Try the model
UCLA

UCLA 10 at Arizona 27

ARIZ
2023 · Week 10 · Nov 4, 2023 · Arizona Stadium
Speed4x
View as
Download image
Win probability · ARIZ
modelARIZ aheadUCLA aheadconfidence bandkey playARIZ scoreUCLA score
0%25%50%75%100%Q1Q2Q3Q4TDTDTDFGFGTDFGEnd of Game
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q4 0:21 · (00:21) Kneel down by FIFITA, Noah at UCL40 (team loss of 1), clock 00:17.
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Home team on offenseScore differentialGarbage-time factorScore diff ÷ offense timeoutsScore diff ÷ seconds remainingPregame prior
+31.5+15.80−15.8−31.5Q1Q2Q3Q4
This game in five plays
  1. TD · Q1 2:27: Noah Fifita pass complete to Montana Lemonious-Craig for 9 yds for a TD (Tyler Loop KICK) — ARIZ win probability +4.4 pts (now 59%) (top driver: ARIZ has the ball).
  2. TD · Q2 1:27: Noah Fifita pass complete to Jacob Cowing for 9 yds for a TD (Tyler Loop KICK) — ARIZ win probability +10.1 pts (now 79%) (top driver: ARIZ has the ball).
  3. TD · Q2 0:03: Ethan Garbers pass complete to Carsen Ryan for 14 yds for a TD (Blake Glessner KICK) — UCLA win probability +13.3 pts (now 36%) (top driver: UCLA has the ball).
  4. KEY PLAY · Q3 2:28: Noah Fifita pass complete to Tanner McLachlan for 13 yds to the ARIZ 38 for a 1ST down — ARIZ win probability +5.5 pts (now 78%) (top driver: ARIZ has the ball).
  5. TD · Q4 14:37: Noah Fifita pass complete to Tetairoa McMillan for 11 yds for a TD (Tyler Loop KICK) — ARIZ win probability +8.3 pts (now 93%) (top driver: ARIZ has the ball).
Was that the right call?

Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works

Fourth downs
ARIZ made the numbers' call on 3 of 4UCLA made the numbers' call on 6 of 8
  1. Q1 14:23UCLA 4th & 6 at UCLA 29, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 54.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    54.9%−<0.1
    39% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    54.9%
    average punt
  2. Q1 7:37UCLA 4th & 19 at ARIZ 24, tied
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 53.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    52.7%−0.4
    11% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    53.2%
    68% to make
    Punt
    52.1%−1.1
    average punt
  3. Q2 11:34UCLA 4th & 20 at ARIZ 23, down 7
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 43.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    41.7%−1.6
    9% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    43.3%
    70% to make
    Punt
    39.6%−3.7
    average punt
  4. Q2 5:59ARIZ 4th & 16 at UCLA 40, up 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 59.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    58.6%−0.7
    16% to convert
    Field goal
    59.2%−0.1
    34% to make
    PuntTheir call
    59.3%
    average punt
  5. Q2 4:41UCLA 4th & 3 at UCLA 27, down 7
    Close callPunted · 38.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    38.0%
    52% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    37.8%−0.3
    average punt
  6. Q3 8:15ARIZ 4th & 12 at UCLA 20, up 7
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 69.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    66.9%−2.2
    22% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    69.1%
    75% to make
    Punt
    61.2%−7.9
    average punt
  7. Q3 2:28UCLA 4th & 11 at ARIZ 11, down 10
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 22.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    19.6%−2.0
