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USC

USC 50 at California 49

CAL
2023 · Week 9 · Oct 28, 2023 · California Memorial Stadium
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Win probability · CAL
modelCAL aheadUSC aheadconfidence bandkey playCAL scoreUSC score
0%25%50%75%100%Q1Q2Q3Q4FGTDTDTDTDTDTDTDTDTDTDTDTDTDTDTDTDEnd of GameTD+17.7CAL 40.8%Fernando Mendoza pass complete toJaivian Thomas for 13 yds for a TD(Two-Point Conversion failed)AWAY 50 - HOME 49 · Q4 0:58
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q4 0:58 · Fernando Mendoza pass complete to Jaivian Thomas for 13 yds for a TD (Two-Point Conversion failed)
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Pregame priorHome team on offenseGarbage-time factorScore differentialScore diff ÷ offense timeoutsScore diff ÷ seconds remaining
+32.5+16.30−16.3−32.5Q1Q2Q3Q4Play 207Pregame prior−0.6Home team on offense−3.9Garbage-time factor−4.3Score differential−1.7Score diff ÷ offense timeouts−1.9Score diff ÷ seconds remaining−2.4
This game in five plays
  1. TD · Q3 8:12: Caleb Williams pass complete to Brenden Rice for 22 yds for a TD (Denis Lynch PAT MISSED) — USC win probability +23.1 pts (now 71%) (top driver: USC has the ball).
  2. TD · Q3 4:42: Fernando Mendoza 2 Yd Run (Fernando Mendoza Pass to Trond Grizzell for Two-Point Conversion) — CAL win probability +25.0 pts (now 67%) (top driver: CAL has the ball).
  3. TD · Q4 6:11: MarShawn Lloyd run for 9 yds for a TD (Denis Lynch KICK) — USC win probability +33.6 pts (now 63%) (top driver: USC has the ball).
  4. TD · Q4 3:33: Austin Jones run for 7 yds for a TD (Denis Lynch KICK) — USC win probability +34.5 pts (now 92%) (top driver: USC has the ball).
  5. TD · Q4 0:58: Fernando Mendoza pass complete to Jaivian Thomas for 13 yds for a TD (Two-Point Conversion failed) — CAL win probability +17.7 pts (now 41%) (top driver: Game still competitive relative to time left).
Was that the right call?

Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works

Fourth downs
CAL made the numbers' call on 7 of 8USC made the numbers' call on 8 of 10
  1. Q1 15:00USC 4th & 1 at USC 49, tied
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 73.9% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    73.9%
    70% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    Punt
    73.8%−0.1
    average punt
  2. Q1 8:24USC 4th & 5 at CAL 6, tied
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 71.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    71.0%−<0.1
    33% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    71.0%
    91% to make
    Punt
    70.1%−0.9
    average punt
  3. Q2 14:21USC 4th & 10 at USC 39, up 3
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 68.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    67.7%−0.5
    29% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    68.2%
    average punt
  4. Q2 14:21CAL 4th & 4 at USC 34, down 3
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 32.5% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    32.5%
    48% to convert
    Field goal
    32.0%−0.5
    47% to make
    Punt
    31.7%−0.8
    average punt
  5. Q2 10:04USC 4th & 4 at USC 16, down 4
    Close callPunted · 59.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    59.6%
    47% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    59.6%−<0.1
    average punt
  6. Q2 6:20USC 4th & 7 at USC 44, down 11
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 48.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    47.8%−0.4
    37% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    48.2%
    average punt
  7. Q2 2:14CAL 4th & 10 at USC 34, up 11
    Close callWent for it · 58.6% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    57.8%−0.2
    30% to convert
    Field goal
    58.0%
    47% to make
    Punt
    56.9%−1.1
    average punt
  8. Q2 0:03USC 4th & 11 at CAL 45, down 11
    Numbers favored punt by 1.2 ptsWent for it · 38.7% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    37.3%−1.2
    27% to convert
    Field goal
    36.6%−1.9
    25% to make
    Punt
    38.5%
    average punt
  9. Q3 13:09CAL 4th & 1 at CAL 45, up 11
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 63.7% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    64.2%
    70% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    Punt
