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WASH

Washington 42 at Stanford 33

STAN
2023 · Week 9 · Oct 28, 2023 · Stanford Stadium
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Win probability · STAN
modelSTAN aheadWASH aheadconfidence bandkey playSTAN scoreWASH score
0%25%50%75%100%Q1Q2Q3Q4TDTDTDTDFGFGTDTDTDTDTDTDEnd of Game
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q4 13:11 · Aidan Flintoft punt for 40 yds
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Pregame priorHome team on offenseScore differentialGarbage-time factorScore diff ÷ seconds remainingScore diff ÷ offense timeouts
+46.5+23.30−23.3−46.5Q1Q2Q3Q4Play 141Pregame prior−17.5Home team on offense−15.4Score differential−5.8Garbage-time factor−6.9Score diff ÷ seconds remaining−3.0Score diff ÷ offense timeouts−2.6
This game in five plays
  1. TD · Q3 10:01: Ashton Daniels pass complete to Elic Ayomanor for 39 yds for a TD (Two-Point Conversion failed) — STAN win probability +10.0 pts (now 23%) (top driver: Not a blowout margin).
  2. TD · Q3 1:17: Ashton Daniels run for 2 yds for a TD (Joshua Karty KICK) — STAN win probability +18.7 pts (now 34%) (top driver: STAN has the ball).
  3. TD · Q4 14:14: Michael Penix Jr. pass complete to Devin Culp for 24 yds for a TD (Grady Gross KICK) — WASH win probability +11.7 pts (now 88%) (top driver: WASH has the ball).
  4. TD · Q4 6:46: Justin Lamson 2 Yd Run (Joshua Karty Kick) — STAN win probability +30.3 pts (now 51%) (top driver: STAN has the ball).
  5. TD · Q4 1:36: Dillon Johnson 13 Yd Run (Grady Gross Kick) — WASH win probability +8.4 pts (now 96%) (top driver: WASH has the ball).
Was that the right call?

Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works

Fourth downs
STAN made the numbers' call on 7 of 10WASH made the numbers' call on 5 of 5
  1. Q1 9:07STAN 4th & 22 at STAN 36, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 7.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    7.1%−0.2
    8% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    7.3%
    average punt
  2. Q1 4:30STAN 4th & 3 at STAN 35, down 7
    Close callPunted · 7.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    7.9%
    52% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    7.9%−<0.1
    average punt
  3. Q1 3:38WASH 4th & 5 at WASH 23, up 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 91.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    91.8%−0.1
    40% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    91.9%
    average punt
  4. Q1 2:01STAN 4th & 7 at STAN 36, down 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 8.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    8.3%−0.1
    37% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    8.4%
    average punt
  5. Q1 0:19WASH 4th & 7 at WASH 28, up 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 90.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    90.9%−0.2
    36% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    91.1%
    average punt
  6. Q2 5:23STAN 4th & 7 at WASH 44, down 7
    Close callPunted · 12.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    11.9%
    37% to convert
    Field goal
    11.3%−0.6
    27% to make
    PuntTheir call
    11.7%−0.2
    average punt
  7. Q2 1:05STAN 4th & 5 at WASH 5, down 14
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 9.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    8.8%−0.1
    33% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    8.9%
    92% to make
    Punt
    7.3%−1.6
    average punt
  8. Q2 0:41WASH 4th & 10 at WASH 25, up 11
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 89.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    88.1%−1.0
    28% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    89.1%
    average punt
