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COLO

Colorado 16 at UCLA 28

UCLA
2023 · Week 9 · Oct 28, 2023 · Rose Bowl
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Win probability · UCLA
modelUCLA aheadCOLO aheadconfidence bandkey playUCLA scoreCOLO score
0%25%50%75%100%Q1Q2Q3Q4FGFGTDTDFGTDTDTDEnd of Game
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q4 0:00 · Alton McCaskill run for 5 yds to the COLO 29 for a 1ST down
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Pregame priorHome team on offenseScore differentialGarbage-time factorScore diff ÷ offense timeoutsScore diff ÷ seconds remaining
+35.0+17.50−17.5−35.0Q1Q2Q3Q4
This game in five plays
  1. TD · Q3 14:25: Moliki Matavao 26 Yd pass from Ethan Garbers (RJ Lopez Kick) — UCLA win probability +9.9 pts (now 86%) (top driver: UCLA has the ball).
  2. FG · Q3 4:13: Alejandro Mata 34 Yd Field Goal — COLO win probability +7.6 pts (now 26%) (top driver: COLO has the ball).
  3. TD · Q4 14:13: TJ Harden 3 Yd Run (RJ Lopez Kick) — UCLA win probability +10.9 pts (now 92%) (top driver: UCLA has the ball).
  4. TD · Q4 6:34: Collin Schlee run for 7 yds for a TD (RJ Lopez KICK) — UCLA win probability +3.4 pts (now 99%) (top driver: UCLA has the ball).
  5. TD · Q4 2:37: Shedeur Sanders pass complete to Jimmy Horn Jr. for 18 yds for a TD (Alejandro Mata KICK) — COLO win probability +3.5 pts (now 6%) (top driver: COLO has the ball).
Was that the right call?

Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works

Fourth downs
UCLA made the numbers' call on 1 of 3COLO made the numbers' call on 9 of 9
  1. Q1 10:40COLO 4th & 10 at UCLA 13, tied
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 17.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    17.1%−0.1
    26% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    17.2%
    85% to make
    Punt
    16.8%−0.4
    average punt
  2. Q1 7:44COLO 4th & 9 at UCLA 21, up 3
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 18.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    18.4%−0.1
    30% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    18.5%
    74% to make
    Punt
    17.9%−0.6
    average punt
  3. Q1 5:34UCLA 4th & 9 at UCLA 35, down 6
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 79.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    79.4%−0.2
    31% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    79.6%
    average punt
  4. Q1 3:55COLO 4th & 7 at COLO 32, up 6
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 21.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    21.2%−0.4
    36% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    21.6%
    average punt
  5. Q1 1:34UCLA 4th & 12 at COLO 37, down 6
    Close callWent for it · 77.2% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    77.1%−0.2
    24% to convert
    Field goal
    77.3%
    40% to make
    Punt
    77.2%−0.1
    average punt
  6. Q2 12:42COLO 4th & 24 at COLO 11, down 1
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 19.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    18.8%−1.3
    6% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    20.1%
    average punt
  7. Q2 9:12COLO 4th & 15 at COLO 39, down 1
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 21.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    20.3%−0.9
    17% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    21.1%
