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ORST

Oregon State 26 at Colorado 19

COLO
2023 · Week 10 · Nov 4, 2023 · Folsom Field
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Win probability · COLO
modelCOLO aheadORST aheadconfidence bandkey playCOLO scoreORST score
0%25%50%75%100%Q1Q2Q3Q4TDFGTDTDTDFGTDFGTDEnd of GameFG-3.4COLO 3.5%Atticus Sappington 41 yd FG GOODAWAY 26 - HOME 12 · Q4 4:47
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q4 4:47 · Atticus Sappington 41 yd FG GOOD
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Pregame priorHome team on offenseScore differentialGarbage-time factorScore diff ÷ seconds remainingScore diff ÷ offense timeouts
+40.0+20.00−20.0−40.0Q1Q2Q3Q4Play 154Pregame prior−3.1Home team on offense−39.8Score differential−19.2Garbage-time factor−10.4Score diff ÷ seconds remaining−6.9Score diff ÷ offense timeouts−8.8
This game in five plays
  1. TD · Q2 0:16: Deshaun Fenwick 20 Yd pass from DJ Uiagalelei (Deshaun Fenwick Kick) — ORST win probability +7.5 pts (now 85%) (top driver: ORST has the ball).
  2. TD · Q3 3:55: DJ Uiagalelei run for 1 yd for a TD (DJ Uiagalelei fumbled) , return for no gain to the COLO 3 (DJ Uiagalelei fumbled) , return for no gain to the COLO 3 (DJ Uiagalelei fumbled) , return for no gain to the COLO 3 — ORST win probability +6.7 pts (now 93%) (top driver: ORST has the ball).
  3. TD · Q4 10:41: Shedeur Sanders pass complete to Travis Hunter for 15 yds for a TD (Alejandro Mata KICK) — COLO win probability +13.8 pts (now 19%) (top driver: COLO has the ball).
  4. FG · Q4 4:47: Atticus Sappington 41 yd FG GOOD — ORST win probability +3.4 pts (now 97%) (top driver: ORST has the ball).
  5. TD · Q4 1:42: Shedeur Sanders pass complete to Anthony Hankerson for 12 yds for a TD (Alejandro Mata KICK) — COLO win probability +22.9 pts (now 26%) (top driver: COLO has the ball).
Was that the right call?

Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works

Fourth downs
COLO made the numbers' call on 6 of 8ORST made the numbers' call on 2 of 6
  1. Q1 13:21ORST 4th & 3 at ORST 31, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 78.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    78.8%−<0.1
    52% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    78.8%
    average punt
  2. Q1 9:54COLO 4th & 2 at ORST 44, tied
    Close callPunted · 23.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    23.2%
    57% to convert
    Field goal
    23.0%−0.2
    27% to make
    PuntTheir call
    23.1%−0.1
    average punt
  3. Q2 14:36COLO 4th & 21 at COLO 24, down 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 22.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    21.9%−1.5
    8% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    23.4%
    average punt
  4. Q2 12:41ORST 4th & 19 at ORST 47, up 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 75.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    75.3%−1.1
    11% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    76.3%
    average punt
  5. Q2 9:50COLO 4th & 23 at COLO 22, down 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 23.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    21.5%−2.3
    6% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    23.8%
    average punt
  6. Q2 7:35COLO 4th & 5 at ORST 14, down 7
