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WSU

Washington State 39 at California 42

CAL
2023 · Week 11 · Nov 11, 2023 · California Memorial Stadium
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Win probability · CAL
modelCAL aheadWSU aheadconfidence bandkey playCAL scoreWSU score
0%25%50%75%100%Q1Q2Q3Q4TDTDTDTDTDTDTDTDTDFGFGTDTDTDTDTDEnd of Game
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q3 2:43 · Lachlan Wilson punt for 35 yds, fair catch by Isaiah Hamilton at the WSU 28
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Home team on offenseScore diff ÷ offense timeoutsGarbage-time factorScore differentialDefense timeoutsTimeout advantage
+28.0+14.00−14.0−28.0Q1Q2Q3Q4Play 140Home team on offense+7.5Score diff ÷ offense timeouts+2.2Garbage-time factor+2.7Score differential+0.7Defense timeouts−0.1Timeout advantage−4.0
This game in five plays
  1. TD · Q2 12:14: Brian Driscoll 0 Yd Run (Mateen Bhaghani Kick) — CAL win probability +9.2 pts (now 69%) (top driver: CAL has the ball).
  2. TD · Q2 0:24: John Mateer run for 5 yds for a TD (Dean Janikowski KICK) — WSU win probability +9.9 pts (now 36%) (top driver: Deficit strained by the offense's own timeouts).
  3. TD · Q4 11:14: Jaydn Ott run for 5 yds for a TD (Mateen Bhaghani KICK) — CAL win probability +22.5 pts (now 93%) (top driver: CAL has the ball).
  4. TD · Q4 9:26: Nohl Williams 52 Yd Fumble Return (Mateen Bhaghani Kick) — CAL win probability +9.7 pts (now 96%) (top driver: WSU has the ball).
  5. TD · Q4 5:23: Cameron Ward pass complete to Djouvensky Schlenbaker for 5 yds for a TD (Dean Janikowski KICK) — WSU win probability +33.0 pts (now 45%) (top driver: Deficit strained by the offense's own timeouts).
Was that the right call?

Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works

Fourth downs
CAL made the numbers' call on 5 of 6WSU made the numbers' call on 8 of 9
  1. Q1 12:19WSU 4th & 1 at CAL 46, tied
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 43.9% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    43.9%
    70% to convert
    Field goal
    43.7%−0.3
    23% to make
    Punt
    43.8%−0.2
    average punt
  2. Q1 11:18WSU 4th & 8 at WSU 24, down 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 42.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    42.1%−0.1
    32% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    42.2%
    average punt
  3. Q1 4:45WSU 4th & 1 at WSU 34, down 14
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 35.8% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    36.3%
    71% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    Punt
    35.7%−0.6
    average punt
  4. Q2 6:22CAL 4th & 5 at CAL 45, up 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 66.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    66.0%−0.2
    41% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    66.2%
    average punt
  5. Q2 3:11CAL 4th & 4 at WSU 13, up 7
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 68.3% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    67.9%
    46% to convert
    Field goal
    67.5%−0.4
    85% to make
    Punt
    62.7%−5.2
    average punt
  6. Q2 0:39WSU 4th & 1 at CAL 7, down 14
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 23.2% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    23.7%
    70% to convert
    Field goal
    22.6%−1.1
    91% to make
    Punt
    18.4%−5.4
    average punt
  7. Q3 12:33WSU 4th & 4 at CAL 11, down 7
    Close callKicked a field goal · 32.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    32.2%
    45% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    31.8%−0.4
    87% to make
    Punt
    21.8%−10.4
    average punt
  8. Q3 9:55CAL 4th & 30 at CAL 27, up 4
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 64.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    61.6%−4.4
    6% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    66.0%
    average punt
  9. Q3 6:19WSU 4th & 17 at CAL 48, down 4
