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USC

USC 20 at Notre Dame 48

ND
2023 · Week 7 · Oct 14, 2023 · Notre Dame Stadium
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Win probability · ND
modelND aheadUSC aheadconfidence bandkey playND scoreUSC score
0%25%50%75%100%Q1Q2Q3Q4TDFGFGTDTDFGTDTDTDFGFUMBLEEnd of Game
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q2 5:07 · Bryce McFerson punt for 51 yds , Zachariah Branch returns for no gain to the USC 6
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Home team on offenseScore differentialGarbage-time factorScore diff ÷ offense timeoutsPregame priorBlowout margin
+37.0+18.50−18.5−37.0Q1Q2Q3Q4Play 57Home team on offense+5.4Score differential+1.4Garbage-time factor+1.7Score diff ÷ offense timeouts+1.3Pregame prior+1.9Blowout margin−0.6
This game in five plays
  1. TD · Q2 4:14: Audric Estime run for 2 yds for a TD (Spencer Shrader KICK) — ND win probability +10.7 pts (now 76%) (top driver: ND has the ball).
  2. TD · Q2 1:30: Audric Estime run for 1 yd for a TD (Spencer Shrader KICK) — ND win probability +11.0 pts (now 92%) (top driver: ND has the ball).
  3. TD · Q3 7:20: MarShawn Lloyd run for 31 yds for a TD (Denis Lynch KICK) — USC win probability +9.2 pts (now 26%) (top driver: USC has the ball).
  4. TD · Q3 3:54: Sam Hartman pass complete to Chris Tyree for 46 yds for a TD (Spencer Shrader KICK) — ND win probability +12.1 pts (now 94%) (top driver: ND has the ball).
  5. TD · Q4 9:04: Caleb Williams pass complete to Brenden Rice for 7 yds for a TD (Denis Lynch KICK) — USC win probability +9.0 pts (now 15%) (top driver: USC has the ball).
Was that the right call?

Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works

Fourth downs
ND made the numbers' call on 5 of 7USC made the numbers' call on 5 of 7
  1. Q1 8:46USC 4th & 3 at USC 41, down 7
    Close callPunted · 38.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    38.7%
    52% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    38.7%−<0.1
    average punt
  2. Q1 6:38ND 4th & 5 at ND 30, up 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 61.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    61.9%−0.1
    41% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    62.0%
    average punt
  3. Q1 1:13USC 4th & 5 at ND 8, down 7
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 37.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    36.8%−<0.1
    34% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    36.8%
    90% to make
    Punt
    33.7%−3.1
    average punt
  4. Q2 12:19ND 4th & 2 at USC 18, up 4
    Close callKicked a field goal · 61.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    61.8%
    56% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    61.3%−0.5
    79% to make
    Punt
    58.1%−3.7
    average punt
  5. Q2 8:24USC 4th & 1 at ND 46, down 7
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 34.5% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    34.6%
    70% to convert
    Field goal
    31.3%−3.3
    23% to make
    Punt
    32.5%−2.1
    average punt
  6. Q2 6:05USC 4th & 1 at ND 29, down 7
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 33.9% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    33.8%
    71% to convert
    Field goal
    31.9%−1.9
    58% to make
    Punt
    27.7%−6.1
    average punt
  7. Q2 5:07ND 4th & 6 at ND 37, up 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 67.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    67.3%−0.3
    40% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    67.6%
    average punt
  8. Q3 13:54ND 4th & 7 at ND 25, up 18
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 87.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    87.1%−1.0