    22% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    21.6%
    87% to make
    Punt
    11.6%−10.0
    average punt
  8. Q4 14:05UCLA 4th & 17 at UCLA 18, down 14
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 10.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    8.6%−2.5
    13% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    11.0%
    average punt
  9. Q4 11:17ARIZ 4th & 18 at ARIZ 34, up 14
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 92.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    90.6%−3.0
    12% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    93.6%
    average punt
  10. Q4 8:02UCLA 4th & 19 at ARIZ 28, down 14
    Numbers favored field goal by 1.6 ptsWent for it · 7.6% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    5.9%−1.6
    11% to convert
    Field goal
    7.5%
    60% to make
    Punt
    4.6%−2.9
    average punt
  11. Q4 4:40ARIZ 4th & 4 at UCLA 5, up 14
    Close callKicked a field goal · 96.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    96.3%
    40% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    96.0%−0.3
    92% to make
    Punt
    93.0%−3.3
    average punt
  12. Q4 3:04UCLA 4th & 4 at ARIZ 42, down 17
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 2.2% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    2.1%
    48% to convert
    Field goal
    2.0%−0.1
    30% to make
    Punt
    1.9%−0.2
    average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
ARIZ made the numbers' call on 3 of 3UCLA made the numbers' call on 1 of 1
  1. Q1 2:27ARIZ Touchdown, up 6 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    51.9%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    51.8%−0.1
    45% to convert
  2. Q2 1:27ARIZ Touchdown, up 13 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    73.9%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    73.8%−0.1
    45% to convert
  3. Q2 0:03UCLA Touchdown, down 8 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    33.2%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    33.0%−0.1
    45% to convert
  4. Q4 14:37ARIZ Touchdown, up 13 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    88.9%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    88.8%−0.1
    45% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chart
UCLADrive 1PUNT
4 plays · 4 yds · 0:3749% → 48%
Q1 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+4
51.5%
Ethan Garbers pass complete to Logan Loya for 4 yds to the UCLA 29Similar
Q1 14:32
2ND & 6
OWN 29
0
51.6%
Collin Schlee pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 14:27
3RD & 6
OWN 29
0
51.7%
Ethan Garbers pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 14:23
4TH & 6
OWN 29
0
51.7%
Will Powers punt for 40 ydsSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ARIZDrive 2INT
6 plays · 38 yds · 2:3352% → 53%
Q1 14:15
1ST & 10
OWN 33
+2
51.7%
DJ Williams run for 2 yds to the ARIZ 35Similar
Q1 13:37
2ND & 8
OWN 35
+6
51.8%
Noah Fifita pass complete to Montana Lemonious-Craig for 6 yds to the ARIZ 41Similar
Q1 12:59
3RD & 2
OWN 41
+18
52.0%
Noah Fifita pass complete to Jacob Cowing for 18 yds to the UCLA 41 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 12:25
1ST & 10
OPP 41
+12
52.3%
Jonah Coleman run for 12 yds to the UCLA 29 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 11:48
1ST & 10
OPP 29
0
52.6%
Noah Fifita pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 11:42
2ND & 10
OPP 29
0
52.6%
Noah Fifita pass interceptedSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UCLADrive 3MISSED FG