  9. Q2 0:41STAN 4th & 20 at STAN 45, down 11
    Close callWent for it · 10.0% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    9.4%−0.5
    10% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    Punt
    9.9%
    average punt
  10. Q3 11:17WASH 4th & 17 at WASH 30, up 8
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 86.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    85.5%−1.4
    14% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    86.9%
    average punt
  11. Q3 6:44WASH 4th & 7 at WASH 46, up 2
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 75.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    75.4%−0.9
    37% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    76.3%
    average punt
  12. Q3 5:23STAN 4th & 19 at STAN 23, down 2
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 24.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    21.1%−5.6
    10% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    26.8%
    average punt
  13. Q4 13:11STAN 4th & 7 at STAN 28, down 9
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 13.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    13.6%−1.1
    36% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    14.8%
    average punt
  14. Q4 3:20STAN 4th & 2 at STAN 28, down 2
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 36.0% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    32.9%
    57% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    Punt
    27.3%−5.6
    average punt
  15. Q4 0:53STAN 4th & 3 at STAN 48, down 9
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 6.5% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    6.5%
    52% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    Punt
    5.9%−0.7
    average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
STAN made the numbers' call on 3 of 4WASH made the numbers' call on 5 of 6
  1. Q1 6:26WASH Touchdown, up 6 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    92.3%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    92.3%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  2. Q2 12:24STAN Touchdown, down 1 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    12.3%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    12.3%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  3. Q2 9:20WASH Touchdown, up 6 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    88.8%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    88.8%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  4. Q2 5:09WASH Touchdown, up 13 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    91.1%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    91.1%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  5. Q3 10:01STAN Touchdown, down 2 before the try
    Close callWent for two · failed
    Kick
    24.3%
    97% to make
    Go for twoTheir call
    24.1%−0.2
    45% to convert
  6. Q3 3:55WASH Touchdown, up 8 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    87.2%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    87.1%−0.1
    45% to convert
  7. Q3 1:17STAN Touchdown, down 3 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    28.2%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    28.0%−0.2
    45% to convert
  8. Q4 14:14WASH Touchdown, up 8 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    86.7%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    86.6%−0.1
    45% to convert
  9. Q4 6:46STAN Touchdown, down 3 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    31.3%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    29.5%−1.8
    45% to convert
  10. Q4 1:36WASH Touchdown, up 8 before the try
    Close callKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    93.4%−0.1
    97% to make
    Go for two