    35% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    88.1%
    average punt
  9. Q3 13:01USC 4th & 14 at USC 26, down 18
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 14.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    12.7%−2.4
    17% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    15.1%
    average punt
  10. Q3 10:53ND 4th & 4 at ND 31, up 18
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 89.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    90.3%−0.8
    48% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    91.1%
    average punt
  11. Q3 0:08USC 4th & 23 at USC 39, down 18
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 5.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    3.9%−2.0
    7% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    5.9%
    average punt
  12. Q4 11:13ND 4th & 9 at ND 34, up 18
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 96.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    96.3%−0.6
    31% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    96.8%
    average punt
  13. Q4 4:49USC 4th & 9 at USC 22, down 19
    Close callWent for it · 1.9% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    1.5%−<0.1
    30% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    Punt
    1.5%
    average punt
  14. Q4 3:40ND 4th & 1 at USC 5, up 19
    Close callKicked a field goal · 98.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    98.8%
    67% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    98.2%−0.6
    92% to make
    Punt
    96.9%−1.9
    average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
ND made the numbers' call on 4 of 4USC made the numbers' call on 1 of 2
  1. Q1 11:30ND Touchdown, up 6 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    60.2%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    60.2%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  2. Q2 4:14ND Touchdown, up 13 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    77.3%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    77.2%−0.1
    45% to convert
  3. Q2 1:30ND Touchdown, up 20 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    91.1%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    91.0%−0.1
    45% to convert
  4. Q3 7:20USC Touchdown, down 12 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    17.6%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    17.4%−0.1
    45% to convert
  5. Q3 3:54ND Touchdown, up 17 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    93.3%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    93.2%−0.1
    45% to convert
  6. Q4 9:04USC Touchdown, down 12 before the try
    Close callKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    8.8%−<0.1
    97% to make
    Go for two
    8.8%
    45% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chart
USCDrive 1INT
4 plays · 12 yds · 2:0747% → 47%
Q1 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+1
53.3%
MarShawn Lloyd run for 1 yd to the USC 26Similar
Q1 15:00
2ND & 9
OWN 26
0
53.3%
Caleb Williams run for no gain to the USC 26Similar
Q1 15:00
3RD & 9
OWN 26
+11
53.3%
Caleb Williams pass complete to Brenden Rice for 11 yds to the USC 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 12:53
1ST & 10
OWN 37
0
53.4%
Caleb Williams pass intercepted by Xavier Watts at USC 50, returned 38 yds to USC 12Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NDDrive 2TD
3 plays · 12 yds · 1:2354% → 55%
Q1 12:53
1ST & 10
OPP 12
+6
53.9%
Audric Estime run for 6 yds to the USC 6Similar
Q1 12:53
2ND & 4
OPP 6
+2
53.9%
Audric Estime run for 2 yds to the USC 4Similar
Q1 11:30
3RD & 2
OPP 4
+4
55.4%