10 plays · 15 yds · 3:5548% → 47%
Q1 11:32
1ST & 10
OPP 39
+2
51.7%
Carson Steele run for 2 yds to the ARIZ 37Similar
Q1 11:06
2ND & 8
OPP 37
+6
51.6%
Ethan Garbers pass complete to Kam Brown for 6 yds to the ARIZ 31Similar
Q1 10:31
3RD & 2
OPP 31
+2
51.7%
Ethan Garbers run for 2 yds to the ARIZ 29 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 9:49
1ST & 10
OPP 29
0
51.5%
Ethan Garbers pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 9:43
2ND & 10
OPP 29
+14
51.6%
Ethan Garbers pass complete to Carson Steele for 14 yds to the ARIZ 15 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 9:14
1ST & 10
OPP 15
0
51.6%
Carson Steele run for no gain to the ARIZ 15Similar
Q1 8:45
2ND & 10
OPP 15
-10
51.4%
(08:45) GARBERS, Ethan scrambles up the middle for a gain of 11 yards to the ARI4 (MALDONADO, Gunner), clock 08:36. PENALTY UCL Holding on FINA, Bruno enforced 10 yards from the ARI15 to the ARI25 [NHSG]. NO PLAY (replay the down).Similar
Q1 8:25
2ND & 20
OPP 25
+1
51.8%
Keegan Jones run for 1 yd to the ARIZ 24Similar
Q1 7:43
3RD & 19
OPP 24
0
52.0%
Ethan Garbers pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 7:37
4TH & 19
OPP 24
+42
52.7%
Blake Glessner 42 yd FG MISSEDSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ARIZDrive 4TD
11 plays · 76 yds · 5:1053% → 59%
Q1 7:37
1ST & 10
OWN 24
+2
52.5%
Rayshon Luke run for 2 yds to the ARIZ 26Similar
Q1 6:59
2ND & 8
OWN 26
0
52.6%
Noah Fifita pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 6:55
3RD & 8
OWN 26
+21
52.1%
Noah Fifita pass complete to Tetairoa McMillan for 21 yds to the ARIZ 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 6:14
1ST & 10
OWN 47
+2
53.5%
Noah Fifita pass complete to Jacob Cowing for 2 yds to the ARIZ 49Similar
Q1 5:38
2ND & 8
OWN 49
+6
53.7%
Jacob Cowing run for 6 yds to the UCLA 45Similar
Q1 5:14
3RD & 2
OPP 45
+6
53.7%
Noah Fifita pass complete to Jacob Cowing for 6 yds to the UCLA 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 4:46
1ST & 10
OPP 39
0
54.1%
Jonah Coleman run for no gain to the UCLA 39Similar
Q1 4:04
2ND & 10
OPP 39
0
54.2%
Noah Fifita pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 3:57
3RD & 10
OPP 39
+15
53.8%
Noah Fifita pass complete to Tetairoa McMillan for 15 yds to the UCLA 24 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 3:12
1ST & 10
OPP 24
+15
54.7%
Noah Fifita pass complete to Kevin Green Jr. for 15 yds to the UCLA 9 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 2:27
1ST & GOAL
OPP 9
+9
59.2%
Noah Fifita pass complete to Montana Lemonious-Craig for 9 yds for a TD (Tyler Loop KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UCLADrive 5MISSED FG
12 plays · 52 yds · 5:4942% → 38%
Q1 2:23
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+16
57.6%
Ethan Garbers pass complete to Hudson Habermehl for 16 yds to the UCLA 41 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 1:51
1ST & 10
OWN 41
+2
57.1%
Carson Steele run for 2 yds to the UCLA 43Similar
Q1 1:15
2ND & 8
OWN 43
+14
57.4%
Collin Schlee run for 14 yds to the ARIZ 43 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 0:42
1ST & 10
OPP 43
+9
56.9%
Ethan Garbers pass complete to J. Michael Sturdivant for 9 yds to the ARIZ 34Similar
Q1 0:02
2ND & 1
OPP 34
0
56.2%
Ethan Garbers pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 14:59
3RD & 1
OPP 34
+2
57.0%
Carson Steele run for 2 yds to the ARIZ 32 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 14:20
1ST & 10
OPP 32
+19
56.6%
