Try the model
UTAH

Utah 34 at USC 32

USC
2023 · Week 8 · Oct 21, 2023 · Los Angeles Memorial Coliseum
Speed4x
View as
Download image
Win probability · USC
modelUSC aheadUTAH aheadconfidence bandkey playUSC scoreUTAH score
0%25%50%75%100%Q1Q2Q3Q4TDTDTDTDTDTDFGTDFGFGTDFGEnd of Game
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q2 7:41 · Bryson Barnes run for a loss of 1 yard to the USC 17
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Pregame priorHome team on offenseScore differentialGarbage-time factorScore diff ÷ seconds remainingScore diff ÷ offense timeouts
+35.5+17.80−17.8−35.5Q1Q2Q3Q4Play 54Pregame prior+13.2Home team on offense−2.7Score differential−1.9Garbage-time factor+0.1Score diff ÷ seconds remaining+0.7Score diff ÷ offense timeouts−0.9
This game in five plays
  1. TD · Q3 7:30: Bryson Barnes pass complete to Landen King for 6 yds for a TD (Cole Becker KICK) — UTAH win probability +17.3 pts (now 62%) (top driver: UTAH has the ball).
  2. TD · Q3 3:28: Bryson Barnes pass complete to Sione Vaki for 15 yds for a TD (Cole Becker KICK) — UTAH win probability +17.1 pts (now 82%) (top driver: UTAH has the ball).
  3. TD · Q4 13:28: Calen Bullock 30 Yd Interception Return (Two-Point Pass Conversion Failed) — USC win probability +13.6 pts (now 38%) (top driver: UTAH has the ball).
  4. TD · Q4 1:46: Caleb Williams run for 11 yds for a TD (Two-Point Conversion failed) — USC win probability +64.6 pts (now 78%) (top driver: USC has the ball).
  5. FG · Q4 0:00: Cole Becker 38 yd FG GOOD — UTAH win probability +57.1 pts (now 95%) (top driver: UTAH has the ball).
Was that the right call?

Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works

Fourth downs
USC made the numbers' call on 4 of 6UTAH made the numbers' call on 6 of 8
  1. Q1 10:11UTAH 4th & 9 at UTAH 30, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 31.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    31.1%−0.1
    31% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    31.2%
    average punt
  2. Q1 4:08UTAH 4th & 3 at USC 40, down 7
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 29.3% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    29.4%
    52% to convert
    Field goal
    29.0%−0.4
    34% to make
    Punt
    29.0%−0.4
    average punt
  3. Q2 15:00USC 4th & 1 at USC 34, tied
    Close callPunted · 66.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    66.9%
    71% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    66.5%−0.4
    average punt
  4. Q2 11:05UTAH 4th & 18 at UTAH 31, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 33.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    32.2%−1.8
    12% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    34.0%
    average punt
  5. Q2 10:10USC 4th & 10 at USC 36, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 65.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    64.6%−0.6
    29% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    65.1%
    average punt
  6. Q2 7:41UTAH 4th & 1 at USC 16, tied
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 37.8% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    37.7%
    71% to convert
    Field goal
    36.1%−1.5
    81% to make
    Punt
    31.7%−5.9
    average punt
  7. Q2 4:29USC 4th & 6 at UTAH 44, tied
    Close callPunted · 65.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    65.7%
    40% to convert
    Field goal
