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ORST

Oregon State 24 at Arizona 27

ARIZ
2023 · Week 9 · Oct 28, 2023 · Arizona Stadium
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Win probability · ARIZ
modelARIZ aheadORST aheadconfidence bandkey playARIZ scoreORST score
0%25%50%75%100%Q1Q2Q3Q4TDFGTDFGFGTDTDTDTDEnd of Game
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q3 3:53 · Kyle Ostendorp punt for 54 yds , Anthony Gould returns for a loss of 8 yards to the ORST 20 Anthony Gould fumbled, recovered by ORST Anthony Gould
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Home team on offenseGarbage-time factorPregame priorScore diff ÷ offense timeoutsScore differentialScore diff ÷ seconds remaining
+27.0+13.50−13.5−27.0Q1Q2Q3Q4Play 102Home team on offense+3.8Garbage-time factor+0.6Pregame prior−1.0Score diff ÷ offense timeouts+0.8Score differential+0.7Score diff ÷ seconds remaining−0.2
This game in five plays
  1. TD · Q2 10:32: Noah Fifita pass complete to Tetairoa McMillan for 7 yds for a TD (Tyler Loop KICK) — ARIZ win probability +5.9 pts (now 55%) (top driver: ARIZ has the ball).
  2. FG · Q2 5:13: Atticus Sappington 35 yd FG GOOD — ORST win probability +5.4 pts (now 53%) (top driver: ORST has the ball).
  3. TD · Q4 14:47: Silas Bolden run for 8 yds for a TD (Atticus Sappington KICK) — ORST win probability +25.5 pts (now 70%) (top driver: ORST has the ball).
  4. TD · Q4 8:46: Noah Fifita pass complete to Michael Wiley for 40 yds for a TD (Tyler Loop KICK) — ARIZ win probability +30.2 pts (now 74%) (top driver: ARIZ has the ball).
  5. TD · Q4 1:38: DJ Uiagalelei pass complete to Jimmy Valsin III for 20 yds for a TD (Atticus Sappington KICK) — ORST win probability +27.8 pts (now 33%) (top driver: ORST has the ball).
Was that the right call?

Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works

Fourth downs
ARIZ made the numbers' call on 4 of 5ORST made the numbers' call on 5 of 5
  1. Q1 3:47ARIZ 4th & 1 at ORST 42, down 7
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 42.6% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    42.7%
    70% to convert
    Field goal
    41.5%−1.2
    30% to make
    Punt
    41.8%−0.9
    average punt
  2. Q1 1:34ARIZ 4th & 5 at ORST 34, down 7
    Close callKicked a field goal · 41.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    41.8%
    42% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    41.4%−0.4
    47% to make
    Punt
    40.9%−0.9
    average punt
  3. Q2 13:54ORST 4th & 18 at ARIZ 40, up 4
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 54.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    54.3%−0.8
    13% to convert
    Field goal
    54.9%−0.2
    34% to make
    PuntTheir call
    55.1%
    average punt
  4. Q2 5:13ORST 4th & 7 at ARIZ 17, down 3
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 48.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    46.9%−0.4
    35% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    47.3%
    80% to make
    Punt
    41.3%−6.0
    average punt
  5. Q3 11:27ARIZ 4th & 5 at ORST 8, tied
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 53.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    52.3%−0.1
    34% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    52.4%
    90% to make
    Punt
    42.9%−9.5
    average punt
  6. Q3 6:49ORST 4th & 6 at ARIZ 48, down 3
