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ARIZ

Arizona 34 at Colorado 31

COLO
2023 · Week 11 · Nov 11, 2023 · Folsom Field
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Win probability · COLO
modelCOLO aheadARIZ aheadconfidence bandkey playCOLO scoreARIZ score
0%25%50%75%100%Q1Q2Q3Q4TDTDTDTDTDFGFGTDTDTDFGEnd of Game
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q4 0:00 · Tyler Loop 24 yd FG GOOD
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Pregame priorHome team on offenseScore differentialScore diff ÷ offense timeoutsScore diff ÷ seconds remainingBlowout margin
+32.5+16.30−16.3−32.5Q1Q2Q3Q4
This game in five plays
  1. TD · Q2 3:13: Sy'veon Wilkerson run for 1 yd for a TD (Alejandro Mata KICK) — COLO win probability +12.7 pts (now 54%) (top driver: COLO has the ball).
  2. TD · Q3 12:41: Noah Fifita pass complete to Tetairoa McMillan for 2 yds for a TD (Tyler Loop KICK) — ARIZ win probability +12.6 pts (now 66%) (top driver: ARIZ has the ball).
  3. TD · Q3 3:22: Shedeur Sanders pass complete to Michael Harrison for 7 yds for a TD (Alejandro Mata KICK) — COLO win probability +23.6 pts (now 72%) (top driver: COLO has the ball).
  4. TD · Q4 14:55: DJ Williams run for 7 yds for a TD (Tyler Loop KICK) — ARIZ win probability +18.8 pts (now 62%) (top driver: ARIZ has the ball).
  5. FG · Q4 0:00: Tyler Loop 24 yd FG GOOD — ARIZ win probability +33.7 pts (now 94%) (top driver: ARIZ has the ball).
Was that the right call?

Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works

Fourth downs
COLO made the numbers' call on 6 of 9ARIZ made the numbers' call on 7 of 8
  1. Q1 13:48COLO 4th & 7 at COLO 28, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 33.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    33.1%−0.1
    36% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    33.2%
    average punt
  2. Q1 12:30ARIZ 4th & 12 at ARIZ 21, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 66.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    66.0%−0.2
    22% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    66.1%
    average punt
  3. Q1 4:43COLO 4th & 2 at ARIZ 47, tied
    Close callPunted · 37.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    37.4%
    57% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    37.1%−0.3
    average punt
  4. Q1 3:18ARIZ 4th & 5 at ARIZ 7, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 61.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    61.4%−0.2
    38% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    61.7%
    average punt
  5. Q2 12:50ARIZ 4th & 8 at ARIZ 43, down 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 53.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    53.5%−0.6
    34% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    54.1%
    average punt
  6. Q2 10:56COLO 4th & 7 at COLO 22, up 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 46.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    45.9%−0.8
    35% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    46.7%
    average punt
  7. Q2 1:32ARIZ 4th & 13 at COLO 35, down 7
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 43.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    43.0%−1.1
    21% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    44.1%
    45% to make
    Punt
    42.7%−1.4
    average punt
  8. Q2 0:00COLO 4th & 17 at ARIZ 21, up 4
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 49.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    47.5%−2.3
