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CAL

California 14 at Utah 34

UTAH
2023 · Week 7 · Oct 14, 2023 · Rice-Eccles Stadium
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Win probability · UTAH
modelUTAH aheadCAL aheadconfidence bandkey playUTAH scoreCAL score
0%25%50%75%100%Q1Q2Q3Q4TDTDTDFGTDTDTDFGEnd of Game
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q4 1:05 · Ben Finley pass incomplete
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Pregame priorHome team on offenseScore differentialGarbage-time factorScore diff ÷ offense timeoutsScore diff ÷ seconds remaining
+34.5+17.30−17.3−34.5Q1Q2Q3Q4Play 151Pregame prior+0.6Home team on offense+34.4Score differential+23.8Garbage-time factor+7.0Score diff ÷ offense timeouts+18.6Score diff ÷ seconds remaining+5.5
This game in five plays
  1. TD · Q1 5:41: Fernando Mendoza pass complete to Jaydn Ott for 48 yds for a TD (Mateen Bhaghani KICK) — CAL win probability +4.6 pts (now 27%) (top driver: CAL has the ball).
  2. TD · Q2 0:26: Sione Vaki 1 Yd Run (Cole Becker Kick) — UTAH win probability +7.7 pts (now 82%) (top driver: UTAH has the ball).
  3. TD · Q3 9:11: Bryson Barnes run for 4 yds for a TD (Cole Becker KICK) — UTAH win probability +8.1 pts (now 94%) (top driver: UTAH has the ball).
  4. TD · Q3 4:21: Fernando Mendoza pass complete to Taj Davis for 24 yds for a TD (Mateen Bhaghani KICK) — CAL win probability +10.8 pts (now 19%) (top driver: CAL has the ball).
  5. TD · Q4 6:51: Sione Vaki 72 Yd Run (Cole Becker Kick) — UTAH win probability +6.5 pts (now 97%) (top driver: UTAH has the ball).
Was that the right call?

Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works

Fourth downs
UTAH made the numbers' call on 4 of 7CAL made the numbers' call on 3 of 6
  1. Q1 13:21CAL 4th & 3 at CAL 14, tied
    Close callPunted · 24.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    25.0%
    52% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    24.9%−<0.1
    average punt
  2. Q1 10:04UTAH 4th & 2 at UTAH 45, tied
    Close callPunted · 74.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    74.3%
    57% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    74.3%−0.1
    average punt
  3. Q1 1:18UTAH 4th & 7 at CAL 15, down 7
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 67.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    67.2%−0.3
    34% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    67.5%
    83% to make
    Punt
    63.9%−3.6
    average punt
  4. Q2 6:39CAL 4th & 5 at CAL 40, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 32.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    31.9%−0.1
    41% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    31.9%
    average punt
  5. Q2 1:28UTAH 4th & 2 at CAL 44, tied
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 69.1% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    69.0%
    57% to convert
    Field goal
    67.7%−1.3
    27% to make
    Punt
    68.1%−0.9
    average punt
  6. Q3 10:35UTAH 4th & 3 at CAL 5, up 7
    Close callKicked a field goal · 78.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    78.5%
    45% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    77.7%−0.8
    92% to make
    Punt
    71.7%−6.7
    average punt
  7. Q3 7:39CAL 4th & 7 at CAL 28, down 17
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 8.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    8.8%−0.9
    36% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    9.7%
    average punt