    62.2%−2.0
    average punt
  10. Q3 10:15CAL 4th & 20 at CAL 15, up 5
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 51.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    47.2%−5.7
    9% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    52.9%
    average punt
  11. Q3 8:29USC 4th & 11 at CAL 48, down 5
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 45.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    45.4%−2.1
    26% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    47.5%
    average punt
  12. Q3 8:12CAL 4th & 4 at USC 28, down 1
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 42.6% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    42.4%
    48% to convert
    Field goal
    41.5%−0.8
    60% to make
    Punt
    33.9%−8.5
    average punt
  13. Q3 3:13USC 4th & 28 at USC 7, down 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 31.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    27.0%−6.1
    6% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    33.1%
    average punt
  14. Q3 1:06CAL 4th & 16 at CAL 41, up 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 72.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    69.8%−5.0
    16% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    74.8%
    average punt
  15. Q3 0:26USC 4th & 9 at USC 11, down 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 27.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    25.9%−3.7
    30% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    29.6%
    average punt
  16. Q4 9:09CAL 4th & 10 at CAL 42, up 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 82.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    79.9%−3.0
    29% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    82.9%
    average punt
  17. Q4 7:30USC 4th & 8 at USC 27, down 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 16.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    14.7%−0.8
    33% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    15.5%
    average punt
  18. Q4 4:25CAL 4th & 6 at USC 37, tied
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 57.2% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    57.4%
    40% to convert
    Field goal
    54.4%−3.0
    40% to make
    Punt
    52.5%−5.0
    average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
CAL made the numbers' call on 5 of 7USC made the numbers' call on 4 of 7
  1. Q1 5:23USC Touchdown, up 9 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    72.4%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    72.3%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  2. Q1 3:55CAL Touchdown, down 4 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    30.4%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    30.4%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  3. Q1 1:02USC Touchdown, up 9 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    73.5%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    73.5%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  4. Q1 0:12CAL Touchdown, down 4 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    31.7%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    31.6%−0.1
    45% to convert
  5. Q2 11:55CAL Touchdown, up 3 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    37.8%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    37.8%−0.1
    45% to convert
  6. Q2 8:58CAL Touchdown, up 10 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    48.2%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    48.1%−0.1
    45% to convert
  7. Q3 11:59USC Touchdown, down 5 before the try
    Close callWent for two · failed
    Kick
    49.8%
    97% to make
    Go for twoTheir call
    49.6%−0.2
    45% to convert
  8. Q3 8:12USC Touchdown, up 1 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · missed
    KickTheir call
    61.3%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    61.2%−0.2
    45% to convert
  9. Q3 4:42CAL Touchdown, up 5 before the try
    Close callWent for two · converted
    Kick
    59.2%
    97% to make
    Go for twoTheir call
    59.0%−0.2
    45% to convert
  10. Q4 14:06CAL Touchdown, up 13 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    87.1%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    87.0%−0.1
    45% to convert