    13% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    49.8%
    74% to make
    Punt
    43.9%−5.9
    average punt
  9. Q3 9:16COLO 4th & 1 at midfield, tied
    Numbers favored go for it by 3.5 ptsPunted · 49.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    49.8%
    70% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    46.2%−3.5
    average punt
  10. Q3 7:09ARIZ 4th & 17 at ARIZ 14, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 51.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    48.2%−5.2
    13% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    53.4%
    average punt
  11. Q3 7:09COLO 4th & 7 at ARIZ 32, tied
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 49.8% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    49.4%
    37% to convert
    Field goal
    49.4%−0.1
    51% to make
    Punt
    47.7%−1.7
    average punt
  12. Q4 12:09COLO 4th & 19 at COLO 29, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 48.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    43.2%−7.1
    11% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    50.2%
    average punt
  13. Q4 10:04ARIZ 4th & 23 at ARIZ 19, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 46.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    37.2%−9.5
    6% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    46.7%
    average punt
  14. Q4 8:24COLO 4th & 1 at COLO 44, tied
    Numbers favored go for it by 6.0 ptsPunted · 55.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    57.1%
    70% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    51.1%−6.0
    average punt
  15. Q4 7:06ARIZ 4th & 2 at ARIZ 16, tied
    Numbers favored go for it by 1.6 ptsPunted · 47.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    48.0%
    57% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    46.4%−1.6
    average punt
  16. Q4 4:57COLO 4th & 7 at ARIZ 25, tied
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 57.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    55.7%−0.4
    36% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    56.1%
    66% to make
    Punt
    35.9%−20.3
    average punt
  17. Q4 0:00ARIZ 4th & 7 at COLO 7, tied
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 52.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    49.1%−6.8
    28% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    55.9%
    91% to make
    Punt
    21.3%−34.6
    average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
COLO made the numbers' call on 4 of 4ARIZ made the numbers' call on 4 of 4
  1. Q1 11:14COLO Touchdown, up 6 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    35.4%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    35.4%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  2. Q1 8:26ARIZ Touchdown, down 1 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    64.6%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    64.6%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  3. Q1 0:14COLO Touchdown, up 6 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    43.4%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    43.3%−0.1
    45% to convert
  4. Q2 8:33ARIZ Touchdown, down 1 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    56.8%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    56.8%−0.1
    45% to convert