  8. Q3 5:58UTAH 4th & 5 at UTAH 25, up 17
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 92.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    92.9%−0.5
    40% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    93.4%
    average punt
  9. Q4 12:54UTAH 4th & 7 at CAL 34, up 10
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 86.6% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    86.6%
    37% to convert
    Field goal
    86.3%−0.2
    47% to make
    Punt
    85.7%−0.9
    average punt
  10. Q4 7:49CAL 4th & 10 at UTAH 12, down 10
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 10.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    9.9%−1.1
    25% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    11.0%
    86% to make
    Punt
    5.8%−5.1
    average punt
  11. Q4 4:32CAL 4th & 15 at CAL 47, down 17
    Close callWent for it · 2.0% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    1.8%−0.4
    17% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    Punt
    2.1%
    average punt
  12. Q4 1:57UTAH 4th & 2 at CAL 20, up 17
    Close callKicked a field goal · 98.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    98.5%
    57% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    98.4%−0.2
    75% to make
    Punt
    97.5%−1.0
    average punt
  13. Q4 1:05CAL 4th & 8 at CAL 37, down 20
    Close callWent for it · 0.5% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    0.5%−<0.1
    34% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    Punt
    0.5%
    average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
UTAH made the numbers' call on 4 of 4CAL made the numbers' call on 2 of 2
  1. Q1 5:41CAL Touchdown, up 6 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    29.1%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    29.0%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  2. Q2 7:56UTAH Touchdown, down 1 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    67.2%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    67.1%−0.1
    45% to convert
  3. Q2 0:26UTAH Touchdown, up 6 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    75.8%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    75.7%−0.1
    45% to convert
  4. Q3 9:11UTAH Touchdown, up 16 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    89.6%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    89.5%−0.1
    45% to convert
  5. Q3 4:21CAL Touchdown, down 11 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    14.2%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    14.2%−0.1
    45% to convert
  6. Q4 6:51UTAH Touchdown, up 16 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    96.6%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    96.3%−0.3
    45% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chart
CALDrive 1PUNT
5 plays · 7 yds · 1:3120% → 21%
Q1 14:52
1ST & 13
OWN 4
+2
79.6%
Jaydn Ott run for 2 yds to the CAL 6Similar
Q1 14:52
2ND & 11
OWN 6
0
79.6%
Fernando Mendoza pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 14:52
3RD & 11
OWN 6
0
79.6%
California Penalty, Delay Of Game (Fernando Mendoza) to the CAL 3Similar
Q1 14:52
3RD & 14
OWN 3
+11
79.6%
Fernando Mendoza run for 11 yds to the CAL 14Similar
Q1 13:21
4TH & 3
OWN 14
0
79.3%
Lachlan Wilson punt for 60 yds, downed at the UTAH 26Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UTAHDrive 2PUNT
7 plays · 19 yds · 3:1779% → 78%
Q1 13:21
1ST & 10
OWN 26
+3
79.2%
Bryson Barnes pass complete to Mikey Matthews for 3 yds to the UTAH 29Similar