    64.6%−1.1
    27% to make
    PuntTheir call
    65.3%−0.5
    average punt
  8. Q2 1:30UTAH 4th & 22 at UTAH 47, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 37.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    35.7%−1.8
    8% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    37.5%
    average punt
  9. Q3 13:09USC 4th & 10 at USC 18, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 61.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    60.2%−1.8
    28% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    62.0%
    average punt
  10. Q3 0:00USC 4th & 9 at UTAH 27, down 14
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 20.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    19.8%−0.7
    31% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    20.6%
    62% to make
    Punt
    15.3%−5.2
    average punt
  11. Q4 8:24UTAH 4th & 8 at USC 15, up 5
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 69.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    66.3%−2.0
    31% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    68.4%
    83% to make
    Punt
    51.4%−17.0
    average punt
  12. Q4 3:03USC 4th & 15 at UTAH 19, down 8
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 12.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    9.4%−4.1
    15% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    13.5%
    77% to make
    Punt
    5.8%−7.7
    average punt
  13. Q4 2:09UTAH 4th & 5 at UTAH 30, up 5
    Close callPunted · 83.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    81.9%
    41% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    81.6%−0.3
    average punt
  14. Q4 0:25UTAH 4th & 1 at USC 42, down 1
    Close callWent for it · 36.9% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    27.9%−1.0
    70% to convert
    Field goal
    28.9%
    30% to make
    Punt
    13.9%−14.9
    average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
USC made the numbers' call on 3 of 4UTAH made the numbers' call on 4 of 4
  1. Q1 13:44UTAH Touchdown, up 6 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    31.3%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    31.3%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  2. Q1 11:49USC Touchdown, down 1 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    68.9%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    68.9%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  3. Q1 6:17USC Touchdown, up 6 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    70.4%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    70.3%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  4. Q1 1:54UTAH Touchdown, down 1 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    32.2%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    32.2%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  5. Q3 7:30UTAH Touchdown, up 6 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    54.5%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    54.3%−0.2
    45% to convert
  6. Q3 3:28UTAH Touchdown, up 13 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    74.4%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    74.3%−0.1
    45% to convert
  7. Q4 13:28USC Touchdown, down 5 before the try
    Close callWent for two · failed
    Kick
    40.0%
    97% to make
    Go for twoTheir call
    39.9%−0.1
    45% to convert
