Try the model
WASH

Washington 52 at USC 42

USC
2023 · Week 10 · Nov 4, 2023 · Los Angeles Memorial Coliseum
Speed4x
View as
Download image
Win probability · USC
modelUSC aheadWASH aheadconfidence bandkey playUSC scoreWASH score
0%25%50%75%100%Q1Q2Q3Q4TDTDTDTDTDTDTDTDTDTDTDTDFGTDEnd of Game
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q4 1:02 · Caleb Williams pass incomplete to Tahj Washington
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Home team on offensePregame priorScore differentialGarbage-time factorScore diff ÷ seconds remainingScore diff ÷ offense timeouts
+37.5+18.80−18.8−37.5Q1Q2Q3Q4Play 169Home team on offense−31.3Pregame prior−0.1Score differential−10.9Garbage-time factor−14.3Score diff ÷ seconds remaining−10.2Score diff ÷ offense timeouts−5.1
This game in five plays
  1. TD · Q2 6:44: Dillon Johnson 52 Yd Run (Grady Gross Kick) — WASH win probability +13.8 pts (now 55%) (top driver: WASH has the ball).
  2. TD · Q2 1:14: Ja'Lynn Polk 4 Yd pass from Michael Penix Jr. (Grady Gross Kick) — WASH win probability +14.0 pts (now 58%) (top driver: WASH has the ball).
  3. TD · Q3 8:00: Brenden Rice 25 Yd pass from Caleb Williams (Denis Lynch Kick) — USC win probability +16.4 pts (now 55%) (top driver: USC has the ball).
  4. TD · Q3 4:21: Michael Penix Jr. run for 1 yd for a TD (Grady Gross KICK) — WASH win probability +17.1 pts (now 74%) (top driver: WASH has the ball).
  5. TD · Q3 1:41: Mario Williams 20 Yd pass from Caleb Williams (Denis Lynch Kick) — USC win probability +22.9 pts (now 60%) (top driver: USC has the ball).
Was that the right call?

Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works

Fourth downs
USC made the numbers' call on 3 of 4WASH made the numbers' call on 3 of 3
  1. Q1 2:34USC 4th & 8 at USC 46, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 46.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    46.3%−0.2
    34% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    46.5%
    average punt
  2. Q1 1:24WASH 4th & 12 at WASH 18, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 52.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    52.3%−0.8
    22% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    53.0%
    average punt
  3. Q2 2:00WASH 4th & 6 at USC 34, down 7
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 40.5% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    40.3%
    40% to convert
    Field goal
    39.8%−0.5
    47% to make
    Punt
    38.5%−1.8
    average punt
  4. Q3 8:00USC 4th & 1 at WASH 25, down 7
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 36.7% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    36.9%
    71% to convert
    Field goal
    33.4%−3.5
    66% to make
    Punt
    23.1%−13.9
    average punt
  5. Q4 12:25WASH 4th & 16 at USC 26, tied
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 47.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    41.9%−6.0
    15% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    47.9%
    64% to make
    Punt
    32.8%−15.1
    average punt
  6. Q4 7:42USC 4th & 25 at WASH 42, down 3
    Close callPunted · 37.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    32.6%−4.3
    7% to convert
    Field goal
    36.9%
    30% to make
    PuntTheir call
    36.2%−0.7
    average punt
  7. Q4 1:02USC 4th & 4 at WASH 47, down 10
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 5.9% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    6.2%
    48% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    Punt
    5.8%−0.4
    average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