Q1 13:21
2ND & 7
OWN 29
+6
79.2%
Ja'Quinden Jackson run for 6 yds to the UTAH 35Similar
Q1 13:21
3RD & 1
OWN 35
+2
79.2%
Sione Vaki run for 2 yds to the UTAH 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 13:21
1ST & 10
OWN 37
+2
79.2%
run for 2 yds to the UTAH 39Similar
Q1 13:21
2ND & 8
OWN 39
+6
79.2%
Ja'Quinden Jackson run for 6 yds to the UTAH 45Similar
Q1 13:21
3RD & 2
OWN 45
0
79.3%
Bryson Barnes pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 10:04
4TH & 2
OWN 45
0
78.4%
Jack Bouwmeester punt for 37 ydsSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CALDrive 3TD
8 plays · 82 yds · 4:2322% → 27%
Q1 10:04
1ST & 10
OWN 18
+9
78.3%
Jaivian Thomas run for 9 yds to the CAL 27Similar
Q1 10:04
2ND & 1
OWN 27
0
78.1%
Isaiah Ifanse run for no gain to the CAL 27Similar
Q1 10:04
3RD & 1
OWN 27
+2
78.3%
Isaiah Ifanse run for 2 yds to the CAL 29 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 10:04
1ST & 10
OWN 29
+21
78.2%
Fernando Mendoza pass complete to Taj Davis for 21 yds to the 50 yard line for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 10:04
1ST & 10
50
+2
77.9%
Jaydn Ott run for 2 yds to the UTAH 48Similar
Q1 10:04
2ND & 8
OPP 48
-10
77.9%
MENDOZA, Fernando pass short up the middle complete for 10 yards to HUNTER, Jeremiah caught at the UTE45 and advanced to the UTE38 (BISHOP, Cole). PENALTY CAL Holding enforced 10 yards from the UTE48 to the CAL42 [SG]. NO PLAY (replay the down).Similar
Q1 10:04
2ND & 18
OWN 42
+10
78.2%
Fernando Mendoza pass complete to Taj Davis for 10 yds to the UTAH 48Similar
Q1 5:41
3RD & 8
OPP 48
+48
73.5%
Fernando Mendoza pass complete to Jaydn Ott for 48 yds for a TD (Mateen Bhaghani KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UTAHDrive 4MISSED FG
11 plays · 60 yds · 3:4474% → 71%
Q1 5:02
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+9
73.5%
Bryson Barnes pass complete to Mikey Matthews for 9 yds to the UTAH 34Similar
Q1 5:02
2ND & 1
OWN 34
-1
74.0%
Sione Vaki run for a loss of 1 yard to the UTAH 33Similar
Q1 5:02
3RD & 2
OWN 33
+6
73.7%
Ja'Quinden Jackson run for 6 yds to the UTAH 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 5:02
1ST & 10
OWN 39
+32
73.9%
Sione Vaki run for 32 yds to the CAL 29 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 5:02
1ST & 10
OPP 29
0
74.8%
Devaughn Vele pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 5:02
2ND & 10
OPP 29
+11
74.8%
Ja'Quinden Jackson run for 11 yds to the CAL 18 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 5:02
1ST & 10
OPP 18
+3
74.8%
Ja'Quinden Jackson run for 3 yds to the CAL 15Similar
Q1 5:02
2ND & 7
OPP 15
0
74.8%
Bryson Barnes pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 5:02
3RD & 7
OPP 15
0
74.4%
Bryson Barnes pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 1:18
4TH & 7
OPP 15
+33
71.4%
Cole Becker 33 yd FG MISSEDSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CALDrive 5INT
6 plays · 22 yds · 2:4929% → 32%
Q1 1:18
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+10
70.6%
Fernando Mendoza pass complete to Taj Davis for 10 yds to the CAL 30 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 1:18
1ST & 10
OWN 30
+6
70.2%
Jaydn Ott run for 6 yds to the CAL 36Similar
Q1 0:00
2ND & 4
OWN 36
+5
68.8%
Fernando Mendoza pass complete to Trond Grizzell for 5 yds to the CAL 41 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 41
-8
68.4%
Fernando Mendoza sacked by Jonah Elliss and Connor O'Toole for a loss of 8 yards to the CAL 33Similar
Q2 15:00
2ND & 18
OWN 33
+9
