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STAN

Stanford 46 at Colorado 43

COLO
2023 · Week 7 · Oct 13, 2023 · Folsom Field
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Win probability · COLO
modelCOLO aheadSTAN aheadconfidence bandkey playCOLO scoreSTAN score
0%25%50%75%100%Q1Q2Q3Q4OTOT2TDTDTDTDTDTDTDTDTDTDTDTDFGTDTDFGEnd of Game
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q1 13:28 · Connor Weselman punt for 43 yds , Jimmy Horn Jr. returns for 6 yds to the COLO 23
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Home team on offensePregame priorScore differentialGarbage-time factorScore diff ÷ offense timeoutsBlowout margin
+29.5+14.80−14.8−29.5Q1Q2Q3Q4OTOT2Play 7Home team on offense+0.0Pregame prior+27.3Score differential−0.1Garbage-time factor+0.0Score diff ÷ offense timeouts−0.1Blowout margin+0.0
This game in five plays
  1. TD · Q4 12:29: Justin Lamson 1 Yd Run (Joshua Karty Kick) — STAN win probability +17.2 pts (now 36%) (top driver: Deficit strained by the offense's own timeouts).
  2. TD · Q4 5:06: Ashton Daniels pass complete to Bryce Farrell for 3 yds for a TD (Joshua Karty KICK) — STAN win probability +25.2 pts (now 37%) (top driver: Deficit strained by the offense's own timeouts).
  3. FG · Q4 0:00: Joshua Karty 46 yd FG GOOD — STAN win probability +37.9 pts (now 52%) (top driver: STAN has the ball).
  4. TD · OT 0:00: Ashton Daniels pass complete to Elic Ayomanor for 30 yds for a TD (Joshua Karty KICK) — STAN win probability +37.5 pts (now 57%) (top driver: offense timeouts not recorded for this play).
  5. FG · OT2 0:00: Joshua Karty 31 yd FG GOOD — STAN win probability +31.0 pts (now 88%) (top driver: STAN has the ball).
Was that the right call?

Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works

Fourth downs
COLO made the numbers' call on 4 of 6STAN made the numbers' call on 5 of 5
  1. Q1 13:28STAN 4th & 10 at STAN 40, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 19.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    19.8%−0.1
    29% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    19.9%
    average punt
  2. Q1 6:49STAN 4th & 11 at STAN 47, down 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 19.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    19.4%−0.2
    26% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    19.6%
    average punt
  3. Q2 4:44STAN 4th & 8 at COLO 36, down 22
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 7.1% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    7.0%
    34% to convert
    Field goal
    7.0%−<0.1
    42% to make
    Punt
    7.0%−0.1
    average punt
  4. Q2 2:02STAN 4th & 3 at STAN 16, down 29
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 2.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    2.1%−<0.1
    52% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    2.2%
    average punt
  5. Q2 0:49COLO 4th & 10 at STAN 28, up 29
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 98.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    98.2%−0.2
    29% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    98.3%
    60% to make
    Punt
    97.7%−0.7
    average punt
  6. Q3 12:09COLO 4th & 2 at STAN 45, up 29
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 98.8% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    98.8%
    57% to convert
    Field goal
    98.6%−0.3
    25% to make
    Punt
    98.7%−0.1
    average punt
  7. Q3 6:33COLO 4th & 13 at COLO 40, up 23
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 96.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    96.2%−0.4
    20% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    96.6%
    average punt
  8. Q3 5:06COLO 4th & 1 at COLO 34, up 17
    Close callPunted · 93.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    94.6%
    71% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    93.9%−0.7
    average punt
  9. Q3 1:24COLO 4th & 4 at STAN 46, up 10
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 86.1% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    86.6%