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 33.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    32.0%−2.5
    14% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    34.5%
    average punt
  10. Q3 2:43CAL 4th & 2 at CAL 37, up 4
    Numbers favored go for it by 1.1 ptsPunted · 68.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    69.0%
    57% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    67.9%−1.1
    average punt
  11. Q4 12:56WSU 4th & 22 at CAL 25, down 4
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 30.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    27.7%−4.4
    7% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    32.0%
    66% to make
    Punt
    21.3%−10.7
    average punt
  12. Q4 3:42CAL 4th & 3 at CAL 32, up 3
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 77.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    77.7%−1.3
    52% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    79.0%
    average punt
  13. Q4 3:42WSU 4th & 1 at WSU 43, down 3
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 32.9% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    31.3%
    70% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    Punt
    23.6%−7.7
    average punt
  14. Q4 0:50WSU 4th & 6 at CAL 31, down 3
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 22.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    17.0%−8.5
    40% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    25.5%
    54% to make
    Punt
    7.7%−17.8
    average punt
  15. Q4 0:22CAL 4th & 3 at CAL 38, up 3
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 90.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    87.4%−1.6
    52% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    89.0%
    average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
CAL made the numbers' call on 6 of 6WSU made the numbers' call on 4 of 5
  1. Q1 12:19CAL Touchdown, up 6 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    57.1%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    57.1%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  2. Q1 6:38CAL Touchdown, up 13 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    62.9%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    62.9%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  3. Q1 0:17WSU Touchdown, down 8 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    38.1%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    38.0%−0.1
    45% to convert
  4. Q2 12:14CAL Touchdown, up 13 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    70.0%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    70.0%−0.1
    45% to convert
  5. Q2 8:46WSU Touchdown, down 8 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    35.4%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    35.3%−0.1
    45% to convert
  6. Q2 3:11CAL Touchdown, up 13 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    76.7%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    76.6%−0.1
    45% to convert
  7. Q2 0:24WSU Touchdown, down 8 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    28.9%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    28.8%−0.1
    45% to convert
  8. Q4 11:14CAL Touchdown, up 10 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    87.1%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    87.0%−0.1
    45% to convert
  9. Q4 9:26CAL Touchdown, up 17 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    96.9%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    96.7%−0.1
    45% to convert
  10. Q4 7:33WSU Touchdown, down 12 before the try
    Close callWent for two · converted
    Kick
    8.0%
    97% to make
    Go for twoTheir call
    8.0%−0.1
    45% to convert
  11. Q4 5:23WSU Touchdown, down 4 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    24.5%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    22.2%−2.3
    45% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chart
WSUDrive 1FUMBLE RETURN TD