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 43.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    43.7%−0.2
    40% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    44.0%
    average punt
  7. Q3 3:53ARIZ 4th & 26 at ARIZ 34, up 3
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 57.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    53.4%−6.1
    7% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    59.5%
    average punt
  8. Q4 11:59ARIZ 4th & 11 at ARIZ 46, down 4
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 36.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    34.7%−1.7
    26% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    36.4%
    average punt
  9. Q4 9:31ORST 4th & 9 at ORST 18, up 4
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 65.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    61.4%−3.1
    30% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    64.4%
    average punt
  10. Q4 7:42ORST 4th & 10 at ORST 25, down 3
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 30.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    27.9%−2.5
    28% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    30.4%
    average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
ARIZ made the numbers' call on 3 of 3ORST made the numbers' call on 2 of 3
  1. Q1 8:28ORST Touchdown, up 6 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    56.6%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    56.6%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  2. Q2 10:32ARIZ Touchdown, up 2 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    50.9%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    50.9%−0.1
    45% to convert
  3. Q4 14:47ORST Touchdown, up 3 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    59.1%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    58.8%−0.2
    45% to convert
  4. Q4 8:46ARIZ Touchdown, up 2 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    65.6%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    64.9%−0.7
    45% to convert
  5. Q4 2:22ARIZ Touchdown, up 9 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    94.5%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    94.3%−0.2
    45% to convert
  6. Q4 1:38ORST Touchdown, down 4 before the try
    Close callKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    12.2%−0.9
    97% to make
    Go for two
    13.1%
    45% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chart
ORSTDrive 1TD
13 plays · 75 yds · 6:3253% → 55%
Q1 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+5
46.6%
Damien Martinez run for 5 yds to the ORST 30Similar
Q1 14:16
2ND & 5
OWN 30
+6
46.8%
DJ Uiagalelei pass complete to Anthony Gould for 6 yds to the ORST 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 13:48
1ST & 10
OWN 36
0
46.9%
DJ Uiagalelei run for no gain to the ORST 36Similar
Q1 13:17
2ND & 10
OWN 36
+4
47.0%
Damien Martinez run for 4 yds to the ORST 40Similar
Q1 12:38
3RD & 6
OWN 40
+8
47.1%
DJ Uiagalelei pass complete to Jesiah Irish for 8 yds to the ORST 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 12:00
1ST & 10
OWN 48
+3
47.0%
Damien Martinez run for 3 yds to the ARIZ 49Similar
Q1 11:19
2ND & 7
OPP 49
0
47.1%
DJ Uiagalelei pass incomplete to Damien MartinezSimilar
Q1 11:13
3RD & 7
OPP 49
+16
47.1%