Keegan Jones run for 19 yds to the ARIZ 13 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 13:39
1ST & 10
OPP 13
+5
57.6%
Carson Steele run for 5 yds to the ARIZ 8Similar
Q2 13:06
2ND & 5
OPP 8
-7
57.8%
Collin Schlee run for a loss of 7 yards to the ARIZ 15 Collin Schlee fumbled, recovered by UCLA Collin Schlee (13:06) [SG] QB Keeper SCHLEE, Collin rush up the middle for a loss of 7 yards, SCHLEE, Collin fumbled at ARI12 , recovered by UCL SCHLEE, Collin at the ARI15, returned 0 yards to the ARI15, End of Play, clock 12:27.Similar
Q2 12:02
3RD & 12
OPP 15
-8
59.3%
Ethan Garbers sacked by Taylor Upshaw for a loss of 8 yards to the ARIZ 23Similar
Q2 11:34
4TH & 20
OPP 23
+41
61.9%
Blake Glessner 41 Yard Field Goal MissedSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ARIZDrive 6PUNT
13 plays · 37 yds · 5:3562% → 65%
Q2 11:34
1ST & 10
OWN 23
+7
61.7%
Michael Wiley run for 7 yds to the ARIZ 30Similar
Q2 11:10
2ND & 3
OWN 30
+8
62.5%
Michael Wiley run for 8 yds to the ARIZ 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 10:46
2ND & 10
OWN 38
+6
62.7%
Michael Wiley run for 6 yds to the ARIZ 44Similar
Q2 10:45
1ST & 10
OWN 38
0
63.0%
Noah Fifita pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 10:12
3RD & 4
OWN 44
+4
63.2%
Noah Fifita pass complete to Montana Lemonious-Craig for 4 yds to the ARIZ 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 9:42
1ST & 10
OWN 48
0
64.2%
Noah Fifita pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 9:38
2ND & 10
OWN 48
0
64.0%
Jayden de Laura pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 9:30
3RD & 10
OWN 48
+18
63.0%
Noah Fifita run for 18 yds to the UCLA 34 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 8:38
1ST & 10
OPP 34
-5
65.4%
Noah Fifita pass complete to Jacob Cowing for a loss of 5 yards to the UCLA 39Similar
Q2 7:58
2ND & 15
OPP 39
-6
65.3%
Noah Fifita sacked by Keanu Williams and Laiatu Latu for a loss of 6 yards to the UCLA 45Similar
Q2 7:11
3RD & 21
OPP 45
-5
64.9%
Arizona Penalty, Delay Of Game (Noah Fifita) to the 50 yard lineSimilar
Q2 7:00
3RD & 26
50
+10
64.8%
Noah Fifita pass complete to Tanner McLachlan for 10 yds to the UCLA 40Similar
Q2 5:59
4TH & 16
OPP 40
0
64.5%
Kyle Ostendorp punt for 40 yds for a touchbackSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UCLADrive 7PUNT
4 plays · 7 yds · 1:1135% → 33%
Q2 5:52
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+7
64.8%
TJ Harden run for 7 yds to the UCLA 27Similar
Q2 5:22
2ND & 3
OWN 27
0
64.3%
TJ Harden run for no gain to the UCLA 27Similar
Q2 4:52
3RD & 3
OWN 27
0
65.3%
Ethan Garbers pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 4:41
4TH & 3
OWN 27
0
66.6%
Will Powers punt for 43 ydsSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ARIZDrive 8TD
9 plays · 61 yds · 3:0667% → 79%
Q2 4:33
1ST & 10
OWN 39
+4
67.3%
DJ Williams run for 4 yds to the ARIZ 43Similar
Q2 4:03
2ND & 6
OWN 43
+34
68.2%
Noah Fifita pass complete to Tetairoa McMillan for 34 yds to the UCLA 23 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 3:31
1ST & 10
OPP 23
0
69.2%
(03:31) FIFITA, Noah pass deep to the left incomplete thrown to the UCL0, clock 03:27. PENALTY UCL Unsportsmanlike Conduct on MURPHY, Grayson enforced half the distance from the goal, 11 yards from the UCL23 to the UCL12 and results in automatic 1ST DOWN [NHSG]. NO PLAY (replay the down).Similar
Q2 3:26
1ST & 10
OPP 11
+4
69.2%
DJ Williams run for 4 yds to the UCLA 7Similar
Q2 2:43
2ND & 6
OPP 7
+6
69.4%
Jonah Coleman run for 6 yds to the UCLA 1 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 2:15
1ST & GOAL
OPP 1