  5. Q2 3:13COLO Touchdown, up 6 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    53.5%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    53.3%−0.1
    45% to convert
  6. Q3 12:41ARIZ Touchdown, down 1 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    51.3%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    51.1%−0.1
    45% to convert
  7. Q3 3:22COLO Touchdown, up 6 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    64.9%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    64.7%−0.2
    45% to convert
  8. Q4 14:55ARIZ Touchdown, down 1 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    46.2%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    45.9%−0.2
    45% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chart
COLODrive 1PUNT
4 plays · 3 yds · 1:1224% → 24%
Q1 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+2
23.5%
Shedeur Sanders pass complete to Travis Hunter for 2 yds to the COLO 27Similar
Q1 15:00
2ND & 8
OWN 27
0
23.5%
Shedeur Sanders pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 15:00
3RD & 8
OWN 27
+1
23.5%
Shedeur Sanders run for 1 yd to the COLO 28Similar
Q1 13:48
4TH & 7
OWN 28
0
24.0%
Mark Vassett punt for 49 yds, fair catch by Jacob Cowing at the ARIZ 23Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ARIZDrive 2PUNT
4 plays · -2 yds · 1:1876% → 75%
Q1 13:48
1ST & 10
OWN 23
0
24.1%
Noah Fifita pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 13:48
2ND & 10
OWN 23
-2
24.1%
Noah Fifita sacked by Leonard Payne Jr. and Chazz Wallace for a loss of 2 yards to the ARIZ 21Similar
Q1 13:48
3RD & 12
OWN 21
0
24.1%
Noah Fifita pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 12:30
4TH & 12
OWN 21
0
24.9%
Kyle Ostendorp punt for 44 ydsSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
COLODrive 3TD
3 plays · 36 yds · 1:1625% → 27%
Q1 12:30
1ST & 10
OPP 36
+17
25.0%
Shedeur Sanders pass complete to Javon Antonio for 17 yds to the ARIZ 19 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 12:30
1ST & 10
OPP 19
+3
25.1%
Sy'veon Wilkerson run for 3 yds to the ARIZ 16Similar
Q1 11:14
2ND & 7
OPP 16
+16
26.9%
Shedeur Sanders run for 16 yds for a TD (Alejandro Mata KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ARIZDrive 4TD
7 plays · 75 yds · 2:4874% → 74%
Q1 11:14
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+12
26.4%
Noah Fifita pass complete to Tetairoa McMillan for 12 yds to the ARIZ 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 11:14
1ST & 10
OWN 37
+31
26.3%
Noah Fifita pass complete to Montana Lemonious-Craig for 31 yds to the COLO 32 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 11:14
1ST & 10
OPP 32
+12
26.0%
Jonah Coleman run for 12 yds to the COLO 20 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 11:14
1ST & 10
OPP 20
+9
25.9%
Jonah Coleman run for 9 yds to the COLO 11Similar
Q1 8:30
2ND & 1
OPP 11
0
27.9%
DJ Williams run for no gain to the COLO 11Similar
Q1 8:26
3RD & 1
OPP 11
+11
26.2%
DJ Williams run for 11 yds for a TD (Tyler Loop KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
COLODrive 5PUNT
8 plays · 28 yds · 3:4327% → 30%
Q1 8:26
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+7
26.9%
Sy'veon Wilkerson run for 7 yds to the COLO 32Similar
Q1 8:26
2ND & 3
OWN 32
0
27.2%
Sy'veon Wilkerson run for no gain to the COLO 32Similar
Q1 8:26
3RD & 3
OWN 32
+13
26.9%
Shedeur Sanders pass complete to Xavier Weaver for 13 yds to the COLO 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 8:26
1ST & 10
OWN 45
+4
27.4%
Sy'veon Wilkerson run for 4 yds to the COLO 49Similar