Sam Hartman pass complete to Gi'Bran Payne for 4 yds for a TD (Spencer Shrader KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USCDrive 3PUNT
7 plays · 22 yds · 2:3745% → 44%
Q1 11:23
1ST & 10
OWN 19
+5
55.0%
Austin Jones run for 5 yds to the USC 24Similar
Q1 11:23
2ND & 5
OWN 24
+10
55.0%
WILLIAMS, Caleb pass to the right incomplete intended for JACKSON III, Michael thrown to the USC34. PENALTY UND Holding on MORRISON, Benjamin enforced 10 yards from the USC24 to the USC34 and results in automatic 1ST DOWN [NHSG]. NO PLAY (replay the down).Similar
Q1 11:23
1ST & 10
OWN 34
+4
54.9%
Caleb Williams run for 4 yds to the USC 38Similar
Q1 11:23
2ND & 6
OWN 38
-5
54.8%
USC Penalty, False Start (-5 Yards) to the USC 33Similar
Q1 11:23
2ND & 11
OWN 33
+3
55.0%
Austin Jones run for 3 yds to the USC 36Similar
Q1 11:23
3RD & 8
OWN 36
+5
55.0%
Caleb Williams pass complete to Tahj Washington for 5 yds to the USC 41Similar
Q1 8:46
4TH & 3
OWN 41
0
56.3%
Eddie Czaplicki punt for 45 ydsSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NDDrive 4PUNT
5 plays · 16 yds · 2:0856% → 57%
Q1 8:46
1ST & 10
OWN 14
+11
56.4%
Audric Estime run for 11 yds to the ND 25 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 8:46
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+4
56.4%
Sam Hartman pass complete to Audric Estime for 4 yds to the ND 29Similar
Q1 8:46
2ND & 6
OWN 29
+1
56.4%
Audric Estime run for 1 yd to the ND 30Similar
Q1 8:46
3RD & 5
OWN 30
0
56.2%
Sam Hartman pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 6:38
4TH & 5
OWN 30
0
56.9%
Bryce McFerson punt for 37 yds, fair catch by Zachariah Branch at the USC 33Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USCDrive 5FG
11 plays · 59 yds · 5:2543% → 44%
Q1 6:38
1ST & 10
OWN 33
+21
57.1%
Caleb Williams run for 11 yds to the ND 44 for a 1ST down Notre Dame Penalty, Defensive Holding (10 Yards) to the ND 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 6:38
1ST & 10
OPP 46
+1
56.5%
Austin Jones run for 1 yd to the ND 45Similar
Q1 6:38
2ND & 9
OPP 45
+11
56.5%
Caleb Williams pass complete to Dorian Singer for 11 yds to the ND 34 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 6:38
1ST & 10
OPP 34
+3
56.1%
Austin Jones run for 3 yds to the ND 31Similar
Q1 6:38
2ND & 7
OPP 31
+7
56.0%
Caleb Williams pass complete to Zachariah Branch for 7 yds to the ND 24 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 6:38
1ST & 10
OPP 24
-15
56.0%
WILLIAMS, Caleb pass to the right complete for 13 yards to SINGER, Dorian caught at the UND11 and advanced to the UND11, out of bounds. PENALTY USC Pass Interference on SINGER, Dorian enforced 15 yards to the UND39 [NHSG]. NO PLAY (replay the down).Similar
Q1 6:38
1ST & 25
OPP 39
+12
56.8%
Notre Dame Penalty, Personal Foul (Benjamin Morrison) to the ND 14 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 6:38
1ST & 10
OPP 13
+1
56.0%
Caleb Williams pass complete to MarShawn Lloyd for 1 yd to the ND 12Similar
Q1 6:38
2ND & 9
OPP 12
+3
56.0%
MarShawn Lloyd run for 3 yds to the ND 9Similar
Q1 6:38
3RD & 6
OPP 9
+1
56.4%
Caleb Williams pass complete to Michael Jackson III for 1 yd to the ND 8Similar
Q1 1:13
4TH & 5
OPP 8
+25
55.7%
Denis Lynch 25 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NDDrive 6FG
8 plays · 46 yds · 3:4857% → 62%
Q1 1:07
1ST & 10
OWN 36
-1
56.9%
Jeremiyah Love run for a loss of 1 yard to the ND 35Similar
Q1 0:00
2ND & 11
OWN 35
+7
56.7%
Sam Hartman pass complete to Jordan Faison for 7 yds to the ND 42Similar
Q2 15:00
3RD & 4
OWN 42
+16
57.2%
Sam Hartman pass complete to Chris Tyree for 16 yds to the USC 42 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 42
+16
58.2%
Jordan Faison run for 16 yds to the USC 26 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 26
+3
58.5%
Jeremiyah Love run for 3 yds to the USC 23Similar