  8. Q4 1:46USC Touchdown, up 1 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersWent for two · failed
    Kick
    70.2%−2.2
    97% to make
    Go for twoTheir call
    72.3%
    45% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chart
UTAHDrive 1TD
3 plays · 75 yds · 1:1629% → 30%
Q1 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+13
70.9%
Ja'Quinden Jackson run for 13 yds to the UTAH 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 14:32
1ST & 10
OWN 38
+9
70.9%
Ja'Quinden Jackson run for 9 yds to the UTAH 47Similar
Q1 13:44
2ND & 1
OWN 47
+53
70.3%
Bryson Barnes pass complete to Sione Vaki for 53 yds for a TD (Cole Becker KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USCDrive 2TD
5 plays · 75 yds · 1:5570% → 71%
Q1 13:44
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+11
70.4%
Austin Jones run for 11 yds to the USC 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 13:27
1ST & 10
OWN 36
+4
70.3%
Caleb Williams pass complete to Michael Jackson III for 4 yds to the USC 40Similar
Q1 13:06
2ND & 6
OWN 40
+2
70.2%
Caleb Williams pass complete to Zachariah Branch for 2 yds to the USC 42Similar
Q1 12:35
3RD & 4
OWN 42
+13
69.9%
Caleb Williams run for 13 yds to the UTAH 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 11:49
1ST & 10
OPP 45
+45
70.8%
MarShawn Lloyd run for 45 yds for a TD (Denis Lynch KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UTAHDrive 3PUNT
5 plays · 1 yds · 1:3130% → 30%
Q1 11:42
1ST & 10
OWN 29
+8
70.4%
Ja'Quinden Jackson run for 8 yds to the UTAH 37Similar
Q1 11:08
2ND & 2
OWN 37
-2
70.0%
Ja'Quinden Jackson run for a loss of 2 yards to the UTAH 35Similar
Q1 10:30
3RD & 4
OWN 35
-5
70.1%
Utah Penalty, Illegal Snap on FAAIU, Kolinu'u enforced (-5 Yards) to the UTAH 30Similar
Q1 10:20
3RD & 9
OWN 30
0
70.3%
Bryson Barnes pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 10:11
4TH & 9
OWN 30
0
70.4%
Jack Bouwmeester punt for 54 yds , returns for no gain to the USC 16Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USCDrive 4TD
8 plays · 84 yds · 3:4570% → 73%
Q1 10:02
1ST & 10
OWN 16
+6
70.2%
MarShawn Lloyd run for 6 yds to the USC 22Similar
Q1 9:34
2ND & 4
OWN 22
+6
70.1%
Caleb Williams pass complete to Brenden Rice for 6 yds to the USC 28 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 9:08
1ST & 10
OWN 28
0
70.1%
Caleb Williams pass complete to Lake McRee for no gain to the USC 28Similar
Q1 8:25
2ND & 10
OWN 28
+15
69.8%
MarShawn Lloyd run for 15 yds to the USC 43 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 8:05
1ST & 10
OWN 43
+5
70.2%
MarShawn Lloyd run for 5 yds to the USC 48Similar
Q1 7:44
2ND & 5
OWN 48
+51
70.2%
Caleb Williams pass complete to Tahj Washington for 51 yds to the UTAH 1 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 7:08
1ST & GOAL
OPP 1
0
70.4%
Caleb Williams run for no gain to the UTAH 1Similar
Q1 6:17
2ND & GOAL
OPP 1
+1
73.0%
Zachariah Branch run for 1 yd for a TD (Denis Lynch KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UTAHDrive 5TD
9 plays · 47 yds · 4:1229% → 34%
Q1 6:06
1ST & 10
OPP 47
+5
71.4%
Bryson Barnes pass complete to Money Parks for 5 yds to the USC 42Similar
Q1 5:31
2ND & 5
OPP 42
+1
71.4%
Ja'Quinden Jackson run for 1 yd to the USC 41Similar
Q1 4:51
3RD & 4
OPP 41
+1
71.6%
Ja'Quinden Jackson run for 1 yd to the USC 40Similar
Q1 4:08
4TH & 3
OPP 40
+9
72.0%
Bryson Barnes pass complete to Sione Vaki for 9 yds to the USC 31 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 3:27