69.8%
Fernando Mendoza pass complete to Jaivian Thomas for 9 yds to the CAL 42Similar
Q2 13:29
3RD & 9
OWN 42
0
67.6%
Fernando Mendoza pass interceptedSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UTAHDrive 6TD
10 plays · 48 yds · 5:3370% → 75%
Q2 13:29
1ST & 10
OPP 48
+4
70.4%
Ja'Quinden Jackson run for 4 yds to the CAL 44Similar
Q2 13:29
2ND & 6
OPP 44
0
70.4%
Ja'Quinden Jackson run for no gain to the CAL 44Similar
Q2 13:29
3RD & 6
OPP 44
+11
70.2%
Bryson Barnes run for 11 yds to the CAL 33 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 13:29
1ST & 10
OPP 33
+8
71.0%
Sione Vaki run for 8 yds to the CAL 25Similar
Q2 13:29
2ND & 2
OPP 25
+9
71.0%
Ja'Quinden Jackson run for 9 yds to the CAL 16 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 13:29
1ST & 10
OPP 16
0
71.0%
run for no gain to the CAL 16Similar
Q2 13:29
2ND & 10
OPP 16
+3
71.0%
Bryson Barnes run for 3 yds to the CAL 13Similar
Q2 13:29
3RD & 7
OPP 13
+8
70.3%
Bryson Barnes pass complete to Mikey Matthews for 8 yds to the CAL 5 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 13:29
1ST & GOAL
OPP 5
+2
71.0%
Ja'Quinden Jackson run for 2 yds to the CAL 3Similar
Q2 7:56
2ND & GOAL
OPP 3
+3
75.4%
Ja'Quinden Jackson run for 3 yds for a TD (Cole Becker KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CALDrive 7PUNT
6 plays · 15 yds · 1:1729% → 29%
Q2 7:56
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+10
70.6%
Jaydn Ott run for 10 yds to the CAL 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 7:01
1ST & 10
OWN 35
+5
69.8%
Fernando Mendoza run for 5 yds to the CAL 40Similar
Q2 7:01
2ND & 5
OWN 40
0
68.8%
Fernando Mendoza pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 7:01
3RD & 5
OWN 40
0
69.5%
Fernando Mendoza pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 6:39
4TH & 5
OWN 40
0
70.6%
Lachlan Wilson punt for 48 ydsSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UTAHDrive 8TD
17 plays · 89 yds · 6:1373% → 82%
Q2 6:39
1ST & 10
OWN 11
+5
72.6%
Ja'Quinden Jackson run for 5 yds to the UTAH 16Similar
Q2 6:39
2ND & 5
OWN 16
+5
72.6%
Sione Vaki run for 5 yds to the UTAH 21 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 6:39
1ST & 10
OWN 21
+5
72.7%
Bryson Barnes pass complete to Mikey Matthews for 5 yds to the UTAH 26Similar
Q2 6:39
2ND & 5
OWN 26
+1
73.0%
Ja'Quinden Jackson run for 1 yd to the UTAH 27Similar
Q2 6:39
3RD & 4
OWN 27
+11
72.2%
Bryson Barnes run for 11 yds to the UTAH 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 6:39
1ST & 10
OWN 38
+8
73.7%
Bryson Barnes run for 8 yds to the UTAH 46Similar
Q2 6:39
2ND & 2
OWN 46
+2
74.6%
Bryson Barnes pass complete to Emery Simmons for 2 yds to the UTAH 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 6:39
1ST & 10
OWN 48
+8
74.5%
Sione Vaki run for 8 yds to the CAL 44Similar
Q2 6:39
2ND & 2
OPP 44
0
74.9%
Bryson Barnes pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 1:28
3RD & 2
OPP 44
0
74.0%
Bryson Barnes run for no gain to the CAL 44Similar
Q2 1:28
4TH & 2
OPP 44
+9
72.9%
run for 9 yds to the CAL 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 1:28
1ST & 10
OPP 35
+9
75.2%
Bryson Barnes pass complete to Money Parks for 9 yds to the CAL 26Similar
Q2 1:28
2ND & 1
OPP 26
+15
75.3%
Bryson Barnes pass complete to Mikey Matthews for 15 yds to the CAL 11 for a 1ST down California Penalty, Personal Foul (Yards) to the CAL 6 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:35
1ST & GOAL
OPP 5
+4
74.1%
Ja'Quinden Jackson run for 4 yds to the CAL 1Similar
Q2 0:26
2ND & GOAL
OPP 1
+1
81.8%