  11. Q4 11:16USC Touchdown, down 8 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    19.4%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    19.3%−0.1
    45% to convert
  12. Q4 6:11USC Touchdown, down 1 before the try
    Close callKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    44.5%−0.2
    97% to make
    Go for two
    44.6%
    45% to convert
  13. Q4 3:33USC Touchdown, up 6 before the try
    Numbers favored go for two by 1.1 ptsKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    78.9%−1.1
    97% to make
    Go for two
    80.0%
    45% to convert
  14. Q4 0:58CAL Touchdown, down 1 before the try
    Numbers favored kick by 5.0 ptsWent for two · failed
    Kick
    48.7%
    97% to make
    Go for twoTheir call
    43.8%−5.0
    45% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chart
USCDrive 1FG
15 plays · 69 yds · 6:3682% → 79%
Q1 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+6
18.2%
Caleb Williams run for 6 yds to the USC 31Similar
Q1 15:00
2ND & 4
OWN 31
0
18.2%
Caleb Williams pass incomplete to Tahj WashingtonSimilar
Q1 15:00
3RD & 4
OWN 31
+9
18.2%
Caleb Williams pass complete to Dorian Singer for 9 yds to the USC 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 40
0
18.2%
Caleb Williams pass complete to Dorian Singer for no gain to the USC 40Similar
Q1 15:00
2ND & 10
OWN 40
+6
18.2%
Austin Jones run for 6 yds to the USC 46Similar
Q1 15:00
3RD & 4
OWN 46
+3
18.2%
Austin Jones run for 3 yds to the USC 49Similar
Q1 15:00
4TH & 1
OWN 49
+2
18.2%
Caleb Williams run for 2 yds to the CAL 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 49
+22
18.2%
Caleb Williams pass complete to Lake McRee for 22 yds to the CAL 27 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 27
+5
18.2%
MarShawn Lloyd run for 5 yds to the CAL 22Similar
Q1 15:00
2ND & 5
OPP 22
+11
18.2%
Caleb Williams pass complete to Brenden Rice for 11 yds to the CAL 11 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 11
+3
18.2%
Caleb Williams pass complete to MarShawn Lloyd for 3 yds to the CAL 8Similar
Q1 9:21
2ND & 7
OPP 8
+2
20.5%
Caleb Williams run for 2 yds to the CAL 6Similar
Q1 9:21
3RD & 5
OPP 6
0
20.6%
Caleb Williams pass incomplete to Zachariah BranchSimilar
Q1 8:24
4TH & 5
OPP 6
+23
21.0%
Denis Lynch 23 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CALDrive 2FUMBLE
6 plays · 7 yds · 0:2421% → 22%
Q1 8:24
1ST & 10
OWN 35
+9
21.2%
Jaydn Ott run for 9 yds to the CAL 44Similar
Q1 8:00
2ND & 1
OWN 44
+2
21.9%
Fernando Mendoza run for 2 yds to the CAL 42 Fernando Mendoza fumbled, recovered by USC Jarrett Kingston No Huddle-Shotgun Mendoza,Fernando rush for 2 yards loss to the Cal42 fumbled by Mendoza,Fernando at Cal42 recovered by USC Kingston,Jarrett at Cal42, End Of Play.Similar
Q1 8:00
2ND & 1
OWN 44
+2
21.9%
Fernando Mendoza run for 2 yds to the CAL 42 Fernando Mendoza fumbled, recovered by USC Jarrett Kingston No Huddle-Shotgun Mendoza,Fernando rush middle for 2 yards loss to the Cal42 fumbled by Mendoza,Fernando at Cal42 recovered by USC Kingston,Jarrett at Cal42, End Of Play.Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USCDrive 3TD
6 plays · 42 yds · 2:3779% → 81%
Q1 8:00
1ST & 10
OPP 42
+25
20.9%
Caleb Williams pass complete to Tahj Washington for 25 yds to the CAL 17 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 8:00
1ST & 10
OPP 17
+11
20.8%
Caleb Williams run for 11 yds to the CAL 6 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 8:00
1ST & GOAL
OPP 6
-5
20.8%
PENALTY USC False Start (Dedich,Justin) 5 yards from Cal06 to Cal11. NO PLAY.Similar
Q1 8:00
1ST & GOAL
OPP 11
+8
20.8%
Caleb Williams pass complete to Austin Jones for 8 yds to the CAL 3Similar
Q1 8:00
2ND & GOAL
OPP 3
+1
20.8%
MarShawn Lloyd run for 1 yd to the CAL 2Similar
Q1 5:23
3RD & GOAL
OPP 2
+2
19.5%
MarShawn Lloyd run for 2 yds for a TD (Denis Lynch KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CALDrive 4TD
7 plays · 75 yds · 1:2820% → 24%
Q1 5:23
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+10
20.4%
Fernando Mendoza pass complete to Jeremiah Hunter for 10 yds to the CAL 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 5:23
1ST & 10
OWN 35
+7
20.5%
Jaydn Ott run for 7 yds to the CAL 42Similar
Q1 5:23
2ND & 3
OWN 42
+6
20.8%
Jaydn Ott run for 6 yds to the CAL 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 5:23
1ST & 10
OWN 48
0
20.9%