1ST & 10
OPP 31
0
71.0%
Bryson Barnes pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 3:27
2ND & 10
OPP 31
+19
71.1%
Ja'Quinden Jackson run for 19 yds to the USC 12 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 2:54
1ST & 10
OPP 12
-5
70.8%
(02:54) VAKI, Sione rush to the left for a gain of 6 yards to the USC6 (ALEXANDER, Bear), clock 02:48. PENALTY Before the snap, UTA Illegal Formation enforced 5 yards from the USC12 to the USC17. NO PLAY (replay the down).Similar
Q1 2:36
1ST & 15
OPP 17
+7
70.7%
Jaylon Glover run for 7 yds to the USC 10Similar
Q1 1:54
2ND & 8
OPP 10
+10
66.3%
Bryson Barnes run for 10 yds for a TD (Cole Becker KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USCDrive 6PUNT
5 plays · 9 yds · 1:4869% → 68%
Q1 1:48
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+3
68.7%
MarShawn Lloyd run for 3 yds to the USC 28Similar
Q1 1:25
2ND & 7
OWN 28
+5
68.7%
Caleb Williams pass complete to MarShawn Lloyd for 5 yds to the USC 33Similar
Q1 0:31
3RD & 2
OWN 33
+1
68.3%
Caleb Williams run for 1 yd to the USC 34Similar
Q2 15:00
4TH & 1
OWN 34
0
67.6%
Eddie Czaplicki punt for 46 yds, fair catch by Mikey Matthews at the UTAH 20Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UTAHDrive 7PUNT
7 plays · 11 yds · 3:4833% → 33%
Q2 14:53
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+3
67.3%
Ja'Quinden Jackson run for 3 yds to the UTAH 23Similar
Q2 14:16
2ND & 7
OWN 23
+2
67.2%
Ja'Quinden Jackson run for 2 yds to the UTAH 25Similar
Q2 13:37
3RD & 5
OWN 25
+14
67.3%
Bryson Barnes pass complete to Devaughn Vele for 14 yds to the UTAH 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 13:02
1ST & 10
OWN 39
-12
65.8%
Bryson Barnes sacked by Romello Height for a loss of 12 yards to the UTAH 27Similar
Q2 12:17
2ND & 22
OWN 27
-2
66.9%
Ja'Quinden Jackson run for a loss of 2 yards to the UTAH 25Similar
Q2 11:37
3RD & 24
OWN 25
+6
67.2%
Ja'Quinden Jackson run for 6 yds to the UTAH 31Similar
Q2 11:05
4TH & 18
OWN 31
0
67.5%
Jack Bouwmeester punt for 44 yds, fair catch by Zachariah Branch at the USC 25Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USCDrive 8PUNT
6 plays · 11 yds · 0:4767% → 66%
Q2 10:57
1ST & 10
OWN 25
0
67.4%
Caleb Williams pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 10:52
2ND & 10
OWN 25
+11
67.2%
Caleb Williams pass complete to Brenden Rice for 11 yds to the USC 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 10:37
1ST & 10
OWN 36
0
68.0%
Austin Jones run for no gain to the USC 36Similar
Q2 10:16
2ND & 10
OWN 36
0
67.6%
Caleb Williams pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 10:15
3RD & 10
OWN 36
0
66.7%
Caleb Williams pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 10:10
4TH & 10
OWN 36
0
66.1%
Eddie Czaplicki punt for 50 ydsSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UTAHDrive 9DOWNS
6 plays · 63 yds · 2:1834% → 37%
Q2 9:59
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+4
65.7%
Sione Vaki run for 4 yds to the UTAH 24Similar
Q2 9:23
2ND & 6
OWN 24
+51
65.3%
Bryson Barnes pass complete to Sione Vaki for 36 yds to the USC 40 for a 1ST down USC Penalty, Personal Foul (15 Yards) to the USC 25 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 9:02
1ST & 10
OPP 25
+5
62.3%
Ja'Quinden Jackson run for 5 yds to the USC 20Similar
Q2 8:22
2ND & 5
OPP 20
0
62.0%
Bryson Barnes pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 8:22