Sione Vaki 1 Yd Run (Cole Becker Kick)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CALDrive 9END OF HALF
1 play · 1 yds · 0:0019% → 19%
Q2 0:00
1ST & 10
OWN 26
+1
80.7%
Fernando Mendoza pass complete to Trond Grizzell for 1 yd to the CAL 27Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UTAHDrive 10FG
8 plays · 70 yds · 4:2580% → 84%
Q3 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+17
79.9%
Bryson Barnes pass complete to Devaughn Vele for 17 yds to the UTAH 42 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 42
+3
81.2%
Ja'Quinden Jackson run for 3 yds to the UTAH 45Similar
Q3 15:00
2ND & 7
OWN 45
+2
81.3%
Sione Vaki run for 2 yds to the UTAH 47Similar
Q3 15:00
3RD & 5
OWN 47
+41
80.6%
Bryson Barnes pass complete to Munir McClain for 41 yds to the CAL 12 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 12
+3
81.7%
Bryson Barnes pass complete to Ja'Quinden Jackson for 3 yds to the CAL 9Similar
Q3 15:00
2ND & 7
OPP 9
+4
81.7%
Ja'Quinden Jackson run for 4 yds to the CAL 5Similar
Q3 15:00
3RD & 3
OPP 5
0
81.0%
Ja'Quinden Jackson run for no gain to the CAL 5Similar
Q3 10:35
4TH & 3
OPP 5
+23
83.7%
Cole Becker 23 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CALDrive 11FUMBLE
1 play · -12 yds · 0:0017% → 17%
Q3 10:27
1ST & 10
OWN 25
-12
83.3%
Fernando Mendoza sacked for a loss of 12 yards to the CAL 13Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UTAHDrive 12TD
3 plays · 13 yds · 1:1685% → 94%
Q3 10:27
1ST & 10
OPP 13
+5
85.4%
Ja'Quinden Jackson run for 5 yds to the CAL 8Similar
Q3 10:27
2ND & 5
OPP 8
+4
85.4%
Ja'Quinden Jackson run for 4 yds to the CAL 4Similar
Q3 9:11
3RD & 1
OPP 4
+4
93.5%
Bryson Barnes run for 4 yds for a TD (Cole Becker KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CALDrive 13PUNT
4 plays · 3 yds · 1:329% → 8%
Q3 9:11
1ST & 10
OWN 25
0
91.4%
Fernando Mendoza pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 9:11
2ND & 10
OWN 25
-10
91.6%
Fernando Mendoza sacked by Van Fillinger for a loss of 10 yards to the CAL 15Similar
Q3 9:11
3RD & 20
OWN 15
+13
91.7%
Fernando Mendoza run for 13 yds to the CAL 28Similar
Q3 7:39
4TH & 7
OWN 28
0
92.0%
Lachlan Wilson punt for 58 ydsSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UTAHDrive 14PUNT
4 plays · 5 yds · 1:4194% → 93%
Q3 7:39
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+5
93.6%
Ja'Quinden Jackson run for 5 yds to the UTAH 25Similar
Q3 7:39
2ND & 5
OWN 25
0
93.7%
Ja'Quinden Jackson run for no gain to the UTAH 25Similar
Q3 7:39
3RD & 5
OWN 25
0
93.5%
Bryson Barnes pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 5:58
4TH & 5
OWN 25
0
93.3%
Jack Bouwmeester punt for 40 yds, downed at the CAL 35Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CALDrive 15TD
6 plays · 65 yds · 1:377% → 19%
Q3 5:58
1ST & 10
OWN 35
+4
92.6%
Isaiah Ifanse run for 4 yds to the CAL 39Similar
Q3 5:58
2ND & 6
OWN 39
+15
92.6%
Fernando Mendoza pass complete to Jack Endries for 15 yds to the UTAH 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 5:58
1ST & 10
OPP 46
+6
92.3%
Fernando Mendoza pass complete to Taj Davis for 6 yds to the UTAH 40Similar
Q3 5:58
2ND & 4
OPP 40
+3
92.0%
Isaiah Ifanse run for 3 yds to the UTAH 37Similar
Q3 5:58
3RD & 1
OPP 37
+13
92.1%
Fernando Mendoza run for 13 yds to the UTAH 24 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 4:21
1ST & 10
OPP 24
+24
81.3%
Fernando Mendoza pass complete to Taj Davis for 24 yds for a TD (Mateen Bhaghani KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UTAHDrive 16DOWNS
12 plays · 45 yds · 6:2086% → 87%