USC made the numbers' call on 6 of 6WASH made the numbers' call on 7 of 7
  1. Q1 8:56USC Touchdown, up 6 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    46.9%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    46.8%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  2. Q1 3:38WASH Touchdown, down 1 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    53.0%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    52.9%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  3. Q1 0:35USC Touchdown, up 6 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    51.5%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    51.5%−0.1
    45% to convert
  4. Q2 11:37WASH Touchdown, down 1 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    50.9%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    50.9%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  5. Q2 9:31USC Touchdown, up 6 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    54.8%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    54.7%−0.1
    45% to convert
  6. Q2 6:44WASH Touchdown, down 1 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    48.6%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    48.5%−0.1
    45% to convert
  7. Q2 4:04USC Touchdown, up 6 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    59.0%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    58.9%−0.1
    45% to convert
  8. Q2 1:14WASH Touchdown, down 1 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    47.3%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    47.2%−0.1
    45% to convert
  9. Q2 0:20WASH Touchdown, up 6 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    62.5%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    62.3%−0.1
    45% to convert
  10. Q3 8:00USC Touchdown, down 1 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    48.9%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    48.7%−0.2
    45% to convert
  11. Q3 4:21WASH Touchdown, up 6 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    65.9%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    65.7%−0.2
    45% to convert
  12. Q3 1:41USC Touchdown, down 1 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    50.2%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    49.9%−0.3
    45% to convert
  13. Q4 2:20WASH Touchdown, up 9 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    93.2%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    92.9%−0.4
    45% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chart
USCDrive 1TD
18 plays · 75 yds · 5:4943% → 48%
Q1 14:45
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+8
43.3%
Caleb Williams pass complete to Zachariah Branch for 8 yds to the USC 33Similar
Q1 14:33
2ND & 2
OWN 33
+1
43.4%
Austin Jones run for 1 yd to the USC 34Similar
Q1 13:59
3RD & 1
OWN 34
+3
43.6%
Austin Jones run for 3 yds to the USC 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 13:12
1ST & 10
OWN 37
+9
43.9%
Caleb Williams pass complete to Tahj Washington for 9 yds to the USC 46Similar
Q1 12:56
2ND & 1
OWN 46
+3
44.1%
Caleb Williams pass complete to Kyron Hudson for 3 yds to the USC 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 12:15
1ST & 10
OWN 49
+7
44.4%
Caleb Williams pass complete to Kyron Hudson for 7 yds to the WASH 44Similar
Q1 12:01
2ND & 3
OPP 44
+6
44.6%
Caleb Williams pass complete to Lake McRee for 6 yds to the WASH 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 11:40
1ST & 10
OPP 38
+5
44.7%
Williams, Caleb pass incomplete, PENALTY WASHINGTON offside 5 yards to the WASHINGTON33, NO PLAY.Similar
Q1 11:34
1ST & 5
OPP 33
-10
44.8%