Q2 15:00
2ND & 7
OPP 23
0
58.5%
Sam Hartman pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 15:00
3RD & 7
OPP 23
+5
57.9%
Sam Hartman pass complete to Mitchell Evans for 5 yds to the USC 18Similar
Q2 12:19
4TH & 2
OPP 18
+36
61.8%
Spencer Shrader 36 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USCDrive 7DOWNS
15 plays · 42 yds · 6:1439% → 37%
Q2 12:19
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+10
61.1%
Tahj Washington run for 10 yds to the USC 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 12:19
1ST & 10
OWN 35
+6
60.6%
Austin Jones run for 6 yds to the USC 41Similar
Q2 12:19
2ND & 4
OWN 41
0
59.6%
Austin Jones run for no gain to the USC 41Similar
Q2 12:19
3RD & 4
OWN 41
+4
59.9%
Caleb Williams pass complete to Mario Williams for 4 yds to the USC 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 12:19
1ST & 10
OWN 45
-6
59.9%
WILLIAMS, Caleb pass short to the right complete for 6 yards to WILLIAMS, Mario caught at the USC47 and advanced to the USC47 (BERTRAND, JD). PENALTY Before the snap, UND Illegal Substitution USC Ineligible Receiver Downfield on Pass , Offsetting penalties [NHSG]. NO PLAY (replay the down).Similar
Q2 12:19
1ST & 10
OWN 45
0
59.9%
Caleb Williams pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 12:19
2ND & 10
OWN 45
+7
60.2%
MarShawn Lloyd run for 7 yds to the ND 48Similar
Q2 12:19
3RD & 3
OPP 48
-3
59.5%
MarShawn Lloyd run for a loss of 3 yards to the USC 49Similar
Q2 8:24
4TH & 6
OWN 49
+5
63.0%
CZAPLICKI, Eddie punt 32 yards to the UND19, fair catch by TYREE, Chris, clock 08:24. PENALTY UND Running Into the kicker on SNEED, Jaylen enforced 5 yards from the USC49 to the UND46. NO PLAY (replay the down).Similar
Q2 8:24
4TH & 1
OPP 46
+8
62.0%
Caleb Williams run for 8 yds to the ND 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 8:24
1ST & 10
OPP 38
0
60.9%
Caleb Williams pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 7:39
2ND & 10
OPP 38
-10
61.6%
QB Keeper WILLIAMS, Caleb rush up the middle for a gain of 38 yards to the UND0, TOUCHDOWN USC, score nullified by penalty, clock 07:39 (Play was confirmed after review). PENALTY USC Holding on PREGNON, Emmanuel enforced 10 yards from the UND38 to the UND48 [NHSG]. NO PLAY (replay the down).Similar
Q2 7:39
2ND & 20
OPP 48
+17
63.0%
Zachariah Branch run for 17 yds to the ND 31Similar
Q2 7:39
3RD & 3
OPP 31
+2
61.4%
Austin Jones run for 2 yds to the ND 29Similar
Q2 6:05
4TH & 1
OPP 29
-4
62.9%
Austin Jones run for a loss of 4 yards to the ND 33Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NDDrive 8PUNT
4 plays · 4 yds · 0:5866% → 65%
Q2 6:05
1ST & 10
OWN 33
+4
65.7%
Audric Estime run for 4 yds to the ND 37Similar
Q2 6:05
2ND & 6
OWN 37
0
66.6%
Sam Hartman pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 6:05
3RD & 6
OWN 37
0
65.5%
Sam Hartman pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 5:07
4TH & 6
OWN 37
0
64.8%
Bryce McFerson punt for 51 yds , Zachariah Branch returns for no gain to the USC 6Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USCDrive 9INT
3 plays · 10 yds · 0:5035% → 35%
Q2 5:07
1ST & 10
OWN 6
0
65.3%
Caleb Williams pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 5:07
2ND & 10
OWN 6
+10
65.5%
Caleb Williams pass complete to Zachariah Branch for 10 yds to the USC 16 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 4:17
1ST & 10
OWN 16
0
65.3%
Caleb Williams pass intercepted by Xavier Watts at USC 25, returned 23 yds to USC 2.Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NDDrive 10TD
1 play · 2 yds · 0:0076% → 76%
Q2 4:14
1ST & GOAL
OPP 2
+2
75.9%
Audric Estime run for 2 yds for a TD (Spencer Shrader KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USCDrive 11INT
4 plays · 10 yds · 0:3926% → 26%
Q2 4:14
1ST & 10