    93.4%
    45% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chart
STANDrive 1PUNT
13 plays · 27 yds · 5:474% → 5%
Q1 14:54
1ST & 10
OWN 9
+3
3.8%
Ashton Daniels pass complete to Elic Ayomanor for 3 yds to the STAN 12Similar
Q1 14:54
2ND & 7
OWN 12
+1
3.8%
Casey Filkins run for 1 yd to the STAN 13Similar
Q1 14:54
3RD & 6
OWN 13
+9
3.8%
Ashton Daniels pass complete to Tiger Bachmeier for 9 yds to the STAN 22 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 14:54
1ST & 10
OWN 22
+2
3.8%
Ashton Daniels pass complete to Bryce Farrell for 2 yds to the STAN 24Similar
Q1 14:54
2ND & 8
OWN 24
+7
3.8%
Ashton Daniels run for 7 yds to the STAN 31Similar
Q1 14:54
3RD & 1
OWN 31
+4
3.8%
Ashton Daniels run for 4 yds to the STAN 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 14:54
1ST & 10
OWN 35
+7
3.8%
Ashton Daniels run for 7 yds to the STAN 42Similar
Q1 14:54
2ND & 3
OWN 42
0
3.8%
Ashton Daniels pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 14:54
3RD & 3
OWN 42
+6
3.8%
Ashton Daniels pass complete to Tiger Bachmeier for 6 yds to the STAN 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 14:54
1ST & 10
OWN 48
0
3.8%
Stanford Penalty, Intentional Grounding (Ashton Daniels) to the STAN 43Similar
Q1 14:54
2ND & 19
OWN 39
-3
3.8%
Ashton Daniels pass complete to E.J. Smith for a loss of 3 yards to the STAN 36Similar
Q1 14:54
3RD & 22
OWN 36
0
3.8%
Ashton Daniels pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 9:07
4TH & 22
OWN 36
0
5.3%
punt for 14 ydsSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WASHDrive 2TD
7 plays · 50 yds · 2:4195% → 95%
Q1 9:07
2ND & 5
OPP 45
+5
5.2%
PENIX JR., Michael pass deep to the right intercepted by WRIGHT, Collin at the STA18 intended for POLK, Ja'Lynn. Wright return for 0 yards to the STA18, End of Play. PENALTY STA Offsides on SINCLAIR, Tristan enforced 5 yards from the STA45 to the STA40 and results in a 1ST DOWN [NHSG]. NO PLAY (replay the down).Similar
Q1 9:07
1ST & 10
OPP 40
+15
5.2%
Stanford Penalty, Face mask (15 yards) (Tevarua Tafiti) to the STAN 20 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 9:07
1ST & 10
OPP 20
+10
5.2%
Michael Penix Jr. pass complete to Sam Adams II for 10 yds to the STAN 10 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 9:07
1ST & GOAL
OPP 10
+3
5.2%
Sam Adams II run for 3 yds to the STAN 7Similar
Q1 9:07
2ND & GOAL
OPP 7
+6
5.2%
Dillon Johnson run for 6 yds to the STAN 1Similar
Q1 9:07
1ST & 10
50
+5
5.2%
Dillon Johnson run for 5 yds to the STAN 45Similar
Q1 6:26
3RD & GOAL
OPP 1
+1
5.3%
Jack Westover run for 1 yd for a TD (Grady Gross KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
STANDrive 3PUNT
5 plays · 21 yds · 1:566% → 6%
Q1 6:26
1ST & 10
OWN 14
+14
5.5%
Ashton Daniels pass complete to Tiger Bachmeier for 14 yds to the STAN 28 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 6:26
1ST & 10
OWN 28
0
5.5%
Ashton Daniels pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 6:26
2ND & 10
OWN 28
+8
5.5%
Ashton Daniels run for 8 yds to the STAN 36Similar
Q1 6:26
3RD & 2
OWN 36
-1
5.5%
Bryce Farrell run for a loss of 1 yard to the STAN 35Similar
Q1 4:30
4TH & 3
OWN 35
0
5.9%
Aidan Flintoft punt for 47 ydsSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WASHDrive 4PUNT
4 plays · 5 yds · 0:5294% → 94%
Q1 4:30
1ST & 10
OWN 18
+5
5.9%
Dillon Johnson run for 5 yds to the WASH 23Similar
Q1 4:30
2ND & 5
OWN 23
0
5.8%
Michael Penix Jr. pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 4:30
3RD & 5
OWN 23
0
5.9%
Michael Penix Jr. pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 3:38
4TH & 5
OWN 23
0
6.2%
Jack McCallister punt for 44 yds, fair catch by Casey Filkins at the STAN 33Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
STANDrive 5PUNT
4 plays · 3 yds · 1:376% → 6%
Q1 3:38
1ST & 10
OWN 33
0
6.2%