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 24.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    24.4%−0.1
    39% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    24.6%
    84% to make
    Punt
    19.8%−4.8
    average punt
  7. Q2 4:16ORST 4th & 8 at COLO 46, up 4
    Close callPunted · 70.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    70.7%
    34% to convert
    Field goal
    69.8%−0.9
    23% to make
    PuntTheir call
    70.7%−<0.1
    average punt
  8. Q2 2:55COLO 4th & 4 at COLO 41, down 4
    Close callPunted · 29.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    29.6%
    48% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    29.2%−0.4
    average punt
  9. Q2 0:49ORST 4th & 14 at COLO 39, up 4
    Close callPunted · 70.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    70.1%−0.8
    19% to convert
    Field goal
    70.8%
    36% to make
    PuntTheir call
    70.0%−0.9
    average punt
  10. Q2 0:22COLO 4th & 10 at COLO 4, down 4
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 28.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    23.4%−4.1
    25% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    27.5%
    average punt
  11. Q3 11:19COLO 4th & 12 at ORST 44, down 11
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 19.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    19.1%−0.7
    24% to convert
    Field goal
    18.9%−0.9
    27% to make
    PuntTheir call
    19.8%
    average punt
  12. Q3 2:59COLO 4th & 15 at COLO 20, down 15
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 11.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    10.3%−1.8
    16% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    12.1%
    average punt
  13. Q4 13:57ORST 4th & 4 at COLO 4, up 15
    Close callKicked a field goal · 92.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    92.4%
    40% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    92.0%−0.5
    93% to make
    Punt
    86.0%−6.4
    average punt
  14. Q4 4:47ORST 4th & 3 at COLO 23, up 11
    Close callKicked a field goal · 91.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    90.9%
    52% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    90.6%−0.3
    70% to make
    Punt
    87.8%−3.1
    average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
COLO made the numbers' call on 2 of 2ORST made the numbers' call on 2 of 2
  1. Q1 1:26ORST Touchdown, up 6 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    75.9%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    75.8%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  2. Q2 0:16ORST Touchdown, up 10 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    80.0%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    80.0%−0.1
    45% to convert
  3. Q4 10:41COLO Touchdown, down 12 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    11.6%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    11.3%−0.3
    45% to convert
  4. Q4 1:42COLO Touchdown, down 8 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    8.8%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    6.9%−2.0
    45% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chart
ORSTDrive 1PUNT
5 plays · 7 yds · 1:1984% → 83%
Q1 14:40
1ST & 10
OWN 24
+6
16.5%
Damien Martinez run for 6 yds to the ORST 30Similar
Q1 14:15
2ND & 4
OWN 30
+1
16.7%