    48% to convert
    Field goal
    85.0%−1.6
    23% to make
    Punt
    86.0%−0.6
    average punt
  10. Q4 2:55COLO 4th & 8 at STAN 46, up 3
    Close callPunted · 83.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    82.9%
    34% to convert
    Field goal
    79.5%−3.4
    23% to make
    PuntTheir call
    82.0%−0.9
    average punt
  11. Q4 0:00STAN 4th & 9 at COLO 28, down 3
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 21.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    15.7%−13.0
    31% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    28.7%
    60% to make
    Punt
    7.9%−20.8
    average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
COLO made the numbers' call on 3 of 5STAN made the numbers' call on 2 of 5
  1. Q1 10:25COLO Touchdown, up 6 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    80.1%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    80.1%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  2. Q1 3:36COLO Touchdown, up 13 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    83.5%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    83.5%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  3. Q2 8:42COLO Touchdown, up 20 before the try
    Close callWent for two · converted
    Kick
    92.9%
    97% to make
    Go for twoTheir call
    92.8%−0.1
    45% to convert
  4. Q2 2:57COLO Touchdown, up 28 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    98.8%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    98.7%−0.1
    45% to convert
  5. Q3 9:01STAN Touchdown, down 23 before the try
    Close callWent for two · failed
    Kick
    4.0%
    97% to make
    Go for twoTheir call
    4.0%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  6. Q3 6:18STAN Touchdown, down 17 before the try
    Close callWent for two · failed
    Kick
    6.9%
    97% to make
    Go for twoTheir call
    6.9%−0.1
    45% to convert
  7. Q3 4:45STAN Touchdown, down 11 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    13.0%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    13.0%−0.1
    45% to convert
  8. Q4 12:29STAN Touchdown, down 4 before the try
    Close callKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    27.3%−<0.1
    97% to make
    Go for two
    27.3%
    45% to convert
  9. Q4 11:18COLO Touchdown, up 9 before the try
    Close callKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    89.7%−0.1
    97% to make
    Go for two
    89.7%
    45% to convert
  10. Q4 5:06STAN Touchdown, down 4 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    21.9%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    19.8%−2.1
    45% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chart
STANDrive 1PUNT
7 plays · 15 yds · 1:3222% → 22%
Q1 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+5
77.9%
Bryce Farrell run for 5 yds to the STAN 30Similar
Q1 14:30
2ND & 5
OWN 30
+10
77.8%
Justin Lamson run for 10 yds to the STAN 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 13:55
1ST & 10
OWN 40
0
77.6%
Justin Lamson pass incomplete to Elic AyomanorSimilar
Q1 13:51
2ND & 10
OWN 40
0
77.6%
Justin Lamson pass incomplete to Tiger BachmeierSimilar
Q1 13:45
3RD & 10
OWN 40
0
77.6%
Justin Lamson pass incomplete to Mudia ReubenSimilar
Q1 13:28
4TH & 10
OWN 40
+6
77.6%
Connor Weselman punt for 43 yds , Jimmy Horn Jr. returns for 6 yds to the COLO 23Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
COLODrive 2TD
9 plays · 77 yds · 3:0378% → 78%
Q1 13:28
1ST & 10
OWN 23
-5
77.6%
Colorado Penalty, False Start (Alton McCaskill) to the COLO 18Similar
Q1 13:28
1ST & 15
OWN 18
0
77.6%
Shedeur Sanders pass incomplete to Travis HunterSimilar
Q1 13:22
2ND & 15
OWN 18
+4
77.5%
Alton McCaskill run for 4 yds to the COLO 22Similar
Q1 12:52
3RD & 11
OWN 22
+12
77.3%
Shedeur Sanders pass complete to Travis Hunter for 12 yds to the COLO 34 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 12:28
1ST & 10
OWN 34
+38
77.4%
Shedeur Sanders run for 38 yds to the STAN 28 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 11:54
1ST & 10
OPP 28
+6
77.6%