Q1 8:26
2ND & 6
OWN 49
+1
27.5%
Shedeur Sanders run for 1 yd to the 50 yard lineSimilar
Q1 4:52
3RD & 5
50
+3
30.4%
Shedeur Sanders run for 3 yds to the ARIZ 47Similar
Q1 4:43
4TH & 2
OPP 47
0
30.2%
Mark Vassett punt for 45 yds, downed at the ARIZ 2Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ARIZDrive 6PUNT
4 plays · 5 yds · 1:2571% → 69%
Q1 4:43
1ST & 10
OWN 2
+3
29.4%
Jonah Coleman run for 3 yds to the ARIZ 5Similar
Q1 4:43
2ND & 7
OWN 5
+2
29.4%
Jonah Coleman run for 2 yds to the ARIZ 7Similar
Q1 4:43
3RD & 5
OWN 7
0
29.7%
Noah Fifita pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 3:18
4TH & 5
OWN 7
0
30.9%
Kyle Ostendorp punt for 49 ydsSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
COLODrive 7TD
9 plays · 48 yds · 3:0432% → 39%
Q1 3:18
1ST & 10
OPP 48
0
31.6%
Shedeur Sanders pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 3:18
2ND & 10
OPP 48
+5
31.5%
Dylan Edwards run for 5 yds to the ARIZ 43Similar
Q1 3:18
3RD & 5
OPP 43
+10
31.5%
Shedeur Sanders pass complete to Travis Hunter for 10 yds to the ARIZ 33 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 3:18
1ST & 10
OPP 33
0
32.0%
Shedeur Sanders pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 3:18
2ND & 10
OPP 33
+8
31.9%
Shedeur Sanders pass complete to Travis Hunter for 8 yds to the ARIZ 25Similar
Q1 3:18
3RD & 2
OPP 25
-5
31.5%
Colorado Penalty, False Start (Savion Washington) to the ARIZ 30Similar
Q1 3:18
3RD & 7
OPP 30
+10
31.5%
Shedeur Sanders run for 10 yds to the ARIZ 20 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 3:18
1ST & 10
OPP 20
0
32.0%
Shedeur Sanders pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 0:14
2ND & 10
OPP 20
+20
38.6%
Shedeur Sanders pass complete to Jimmy Horn Jr. for 20 yds for a TD (Alejandro Mata KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ARIZDrive 8PUNT
9 plays · 30 yds · 2:1862% → 60%
Q1 0:08
1ST & 10
OWN 13
0
37.7%
Noah Fifita pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 0:00
2ND & 10
OWN 13
+15
38.0%
Noah Fifita pass complete to Montana Lemonious-Craig for 15 yds to the ARIZ 28 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 28
0
37.6%
Rayshon Luke run for no gain to the ARIZ 28Similar
Q2 15:00
2ND & 10
OWN 28
0
37.8%
Noah Fifita pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 15:00
3RD & 10
OWN 28
+13
38.1%
Noah Fifita pass complete to Michael Wiley for 13 yds to the ARIZ 41 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 41
0
37.0%
Noah Fifita pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 15:00
2ND & 10
OWN 41
+2
37.2%
Rayshon Luke run for 2 yds to the ARIZ 43Similar
Q2 15:00
3RD & 8
OWN 43
0
37.3%
Noah Fifita pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 12:50
4TH & 8
OWN 43
0
40.4%
Kyle Ostendorp punt for 38 ydsSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
COLODrive 9PUNT
5 plays · 3 yds · 1:5440% → 40%
Q2 12:50
1ST & 10
OWN 19
-5
39.5%
Shedeur Sanders pass complete to Anthony Hankerson for a loss of 5 yards to the COLO 14Similar
Q2 12:50
2ND & 15
OWN 14
-5
39.3%
SANDERS, Shedeur pass up the middle complete for 13 yards to HUNTER, Travis caught at the COL25 and advanced to the COL27 (IRBY, Martell). PENALTY COL Ineligible Receiver Downfield on Pass on CHRISTIAN-LICHTENHAN, Gerard enforced 5 yards from the COL14 to the COL9 [NHSG]. NO PLAY (replay the down).Similar
Q2 12:50
2ND & 20
OWN 9
+13
39.2%
Shedeur Sanders pass complete to Xavier Weaver for 13 yds to the COLO 22Similar
Q2 12:50
3RD & 7
OWN 22