    average punt
  8. Q2 5:54COLO 4th & 5 at COLO 46, down 1
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 22.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    22.6%−0.2
    41% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    22.8%
    average punt
  9. Q2 1:13COLO 4th & 15 at COLO 15, down 1
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 22.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    19.9%−2.5
    16% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    22.4%
    average punt
  10. Q3 12:56COLO 4th & 6 at COLO 29, down 8
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 15.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    15.5%−0.4
    39% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    16.0%
    average punt
  11. Q3 7:56UCLA 4th & 8 at COLO 40, up 8
    Close callPunted · 84.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    84.9%
    34% to convert
    Field goal
    84.2%−0.7
    34% to make
    PuntTheir call
    84.5%−0.4
    average punt
  12. Q4 12:38COLO 4th & 20 at COLO 31, down 12
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 8.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    7.2%−1.7
    9% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    8.8%
    average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
UCLA made the numbers' call on 3 of 4COLO made the numbers' call on 0 of 1
  1. Q2 14:19UCLA Touchdown, tied before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    78.9%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    78.9%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  2. Q3 14:25UCLA Touchdown, up 7 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    82.6%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    82.5%−0.1
    45% to convert
  3. Q4 14:13UCLA Touchdown, up 11 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    89.7%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    89.6%−0.1
    45% to convert
  4. Q4 6:34UCLA Touchdown, up 18 before the try
    Close callKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    97.8%−0.4
    97% to make
    Go for two
    98.2%
    45% to convert
  5. Q4 2:37COLO Touchdown, down 13 before the try
    Close callKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    3.5%−<0.1
    97% to make
    Go for two
    3.6%
    45% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chart
COLODrive 1FG
14 plays · 62 yds · 4:1215% → 17%
Q1 14:52
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+9
84.7%
Shedeur Sanders pass complete to Dylan Edwards for 9 yds to the COLO 34Similar
Q1 14:45
2ND & 1
OWN 34
+3
84.6%
Dylan Edwards run for 3 yds to the COLO 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 13:43
1ST & 10
OWN 37
+4
84.3%
Shedeur Sanders pass complete to Travis Hunter for 4 yds to the COLO 41Similar
Q1 13:43
2ND & 6
OWN 41
+12
84.3%
Shedeur Sanders pass complete to Javon Antonio for 12 yds to the UCLA 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 13:19
1ST & 10
OPP 47
-3
84.1%
Shedeur Sanders sacked by Laiatu Latu for a loss of 3 yards to the 50 yard lineSimilar
Q1 12:47
2ND & 13
50
+10
84.0%
Shedeur Sanders pass complete to Anthony Hankerson for 10 yds to the UCLA 40Similar
Q1 12:13
3RD & 3
OPP 40
+4
83.7%
Shedeur Sanders pass complete to Anthony Hankerson for 4 yds to the UCLA 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 11:56