DJ Uiagalelei pass complete to Silas Bolden for 16 yds to the ARIZ 33 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 10:29
1ST & 10
OPP 33
+3
47.0%
Deshaun Fenwick run for 3 yds to the ARIZ 30Similar
Q1 9:47
2ND & 7
OPP 30
+5
47.0%
Deshaun Fenwick run for 5 yds to the ARIZ 25Similar
Q1 9:08
3RD & 2
OPP 25
+3
47.3%
Deshaun Fenwick run for 3 yds to the ARIZ 22 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 8:28
1ST & 10
OPP 22
+22
44.6%
Jack Velling 22 Yd pass from DJ Uiagalelei (Atticus Sappington Kick)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ARIZDrive 2FG
17 plays · 41 yds · 6:5446% → 47%
Q1 8:28
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+7
45.5%
Noah Fifita pass complete to Jacob Cowing for 7 yds to the ARIZ 32Similar
Q1 8:06
2ND & 3
OWN 32
+2
45.9%
Jonah Coleman run for 2 yds to the ARIZ 34Similar
Q1 7:27
3RD & 1
OWN 34
+2
45.5%
Jonah Coleman run for 2 yds to the ARIZ 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 6:50
1ST & 10
OWN 36
+9
45.5%
Noah Fifita pass complete to Michael Wiley for 9 yds to the ARIZ 45Similar
Q1 6:10
2ND & 1
OWN 45
0
46.0%
Michael Wiley run for no gain to the ARIZ 45Similar
Q1 5:36
3RD & 1
OWN 45
+4
45.7%
Noah Fifita pass complete to Tetairoa McMillan for 4 yds to the ARIZ 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 4:55
1ST & 10
OWN 49
+1
45.8%
DJ Williams run for 1 yd to the 50 yard lineSimilar
Q1 4:18
2ND & 9
50
0
45.8%
Noah Fifita pass incomplete to Tanner McLachlanSimilar
Q1 4:12
3RD & 9
50
+8
45.2%
Noah Fifita pass complete to Tanner McLachlan for 8 yds to the ORST 42Similar
Q1 3:47
4TH & 1
OPP 42
+3
44.8%
Noah Fifita pass complete to Tetairoa McMillan for 3 yds to the ORST 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 3:05
1ST & 10
OPP 39
+1
45.5%
Rayshon Luke run for 1 yd to the ORST 38Similar
Q1 2:29
2ND & 9
OPP 38
+4
45.1%
Jacob Cowing run for 4 yds to the ORST 34Similar
Q1 1:49
3RD & 5
OPP 34
0
44.9%
Noah Fifita pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 1:34
4TH & 5
OPP 34
+51
46.8%
Tyler Loop 51 Yd Field Goal Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ORSTDrive 3PUNT
9 plays · 35 yds · 2:4054% → 53%
Q1 1:34
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+12
46.4%
DJ Uiagalelei pass complete to Jack Velling for 12 yds to the ORST 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 1:01
1ST & 10
OWN 37
+15
45.8%
Damien Martinez run for 15 yds to the ARIZ 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 0:17
1ST & 10
OPP 48
+16
45.0%
Damien Martinez run for 16 yds to the ARIZ 32 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 32
-8
44.4%
DJ Uiagalelei sacked by Taylor Upshaw for a loss of 8 yards to the ARIZ 40Similar
Q2 14:18
2ND & 18
OPP 40
0
45.4%
DJ Uiagalelei pass incomplete to Anthony GouldSimilar
Q2 14:11
3RD & 18
OPP 40
0
45.8%
DJ Uiagalelei pass incomplete to Jack VellingSimilar
Q2 13:54
4TH & 18
OPP 40
0
46.8%
Josh Green punt for 34 yds, downed at the ARIZ 6Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ARIZDrive 4TD
8 plays · 94 yds · 3:2246% → 55%
Q2 13:54
1ST & 10
OWN 6
+40
45.5%
Noah Fifita pass complete to Malachi Riley for 40 yds to the ARIZ 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 13:11
1ST & 10
OWN 46
+5
47.7%
Rayshon Luke run for 5 yds to the ORST 49Similar
Q2 12:36
2ND & 5
OPP 49
-4
48.2%
Noah Fifita sacked by Calvin Hart Jr. for a loss of 4 yards to the ARIZ 47Similar
Q2 11:52