0
39.0%
Shedeur Sanders pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 10:56
4TH & 7
OWN 22
0
40.3%
Mark Vassett punt for 40 yds , Jacob Cowing returns for no gain to the ARIZ 28Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ARIZDrive 10TD
5 plays · 72 yds · 2:2358% → 69%
Q2 10:56
1ST & 10
OWN 28
+49
41.8%
Jonah Coleman run for 49 yds to the COLO 23 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 10:56
1ST & 10
OPP 23
+17
38.8%
Noah Fifita pass complete to Tetairoa McMillan for 17 yds to the COLO 6 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 10:56
1ST & GOAL
OPP 6
0
38.7%
DJ Williams run for no gain to the COLO 6Similar
Q2 10:56
2ND & GOAL
OPP 6
0
38.7%
Noah Fifita pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 8:33
1ST & GOAL
OPP 3
+3
31.5%
Noah Fifita pass complete to Jacob Cowing for 3 yds for a TD (Tyler Loop KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
COLODrive 11TD
13 plays · 75 yds · 5:2037% → 54%
Q2 8:33
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+15
36.6%
HANKERSON, Anthony rush to the left for a loss of 3 yards to the COL22 (SAVEA, Tiaoalii). PENALTY ARI Face mask on SAVEA, Tiaoalii enforced 15 yards from the COL25 to the COL40 and results in automatic 1ST DOWN [NHSG]. NO PLAY (replay the down).Similar
Q2 8:33
1ST & 10
OWN 40
0
37.9%
Colorado Penalty, Intentional Grounding (Shedeur Sanders) to the COLO 29Similar
Q2 8:33
2ND & 22
OWN 28
+15
36.3%
SANDERS, Shedeur pass deep to the right incomplete intended for HUNTER, Travis thrown to the ARI43. PENALTY ARI Pass Interference on STUKES, Treydan enforced 15 yards to the COL43 and results in automatic 1ST DOWN [NHSG]. NO PLAY (replay the down).Similar
Q2 8:33
1ST & 10
OWN 43
+4
38.1%
Anthony Hankerson run for 4 yds to the COLO 47Similar
Q2 8:33
2ND & 6
OWN 47
+9
38.4%
Shedeur Sanders pass complete to Anthony Hankerson for 9 yds to the ARIZ 44 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 8:33
1ST & 10
OPP 44
0
38.8%
Anthony Hankerson run for no gain to the ARIZ 44Similar
Q2 8:33
2ND & 10
OPP 44
+17
38.6%
Shedeur Sanders pass complete to Jimmy Horn Jr. for 17 yds to the ARIZ 27 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 8:33
1ST & 10
OPP 27
0
39.6%
Dylan Edwards run for no gain to the ARIZ 27Similar
Q2 8:33
2ND & 10
OPP 27
0
39.5%
Shedeur Sanders pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 4:37
1ST & GOAL
OPP 1
0
42.8%
Shedeur Sanders run for no gain to the ARIZ 1Similar
Q2 4:27
3RD & 10
OPP 27
+26
41.3%
Shedeur Sanders pass complete to Xavier Weaver for 26 yds to the ARIZ 1 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 3:13
2ND & GOAL
OPP 1
+1
54.0%
Sy'veon Wilkerson run for 1 yd for a TD (Alejandro Mata KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ARIZDrive 12FG
7 plays · 25 yds · 1:3150% → 52%
Q2 3:03
1ST & 10
OWN 40
0
50.0%
Noah Fifita pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 3:03
2ND & 10
OWN 40
+15
50.4%
Colorado Penalty, Roughing the Passer on ALSTON, Taijh enforced (Taijh Alston) to the COLO 32 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 3:03
1ST & 10
OPP 32
0
46.5%
Noah Fifita pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 3:03
2ND & 10
OPP 32
0
46.6%
Jonah Coleman run for no gain to the COLO 32Similar
Q2 1:37
3RD & 10
OPP 32
-3
48.8%
Noah Fifita pass complete to Jonah Coleman for a loss of 3 yards to the COLO 35Similar
Q2 1:32
4TH & 13
OPP 35
+52
48.2%
Tyler Loop 52 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
COLODrive 13FG