Ashton Daniels pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 3:38
2ND & 10
OWN 33
-5
6.2%
Ashton Daniels sacked by Bralen Trice and Drew Fowler for a loss of 5 yards to the STAN 28Similar
Q1 3:38
3RD & 15
OWN 28
+8
6.0%
Ashton Daniels pass complete to Elic Ayomanor for 8 yds to the STAN 36Similar
Q1 2:01
4TH & 7
OWN 36
0
6.4%
Aidan Flintoft punt for 40 ydsSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WASHDrive 6PUNT
5 plays · 3 yds · 1:4294% → 93%
Q1 2:01
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+2
6.4%
Dillon Johnson run for 2 yds to the WASH 27Similar
Q1 2:01
2ND & 8
OWN 27
+1
6.4%
Dillon Johnson run for 1 yd to the WASH 28Similar
Q1 2:01
3RD & 7
OWN 28
0
6.5%
Michael Penix Jr. pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 0:19
4TH & 7
OWN 28
0
7.1%
Jack McCallister punt for 46 yds, downed at the STAN 26Similar
Q1 0:19
1ST & 10
OWN 26
+5
7.0%
SMITH, E.J. rush up the middle for a gain of 7 yards to the STA33 (ULOFOSHIO, Edefuan). PENALTY UW Offsides on TUPUOLA-FETUI, Zion enforced 5 yards from the STA26 to the STA31 [NHSG]. NO PLAY (replay the down).Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
STANDrive 7TD
8 plays · 74 yds · 2:367% → 11%
Q1 0:00
1ST & 5
OWN 31
+1
7.3%
Bryce Farrell run for 1 yd to the STAN 32Similar
Q2 15:00
2ND & 4
OWN 32
+6
7.2%
Ashton Daniels pass complete to Elic Ayomanor for 6 yds to the STAN 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 38
+15
7.2%
Washington Penalty, Unsportsmanlike Conduct (15 Yards) to the WASH 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 47
+20
7.5%
Ashton Daniels pass complete to Sam Roush for 20 yds to the WASH 27 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 27
+1
7.7%
Casey Filkins run for 1 yd to the WASH 26Similar
Q2 15:00
2ND & 9
OPP 26
0
7.7%
Washington Penalty, Face mask (0 yards) (Yards) to the WASH 13 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 12
+7
7.7%
Ashton Daniels pass complete to Elic Ayomanor for 7 yds to the WASH 5Similar
Q2 12:24
2ND & 3
OPP 5
+5
11.2%
Ashton Daniels run for 5 yds for a TD (Joshua Karty KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WASHDrive 8TD
10 plays · 75 yds · 3:0490% → 92%
Q2 12:24
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+5
9.9%
Michael Penix Jr. pass complete to Jack Westover for 5 yds to the WASH 30Similar
Q2 12:00
2ND & 5
OWN 30
0
10.1%
Michael Penix Jr. pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 12:00
3RD & 5
OWN 30
+13
10.3%
Michael Penix Jr. pass complete to Ja'Lynn Polk for 13 yds to the WASH 43 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 12:00
1ST & 10
OWN 43
-2
9.7%
Dillon Johnson run for a loss of 2 yards to the WASH 41Similar
Q2 12:00
2ND & 12
OWN 41
0
10.0%
Michael Penix Jr. pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 12:00
3RD & 12
OWN 41
+18
10.2%
Michael Penix Jr. pass complete to Rome Odunze for 18 yds to the STAN 41 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 12:00
1ST & 10
OPP 41
+5
9.6%
Michael Penix Jr. pass complete to Jack Westover for 5 yds to the STAN 36Similar
Q2 12:00
2ND & 5
OPP 36
+29
9.5%
Michael Penix Jr. pass complete to Devin Culp for 29 yds to the STAN 7 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 9:20
1ST & GOAL
OPP 7
+7
8.1%
Michael Penix Jr. pass complete to Rome Odunze for 7 yds for a TD (Grady Gross KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
STANDrive 9PUNT
9 plays · 31 yds · 3:579% → 10%
Q2 9:20
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+8
8.9%
Ashton Daniels pass complete to Elic Ayomanor for 8 yds to the STAN 33Similar
Q2 9:20
2ND & 2
OWN 33
+4
9.4%
Casey Filkins run for 4 yds to the STAN 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 9:20
1ST & 10
OWN 37
+5
9.1%
Ashton Daniels pass complete to Elic Ayomanor for 5 yds to the STAN 42Similar
Q2 9:20
2ND & 5
OWN 42
+2
9.5%