Fernando Mendoza pass incomplete to Jack EndriesSimilar
Q1 5:23
2ND & 10
OWN 48
-5
20.8%
PENALTY Cal False Start (Driscoll,Brian) 5 yards from Cal48 to Cal43. NO PLAY.Similar
Q1 5:23
2ND & 15
OWN 43
+14
20.5%
Fernando Mendoza pass complete to Trond Grizzell for 14 yds to the USC 43Similar
Q1 3:55
3RD & 1
OPP 43
+43
24.0%
Jaydn Ott run for 43 yds for a TD (Mateen Bhaghani KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USCDrive 5TD
7 plays · 80 yds · 2:4877% → 80%
Q1 3:50
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+4
23.3%
MarShawn Lloyd run for 4 yds to the USC 24 MarShawn Lloyd fumbled, recovered by USC Kyron Hudson No Huddle-Shotgun Lloyd,MarShawn rush middle for 4 yards gain to the USC24 fumbled by Lloyd,MarShawn at USC24 forced by Woodson,Craig recovered by USC Hudson,Kyron at USC24, End Of Play.Similar
Q1 3:50
2ND & 6
OWN 24
+56
23.2%
Caleb Williams pass complete to Tahj Washington for 56 yds to the CAL 20 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 3:50
1ST & 10
OPP 20
+11
22.3%
MarShawn Lloyd run for 11 yds to the CAL 9 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 3:50
1ST & GOAL
OPP 9
0
22.3%
MarShawn Lloyd run for no gain to the CAL 9Similar
Q1 3:50
2ND & GOAL
OPP 9
+3
22.3%
Caleb Williams pass complete to Kyron Hudson for 3 yds to the CAL 6Similar
Q1 1:02
3RD & GOAL
OPP 6
+6
19.8%
Caleb Williams pass complete to Austin Jones for 6 yds for a TD (Denis Lynch KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CALDrive 6TD
4 plays · 75 yds · 0:5020% → 25%
Q1 1:02
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+5
20.3%
Jaydn Ott run for 5 yds to the CAL 30Similar
Q1 1:02
2ND & 5
OWN 30
+9
20.5%
Fernando Mendoza pass complete to Jack Endries for 9 yds to the CAL 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 0:12
1ST & 10
OWN 39
+61
25.4%
Jaydn Ott run for 61 yds for a TD (Mateen Bhaghani KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USCDrive 7PUNT
8 plays · 28 yds · 0:3975% → 75%
Q1 0:00
1ST & 10
OWN 11
+2
24.6%
MarShawn Lloyd run for 2 yds to the USC 13Similar
Q2 15:00
2ND & 8
OWN 13
+26
24.7%
Caleb Williams pass complete to Zachariah Branch for 26 yds to the USC 39 for a 1ST down California Penalty, Defensive Holding (Yards) declined for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 39
0
23.8%
USC Penalty, Ineligible Downfield on Pass (Yards) declinedSimilar
Q2 15:00
2ND & 10
OWN 39
0
23.9%
Caleb Williams pass incomplete to Lake McReeSimilar
Q2 15:00
3RD & 10
OWN 39
0
24.4%
Caleb Williams pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 14:21
4TH & 10
OWN 39
+13
25.2%
Eddie Czaplicki punt for 40 yds , Jeremiah Hunter returns for 13 yds to the CAL 34Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CALDrive 8TD
8 plays · 66 yds · 2:2625% → 33%
Q2 14:21
1ST & 10
OWN 34
+26
25.4%
Fernando Mendoza pass complete to Trond Grizzell for 26 yds to the USC 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 14:21
1ST & 10
OPP 40
0
26.7%
Fernando Mendoza pass incomplete to Jack EndriesSimilar
Q2 14:21
2ND & 10
OPP 40
+4
26.7%
Jaydn Ott run for 4 yds to the USC 36Similar
Q2 14:21
3RD & 6
OPP 36
+2
26.6%
Fernando Mendoza pass complete to Jeremiah Hunter for 2 yds to the USC 34Similar
Q2 14:21
4TH & 4
OPP 34
+12
26.0%
Fernando Mendoza run for 12 yds to the USC 22 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 14:21
1ST & 10
OPP 22
+16
27.3%
Fernando Mendoza run for 16 yds to the USC 6 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 14:21
1ST & GOAL
OPP 6
+2
27.3%
Jaydn Ott run for 2 yds to the USC 4Similar
Q2 11:55
2ND & GOAL
OPP 4
+4
32.8%
Jaydn Ott run for 4 yds for a TD (Mateen Bhaghani KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USCDrive 9PUNT
5 plays · 6 yds · 1:4669% → 66%
Q2 11:50
1ST & 10
OWN 10
+1
31.5%
Austin Jones run for 1 yd to the USC 11Similar
Q2 11:50
2ND & 9
OWN 11
+5
31.6%
Austin Jones run for 5 yds to the USC 16Similar
Q2 11:50
3RD & 4
OWN 16
0
32.0%
Caleb Williams pass complete to Tahj Washington for no gain to the USC 16Similar
Q2 10:04
4TH & 4
OWN 16
0
34.4%
Eddie Czaplicki punt for 34 yds, fair catch by Jeremiah Hunter at the 50 yard lineSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CALDrive 10TD
4 plays · 50 yds · 1:0634% → 45%
Q2 10:04
1ST & 10
50
+15
33.8%
No Huddle-Shotgun Mendoza,Fernando pass incomplete short left to Hunter,Jeremiah broken up by Roland-Wallace,Christian PENALTY USC Pass Interference (Roland-Wallace,Christian) 15 yards from Cal50 to USC35, 1ST DOWN. NO PLAY.Similar