3RD & 9
OWN 47
+15
46.3%
Fifita, Noah pass incomplete to McMillan, Tetairoa, PENALTY OREGONST roughing passer (Oladapo, Kitan) 15 yards to the OREGONST38, NO PLAY, 1ST DOWN ARIZONA.Similar
Q2 11:45
1ST & 10
OPP 38
0
48.4%
Noah Fifita pass incomplete to Montana Lemonious-CraigSimilar
Q2 11:36
2ND & 10
OPP 38
+19
48.2%
Jonah Coleman run for 19 yds to the ORST 19 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 11:02
1ST & 10
OPP 19
+12
49.2%
Noah Fifita pass complete to Tetairoa McMillan for 12 yds to the ORST 7 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 10:32
1ST & GOAL
OPP 7
+7
55.1%
Noah Fifita pass complete to Tetairoa McMillan for 7 yds for a TD (Tyler Loop KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ORSTDrive 5FG
11 plays · 61 yds · 5:1247% → 53%
Q2 10:25
1ST & 10
OWN 22
+4
52.7%
Damien Martinez run for 4 yds to the ORST 26Similar
Q2 9:41
2ND & 6
OWN 26
+8
52.3%
Aidan Chiles run for 8 yds to the ORST 34 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 9:03
1ST & 10
OWN 34
+6
52.2%
OLDEN, Silas rush to the left for a loss of 12 yards, BOLDEN, Silas fumbled at OSU25 , recovered by OSU BOLDEN, Silas at the OSU22, returned 6 yards to the OSU28Similar
Q2 8:19
2ND & 16
OWN 28
0
53.5%
Aidan Chiles pass incomplete to Jesiah IrishSimilar
Q2 8:13
3RD & 16
OWN 28
+52
54.8%
Aidan Chiles pass complete to Anthony Gould for 52 yds to the ARIZ 20 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 7:26
1ST & 10
OPP 20
+6
49.9%
Aidan Chiles pass complete to Silas Bolden for 6 yds to the ARIZ 14Similar
Q2 6:48
2ND & 4
OPP 14
+2
50.0%
Damien Martinez run for 2 yds to the ARIZ 12Similar
Q2 6:04
3RD & 2
OPP 12
+3
51.1%
CHILES, Aidan rush to the left for a loss of 3 yards, CHILES, Aidan fumbled at ARI13 , recovered by OSU CHILES, Aidan at the ARI15, returned 3 yards to the ARI12Similar
Q2 5:18
4TH & 2
OPP 12
-5
52.6%
Oregon State Penalty, Delay of Game (-5 Yards) to the ARIZ 17Similar
Q2 5:13
4TH & 7
OPP 17
+35
47.1%
Atticus Sappington 35 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ARIZDrive 6INT
7 plays · 22 yds · 3:2652% → 54%
Q2 5:13
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+2
51.8%
Noah Fifita pass complete to Michael Wiley for 2 yds to the ARIZ 27Similar
Q2 4:42
2ND & 8
OWN 27
+1
51.9%
Noah Fifita pass complete to Jacob Cowing for 1 yd to the ARIZ 28Similar
Q2 4:00
3RD & 7
OWN 28
+14
50.7%
Noah Fifita pass complete to Jacob Cowing for 14 yds to the ARIZ 42 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 3:16
1ST & 10
OWN 42
-4
54.4%
Noah Fifita sacked by Joe Golden for a loss of 4 yards to the ARIZ 38Similar
Q2 2:35
2ND & 14
OWN 38
+9
52.6%
Noah Fifita pass complete to Tanner McLachlan for 9 yds to the ARIZ 47Similar
Q2 1:47
3RD & 5
OWN 47
0
53.7%
Noah Fifita pass intercepted John McCartan return for no gain to the ARIZ 48Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ORSTDrive 7END OF HALF
9 plays · 41 yds · 1:4455% → 55%
Q2 1:47
1ST & 10
OPP 48
0
44.8%
DJ Uiagalelei pass incomplete to Anthony GouldSimilar
Q2 1:37
2ND & 10
OPP 48
+13
45.5%
DJ Uiagalelei run for 13 yds to the ARIZ 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 1:09
1ST & 10
OPP 35
0
43.5%
DJ Uiagalelei pass incomplete to Jack VellingSimilar
Q2 1:02
2ND & 10
OPP 35
+3
43.6%
DJ Uiagalelei run for 3 yds to the ARIZ 32Similar
Q2 0:31
3RD & 7
OPP 32
+16
44.9%
