4
78.6%
Anthony Adkins run for 4 yds to the ASU 25 Anthony Adkins fumbled, recovered by ASU Shamari Simmons (12:46) [NHSG] ADKINS, Anthony rush up the middle for a gain of 4 yards, ADKINS, Anthony fumbled at ASU22 forced by MCCULLOUGH, Caleb, recovered by ASU SIMMONS, Shamari at the ASU22, returned 3 yards to the ASU25 (MATAVAO, Moliki;MCCULLOUGH, Caleb), clock 12:41.Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ASUDrive 5FG
10 plays · 64 yds · 4:4524% → 30%
Q2 12:39
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+12
75.7%
Trenton Bourguet pass complete to Elijhah Badger for 12 yds to the ASU 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 12:10
1ST & 10
OWN 37
+6
75.1%
Trenton Bourguet run for 6 yds to the ASU 43Similar
Q2 11:38
2ND & 4
OWN 43
+6
74.1%
Trenton Bourguet pass complete to Elijhah Badger for 6 yds to the ASU 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 10:55
1ST & 10
OWN 49
0
73.6%
Trenton Bourguet pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 10:48
2ND & 10
OWN 49
+5
73.8%
Trenton Bourguet pass complete to Cameron Skattebo for 5 yds to the UCLA 46Similar
Q2 10:10
3RD & 5
OPP 46
+30
73.4%
Trenton Bourguet pass complete to Elijhah Badger for 30 yds to the UCLA 16 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 9:26
1ST & 10
OPP 16
+6
72.0%
Trenton Bourguet pass complete to Giovanni Sanders for 6 yds to the UCLA 10Similar
Q2 8:44
2ND & 4
OPP 10
0
71.6%
Trenton Bourguet pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 8:40
3RD & 4
OPP 10
-1
72.2%
Trenton Bourguet pass complete to Elijhah Badger for a loss of 1 yard to the UCLA 11Similar
Q2 7:54
4TH & 5
OPP 11
+29
70.1%
Dario Longhetto 29 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UCLADrive 6DOWNS
8 plays · 74 yds · 3:5271% → 71%
Q2 7:53
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+4
71.4%
Carson Steele run for 4 yds to the UCLA 29Similar
Q2 7:31
2ND & 6
OWN 29
+5
71.5%
Carson Steele run for 5 yds to the UCLA 34Similar
Q2 7:10
3RD & 1
OWN 34
+38
71.7%
Keegan Jones run for 38 yds to the ASU 28 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 6:25
1ST & 10
OPP 28
+23
73.9%
Collin Schlee pass complete to Moliki Matavao for 23 yds to the ASU 5 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 6:01
1ST & GOAL
OPP 5
+2
73.8%
Carson Steele run for 2 yds to the ASU 3Similar
Q2 5:15
2ND & GOAL
OPP 3
+1
73.5%
Collin Schlee run for 1 yd to the ASU 2Similar
Q2 4:46
3RD & GOAL
OPP 2
+1
72.2%
Carson Steele run for 1 yd to the ASU 1Similar
Q2 4:01
4TH & GOAL
OPP 1
0
71.0%
Carson Steele run for no gain to the ASU 1Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ASUDrive 7PUNT
4 plays · 0 yds · 0:1731% → 29%
Q2 3:55
1ST & 10
OWN 1
0
69.3%
Cameron Skattebo pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 3:50
2ND & 10
OWN 1
0
69.4%
Trenton Bourguet pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 3:43
3RD & 10
OWN 1
0
70.0%
Trenton Bourguet pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 3:38
4TH & 10
OWN 1
0
70.6%
Josh Carlson punt for 48 ydsSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UCLADrive 8DOWNS
5 plays · 9 yds · 1:1873% → 71%
Q2 3:30
1ST & 10
OPP 18
+9
72.8%
Collin Schlee pass complete to Keegan Jones for 9 yds to the ASU 9Similar
Q2 2:48
2ND & 1
OPP 9
0
72.3%
TJ Harden run for no gain to the ASU 9Similar
Q2 2:21
3RD & 1
OPP 9
0
70.9%
TJ Harden run for no gain to the ASU 9Similar
Q2 2:12
4TH & 1
OPP 9
0
70.7%
Carson Steele run for no gain to the ASU 9Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ASUDrive 9PUNT
6 plays · 8 yds · 0:4632% → 32%
Q2 2:07
1ST & 10
OWN 9
+8
68.5%
run for 8 yds to the ASU 17Similar
Q2 1:37
2ND & 2
OWN 17
-1
66.7%
Jalin Conyers pass complete to Elijhah Badger for a loss of 1 yard to the ASU 16Similar