Q2 10:04
1ST & 10
OPP 35
+4
34.5%
Jaydn Ott run for 4 yds to the USC 31Similar
Q2 10:04
2ND & 6
OPP 31
+14
34.6%
Fernando Mendoza pass complete to Jack Endries for 14 yds to the USC 17 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 8:58
1ST & 10
OPP 17
+17
45.1%
Fernando Mendoza pass complete to Trond Grizzell for 17 yds for a TD (Mateen Bhaghani KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USCDrive 11PUNT
8 plays · 19 yds · 2:3858% → 54%
Q2 8:58
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+9
42.2%
Caleb Williams pass complete to Tahj Washington for 9 yds to the USC 34Similar
Q2 8:58
2ND & 1
OWN 34
+1
41.0%
MarShawn Lloyd run for 1 yd to the USC 33Similar
Q2 8:58
3RD & 2
OWN 33
+8
41.7%
MarShawn Lloyd run for 8 yds to the USC 41 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 8:58
1ST & 10
OWN 41
+3
41.2%
MarShawn Lloyd run for 3 yds to the USC 44Similar
Q2 8:58
2ND & 7
OWN 44
0
40.8%
Caleb Williams pass incomplete to Tahj WashingtonSimilar
Q2 8:58
3RD & 7
OWN 44
0
41.3%
Caleb Williams pass incomplete to Michael Jackson IIISimilar
Q2 6:20
4TH & 7
OWN 44
+13
46.5%
Eddie Czaplicki punt for 43 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the CAL 26 , Jeremiah Hunter returns for 13 yds to the CAL 26Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CALDrive 12DOWNS
11 plays · 40 yds · 4:0648% → 54%
Q2 6:20
1ST & 10
OWN 26
0
47.5%
Fernando Mendoza pass incomplete to Jeremiah HunterSimilar
Q2 6:20
2ND & 10
OWN 26
+2
47.3%
Fernando Mendoza run for 2 yds to the CAL 28Similar
Q2 6:20
3RD & 8
OWN 28
+16
46.6%
Fernando Mendoza pass complete to Jeremiah Hunter for 16 yds to the CAL 44 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 6:20
1ST & 10
OWN 44
+2
48.6%
Jaydn Ott run for 2 yds to the CAL 46Similar
Q2 6:20
2ND & 8
OWN 46
+11
48.6%
Fernando Mendoza pass complete to Jack Endries for 11 yds to the USC 43 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 6:20
1ST & 10
OPP 43
+7
48.8%
Jaydn Ott run for 7 yds to the USC 36Similar
Q2 6:20
2ND & 3
OPP 36
+2
49.0%
Fernando Mendoza pass complete to Taj Davis for 17 yds to the USC 19 for a 1ST down California Penalty, UNS: Unsportsmanlike Conduct (Taj Davis) to the USC 34 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 6:20
1ST & 10
OPP 34
+1
48.8%
Jaydn Ott run for 1 yd to the USC 35Similar
Q2 6:20
2ND & 11
OPP 35
+5
48.7%
Fernando Mendoza pass complete to Trond Grizzell for 5 yds to the USC 30Similar
Q2 6:20
3RD & 6
OPP 30
+4
48.4%
Isaiah Ifanse run for 4 yds to the USC 34Similar
Q2 2:14
4TH & 10
OPP 34
0
54.3%
Fernando Mendoza pass incomplete to Trond GrizzellSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USCDrive 13MISSED FG
16 plays · 50 yds · 2:1346% → 49%
Q2 2:14
1ST & 10
OWN 34
+4
53.7%
Austin Jones run for 4 yds to the USC 38Similar
Q2 2:14
2ND & 6
OWN 38
0
52.9%
Caleb Williams pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 2:14
3RD & 6
OWN 38
+6
53.7%
Caleb Williams pass complete to Kyron Hudson for 6 yds to the USC 44 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 2:14
1ST & 10
OWN 44
0
52.8%
Caleb Williams pass incomplete to Mario WilliamsSimilar
Q2 2:14
2ND & 10
OWN 44
0
53.2%
Caleb Williams pass incomplete to Brenden RiceSimilar
Q2 1:23
3RD & 10
OWN 44
+12
54.6%
Caleb Williams pass complete to Tahj Washington for 12 yds to the CAL 44 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 1:23
1ST & 10
OPP 44
+4
51.9%
Austin Jones run for 4 yds to the CAL 40Similar
Q2 1:23
2ND & 6
OPP 40
+5
51.0%
Caleb Williams run for 5 yds to the CAL 35Similar
Q2 0:32
3RD & 1
OPP 35
-10
53.3%
(00:32) No Huddle-Shotgun Lloyd,MarShawn rush middle for 5 yards gain to the Cal30 (Williams,Myles) PENALTY USC Holding (Dedich,Justin) 10 yards from Cal35 to Cal45. NO PLAY.Similar
Q2 0:32
3RD & 11
OPP 45
0
56.7%
Caleb Williams pass incomplete to Lake McReeSimilar
Q2 0:03
4TH & 11
OPP 45
+29
58.4%
Caleb Williams pass complete to Lake McRee for 29 yds to the CAL 16 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:01
1ST & 10
OPP 16
+33
51.5%
Denis Lynch 33 yd FG MISSEDSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CALDrive 14DOWNS
6 plays · 20 yds · 1:5157% → 59%
Q3 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 25
0
56.8%