-3
69.7%
Jonah Coleman run for a loss of 3 yards to the UCLA 4Similar
Q2 1:37
2ND & GOAL
OPP 4
-5
70.2%
Jonah Coleman run for a loss of 5 yards to the UCLA 9Similar
Q2 1:27
3RD & GOAL
OPP 9
+9
79.4%
Noah Fifita pass complete to Jacob Cowing for 9 yds for a TD (Tyler Loop KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UCLADrive 9TD
8 plays · 75 yds · 1:2323% → 36%
Q2 1:26
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+7
76.9%
TJ Harden run for 7 yds to the UCLA 32Similar
Q2 1:07
2ND & 3
OWN 32
0
76.4%
Ethan Garbers pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 1:05
3RD & 3
OWN 32
+5
77.0%
TJ Harden run for 5 yds to the UCLA 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:56
1ST & 10
OWN 37
+8
77.0%
Ethan Garbers pass complete to TJ Harden for 8 yds to the UCLA 45Similar
Q2 0:33
2ND & 2
OWN 45
+11
76.7%
Ethan Garbers pass complete to TJ Harden for 11 yds to the ARIZ 44 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:22
1ST & 10
OPP 44
0
75.9%
Ethan Garbers pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 0:22
2ND & 10
OPP 44
+30
77.0%
Ethan Garbers pass complete to Logan Loya for 30 yds to the ARIZ 14 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:03
1ST & 10
OPP 14
+14
63.6%
Ethan Garbers pass complete to Carsen Ryan for 14 yds for a TD (Blake Glessner KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ARIZDrive 10FG
14 plays · 55 yds · 6:4568% → 75%
Q3 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+6
67.5%
Noah Fifita pass complete to Keyan Burnett for 6 yds to the ARIZ 31Similar
Q3 14:27
2ND & 4
OWN 31
-2
68.7%
Jonah Coleman run for a loss of 2 yards to the ARIZ 29Similar
Q3 13:48
3RD & 6
OWN 29
+8
67.2%
Jonah Coleman run for 8 yds to the ARIZ 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 13:21
1ST & 10
OWN 37
+6
69.2%
Noah Fifita pass complete to Tanner McLachlan for 6 yds to the ARIZ 43Similar
Q3 13:00
2ND & 4
OWN 43
+7
70.6%
Jonah Coleman run for 7 yds to the 50 yard line for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 12:41
1ST & 10
50
+5
70.6%
Michael Wiley run for 5 yds to the UCLA 45Similar
Q3 12:12
2ND & 5
OPP 45
+3
71.5%
Jonah Coleman run for 3 yds to the UCLA 42Similar
Q3 11:35
3RD & 2
OPP 42
+7
71.0%
Noah Fifita pass complete to Tanner McLachlan for 7 yds to the UCLA 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 10:58
1ST & 10
OPP 35
0
72.6%
Noah Fifita pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 10:51
2ND & 10
OPP 35
+17
72.5%
Jonah Coleman run for 17 yds to the UCLA 18 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 10:13
1ST & 10
OPP 18
-7
72.9%
Noah Fifita sacked by Laiatu Latu for a loss of 7 yards to the UCLA 25Similar
Q3 9:32
2ND & 17
OPP 25
-1
74.0%
Jonah Coleman run for a loss of 1 yard to the UCLA 26Similar
Q3 8:53
3RD & 18
OPP 26
+6
72.8%
Noah Fifita pass complete to Jacob Cowing for 6 yds to the UCLA 20Similar
Q3 8:15
4TH & 12
OPP 20
+37
75.4%
Tyler Loop 37 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UCLADrive 11FG
14 plays · 64 yds · 5:4724% → 28%
Q3 8:15
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+6
75.8%
Carson Steele run for 6 yds to the UCLA 31Similar
Q3 7:34
2ND & 4
OWN 31
+5
75.6%
Ethan Garbers pass complete to Ethan Garbers for 5 yds to the UCLA 36Similar
Q3 7:22
1ST & 10
OWN 36
+5
75.7%
Ethan Garbers pass complete to J. Michael Sturdivant for 5 yds to the UCLA 41Similar
Q3 6:50
2ND & 5
OWN 41
+18
75.0%
Carson Steele run for 18 yds to the ARIZ 41 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 6:18
1ST & 10
OPP 41
+11
74.3%