Alton McCaskill run for 6 yds to the STAN 22Similar
Q1 11:27
2ND & 4
OPP 22
+7
77.5%
Shedeur Sanders pass complete to Jimmy Horn Jr. for 7 yds to the STAN 15 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 10:58
1ST & 10
OPP 15
+6
77.4%
Shedeur Sanders run for 6 yds to the STAN 9Similar
Q1 10:25
2ND & 4
OPP 9
+9
78.4%
Shedeur Sanders pass complete to Xavier Weaver for 9 yds for a TD (Alejandro Mata KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
STANDrive 3PUNT
9 plays · 22 yds · 3:3622% → 22%
Q1 10:25
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+12
77.9%
Bryce Farrell run for 12 yds to the STAN 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 9:49
1ST & 10
OWN 37
+6
77.8%
Benjamin Yurosek run for 6 yds to the STAN 43Similar
Q1 9:16
2ND & 4
OWN 43
+3
77.7%
Justin Lamson pass complete to Bryce Farrell for 3 yds to the STAN 46Similar
Q1 8:31
3RD & 1
OWN 46
+2
77.7%
Justin Lamson run for 2 yds to the STAN 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 7:56
1ST & 10
OWN 48
-1
77.6%
Justin Lamson run for a loss of 1 yard to the STAN 47 Justin Lamson fumbled, recovered by STAN Trevor MayberrySimilar
Q1 7:18
2ND & 11
OWN 47
0
77.8%
E.J. Smith run for no gain to the STAN 47Similar
Q1 7:04
3RD & 11
OWN 47
0
78.0%
Ashton Daniels pass incomplete to Elic AyomanorSimilar
Q1 6:49
4TH & 11
OWN 47
0
78.3%
Aidan Flintoft punt for 38 yds, fair catch by Xavier Weaver at the COLO 15Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
COLODrive 4TD
10 plays · 85 yds · 3:1378% → 82%
Q1 6:49
1ST & 10
OWN 15
+18
78.1%
Shedeur Sanders pass complete to Alton McCaskill for 18 yds to the COLO 33 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 6:27
1ST & 10
OWN 33
+1
78.2%
Shedeur Sanders run for 1 yd to the COLO 34Similar
Q1 6:08
2ND & 9
OWN 34
+18
78.2%
Shedeur Sanders pass complete to Jimmy Horn Jr. for 18 yds to the STAN 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 5:45
1ST & 10
OPP 48
+14
78.8%
Shedeur Sanders pass complete to Jimmy Horn Jr. for 14 yds to the STAN 34 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 5:20
1ST & 10
OPP 34
+6
78.9%
Shedeur Sanders run for 6 yds to the STAN 28Similar
Q1 4:34
2ND & 4
OPP 28
+4
78.9%
Alton McCaskill run for 4 yds to the STAN 24 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 4:01
1ST & 10
OPP 24
0
79.0%
Shedeur Sanders pass incomplete to Xavier WeaverSimilar
Q1 3:53
2ND & 10
OPP 24
0
79.0%
Shedeur Sanders pass incomplete to Omarion MillerSimilar
Q1 3:36
3RD & 10
OPP 24
+24
82.1%
Shedeur Sanders pass complete to Travis Hunter for 24 yds for a TD (Alejandro Mata KICK)Similar
Q1 3:36
3RD & 10
OWN 35
-15
81.6%
Colorado Penalty, Unsportsmanlike Conduct (-15 Yards) to the COLO 20Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
STANDrive 5MISSED FG
18 plays · 56 yds · 7:0619% → 18%
Q1 3:36
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+6
81.1%
Ashton Daniels run for 6 yds to the STAN 31Similar
Q1 2:52
2ND & 4
OWN 31
0
81.1%
Ashton Daniels pass incomplete to Bryce FarrellSimilar
Q1 2:47
3RD & 4
OWN 31
+5
81.2%
Ashton Daniels pass complete to Mudia Reuben for 5 yds to the STAN 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 2:16
1ST & 10
OWN 36
+5
80.9%
Daniels, Ashton pass incomplete to Yurosek, Benjamin, PENALTY COLORADO substitution infraction 5 yards to the STANFORD41, NO PLAY.Similar
Q1 2:11
1ST & 5
OWN 41
-4
80.6%
Ashton Daniels sacked by Khairi Manns for a loss of 4 yards to the STAN 37Similar
Q1 1:52
2ND & 9
OWN 37
+10
81.0%
Ashton Daniels pass complete to Tiger Bachmeier for 10 yds to the STAN 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 1:12
1ST & 10
OWN 47
+4
80.8%
Ashton Daniels pass complete to Bryce Farrell for 4 yds to the COLO 49Similar
Q1 0:35
2ND & 6
OPP 49
+5
80.8%
Benjamin Yurosek run for 5 yds to the COLO 44Similar
Q2 15:00
3RD & 1
OPP 44
+10
80.7%
Justin Lamson run for 10 yds to the COLO 34 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 14:28
1ST & 10
OPP 34
0
80.5%
Ashton Daniels pass incomplete to Bryce FarrellSimilar
Q2 14:24
2ND & 10
OPP 34
+4
80.5%
Ashton Daniels run for 4 yds to the COLO 30Similar
Q2 13:38