1ST & 10
OPP 36
+11
83.6%
Shedeur Sanders pass complete to Anthony Hankerson for 11 yds to the UCLA 25 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 11:21
1ST & 10
OPP 25
+12
83.4%
Shedeur Sanders pass complete to Michael Harrison for 12 yds to the UCLA 13 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 10:56
1ST & 10
OPP 13
0
83.2%
Shedeur Sanders pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 10:51
2ND & 10
OPP 13
0
83.1%
Shedeur Sanders pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 10:46
3RD & 10
OPP 13
0
83.2%
Shedeur Sanders pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 10:40
4TH & 10
OPP 13
+31
83.2%
Alejandro Mata 31 Yd Field Goal Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UCLADrive 2INT
4 plays · 5 yds · 1:0783% → 83%
Q1 10:35
1ST & 10
OWN 25
0
83.2%
Ethan Garbers pass complete to J. Michael Sturdivant for no gain to the UCLA 25Similar
Q1 9:58
2ND & 10
OWN 25
+5
83.0%
Carson Steele run for 5 yds to the UCLA 30Similar
Q1 9:28
3RD & 5
OWN 30
0
82.7%
Ethan Garbers pass intercepted Travis Hunter return for no gain to the UCLA 36Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
COLODrive 3FG
7 plays · 15 yds · 1:3818% → 19%
Q1 9:22
1ST & 10
OPP 36
0
82.5%
Shedeur Sanders pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 9:16
2ND & 10
OPP 36
+8
82.5%
Dylan Edwards run for 8 yds to the UCLA 28Similar
Q1 8:40
3RD & 2
OPP 28
+6
82.1%
Shedeur Sanders pass complete to Javon Antonio for 6 yds to the UCLA 22 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 8:12
1ST & 10
OPP 22
+1
81.8%
Shedeur Sanders pass complete to Jimmy Horn Jr. for 1 yd to the UCLA 21Similar
Q1 7:56
2ND & 9
OPP 21
0
81.7%
Shedeur Sanders pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 7:50
3RD & 9
OPP 21
0
81.9%
Shedeur Sanders pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 7:44
4TH & 9
OPP 21
+39
81.4%
Alejandro Mata 39 Yd Field Goal Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UCLADrive 4PUNT
7 plays · 16 yds · 1:5082% → 80%
Q1 7:24
1ST & 10
OWN 19
+2
81.5%
Ethan Garbers pass complete to Kyle Ford for 2 yds to the UCLA 21Similar
Q1 6:40
2ND & 8
OWN 21
+13
81.1%
Carson Steele run for 13 yds to the UCLA 34 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 6:25
1ST & 10
OWN 34
0
81.1%
Ethan Garbers pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 5:59
2ND & 10
OWN 34
+1
80.6%
Carson Steele run for 1 yd to the UCLA 35Similar
Q1 5:45
3RD & 9
OWN 35
0
80.3%
Ethan Garbers pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 5:34
4TH & 9
OWN 35
+5
80.0%
Will Powers punt for 55 yds , Xavier Weaver returns for 5 yds to the COLO 15Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
COLODrive 5PUNT
6 plays · 17 yds · 1:1720% → 21%
Q1 5:12
1ST & 10
OWN 15
+7
80.2%
Shedeur Sanders pass complete to Omarion Miller for 7 yds to the COLO 22Similar
Q1 4:47
2ND & 3
OWN 22
+7
79.4%
Shedeur Sanders run for 7 yds to the COLO 29 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 4:44
1ST & 10
OWN 29
0
79.4%
Shedeur Sanders pass incomplete to Omarion MillerSimilar
Q1 4:23
2ND & 10
OWN 29
+3
79.3%
Shedeur Sanders pass complete to Dylan Edwards for 3 yds to the COLO 32Similar
Q1 4:05
3RD & 7
OWN 32
0
79.2%
Shedeur Sanders pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 3:55
4TH & 7
OWN 32
+9
79.4%
Mark Vassett punt for 37 yds , Logan Loya returns for 9 yds to the UCLA 40Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UCLADrive 6TD