Ethan Garbers pass complete to Carson Steele for 11 yds to the ARIZ 30 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 5:43
1ST & 10
OPP 30
+6
73.4%
Collin Schlee run for 6 yds to the ARIZ 24Similar
Q3 4:57
2ND & 4
OPP 24
+3
73.8%
TJ Harden run for 3 yds to the ARIZ 21Similar
Q3 4:38
3RD & 1
OPP 21
+4
75.3%
TJ Harden run for 4 yds to the ARIZ 17 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 4:20
1ST & 10
OPP 17
0
74.0%
TJ Harden run for no gain to the ARIZ 17Similar
Q3 3:47
2ND & 10
OPP 17
+10
74.6%
Ethan Garbers pass complete to Ryan Cragun for 10 yds to the ARIZ 7 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 3:25
1ST & GOAL
OPP 7
+3
74.5%
Carson Steele run for 3 yds to the ARIZ 4Similar
Q3 2:53
2ND & GOAL
OPP 4
0
74.7%
Ethan Garbers pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 2:41
3RD & GOAL
OPP 4
-7
76.3%
Ethan Garbers sacked by Jacob Manu for a loss of 7 yards to the ARIZ 11Similar
Q3 2:28
4TH & GOAL
OPP 11
+29
72.0%
Blake Glessner 29 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ARIZDrive 12TD
7 plays · 75 yds · 2:5178% → 93%
Q3 2:28
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+13
77.5%
Noah Fifita pass complete to Tanner McLachlan for 13 yds to the ARIZ 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 2:06
1ST & 10
OWN 38
+3
79.2%
Jonah Coleman run for 3 yds to the ARIZ 41Similar
Q3 1:33
2ND & 7
OWN 41
-1
79.9%
Noah Fifita pass complete to Jacob Cowing for a loss of 1 yard to the ARIZ 40Similar
Q3 0:56
3RD & 8
OWN 40
+30
80.3%
Noah Fifita pass complete to Tanner McLachlan for 30 yds to the UCLA 30 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 0:10
1ST & 10
OPP 30
+7
84.3%
Jonah Coleman run for 7 yds to the UCLA 23Similar
Q4 15:00
2ND & 3
OPP 23
0
84.3%
(15:00) COLEMAN, Jonah rush to the right for no gain to the UCL23 (JONES JR., Carl), clock 14:54. PENALTY UCL Face mask on MURPHY, Gabriel enforced half the distance from the goal, 11 yards from the UCL23 to the UCL12 and results in automatic 1ST DOWN [SG]. NO PLAY (replay the down).Similar
Q4 14:37
1ST & 10
OPP 11
+11
92.6%
Noah Fifita pass complete to Tetairoa McMillan for 11 yds for a TD (Tyler Loop KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UCLADrive 13PUNT
4 plays · -7 yds · 0:3211% → 10%
Q4 14:37
1ST & 10
OWN 25
-7
89.4%
Ethan Garbers sacked by Russell Davis II for a loss of 7 yards to the UCLA 18Similar
Q4 14:17
2ND & 17
OWN 18
0
89.6%
Dante Moore pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 14:14
3RD & 17
OWN 18
0
89.9%
Dante Moore pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 14:05
4TH & 17
OWN 18
0
90.1%
Will Powers punt for 44 yds, fair catch by Jacob Cowing at the ARIZ 28Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ARIZDrive 14PUNT
5 plays · 6 yds · 2:4493% → 93%
Q4 14:01
1ST & 10
OWN 28
+14
92.6%
Noah Fifita pass complete to Jacob Cowing for 14 yds to the ARIZ 42 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 13:28
1ST & 10
OWN 42
-1
93.2%
DJ Williams run for a loss of 1 yard to the ARIZ 41Similar
Q4 12:51
2ND & 11
OWN 41
-1
93.3%
Noah Fifita sacked by Jay Toia for a loss of 1 yard to the ARIZ 40Similar
Q4 12:09
3RD & 12
OWN 40
-6
93.3%
Noah Fifita pass complete to Jonah Coleman for a loss of 6 yards to the ARIZ 34Similar
Q4 11:17
4TH & 18
OWN 34
0
93.1%
punt blocked by Kain Medrano blocked by Kain MedranoSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UCLADrive 15DOWNS
9 plays · 8 yds · 3:1211% → 7%
Q4 11:14
1ST & 10
OPP 31
+1
88.7%
TJ Harden run for 1 yd to the ARIZ 30Similar
Q4 10:38
2ND & 9
OPP 30
+3
89.7%