8 plays · 26 yds · 2:4150% → 49%
Q1 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 25
0
49.9%
Cameron Ward pass incomplete to Kyle WilliamsSimilar
Q1 15:00
2ND & 10
OWN 25
+2
49.9%
Nakia Watson run for 2 yds to the WSU 27Similar
Q1 15:00
3RD & 8
OWN 27
+18
49.9%
Cameron Ward pass complete to Lincoln Victor for 18 yds to the WSU 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 45
0
49.9%
Cameron Ward pass incomplete to Tsion NunnallySimilar
Q1 15:00
2ND & 10
OWN 45
+7
49.9%
Cameron Ward run for 7 yds to the CAL 48Similar
Q1 15:00
3RD & 3
OPP 48
+2
49.9%
Djouvensky Schlenbaker run for 2 yds to the CAL 46Similar
Q1 12:19
4TH & 1
OPP 46
+51
51.2%
Cade Uluave 51 Yd Fumble Return (Michael Luckhurst Kick)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WSUDrive 2PUNT
5 plays · 2 yds · 0:5749% → 48%
Q1 12:15
1ST & 10
OWN 22
+2
51.4%
Cameron Ward pass complete to Nakia Watson for 2 yds to the WSU 24Similar
Q1 12:15
2ND & 8
OWN 24
0
51.4%
Cameron Ward pass incomplete to Billy Riviere IIISimilar
Q1 12:15
3RD & 8
OWN 24
0
51.5%
Cameron Ward pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 11:18
4TH & 8
OWN 24
0
52.2%
Nick Haberer punt for 41 yds, fair catch by Jeremiah Hunter at the CAL 35Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CALDrive 3TD
13 plays · 65 yds · 4:4052% → 59%
Q1 11:18
1ST & 10
OWN 35
0
52.1%
Fernando Mendoza pass incomplete to Taj DavisSimilar
Q1 11:18
2ND & 10
OWN 35
0
52.1%
Fernando Mendoza pass incomplete to Jack EndriesSimilar
Q1 11:18
3RD & 10
OWN 35
+25
51.9%
Fernando Mendoza run for 10 yds to the WSU 45 for a 1ST down Washington State Penalty, Face Mask (15 yards) (Nusi Malani) to the WSU 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 11:18
1ST & 10
OPP 40
+11
52.4%
Jaydn Ott run for 11 yds to the WSU 29 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 11:18
1ST & 10
OPP 29
+1
52.5%
Jaydn Ott run for 1 yd to the WSU 28Similar
Q1 11:18
2ND & 9
OPP 28
+15
52.5%
Fernando Mendoza pass complete to Mavin Anderson for 15 yds to the WSU 13 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 11:18
1ST & 10
OPP 13
+5
52.4%
Jaydn Ott run for 5 yds to the WSU 8Similar
Q1 11:18
2ND & 5
OPP 8
+2
52.4%
Jaydn Ott run for 2 yds to the WSU 10Similar
Q1 11:18
3RD & 7
OPP 10
+7
52.3%
Fernando Mendoza pass complete to Justin Williams-Thomas for 7 yds to the WSU 3 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 11:18
1ST & GOAL
OPP 3
+2
52.5%
Fernando Mendoza run for 2 yds to the WSU 1 Fernando Mendoza fumbled, recovered by CAL Fernando Mendoza No Huddle-Shotgun Mendoza,Fernando rush middle for 2 yards gain to the WSU01 fumbled by Mendoza,Fernando at WSU06 recovered by CAL Mendoza,Fernando at WSU05 (Gushiken,Kapena; Jackson,Brennan).Similar
Q1 11:18
2ND & GOAL
OPP 1
-5
52.4%
PENALTY CAL False Start 5 yards from WSU01 to WSU06. NO PLAY.Similar
Q1 11:18
2ND & GOAL
OPP 6
0
52.4%
Jaydn Ott run for no gain to the WSU 6Similar
Q1 6:38
3RD & GOAL
OPP 6
+6
59.2%
Fernando Mendoza pass complete to Jack Endries for 6 yds for a TD (Mateen Bhaghani KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WSUDrive 4TD
16 plays · 75 yds · 6:2142% → 45%
Q1 6:38
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+7
57.8%
Djouvensky Schlenbaker run for 7 yds to the WSU 32Similar
Q1 6:38
2ND & 3
OWN 32
-2
57.5%
Cameron Ward sacked by Kaleb Elarms-Orr for a loss of 2 yards to the WSU 30Similar
Q1 6:38
3RD & 5
OWN 30
+4
57.8%
Cameron Ward run for 4 yds to the WSU 34Similar
Q1 4:45
4TH & 1
OWN 34
+1
59.5%
Cameron Ward pass complete to for 1 yd to the WSU 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 4:45
1ST & 10
OWN 35
+7
59.3%
Cameron Ward pass complete to Lincoln Victor for 7 yds to the WSU 42Similar
Q1 4:45
2ND & 3
OWN 42
-5
58.8%
PENALTY WSU False Start (Williams,Kyle) 5 yards from WSU42 to WSU37. NO PLAY.Similar
Q1 4:45
2ND & 8
OWN 37
+12
59.2%
Cameron Ward pass complete to Kyle Williams for 12 yds to the WSU 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 4:45
1ST & 10
OWN 49
+2
58.8%
Djouvensky Schlenbaker run for 2 yds to the CAL 49Similar