3RD & 5
OPP 20
+4
62.9%
Sione Vaki run for 4 yds to the USC 16Similar
Q2 7:41
4TH & 1
OPP 16
-1
62.6%
Bryson Barnes run for a loss of 1 yard to the USC 17Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USCDrive 10PUNT
8 plays · 39 yds · 3:0667% → 67%
Q2 7:35
1ST & 10
OWN 17
+4
66.7%
Caleb Williams pass complete to Lake McRee for 4 yds to the USC 21Similar
Q2 7:12
2ND & 6
OWN 21
+31
66.5%
Caleb Williams pass complete to Lake McRee for 31 yds to the UTAH 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 6:42
1ST & 10
OPP 48
-4
68.9%
Caleb Williams pass complete to Brenden Rice for a loss of 4 yards to the USC 48Similar
Q2 6:17
2ND & 14
OWN 48
-5
67.1%
USC Penalty, False Start (Mason Murphy) to the USC 43Similar
Q2 5:52
2ND & 19
OWN 43
0
67.0%
Caleb Williams pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 5:44
3RD & 19
OWN 43
+5
65.9%
(05:44) WILLIAMS, Caleb pass deep to the left intercepted by VAUGHN, Zemaiah at the UTA24 intended for BRANCH, Zachariah. Vaughn return for 21 yards to the UTA45 (LUCAS, Anthony), out of bounds, clock 05:31. PENALTY UTA Offsides on O'TOOLE, Connor enforced 5 yards from the USC43 to the USC48 [NHSG]. NO PLAY (replay the down).Similar
Q2 5:06
3RD & 14
OWN 48
+8
65.8%
Caleb Williams pass complete to Tahj Washington for 8 yds to the UTAH 44Similar
Q2 4:29
4TH & 6
OPP 44
0
66.5%
Eddie Czaplicki punt for 44 yds for a touchbackSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UTAHDrive 11PUNT
9 plays · 27 yds · 2:5037% → 37%
Q2 4:20
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+17
63.0%
Bryson Barnes pass complete to Devaughn Vele for 17 yds to the UTAH 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 3:45
1ST & 10
OWN 37
+2
61.7%
Ja'Quinden Jackson run for 2 yds to the UTAH 39Similar
Q2 3:08
2ND & 8
OWN 39
+20
60.8%
Sione Vaki run for 20 yds to the USC 41 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 2:33
1ST & 10
OPP 41
+9
59.2%
Sione Vaki run for 9 yds to the USC 32Similar
Q2 1:49
2ND & 1
OPP 32
-5
56.8%
Utah Penalty, False Start (Miki Suguturaga) to the USC 37Similar
Q2 1:44
2ND & 6
OPP 37
0
57.7%
Bryson Barnes run for a loss of 5 yards to the UTAH 43 Bryson Barnes fumbled, recovered by UTAH Tanoa Togiai , return for no gain to the UTAH 43Similar
Q2 1:34
3RD & 26
OWN 43
+4
61.9%
Bryson Barnes run for 4 yds to the UTAH 47Similar
Q2 1:30
4TH & 22
OWN 47
0
63.0%
Jack Bouwmeester punt for 41 ydsSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USCDrive 12END OF HALF
7 plays · 18 yds · 1:0465% → 63%
Q2 1:19
1ST & 10
OWN 10
+11
64.9%
Caleb Williams pass complete to Dorian Singer for 11 yds to the USC 21 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 1:05
1ST & 10
OWN 21
0
64.8%
Caleb Williams pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 0:57
2ND & 10
OWN 21
+7
64.6%
Caleb Williams pass complete to Mario Williams for 7 yds to the USC 28Similar
Q2 0:35
3RD & 3
OWN 28
+3
64.0%
Caleb Williams pass complete to Michael Jackson III for 3 yds to the USC 31 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:24
1ST & 10
OWN 31
0
65.1%
Caleb Williams pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 0:24
2ND & 10
OWN 31
0
64.8%
Caleb Williams pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 0:15
3RD & 10
OWN 31
-3
63.2%
Caleb Williams sacked by Connor O'Toole for a loss of 3 yards to the USC 28Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USCDrive 13PUNT
4 plays · 0 yds · 1:4665% → 63%