Q2 1:30
3RD & 3
OWN 16
+1
67.5%
Trenton Bourguet pass complete to Melquan Stovall for 1 yd to the ASU 17Similar
Q2 1:21
4TH & 2
OWN 17
0
67.6%
Josh Carlson punt for 31 yds, downed at the ASU 48Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UCLADrive 10PUNT
7 plays · 2 yds · 0:2369% → 66%
Q2 1:14
1ST & 10
OPP 48
0
69.2%
Collin Schlee pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 1:05
2ND & 10
OPP 48
+11
68.9%
Collin Schlee pass complete to Josiah Norwood for 11 yds to the ASU 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 1:01
1ST & 10
OPP 37
0
69.2%
Collin Schlee pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 0:59
2ND & 10
OPP 37
0
69.0%
Collin Schlee pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 0:52
3RD & 10
OPP 37
-9
68.2%
Collin Schlee sacked by Tate Romney for a loss of 9 yards to the ASU 46Similar
Q2 0:51
4TH & 19
OPP 46
0
66.1%
Will Powers punt for 46 yds for a touchbackSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ASUDrive 11PUNT
5 plays · 9 yds · 0:4234% → 35%
Q2 0:42
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+5
66.0%
Trenton Bourguet pass complete to Elijhah Badger for 5 yds to the ASU 25Similar
Q2 0:17
2ND & 5
OWN 25
0
64.5%
Trenton Bourguet pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 0:09
3RD & 5
OWN 25
+4
64.9%
Cameron Skattebo run for 4 yds to the ASU 29Similar
Q2 0:00
4TH & 1
OWN 29
0
65.2%
Cameron Skattebo punt for 50 yds, downed at the UCLA 21Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UCLADrive 12PUNT
5 plays · 2 yds · 1:2966% → 63%
Q3 14:54
1ST & 10
OWN 22
0
66.1%
Collin Schlee pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 14:46
2ND & 10
OWN 22
+4
65.8%
Carson Steele run for 4 yds to the UCLA 26Similar
Q3 14:09
3RD & 6
OWN 26
-2
64.0%
Collin Schlee sacked by Clayton Smith for a loss of 2 yards to the UCLA 24Similar
Q3 13:34
4TH & 8
OWN 24
0
62.8%
Will Powers punt for 51 ydsSimilar
Q3 13:25
1ST & 10
OWN 28
+15
63.0%
(13:25) CONYERS, Jalin pass deep to the left incomplete intended for OMEIRE, Troy thrown to the ASU45, clock 13:22. PENALTY UCL Pass Interference on HUMPHREY, John enforced 15 yards to the ASU43 and results in automatic 1ST DOWN [NHSG]. NO PLAY (replay the down).Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ASUDrive 13PUNT
5 plays · 13 yds · 1:4139% → 37%
Q3 13:18
1ST & 10
OWN 43
+2
61.2%
run for 2 yds to the ASU 45Similar
Q3 12:37
2ND & 8
OWN 45
+3
60.7%
Jalin Conyers pass complete to Cameron Skattebo for 3 yds to the ASU 48Similar
Q3 12:04
3RD & 5
OWN 48
-7
60.9%
Jalin Conyers sacked by Gabriel Murphy for a loss of 7 yards to the ASU 41Similar
Q3 11:37
4TH & 12
OWN 41
0
63.3%
Josh Carlson punt for 39 yds, fair catch by Logan Loya at the UCLA 35Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UCLADrive 14PUNT
6 plays · 15 yds · 2:1062% → 60%
Q3 11:29
1ST & 10
OWN 35
+5
62.1%
Collin Schlee run for 5 yds to the UCLA 40Similar
Q3 11:04
2ND & 5
OWN 40
+6
64.6%
Keegan Jones run for 6 yds to the UCLA 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 10:31
1ST & 10
OWN 46
+6
64.4%
TJ Harden run for 6 yds to the ASU 48Similar
Q3 9:59
2ND & 4
OPP 48
-2
65.0%
Collin Schlee run for a loss of 2 yards to the 50 yard line Collin Schlee fumbled, recovered by UCLA Collin Schlee , return to the 50 yard lineSimilar
Q3 9:24
3RD & 6
50
0
63.2%
Collin Schlee pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 9:19
4TH & 6
50
0
60.0%
Will Powers punt for 49 yds, downed at the ASU 1Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ASUDrive 15TD
14 plays · 99 yds · 7:0941% → 70%
Q3 9:08
1ST & 10
OWN 1
+7
59.2%
Cameron Skattebo run for 7 yds to the ASU 8Similar
Q3 8:29
2ND & 3
OWN 8
+4
59.1%