Q1 4:45
2ND & 8
OPP 49
+19
58.8%
Cameron Ward pass complete to Josh Kelly for 19 yds to the CAL 30 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 4:45
1ST & 10
OPP 30
+16
58.2%
Cameron Ward pass complete to Josh Kelly for 16 yds to the CAL 14 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 4:45
1ST & 10
OPP 14
+4
58.0%
Nakia Watson run for 4 yds to the CAL 10Similar
Q1 4:45
2ND & 6
OPP 10
0
58.0%
Cameron Ward pass incomplete to Cooper MathersSimilar
Q1 4:45
3RD & 6
OPP 10
+7
58.4%
Cameron Ward run for 7 yds to the CAL 3 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 4:45
1ST & GOAL
OPP 3
0
58.0%
Cameron Ward pass incomplete to Lincoln VictorSimilar
Q1 0:17
2ND & GOAL
OPP 3
+3
54.9%
Cameron Ward run for 3 yds for a TD (Dean Janikowski KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CALDrive 5TD
12 plays · 84 yds · 2:4658% → 69%
Q1 0:00
1ST & 10
OWN 16
+2
58.0%
Jaydn Ott run for 2 yds to the CAL 18Similar
Q2 15:00
2ND & 8
OWN 18
+10
57.9%
No Huddle-Shotgun Mendoza,Fernando pass incomplete short right to Young,Monroe PENALTY WSU Holding (Lampkin,Cam) 10 yards from CAL18 to CAL28, 1ST DOWN. NO PLAY.Similar
Q2 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 28
+2
58.1%
Jaydn Ott run for 2 yds to the CAL 30Similar
Q2 15:00
2ND & 8
OWN 30
+14
58.0%
Fernando Mendoza pass complete to Jack Endries for 14 yds to the CAL 44 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 44
+36
59.1%
Fernando Mendoza pass complete to Jeremiah Hunter for 36 yds to the WSU 20 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 20
+9
59.4%
Jaydn Ott run for 9 yds to the WSU 11Similar
Q2 15:00
2ND & 1
OPP 11
0
59.4%
Jaydn Ott run for no gain to the WSU 11Similar
Q2 15:00
3RD & 1
OPP 11
+5
58.9%
No Huddle Ott,Jaydn rush left for 3 yards loss to the WSU14 (Roff,Quinn) PENALTY WSU Offside (Roff,Quinn) 5 yards from WSU11 to WSU06, 1ST DOWN. NO PLAY.Similar
Q2 15:00
1ST & GOAL
OPP 6
0
59.4%
Fernando Mendoza pass incomplete to Jack EndriesSimilar
Q2 12:14
2ND & GOAL
OPP 6
0
68.7%
Brian Driscoll 0 Yd Run (Mateen Bhaghani Kick)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WSUDrive 6TD
14 plays · 69 yds · 3:2236% → 44%
Q2 12:08
1ST & 10
OWN 31
+15
63.7%
Cameron Ward pass complete to Cooper Mathers for 15 yds to the WSU 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 12:08
1ST & 10
OWN 46
0
63.3%
Cameron Ward pass incomplete to Lincoln VictorSimilar
Q2 12:08
2ND & 10
OWN 46
0
63.6%
Cameron Ward pass interceptedSimilar
Q2 12:08
2ND & 10
OWN 46
+5
63.6%
No Huddle-Shotgun Ward,Cameron pass intercepted by Hearns III,Lu-Magia at CAL05 Hearns III,Lu-Magia return 28 yards to the CAL33 (Victor,Lincoln) PENALTY CAL Illegal Substitution 5 yards from WSU46 to CAL49. NO PLAY.Similar
Q2 12:08
2ND & 5
OPP 49
+7
62.9%
Cameron Ward pass complete to Leo Pulalasi for 7 yds to the CAL 42 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 12:08
1ST & 10
OPP 42
0
62.6%
Cameron Ward pass incomplete to Lincoln VictorSimilar
Q2 12:08
2ND & 10
OPP 42
+4
62.8%
Cameron Ward pass complete to Lincoln Victor for 4 yds to the CAL 38Similar
Q2 12:08
3RD & 6
OPP 38
+10
62.8%
No Huddle-Shotgun Ward,Cameron pass incomplete short left to Pulalasi,Leo PENALTY CAL Holding (Earby,Jeremiah) 10 yards from CAL38 to CAL28, 1ST DOWN. NO PLAY.Similar
Q2 12:08
1ST & 10
OPP 28
0
61.7%
Cameron Ward pass incomplete to Lincoln VictorSimilar
Q2 12:08
2ND & 10
OPP 28
+5
62.1%
Leo Pulalasi run for 5 yds to the CAL 23Similar
Q2 12:08
3RD & 5
OPP 23
+10
62.3%
Cameron Ward run for 10 yds to the CAL 13 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 8:46
1ST & 10
OPP 13
+13
56.3%
Cameron Ward pass complete to Cooper Mathers for 13 yds for a TD (Dean Janikowski KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CALDrive 7PUNT
9 plays · 20 yds · 2:2460% → 61%
Q2 8:46
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+1
60.1%
Jaydn Ott run for 1 yd to the CAL 26Similar
Q2 8:46
2ND & 9
OWN 26
+14
59.8%
Fernando Mendoza pass complete to Jack Endries for 14 yds to the CAL 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 8:46