DJ Uiagalelei pass complete to Jack Velling for 16 yds to the ARIZ 16 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:17
1ST & 10
OPP 16
0
42.9%
DJ Uiagalelei pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 0:08
2ND & 10
OPP 16
0
42.9%
DJ Uiagalelei pass incomplete to Damien MartinezSimilar
Q2 0:03
3RD & 10
OPP 16
+9
44.7%
Atticus Sappington run for 9 yds to the ARIZ 7Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ARIZDrive 8FG
10 plays · 67 yds · 3:3353% → 60%
Q3 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 25
0
53.1%
Noah Fifita pass complete to Jacob Cowing for no gain to the ARIZ 25Similar
Q3 14:18
2ND & 10
OWN 25
+26
53.0%
Noah Fifita pass complete to Kevin Green Jr. for 26 yds to the ORST 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 13:55
1ST & 10
OPP 49
+8
56.6%
Noah Fifita pass complete to Tetairoa McMillan for 8 yds to the ORST 41Similar
Q3 13:33
2ND & 2
OPP 41
+3
57.0%
Jonah Coleman run for 3 yds to the ORST 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 13:13
1ST & 10
OPP 38
+25
57.0%
Noah Fifita pass complete to Tetairoa McMillan for 25 yds to the ORST 13 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 12:48
1ST & 10
OPP 13
+2
57.6%
Noah Fifita pass complete to Jonah Coleman for 2 yds to the ORST 11Similar
Q3 12:21
2ND & 8
OPP 11
+3
57.7%
Jonah Coleman run for 3 yds to the ORST 8Similar
Q3 11:38
3RD & 5
OPP 8
0
56.6%
Noah Fifita pass incomplete to Tetairoa McMillanSimilar
Q3 11:27
4TH & 5
OPP 8
+25
59.6%
Tyler Loop 25 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ORSTDrive 9PUNT
10 plays · 27 yds · 4:3842% → 42%
Q3 11:27
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+3
57.6%
Damien Martinez run for 3 yds to the ORST 28Similar
Q3 10:54
2ND & 7
OWN 28
+6
57.4%
DJ Uiagalelei pass complete to Silas Bolden for 6 yds to the ORST 34Similar
Q3 10:13
3RD & 1
OWN 34
+2
57.0%
DJ Uiagalelei run for 2 yds to the ORST 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 9:27
1ST & 10
OWN 36
+5
57.1%
Arizona Penalty, Defensive Offside (Tiaoalii Savea) to the ORST 41Similar
Q3 9:05
1ST & 5
OWN 41
+7
55.2%
Damien Martinez run for 7 yds to the ORST 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 8:24
1ST & 10
OWN 48
-2
55.2%
Damien Martinez run for a loss of 2 yards to the ORST 46Similar
Q3 7:39
2ND & 12
OWN 46
+6
57.0%
DJ Uiagalelei pass complete to Jack Velling for 6 yds to the ARIZ 48Similar
Q3 7:07
3RD & 6
OPP 48
0
55.4%
DJ Uiagalelei pass incomplete to Silas BoldenSimilar
Q3 6:49
4TH & 6
OPP 48
0
58.1%
Josh Green punt for 48 yds for a touchbackSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ARIZDrive 10FUMBLE
8 plays · 14 yds · 2:5661% → 59%
Q3 6:49
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+5
60.7%
Noah Fifita pass complete to Jacob Cowing for 5 yds to the ARIZ 25Similar
Q3 6:19
2ND & 5
OWN 25
+10
61.3%
Noah Fifita pass complete to Tetairoa McMillan for 10 yds to the ARIZ 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 5:50
1ST & 10
OWN 35
+15
61.6%
DJ Williams run for 15 yds to the 50 yard line for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 5:36
1ST & 10
50
0
64.7%
Noah Fifita pass incomplete to Tetairoa McMillanSimilar
Q3 5:30
2ND & 10
50
-10
64.2%
Williams, DJ rush for 10 yards to the OREGONST40, PENALTY ARIZONA holding (Savaiinaea, Jonah) 10 yards to the ARIZONA40, NO PLAY.Similar
Q3 5:00
2ND & 20
OWN 40
-10
61.5%