Q3 14:55
1ST & 10
OWN 18
+4
65.3%
MarShawn Lloyd run for 4 yds to the USC 22Similar
Q3 14:28
2ND & 6
OWN 22
+1
65.5%
Caleb Williams pass complete to Dorian Singer for 1 yd to the USC 23Similar
Q3 13:48
3RD & 5
OWN 23
-5
63.9%
Caleb Williams sacked by Van Fillinger for a loss of 5 yards to the USC 18Similar
Q3 13:09
4TH & 10
OWN 18
0
62.6%
Eddie Czaplicki punt for 41 yds, fair catch by Mikey Matthews at the UTAH 41Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UTAHDrive 14TD
10 plays · 59 yds · 5:1941% → 62%
Q3 12:49
1ST & 10
OWN 41
+7
59.2%
Bryson Barnes pass complete to Money Parks for 7 yds to the UTAH 48Similar
Q3 12:23
2ND & 3
OWN 48
+6
58.4%
Ja'Quinden Jackson run for 6 yds to the USC 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 11:42
1ST & 10
OPP 46
+22
58.0%
Bryson Barnes pass complete to Money Parks for 22 yds to the USC 24 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 11:09
1ST & 10
OPP 24
+6
56.4%
run for 6 yds to the USC 18Similar
Q3 10:33
2ND & 4
OPP 18
+9
56.1%
run for 9 yds to the USC 9 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 9:49
1ST & GOAL
OPP 9
+6
55.8%
Bryson Barnes run for 6 yds to the USC 3Similar
Q3 9:08
2ND & GOAL
OPP 3
0
55.5%
USC Penalty, Unnecessary Roughness (Bear Alexander) to the USC 2Similar
Q3 8:41
1ST & GOAL
OPP 1
0
55.3%
Ja'Quinden Jackson run for no gain to the USC 1Similar
Q3 7:59
2ND & GOAL
OPP 1
-5
55.0%
Utah Penalty, False Start (Michael Mokofisi) to the USC 6Similar
Q3 7:30
2ND & GOAL
OPP 6
+6
37.6%
Bryson Barnes pass complete to Landen King for 6 yds for a TD (Cole Becker KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USCDrive 15FUMBLE
3 plays · 23 yds · 0:5045% → 47%
Q3 7:23
1ST & 10
OWN 32
0
45.1%
Caleb Williams pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 7:13
2ND & 10
OWN 32
+15
44.7%
Caleb Williams run for 15 yds to the USC 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 6:33
1ST & 10
OWN 47
+8
47.4%
MarShawn Lloyd run for 8 yds to the UTAH 45 MarShawn Lloyd fumbled, recovered by UTAH Cole BishopSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UTAHDrive 16TD
5 plays · 55 yds · 2:5062% → 82%
Q3 6:18
1ST & 10
OWN 45
+6
37.9%
Bryson Barnes pass complete to Devaughn Vele for 6 yds to the USC 49Similar
Q3 5:44
2ND & 4
OPP 49
-3
36.6%
Sione Vaki run for a loss of 3 yards to the UTAH 48Similar
Q3 4:59
3RD & 7
OWN 48
+11
36.5%
Bryson Barnes run for 11 yds to the USC 41 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 4:15
1ST & 10
OPP 41
+26
34.9%
Ja'Quinden Jackson run for 26 yds to the USC 15 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 3:28
1ST & 10
OPP 15
+15
17.8%
Bryson Barnes pass complete to Sione Vaki for 15 yds for a TD (Cole Becker KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USCDrive 17FG
13 plays · 53 yds · 3:2222% → 26%
Q3 3:22
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+7
22.3%
Caleb Williams pass complete to Tahj Washington for 7 yds to the USC 27Similar
Q3 2:57
2ND & 3
OWN 27
0
23.0%
(02:57) WILLIAMS, Caleb pass deep to the left incomplete intended for RICE, Brenden thrown to the UTA50, clock 02:51. PENALTY USC Holding on MONHEIM, Jonah UTA Holding on JOHNSON, Tao , Offsetting penalties [NHSG]. NO PLAY (replay the down).Similar
Q3 2:50
2ND & 3
OWN 27
-5
22.9%
USC Penalty, False Start (Emmanuel Pregnon) to the USC 22Similar
Q3 2:14
2ND & 8
OWN 22
+1
19.5%
Caleb Williams pass complete to Michael Jackson III for 1 yd to the USC 23Similar