1ST & 10
OWN 40
+1
61.6%
Fernando Mendoza run for 1 yd to the CAL 39Similar
Q2 8:46
2ND & 11
OWN 39
-10
60.8%
California Penalty, Illegal Block (-10 Yards) to the CAL 30Similar
Q2 8:46
2ND & 20
OWN 30
+10
59.8%
Fernando Mendoza pass complete to Jack Endries for 10 yds to the CAL 40Similar
Q2 8:46
3RD & 10
OWN 40
+5
60.1%
No Huddle-Shotgun Mendoza,Fernando pass incomplete short middle to Endries,Jack PENALTY WSU Offside (Al-Uqdah,Taariq) 5 yards from CAL40 to CAL45. NO PLAY.Similar
Q2 8:46
3RD & 5
OWN 45
0
61.0%
Fernando Mendoza pass incomplete to Jaydn OttSimilar
Q2 6:22
4TH & 5
OWN 45
0
61.1%
Lachlan Wilson punt for 55 yds for a touchbackSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WSUDrive 8FUMBLE
4 plays · -1 yds · 1:2038% → 38%
Q2 6:22
1ST & 10
OWN 20
-8
61.8%
Cameron Ward sacked by Jaedon Roberts for a loss of 8 yards to the WSU 12Similar
Q2 6:22
2ND & 18
OWN 12
+25
62.4%
Cameron Ward pass complete to Kyle Williams for 25 yds to the WSU 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 5:02
1ST & 10
OWN 37
-18
61.6%
Cameron Ward sacked by David Reese for a loss of 18 yards to the WSU 19 Cameron Ward fumbled, recovered by CAL Cade Uluave , return for 0 yardsSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CALDrive 9TD
5 plays · 19 yds · 1:5169% → 75%
Q2 5:02
1ST & 10
OPP 19
+2
69.1%
Jaydn Ott run for 2 yds to the WSU 21Similar
Q2 5:02
2ND & 12
OPP 21
0
68.9%
Fernando Mendoza pass complete to Jaydn Ott for no gain to the WSU 21Similar
Q2 5:02
3RD & 12
OPP 21
+8
68.2%
Fernando Mendoza pass complete to Jeremiah Hunter for 8 yds to the WSU 13Similar
Q2 3:11
4TH & 4
OPP 13
+13
75.2%
Fernando Mendoza pass complete to Jaydn Ott for 13 yds for a TD (Mateen Bhaghani KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WSUDrive 10TD
15 plays · 70 yds · 2:4329% → 36%
Q2 3:07
1ST & 10
OWN 30
+7
71.5%
Leo Pulalasi run for 7 yds to the WSU 37Similar
Q2 3:07
2ND & 3
OWN 37
+11
70.7%
Leo Pulalasi run for 11 yds to the WSU 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 3:07
1ST & 10
OWN 48
+12
70.4%
Leo Pulalasi run for 12 yds to the CAL 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 3:07
1ST & 10
OPP 40
+5
69.7%
Leo Pulalasi run for 5 yds to the CAL 35Similar
Q2 3:07
2ND & 5
OPP 35
+19
68.6%
Cameron Ward pass complete to Lincoln Victor for 19 yds to the CAL 16 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 3:07
1ST & 10
OPP 16
0
68.6%
Leo Pulalasi run for no gain to the CAL 16Similar
Q2 0:51
2ND & 10
OPP 16
0
71.4%
Cameron Ward pass incomplete to Josh KellySimilar
Q2 0:51
3RD & 10
OPP 16
+9
72.8%
Cameron Ward pass complete to Kyle Williams for 9 yds to the CAL 7Similar
Q2 0:39
4TH & 1
OPP 7
+2
74.3%
Leo Pulalasi run for 2 yds to the CAL 5 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:34
1ST & GOAL
OPP 5
0
74.4%
Cameron Ward pass incomplete to Lincoln VictorSimilar
Q2 0:24
2ND & GOAL
OPP 5
+5
64.5%
John Mateer run for 5 yds for a TD (Dean Janikowski KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CALDrive 11END OF HALF
2 plays · -1 yds · 0:0069% → 69%
Q2 0:00
1ST & 10
OWN 25
-1
68.9%
F. Mendoza takes a kneeSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CALDrive 12FUMBLE
4 plays · -8 yds · 0:5367% → 67%
Q3 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 25
-10
66.8%
No Huddle-Shotgun Mendoza,Fernando pass complete short middle to Ott,Jaydn for 1 yard loss to the CAL24 (Al-Uqdah,Taariq), out of bounds PENALTY CAL Holding (Young,Monroe) 10 yards from CAL25 to CAL15. NO PLAY.Similar
Q3 15:00
1ST & 20
OWN 15
+5
66.5%
Fernando Mendoza pass complete to Jaydn Ott for 5 yds to the CAL 20Similar
Q3 14:07
2ND & 15
OWN 20
-3
66.8%
Fernando Mendoza sacked by Brennan Jackson for a loss of 3 yards to the CAL 17 Fernando Mendoza fumbled, recovered by WSU Ron Stone Jr. , return for 0 yardsSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WSUDrive 13FG
5 plays · 6 yds · 1:3439% → 42%
Q3 14:07
1ST & 10
OPP 17
+7
61.2%
Cameron Ward pass complete to Leo Pulalasi for 7 yds to the CAL 10Similar
Q3 14:07