Noah Fifita sacked by Easton Mascarenas-Arnold for a loss of 10 yards to the ARIZ 30 Arizona Penalty, Intentional Grounding (Noah Fifita) to the ARIZ 30Similar
Q3 4:45
3RD & 30
OWN 30
+4
59.1%
Noah Fifita pass complete to Michael Wiley for 4 yds to the ARIZ 34Similar
Q3 3:53
4TH & 26
OWN 34
-8
58.7%
Kyle Ostendorp punt for 54 yds , Anthony Gould returns for a loss of 8 yards to the ORST 20 Anthony Gould fumbled, recovered by ORST Anthony GouldSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ORSTDrive 11TD
9 plays · 80 yds · 4:0639% → 70%
Q3 3:53
1ST & 10
OWN 20
0
61.0%
DJ Uiagalelei pass incomplete to Jesiah IrishSimilar
Q3 3:45
2ND & 10
OWN 20
+18
61.4%
DJ Uiagalelei pass complete to Jimmy Valsin III for 18 yds to the ORST 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 3:01
1ST & 10
OWN 38
+16
60.4%
DJ Uiagalelei pass complete to Jimmy Valsin III for 16 yds to the ARIZ 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 2:27
1ST & 10
OPP 46
+17
57.4%
Damien Martinez run for 17 yds to the ARIZ 29 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 1:50
1ST & 10
OPP 29
+6
55.4%
Damien Martinez run for 6 yds to the ARIZ 23Similar
Q3 1:09
2ND & 4
OPP 23
+4
55.5%
Deshaun Fenwick run for 4 yds to the ARIZ 19 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 0:31
1ST & 10
OPP 19
+11
55.6%
DJ Uiagalelei pass complete to Deshaun Fenwick for 11 yds to the ARIZ 8 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 15:00
1ST & GOAL
OPP 8
0
55.7%
DJ Uiagalelei pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 14:47
2ND & GOAL
OPP 8
+8
30.2%
Silas Bolden run for 8 yds for a TD (Atticus Sappington KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ARIZDrive 12PUNT
10 plays · 21 yds · 2:4840% → 36%
Q4 14:47
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+4
39.6%
Jonah Coleman run for 4 yds to the ARIZ 29Similar
Q4 14:28
2ND & 6
OWN 29
+7
40.1%
Jonah Coleman run for 7 yds to the ARIZ 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 14:02
1ST & 10
OWN 36
+11
40.6%
Noah Fifita pass complete to Tetairoa McMillan for 11 yds to the ARIZ 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 13:39
1ST & 10
OWN 47
0
43.7%
Noah Fifita pass incomplete to Tetairoa McMillanSimilar
Q4 13:34
2ND & 10
OWN 47
-5
43.1%
Arizona Penalty, False Start (Jacob Cowing) to the ARIZ 42Similar
Q4 13:34
2ND & 15
OWN 42
-12
39.5%
Noah Fifita sacked by Andrew Chatfield Jr. for a loss of 12 yards to the ARIZ 30Similar
Q4 12:52
3RD & 27
OWN 30
+16
36.1%
Noah Fifita pass complete to Tanner McLachlan for 16 yds to the ARIZ 46Similar
Q4 11:59
4TH & 11
OWN 46
0
36.1%
Noah Fifita punt for 49 yds, downed at the ORST 5Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ORSTDrive 13PUNT
6 plays · 13 yds · 2:2866% → 66%
Q4 11:59
1ST & 10
OWN 5
+6
33.6%
Damien Martinez run for 6 yds to the ORST 11Similar
Q4 11:21
2ND & 4
OWN 11
+6
33.5%
DJ Uiagalelei pass complete to Silas Bolden for 6 yds to the ORST 17 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 10:41
1ST & 10
OWN 17
+1
30.8%
Damien Martinez run for 1 yd to the ORST 18Similar
Q4 9:59
2ND & 9
OWN 18
0
31.3%
DJ Uiagalelei pass incomplete to Jack VellingSimilar
Q4 9:53
3RD & 9
OWN 18
0
32.9%
DJ Uiagalelei pass incomplete to Anthony GouldSimilar
Q4 9:31
4TH & 9
OWN 18
+20
34.3%
Josh Green punt for 42 yds , Jacob Cowing returns for 20 yds to the ORST 40Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ARIZDrive 14TD
2 plays · 40 yds · 0:4544% → 74%
Q4 9:31