No Huddle-Shotgun Mendoza,Fernando pass incomplete short middle to Grizzell,Trond, 1ST DOWN, PENALTY USC Pass Interference (Smith,Jaylin) 11 yard from Cal25 to Cal36, 1ST DOWN. NO PLAY.Similar
Q3 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 36
0
57.4%
Fernando Mendoza pass complete to Jack Endries for no gain to the CAL 36Similar
Q3 15:00
2ND & 10
OWN 36
+5
56.9%
Jaydn Ott run for 5 yds to the CAL 41Similar
Q3 15:00
3RD & 5
OWN 41
+4
56.9%
Fernando Mendoza run for 4 yds to the CAL 45Similar
Q3 13:09
4TH & 1
OWN 45
0
58.6%
Isaiah Ifanse run for no gain to the CAL 45Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USCDrive 15TD
5 plays · 45 yds · 1:1046% → 61%
Q3 13:09
1ST & 10
OPP 45
+4
54.1%
MarShawn Lloyd run for 4 yds to the CAL 41Similar
Q3 13:09
2ND & 6
OPP 41
+33
54.1%
Caleb Williams pass complete to Kyron Hudson for 33 yds to the CAL 8 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 13:09
1ST & GOAL
OPP 8
+2
52.1%
MarShawn Lloyd run for 2 yds to the CAL 6Similar
Q3 11:59
2ND & GOAL
OPP 6
+6
38.6%
Caleb Williams run for 6 yds for a TD (Two-Point Conversion failed)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CALDrive 16PUNT
5 plays · -10 yds · 1:4448% → 47%
Q3 11:59
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+4
48.2%
Jaydn Ott run for 4 yds to the CAL 29Similar
Q3 11:59
2ND & 6
OWN 29
-15
48.3%
California Penalty, UNR: Unnecessary Roughness (-15 Yards) to the CAL 19Similar
Q3 11:59
3RD & 16
OWN 19
+4
46.4%
Jaydn Ott run for 4 yds to the CAL 15Similar
Q3 10:15
4TH & 20
OWN 15
+6
47.3%
Lachlan Wilson punt for 38 yds , Zachariah Branch returns for 6 yds to the CAL 47Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USCDrive 17PUNT
7 plays · -1 yds · 1:4659% → 51%
Q3 10:15
1ST & 10
OPP 47
0
41.5%
Caleb Williams pass incomplete Eric GentrySimilar
Q3 10:15
2ND & 10
OPP 47
0
42.4%
No Huddle-Shotgun Williams,Caleb pass incomplete deep right to Jackson III,Michael PENALTY USC Pass Interference offsetting Cal Pass Interference offsetting. NO PLAY.Similar
Q3 10:15
2ND & 10
OPP 47
-1
42.4%
Caleb Williams sacked by Xavier Carlton for a loss of 1 yard to the CAL 48Similar
Q3 10:15
3RD & 11
OPP 48
+5
44.1%
MarShawn Lloyd run for 5 yds to the CAL 43Similar
Q3 10:15
4TH & 6
OPP 43
-5
44.2%
PENALTY USC False Start (Murphy,Mason) 5 yards from Cal43 to Cal48. NO PLAY.Similar
Q3 8:29
4TH & 11
OPP 48
0
48.6%
Eddie Czaplicki punt for 37 yds, fair catch by Jeremiah Hunter at the CAL 11Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CALDrive 18INT
2 plays · 0 yds · 0:0952% → 52%
Q3 8:29
1ST & 10
OWN 11
0
52.3%
Fernando Mendoza pass incomplete to Jack EndriesSimilar
Q3 8:20
2ND & 10
OWN 11
0
52.0%
California Penalty, Defensive Holding (Yards) declinedSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USCDrive 19TD
2 plays · 22 yds · 0:0071% → 71%
Q3 8:12
1ST & 10
OPP 22
+22
29.0%
Caleb Williams pass complete to Brenden Rice for 22 yds for a TD (Denis Lynch PAT MISSED)Similar
Q3 8:12
1ST & GOAL
OPP 3
-10
29.0%
Williams,Caleb pass attempt failed PENALTY USC Holding (Murphy,Mason) 10 yards from Cal03 to Cal13. NO PLAY.Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CALDrive 20TD
13 plays · 75 yds · 3:3036% → 67%
Q3 8:12
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+11
35.9%
Fernando Mendoza pass complete to Jeremiah Hunter for 11 yds to the CAL 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 8:12
1ST & 10
OWN 36
+15
37.2%
No Huddle-Shotgun Mendoza,Fernando pass incomplete short left to Hunter,Jeremiah PENALTY USC Pass Interference (Jackson,Domani) 15 yards from Cal36 to USC49, 1ST DOWN. NO PLAY.Similar
Q3 8:12
1ST & 10
OPP 49
+15
40.3%
No Huddle-Shotgun Mendoza,Fernando pass incomplete deep right to Endries,Jack PENALTY USC Pass Interference (Smith,Jaylin) 15 yards from USC49 to USC34, 1ST DOWN. NO PLAY.Similar
Q3 8:12
1ST & 10
OPP 34
0
41.8%
Fernando Mendoza pass incomplete to Jeremiah HunterSimilar
Q3 8:12
2ND & 10
OPP 34
0
41.7%
Fernando Mendoza pass incomplete to Trond GrizzellSimilar
Q3 8:12
3RD & 10
OPP 34
+6
39.4%
Fernando Mendoza pass complete to Taj Davis for 6 yds to the USC 28Similar
Q3 8:12
4TH & 4
OPP 28
+13
37.8%
Fernando Mendoza run for 13 yds to the USC 15 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 8:12
1ST & 10
OPP 15
+2
41.8%
Isaiah Ifanse run for 2 yds to the USC 13Similar
Q3 8:12
2ND & 8
OPP 13
+5
41.8%
Isaiah Ifanse run for 5 yds to the USC 8Similar
Q3 8:12
3RD & 3
OPP 8
+5
40.0%