3RD & 6
OPP 30
+21
81.3%
Ashton Daniels pass complete to Benjamin Yurosek for 12 yds to the COLO 18 for a 1ST down Colorado Penalty, Illegal Use of Hands (Jordan Domineck) to the COLO 9 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 13:15
1ST & 0
OPP 9
-5
80.4%
Stanford Penalty, Substitution Infraction (-5 Yards) to the COLO 14Similar
Q2 13:01
1ST & GOAL
OPP 14
-2
80.9%
Mudia Reuben run for a loss of 2 yards to the COLO 16Similar
Q2 12:20
2ND & 0
OPP 16
0
80.5%
Ashton Daniels pass incomplete to Mudia ReubenSimilar
Q2 12:15
3RD & 0
OPP 16
-3
81.0%
Ashton Daniels sacked by Jordan Domineck for a loss of 3 yards to the COLO 19Similar
Q2 11:30
4TH & 0
OPP 19
+37
81.8%
Joshua Karty 37 yd FG MISSEDSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
COLODrive 6TD
7 plays · 80 yds · 2:4884% → 92%
Q2 11:30
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+15
83.7%
Shedeur Sanders run for 15 yds to the COLO 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 11:07
1ST & 10
OWN 35
+4
83.9%
Shedeur Sanders run for 4 yds to the COLO 39Similar
Q2 10:39
2ND & 6
OWN 39
+4
84.5%
Anthony Hankerson run for 4 yds to the COLO 43Similar
Q2 10:07
3RD & 2
OWN 43
+5
84.3%
Shedeur Sanders pass complete to Travis Hunter for 5 yds to the COLO 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 9:45
1ST & 10
OWN 48
+5
84.8%
Shedeur Sanders pass complete to Xavier Weaver for 5 yds to the STAN 47Similar
Q2 9:07
2ND & 5
OPP 47
+8
85.0%
Shedeur Sanders pass complete to Travis Hunter for 8 yds to the STAN 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 8:42
1ST & 10
OPP 39
+39
92.3%
Shedeur Sanders pass complete to Xavier Weaver for 39 yds for a TD (C. Fauria Run For Two-point Conversion)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
STANDrive 7DOWNS
11 plays · 30 yds · 3:529% → 8%
Q2 8:36
1ST & 10
OWN 36
0
90.6%
Ashton Daniels pass incomplete to Benjamin YurosekSimilar
Q2 8:32
2ND & 10
OWN 36
+11
90.8%
Ashton Daniels run for 11 yds to the STAN 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 8:09
1ST & 10
OWN 47
+5
90.3%
Daniels, Ashton pass complete to Yurosek, Benjamin for 4 yards to the COLORADO49, PENALTY COLORADO offside 5 yards to the COLORADO48, NO PLAY.Similar
Q2 7:51
1ST & 5
OPP 48
+2
89.9%
E.J. Smith run for 2 yds to the COLO 46Similar
Q2 7:07
2ND & 3
OPP 46
+2
90.7%
Justin Lamson run for 2 yds to the COLO 44Similar
Q2 6:23
3RD & 1
OPP 44
+6
91.0%
Justin Lamson run for 6 yds to the COLO 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 5:46
1ST & 10
OPP 38
0
91.7%
Ashton Daniels pass incomplete to Bryce FarrellSimilar
Q2 5:40
2ND & 10
OPP 38
+2
91.8%
Ashton Daniels run for 2 yds to the COLO 36Similar
Q2 4:59
3RD & 8
OPP 36
0
92.0%
Ashton Daniels pass incomplete to Bryce FarrellSimilar
Q2 4:44
4TH & 8
OPP 36
+2
92.3%
Ashton Daniels run for 2 yds to the COLO 34Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
COLODrive 8TD
5 plays · 66 yds · 1:4793% → 98%
Q2 4:44
1ST & 10
OWN 34
-5
93.3%
Shedeur Sanders sacked by Spencer Jorgensen for a loss of 5 yards to the COLO 29Similar
Q2 4:12
2ND & 15
OWN 29
+21
93.4%
Shedeur Sanders pass complete to Travis Hunter for 21 yds to the 50 yard line for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 3:47
1ST & 10
50
+11
93.9%
Dylan Edwards run for 11 yds to the STAN 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 3:21
1ST & 10
OPP 39
+25
94.1%
Shedeur Sanders pass complete to Jimmy Horn Jr. for 10 yds to the STAN 29 for a 1ST down Stanford Penalty, Illegal Use of Hands (Gaethan Bernadel) to the STAN 14 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 2:57
1ST & 10
OPP 14
+14
97.5%
Xavier Weaver run for 14 yds for a TD (Alejandro Mata KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
STANDrive 9PUNT
5 plays · 7 yds · 0:543% → 2%
Q2 2:56
1ST & 10
OWN 9
+6
97.4%
Ashton Daniels run for 6 yds to the STAN 15Similar
Q2 2:23
2ND & 4
OWN 15
0
97.4%
Ashton Daniels pass incomplete to Bryce FarrellSimilar
Q2 2:16
3RD & 4
OWN 15
+1
97.5%
Ashton Daniels pass complete to E.J. Smith for 1 yd to the STAN 16Similar
Q2 2:02
4TH & 3
OWN 16
0
97.6%