9 plays · 54 yds · 1:3246% → 53%
Q2 1:32
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+2
45.6%
Dylan Edwards run for 2 yds to the COLO 27Similar
Q2 1:32
2ND & 8
OWN 27
+12
45.6%
Shedeur Sanders pass complete to Michael Harrison for 12 yds to the COLO 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 1:32
1ST & 10
OWN 39
+47
47.0%
Shedeur Sanders pass complete to Travis Hunter for 47 yds to the ARIZ 14 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 1:32
1ST & 10
OPP 14
-10
49.1%
SANDERS, Shedeur pass short to the right incomplete intended for EDWARDS, Dylan thrown to the ARI10. PENALTY COL Holding on CHRISTIAN-LICHTENHAN, Gerard enforced 10 yards from the ARI14 to the ARI24 [NHSG]. NO PLAY (replay the down).Similar
Q2 1:32
1ST & 20
OPP 24
0
48.9%
Shedeur Sanders pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 1:32
2ND & 20
OPP 24
0
48.2%
Shedeur Sanders pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 0:04
3RD & 20
OPP 24
+3
48.8%
Shedeur Sanders run for 3 yds to the ARIZ 21Similar
Q2 0:00
4TH & 17
OPP 21
+39
52.9%
Alejandro Mata 39 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ARIZDrive 14TD
5 plays · 75 yds · 2:1949% → 66%
Q3 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+2
51.4%
Jonah Coleman run for 2 yds to the ARIZ 27Similar
Q3 15:00
2ND & 8
OWN 27
+7
51.1%
Noah Fifita pass complete to Tetairoa McMillan for 7 yds to the ARIZ 34Similar
Q3 15:00
3RD & 1
OWN 34
+54
50.5%
Jonah Coleman run for 54 yds to the COLO 12 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 12
+10
46.2%
DJ Williams run for 10 yds to the COLO 2 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 12:41
1ST & GOAL
OPP 2
+2
33.6%
Noah Fifita pass complete to Tetairoa McMillan for 2 yds for a TD (Tyler Loop KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
COLODrive 15PUNT
7 plays · 20 yds · 3:2542% → 45%
Q3 12:41
1ST & 10
OWN 30
+4
41.6%
Shedeur Sanders pass complete to Dylan Edwards for 4 yds to the COLO 34Similar
Q3 12:41
2ND & 6
OWN 34
+2
42.6%
Dylan Edwards run for 2 yds to the COLO 36Similar
Q3 12:41
3RD & 4
OWN 36
+5
41.9%
Shedeur Sanders pass complete to Dylan Edwards for 5 yds to the COLO 41 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 12:41
1ST & 10
OWN 41
0
43.5%
Shedeur Sanders pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 12:41
2ND & 10
OWN 41
+2
42.5%
Sy'veon Wilkerson run for 2 yds to the COLO 43Similar
Q3 12:41
3RD & 8
OWN 43
+7
41.9%
Shedeur Sanders run for 7 yds to the 50 yard lineSimilar
Q3 9:16
4TH & 1
50
0
44.7%
Mark Vassett punt for 48 ydsSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ARIZDrive 16PUNT
7 plays · 12 yds · 2:0759% → 50%
Q3 9:16
1ST & 10
OWN 2
0
40.7%
Noah Fifita pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 9:16
2ND & 10
OWN 2
+19
41.1%
Noah Fifita pass complete to Montana Lemonious-Craig for 19 yds to the ARIZ 21 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 9:16
1ST & 10
OWN 21
+1
40.1%
Rayshon Luke run for 1 yd to the ARIZ 22Similar
Q3 9:16
2ND & 9
OWN 22
0
40.3%
Arizona Penalty, Unsportsmanlike Conduct (Treydan Stukes) to the ARIZ 11Similar
Q3 9:16
3RD & 20
OWN 11
+3
41.9%
Jonah Coleman run for 3 yds to the ARIZ 14Similar
Q3 7:09
4TH & 17
OWN 14
0
44.3%
Kyle Ostendorp punt for 43 ydsSimilar
Q3 7:09
1ST & 10
OPP 35
-5
50.0%
SANDERS, Shedeur pass deep to the right incomplete intended for WEAVER, Xavier thrown to the ARI18. PENALTY Before the snap, COL Illegal Formation enforced 5 yards from the ARI35 to the ARI40. NO PLAY (replay the down).Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