Damien Martinez run for 1 yd to the ORST 31Similar
Q1 13:30
3RD & 3
OWN 31
0
17.0%
DJ Uiagalelei pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 13:21
4TH & 3
OWN 31
+48
17.2%
Josh Green punt for 48 yds , Jimmy Horn Jr. returns for a loss of 1 yard to the COLO 20Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
COLODrive 2PUNT
9 plays · 36 yds · 3:0517% → 19%
Q1 12:59
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+10
17.3%
Shedeur Sanders pass complete to Dylan Edwards for 10 yds to the COLO 30 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 12:45
1ST & 10
OWN 30
+1
17.4%
Dylan Edwards run for 1 yd to the COLO 31Similar
Q1 12:15
2ND & 9
OWN 31
-5
17.7%
Colorado Penalty, False Start (-5 Yards) to the COLO 26Similar
Q1 12:05
2ND & 14
OWN 26
+11
17.7%
Shedeur Sanders pass complete to Dylan Edwards for 11 yds to the COLO 37Similar
Q1 11:48
3RD & 3
OWN 37
+11
17.9%
Shedeur Sanders pass complete to Travis Hunter for 11 yds to the COLO 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 11:15
1ST & 10
OWN 48
+3
18.4%
Shedeur Sanders run for 3 yds to the ORST 49Similar
Q1 10:26
2ND & 7
OPP 49
+5
18.9%
Shedeur Sanders pass complete to Javon Antonio for 5 yds to the ORST 44Similar
Q1 10:02
3RD & 2
OPP 44
0
19.1%
Shedeur Sanders pass incomplete to Javon AntonioSimilar
Q1 9:54
4TH & 2
OPP 44
0
19.0%
Mark Vassett punt for 38 yds, fair catch by Anthony Gould at the ORST 6Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ORSTDrive 3FUMBLE
5 plays · 32 yds · 1:5981% → 80%
Q1 9:42
1ST & 10
OWN 6
+11
19.0%
Damien Martinez run for 11 yds to the ORST 17 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 9:05
1ST & 10
OWN 17
0
19.2%
DJ Uiagalelei pass incomplete to Jack VellingSimilar
Q1 8:54
2ND & 10
OWN 17
+11
19.3%
DJ Uiagalelei pass complete to Anthony Gould for 11 yds to the ORST 28 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 8:20
1ST & 10
OWN 28
+6
19.5%
Damien Martinez run for 6 yds to the ORST 34Similar
Q1 7:43
2ND & 4
OWN 34
+4
19.6%
Deshaun Fenwick run for 4 yds to the ORST 38 Deshaun Fenwick fumbled, recovered by COLO Trevor Woods Fenwick, Deshaun rush for 4 yards to the OREGONST38, fumble by Fenwick, Deshaun recovered by COLORADO Woods, Trevor at OREGONST38.Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
COLODrive 4FUMBLE
3 plays · 4 yds · 1:1521% → 21%
Q1 7:30
1ST & 10
OPP 38
+2
20.6%
Shedeur Sanders pass complete to Travis Hunter for 2 yds to the ORST 36Similar
Q1 6:54
2ND & 8
OPP 36
+2
21.0%
Dylan Edwards run for 2 yds to the ORST 34Similar
Q1 6:15
3RD & 6
OPP 34
+6
21.3%
Shedeur Sanders run for 6 yds to the ORST 28 Shedeur Sanders fumbled, recovered by ORST Calvin Hart Jr. Sanders, Shedeur rush for 6 yards to the OREGONST28, fumble by Sanders, Shedeur recovered by OREGONST Hart Jr., Calvin at OREGONST28.Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ORSTDrive 5TD
10 plays · 71 yds · 4:4479% → 81%
Q1 6:10
1ST & 10
OWN 28
+15
20.6%
Colorado Penalty, Defensive Pass Interference (15 Yards) to the ORST 44 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 5:50
1ST & 10
OWN 44
+1
20.4%
Damien Martinez run for 1 yd to the ORST 45Similar
Q1 5:30
2ND & 9
OWN 45
+6
20.6%
Aidan Chiles run for 6 yds to the COLO 49Similar
Q1 5:00
3RD & 3
OPP 49
+4
20.7%
DJ Uiagalelei run for 4 yds to the COLO 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 4:15
1ST & 10
OPP 45
+12
20.9%