Williams, Caleb pass incomplete to Singer, Dorian, PENALTY USC holding 10 yards to the WASHINGTON43, NO PLAY.Similar
Q1 11:27
1ST & 15
OPP 43
+9
44.6%
Austin Jones run for 9 yds to the WASH 34Similar
Q1 10:51
2ND & 6
OPP 34
+5
45.1%
Austin Jones run for 5 yds to the WASH 29Similar
Q1 10:15
3RD & 1
OPP 29
+10
45.2%
Caleb Williams run for 10 yds to the WASH 19 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 9:38
1ST & 10
OPP 19
+4
45.9%
Caleb Williams run for 4 yds to the WASH 15Similar
Q1 9:06
2ND & 6
OPP 15
+13
46.1%
Williams, Caleb pass incomplete to Rice, Brenden, PENALTY WASHINGTON pass interference 13 yards to the WASHINGTON2, NO PLAY, 1ST DOWN USCSimilar
Q1 8:56
1ST & GOAL
OPP 2
+2
48.4%
Raleek Brown 2 Yd Run (Denis Lynch Kick)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WASHDrive 2TD
11 plays · 75 yds · 5:0653% → 55%
Q1 8:44
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+5
47.4%
Michael Penix Jr. pass complete to Devin Culp for 5 yds to the WASH 30Similar
Q1 8:17
2ND & 5
OWN 30
+10
47.6%
Dillon Johnson run for 10 yds to the WASH 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 7:35
1ST & 10
OWN 40
+4
47.8%
Dillon Johnson run for 4 yds to the WASH 44Similar
Q1 7:03
2ND & 6
OWN 44
+15
47.8%
Michael Penix Jr. pass complete to Rome Odunze for 15 yds to the USC 41 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 6:39
1ST & 10
OPP 41
+19
47.8%
Michael Penix Jr. pass complete to Josh Cuevas for 19 yds to the USC 22 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 6:08
1ST & 10
OPP 22
+7
47.6%
Will Nixon run for 7 yds to the USC 15Similar
Q1 5:27
2ND & 3
OPP 15
+6
47.9%
Michael Penix Jr. pass complete to Will Nixon for 6 yds to the USC 9 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 4:51
1ST & GOAL
OPP 9
+6
48.2%
Michael Penix Jr. pass complete to Rome Odunze for 6 yds to the USC 3Similar
Q1 4:05
2ND & GOAL
OPP 3
+1
48.5%
Dillon Johnson run for 1 yd to the USC 2Similar
Q1 3:38
3RD & GOAL
OPP 2
+2
45.1%
Dillon Johnson 2 Yd Run (Grady Gross Kick)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USCDrive 3PUNT
6 plays · 21 yds · 0:5447% → 47%
Q1 3:28
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+19
46.8%
Caleb Williams pass complete to Brenden Rice for 19 yds to the USC 44 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 3:10
1ST & 10
OWN 44
+2
47.9%
Caleb Williams pass complete to Zachariah Branch for 2 yds to the USC 46Similar
Q1 2:45
2ND & 8
OWN 46
0
48.2%
Caleb Williams pass incomplete to Brenden RiceSimilar
Q1 2:40
3RD & 8
OWN 46
0
47.4%
Caleb Williams pass incomplete to Duce RobinsonSimilar
Q1 2:34
4TH & 8
OWN 46
0
47.2%
Eddie Czaplicki punt for 34 yds, fair catch by Denzel Boston at the WASH 20Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WASHDrive 4PUNT
5 plays · -2 yds · 0:4554% → 53%
Q1 2:09
1ST & 10
OWN 20
-10
46.3%
Penix Jr., Michael pass complete to Polk, Ja'Lynn for 9 yards to the WASHINGTON29, PENALTY WASHINGTON tripping 10 yards to the WASHINGTON10, NO PLAY.Similar
Q1 2:05
1ST & 20
OWN 10
+8
46.5%
Dillon Johnson run for 8 yds to the WASH 18Similar
Q1 1:35
2ND & 12
OWN 18
0
46.6%
Michael Penix Jr. pass incomplete to Ja'Lynn PolkSimilar
Q1 1:30
3RD & 12
OWN 18
0
47.0%
Michael Penix Jr. pass incomplete to Giles JacksonSimilar
Q1 1:24
4TH & 12
OWN 18
0
47.5%
TEAM punt blocked by Duce Robinson. TEAM punt 0 yards to the WASHINGTON18, recovered by USC Tabaracci, CarsonSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USCDrive 5TD
2 plays · 8 yds · 0:4150% → 55%
Q1 1:16
1ST & GOAL
OPP 8
+7
49.7%
Austin Jones run for 7 yds to the WASH 1Similar
Q1 0:35
2ND & GOAL
OPP 1
+1
54.8%
Caleb Williams 1 Yd Run (Denis Lynch Kick)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WASHDrive 6TD