OWN 25
0
73.6%
Caleb Williams pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 4:14
2ND & 10
OWN 25
+10
73.8%
Caleb Williams pass complete to Mario Williams for 10 yds to the USC 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 4:14
1ST & 10
OWN 35
0
73.3%
Caleb Williams pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 3:35
2ND & 10
OWN 35
0
73.8%
Caleb Williams pass intercepted by Benjamin Morrison at UND 50Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NDDrive 12TD
6 plays · 50 yds · 2:0577% → 92%
Q2 3:35
1ST & 10
50
+24
76.7%
Sam Hartman pass complete to Rico Flores Jr. for 24 yds to the USC 26 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 3:35
1ST & 10
OPP 26
+12
76.7%
Sam Hartman run for 12 yds to the USC 14 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 3:35
1ST & 10
OPP 14
+5
76.6%
Audric Estime run for 5 yds to the USC 9Similar
Q2 1:32
2ND & 5
OPP 9
+8
79.2%
Audric Estime run for 8 yds to the USC 1 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 1:30
1ST & GOAL
OPP 1
+1
91.5%
Audric Estime run for 1 yd for a TD (Spencer Shrader KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USCDrive 13FG
11 plays · 44 yds · 1:3011% → 11%
Q2 1:30
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+9
88.7%
Caleb Williams pass complete to Tahj Washington for 9 yds to the USC 34Similar
Q2 1:30
2ND & 1
OWN 34
+20
87.7%
Caleb Williams pass complete to Mario Williams for 20 yds to the ND 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:39
1ST & 10
OPP 46
+3
88.2%
Caleb Williams run for 3 yds to the ND 43Similar
Q2 0:29
2ND & 7
OPP 43
+4
91.6%
MarShawn Lloyd run for 4 yds to the ND 39Similar
Q2 0:29
3RD & 3
OPP 39
+14
89.4%
Caleb Williams pass complete to Tahj Washington for 14 yds to the ND 25 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:29
1ST & 10
OPP 25
0
90.9%
Caleb Williams pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 0:02
2ND & 10
OPP 25
-6
91.0%
Caleb Williams sacked by Boubacar Traore for a loss of 6 yards to the ND 31Similar
Q2 0:00
3RD & 16
OPP 31
+48
88.9%
Denis Lynch 48 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NDDrive 14PUNT
4 plays · 3 yds · 1:0083% → 86%
Q3 14:54
1ST & 10
OWN 22
0
82.6%
Sam Hartman pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 14:54
2ND & 10
OWN 22
+3
82.6%
Sam Hartman pass complete to Holden Staes for 3 yds to the ND 25Similar
Q3 14:54
3RD & 7
OWN 25
0
81.9%
Sam Hartman pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 13:54
4TH & 7
OWN 25
0
86.0%
Bryce McFerson punt for 50 ydsSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USCDrive 15PUNT
4 plays · -4 yds · 0:5317% → 15%
Q3 13:54
1ST & 10
OWN 30
0
83.1%
Caleb Williams pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 13:54
2ND & 10
OWN 30
-4
83.9%
Caleb Williams pass complete to Mario Williams for a loss of 4 yards to the USC 26Similar
Q3 13:54
3RD & 14
OWN 26
0
84.2%
Caleb Williams pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 13:01
4TH & 14
OWN 26
0
84.7%
Eddie Czaplicki punt for 51 ydsSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NDDrive 16PUNT
6 plays · 6 yds · 2:0888% → 86%
Q3 13:01
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+1
87.7%
Sam Hartman pass complete to Jordan Faison for 1 yd to the ND 26Similar
Q3 13:01
2ND & 9
OWN 26
+4
87.6%
Jeremiyah Love run for 4 yds to the ND 30Similar
Q3 13:01
3RD & 5
OWN 30
+1
87.5%
Sam Hartman pass complete to Devyn Ford for 1 yd to the ND 31Similar
Q3 10:53
4TH & 4
OWN 31
0
88.9%
Bryce McFerson punt for 47 ydsSimilar
Q3 10:53
1ST & 10
OWN 43
-15
84.7%
WILLIAMS, Caleb pass short to the left complete for 10 yards to WASHINGTON, Tahj caught at the USC45 and advanced to the UND47 (LIUFAU, Marist), out of bounds. PENALTY USC Pass Interference on WILLIAMS, Mario enforced 15 yards to the USC28 [NHSG]. NO PLAY (replay the down).Similar