Cameron Skattebo run for 4 yds to the ASU 12 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 7:49
1ST & 10
OWN 12
0
57.8%
Trenton Bourguet pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 7:46
2ND & 10
OWN 12
+5
58.2%
Trenton Bourguet pass complete to Melquan Stovall for 5 yds to the ASU 17Similar
Q3 6:50
3RD & 5
OWN 17
+5
58.4%
run for 5 yds to the ASU 22 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 6:15
1ST & 10
OWN 22
+11
56.3%
Kyson Brown run for 11 yds to the ASU 33 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 5:37
1ST & 10
OWN 33
+11
54.3%
Trenton Bourguet pass complete to Troy Omeire for 11 yds to the ASU 44 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 4:48
1ST & 10
OWN 44
0
50.9%
Kyson Brown run for no gain to the ASU 44Similar
Q3 4:05
2ND & 10
OWN 44
+17
51.0%
Trenton Bourguet pass complete to Elijhah Badger for 17 yds to the UCLA 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 3:25
1ST & 10
OPP 39
+7
48.8%
Trenton Bourguet pass complete to Troy Omeire for 7 yds to the UCLA 32Similar
Q3 2:43
2ND & 3
OPP 32
+7
46.0%
Trenton Bourguet run for 7 yds to the UCLA 25 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 2:13
1ST & 10
OPP 25
0
45.5%
Trenton Bourguet pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 2:04
2ND & 10
OPP 25
0
46.1%
Trenton Bourguet pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 1:59
3RD & 10
OPP 25
+25
29.8%
Cameron Skattebo pass complete to Elijhah Badger for 25 yds for a TD (Dario Longhetto KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UCLADrive 16DOWNS
7 plays · 40 yds · 15:3554% → 31%
Q3 15:00
2ND & 10
OPP 45
+4
54.2%
Collin Schlee run for 4 yds to the ASU 41Similar
Q3 1:52
1ST & 10
OWN 24
+17
32.2%
Collin Schlee pass complete to Carson Steele for 17 yds to the UCLA 41 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 1:25
1ST & 10
OWN 41
-10
33.8%
(01:25) STEELE, Carson rush up the middle for a gain of 4 yards to the UCL45 (FITE, C.J.), clock 01:21. PENALTY UCL Holding on DIGIORGIO, Garrett enforced 10 yards from the UCL41 to the UCL31 [NHSG]. NO PLAY (replay the down).Similar
Q3 1:03
1ST & 20
OWN 31
+24
30.8%
Collin Schlee run for 24 yds to the ASU 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 0:10
1ST & 10
OPP 45
-5
34.4%
UCLA Penalty, Illegal Forward Pass (Collin Schlee) to the ASU 45Similar
Q4 14:57
3RD & 6
OPP 41
+4
33.7%
Collin Schlee pass complete to Ryan Cragun for 4 yds to the ASU 37Similar
Q4 14:25
4TH & 2
OPP 37
+1
31.4%
Carson Steele run for 1 yd to the ASU 36Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ASUDrive 17PUNT
8 plays · -14 yds · 2:3071% → 73%
Q4 14:21
1ST & 10
OWN 36
+4
29.1%
Trenton Bourguet pass complete to Elijhah Badger for 4 yds to the ASU 40Similar
Q4 13:43
2ND & 6
OWN 40
0
27.5%
Trenton Bourguet pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 13:37
3RD & 6
OWN 40
+3
27.1%
Trenton Bourguet pass complete to Jalin Conyers for 3 yds to the ASU 43Similar
Q4 13:00
4TH & 3
OWN 43
-5
28.5%
Arizona State Penalty, False Start (Leif Fautanu) to the ASU 38Similar
Q4 12:48
4TH & 8
OWN 38
-6
26.7%
Arizona State Penalty, False Start (Sean Na'a) to the ASU 32Similar
Q4 12:20
4TH & 14
OWN 32
-5
27.6%
Arizona State Penalty, Delay Of Game (Trenton Bourguet) to the ASU 27Similar
Q4 11:52
4TH & 19
OWN 27
-5
27.1%
Arizona State Penalty, False Start (Cameron Skattebo) to the ASU 22Similar
Q4 11:51
4TH & 24
OWN 22
0
27.2%
Josh Carlson punt for 37 yds, fair catch by Logan Loya at the UCLA 41Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UCLADrive 18TD
6 plays · 59 yds · 1:5826% → 53%
Q4 11:45
1ST & 10
OWN 41
+8
26.4%
Collin Schlee pass complete to Logan Loya for 8 yds to the UCLA 49Similar
Q4 11:19
2ND & 2
OWN 49
+9
27.4%