Casey Filkins run for 2 yds to the STAN 44Similar
Q2 9:20
3RD & 3
OWN 44
+9
9.4%
Justin Lamson run for 9 yds to the WASH 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 9:20
1ST & 10
OPP 47
+3
9.7%
Ashton Daniels pass complete to Casey Filkins for 3 yds to the WASH 44Similar
Q2 9:20
2ND & 7
OPP 44
0
9.7%
Ashton Daniels pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 9:20
3RD & 7
OPP 44
0
9.6%
Ashton Daniels pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 5:23
4TH & 7
OPP 44
0
10.4%
Aidan Flintoft punt for 36 yds, fair catch by Denzel Boston at the WASH 8Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WASHDrive 10TD
1 play · 92 yds · 0:0093% → 93%
Q2 5:09
1ST & 10
OWN 8
+92
6.7%
Michael Penix Jr. pass complete to Ja'Lynn Polk for 92 yds for a TD (Grady Gross KICK) (Grady Gross KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
STANDrive 11FG
11 plays · 70 yds · 4:047% → 10%
Q2 5:09
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+30
6.8%
Ashton Daniels pass complete to Tiger Bachmeier for 30 yds to the WASH 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 5:09
1ST & 10
OPP 45
+6
7.4%
Ashton Daniels pass complete to E.J. Smith for 6 yds to the WASH 39Similar
Q2 5:09
2ND & 4
OPP 39
+11
7.4%
Ashton Daniels run for 11 yds to the WASH 28 Ashton Daniels fumbled, recovered by STAN Bryce Farrell for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 2:13
1ST & 10
OPP 28
+6
7.6%
Ashton Daniels pass complete to Tiger Bachmeier for 6 yds to the WASH 22Similar
Q2 2:13
2ND & 4
OPP 22
+12
7.5%
Ashton Daniels pass complete to Tiger Bachmeier for 12 yds to the WASH 10 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 2:13
1ST & GOAL
OPP 10
+4
7.5%
E.J. Smith run for 4 yds to the WASH 6Similar
Q2 2:13
2ND & GOAL
OPP 6
0
7.5%
Ashton Daniels pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 1:06
3RD & GOAL
OPP 6
+1
8.0%
Ashton Daniels pass complete to Tiger Bachmeier for 1 yd to the WASH 5Similar
Q2 1:05
4TH & GOAL
OPP 5
+23
9.5%
Joshua Karty 23 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WASHDrive 12PUNT
4 plays · 0 yds · 0:2492% → 91%
Q2 1:05
1ST & 10
OWN 25
0
8.3%
Michael Penix Jr. pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 1:05
2ND & 10
OWN 25
0
8.4%
Michael Penix Jr. pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 1:05
3RD & 10
OWN 25
0
8.5%
Michael Penix Jr. pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 0:41
4TH & 10
OWN 25
0
8.9%
Jack McCallister punt for 42 yds, fair catch by Bryce Farrell at the STAN 33Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
STANDrive 13FG
10 plays · 38 yds · 0:419% → 13%
Q2 0:41
1ST & 10
OWN 33
+5
9.3%
E.J. Smith run for 5 yds to the STAN 38Similar
Q2 0:41
2ND & 5
OWN 38
+17
9.7%
Ashton Daniels pass complete to Elic Ayomanor for 17 yds to the WASH 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:41
2ND & 10
OPP 45
0
10.1%
Ashton Daniels pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 0:41
3RD & 10
OPP 45
0
9.7%
Ashton Daniels pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 0:41
4TH & 10
OPP 45
-10
9.3%
DANIELS, Ashton pass deep to the right incomplete thrown to the UW27. PENALTY STA Holding on MCLAUGHLIN, Connor enforced 10 yards from the UW45 to the STA45 [NHSG]. NO PLAY (replay the down).Similar
Q2 0:41
4TH & 20
OWN 45
+24
8.9%
Ashton Daniels run for 24 yds to the WASH 31 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:41
1ST & 10
OPP 45
0
10.1%
Ashton Daniels pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 0:05
1ST & 10
OPP 31
+2
11.0%
Ashton Daniels run for 2 yds to the WASH 29Similar
Q2 0:00
2ND & 8
OPP 29
+47
12.6%
Joshua Karty 47 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WASHDrive 14PUNT
8 plays · 5 yds · 3:4391% → 88%
Q3 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+3
9.5%
Dillon Johnson run for 3 yds to the WASH 28Similar