Q3 10:53
1ST & 25
OWN 28
+15
85.7%
WILLIAMS, Caleb pass deep to the left incomplete intended for RICE, Brenden thrown to the UND25. PENALTY UND Pass Interference on MORRISON, Benjamin enforced 15 yards to the USC43 and results in automatic 1ST DOWN [NHSG]. NO PLAY (replay the down).Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USCDrive 17TD
6 plays · 57 yds · 3:3315% → 26%
Q3 10:53
1ST & 10
OWN 43
0
84.7%
Zachariah Branch run for no gain to the USC 43Similar
Q3 10:53
2ND & 10
OWN 43
+11
85.1%
Caleb Williams pass complete to Dorian Singer for 11 yds to the ND 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 10:53
1ST & 10
OPP 46
-10
84.1%
Caleb Williams sacked by Nana Osafo-Mensah and JD Bertrand for a loss of 10 yards to the USC 44Similar
Q3 10:53
2ND & 20
OWN 44
+21
86.0%
Caleb Williams pass complete to Lake McRee for 21 yds to the ND 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 10:53
1ST & 10
OPP 35
+4
83.2%
Caleb Williams run for 4 yds to the ND 31Similar
Q3 7:20
2ND & 6
OPP 31
+31
74.1%
MarShawn Lloyd run for 31 yds for a TD (Denis Lynch KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NDDrive 18TD
6 plays · 68 yds · 3:2080% → 94%
Q3 7:14
1ST & 10
OWN 32
+7
80.2%
Audric Estime run for 7 yds to the ND 39Similar
Q3 7:14
2ND & 3
OWN 39
+4
81.3%
Audric Estime run for 4 yds to the ND 43 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 7:14
1ST & 10
OWN 43
+3
81.3%
Audric Estime run for 3 yds to the ND 46Similar
Q3 7:14
2ND & 7
OWN 46
+8
81.3%
Sam Hartman pass complete to Mitchell Evans for 8 yds to the USC 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 7:14
1ST & 10
OPP 46
0
81.6%
Audric Estime run for no gain to the USC 46Similar
Q3 3:54
2ND & 10
OPP 46
+46
93.7%
Sam Hartman pass complete to Chris Tyree for 46 yds for a TD (Spencer Shrader KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USCDrive 19PUNT
10 plays · 14 yds · 3:468% → 7%
Q3 3:54
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+13
91.9%
Caleb Williams pass complete to Tahj Washington for 13 yds to the USC 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 3:54
1ST & 10
OWN 38
0
91.5%
Caleb Williams pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 2:46
2ND & 10
OWN 38
+4
90.7%
MarShawn Lloyd run for 4 yds to the USC 42Similar
Q3 2:46
3RD & 6
OWN 42
+10
90.8%
Caleb Williams pass complete to Michael Jackson III for 10 yds to the ND 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 2:46
1ST & 10
OPP 48
-8
90.3%
Caleb Williams sacked by Marist Liufau for a loss of 8 yards to the USC 44Similar
Q3 2:46
2ND & 18
OWN 44
-10
91.4%
Caleb Williams sacked by Rylie Mills and Nana Osafo-Mensah for a loss of 10 yards to the USC 34Similar
Q3 2:46
3RD & 28
OWN 34
+10
91.6%
Caleb Williams pass complete to Michael Jackson III for 10 yds to the USC 44Similar
Q3 2:46
4TH & 18
OWN 44
-5
91.6%
USC Penalty, False Start (Jac Casasante) to the USC 39Similar
Q3 0:08
4TH & 23
OWN 39
0
93.4%
Eddie Czaplicki punt for 54 ydsSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NDDrive 20PUNT
8 plays · 27 yds · 3:4793% → 96%
Q3 0:00
1ST & 10
OWN 7
+14
93.4%
Audric Estime run for 14 yds to the ND 21 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 21
+4
94.6%
Audric Estime run for 4 yds to the ND 25Similar
Q4 15:00
2ND & 6
OWN 25
+1
94.6%
Audric Estime run for 1 yd to the ND 26Similar
Q4 15:00
3RD & 5
OWN 26
+7
94.7%
Sam Hartman pass complete to Holden Staes for 7 yds to the ND 33 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 33
+1
94.8%
Audric Estime run for 1 yd to the ND 34Similar
Q4 15:00
2ND & 9
OWN 34
0
94.7%
Sam Hartman pass complete to Jadarian Price for no gain to the ND 34Similar
Q4 15:00
3RD & 9
OWN 34
0
94.7%