2ND & 3
OPP 10
0
61.2%
Cameron Ward pass incomplete to Lincoln VictorSimilar
Q3 14:07
3RD & 3
OPP 10
+1
62.8%
Cameron Ward run for 1 yd to the CAL 11Similar
Q3 12:33
4TH & 4
OPP 11
+28
57.8%
Dean Janikowski 28 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CALDrive 14PUNT
8 plays · 2 yds · 2:3860% → 62%
Q3 12:33
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+22
60.4%
Jaydn Ott run for 22 yds to the CAL 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 12:33
1ST & 10
OWN 47
0
63.3%
Fernando Mendoza pass incomplete to Trond GrizzellSimilar
Q3 12:33
2ND & 10
OWN 47
+6
62.8%
Jaydn Ott run for 6 yds to the WSU 47Similar
Q3 12:33
3RD & 4
OPP 47
-10
62.4%
No Huddle-Shotgun Ott,Jaydn rush right for 3 yards gain to the WSU44 (Gusta,David) PENALTY CAL Holding (Alberding,Asher) 10 yards from WSU47 to CAL43. NO PLAY.Similar
Q3 12:33
3RD & 14
OWN 43
-5
59.9%
PENALTY CAL Delay Of Game (Mendoza,Fernando) 5 yards from CAL43 to CAL38. NO PLAY.Similar
Q3 12:33
3RD & 19
OWN 38
-11
59.6%
Fernando Mendoza sacked for a loss of 11 yards to the CAL 27Similar
Q3 9:55
4TH & 30
OWN 27
0
61.6%
Lachlan Wilson punt for 54 ydsSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WSUDrive 15PUNT
9 plays · 33 yds · 3:3638% → 36%
Q3 9:55
1ST & 10
OWN 19
+7
61.8%
Cameron Ward pass complete to Josh Kelly for 7 yds to the WSU 26Similar
Q3 9:55
2ND & 3
OWN 26
+10
60.7%
Cameron Ward pass complete to Josh Kelly for 10 yds to the WSU 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 9:55
1ST & 10
OWN 36
+5
60.3%
Cameron Ward pass complete to Lincoln Victor for 5 yds to the WSU 41Similar
Q3 9:55
2ND & 5
OWN 41
+15
58.3%
California Penalty, Personal Foul (Nate Rutchena) to the CAL 41 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 9:55
1ST & 10
OPP 41
-8
57.2%
Cameron Ward sacked by David Reese for a loss of 8 yards to the CAL 49Similar
Q3 9:55
2ND & 18
OPP 49
-8
60.2%
Cameron Ward sacked by Nate Burrell for a loss of 8 yards to the WSU 43Similar
Q3 9:55
3RD & 26
OWN 43
+9
62.1%
Djouvensky Schlenbaker run for 9 yds to the CAL 48Similar
Q3 6:19
4TH & 17
OPP 48
0
64.0%
Nick Haberer punt for 43 yds, fair catch by Jeremiah Hunter at the CAL 5Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CALDrive 16PUNT
11 plays · 32 yds · 3:3663% → 65%
Q3 6:19
1ST & 10
OWN 5
0
63.3%
Jaydn Ott run for no gain to the CAL 5Similar
Q3 6:19
2ND & 10
OWN 5
+13
62.9%
Jaydn Ott run for 13 yds to the CAL 18 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 6:19
1ST & 10
OWN 18
+8
64.1%
Jaydn Ott run for 8 yds to the CAL 26Similar
Q3 6:19
2ND & 2
OWN 26
-10
65.1%
No Huddle-Shotgun Mendoza,Fernando pass complete short right to Grizzell,Trond for 38 yards to the WSU36 (Wilson,Adrian) PENALTY CAL Holding (Johnson,Jeffrey) 10 yards from CAL26 to CAL16. NO PLAY.Similar
Q3 6:19
2ND & 12
OWN 16
+13
63.6%
Fernando Mendoza pass complete to Taj Davis for 13 yds to the CAL 29 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 3:57
1ST & 10
OWN 29
+8
66.2%
Fernando Mendoza pass complete to Mavin Anderson for 8 yds to the CAL 37Similar
Q3 3:57
2ND & 2
OWN 37
0
68.2%
Jaydn Ott run for no gain to the CAL 37Similar
Q3 3:57
3RD & 2
OWN 37
0
66.9%
Fernando Mendoza pass incomplete to Asher AlberdingSimilar
Q3 2:43
4TH & 2
OWN 37
0
65.4%
Lachlan Wilson punt for 35 yds, fair catch by Isaiah Hamilton at the WSU 28Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WSUDrive 17MISSED FG
14 plays · 47 yds · 4:4738% → 35%
Q3 2:43
1ST & 10
OWN 28
0
61.8%
Cameron Ward pass incomplete to Djouvensky SchlenbakerSimilar
Q3 2:43
2ND & 10
OWN 28
+9
62.9%
Djouvensky Schlenbaker run for 9 yds to the WSU 37Similar
Q3 2:43
3RD & 1
OWN 37
+7
60.6%
Cameron Ward pass complete to Lincoln Victor for 7 yds to the WSU 44 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 2:43
1ST & 10
OWN 44
+4
58.9%
Djouvensky Schlenbaker run for 4 yds to the WSU 48Similar
Q3 2:43
2ND & 6
OWN 48
+15
58.0%
Cameron Ward pass complete to Josh Kelly for 15 yds to the CAL 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 2:43
1ST & 10
OPP 37
0
57.1%