Q3 15:00
2ND & 7
OWN 28
+9
9.4%
Dillon Johnson run for 9 yds to the WASH 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 37
-10
9.2%
JOHNSON, Dillon rush to the left for a gain of 8 yards to the UW45 (GILMAN, Alaka'i;EDWARDS, Scotty). PENALTY UW Holding on KALEPO, Nate enforced 10 yards from the UW37 to the UW27 [NHSG]. NO PLAY (replay the down).Similar
Q3 15:00
1ST & 20
OWN 27
-12
9.7%
Michael Penix Jr. sacked by Wilfredo Aybar for a loss of 12 yards to the WASH 15Similar
Q3 15:00
2ND & 32
OWN 15
-5
9.8%
Washington Penalty, Delay Of Game (Michael Penix Jr.) to the WASH 10Similar
Q3 15:00
2ND & 37
OWN 10
0
9.8%
Michael Penix Jr. pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 15:00
3RD & 37
OWN 10
+20
10.1%
Michael Penix Jr. pass complete to Ja'Lynn Polk for 20 yds to the WASH 30Similar
Q3 11:17
4TH & 17
OWN 30
0
11.8%
Jack McCallister punt for 38 yds, fair catch by Bryce Farrell at the STAN 32Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
STANDrive 15TD
4 plays · 68 yds · 1:1612% → 23%
Q3 11:17
1ST & 10
OWN 32
+7
11.7%
Ashton Daniels run for 7 yds to the STAN 39Similar
Q3 11:17
2ND & 3
OWN 39
+15
12.7%
Washington Penalty, Defensive Pass Interference (Jabbar Muhammad) to the WASH 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 11:17
1ST & 10
OPP 46
+7
13.2%
Sedrick Irvin run for 7 yds to the WASH 39Similar
Q3 10:01
2ND & 3
OPP 39
+39
23.2%
Ashton Daniels pass complete to Elic Ayomanor for 39 yds for a TD (Two-Point Conversion failed)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WASHDrive 16PUNT
7 plays · 21 yds · 3:1781% → 78%
Q3 10:01
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+3
19.4%
Dillon Johnson run for 3 yds to the WASH 28Similar
Q3 10:01
2ND & 7
OWN 28
+3
19.2%
Dillon Johnson run for 3 yds to the WASH 31Similar
Q3 10:01
3RD & 4
OWN 31
+12
19.4%
Michael Penix Jr. pass complete to Germie Bernard for 12 yds to the WASH 43 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 10:01
1ST & 10
OWN 43
+1
18.0%
Dillon Johnson run for 1 yd to the WASH 44Similar
Q3 10:01
2ND & 9
OWN 44
+2
18.0%
Dillon Johnson run for 2 yds to the WASH 46Similar
Q3 10:01
3RD & 7
OWN 46
0
18.3%
Michael Penix Jr. pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 6:44
4TH & 7
OWN 46
0
22.4%
Jack McCallister punt for 38 yds, fair catch by Scotty Edwards at the STAN 16Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
STANDrive 17PUNT
7 plays · 7 yds · 1:2123% → 22%
Q3 6:44
1ST & 10
OWN 16
+1
23.1%
Sedrick Irvin run for 1 yd to the STAN 17Similar
Q3 6:44
2ND & 9
OWN 17
0
23.0%
Ashton Daniels pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 6:44
3RD & 9
OWN 17
+15
21.7%
Washington Penalty, Defensive Pass Interference (Jabbar Muhammad) to the STAN 32 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 6:44
1ST & 10
OWN 32
-15
23.6%
Stanford Penalty, Personal Foul (Levi Rogers) to the STAN 23Similar
Q3 6:44
2ND & 19
OWN 23
0
22.8%
Ashton Daniels pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 6:44
3RD & 19
OWN 23
0
21.7%
Ashton Daniels pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 5:23
4TH & 19
OWN 23
0
22.1%
Aidan Flintoft punt for 36 ydsSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WASHDrive 18TD
6 plays · 52 yds · 1:2880% → 89%
Q3 5:23
1ST & 10
OWN 48
0
20.4%
Michael Penix Jr. pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 5:23
2ND & 10
OWN 48
0
20.5%
Michael Penix Jr. pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 5:23
3RD & 10
OWN 48
+13
21.5%
Michael Penix Jr. pass complete to Ja'Lynn Polk for 13 yds to the STAN 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 5:23
1ST & 10
OPP 39
+6
20.1%
Will Nixon run for 6 yds to the STAN 33Similar
Q3 5:23
2ND & 4
OPP 33
+23
19.0%
Michael Penix Jr. pass complete to Rome Odunze for 23 yds to the STAN 10 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 3:55