Sam Hartman pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 11:13
4TH & 9
OWN 34
0
96.2%
Bryce McFerson punt for 44 ydsSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USCDrive 21TD
5 plays · 18 yds · 2:096% → 15%
Q4 11:13
1ST & 10
OPP 18
+1
94.0%
Austin Jones run for 1 yd to the ND 17Similar
Q4 11:13
2ND & 9
OPP 17
+7
94.0%
Austin Jones run for 7 yds to the ND 10Similar
Q4 11:13
3RD & 2
OPP 10
+3
94.5%
Austin Jones run for 3 yds to the ND 7 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 11:13
1ST & GOAL
OPP 7
0
94.0%
Caleb Williams pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 9:04
2ND & GOAL
OPP 7
+7
85.0%
Caleb Williams pass complete to Brenden Rice for 7 yds for a TD (Denis Lynch KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USCDrive 22DOWNS
10 plays · 4 yds · 3:574% → 2%
Q4 8:46
1ST & 10
OWN 10
-1
95.9%
MarShawn Lloyd run for a loss of 1 yard to the USC 9Similar
Q4 8:46
2ND & 11
OWN 9
0
96.1%
USC Penalty, False Start (Jonah Monheim) to the USC 5Similar
Q4 8:46
2ND & 15
OWN 5
+6
96.1%
Caleb Williams run for 6 yds to the USC 11Similar
Q4 8:46
3RD & 9
OWN 11
+10
96.0%
Caleb Williams pass complete to Michael Jackson III for 10 yds to the USC 21 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 8:46
1ST & 10
OWN 21
-2
95.9%
Caleb Williams sacked by Thomas Harper for a loss of 2 yards to the USC 19Similar
Q4 8:46
2ND & 12
OWN 19
0
96.0%
Caleb Williams pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 8:46
3RD & 12
OWN 19
-5
96.0%
USC Penalty, False Start (Dorian Singer) to the USC 14Similar
Q4 4:54
3RD & 17
OWN 14
+8
97.8%
Caleb Williams pass complete to Michael Jackson III for 8 yds to the USC 22Similar
Q4 4:49
4TH & 9
OWN 22
-8
97.8%
Caleb Williams sacked by Jaylen Sneed for a loss of 8 yards to the USC 14Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NDDrive 23FG
6 plays · 9 yds · 1:0999% → 100%
Q4 4:49
1ST & 10
OPP 14
+7
99.4%
Audric Estime run for 7 yds to the USC 7Similar
Q4 3:54
2ND & 3
OPP 7
+1
99.5%
Audric Estime run for 1 yd to the USC 6Similar
Q4 3:43
3RD & 2
OPP 6
+1
99.6%
Audric Estime run for 1 yd to the USC 5Similar
Q4 3:40
4TH & 1
OPP 5
+23
99.7%
Spencer Shrader 23 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USCDrive 24FUMBLE TD
1 play · -2 yds · 0:000% → 0%
Q4 3:27
1ST & 10
OWN 17
0
100.0%
Caleb Williams pass complete to Mario Williams for a loss of 2 yards for a TD Mario Williams fumbled, recovered by ND Xavier Watts for a TD (Spencer Shrader KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USCDrive 25FUMBLE
2 plays · 11 yds · 0:310% → 0%
Q4 3:27
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+10
100.0%
Quinten Joyner run for 10 yds to the USC 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 2:56
1ST & 10
OWN 35
+1
100.0%
Quinten Joyner run for 1 yd to the USC 36 Quinten Joyner fumbled, recovered by ND Javontae Jean-BaptisteSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NDDrive 26END OF GAME
4 plays · 8 yds · 2:56100% → 100%
Q4 2:56
1ST & 10
OPP 36
+3
99.9%
Audric Estime run for 3 yds to the USC 33Similar
Q4 2:56
2ND & 7
OPP 33
+9
99.9%
Audric Estime run for 9 yds to the USC 24 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 2:56
1ST & 10
OPP 24
0
99.9%
Kneel down by HARTMAN, Sam at USC26 (team loss of 2).Similar
Q4 0:00
2ND & 12
OPP 26
0
100.0%
Kneel down by HARTMAN, Sam at USC28 (team loss of 2), clock 00:00.Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
TD · Q3 3:54
Sam Hartman pass complete to Chris Tyree for 46 yds for a TD (Spencer Shrader KICK)
+12.1
TD · Q2 1:30
Audric Estime run for 1 yd for a TD (Spencer Shrader KICK)
+11
TD · Q2 4:14
Audric Estime run for 2 yds for a TD (Spencer Shrader KICK)
+10.7
YardLine · model v10Model estimate - not betting advice · Data provided by CollegeFootballData.com