Connor Weselman punt for 23 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the STAN 39Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
COLODrive 10MISSED FG
10 plays · 11 yds · 1:1398% → 98%
Q2 2:02
1ST & 10
OPP 39
+7
98.1%
Shedeur Sanders run for 7 yds to the STAN 32Similar
Q2 1:38
2ND & 3
OPP 32
+4
98.1%
Dylan Edwards run for 4 yds to the STAN 28 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 1:23
1ST & 10
OPP 28
-10
98.3%
Sanders, Shedeur rush for no gain to the STANFORD28, PENALTY COLORADO holding (Harden, Kareem) 10 yards to the STANFORD38, NO PLAY.Similar
Q2 1:13
1ST & 20
OPP 38
-5
98.3%
Colorado Penalty, False Start (Kareem Harden) to the STAN 43Similar
Q2 1:13
1ST & 25
OPP 43
0
98.3%
Shedeur Sanders pass incomplete to Jimmy Horn Jr.Similar
Q2 1:10
2ND & 25
OPP 43
+4
98.3%
Dylan Edwards run for 4 yds to the STAN 39Similar
Q2 1:05
3RD & 21
OPP 39
+11
97.9%
Shedeur Sanders pass complete to Jimmy Horn Jr. for 11 yds to the STAN 28Similar
Q2 0:49
4TH & 10
OPP 28
+46
97.9%
Alejandro Mata 46 yd FG MISSEDSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
STANDrive 11END OF HALF
3 plays · -1 yds · 0:292% → 2%
Q2 0:49
1ST & 10
OWN 28
-5
98.0%
Ashton Daniels sacked by Taijh Alston for a loss of 5 yards to the STAN 23Similar
Q2 0:27
2ND & 15
OWN 23
0
98.1%
Ashton Daniels pass incomplete to Tiger BachmeierSimilar
Q2 0:20
3RD & 15
OWN 23
+4
98.2%
Ashton Daniels run for 4 yds to the STAN 27Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
COLODrive 12DOWNS
10 plays · 18 yds · 2:5198% → 99%
Q3 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+9
98.4%
Shedeur Sanders pass complete to Travis Hunter for 9 yds to the COLO 34Similar
Q3 14:33
2ND & 1
OWN 34
+2
98.4%
Alton McCaskill run for 2 yds to the COLO 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 14:05
1ST & 10
OWN 36
+4
98.6%
Shedeur Sanders pass complete to Javon Antonio for 4 yds to the COLO 40Similar
Q3 13:46
2ND & 6
OWN 40
+4
98.6%
Alton McCaskill run for 4 yds to the COLO 44Similar
Q3 13:29
3RD & 2
OWN 44
+3
98.5%
Alton McCaskill run for 3 yds to the COLO 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 12:57
1ST & 10
OWN 47
0
98.8%
Shedeur Sanders pass incomplete to Xavier WeaverSimilar
Q3 12:52
2ND & 10
OWN 47
0
98.8%
Shedeur Sanders pass incomplete to Alton McCaskillSimilar
Q3 12:48
3RD & 10
OWN 47
+8
98.8%
Shedeur Sanders pass complete to Xavier Weaver for 8 yds to the STAN 45Similar
Q3 12:09
4TH & 2
OPP 45
-12
98.7%
Shedeur Sanders sacked by Lance Keneley for a loss of 12 yards to the COLO 43Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
STANDrive 13TD
9 plays · 43 yds · 3:081% → 4%
Q3 12:09
1ST & 10
OPP 43
0
98.8%
Benjamin Yurosek run for no gain to the COLO 43Similar
Q3 11:40
2ND & 10
OPP 43
+10
98.9%
Daniels, Ashton pass incomplete to Bachmeier, Tiger, PENALTY COLORADO holding (Cooper, Omarion) 10 yards to the COLORADO33, NO PLAY, 1ST DOWN STANFORD.Similar
Q3 11:35
1ST & 10
OPP 33
+6
98.8%
E.J. Smith run for 6 yds to the COLO 27Similar
Q3 11:00
2ND & 4
OPP 27
0
98.8%
Ashton Daniels pass incomplete to Sam RoushSimilar
Q3 10:54
3RD & 4
OPP 27
+18
98.9%
Ashton Daniels pass complete to Elic Ayomanor for 18 yds to the COLO 9 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 10:16
1ST & GOAL
OPP 9
+5
99.1%
E.J. Smith run for 5 yds to the COLO 4Similar
Q3 9:57
2ND & GOAL
OPP 4
0
99.0%
E.J. Smith run for no gain to the COLO 4Similar
Q3 9:15
3RD & 0
OPP 4
+2
99.0%
Daniels, Ashton pass incomplete to Yurosek, Benjamin, PENALTY COLORADO substitution infraction 2 yards to the COLORADO2, NO PLAY.Similar
Q3 9:01
3RD & GOAL
OPP 2
+2
95.9%
Bryce Farrell run for 2 yds for a TD (Two-Point Conversion failed)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
COLODrive 14PUNT
8 plays · 15 yds · 2:2896% → 96%
Q3 9:01
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+4
96.0%
Anthony Hankerson run for 4 yds to the COLO 29Similar
Q3 8:39
2ND & 6
OWN 29
+14
96.1%
Shedeur Sanders pass complete to Javon Antonio for 14 yds to the COLO 43 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 8:19
1ST & 10
OWN 43
+6
96.1%
Shedeur Sanders pass complete to Dylan Edwards for 6 yds to the COLO 49Similar