12 plays · 79 yds · 3:4547% → 53%
Q1 0:22
1ST & 10
OWN 21
+5
53.1%
Dillon Johnson run for 5 yds to the WASH 26Similar
Q1 0:00
2ND & 5
OWN 26
+6
52.9%
Michael Penix Jr. pass complete to Giles Jackson for 6 yds to the WASH 32 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 14:51
1ST & 10
OWN 32
+15
53.0%
Germie Bernard run for 15 yds to the WASH 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 14:05
1ST & 10
OWN 47
+5
52.5%
Tybo Rogers run for 5 yds to the USC 48Similar
Q2 13:43
2ND & 5
OPP 48
+15
52.4%
Michael Penix Jr. pass complete to Tybo Rogers for 15 yds to the USC 33 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 13:15
1ST & 10
OPP 33
0
51.9%
Michael Penix Jr. pass incomplete to Ja'Lynn PolkSimilar
Q2 13:07
2ND & 10
OPP 33
+19
51.9%
Michael Penix Jr. pass complete to Rome Odunze for 19 yds to the USC 14 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 12:37
1ST & 10
OPP 14
0
52.1%
Michael Penix Jr. pass incomplete to Rome OdunzeSimilar
Q2 12:31
2ND & 10
OPP 14
-14
52.1%
Washington Penalty, Personal Foul (-14 Yards) to the USC 28Similar
Q2 12:24
2ND & 24
OPP 28
+6
53.2%
Dillon Johnson run for 6 yds to the USC 22Similar
Q2 11:37
3RD & 18
OPP 22
+22
46.6%
Devin Culp 22 Yd pass from Michael Penix Jr. (Grady Gross Kick)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USCDrive 7TD
6 plays · 95 yds · 1:5449% → 60%
Q2 11:25
1ST & 10
OWN 5
+11
49.0%
Austin Jones run for 11 yds to the USC 16 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 10:58
1ST & 10
OWN 16
+9
49.4%
Caleb Williams pass complete to Lake McRee for 9 yds to the USC 25Similar
Q2 10:43
2ND & 1
OWN 25
+31
50.3%
Austin Jones run for 31 yds to the WASH 44 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 9:50
1ST & 10
OPP 44
+43
52.2%
Darwin Barlow run for 43 yds to the WASH 1 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 9:31
1ST & GOAL
OPP 1
+1
59.7%
Darwin Barlow 1 Yd Run (Denis Lynch Kick)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WASHDrive 8TD
6 plays · 75 yds · 2:3243% → 55%
Q2 9:16
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+5
57.3%
Dillon Johnson run for 5 yds to the WASH 30Similar
Q2 8:44
2ND & 5
OWN 30
+11
57.2%
Dillon Johnson run for 11 yds to the WASH 41 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 7:54
1ST & 10
OWN 41
-4
57.6%
Michael Penix Jr. pass complete to Dillon Johnson for a loss of 4 yards to the WASH 37Similar
Q2 7:26
2ND & 14
OWN 37
+11
59.1%
Will Nixon run for 11 yds to the WASH 48Similar
Q2 6:44
3RD & 3
OWN 48
+52
45.4%
Dillon Johnson 52 Yd Run (Grady Gross Kick)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USCDrive 9TD
6 plays · 75 yds · 2:3351% → 64%
Q2 6:37
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+14
50.8%
Caleb Williams run for 14 yds to the USC 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 6:06
1ST & 10
OWN 39
+5
52.1%
Caleb Williams pass complete to Lake McRee for 5 yds to the USC 44Similar
Q2 5:30
2ND & 5
OWN 44
+10
53.3%
Austin Jones run for 10 yds to the WASH 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 4:47
1ST & 10
OPP 46
+5
54.0%
Caleb Williams pass complete to Mario Williams for 5 yds to the WASH 41Similar
Q2 4:04
2ND & 5
OPP 41
+41
64.3%
Tahj Washington 41 Yd pass from Caleb Williams (Denis Lynch Kick)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WASHDrive 10TD
11 plays · 70 yds · 2:1939% → 58%
Q2 3:33
1ST & 10
OWN 30
+32
61.4%
Michael Penix Jr. pass complete to Ja'Lynn Polk for 32 yds to the USC 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 3:15
1ST & 10
OPP 38
-1
59.1%
Dillon Johnson run for a loss of 1 yard to the USC 39Similar
Q2 2:38
2ND & 11