1ST & 10
OPP 40
0
43.8%
Michael Wiley run for no gain to the ORST 40Similar
Q4 8:46
2ND & 10
OPP 40
+40
74.0%
Noah Fifita pass complete to Michael Wiley for 40 yds for a TD (Tyler Loop KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ORSTDrive 15PUNT
6 plays · 0 yds · 1:0434% → 30%
Q4 8:46
1ST & 10
OWN 25
0
66.5%
DJ Uiagalelei run for no gain to the ORST 25Similar
Q4 8:09
2ND & 10
OWN 25
0
67.1%
DJ Uiagalelei pass incomplete to Jack VellingSimilar
Q4 8:04
3RD & 10
OWN 25
0
68.8%
DJ Uiagalelei pass incomplete to Damien MartinezSimilar
Q4 7:42
4TH & 10
OWN 25
+16
70.3%
Josh Green punt for 46 yds , Jacob Cowing returns for 16 yds to the ARIZ 45Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ARIZDrive 16TD
12 plays · 55 yds · 5:2074% → 96%
Q4 7:42
1ST & 10
OWN 45
+6
73.9%
DJ Williams run for 6 yds to the ORST 49Similar
Q4 7:13
2ND & 4
OPP 49
+5
74.9%
DJ Williams run for 5 yds to the ORST 44 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 6:31
1ST & 10
OPP 44
+14
76.6%
DJ Williams run for 14 yds to the ORST 30 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 5:49
1ST & 10
OPP 30
+9
78.1%
Jonah Coleman run for 9 yds to the ORST 21Similar
Q4 5:23
2ND & 1
OPP 21
+2
78.3%
Jonah Coleman run for 2 yds to the ORST 19 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 4:48
1ST & 10
OPP 19
0
80.0%
Jonah Coleman run for no gain to the ORST 19Similar
Q4 4:04
2ND & 10
OPP 19
+9
83.4%
Noah Fifita pass complete to Jacob Cowing for 9 yds to the ORST 10Similar
Q4 3:17
3RD & 1
OPP 10
+3
84.0%
Noah Fifita run for 3 yds to the ORST 7 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 2:35
1ST & GOAL
OPP 7
+4
88.7%
Jonah Coleman run for 4 yds to the ORST 3Similar
Q4 2:22
2ND & GOAL
OPP 3
+3
96.4%
Noah Fifita pass complete to Michael Wiley for 3 yds for a TD (Tyler Loop KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ORSTDrive 17TD
5 plays · 75 yds · 0:444% → 33%
Q4 2:22
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+32
96.5%
DJ Uiagalelei pass complete to Silas Bolden for 32 yds to the ARIZ 43 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 2:03
1ST & 10
OPP 43
+8
95.6%
DJ Uiagalelei pass complete to Damien Martinez for 8 yds to the ARIZ 35Similar
Q4 1:55
2ND & 2
OPP 35
+15
94.4%
DJ Uiagalelei pass complete to Jack Velling for 15 yds to the ARIZ 20 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 1:38
1ST & 10
OPP 20
+20
66.6%
DJ Uiagalelei pass complete to Jimmy Valsin III for 20 yds for a TD (Atticus Sappington KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ARIZDrive 18END OF GAME
6 plays · 9 yds · 0:5890% → 96%
Q4 1:34
1ST & 10
OPP 48
+1
90.3%
DJ Williams run for 1 yd to the ORST 47Similar
Q4 1:31
2ND & 9
OPP 47
+7
91.9%
DJ Williams run for 7 yds to the ORST 40Similar
Q4 0:46
3RD & 2
OPP 40
+2
95.0%
DJ Williams run for 2 yds to the ORST 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 0:36
1ST & 10
OPP 38
-1
95.6%
TEAM run for a loss of 1 yard to the ORST 39Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
TD · Q4 8:46
Noah Fifita pass complete to Michael Wiley for 40 yds for a TD (Tyler Loop KICK)
+30.2
TD · Q4 1:38
DJ Uiagalelei pass complete to Jimmy Valsin III for 20 yds for a TD (Atticus Sappington KICK)
-27.8
TD · Q4 14:47
Silas Bolden run for 8 yds for a TD (Atticus Sappington KICK)
-25.5
YardLine · model v10Model estimate - not betting advice · Data provided by CollegeFootballData.com