Isaiah Ifanse run for 5 yds to the USC 3 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 8:12
1ST & GOAL
OPP 3
+1
41.8%
Jaydn Ott run for 1 yd to the USC 2Similar
Q3 4:42
2ND & GOAL
OPP 2
+2
66.8%
Fernando Mendoza 2 Yd Run (Fernando Mendoza Pass to Trond Grizzell for Two-Point Conversion)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USCDrive 21PUNT
5 plays · -18 yds · 1:2941% → 36%
Q3 4:42
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+5
58.8%
Austin Jones run for 5 yds to the USC 30Similar
Q3 4:42
2ND & 5
OWN 30
-23
57.6%
Caleb Williams sacked by Cade Uluave for a loss of 23 yards to the USC 7 Caleb Williams fumbled, recovered by USC Caleb Williams , return for 0 yardsSimilar
Q3 4:42
3RD & 28
OWN 7
0
61.4%
Caleb Williams pass incomplete to Zachariah BranchSimilar
Q3 3:13
4TH & 28
OWN 7
0
64.0%
Eddie Czaplicki punt for 46 yds, fair catch by Jeremiah Hunter at the CAL 47Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CALDrive 22PUNT
4 plays · -6 yds · 2:0768% → 69%
Q3 3:13
1ST & 10
OWN 47
+1
67.8%
Jaydn Ott run for 1 yd to the CAL 48Similar
Q3 3:13
2ND & 9
OWN 48
+4
67.3%
Jaydn Ott run for 4 yds to the USC 48Similar
Q3 3:13
3RD & 5
OPP 48
+11
66.6%
Jaydn Ott run for 11 yds to the CAL 41Similar
Q3 1:06
4TH & 16
OWN 41
0
68.8%
Lachlan Wilson punt for 49 ydsSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USCDrive 23PUNT
4 plays · 1 yds · 0:4035% → 31%
Q3 1:06
1ST & 10
OWN 10
+1
64.9%
MarShawn Lloyd run for 1 yd to the USC 11Similar
Q3 1:06
2ND & 9
OWN 11
0
65.4%
Caleb Williams pass incomplete to MarShawn LloydSimilar
Q3 1:06
3RD & 9
OWN 11
0
66.8%
Caleb Williams pass incomplete to Brenden RiceSimilar
Q3 0:26
4TH & 9
OWN 11
0
68.8%
Eddie Czaplicki punt for 43 yds, fair catch by Jeremiah Hunter at the CAL 46Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CALDrive 24TD
5 plays · 54 yds · 1:2075% → 93%
Q3 0:26
1ST & 10
OWN 46
+21
74.9%
Fernando Mendoza pass complete to Trond Grizzell for 21 yds to the USC 33 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 0:00
1ST & 10
OPP 33
+7
77.1%
Fernando Mendoza pass complete to Jack Endries for 7 yds to the USC 26Similar
Q4 15:00
2ND & 3
OPP 26
+25
77.1%
Fernando Mendoza pass complete to Jeremiah Hunter for 25 yds to the USC 1 for a 1ST down USC Penalty, Roughing The Passer (Solomon Byrd) to the USC 1 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 15:00
1ST & GOAL
OPP 1
0
77.1%
Jaydn Ott run for no gain to the USC 1Similar
Q4 14:06
2ND & GOAL
OPP 1
+1
92.7%
Fernando Mendoza run for 1 yd for a TD (Mateen Bhaghani KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USCDrive 25TD
7 plays · 75 yds · 2:5015% → 34%
Q4 14:06
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+16
84.6%
Caleb Williams pass complete to MarShawn Lloyd for 16 yds to the USC 41 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 14:06
1ST & 10
OWN 41
+53
82.8%
Caleb Williams pass complete to MarShawn Lloyd for 53 yds to the CAL 6 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 14:06
1ST & GOAL
OPP 6
+2
80.1%
Austin Jones run for 2 yds to the CAL 4Similar
Q4 12:01
2ND & GOAL
OPP 4
+3
82.3%
MarShawn Lloyd run for 3 yds to the CAL 1Similar
Q4 11:16
3RD & GOAL
OPP 1
+1
65.7%
Caleb Williams run for 1 yd for a TD (Denis Lynch KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CALDrive 26PUNT
8 plays · 17 yds · 2:0778% → 80%
Q4 11:16
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+3
77.5%
Jaivian Thomas run for 3 yds to the CAL 22Similar
Q4 11:16
2ND & 13
OWN 22
+8
76.9%
Fernando Mendoza pass complete to Trond Grizzell for 8 yds to the CAL 30Similar
Q4 11:16
3RD & 5
OWN 30
+12
76.4%
Fernando Mendoza pass complete to Jack Endries for 12 yds to the CAL 42 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 11:16
1ST & 10
OWN 42
0
79.8%
Jaivian Thomas run for no gain to the CAL 42Similar
Q4 11:16
2ND & 10
OWN 42
0
79.3%
Fernando Mendoza pass incomplete to Taj DavisSimilar
Q4 11:16
3RD & 10
OWN 42
0
77.9%
Fernando Mendoza pass incomplete to Trond GrizzellSimilar
Q4 9:09
4TH & 10
OWN 42
0
79.6%
Lachlan Wilson punt for 51 ydsSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USCDrive 27PUNT
5 plays · 20 yds · 1:3926% → 19%
Q4 9:09
1ST & 10
OWN 7
+18
74.2%
Caleb Williams pass complete to Lake McRee for 18 yds to the USC 25 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 9:09
1ST & 10
OWN 25
0
73.5%
Caleb Williams pass incomplete to Zachariah BranchSimilar
Q4 9:09
2ND & 10
OWN 25
+2