COLODrive 17TD
7 plays · 35 yds · 3:4747% → 72%
Q3 7:09
1ST & 15
OPP 40
+7
47.3%
Shedeur Sanders pass complete to Travis Hunter for 7 yds to the ARIZ 33Similar
Q3 7:09
2ND & 8
OPP 33
+1
50.0%
Dylan Edwards run for 1 yd to the ARIZ 32Similar
Q3 7:09
3RD & 7
OPP 32
0
48.4%
Shedeur Sanders pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 7:09
4TH & 7
OPP 32
+11
45.6%
Shedeur Sanders run for 11 yds to the ARIZ 21 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 7:09
1ST & 10
OPP 21
-5
50.0%
Shedeur Sanders sacked by Isaiah Ward for a loss of 5 yards to the ARIZ 26Similar
Q3 7:09
2ND & 15
OPP 26
0
48.2%
Shedeur Sanders pass complete to Dylan Edwards for no gain to the ARIZ 26Similar
Q3 3:22
1ST & GOAL
OPP 7
+7
71.8%
Shedeur Sanders pass complete to Michael Harrison for 7 yds for a TD (Alejandro Mata KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ARIZDrive 18TD
7 plays · 75 yds · 3:2736% → 62%
Q3 3:22
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+15
63.9%
FIFITA, Noah pass to the left incomplete intended for MCMILLAN, Tetairoa broken up by HUNTER, Travis at the ARI40. PENALTY COL Pass Interference on HUNTER, Travis enforced 15 yards to the ARI40 and results in automatic 1ST DOWN. NO PLAY (replay the down).Similar
Q3 3:22
1ST & 10
OWN 40
-3
61.8%
DJ Williams run for a loss of 3 yards to the ARIZ 37Similar
Q3 3:22
2ND & 13
OWN 37
+26
63.9%
Noah Fifita pass complete to Tetairoa McMillan for 26 yds to the COLO 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 3:22
1ST & 10
OPP 37
+19
59.7%
Noah Fifita pass complete to Tetairoa McMillan for 19 yds to the COLO 18 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 3:22
1ST & 10
OPP 18
+3
57.0%
DJ Williams run for 3 yds to the COLO 15Similar
Q3 3:22
2ND & 7
OPP 15
+8
57.0%
Noah Fifita pass complete to Jacob Cowing for 8 yds to the COLO 7 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 14:55
1ST & GOAL
OPP 7
+7
38.2%
DJ Williams run for 7 yds for a TD (Tyler Loop KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
COLODrive 19PUNT
7 plays · 4 yds · 2:4649% → 47%
Q4 14:55
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+9
48.8%
Shedeur Sanders pass complete to Xavier Weaver for 9 yds to the COLO 34Similar
Q4 14:55
2ND & 1
OWN 34
+4
51.7%
Sy'veon Wilkerson run for 4 yds to the COLO 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 14:55
1ST & 10
OWN 38
-10
50.9%
Shedeur Sanders sacked by DJ Warnell Jr. for a loss of 10 yards to the COLO 28Similar
Q4 14:55
2ND & 20
OWN 28
-5
48.2%
Colorado Penalty, False Start (Van Wells) to the COLO 23Similar
Q4 14:55
2ND & 25
OWN 23
0
48.2%
Shedeur Sanders pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 14:55
3RD & 25
OWN 23
+6
46.3%
Shedeur Sanders pass complete to Sy'veon Wilkerson for 6 yds to the COLO 29Similar
Q4 12:09
4TH & 19
OWN 29
0
46.6%
Mark Vassett punt for 45 ydsSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ARIZDrive 20PUNT
5 plays · -13 yds · 2:0555% → 49%
Q4 12:09
1ST & 10
OWN 32
-3
44.8%
Noah Fifita pass complete to Montana Lemonious-Craig for a loss of 3 yards to the ARIZ 29Similar
Q4 12:09
2ND & 13
OWN 29
-5
46.4%
FIFITA, Noah pass short up the middle complete for 5 yards to MCMILLAN, Tetairoa caught at the ARI33 and advanced to the ARI34 (HUNTER, Travis). PENALTY ARI Pass Interference on MCLACHLAN, Tanner enforced half the distance from the goal, 14 yards to the ARI15 [SG]. NO PLAY (replay the down).Similar
Q4 12:09
2ND & 27
OWN 15