OPP 39
0
59.4%
Michael Penix Jr. pass incomplete to Giles JacksonSimilar
Q2 2:31
3RD & 11
OPP 39
+5
61.0%
Will Nixon run for 5 yds to the USC 34Similar
Q2 2:00
4TH & 6
OPP 34
+26
60.9%
Michael Penix Jr. pass complete to Rome Odunze for 26 yds to the USC 8 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 1:22
1ST & GOAL
OPP 8
+2
57.6%
Michael Penix Jr. pass complete to Ja'Lynn Polk for 2 yds to the USC 6Similar
Q2 1:18
2ND & GOAL
OPP 6
+2
56.7%
Dillon Johnson run for 2 yds to the USC 4Similar
Q2 1:14
3RD & GOAL
OPP 4
+4
42.5%
Ja'Lynn Polk 4 Yd pass from Michael Penix Jr. (Grady Gross Kick)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USCDrive 11FUMBLE
2 plays · -13 yds · 0:0051% → 51%
Q2 1:07
1ST & 10
OWN 25
-13
50.5%
Caleb Williams sacked by Zion Tupuola-Fetui for a loss of 13 yards to the USC 12 Caleb Williams fumbled, recovered by WASHSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WASHDrive 12TD
3 plays · 12 yds · 0:3959% → 70%
Q2 0:59
1ST & 10
OPP 12
+3
41.4%
Dillon Johnson run for 3 yds to the USC 9Similar
Q2 0:30
2ND & 7
OPP 9
+8
41.3%
Dillon Johnson run for 8 yds to the USC 1 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:20
1ST & GOAL
OPP 1
+1
29.7%
Dillon Johnson 1 Yd Run (Grady Gross Kick)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USCDrive 13END OF HALF
7 plays · 15 yds · 0:1036% → 37%
Q2 0:10
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+14
35.7%
Austin Jones run for 14 yds to the USC 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:10
1ST & 10
OWN 39
0
37.0%
TEAM pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 0:03
2ND & 10
OWN 39
+6
36.1%
Caleb Williams pass complete to Zachariah Branch for 6 yds to the USC 45Similar
Q2 0:00
3RD & 4
OWN 45
-5
37.3%
Caleb Williams sacked by Zion Tupuola-Fetui and Bralen Trice for a loss of 5 yards to the USC 40Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WASHDrive 14INT
9 plays · 50 yds · 3:1866% → 70%
Q3 14:47
1ST & 10
OWN 29
+1
33.9%
Dillon Johnson run for 1 yd to the WASH 30Similar
Q3 14:24
2ND & 9
OWN 30
-5
33.8%
Johnson, Dillon rush for 10 yards to the WASHINGTON40, PENALTY WASHINGTON illegal formation 5 yards to the WASHINGTON25, NO PLAY.Similar
Q3 13:52
2ND & 14
OWN 25
+15
34.7%
Michael Penix Jr. pass complete to Dillon Johnson for 15 yds to the WASH 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 13:11
1ST & 10
OWN 40
0
31.8%
Michael Penix Jr. pass incomplete to Giles JacksonSimilar
Q3 12:55
2ND & 10
OWN 40
+14
32.3%
Michael Penix Jr. pass complete to Germie Bernard for 14 yds to the USC 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 12:15
1ST & 10
OPP 46
+9
31.4%
Michael Penix Jr. pass complete to Ja'Lynn Polk for 9 yds to the USC 37Similar
Q3 11:40
2ND & 1
OPP 37
+16
30.7%
Michael Penix Jr. pass complete to Rome Odunze for 16 yds to the USC 21 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 11:29
1ST & 10
OPP 21
0
30.2%
Michael Penix Jr. pass intercepted, touchback. Christian Roland-Wallace return for no gainSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USCDrive 15TD
8 plays · 80 yds · 3:0435% → 55%
Q3 11:04
1ST & 10
OWN 20
0
34.9%
TEAM run for no gain to the USC 20Similar
Q3 10:44
2ND & 10
OWN 20
+34
34.7%
Caleb Williams pass complete to Tahj Washington for 34 yds to the WASH 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 10:22
1ST & 10
OPP 46
+2
38.7%
Caleb Williams pass complete to Lake McRee for 2 yds to the WASH 44Similar
Q3 9:40
2ND & 8
OPP 44
+10
38.6%
Caleb Williams run for 10 yds to the WASH 34 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 8:54
1ST & 10
OPP 34
0
40.0%
Caleb Williams pass incomplete to Brenden RiceSimilar
Q3 8:32
2ND & 10