Damien Martinez run for 12 yds to the COLO 33 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 3:38
1ST & 10
OPP 33
+5
21.0%
Damien Martinez run for 5 yds to the COLO 28Similar
Q1 2:58
2ND & 5
OPP 28
+3
21.2%
Damien Martinez run for 3 yds to the COLO 25Similar
Q1 1:59
3RD & 2
OPP 25
+2
21.7%
Damien Martinez run for 2 yds to the COLO 23 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 1:33
1ST & 10
OPP 23
0
21.6%
Aidan Chiles pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 1:26
2ND & 10
OPP 23
+23
18.6%
Aidan Chiles run for 23 yds for a TD (Atticus Sappington KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
COLODrive 6PUNT
7 plays · -1 yds · 1:3920% → 20%
Q1 1:15
1ST & 10
OWN 25
0
19.7%
Shedeur Sanders pass complete to Travis Hunter for no gain to the COLO 25Similar
Q1 0:40
2ND & 10
OWN 25
+10
19.8%
Shedeur Sanders pass complete to Xavier Weaver for 10 yds to the COLO 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 0:20
1ST & 10
OWN 35
-11
20.1%
Shedeur Sanders sacked by Andrew Chatfield Jr. for a loss of 11 yards to the COLO 24Similar
Q2 14:56
2ND & 21
OWN 24
0
20.0%
Shedeur Sanders pass incomplete to Dylan EdwardsSimilar
Q2 14:52
3RD & 21
OWN 24
0
19.6%
Shedeur Sanders pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 14:36
4TH & 21
OWN 24
+28
19.5%
Mark Vassett punt for 48 yds , Anthony Gould returns for 28 yds to the COLO 44Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ORSTDrive 7PUNT
5 plays · -9 yds · 1:4881% → 79%
Q2 14:29
1ST & 10
OPP 44
+5
19.0%
Damien Martinez run for 5 yds to the COLO 39Similar
Q2 13:49
2ND & 5
OPP 39
-10
19.0%
Oregon State Penalty, Offensive Holding (-10 Yards) to the COLO 49Similar
Q2 13:30
2ND & 15
OPP 49
0
19.5%
DJ Uiagalelei pass incomplete to Deshaun FenwickSimilar
Q2 13:15
3RD & 15
OPP 49
-4
20.0%
DJ Uiagalelei sacked by Leonard Payne Jr. for a loss of 4 yards to the ORST 47Similar
Q2 12:41
4TH & 19
OWN 47
0
20.7%
Josh Green punt for 53 yds for a touchbackSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
COLODrive 8PUNT
9 plays · 2 yds · 2:3421% → 20%
Q2 12:24
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+3
20.7%
Anthony Hankerson run for 3 yds to the COLO 23Similar
Q2 11:55
2ND & 7
OWN 23
-3
20.9%
Shedeur Sanders pass complete to Anthony Hankerson for a loss of 3 yards to the COLO 20Similar
Q2 11:27
3RD & 10
OWN 20
+15
20.4%
Oregon State Penalty, Defensive Pass Interference (15 Yards) to the COLO 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 11:09
1ST & 10
OWN 35
-6
21.3%
Shedeur Sanders pass complete to Anthony Hankerson for a loss of 6 yards to the COLO 29Similar
Q2 10:40
2ND & 16
OWN 29
-2
21.1%
Shedeur Sanders pass complete to Dylan Edwards for a loss of 2 yards to the COLO 27Similar
Q2 10:02
3RD & 18
OWN 27
0
20.1%
Shedeur Sanders pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 10:02
4TH & 18
OWN 27
-5
19.9%
Colorado Penalty, False Start (-5 Yards) to the COLO 22Similar
Q2 9:50
4TH & 23
OWN 22
0
19.7%
Mark Vassett punt for 56 yds, downed at the ORST 22Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ORSTDrive 9FUMBLE
2 plays · -3 yds · 0:4179% → 79%
Q2 9:40
1ST & 10
OWN 22
-8
20.6%
DJ Uiagalelei sacked by Trevor Woods and Amari McNeill for a loss of 8 yards to the ORST 14Similar
Q2 8:59
2ND & 18
OWN 14
+5
21.0%