Q3 2:14
3RD & 7
OWN 23
+9
19.3%
Caleb Williams pass complete to Brenden Rice for 9 yds to the USC 32 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 1:42
1ST & 10
OWN 32
+40
19.4%
Caleb Williams pass complete to Tahj Washington for 40 yds to the UTAH 28 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 1:07
1ST & 10
OPP 28
-5
22.2%
(01:07) WILLIAMS, Caleb pass deep to the right incomplete intended for JACKSON III, Michael thrown to the UTA0, clock 01:00. PENALTY USC Ineligible Receiver Downfield on Pass on KINGSTON, Jarrett enforced 5 yards from the UTA28 to the UTA33 [NHSG]. NO PLAY (replay the down).Similar
Q3 0:59
1ST & 15
OPP 33
0
21.6%
Caleb Williams pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 0:53
2ND & 15
OPP 33
+6
20.7%
Caleb Williams pass complete to Dorian Singer for 6 yds to the UTAH 27Similar
Q3 0:13
1ST & 10
OPP 27
0
21.5%
(00:13) WILLIAMS, Caleb pass deep to the left complete for 27 yards to HUDSON, Kyron caught at the UTA0 and advanced to the UTA0, 1ST DOWN, TOUCHDOWN USC, score nullified by penalty, clock 00:07 (Play was confirmed after review). PENALTY USC Pass Interference UTA Offsides on O'TOOLE, Connor USC Pass Interference on HUDSON, Kyron , Offsetting penalties [NHSG]. NO PLAY (replay the down).Similar
Q3 0:07
3RD & 9
OPP 27
0
20.4%
Caleb Williams pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 0:00
4TH & 9
OPP 27
+44
25.8%
Denis Lynch 44 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UTAHDrive 18INT TD
3 plays · -1 yds · 1:2676% → 62%
Q4 14:54
1ST & 10
OWN 21
0
24.0%
Ja'Quinden Jackson run for no gain to the UTAH 21Similar
Q4 14:18
2ND & 10
OWN 21
-1
24.6%
run for a loss of 1 yard to the UTAH 20Similar
Q4 13:28
3RD & 11
OWN 20
-30
38.1%
Calen Bullock 30 Yd Interception Return (Two-Point Pass Conversion Failed)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UTAHDrive 19FG
9 plays · 73 yds · 4:5964% → 82%
Q4 13:23
1ST & 10
OWN 12
+36
36.2%
Bryson Barnes pass complete to Sione Vaki for 36 yds to the UTAH 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 12:45
1ST & 10
OWN 48
+5
31.6%
Ja'Quinden Jackson run for 5 yds to the USC 47Similar
Q4 12:02
2ND & 5
OPP 47
+1
30.6%
Ja'Quinden Jackson run for 1 yd to the USC 46Similar
Q4 11:22
3RD & 4
OPP 46
+5
29.5%
Bryson Barnes run for 5 yds to the USC 41 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 10:42
1ST & 10
OPP 41
+24
28.1%
Sione Vaki run for 24 yds to the USC 17 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 9:56
1ST & 10
OPP 17
+2
24.7%
Ja'Quinden Jackson run for 2 yds to the USC 15Similar
Q4 9:17
2ND & 8
OPP 15
0
23.7%
run for no gain to the USC 15Similar
Q4 8:32
3RD & 8
OPP 15
0
24.7%
Bryson Barnes pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 8:24
4TH & 8
OPP 15
+33
18.0%
Cole Becker 33 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USCDrive 20FG
12 plays · 68 yds · 5:1421% → 23%
Q4 8:17
1ST & 10
OWN 13
+12
21.1%
Caleb Williams pass complete to Brenden Rice for 12 yds to the USC 25 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 7:58
1ST & 10
OWN 25
-6
20.7%
Caleb Williams sacked by Jonah Elliss for a loss of 6 yards to the USC 19Similar
Q4 7:15
2ND & 16
OWN 19
+12
18.5%
Caleb Williams run for 12 yds to the USC 31Similar
Q4 6:40
3RD & 4
OWN 31
+17
17.7%
Caleb Williams pass complete to Dorian Singer for 17 yds to the USC 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 6:30
1ST & 10
OWN 48
+7