12 plays · 60 yds · 4:3680% → 81%
Q1 3:55
1ST & 10
OWN 40
+15
80.1%
Colorado Penalty, Face Mask (15 yards) to the COLO 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 3:46
1ST & 10
OPP 45
+10
80.4%
TJ Harden run for 10 yds to the COLO 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 3:26
1ST & 10
OPP 35
0
80.6%
TJ Harden run for no gain to the COLO 35Similar
Q1 3:05
2ND & 10
OPP 35
-5
80.5%
UCLA Penalty, False Start (-5 Yards) to the COLO 40Similar
Q1 2:46
2ND & 15
OPP 40
+8
79.4%
TJ Harden run for 8 yds to the COLO 32Similar
Q1 2:12
3RD & 7
OPP 32
-5
79.3%
Ethan Garbers sacked by Jordan Domineck for a loss of 5 yards to the COLO 37Similar
Q1 1:34
4TH & 12
OPP 37
+13
77.8%
Ethan Garbers run for 13 yds to the COLO 24 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 1:09
1ST & 10
OPP 24
+5
79.4%
Colorado Penalty, Substitution Infraction (5 Yards) to the COLO 19Similar
Q1 1:01
1ST & 5
OPP 19
+10
79.3%
TJ Harden run for 10 yds to the COLO 9 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 0:20
1ST & GOAL
OPP 9
+1
79.0%
TJ Harden run for 1 yd to the COLO 8Similar
Q2 14:49
2ND & GOAL
OPP 8
+5
78.6%
Ethan Garbers run for 5 yds to the COLO 3Similar
Q2 14:19
3RD & GOAL
OPP 3
+3
81.3%
Carson Steele 3 Yd pass from Ethan Garbers (RJ Lopez Kick)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
COLODrive 7PUNT
5 plays · -14 yds · 1:2320% → 19%
Q2 14:05
1ST & 10
OWN 25
-5
80.3%
Anthony Hankerson run for a loss of 5 yards to the COLO 20Similar
Q2 13:34
2ND & 15
OWN 20
0
80.3%
Shedeur Sanders pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 13:27
3RD & 15
OWN 20
-9
80.7%
Shedeur Sanders sacked by Laiatu Latu and Grayson Murphy for a loss of 9 yards to the COLO 11Similar
Q2 12:42
4TH & 24
OWN 11
0
80.8%
Mark Vassett punt for 34 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the COLO 45Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UCLADrive 8FUMBLE
2 plays · 25 yds · 0:2481% → 81%
Q2 12:30
1ST & 10
OPP 45
+7
81.1%
Carson Steele run for 7 yds to the COLO 38Similar
Q2 12:06
2ND & 3
OPP 38
+18
81.0%
Carson Steele run for 18 yds to the COLO 20 Carson Steele fumbled, recovered by COLO Omarion Cooper.Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
COLODrive 9PUNT
9 plays · 19 yds · 2:4520% → 21%
Q2 11:57
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+13
79.7%
Shedeur Sanders run for 13 yds to the COLO 33 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 11:24
1ST & 10
OWN 33
+6
79.2%
Shedeur Sanders pass complete to Kaleb Mathis for 6 yds to the COLO 39Similar
Q2 11:07
2ND & 4
OWN 39
+5
78.4%
Shedeur Sanders pass complete to Kaleb Mathis for 5 yds to the COLO 44 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 10:47
1ST & 10
OWN 44
0
78.2%
Shedeur Sanders pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 10:35
2ND & 10
OWN 44
-3
78.5%
Shedeur Sanders pass complete to Kaleb Mathis for a loss of 3 yards to the COLO 41Similar
Q2 9:57
3RD & 13
OWN 41
-7
78.9%
Shedeur Sanders sacked by Gabriel Murphy for a loss of 7 yards to the COLO 34Similar
Q2 9:12
4TH & 20
OWN 34
+5
79.7%
UCLA Penalty, Defensive Offside (5 Yards) to the COLO 39Similar
Q2 9:12
4TH & 15
OWN 39
0
79.5%
Mark Vassett punt for 42 yds, fair catch by Logan Loya at the UCLA 19Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UCLADrive 10INT
3 plays · 10 yds · 1:0680% → 80%
Q2 9:05
1ST & 10
OWN 19