Cameron Ward pass incomplete to Josh KellySimilar
Q3 2:43
2ND & 10
OPP 37
+4
57.2%
Cameron Ward pass complete to Lincoln Victor for 4 yds to the CAL 33Similar
Q3 2:43
3RD & 6
OPP 33
+5
57.6%
No Huddle-Shotgun Schlenbaker,Djouvensky rush middle for 2 yards gain to the CAL31 (Johnson,Brett) PENALTY CAL Offside (Moore,Kaylin) 5 yards from CAL33 to CAL28. NO PLAY.Similar
Q3 0:00
3RD & 1
OPP 28
+15
58.0%
Ward,Cameron pass incomplete short left to Kelly,Josh PENALTY CAL Pass Interference (Williams,Nohl) 15 yards from CAL28 to CAL13, 1ST DOWN. NO PLAY.Similar
Q4 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 13
+4
55.2%
Cameron Ward pass complete to Cooper Mathers for 4 yds to the CAL 9Similar
Q4 15:00
2ND & 6
OPP 9
+1
55.2%
Cameron Ward pass complete to Kyle Williams for 1 yd to the CAL 10Similar
Q4 15:00
3RD & 7
OPP 10
-15
57.2%
No Huddle-Shotgun Ward,Cameron pass complete short left to Williams,Kyle for 8 yards to the CAL02 (McMorris,Patrick; Rutchena,Nate) PENALTY WSU Pass Interference (Pulalasi,Leo) 15 yards from CAL10 to CAL25. NO PLAY.Similar
Q4 15:00
3RD & 22
OPP 25
0
61.1%
Cameron Ward pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 12:56
4TH & 22
OPP 25
+42
65.3%
Dean Janikowski 42 yd FG MISSEDSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CALDrive 18TD
7 plays · 75 yds · 1:4265% → 93%
Q4 12:56
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+5
65.4%
Jaydn Ott run for 5 yds to the CAL 30Similar
Q4 12:56
2ND & 5
OWN 30
+52
66.0%
Jaydn Ott run for 52 yds to the WSU 18 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 12:56
1ST & 10
OPP 18
+3
70.5%
Jaydn Ott run for 3 yds to the WSU 15Similar
Q4 12:56
2ND & 7
OPP 15
+5
70.5%
Washington State Penalty, Face Mask (5 yards) (Jaden Hicks) to the WSU 5 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 11:14
1ST & GOAL
OPP 5
+5
93.0%
Jaydn Ott run for 5 yds for a TD (Mateen Bhaghani KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WSUDrive 19FUMBLE RETURN TD
6 plays · 27 yds · 1:4312% → 4%
Q4 11:09
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+8
87.6%
Leo Pulalasi run for 8 yds to the WSU 33Similar
Q4 11:09
2ND & 2
OWN 33
+2
86.1%
Leo Pulalasi run for 2 yds to the WSU 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 11:09
1ST & 10
OWN 35
+6
86.6%
Cameron Ward pass complete to Billy Riviere III for 6 yds to the WSU 41Similar
Q4 9:26
2ND & 4
OWN 41
+52
96.3%
Nohl Williams 52 Yd Fumble Return (Mateen Bhaghani Kick)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WSUDrive 20TD
8 plays · 70 yds · 1:493% → 13%
Q4 9:22
1ST & 10
OWN 30
+11
96.7%
Leo Pulalasi run for 11 yds to the WSU 41 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 9:22
1ST & 10
OWN 41
+11
96.7%
Cameron Ward pass complete to Josh Kelly for 11 yds to the CAL 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 9:22
1ST & 10
OPP 48
+15
96.6%
Cameron Ward pass complete to Josh Kelly for 15 yds to the CAL 33 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 9:22
1ST & 10
OPP 33
0
96.0%
Cameron Ward pass incomplete to Carlos HernandezSimilar
Q4 9:22
2ND & 10
OPP 33
0
96.2%
Cameron Ward pass incomplete to Lincoln VictorSimilar
Q4 9:22
3RD & 10
OPP 33
+12
96.5%
Cameron Ward pass complete to Kyle Williams for 12 yds to the CAL 21 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 7:33
1ST & 10
OPP 21
+21
87.4%
Josh Kelly 21 Yd pass from Cameron Ward (Cameron Ward Pass to Djouvensky Schlenbaker for Two-Point Conversion)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CALDrive 21FUMBLE
4 plays · 15 yds · 0:5597% → 97%
Q4 7:33
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+6
96.7%
Mavin Anderson run for 6 yds to the CAL 31Similar
Q4 6:38
2ND & 4
OWN 31
+9
97.0%
Jaydn Ott run for 9 yds to the CAL 37 Jaydn Ott fumbled, recovered by WSU Sam Lockett III No Huddle-Shotgun Ott,Jaydn rush left for 9 yards gain to the CAL40 fumbled by Ott,Jaydn at CAL35 forced by Hicks,Jaden recovered by WSU Lockett III,Sam at CAL40 Lockett III,Sam return 3 yards to the CAL37 (Young,Monroe).Similar
Q4 6:38
2ND & 4
OWN 31
+9
97.0%