Q3 4:14
1ST & 10
OWN 24
+5
85.6%
Bryson Barnes pass complete to Mikey Matthews for 5 yds to the UTAH 29Similar
Q3 4:14
2ND & 5
OWN 29
+8
85.9%
Sione Vaki run for 8 yds to the UTAH 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 4:14
1ST & 10
OWN 37
0
86.2%
Bryson Barnes pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 4:14
2ND & 10
OWN 37
+9
85.9%
Ja'Quinden Jackson run for 9 yds to the UTAH 46Similar
Q3 4:14
3RD & 1
OWN 46
+3
86.1%
Sione Vaki run for 3 yds to the UTAH 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 4:14
1ST & 10
OWN 49
+4
86.8%
Bryson Barnes pass complete to Jaylon Glover for 4 yds to the CAL 47Similar
Q3 4:14
2ND & 6
OPP 47
+3
86.9%
Jaylon Glover run for 3 yds to the CAL 44Similar
Q3 0:00
3RD & 3
OPP 44
+7
88.0%
Sione Vaki run for 7 yds to the CAL 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 37
-5
88.6%
Bryson Barnes pass complete to Sione Vaki for a loss of 5 yards to the CAL 42Similar
Q4 15:00
2ND & 15
OPP 42
+4
88.2%
Ja'Quinden Jackson run for 4 yds to the CAL 38Similar
Q4 15:00
3RD & 11
OPP 38
+4
87.6%
Bryson Barnes pass complete to Devaughn Vele for 4 yds to the CAL 34Similar
Q4 12:54
4TH & 7
OPP 34
+3
87.2%
Bryson Barnes run for 3 yds to the CAL 31Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CALDrive 17MISSED FG
14 plays · 57 yds · 5:0514% → 11%
Q4 12:54
1ST & 10
OWN 31
+9
86.4%
Jaydn Ott run for 9 yds to the CAL 40Similar
Q4 12:54
2ND & 1
OWN 40
+2
85.2%
Jaydn Ott run for 2 yds to the CAL 42 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 12:54
1ST & 10
OWN 42
0
85.5%
Fernando Mendoza pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 12:54
2ND & 10
OWN 42
-10
86.1%
MENDOZA, Fernando pass short to the left complete for 18 yards to JOHNSON, Jeffrey caught at the CAL45 and advanced to the UTE40 (VAUGHN, Zemaiah). PENALTY CAL Holding on MILLER, Barrett enforced 10 yards from the CAL42 to the CAL32 [NHSG]. NO PLAY (replay the down).Similar
Q4 12:54
2ND & 20
OWN 32
+10
87.5%
MENDOZA, Fernando pass to the left complete for 17 yards to YOUNG, Monroe caught at the CAL45 and advanced to the CAL49 (BATTLE, Miles). PENALTY UTE Holding on BATTLE, Miles enforced 10 yards from the CAL32 to the CAL42 and results in automatic 1ST DOWN [NHSG]. NO PLAY (replay the down).Similar
Q4 12:54
1ST & 10
OWN 42
+13
85.5%
Jaydn Ott run for 13 yds to the UTAH 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 12:54
1ST & 10
OPP 45
0
84.4%
Ben Finley pass complete to Brian Hightower for no gain to the UTAH 45Similar
Q4 12:54
2ND & 10
OPP 45
+20
84.6%
Ben Finley pass complete to Taj Davis for 20 yds to the UTAH 25 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 12:54
1ST & 10
OPP 25
0
83.1%
Ben Finley pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 12:54
2ND & 10
OPP 25
0
83.5%
FINLEY, Ben pass to the right incomplete intended for JOHNSON, Jeffrey thrown to the UTE10. PENALTY UTE Personal Foul on BISHOP, Cole enforced half the distance from the goal, 12 yards from the UTE25 to the UTE13 and results in automatic 1ST DOWN [NHSG]. NO PLAY (replay the down).Similar
Q4 12:54
1ST & 10
OPP 12
-2
83.0%
Ben Finley sacked by Van Fillinger for a loss of 2 yards to the UTAH 14Similar
Q4 12:54
2ND & 12
OPP 14
+2
83.5%
Jaydn Ott run for 2 yds to the UTAH 12Similar
Q4 12:54
3RD & 10
OPP 12
0
84.8%
Fernando Mendoza pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 7:49
4TH & 10
OPP 12
+30
89.4%
Mateen Bhaghani 30 yd FG MISSEDSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UTAHDrive 18TD
2 plays · 80 yds · 0:5891% → 97%
Q4 7:49