+10
79.5%
Collin Schlee run for 10 yds to the UCLA 29 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 8:34
1ST & 10
OWN 29
0
79.6%
TJ Harden run for no gain to the UCLA 29Similar
Q2 7:59
2ND & 10
OWN 29
+10
79.7%
Collin Schlee pass intercepted Travis Hunter return for a loss of 10 yards to the COLO 41Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
COLODrive 11PUNT
4 plays · 5 yds · 1:5923% → 22%
Q2 7:53
1ST & 10
OWN 41
-2
77.5%
Dylan Edwards run for a loss of 2 yards to the COLO 39Similar
Q2 7:26
2ND & 12
OWN 39
-4
78.1%
Shedeur Sanders sacked by Gary Smith III for a loss of 4 yards to the COLO 35Similar
Q2 6:36
3RD & 16
OWN 35
+11
79.0%
Shedeur Sanders pass complete to Xavier Weaver for 11 yds to the COLO 46Similar
Q2 5:54
4TH & 5
OWN 46
0
78.1%
Mark Vassett punt for 54 yds for a touchbackSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UCLADrive 12MISSED FG
13 plays · 74 yds · 4:0979% → 79%
Q2 5:46
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+17
79.1%
Ethan Garbers run for 17 yds to the UCLA 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 5:02
1ST & 10
OWN 37
+21
79.5%
Ethan Garbers pass complete to Carsen Ryan for 21 yds to the COLO 42 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 4:47
1ST & 10
OPP 42
+5
80.9%
TJ Harden run for 5 yds to the COLO 37Similar
Q2 4:35
2ND & 5
OPP 37
-5
80.9%
UCLA Penalty, Ineligible Downfield on Pass (-5 Yards) to the COLO 42Similar
Q2 4:04
2ND & 10
OPP 42
+16
80.7%
Ethan Garbers pass complete to Kyle Ford for 16 yds to the COLO 26 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 3:47
1ST & 10
OPP 26
+3
81.4%
Ethan Garbers run for 3 yds to the COLO 23Similar
Q2 3:23
2ND & 7
OPP 23
+3
81.3%
Ethan Garbers pass complete to Carsen Ryan for 3 yds to the COLO 20Similar
Q2 3:23
3RD & 4
OPP 20
+11
80.6%
Colorado Penalty, Personal Foul - Targeting (11 Yards) to the COLO 9 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 2:41
1ST & GOAL
OPP 9
-4
81.0%
TJ Harden run for a loss of 4 yards to the COLO 13Similar
Q2 2:40
2ND & GOAL
OPP 13
0
80.9%
Ethan Garbers pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 2:29
3RD & GOAL
OPP 13
+7
79.7%
Ethan Garbers pass complete to Logan Loya for 7 yds to the COLO 6Similar
Q2 1:37
4TH & 0
OPP 6
+24
79.2%
RJ Lopez 24 yd FG MISSEDSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
COLODrive 13PUNT
6 plays · -5 yds · 0:2323% → 21%
Q2 1:36
1ST & 10
OWN 20
-8
76.7%
Shedeur Sanders sacked by Grayson Murphy for a loss of 8 yards to the COLO 12 Shedeur Sanders fumbled, recovered by COLO J.J. Hawkins , return for 0 yardsSimilar
Q2 1:27
2ND & 18
OWN 12
0
76.9%
Shedeur Sanders pass incomplete to Jimmy Horn Jr.Similar
Q2 1:13
3RD & 18
OWN 12
+3
77.6%
Dylan Edwards run for 3 yds to the COLO 15Similar
Q2 1:13
4TH & 15
OWN 15
0
79.0%
Mark Vassett punt for 44 yds , Logan Loya returns for no gain to the UCLA 41Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UCLADrive 14FUMBLE
4 plays · 53 yds · 0:4179% → 81%
Q2 1:05
1ST & 10
OWN 41
+5
78.8%
Ethan Garbers run for 5 yds to the UCLA 46Similar
Q2 0:50
2ND & 5
OWN 46
+27
79.2%
Ethan Garbers pass complete to Ryan Cragun for 27 yds to the COLO 27 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:36
1ST & 10
OPP 27
+11
80.6%
Ethan Garbers pass complete to Carson Steele for 11 yds to the COLO 16 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:24
1ST & 10
OPP 16
+10
80.5%