73.9%
Caleb Williams pass complete to Lake McRee for 2 yds to the USC 27Similar
Q4 9:09
3RD & 8
OWN 27
0
75.0%
Caleb Williams pass incomplete to Zachariah BranchSimilar
Q4 7:30
4TH & 8
OWN 27
0
81.2%
Eddie Czaplicki punt for 51 yds , Nohl Williams returns for no gain to the CAL 18 Nohl Williams fumbled, recovered by USC Tackett Curtis Czaplicki,Eddie punt 51 yards to the Cal22 Williams,Nohl return for loss of 4 yards to the Cal20 fumbled by Williams,Nohl at Cal20 forced by Curtis,Tackett recovered by USC Curtis,Tackett at Cal18, End Of Play.Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USCDrive 28TD
3 plays · 18 yds · 1:1930% → 63%
Q4 7:30
1ST & 10
OPP 18
0
70.0%
Caleb Williams pass complete to Dorian Singer for no gain to the CAL 18Similar
Q4 7:30
2ND & 10
OPP 18
+9
70.8%
Caleb Williams run for 9 yds to the CAL 9Similar
Q4 6:11
3RD & 1
OPP 9
+9
37.2%
MarShawn Lloyd run for 9 yds for a TD (Denis Lynch KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CALDrive 29FUMBLE
3 plays · 12 yds · 0:2550% → 55%
Q4 6:05
1ST & 10
OWN 35
+11
50.1%
Fernando Mendoza pass complete to Jack Endries for 11 yds to the CAL 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 5:40
1ST & 10
OWN 46
+1
55.0%
Ashton Stredick run for 1 yd to the CAL 47 Ashton Stredick fumbled, recovered by USC Jamil Muhammad at the Cal 47Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USCDrive 30FUMBLE
1 play · -12 yds · 0:0062% → 62%
Q4 5:35
1ST & 10
OPP 47
-12
38.4%
Caleb Williams sacked by Patrick McMorris for a loss of 12 yards to the USC 41 Caleb Williams fumbled, recovered by CAL Kaleb Elarms-Orr , return for 0 yardsSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CALDrive 31DOWNS
4 plays · 4 yds · 1:1057% → 53%
Q4 5:35
1ST & 10
OPP 41
+1
56.5%
Jaivian Thomas run for 1 yd to the USC 42Similar
Q4 5:35
2ND & 11
OPP 42
0
55.6%
Fernando Mendoza pass incomplete to Jeremiah HunterSimilar
Q4 5:35
3RD & 11
OPP 42
+5
52.4%
Justin Williams-Thomas run for 5 yds to the USC 37Similar
Q4 4:25
4TH & 6
OPP 37
0
52.8%
Fernando Mendoza pass incomplete to Jack EndriesSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USCDrive 32TD
2 plays · 63 yds · 0:5257% → 92%
Q4 4:25
1ST & 10
OWN 37
+56
42.8%
MarShawn Lloyd run for 56 yds to the CAL 7 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 3:33
1ST & GOAL
OPP 7
+7
8.3%
Austin Jones run for 7 yds for a TD (Denis Lynch KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CALDrive 33TD
13 plays · 79 yds · 2:3017% → 41%
Q4 3:28
1ST & 10
OWN 21
0
16.7%
Fernando Mendoza pass incomplete to Jack EndriesSimilar
Q4 3:28
2ND & 10
OWN 21
+15
16.3%
USC Penalty, UNS: Unsportsmanlike Conduct (Eric Gentry) to the CAL 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 3:28
1ST & 10
OWN 38
0
18.0%
Justin Williams-Thomas run for no gain to the CAL 38Similar
Q4 3:28
2ND & 10
OWN 38
+9
17.7%
Fernando Mendoza pass complete to for 9 yds to the CAL 47Similar
Q4 3:28
3RD & 1
OWN 47
-5
18.6%
PENALTY Cal False Start (Miller,Barrett) 5 yards from Cal47 to Cal42. NO PLAY.Similar
Q4 3:28
3RD & 6
OWN 42
+21
18.1%
Fernando Mendoza pass complete to Jeremiah Hunter for 21 yds to the USC 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 3:28
1ST & 10
OPP 37
+23
21.4%
Justin Williams-Thomas run for 23 yds to the USC 14 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 3:28
1ST & 10
OPP 14
+1
23.1%
Justin Williams-Thomas run for 1 yd to the USC 13Similar
Q4 3:28
2ND & 9
OPP 13
0
23.1%
Fernando Mendoza pass incomplete to Jeremiah HunterSimilar
Q4 0:58
3RD & 9
OPP 13
+13
40.8%
Fernando Mendoza pass complete to Jaivian Thomas for 13 yds for a TD (Two-Point Conversion failed)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USCDrive 34END OF GAME
5 plays · -30 yds · 0:5784% → 94%
Q4 0:57
1ST & 10
OPP 38
-11
16.5%
C. Williams takes a kneeSimilar
Q4 0:50
2ND & 21
OPP 49
-7
23.0%
Caleb Williams sacked for a loss of 7 yards to the USC 44Similar
Q4 0:00
3RD & 28
OWN 44
+12
5.9%
Caleb Williams run for 12 yds to the USC 32Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
TD · Q4 3:33
Austin Jones run for 7 yds for a TD (Denis Lynch KICK)
-34.5
TD · Q4 6:11
MarShawn Lloyd run for 9 yds for a TD (Denis Lynch KICK)
-33.6
TD · Q3 4:42
Fernando Mendoza 2 Yd Run (Fernando Mendoza Pass to Trond Grizzell for Two-Point Conversion)
+25
YardLine · model v10Model estimate - not betting advice · Data provided by CollegeFootballData.com