1ST & GOAL
OPP 10
+10
11.1%
Michael Penix Jr. pass complete to Ja'Lynn Polk for 10 yds for a TD (Grady Gross KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
STANDrive 19TD
6 plays · 75 yds · 2:3814% → 34%
Q3 3:55
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+4
13.6%
Ashton Daniels pass complete to Tiger Bachmeier for 4 yds to the STAN 29Similar
Q3 3:55
2ND & 6
OWN 29
+53
13.9%
Ashton Daniels pass complete to Elic Ayomanor for 53 yds to the WASH 18 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 3:55
1ST & 10
OPP 18
+1
16.6%
Justin Lamson run for 1 yd to the WASH 17Similar
Q3 3:55
2ND & 9
OPP 17
+8
16.6%
Ashton Daniels pass complete to Sam Roush for 8 yds to the WASH 9Similar
Q3 3:55
3RD & 1
OPP 9
+7
15.6%
Ashton Daniels pass complete to Jayson Raines for 7 yds to the WASH 2 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 1:17
1ST & GOAL
OPP 2
+2
34.3%
Ashton Daniels run for 2 yds for a TD (Joshua Karty KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WASHDrive 20TD
8 plays · 79 yds · 1:5875% → 88%
Q3 1:12
1ST & 10
OWN 21
+25
25.0%
Michael Penix Jr. pass complete to Rome Odunze for 25 yds to the WASH 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 1:12
1ST & 10
OWN 46
0
22.6%
Michael Penix Jr. pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 1:12
2ND & 10
OWN 46
+13
22.9%
Dillon Johnson run for 13 yds to the STAN 41 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 1:12
1ST & 10
OPP 41
0
22.1%
Michael Penix Jr. pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 0:00
2ND & 10
OPP 41
+2
23.1%
Tybo Rogers run for 2 yds to the STAN 39Similar
Q4 15:00
3RD & 8
OPP 39
+15
23.5%
Michael Penix Jr. pass complete to Germie Bernard for 15 yds to the STAN 24 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 14:14
1ST & 10
OPP 24
+24
11.8%
Michael Penix Jr. pass complete to Devin Culp for 24 yds for a TD (Grady Gross KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
STANDrive 21PUNT
4 plays · 3 yds · 1:0315% → 14%
Q4 14:14
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+3
14.9%
Ashton Daniels run for 3 yds to the STAN 28Similar
Q4 14:14
2ND & 7
OWN 28
0
15.3%
Ashton Daniels pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 14:14
3RD & 7
OWN 28
0
14.0%
Ashton Daniels pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 13:11
4TH & 7
OWN 28
0
13.5%
Aidan Flintoft punt for 40 ydsSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WASHDrive 22FUMBLE
4 plays · 40 yds · 1:3487% → 88%
Q4 13:11
1ST & 10
OWN 48
+14
13.0%
Michael Penix Jr. pass complete to Jack Westover for 14 yds to the STAN 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 13:11
1ST & 10
OPP 38
+9
12.6%
Michael Penix Jr. pass complete to Rome Odunze for 9 yds to the STAN 29Similar
Q4 13:11
2ND & 1
OPP 29
+10
12.1%
Tybo Rogers run for 10 yds to the STAN 19 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 11:37
1ST & 10
OPP 19
+7
12.4%
Michael Penix Jr. pass complete to Rome Odunze for 7 yds Rome Odunze fumbled, recovered by STAN Mitch Leigber [SG] PENIX JR., Michael pass short to the left complete for 7 yards to ODUNZE, Rome caught at the STA14, ODUNZE, Rome fumbled at STA10 forced by TAFITI, Tevarua, recovered by STA LEIGBER, Mitch at the STA12, returned 5 yards to the STA17 (CUEVAS, Josh;TAFITI, Tevarua), clock 11:37.Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
STANDrive 23TD
9 plays · 83 yds · 4:5116% → 51%
Q4 11:37
1ST & 10
OWN 17
+8
15.6%
Ashton Daniels run for 8 yds to the STAN 25Similar
Q4 11:37
2ND & 2
OWN 25
+6
16.3%
Ashton Daniels run for 6 yds to the STAN 31 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 11:37
1ST & 10
OWN 31
+2
16.2%
E.J. Smith run for 2 yds to the STAN 33Similar
Q4 11:37
2ND & 8
OWN 33
+15
16.1%