Carson Steele run for 10 yds to the COLO 6 Carson Steele fumbled, recovered by COLO Cam'Ron Silmon-Craig.Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
COLODrive 15END OF HALF
3 plays · 13 yds · 0:0622% → 23%
Q2 0:20
1ST & 10
OWN 6
+4
77.7%
Anthony Hankerson run for 4 yds to the COLO 10Similar
Q2 0:14
2ND & 6
OWN 10
+9
77.3%
Anthony Hankerson run for 9 yds to the COLO 19 for a 1ST downSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UCLADrive 16TD
3 plays · 75 yds · 0:0577% → 86%
Q3 14:30
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+49
76.5%
Ethan Garbers pass complete to Logan Loya for 49 yds to the COLO 26 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 14:25
1ST & 10
OPP 26
+26
86.4%
Moliki Matavao 26 Yd pass from Ethan Garbers (RJ Lopez Kick)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
COLODrive 17PUNT
5 plays · 4 yds · 1:2616% → 15%
Q3 14:22
1ST & 10
OWN 25
0
83.9%
Shedeur Sanders pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 13:53
2ND & 10
OWN 25
+2
84.0%
Shedeur Sanders pass complete to Travis Hunter for 2 yds to the COLO 27Similar
Q3 13:39
3RD & 8
OWN 27
+2
84.5%
Shedeur Sanders run for 2 yds to the COLO 29Similar
Q3 12:56
4TH & 6
OWN 29
-5
84.9%
Mark Vassett punt for 43 yds , Logan Loya returns for a loss of 5 yards to the UCLA 23Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UCLADrive 18PUNT
10 plays · 37 yds · 4:3385% → 85%
Q3 12:29
1ST & 10
OWN 23
+4
84.9%
Ethan Garbers run for 4 yds to the UCLA 27Similar
Q3 12:10
2ND & 6
OWN 27
0
84.8%
TJ Harden run for no gain to the UCLA 27Similar
Q3 12:10
3RD & 6
OWN 27
+6
84.2%
Ethan Garbers pass complete to Keegan Jones for 6 yds to the UCLA 33 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 11:13
1ST & 10
OWN 33
+11
84.8%
Ethan Garbers pass complete to Logan Loya for 11 yds to the UCLA 44 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 10:49
1ST & 10
OWN 44
+2
86.0%
TJ Harden run for 2 yds to the UCLA 46Similar
Q3 10:30
2ND & 8
OWN 46
+12
85.9%
TJ Harden run for 12 yds to the COLO 42 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 9:38
1ST & 10
OPP 42
+2
86.3%
Anthony Adkins run for 2 yds to the COLO 40Similar
Q3 9:06
2ND & 8
OPP 40
-1
86.3%
Ethan Garbers sacked by LaVonta Bentley for a loss of 1 yard to the COLO 41Similar
Q3 8:34
3RD & 9
OPP 41
+1
85.6%
TJ Harden run for 1 yd to the COLO 40Similar
Q3 7:56
4TH & 8
OPP 40
0
85.0%
Will Powers punt for 40 yds for a touchbackSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
COLODrive 19FG
11 plays · 64 yds · 3:4017% → 26%
Q3 7:53
1ST & 10
OWN 20
0
83.5%
Shedeur Sanders pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 7:39
2ND & 10
OWN 20
+1
83.7%
Shedeur Sanders pass complete to Jimmy Horn Jr. for 1 yd to the COLO 21Similar
Q3 7:25
3RD & 9
OWN 21
-5
84.4%
Colorado Penalty, False Start (-5 Yards) to the COLO 16Similar
Q3 6:59
3RD & 14
OWN 16
+19
84.6%
Shedeur Sanders pass complete to Jimmy Horn Jr. for 4 yds to the COLO 20, UCLA Penalty, Roughing Passer (15 Yards) to the COLO 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 6:42
1ST & 10
OWN 35
+5
83.8%
UCLA Penalty, Delay of Game (5 Yards) to the COLO 40Similar
Q3 6:17
1ST & 5
OWN 40
+6
82.6%
Shedeur Sanders pass complete to Xavier Weaver for 6 yds to the COLO 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 5:53
1ST & 10
OWN 46
+45
82.6%
Shedeur Sanders pass complete to Xavier Weaver for 45 yds to the UCLA 9 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 5:28