OPP 34
+9
40.0%
Caleb Williams pass complete to Dorian Singer for 9 yds to the WASH 25Similar
Q3 8:07
3RD & 1
OPP 25
0
38.4%
Caleb Williams pass incomplete to Brenden RiceSimilar
Q3 8:00
4TH & 1
OPP 25
+25
54.8%
Brenden Rice 25 Yd pass from Caleb Williams (Denis Lynch Kick)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WASHDrive 16TD
9 plays · 75 yds · 3:3051% → 74%
Q3 7:51
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+7
49.4%
Ja'Lynn Polk run for 7 yds to the WASH 32Similar
Q3 7:18
2ND & 3
OWN 32
+33
47.3%
Dillon Johnson run for 33 yds to the USC 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 6:41
1ST & 10
OPP 35
+15
44.4%
Penix Jr., Michael pass incomplete to Odunze, Rome, PENALTY USC roughing passer 15 yards to the USC20, NO PLAY, 1ST DOWN WASHINGTON.Similar
Q3 6:35
1ST & 10
OPP 20
+6
43.9%
Dillon Johnson run for 6 yds to the USC 14Similar
Q3 6:08
2ND & 4
OPP 14
-6
43.9%
Dillon Johnson run for a loss of 6 yards to the USC 20Similar
Q3 5:18
3RD & 10
OPP 20
+11
46.2%
Michael Penix Jr. pass complete to Jack Westover for 11 yds to the USC 9 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 4:36
1ST & GOAL
OPP 9
+8
43.5%
Tybo Rogers run for 8 yds to the USC 1Similar
Q3 4:21
2ND & GOAL
OPP 1
+1
26.4%
Michael Penix Jr. run for 1 yd for a TD (Grady Gross KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USCDrive 17TD
8 plays · 83 yds · 2:2833% → 60%
Q3 4:09
2ND & 10
OWN 17
+33
32.8%
Caleb Williams pass complete to Duce Robinson for 43 yds to the WASH 40 for a 1ST down USC Penalty, Offensive Holding (-10 Yards) to the 50 yard line for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 4:09
1ST & 10
OWN 17
0
33.1%
Caleb Williams pass incomplete to Duce RobinsonSimilar
Q3 3:19
1ST & 10
50
+14
37.2%
Caleb Williams pass complete to Mario Williams for 14 yds to the WASH 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 2:53
1ST & 10
OPP 36
+2
37.6%
Caleb Williams run for 2 yds to the WASH 34Similar
Q3 2:21
2ND & 8
OPP 34
0
39.3%
Caleb Williams pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 2:13
3RD & 8
OPP 34
+14
37.0%
Caleb Williams pass complete to Tahj Washington for 14 yds to the WASH 20 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 1:41
1ST & 10
OPP 20
+20
60.0%
Mario Williams 20 Yd pass from Caleb Williams (Denis Lynch Kick)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WASHDrive 18FG
13 plays · 46 yds · 4:0351% → 61%
Q3 1:28
1ST & 10
OWN 28
+5
49.5%
Dillon Johnson run for 5 yds to the WASH 33Similar
Q3 1:01
2ND & 5
OWN 33
-5
48.2%
Washington Penalty, False Start (-5 Yards) to the WASH 28Similar
Q3 0:42
2ND & 10
OWN 28
+9
50.4%
Dillon Johnson run for 9 yds to the WASH 37Similar
Q3 0:21
3RD & 1
OWN 37
+2
47.8%
Michael Penix Jr. run for 2 yds to the WASH 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 14:56
1ST & 10
OWN 39
+15
47.8%
USC Penalty, Defensive Pass Interference (15 Yards) to the USC 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 14:46
1ST & 10
OPP 46
+6
45.6%
Dillon Johnson run for 6 yds to the USC 40Similar
Q4 14:26
2ND & 4
OPP 40
+20
45.1%
Dillon Johnson run for 20 yds to the USC 20 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 13:55
1ST & 10
OPP 20
0
43.4%
Michael Penix Jr. pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 13:50
2ND & 10
OPP 20
+1
43.9%
Will Nixon run for 1 yd to the USC 19Similar
Q4 13:01
3RD & 9
OPP 19
-7
44.7%
Michael Penix Jr. sacked by Eric Gentry for a loss of 7 yards to the USC 26Similar
Q4 12:25
4TH & 16
OPP 26
+43
38.9%
Grady Gross 43 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USCDrive 19PUNT
10 plays · 33 yds · 4:3840% → 36%
Q4 12:20
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+14