Jaydn Ott run for 9 yds to the CAL 37 Jaydn Ott fumbled, recovered by WSU Sam Lockett III No Huddle-Shotgun Ott,Jaydn rush left for 9 yards gain to the CAL40 fumbled by Ott,Jaydn at CAL35 forced by Thornton,Kyle recovered by WSU Lockett III,Sam at CAL40 Lockett III,Sam return 3 yards to the CAL37 (Young,Monroe).Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WSUDrive 22TD
6 plays · 37 yds · 1:1510% → 45%
Q4 6:38
1ST & 10
OPP 37
0
90.1%
Cameron Ward pass incomplete to Kyle WilliamsSimilar
Q4 6:38
2ND & 10
OPP 37
+12
90.0%
Cameron Ward run for 12 yds to the CAL 25 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 6:38
1ST & 10
OPP 25
0
88.6%
Cameron Ward pass incomplete to Kyle WilliamsSimilar
Q4 6:38
2ND & 10
OPP 25
+20
89.0%
Cameron Ward pass complete to Lincoln Victor for 20 yds to the CAL 5 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 6:38
1ST & GOAL
OPP 5
0
88.6%
Cameron Ward pass incomplete to Josh KellySimilar
Q4 5:23
2ND & GOAL
OPP 5
+5
55.5%
Cameron Ward pass complete to Djouvensky Schlenbaker for 5 yds for a TD (Dean Janikowski KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CALDrive 23PUNT
5 plays · 7 yds · 1:4172% → 76%
Q4 5:23
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+1
71.9%
Jaydn Ott run for 1 yd to the CAL 26Similar
Q4 5:23
2ND & 9
OWN 26
+6
71.5%
Fernando Mendoza run for 6 yds to the CAL 32Similar
Q4 5:23
3RD & 3
OWN 32
0
71.0%
Fernando Mendoza pass incomplete to Trond GrizzellSimilar
Q4 3:42
4TH & 3
OWN 32
+17
75.6%
Lachlan Wilson punt for 51 yds , Isaiah Hamilton returns for 17 yds to the WSU 34Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WSUDrive 24MISSED FG
10 plays · 35 yds · 2:5235% → 25%
Q4 3:42
1ST & 10
OWN 34
+6
65.1%
Cameron Ward pass complete to Djouvensky Schlenbaker for 6 yds to the WSU 40Similar
Q4 3:42
2ND & 4
OWN 40
+1
61.8%
Djouvensky Schlenbaker run for 1 yd to the WSU 41Similar
Q4 3:42
3RD & 3
OWN 41
+2
62.8%
Djouvensky Schlenbaker run for 2 yds to the WSU 43Similar
Q4 3:42
4TH & 1
OWN 43
+6
65.5%
Djouvensky Schlenbaker run for 6 yds to the WSU 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 3:42
1ST & 10
OWN 49
0
60.2%
Cameron Ward pass incomplete to Kyle WilliamsSimilar
Q4 3:42
2ND & 10
OWN 49
+16
62.0%
Cameron Ward pass complete to Josh Kelly for 16 yds to the CAL 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 3:42
1ST & 10
OPP 35
0
57.1%
Cameron Ward pass incomplete to Djouvensky SchlenbakerSimilar
Q4 1:00
2ND & 10
OPP 35
+4
67.5%
Cameron Ward pass complete to Djouvensky Schlenbaker for 4 yds to the CAL 31Similar
Q4 1:00
3RD & 6
OPP 31
0
71.0%
Cameron Ward pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 0:50
4TH & 6
OPP 31
+48
75.1%
Dean Janikowski 48 yd FG MISSEDSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CALDrive 25PUNT
7 plays · 7 yds · 0:2891% → 94%
Q4 0:50
1ST & 10
OWN 31
+1
90.9%
Jaydn Ott run for 1 yd to the CAL 32Similar
Q4 0:45
2ND & 9
OWN 32
+4
94.3%
Jaydn Ott run for 4 yds to the CAL 36Similar
Q4 0:35
3RD & 5
OWN 36
+2
94.3%
Fernando Mendoza run for 2 yds to the CAL 38Similar
Q4 0:22
4TH & 3
OWN 38
0
94.2%
Lachlan Wilson punt for 32 yds, fair catch by Isaiah Hamilton at the WSU 30Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WSUDrive 26INT
5 plays · 17 yds · 0:2219% → 20%
Q4 0:22
1ST & 10
OWN 30
+11
81.4%
Cameron Ward pass complete to Cooper Mathers for 11 yds to the WSU 41 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 0:22
1ST & 10
OWN 41
+6
79.6%
Cameron Ward pass complete to Cooper Mathers for 6 yds to the WSU 47Similar
Q4 0:09
2ND & 4
OWN 47
0
78.2%
Cameron Ward pass incomplete to Lincoln VictorSimilar
Q4 0:00
3RD & 4
OWN 47
0
80.5%
Cameron Ward pass interceptedSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
TD · Q4 5:23
Cameron Ward pass complete to Djouvensky Schlenbaker for 5 yds for a TD (Dean Janikowski KICK)
-33
TD · Q4 11:14
Jaydn Ott run for 5 yds for a TD (Mateen Bhaghani KICK)
+22.5
End of Game · Final
Game over.
+19.5
YardLine · model v10Model estimate - not betting advice · Data provided by CollegeFootballData.com