Q3 7:55
2ND & 4
OWN 49
+1
96.3%
Shedeur Sanders pass complete to Dylan Edwards for 1 yd to the 50 yard lineSimilar
Q3 7:22
3RD & 3
50
-10
96.3%
Hankerson, Anthony rush for 18 yards to the STANFORD32, PENALTY COLORADO holding (Bailey, Jack) 10 yards to the COLORADO40, NO PLAY.Similar
Q3 6:58
3RD & 13
OWN 40
0
96.3%
Shedeur Sanders pass incomplete to Travis HunterSimilar
Q3 6:33
4TH & 13
OWN 40
0
96.3%
Mark Vassett punt for 57 yds, downed at the STAN 3Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
STANDrive 15TD
1 play · 97 yds · 0:007% → 7%
Q3 6:18
1ST & 10
OWN 3
+97
93.0%
Ashton Daniels pass complete to Elic Ayomanor for 97 yds for a TD (Two-Point Conversion failed)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
COLODrive 16PUNT
5 plays · 9 yds · 1:1294% → 94%
Q3 6:18
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+6
93.7%
Shedeur Sanders pass complete to Xavier Weaver for 6 yds to the COLO 31Similar
Q3 6:01
2ND & 4
OWN 31
0
93.9%
Shedeur Sanders pass incomplete to Travis HunterSimilar
Q3 5:55
3RD & 4
OWN 31
+3
93.8%
Shedeur Sanders pass complete to Travis Hunter for 3 yds to the COLO 34Similar
Q3 5:06
4TH & 1
OWN 34
0
93.6%
Mark Vassett punt for 26 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the STAN 40Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
STANDrive 17TD
2 plays · 60 yds · 0:218% → 16%
Q3 5:06
1ST & 10
OWN 40
0
92.5%
Ashton Daniels pass incomplete to Elic AyomanorSimilar
Q3 4:45
2ND & 10
OWN 40
+60
83.6%
Ashton Daniels pass complete to Elic Ayomanor for 60 yds for a TD (Joshua Karty KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
COLODrive 18DOWNS
10 plays · 8 yds · 3:2185% → 86%
Q3 4:45
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+1
85.2%
Anthony Hankerson run for 1 yd to the COLO 26Similar
Q3 4:19
2ND & 9
OWN 26
+9
85.1%
Shedeur Sanders pass complete to Xavier Weaver for 9 yds to the COLO 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 3:53
1ST & 10
OWN 35
-11
85.5%
Shedeur Sanders sacked by Collin Wright for a loss of 11 yards to the COLO 24Similar
Q3 3:20
2ND & 21
OWN 24
+12
85.0%
Shedeur Sanders pass complete to Javon Antonio for 12 yds to the COLO 36Similar
Q3 2:55
3RD & 9
OWN 36
+12
85.0%
Shedeur Sanders pass complete to Travis Hunter for 12 yds to the COLO 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 2:43
1ST & 10
OWN 48
+1
86.7%
Anthony Hankerson run for 1 yd to the COLO 49Similar
Q3 2:14
2ND & 9
OWN 49
0
86.7%
Shedeur Sanders pass incomplete to Travis HunterSimilar
Q3 2:06
3RD & 9
OWN 49
+5
86.1%
Shedeur Sanders pass complete to Travis Hunter for 5 yds to the STAN 46Similar
Q3 1:24
4TH & 4
OPP 46
-21
85.6%
Shedeur Sanders sacked by Mitch Leigber for a loss of 21 yards to the STAN 33 Colorado Penalty, Intentional Grounding (Shedeur Sanders) to the COLO 33Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
STANDrive 19TD
10 plays · 33 yds · 3:5518% → 36%
Q3 1:24
1ST & 10
OPP 33
+4
81.7%
Ashton Daniels pass complete to E.J. Smith for 4 yds to the COLO 29Similar
Q3 0:52
2ND & 6
OPP 29
+10
81.4%
Ashton Daniels pass complete to Elic Ayomanor for 10 yds to the COLO 19 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 0:27
1ST & 10
OPP 19
+3
82.7%
E.J. Smith run for 3 yds to the COLO 16Similar
Q4 15:00
2ND & 7
OPP 16
0
82.7%
Ashton Daniels pass incomplete to Bryce FarrellSimilar
Q4 14:53
3RD & 7
OPP 16
-15
84.0%
Daniels, Ashton pass incomplete to Ayomanor, Elic, PENALTY STANFORD illegal block (Filkins, Casey) 15 yards to the COLORADO31, NO PLAY.Similar
Q4 14:48
3RD & 22
OPP 31
+13
85.8%
Ashton Daniels run for no gain to the COLO 31 for a 1ST down Colorado Penalty, Unnecessary Roughness (Travis Hunter) to the COLO 18 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 14:27
1ST & 10
OPP 18
+2
82.8%
Bryce Farrell run for 2 yds to the COLO 16Similar
Q4 13:44
2ND & 8
OPP 16
+15
82.9%
Ashton Daniels pass complete to Tiger Bachmeier for 15 yds to the COLO 1 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 13:00
1ST & 0
OPP 1
0
81.7%
Daniels, Ashton rush for no gain to the COLORADO1, PENALTY COLORADO substitution infraction 0 yards to the COLORADO1, NO PLAY.Similar