19.7%
Austin Jones run for 7 yds to the UTAH 45Similar
Q4 6:10
2ND & 3
OPP 45
+7
21.3%
Austin Jones run for 7 yds to the UTAH 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 6:10
1ST & 10
OPP 38
+6
21.0%
Caleb Williams pass complete to Tahj Washington for 6 yds to the UTAH 32Similar
Q4 5:10
2ND & 4
OPP 32
+18
22.1%
Caleb Williams pass complete to Mario Williams for 18 yds to the UTAH 14 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 4:41
1ST & 10
OPP 14
0
21.7%
Caleb Williams pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 4:31
2ND & 10
OPP 14
+6
21.6%
Austin Jones run for 6 yds to the UTAH 8Similar
Q4 3:32
3RD & 4
OPP 8
-11
19.3%
Caleb Williams run for a loss of 11 yards to the UTAH 19 Caleb Williams fumbled, recovered by USC Caleb WilliamsSimilar
Q4 3:03
4TH & 15
OPP 19
+36
23.4%
Denis Lynch 36 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UTAHDrive 21PUNT
5 plays · 5 yds · 0:5685% → 86%
Q4 3:03
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+5
15.0%
Sione Vaki run for 5 yds to the UTAH 30Similar
Q4 2:16
2ND & 5
OWN 30
0
13.0%
Ja'Quinden Jackson run for no gain to the UTAH 30Similar
Q4 2:09
4TH & 5
OWN 30
0
15.4%
Jack Bouwmeester punt for 42 ydsSimilar
Q4 2:07
3RD & 5
OWN 30
0
13.7%
Bryson Barnes pass incompleteSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USCDrive 22TD
1 play · 11 yds · 0:0078% → 78%
Q4 1:46
1ST & 10
OPP 11
+11
78.2%
Caleb Williams run for 11 yds for a TD (Two-Point Conversion failed)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UTAHDrive 23FG
15 plays · 54 yds · 1:4634% → 95%
Q4 1:46
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+1
65.8%
Bryson Barnes pass complete to Ja'Quinden Jackson for 1 yd to the UTAH 26Similar
Q4 1:23
2ND & 9
OWN 26
0
67.5%
Bryson Barnes pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 1:18
3RD & 9
OWN 26
+8
69.6%
Bryson Barnes pass complete to Mikey Matthews for 8 yds to the UTAH 34 for a 1ST down USC Penalty, Roughing the Passer on ALEXANDER, Bear Targeting on ALEXANDER, Bear enforced (Bear Alexander) declined for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 1:10
1ST & 10
OWN 49
-5
60.3%
Utah Penalty, False Start (-5 Yards) to the UTAH 44Similar
Q4 1:10
1ST & 15
OWN 44
+13
65.7%
Bryson Barnes run for 13 yds to the USC 43Similar
Q4 0:42
2ND & 2
OPP 43
0
57.7%
Bryson Barnes pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 0:35
3RD & 2
OPP 43
+1
55.9%
Ja'Quinden Jackson run for 1 yd to the USC 42Similar
Q4 0:25
4TH & 1
OPP 42
+2
60.7%
run for 2 yds to the USC 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 0:19
1ST & 10
OPP 40
0
62.8%
Bryson Barnes pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 0:16
2ND & 10
OPP 40
-5
66.3%
Utah Penalty, False Start (Kolinu'u Faaiu) to the USC 45Similar
Q4 0:16
2ND & 15
OPP 45
+26
69.2%
Bryson Barnes run for 26 yds to the USC 19 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 0:05
1ST & 10
OPP 19
0
62.3%
(00:05) [NH] Kneel down by UTA at USC21 (team loss of 2), clock 00:03.Similar
Q4 0:00
2ND & 12
OPP 21
+38
5.2%
Cole Becker 38 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
TD · Q4 1:46
Caleb Williams run for 11 yds for a TD (Two-Point Conversion failed)
+64.6
FG · Q4 0:00
Cole Becker 38 yd FG GOOD
-57.1
TD · Q3 7:30
Bryson Barnes pass complete to Landen King for 6 yds for a TD (Cole Becker KICK)
-17.3
YardLine · model v10Model estimate - not betting advice · Data provided by CollegeFootballData.com