+4
46.8%
Noah Fifita pass complete to AJ Jones for 4 yds to the ARIZ 19Similar
Q4 12:09
3RD & 23
OWN 19
0
48.4%
Noah Fifita pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 10:04
4TH & 23
OWN 19
0
51.2%
Kyle Ostendorp punt for 46 ydsSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
COLODrive 21PUNT
4 plays · 9 yds · 1:4053% → 54%
Q4 10:04
1ST & 10
OWN 35
+8
52.5%
Anthony Hankerson run for 8 yds to the COLO 43Similar
Q4 10:04
2ND & 2
OWN 43
+1
56.6%
Anthony Hankerson run for 1 yd to the COLO 44Similar
Q4 10:04
3RD & 1
OWN 44
0
55.2%
Shedeur Sanders pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 8:24
4TH & 1
OWN 44
0
54.2%
Mark Vassett punt for 48 ydsSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ARIZDrive 22PUNT
5 plays · 8 yds · 1:1851% → 48%
Q4 8:24
1ST & 10
OWN 8
0
48.9%
DJ Williams run for no gain to the ARIZ 8Similar
Q4 7:22
2ND & 10
OWN 8
+8
50.3%
Noah Fifita pass complete to Tetairoa McMillan for 8 yds to the ARIZ 16Similar
Q4 7:22
3RD & 2
OWN 16
0
49.9%
Noah Fifita pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 7:06
4TH & 2
OWN 16
0
52.1%
Kyle Ostendorp punt for 49 ydsSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
COLODrive 23MISSED FG
7 plays · 26 yds · 2:0960% → 57%
Q4 7:06
1ST & 10
OWN 49
+23
59.9%
Shedeur Sanders pass complete to Xavier Weaver for 23 yds to the ARIZ 28 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 7:06
1ST & 10
OPP 28
+4
63.1%
Anthony Hankerson run for 4 yds to the ARIZ 24Similar
Q4 7:06
2ND & 6
OPP 24
0
63.1%
Shedeur Sanders pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 7:06
3RD & 6
OPP 24
-5
60.8%
Colorado Penalty, False Start (Kareem Harden) to the ARIZ 29Similar
Q4 5:04
3RD & 11
OPP 29
+4
59.4%
Shedeur Sanders run for 4 yds to the ARIZ 25Similar
Q4 4:57
4TH & 7
OPP 25
+44
56.6%
Alejandro Mata 44 yd FG MISSEDSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ARIZDrive 24FG
15 plays · 67 yds · 4:5753% → 94%
Q4 4:57
1ST & 10
OWN 26
+6
47.5%
Noah Fifita pass complete to Tetairoa McMillan for 6 yds to the ARIZ 32Similar
Q4 4:57
2ND & 4
OWN 32
+21
44.9%
Jonah Coleman run for 21 yds to the COLO 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 4:57
1ST & 10
OPP 47
+24
41.6%
Jonah Coleman run for 24 yds to the COLO 23 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 4:57
1ST & 10
OPP 23
+10
38.9%
Noah Fifita pass complete to Tetairoa McMillan for 10 yds to the COLO 13 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 4:57
1ST & 10
OPP 13
+5
38.8%
DJ Williams run for 5 yds to the COLO 8Similar
Q4 1:35
2ND & 5
OPP 8
+2
36.9%
Noah Fifita pass complete to AJ Jones for 2 yds to the COLO 6Similar
Q4 1:04
3RD & 3
OPP 6
+5
39.1%
Noah Fifita pass complete to Montana Lemonious-Craig for 5 yds to the COLO 1 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 0:59
1ST & GOAL
OPP 1
-2
37.2%
Noah Fifita run for a loss of 2 yards to the COLO 3Similar
Q4 0:59
2ND & GOAL
OPP 3
0
37.0%
Kneel down by FIFITA, Noah at COL5 (team loss of 2).Similar
Q4 0:02
3RD & GOAL
OPP 5
0
40.1%
Kneel down by FIFITA, Noah at COL7 (team loss of 2).Similar
Q4 0:00
4TH & GOAL
OPP 7
+24
6.4%
Tyler Loop 24 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
FG · Q4 0:00
Tyler Loop 24 yd FG GOOD
-33.7
TD · Q3 3:22
Shedeur Sanders pass complete to Michael Harrison for 7 yds for a TD (Alejandro Mata KICK)
+23.6
TD · Q4 14:55
DJ Williams run for 7 yds for a TD (Tyler Loop KICK)
-18.8
YardLine · model v10Model estimate - not betting advice · Data provided by CollegeFootballData.com