Damien Martinez run for 5 yds to the ORST 19 Damien Martinez fumbled, recovered by COLO Derrick McLendon Martinez, Damien rush for 5 yards to the OREGONST19, fumble by Martinez, Damien recovered by COLORADO McLendon, Derrick at OREGONST19.Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
COLODrive 10FG
4 plays · 5 yds · 1:1023% → 25%
Q2 8:45
1ST & 10
OPP 19
+2
23.4%
Dylan Edwards run for 2 yds to the ORST 17Similar
Q2 8:21
2ND & 8
OPP 17
0
23.6%
Shedeur Sanders pass incomplete to Jimmy Horn Jr.Similar
Q2 8:10
3RD & 8
OPP 17
+3
22.2%
Shedeur Sanders pass complete to Dylan Edwards for 3 yds to the ORST 14Similar
Q2 7:35
4TH & 5
OPP 14
+32
25.4%
Alejandro Mata 32 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ORSTDrive 11PUNT
8 plays · 29 yds · 3:1276% → 75%
Q2 7:28
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+1
23.9%
Damien Martinez run for 1 yd to the ORST 26Similar
Q2 6:50
2ND & 9
OWN 26
+4
24.2%
Damien Martinez run for 4 yds to the ORST 30Similar
Q2 6:29
3RD & 5
OWN 30
+22
24.3%
DJ Uiagalelei pass complete to Jack Velling for 22 yds to the COLO 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 5:44
1ST & 10
OPP 48
-3
22.9%
Silas Bolden run for a loss of 3 yards to the ORST 49Similar
Q2 5:07
2ND & 13
OWN 49
0
23.9%
DJ Uiagalelei pass incomplete to Damien MartinezSimilar
Q2 5:00
3RD & 13
OWN 49
+5
24.8%
DJ Uiagalelei run for 5 yds to the COLO 46Similar
Q2 4:16
4TH & 8
OPP 46
0
25.2%
Josh Green punt for 46 yds for a touchbackSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
COLODrive 12PUNT
5 plays · 21 yds · 1:1326% → 26%
Q2 4:08
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+15
25.8%
Oregon State Penalty, Defensive Pass Interference (15 Yards) to the COLO 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 3:56
1ST & 10
OWN 35
+6
26.3%
Sy'veon Wilkerson run for 6 yds to the COLO 41Similar
Q2 3:45
2ND & 4
OWN 41
0
28.3%
Sy'veon Wilkerson run for no gain to the COLO 41Similar
Q2 3:04
3RD & 4
OWN 41
0
27.8%
Shedeur Sanders pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 2:55
4TH & 4
OWN 41
0
26.2%
Mark Vassett punt for 47 ydsSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ORSTDrive 13PUNT
10 plays · 49 yds · 1:5275% → 74%
Q2 2:41
1ST & 10
OWN 12
+18
25.0%
DJ Uiagalelei pass complete to Silas Bolden for 18 yds to the ORST 30 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 2:28
1ST & 10
OWN 30
0
24.4%
DJ Uiagalelei pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 2:17
2ND & 10
OWN 30
+5
25.0%
Damien Martinez run for 5 yds to the ORST 35Similar
Q2 1:52
3RD & 5
OWN 35
+20
24.9%
DJ Uiagalelei pass complete to Jesiah Irish for 20 yds to the COLO 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 1:30
1ST & 10
OPP 45
+10
22.7%
DJ Uiagalelei pass complete to Silas Bolden for 10 yds to the COLO 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 1:05
1ST & 10
OPP 35
0
22.1%
DJ Uiagalelei pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 1:01
2ND & 10
OPP 35
-4
22.2%
DJ Uiagalelei sacked by LaVonta Bentley for a loss of 4 yards to the COLO 39Similar
Q2 0:57
3RD & 14
OPP 39
0
24.9%
DJ Uiagalelei pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 0:49
4TH & 14
OPP 39
0
26.4%
DJ Uiagalelei punt for 35 yds, downed at the COLO 4Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
COLODrive 14PUNT
5 plays · 0 yds · 0:2227% → 27%
Q2 0:44
1ST & 10
OWN 4
0
26.8%
Shedeur Sanders pass incomplete to Dylan EdwardsSimilar
Q2 0:39
2ND & 10
OWN 4
0
26.7%
Shedeur Sanders pass incomplete to Jimmy Horn Jr.Similar