Q4 12:29
1ST & GOAL
OPP 1
+1
64.5%
Justin Lamson 1 Yd Run (Joshua Karty Kick)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
COLODrive 20TD
6 plays · 75 yds · 1:3274% → 88%
Q4 12:50
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+11
74.0%
Shedeur Sanders pass complete to Travis Hunter for 11 yds to the COLO 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 12:21
1ST & 10
OWN 36
+48
75.0%
Shedeur Sanders pass complete to Xavier Weaver for 48 yds to the STAN 16 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 11:56
1ST & 10
OPP 16
0
78.2%
Dylan Edwards run for no gain to the STAN 16Similar
Q4 11:18
2ND & 10
OPP 16
+16
89.3%
Shedeur Sanders pass complete to Travis Hunter for 16 yds for a TD (Alejandro Mata KICK)Similar
Q4 11:18
2ND & 10
OWN 35
+15
88.0%
Stanford Penalty, Personal Foul (15 Yards) to the 50 yard lineSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
STANDrive 21TD
15 plays · 80 yds · 6:1213% → 37%
Q4 11:18
1ST & 10
OWN 20
-1
87.5%
Ashton Daniels pass complete to E.J. Smith for a loss of 1 yard to the STAN 19Similar
Q4 10:40
2ND & 11
OWN 19
+11
87.9%
Ashton Daniels pass complete to Elic Ayomanor for 11 yds to the STAN 30 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 10:13
1ST & 10
OWN 30
+13
88.6%
Ashton Daniels pass complete to Elic Ayomanor for 13 yds to the STAN 43 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 9:42
1ST & 10
OWN 43
0
88.3%
Ashton Daniels pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 9:34
2ND & 10
OWN 43
+12
88.8%
Casey Filkins run for 12 yds to the COLO 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 8:59
1ST & 10
OPP 45
0
87.5%
Ashton Daniels pass incomplete to Casey FilkinsSimilar
Q4 8:51
2ND & 10
OPP 45
+5
87.7%
Ashton Daniels pass complete to Elic Ayomanor for 15 yds to the COLO 30 Stanford Penalty, Offensive Holding (Tiger Bachmeier) to the COLO 40Similar
Q4 8:24
2ND & 5
OPP 40
+12
87.2%
Ashton Daniels pass complete to Elic Ayomanor for 12 yds to the COLO 28 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 7:49
1ST & 10
OPP 28
+5
86.4%
Ashton Daniels pass complete to Elic Ayomanor for 5 yds to the COLO 23Similar
Q4 7:15
2ND & 5
OPP 23
+13
87.7%
Ashton Daniels pass complete to Tiger Bachmeier for 13 yds to the COLO 10 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 6:39
1ST & GOAL
OPP 10
-3
88.4%
Casey Filkins run for a loss of 3 yards to the COLO 13Similar
Q4 6:03
2ND & GOAL
OPP 13
+7
89.5%
Ashton Daniels pass complete to Elic Ayomanor for 7 yds to the COLO 6Similar
Q4 5:16
3RD & 0
OPP 6
+3
88.5%
Daniels, Ashton pass incomplete to Ayomanor, Elic, PENALTY COLORADO substitution infraction 3 yards to the COLORADO3, NO PLAY.Similar
Q4 5:06
3RD & GOAL
OPP 3
+3
63.3%
Ashton Daniels pass complete to Bryce Farrell for 3 yds for a TD (Joshua Karty KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
COLODrive 22PUNT
11 plays · 29 yds · 2:1175% → 86%
Q4 5:06
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+17
75.4%
Shedeur Sanders pass complete to Dylan Edwards for 17 yds to the COLO 42 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 4:41
1ST & 10
OWN 42
+7
79.1%
Dylan Edwards run for 7 yds to the COLO 49Similar
Q4 4:01
2ND & 3
OWN 49
+3
83.0%
Dylan Edwards run for 3 yds to the STAN 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 3:19
1ST & 10
OPP 48
+4
84.3%
Dylan Edwards run for 4 yds to the STAN 44Similar
Q4 3:14
2ND & 6
OPP 44
+3
86.1%
Shedeur Sanders run for 3 yds to the STAN 41Similar
Q4 3:08
3RD & 3
OPP 41
0
87.3%
Shedeur Sanders pass incomplete to Travis HunterSimilar
Q4 3:03
4TH & 3
OPP 41
-5
86.0%
Colorado Penalty, Delay of Game (-5 Yards) to the STAN 46Similar
Q4 2:55
4TH & 8
OPP 46
0
86.3%
Mark Vassett punt for 45 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the STAN 1Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
STANDrive 23END OF GAME
15 plays · 71 yds · 2:5520% → 52%
Q4 2:55
1ST & 10
OWN 1
+9
80.2%
Ashton Daniels pass complete to Elic Ayomanor for 9 yds to the STAN 10Similar
Q4 2:30
2ND & 1
OWN 10
+3
80.4%
Ashton Daniels run for 3 yds to the STAN 13 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 2:02