1ST & GOAL
OPP 9
+1
80.5%
Shedeur Sanders run for 1 yd to the UCLA 8Similar
Q3 4:48
2ND & GOAL
OPP 8
-8
80.9%
Shedeur Sanders sacked by Laiatu Latu and Gabriel Murphy for a loss of 8 yards to the UCLA 16Similar
Q3 4:13
3RD & 0
OPP 16
0
81.6%
Shedeur Sanders pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 4:13
4TH & 0
OPP 16
+34
74.0%
Alejandro Mata 34 Yd Field Goal Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UCLADrive 20TD
16 plays · 80 yds · 4:1978% → 92%
Q3 3:32
1ST & 10
OWN 20
-4
77.7%
Ethan Garbers sacked by Jordan Domineck for a loss of 4 yards to the UCLA 16Similar
Q3 3:26
2ND & 14
OWN 16
+15
77.2%
Colorado Penalty, Defensive Pass Interference (15 Yards) to the UCLA 31 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 3:16
1ST & 10
OWN 31
+15
78.0%
Ethan Garbers pass complete to Logan Loya for 15 yds to the UCLA 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 2:50
1ST & 10
OWN 46
+1
79.7%
TJ Harden run for 1 yd to the UCLA 47Similar
Q3 2:16
2ND & 9
OWN 47
-10
79.4%
UCLA Penalty, Offensive Holding (-10 Yards) to the UCLA 37Similar
Q3 1:47
2ND & 19
OWN 37
+12
77.5%
Ethan Garbers pass complete to Kam Brown for 12 yds to the UCLA 49Similar
Q3 1:20
3RD & 7
OWN 49
+14
78.4%
Ethan Garbers pass complete to Logan Loya for 14 yds to the COLO 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 1:15
1ST & 10
OPP 37
0
80.2%
Ethan Garbers pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 1:07
2ND & 10
OPP 37
+23
80.0%
TJ Harden run for 23 yds to the COLO 14 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 0:36
1ST & 10
OPP 14
+6
80.9%
Ethan Garbers pass complete to Kyle Ford for 6 yds to the COLO 8Similar
Q3 0:00
2ND & 4
OPP 8
+2
80.8%
Carson Steele run for 2 yds to the COLO 6Similar
Q4 14:36
3RD & 2
OPP 6
+3
79.5%
Carson Steele run for 3 yds to the COLO 3 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 14:23
1ST & GOAL
OPP 3
0
80.8%
Ethan Garbers pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 14:18
2ND & GOAL
OPP 3
0
80.7%
Ethan Garbers pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 14:13
3RD & GOAL
OPP 3
+3
91.7%
TJ Harden 3 Yd Run (RJ Lopez Kick)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
COLODrive 21PUNT
7 plays · 6 yds · 1:249% → 8%
Q4 14:02
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+1
90.9%
Shedeur Sanders pass complete to Travis Hunter for 1 yd to the COLO 26Similar
Q4 13:46
2ND & 9
OWN 26
+15
91.0%
UCLA Penalty, Defensive Pass Interference (15 Yards) to the COLO 41 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 13:35
1ST & 10
OWN 41
0
89.6%
Shedeur Sanders pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 13:20
2ND & 10
OWN 41
+2
90.2%
Shedeur Sanders run for 2 yds to the COLO 43Similar
Q4 12:56
3RD & 8
OWN 43
-12
90.3%
Shedeur Sanders sacked by Carl Jones Jr. for a loss of 12 yards to the COLO 31 Colorado Penalty, Intentional Grounding (Yards) to the COLO 31Similar
Q4 12:38
4TH & 20
OWN 31
0
91.6%
Mark Vassett punt for 44 yds , Logan Loya returns for no gain to the UCLA 25Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UCLADrive 22TD
11 plays · 75 yds · 5:5693% → 99%
Q4 12:30
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+6
92.9%
Collin Schlee run for 6 yds to the UCLA 31Similar
Q4 11:32
2ND & 4
OWN 31
0
93.7%
TJ Harden run for no gain to the UCLA 31Similar
Q4 11:11
3RD & 4
OWN 31
+5
93.5%