Q2 0:36
3RD & 10
OWN 4
0
25.9%
Dylan Edwards run for no gain to the COLO 4Similar
Q2 0:22
4TH & 10
OWN 4
+28
26.5%
Mark Vassett punt for 49 yds , Anthony Gould returns for 28 yds to the COLO 25Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ORSTDrive 15TD
3 plays · 25 yds · 0:0677% → 85%
Q2 0:22
1ST & 10
OPP 25
+5
23.0%
Colorado Penalty, Illegal Formation (5 Yards) to the COLO 20Similar
Q2 0:16
1ST & 10
OPP 20
+20
15.2%
Deshaun Fenwick 20 Yd pass from DJ Uiagalelei (Deshaun Fenwick Kick)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
COLODrive 16END OF HALF
2 plays · -1 yds · 0:0018% → 18%
Q2 0:10
1ST & 10
OWN 24
-1
18.3%
TEAM run for a loss of 1 yard to the COLO 23Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
COLODrive 17PUNT
9 plays · 31 yds · 3:3118% → 18%
Q3 14:50
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+8
18.1%
Sy'veon Wilkerson run for 8 yds to the COLO 33Similar
Q3 14:20
2ND & 2
OWN 33
+8
18.9%
Shedeur Sanders pass complete to Xavier Weaver for 8 yds to the COLO 41 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 14:00
1ST & 10
OWN 41
+8
19.2%
Shedeur Sanders pass complete to Travis Hunter for 8 yds to the COLO 49Similar
Q3 13:45
2ND & 2
OWN 49
+9
19.8%
Shedeur Sanders pass complete to Jimmy Horn Jr. for 9 yds to the ORST 42 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 13:15
1ST & 10
OPP 42
-5
20.1%
Shedeur Sanders run for a loss of 5 yards to the ORST 47Similar
Q3 12:30
2ND & 15
OPP 47
+3
19.3%
Sy'veon Wilkerson run for 3 yds to the ORST 44Similar
Q3 11:44
3RD & 12
OPP 44
0
19.1%
Shedeur Sanders pass complete to Xavier Weaver for no gain to the ORST 44Similar
Q3 11:19
4TH & 12
OPP 44
0
17.6%
Mark Vassett punt for 29 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the ORST 15Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ORSTDrive 18TD
15 plays · 85 yds · 7:1582% → 92%
Q3 11:10
1ST & 10
OWN 15
+12
18.3%
Damien Martinez run for 12 yds to the ORST 27 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 10:35
1ST & 10
OWN 27
0
17.4%
DJ Uiagalelei pass incomplete to Jack VellingSimilar
Q3 10:27
2ND & 10
OWN 27
-10
17.7%
Oregon State Penalty, Offensive Holding (-10 Yards) to the ORST 17Similar
Q3 10:02
2ND & 20
OWN 17
+27
17.8%
DJ Uiagalelei pass complete to Jack Velling for 27 yds to the ORST 44 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 9:15
1ST & 10
OWN 44
+11
16.0%
Damien Martinez run for 11 yds to the COLO 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 8:57
1ST & 10
OPP 45
+2
16.0%
Damien Martinez run for 2 yds to the COLO 43Similar
Q3 8:30
2ND & 8
OPP 43
+17
15.8%
Deshaun Fenwick run for 17 yds to the COLO 26 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 7:41
1ST & 10
OPP 26
+3
15.3%
Deshaun Fenwick run for 3 yds to the COLO 23Similar
Q3 6:59
2ND & 7
OPP 23
-3
15.1%
Deshaun Fenwick run for a loss of 3 yards to the COLO 26Similar
Q3 6:15
3RD & 10
OPP 26
+15
15.6%
DJ Uiagalelei pass complete to Anthony Gould for 15 yds to the COLO 11 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 5:41
1ST & 10
OPP 11
-4
15.1%
Deshaun Fenwick run for a loss of 4 yards to the COLO 15Similar
Q3 5:01
2ND & 14
OPP 15
+14
15.0%
DJ Uiagalelei run for 14 yds to the COLO 1 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 4:20
1ST & 0
OPP 1
0
14.2%
Oregon State Penalty, Offensive Offside (Yards) to the COLO 1 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 3:55