TJ Harden run for 9 yds to the ASU 42 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 10:51
1ST & 10
OPP 42
+10
27.5%
Collin Schlee run for 10 yds to the ASU 32 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 10:37
1ST & 10
OPP 32
+1
26.2%
Collin Schlee pass complete to Ryan Cragun for 1 yd to the ASU 31Similar
Q4 10:02
2ND & 9
OPP 31
+15
24.2%
Collin Schlee pass complete to Logan Loya for 15 yds to the ASU 16 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 9:47
1ST & 10
OPP 16
+16
53.4%
Collin Schlee pass complete to Logan Loya for 16 yds for a TD (Blake Glessner KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ASUDrive 19TD
15 plays · 75 yds · 6:3561% → 93%
Q4 9:42
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+9
39.5%
run for 9 yds to the ASU 34Similar
Q4 9:03
2ND & 1
OWN 34
+2
36.2%
run for 2 yds to the ASU 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 8:18
1ST & 10
OWN 36
+1
35.2%
Cameron Skattebo run for 1 yd to the ASU 37Similar
Q4 7:35
2ND & 9
OWN 37
-5
34.9%
Melquan Stovall run for a loss of 5 yards to the ASU 32Similar
Q4 6:40
3RD & 14
OWN 32
+15
36.7%
UCLA Penalty, Personal Foul (Gabriel Murphy) to the ASU 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 6:14
1ST & 10
OWN 45
+5
29.2%
Kyson Brown run for 5 yds to the 50 yard lineSimilar
Q4 5:27
2ND & 5
50
+4
25.6%
run for 4 yds to the UCLA 46Similar
Q4 4:40
3RD & 1
OPP 46
+16
23.7%
(04:40) CONYERS, Jalin pass deep to the right incomplete intended for BADGER, Elijhah thrown to the UCL25, clock 04:36. PENALTY UCL Pass Interference on KIRKWOOD, Devin enforced 16 yards to the UCL30 and results in automatic 1ST DOWN [NHSG]. NO PLAY (replay the down).Similar
Q4 4:35
1ST & 10
OPP 30
0
22.4%
Cameron Skattebo pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 4:30
2ND & 10
OPP 30
-2
22.5%
run for a loss of 2 yards to the UCLA 32Similar
Q4 3:43
3RD & 12
OPP 32
+8
23.5%
Cameron Skattebo run for 8 yds to the UCLA 24Similar
Q4 3:12
4TH & 4
OPP 24
+7
22.5%
Trenton Bourguet pass complete to Elijhah Badger for 7 yds to the UCLA 17 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 3:07
1ST & 10
OPP 17
+17
6.8%
Cameron Skattebo run for 17 yds for a TD (Dario Longhetto KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UCLADrive 20DOWNS
4 plays · 0 yds · 0:414% → 4%
Q4 3:06
1ST & 10
OWN 25
0
4.2%
Collin Schlee run for no gain to the UCLA 25Similar
Q4 2:35
2ND & 10
OWN 25
0
4.0%
Collin Schlee pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 2:31
3RD & 10
OWN 25
0
3.9%
Chase Griffin pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 2:25
4TH & 10
OWN 25
0
3.6%
Chase Griffin pass incompleteSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ASUDrive 21DOWNS
4 plays · -35 yds · 2:2094% → 96%
Q4 2:23
1ST & 10
OPP 25
0
5.7%
(02:23) [NHSG] Kneel down by ASU at UCL35 (team loss of 10), clock 02:11.Similar
Q4 1:35
2ND & 20
OPP 35
0
4.5%
(01:35) [NHSG] Kneel down by ASU at UCL42 (team loss of 7), clock 01:30.Similar
Q4 0:53
3RD & 27
OPP 42
0
4.7%
(00:53) [NHSG] Kneel down by ASU at ASU40 (team loss of 18), clock 00:45.Similar
Q4 0:03
4TH & 45
OWN 40
0
4.3%
Trenton Bourguet pass incompleteSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UCLADrive 22END OF GAME
1 play · 0 yds · 0:004% → 4%
Q4 0:00
1ST & 10
OPP 40
0
3.5%
Chase Griffin pass incompleteSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
TD · Q4 9:47
Collin Schlee pass complete to Logan Loya for 16 yds for a TD (Blake Glessner KICK)
+29.2
KEY PLAY · Q3 15:00
Collin Schlee run for 4 yds to the ASU 41
+24.4
KEY PLAY · Q3 1:52
Collin Schlee pass complete to Carson Steele for 17 yds to the UCLA 41 for a 1ST down
-21.9
YardLine · model v10Model estimate - not betting advice · Data provided by CollegeFootballData.com