TJ Harden run for 3 yds to the ARIZ 27Similar
Q4 10:05
3RD & 6
OPP 27
+8
90.0%
Dante Moore pass complete to Logan Loya for 8 yds to the ARIZ 19 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 9:19
1ST & 10
OPP 19
-5
89.6%
UCLA Penalty, False Start (Carsen Ryan) to the ARIZ 24Similar
Q4 9:15
1ST & 15
OPP 24
-2
90.2%
Dante Moore pass complete to Colson Yankoff for a loss of 2 yards to the ARIZ 26Similar
Q4 8:45
2ND & 17
OPP 26
+3
90.5%
Dante Moore pass complete to J. Michael Sturdivant for 3 yds to the ARIZ 23Similar
Q4 8:08
3RD & 14
OPP 23
0
91.5%
Dante Moore pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 8:02
4TH & 14
OPP 23
-5
92.6%
UCLA Penalty, False Start (Bruno Fina) to the ARIZ 28Similar
Q4 8:02
4TH & 19
OPP 28
+5
92.7%
Dante Moore pass complete to TJ Harden for 5 yds to the ARIZ 23Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ARIZDrive 16FG
6 plays · 72 yds · 3:1295% → 98%
Q4 7:52
1ST & 10
OWN 23
+66
95.2%
Noah Fifita pass complete to Rayshon Luke for 66 yds to the UCLA 11 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 6:54
1ST & 10
OPP 11
+5
96.1%
Jonah Coleman run for 5 yds to the UCLA 6Similar
Q4 6:09
2ND & 5
OPP 6
+1
96.4%
Jonah Coleman run for 1 yd to the UCLA 5Similar
Q4 5:29
3RD & 4
OPP 5
0
96.5%
Jonah Coleman run for no gain to the UCLA 5Similar
Q4 4:40
4TH & 4
OPP 5
+22
97.8%
Tyler Loop 22 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UCLADrive 17DOWNS
7 plays · 33 yds · 1:353% → 3%
Q4 4:39
1ST & 10
OWN 25
0
97.5%
Collin Schlee pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 4:32
2ND & 10
OWN 25
+7
97.5%
Collin Schlee run for 7 yds to the UCLA 32Similar
Q4 4:03
3RD & 3
OWN 32
+20
97.4%
Collin Schlee run for 20 yds to the ARIZ 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 3:37
1ST & 10
OPP 48
0
97.4%
Collin Schlee pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 3:35
2ND & 10
OPP 48
0
97.4%
Collin Schlee pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 3:31
3RD & 10
OPP 48
+6
97.4%
Collin Schlee run for 6 yds to the ARIZ 42Similar
Q4 3:04
4TH & 4
OPP 42
0
97.4%
Collin Schlee pass incompleteSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ARIZDrive 18END OF 4TH QUARTER
8 plays · 18 yds · 2:3598% → 99%
Q4 2:56
1ST & 10
OWN 42
+6
98.4%
DJ Williams run for 6 yds to the ARIZ 48Similar
Q4 2:14
2ND & 4
OWN 48
-10
98.5%
(02:14) WILLIAMS, DJ rush to the right for a gain of 2 yards to the UCL50 (OLADEJO, Oluwafemi), clock 02:06. PENALTY ARI Holding on BURNETT, Keyan enforced 10 yards from the ARI48 to the ARI38 [SG]. NO PLAY (replay the down).Similar
Q4 2:05
2ND & 14
OWN 38
+4
98.4%
Noah Fifita pass complete to AJ Jones for 4 yds to the ARIZ 42Similar
Q4 1:36
3RD & 10
OWN 42
+19
98.7%
Jonah Coleman run for 19 yds to the UCLA 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 1:31
1ST & 10
OPP 39
+2
99.0%
DJ Williams run for 2 yds to the UCLA 37Similar
Q4 0:39
2ND & 8
OPP 37
0
99.0%
(00:39) Kneel down by FIFITA, Noah at UCL39 (team loss of 2), clock 00:30.Similar
Q4 0:21
3RD & 10
OPP 39
0
99.0%
(00:21) Kneel down by FIFITA, Noah at UCL40 (team loss of 1), clock 00:17.Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
TD · Q2 0:03
Ethan Garbers pass complete to Carsen Ryan for 14 yds for a TD (Blake Glessner KICK)
-13.3
TD · Q2 1:27
Noah Fifita pass complete to Jacob Cowing for 9 yds for a TD (Tyler Loop KICK)
+10.1
TD · Q4 14:37
Noah Fifita pass complete to Tetairoa McMillan for 11 yds for a TD (Tyler Loop KICK)
+8.3
YardLine · model v10Model estimate - not betting advice · Data provided by CollegeFootballData.com