1ST & GOAL
OPP 1
+1
7.5%
DJ Uiagalelei run for 1 yd for a TD (DJ Uiagalelei fumbled) , return for no gain to the COLO 3 (DJ Uiagalelei fumbled) , return for no gain to the COLO 3 (DJ Uiagalelei fumbled) , return for no gain to the COLO 3Similar
Q3 3:55
1ST & 0
OPP 3
0
7.9%
Kyndrich Breedlove return for defensive PATSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
COLODrive 19PUNT
5 plays · -5 yds · 0:4611% → 11%
Q3 3:45
1ST & 10
OWN 25
-5
11.4%
Shedeur Sanders sacked by Cory Stover for a loss of 5 yards to the COLO 20Similar
Q3 3:15
2ND & 15
OWN 20
0
10.9%
Shedeur Sanders pass incomplete to Jimmy Horn Jr.Similar
Q3 3:09
3RD & 15
OWN 20
0
10.7%
Shedeur Sanders pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 2:59
4TH & 15
OWN 20
0
10.7%
Mark Vassett punt for 50 yds, downed at the ORST 30Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ORSTDrive 20FG
9 plays · 66 yds · 3:4491% → 96%
Q3 2:41
1ST & 10
OWN 30
+12
9.1%
DJ Uiagalelei pass complete to Silas Bolden for 12 yds to the ORST 42 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 2:10
1ST & 10
OWN 42
+2
7.5%
Damien Martinez run for 2 yds to the ORST 44Similar
Q3 1:30
2ND & 8
OWN 44
+37
7.3%
DJ Uiagalelei pass complete to Rweha Munyagi Jr. for 37 yds to the COLO 19 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 0:39
1ST & 10
OPP 19
+11
6.5%
DJ Uiagalelei pass complete to Anthony Gould for 11 yds to the COLO 8 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 14:55
1ST & GOAL
OPP 8
0
5.2%
DJ Uiagalelei pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 14:45
2ND & GOAL
OPP 8
+4
5.2%
DJ Uiagalelei run for 4 yds to the COLO 4Similar
Q4 14:01
3RD & GOAL
OPP 4
0
5.4%
DJ Uiagalelei pass incomplete to Jack VellingSimilar
Q4 13:57
4TH & GOAL
OPP 4
+22
3.7%
Atticus Sappington 22 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
COLODrive 21TD
12 plays · 75 yds · 3:126% → 19%
Q4 13:53
1ST & 10
OWN 25
0
5.6%
Shedeur Sanders pass incomplete to Xavier WeaverSimilar
Q4 13:45
2ND & 10
OWN 25
0
5.2%
Shedeur Sanders pass incomplete to Dylan EdwardsSimilar
Q4 13:21
3RD & 10
OWN 25
+13
5.1%
Shedeur Sanders pass complete to Travis Hunter for 13 yds to the COLO 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 13:21
1ST & 10
OWN 38
-5
5.4%
Colorado Penalty, Illegal Procedure (-5 Yards) to the COLO 33Similar
Q4 13:05
1ST & 15
OWN 33
-5
5.2%
Colorado Penalty, False Start (-5 Yards) to the COLO 28Similar
Q4 12:31
1ST & 20
OWN 28
-14
4.8%
Shedeur Sanders sacked by Andrew Chatfield Jr. for a loss of 14 yards to the COLO 14 Shedeur Sanders fumbled, recovered by COLOSimilar
Q4 12:00
2ND & 34
OWN 14
+23
4.3%
Shedeur Sanders pass complete to Omarion Miller for 23 yds to the COLO 37Similar
Q4 11:40
3RD & 11
OWN 37
+12
4.4%
Shedeur Sanders pass complete to Xavier Weaver for 12 yds to the COLO 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 11:03
1ST & 10
OWN 49
+36
4.4%
Shedeur Sanders pass complete to Xavier Weaver for 36 yds to the ORST 15 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 10:46
1ST & 10
OPP 15
0
5.1%
Shedeur Sanders pass incomplete to Xavier WeaverSimilar
Q4 10:41
2ND & 10
OPP 15
+15
18.9%
Shedeur Sanders pass complete to Travis Hunter for 15 yds for a TD (Alejandro Mata KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ORSTDrive 22FG
12 plays · 52 yds · 5:4389% → 97%
Q4 10:30