Ethan Garbers pass complete to Logan Loya for 5 yds to the UCLA 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 10:26
1ST & 10
OWN 36
+3
93.8%
TJ Harden run for 3 yds to the UCLA 39Similar
Q4 9:45
2ND & 7
OWN 39
+3
94.2%
TJ Harden run for 3 yds to the UCLA 42Similar
Q4 9:20
3RD & 4
OWN 42
+10
94.1%
Ethan Garbers pass complete to Logan Loya for 10 yds to the COLO 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 8:45
1ST & 10
OPP 48
+25
94.6%
Ethan Garbers pass complete to TJ Harden for 25 yds to the COLO 23 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 7:43
1ST & 10
OPP 23
+3
94.7%
Collin Schlee run for 3 yds to the COLO 20Similar
Q4 7:22
2ND & 7
OPP 20
+11
95.0%
Carson Steele run for 11 yds to the COLO 9 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 7:10
1ST & GOAL
OPP 9
+2
95.4%
Carson Steele run for 2 yds to the COLO 7Similar
Q4 6:34
2ND & GOAL
OPP 7
+7
98.7%
Collin Schlee run for 7 yds for a TD (RJ Lopez KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
COLODrive 23TD
12 plays · 86 yds · 3:432% → 6%
Q4 6:20
1ST & 10
OWN 14
+8
97.7%
Sy'veon Wilkerson run for 8 yds to the COLO 22Similar
Q4 5:50
2ND & 2
OWN 22
+15
98.0%
Shedeur Sanders pass complete to Xavier Weaver for 15 yds to the COLO 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 5:32
1ST & 10
OWN 37
+3
98.1%
Sy'veon Wilkerson run for 3 yds to the COLO 40Similar
Q4 5:15
2ND & 7
OWN 40
+15
98.1%
UCLA Penalty, Defensive Pass Interference (15 Yards) to the UCLA 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 5:01
1ST & 10
OPP 45
+9
98.0%
Shedeur Sanders pass complete to Xavier Weaver for 9 yds to the UCLA 36Similar
Q4 4:50
2ND & 1
OPP 36
-9
97.9%
Colorado Penalty, Offensive Holding (-9 Yards) to the UCLA 45Similar
Q4 4:25
2ND & 10
OPP 45
+4
98.1%
Shedeur Sanders pass complete to Jimmy Horn Jr. for 4 yds to the UCLA 41Similar
Q4 3:59
3RD & 6
OPP 41
+7
98.1%
Shedeur Sanders pass complete to Jimmy Horn Jr. for 7 yds to the UCLA 34 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 3:31
1ST & 10
OPP 34
+9
97.9%
Alton McCaskill run for 9 yds to the UCLA 25Similar
Q4 2:57
2ND & 1
OPP 25
+7
97.8%
Shedeur Sanders pass complete to Kaleb Mathis for 7 yds to the UCLA 18 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 2:37
1ST & 10
OPP 18
+18
94.3%
Shedeur Sanders pass complete to Jimmy Horn Jr. for 18 yds for a TD (Alejandro Mata KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UCLADrive 24PUNT
5 plays · 3 yds · 1:3397% → 98%
Q4 2:28
1ST & 10
OWN 35
+2
96.6%
TJ Harden run for 2 yds to the UCLA 37Similar
Q4 1:02
2ND & 8
OWN 37
+1
97.2%
Carson Steele run for 1 yd to the UCLA 38Similar
Q4 0:55
3RD & 7
OWN 38
0
97.9%
Will Powers punt for 44 yds, fair catch by Xavier Weaver at the COLO 18Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
COLODrive 25END OF GAME
3 plays · 11 yds · 0:453% → 3%
Q4 0:45
1ST & 10
OWN 18
+6
97.4%
Shedeur Sanders run for 6 yds to the COLO 24Similar
Q4 0:24
2ND & 4
OWN 24
0
97.0%
Shedeur Sanders pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 0:00
3RD & 4
OWN 24
+5
97.4%
Alton McCaskill run for 5 yds to the COLO 29 for a 1ST downSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
TD · Q4 14:13
TJ Harden 3 Yd Run (RJ Lopez Kick)
+10.9
TD · Q3 14:25
Moliki Matavao 26 Yd pass from Ethan Garbers (RJ Lopez Kick)
+9.9
FG · Q3 4:13
Alejandro Mata 34 Yd Field Goal
-7.6
YardLine · model v10Model estimate - not betting advice · Data provided by CollegeFootballData.com