1ST & 10
OWN 13
0
81.2%
Ashton Daniels pass incomplete to Tiger BachmeierSimilar
Q4 1:55
2ND & 10
OWN 13
+15
80.9%
Daniels, Ashton pass incomplete to Bachmeier, Tiger, PENALTY COLORADO pass interference (Stoutmire, Carter) 15 yards to the STANFORD28, NO PLAY, 1ST DOWN STANFORD.Similar
Q4 1:50
1ST & 10
OWN 28
+15
79.6%
Ashton Daniels pass complete to Sam Roush for 15 yds to the STAN 43 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 1:24
1ST & 10
OWN 43
+5
78.0%
Ashton Daniels pass complete to Mudia Reuben for 5 yds to the STAN 48Similar
Q4 0:52
2ND & 5
OWN 48
0
78.0%
Ashton Daniels pass complete to Lukas Ungar for no gain to the STAN 48Similar
Q4 0:44
3RD & 5
OWN 48
+7
79.9%
Ashton Daniels pass complete to Elic Ayomanor for 7 yds to the COLO 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 0:35
1ST & 10
OPP 45
0
77.3%
Ashton Daniels pass incomplete to Elic AyomanorSimilar
Q4 0:30
2ND & 10
OPP 45
+16
77.9%
Ashton Daniels pass complete to Bryce Farrell for 16 yds to the COLO 29 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 0:19
1ST & 10
OPP 29
0
72.1%
Ashton Daniels pass incomplete to Casey FilkinsSimilar
Q4 0:15
2ND & 10
OPP 29
0
72.1%
Ashton Daniels pass incomplete to Elic AyomanorSimilar
Q4 0:09
3RD & 10
OPP 29
+1
76.8%
Ashton Daniels run for 1 yd to the COLO 28Similar
Q4 0:00
4TH & 9
OPP 28
+46
47.7%
Joshua Karty 46 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
COLODrive 24TD
5 plays · 25 yds · 0:0066% → 79%
OT 0:00
1ST & 10
OPP 25
+9
65.6%
Shedeur Sanders pass complete to Travis Hunter for 9 yds to the STAN 16Similar
OT 0:00
2ND & 1
OPP 16
+7
65.6%
Anthony Hankerson run for 7 yds to the STAN 9 for a 1ST downSimilar
OT 0:00
1ST & GOAL
OPP 9
0
65.6%
Shedeur Sanders pass incomplete to Travis HunterSimilar
OT 0:00
2ND & GOAL
OPP 9
+5
65.6%
Shedeur Sanders pass complete to Travis Hunter for 5 yds to the STAN 4Similar
OT 0:00
3RD & GOAL
OPP 4
+4
79.3%
Shedeur Sanders pass complete to Javon Antonio for 4 yds for a TD (Alejandro Mata KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
STANDrive 25TD
2 plays · 25 yds · 0:0020% → 57%
OT 0:00
1ST & 10
OPP 25
-5
80.1%
Stanford Penalty, False Start (Connor McLaughlin) to the COLO 30Similar
OT 0:00
1ST & 15
OPP 30
+30
42.6%
Ashton Daniels pass complete to Elic Ayomanor for 30 yds for a TD (Joshua Karty KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
COLODrive 26INT
8 plays · 23 yds · 0:0066% → 63%
OT2 0:00
1ST & 10
OPP 25
+8
65.6%
Anthony Hankerson run for 8 yds to the STAN 17Similar
OT2 0:00
2ND & 2
OPP 17
+6
65.6%
Shedeur Sanders run for 6 yds to the STAN 11 for a 1ST downSimilar
OT2 0:00
1ST & 10
OPP 11
0
65.6%
Shedeur Sanders pass incomplete to Xavier WeaverSimilar
OT2 0:00
2ND & 10
OPP 11
0
65.6%
Shedeur Sanders pass incomplete to Michael HarrisonSimilar
OT2 0:00
3RD & 10
OPP 11
+9
63.1%
Sanders, Shedeur pass incomplete to Hunter, Travis, PENALTY STANFORD pass interference (Frausto-Ramos, Jshawn) 9 yards to the STANFORD2, NO PLAY, 1ST DOWN COLORADO.Similar
OT2 0:00
1ST & GOAL
OPP 2
+1
65.6%
Anthony Hankerson run for 1 yd to the STAN 1Similar
OT2 0:00
2ND & GOAL
OPP 1
-1
65.6%
Anthony Hankerson run for a loss of 1 yard to the STAN 2Similar
OT2 0:00
3RD & GOAL
OPP 2
0
63.2%
Shedeur Sanders pass intercepted, touchback. Alaka'i Gilman return for no gainSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
STANDrive 27FG
4 plays · 12 yds · 0:0059% → 88%
OT2 0:00
1ST & 10
OPP 25
+5
41.1%
Ashton Daniels run for 5 yds to the COLO 20Similar
OT2 0:00
2ND & 5
OPP 20
+4
41.1%
Ashton Daniels run for 4 yds to the COLO 16Similar
OT2 0:00
3RD & 1
OPP 16
+3
43.2%
Ashton Daniels run for 3 yds to the COLO 13 for a 1ST downSimilar
OT2 0:00
1ST & 10
OPP 13
+31
12.2%
Joshua Karty 31 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
FG · Q4 0:00
Joshua Karty 46 yd FG GOOD
-37.9
TD · OT 0:00
Ashton Daniels pass complete to Elic Ayomanor for 30 yds for a TD (Joshua Karty KICK)
-37.5
FG · OT2 0:00
Joshua Karty 31 yd FG GOOD
-31
YardLine · model v10Model estimate - not betting advice · Data provided by CollegeFootballData.com