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+6
10.9%
Deshaun Fenwick run for 6 yds to the ORST 31Similar
Q4 9:55
2ND & 4
OWN 31
+3
10.5%
Deshaun Fenwick run for 3 yds to the ORST 34Similar
Q4 9:11
3RD & 1
OWN 34
+3
10.2%
DJ Uiagalelei run for 3 yds to the ORST 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 8:30
1ST & 10
OWN 37
+20
9.1%
DJ Uiagalelei pass complete to Jack Velling for 20 yds to the COLO 43 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 7:45
1ST & 10
OPP 43
+2
8.3%
Deshaun Fenwick run for 2 yds to the COLO 41Similar
Q4 7:01
2ND & 8
OPP 41
+6
7.7%
Deshaun Fenwick run for 6 yds to the COLO 35Similar
Q4 6:20
3RD & 2
OPP 35
+5
7.5%
Deshaun Fenwick run for 5 yds to the COLO 30 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 5:41
1ST & 10
OPP 30
0
6.8%
DJ Uiagalelei pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 5:29
2ND & 10
OPP 30
+7
6.8%
DJ Uiagalelei run for 7 yds to the COLO 23Similar
Q4 4:53
3RD & 3
OPP 23
0
6.8%
DJ Uiagalelei pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 4:47
4TH & 3
OPP 23
+41
3.5%
Atticus Sappington 41 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
COLODrive 23TD
10 plays · 75 yds · 2:585% → 26%
Q4 4:40
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+9
4.6%
Shedeur Sanders pass complete to Travis Hunter for 9 yds to the COLO 34Similar
Q4 4:22
2ND & 1
OWN 34
0
3.6%
Shedeur Sanders pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 4:10
3RD & 1
OWN 34
+1
3.6%
Dylan Edwards run for 1 yd to the COLO 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 3:51
1ST & 10
OWN 35
0
3.5%
Shedeur Sanders pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 3:45
2ND & 10
OWN 35
+5
3.5%
Anthony Hankerson run for 5 yds to the COLO 40Similar
Q4 3:03
3RD & 5
OWN 40
+19
3.4%
Shedeur Sanders pass complete to Jimmy Horn Jr. for 19 yds to the ORST 41 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 2:40
1ST & 10
OPP 41
-11
3.7%
Shedeur Sanders sacked by Andrew Chatfield Jr. for a loss of 11 yards to the COLO 48Similar
Q4 2:00
2ND & 21
OWN 48
+40
2.8%
Shedeur Sanders pass complete to Travis Hunter for 40 yds to the ORST 12 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 1:42
1ST & 10
OPP 12
+12
25.7%
Shedeur Sanders pass complete to Anthony Hankerson for 12 yds for a TD (Alejandro Mata KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ORSTDrive 24END OF GAME
9 plays · 14 yds · 1:3791% → 95%
Q4 1:37
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+6
9.4%
Damien Martinez run for 6 yds to the ORST 31Similar
Q4 1:32
2ND & 4
OWN 31
+10
5.7%
Damien Martinez run for 10 yds to the ORST 41 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 1:00
1ST & 10
OWN 41
+5
5.3%
Damien Martinez run for 5 yds to the ORST 46Similar
Q4 0:40
2ND & 5
OWN 46
-6
4.9%
DJ Uiagalelei run for a loss of 6 yards to the ORST 40Similar
Q4 0:00
3RD & 11
OWN 40
-1
4.8%
TEAM run for a loss of 1 yard to the ORST 39Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
TD · Q4 1:42
Shedeur Sanders pass complete to Anthony Hankerson for 12 yds for a TD (Alejandro Mata KICK)
+22.9
TD · Q4 10:41
Shedeur Sanders pass complete to Travis Hunter for 15 yds for a TD (Alejandro Mata KICK)
+13.8
TD · Q2 0:16
Deshaun Fenwick 20 Yd pass from DJ Uiagalelei (Deshaun Fenwick Kick)
-7.5
YardLine · model v10Model estimate - not betting advice · Data provided by CollegeFootballData.com