40.2%
Raleek Brown run for 14 yds to the USC 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 11:51
1ST & 10
OWN 39
+3
42.4%
Caleb Williams pass complete to Raleek Brown for 3 yds to the USC 42Similar
Q4 11:06
2ND & 7
OWN 42
+6
43.9%
Caleb Williams pass complete to Tahj Washington for 6 yds to the USC 48Similar
Q4 10:30
3RD & 1
OWN 48
+25
41.4%
Austin Jones run for 25 yds to the WASH 27 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 9:48
1ST & 10
OPP 27
+3
46.3%
Caleb Williams pass complete to Mario Williams for 3 yds to the WASH 24Similar
Q4 9:16
2ND & 7
OPP 24
0
46.3%
Raleek Brown run for no gain to the WASH 24Similar
Q4 8:37
3RD & 7
OPP 24
-6
43.7%
Caleb Williams pass complete to Tahj Washington for 4 yds to the WASH 20 USC Penalty, Offensive Holding (-10 Yards) to the WASH 30Similar
Q4 8:25
3RD & 13
OPP 30
-12
40.4%
Caleb Williams sacked by Voi Tunuufi for a loss of 12 yards to the WASH 42Similar
Q4 7:42
4TH & 25
OPP 42
0
35.7%
Eddie Czaplicki punt for 33 yds, fair catch by Denzel Boston at the WASH 9Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WASHDrive 20TD
9 plays · 91 yds · 5:1267% → 94%
Q4 7:32
1ST & 10
OWN 9
+53
32.6%
Dillon Johnson run for 53 yds to the USC 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 6:40
1ST & 10
OPP 38
+4
25.8%
Tybo Rogers run for 4 yds to the USC 34Similar
Q4 6:09
2ND & 6
OPP 34
+1
22.5%
Tybo Rogers run for 1 yd to the USC 33Similar
Q4 5:09
3RD & 5
OPP 33
+6
22.7%
Michael Penix Jr. pass complete to Giles Jackson for 6 yds to the USC 27 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 4:49
1ST & 10
OPP 27
+3
19.8%
Tybo Rogers run for 3 yds to the USC 24Similar
Q4 4:17
2ND & 7
OPP 24
+7
19.6%
Michael Penix Jr. pass complete to Giles Jackson for 7 yds to the USC 17 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 3:34
1ST & 10
OPP 17
+5
18.4%
Michael Penix Jr. pass complete to Ja'Lynn Polk for 5 yds to the USC 12Similar
Q4 2:53
2ND & 5
OPP 12
+11
16.7%
Dillon Johnson run for 11 yds to the USC 1 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 2:20
1ST & GOAL
OPP 1
+1
6.1%
Dillon Johnson run for 1 yd for a TD (Grady Gross KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USCDrive 21DOWNS
8 plays · 31 yds · 1:086% → 5%
Q4 2:10
1ST & 10
OWN 22
+8
6.0%
Caleb Williams pass complete to Tahj Washington for 8 yds to the USC 30Similar
Q4 1:55
2ND & 2
OWN 30
+6
5.9%
Caleb Williams pass complete to Tahj Washington for 6 yds to the USC 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 1:35
1ST & 10
OWN 36
+11
5.5%
Austin Jones run for 11 yds to the USC 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 1:20
1ST & 10
OWN 47
+5
5.8%
Caleb Williams run for 5 yds to the WASH 48Similar
Q4 1:13
2ND & 5
OPP 48
0
6.2%
Caleb Williams pass incomplete to Zachariah BranchSimilar
Q4 1:07
3RD & 5
OPP 48
+1
6.1%
Caleb Williams pass complete to Raleek Brown for 1 yd to the WASH 47Similar
Q4 1:02
4TH & 4
OPP 47
0
5.3%
Caleb Williams pass incomplete to Tahj WashingtonSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WASHDrive 22END OF GAME
2 plays · -3 yds · 1:0095% → 96%
Q4 1:00
1ST & 10
OWN 47
-1
4.6%
TEAM run for a loss of 1 yard to the WASH 46Similar
Q4 0:00
2ND & 11
OWN 46
-2
4.0%
TEAM run for a loss of 2 yards to the WASH 44Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
TD · Q3 1:41
Mario Williams 20 Yd pass from Caleb Williams (Denis Lynch Kick)
+22.9
TD · Q3 4:21
Michael Penix Jr. run for 1 yd for a TD (Grady Gross KICK)
-17.1
TD · Q3 8:00
Brenden Rice 25 Yd pass from Caleb Williams (Denis Lynch Kick)
+16.4
YardLine · model v10Model estimate - not betting advice · Data provided by CollegeFootballData.com