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+8
90.9%
Bryson Barnes pass complete to Mikey Matthews for 8 yds to the UTAH 28Similar
Q4 6:51
2ND & 2
OWN 28
+72
97.4%
Sione Vaki 72 Yd Run (Cole Becker Kick)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CALDrive 19DOWNS
12 plays · 19 yds · 2:113% → 2%
Q4 6:43
1ST & 10
OWN 20
0
97.0%
Ben Finley pass complete to Jaydn Ott for no gain to the CAL 20Similar
Q4 6:43
2ND & 10
OWN 20
0
97.1%
Ben Finley pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 6:43
3RD & 10
OWN 20
+17
97.1%
Ben Finley pass complete to Monroe Young for 17 yds to the CAL 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 6:43
1ST & 10
OWN 37
+4
96.8%
Ben Finley run for 4 yds to the CAL 41Similar
Q4 6:43
2ND & 6
OWN 41
-4
96.8%
run for a loss of 4 yards to the CAL 37Similar
Q4 6:43
3RD & 10
OWN 37
0
97.1%
Ben Finley pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 6:43
4TH & 10
OWN 37
0
97.1%
FINLEY, Ben pass short to the right incomplete intended for HUNTER, Jeremiah thrown to the CAL41. PENALTY UTE Offsides on TAFUNA, Junior declined UTE Personal Foul on TAFUNA, Junior enforced 15 yards from the CAL37 to the UTE48 and results in automatic 1ST DOWN [NHSG]. NO PLAY (replay the down).Similar
Q4 6:43
1ST & 10
OPP 48
0
96.7%
Ben Finley pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 6:43
2ND & 10
OPP 48
-5
96.7%
California Penalty, False Start (Brian Driscoll) to the CAL 47Similar
Q4 6:43
2ND & 15
OWN 47
0
97.0%
Ben Finley pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 6:43
3RD & 15
OWN 47
0
97.1%
Ben Finley pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 4:32
4TH & 15
OWN 47
-8
98.0%
Ben Finley sacked by Nate Ritchie for a loss of 8 yards to the CAL 39Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UTAHDrive 20FG
10 plays · 19 yds · 2:2198% → 100%
Q4 4:18
2ND & 6
OPP 35
-3
98.2%
Jaylon Glover run for a loss of 3 yards to the CAL 38Similar
Q4 4:18
3RD & 9
OPP 38
+10
98.5%
Bryson Barnes run for 10 yds to the CAL 28 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 4:18
1ST & 10
OPP 28
+4
98.5%
Jaylon Glover run for 4 yds to the CAL 24Similar
Q4 4:18
2ND & 6
OPP 24
+4
98.5%
Jaylon Glover run for 4 yds to the CAL 20Similar
Q4 4:15
1ST & 10
OPP 39
+4
98.6%
Jaylon Glover run for 4 yds to the CAL 35Similar
Q4 2:02
3RD & 2
OPP 20
0
98.9%
Jaylon Glover run for no gain to the CAL 20Similar
Q4 1:57
4TH & 2
OPP 20
+38
99.6%
Cole Becker 38 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CALDrive 21DOWNS
4 plays · 2 yds · 0:520% → 0%
Q4 1:57
1ST & 10
OWN 35
0
99.8%
Ben Finley pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 1:57
2ND & 10
OWN 35
0
99.8%
Ben Finley pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 1:57
3RD & 10
OWN 35
+2
99.8%
Ben Finley pass complete to Taj Davis for 2 yds to the CAL 37Similar
Q4 1:05
4TH & 8
OWN 37
0
99.8%
Ben Finley pass incompleteSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UTAHDrive 22END OF 4TH QUARTER
2 plays · 3 yds · 1:05100% → 100%
Q4 1:05
1ST & 10
OPP 37
+1
99.6%
John Randle Jr. run for 1 yd to the CAL 36Similar
Q4 0:00
2ND & 9
OPP 36
+2
99.7%
John Randle Jr. run for 2 yds to the CAL 34Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
TD · Q3 4:21
Fernando Mendoza pass complete to Taj Davis for 24 yds for a TD (Mateen Bhaghani KICK)
-10.8
TD · Q3 9:11
Bryson Barnes run for 4 yds for a TD (Cole Becker KICK)
+8.1
TD · Q2 0:26
Sione Vaki 1 Yd Run (Cole Becker Kick)
+7.7
YardLine · model v10Model estimate - not betting advice · Data provided by CollegeFootballData.com