Ashton Daniels pass complete to Sam Roush for 15 yds to the STAN 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 11:37
1ST & 10
OWN 48
-5
17.6%
Stanford Penalty, False Start (Mudia Reuben) to the STAN 43Similar
Q4 11:37
1ST & 15
OWN 43
+44
16.3%
Ashton Daniels pass complete to Jackson Harris for 44 yds to the WASH 13 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 11:37
1ST & 10
OPP 13
+4
20.4%
Ashton Daniels run for 4 yds to the WASH 9Similar
Q4 11:37
2ND & 6
OPP 9
+7
20.4%
Ashton Daniels pass complete to E.J. Smith for 7 yds to the WASH 2 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 6:46
1ST & GOAL
OPP 2
+2
50.7%
Justin Lamson 2 Yd Run (Joshua Karty Kick)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WASHDrive 24INT
5 plays · 33 yds · 1:3972% → 75%
Q4 6:44
1ST & 10
50
0
28.2%
Michael Penix Jr. pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 6:44
2ND & 10
50
+2
28.4%
Michael Penix Jr. pass complete to Devin Culp for 2 yds to the STAN 48Similar
Q4 6:44
3RD & 8
OPP 48
+15
29.1%
Stanford Penalty, Defensive Pass Interference (Zahran Manley) to the STAN 33 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 6:44
1ST & 10
OPP 33
+16
26.8%
Michael Penix Jr. pass complete to Germie Bernard for 16 yds to the STAN 17 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 5:05
1ST & 10
OPP 17
0
25.3%
Michael Penix Jr. pass intercepted, touchback.Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
STANDrive 25DOWNS
5 plays · 8 yds · 1:4541% → 34%
Q4 5:05
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+7
40.7%
Ashton Daniels pass complete to Tiger Bachmeier for 7 yds to the STAN 27Similar
Q4 5:05
2ND & 3
OWN 27
+1
41.8%
Ashton Daniels pass complete to E.J. Smith for 1 yd to the STAN 28Similar
Q4 3:23
3RD & 2
OWN 28
0
35.9%
Ashton Daniels run for no gain to the STAN 28Similar
Q4 3:20
4TH & 2
OWN 28
0
33.9%
Tiger Bachmeier pass incompleteSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WASHDrive 26TD
5 plays · 28 yds · 1:4481% → 96%
Q4 3:20
1ST & 10
OPP 28
+6
19.2%
Dillon Johnson run for 6 yds to the STAN 22Similar
Q4 3:20
2ND & 4
OPP 22
+7
19.2%
Dillon Johnson run for 7 yds to the STAN 15 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 1:45
1ST & 10
OPP 15
+2
12.3%
Dillon Johnson run for 2 yds to the STAN 13Similar
Q4 1:36
2ND & 8
OPP 13
+13
3.9%
Dillon Johnson 13 Yd Run (Grady Gross Kick)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
STANDrive 27DOWNS
5 plays · 20 yds · 0:435% → 4%
Q4 1:36
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+16
4.6%
Ashton Daniels pass complete to Bryce Farrell for 16 yds to the STAN 41 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 1:36
1ST & 10
OWN 41
0
5.1%
Ashton Daniels pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 1:36
2ND & 10
OWN 41
+7
5.0%
E.J. Smith run for 7 yds to the STAN 48Similar
Q4 1:36
3RD & 3
OWN 48
0
5.5%
Ashton Daniels pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 0:53
4TH & 3
OWN 48
-3
4.4%
Ashton Daniels sacked by Bralen Trice and Alphonzo Tuputala for a loss of 3 yards to the STAN 45Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WASHDrive 28END OF GAME
4 plays · -3 yds · 0:5096% → 96%
Q4 0:50
1ST & 10
OPP 45
0
4.3%
[NHSG] Kneel down by PENIX JR., Michael at STA46 (team loss of 1).Similar
Q4 0:50
2ND & 11
OPP 46
0
4.3%
[NHSG] Kneel down by PENIX JR., Michael at STA47 (team loss of 1).Similar
Q4 0:00
3RD & 12
OPP 47
0
4.1%
[NHSG] Kneel down by PENIX JR., Michael at STA48 (team loss of 1), clock 00:00.Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
TD · Q4 6:46
Justin Lamson 2 Yd Run (Joshua Karty Kick)
+30.3
TD · Q3 1:17
Ashton Daniels run for 2 yds for a TD (Joshua Karty KICK)
+18.7
TD · Q4 14:14
Michael Penix Jr. pass complete to Devin Culp for 24 yds for a TD (Grady Gross KICK)
-11.7
YardLine · model v10Model estimate - not betting advice · Data provided by CollegeFootballData.com