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ORST

Oregon State 52 at California 40

CAL
2023 · Week 6 · Oct 7, 2023 · California Memorial Stadium
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Win probability · CAL
modelCAL aheadORST aheadconfidence bandkey playCAL scoreORST score
0%25%50%75%100%Q1Q2Q3Q4TDFGFGTDTDTDTDTDTDTDTDTDTDTDTDTDTDFGTDEnd of Game
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q4 11:37 · DJ Uiagalelei run for 3 yds to the ORST 37 for a 1ST down
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Home team on offensePregame priorScore differentialGarbage-time factorScore diff ÷ offense timeoutsScore diff ÷ seconds remaining
+52.0+26.00−26.0−52.0Q1Q2Q3Q4Play 150Home team on offense−35.9Pregame prior−4.8Score differential−17.8Garbage-time factor−13.9Score diff ÷ offense timeouts−4.4Score diff ÷ seconds remaining−5.0
This game in five plays
  1. TD · Q2 2:00: DJ Uiagalelei pass complete to Jack Velling for 3 yds for a TD (Atticus Sappington KICK) — ORST win probability +14.3 pts (now 69%) (top driver: ORST has the ball).
  2. TD · Q3 9:53: Isaiah Ifanse run for 5 yds for a TD (Mateen Bhaghani KICK) — CAL win probability +15.5 pts (now 41%) (top driver: Not a blowout margin).
  3. TD · Q3 5:40: DJ Uiagalelei pass complete to Jack Velling for 7 yds for a TD (Atticus Sappington KICK) — ORST win probability +11.5 pts (now 83%) (top driver: ORST has the ball).
  4. TD · Q3 2:45: Jack Endries 30 Yd pass from Fernando Mendoza (Fernando Mendoza Pass to Jeremiah Hunter for Two-Point Conversion) — CAL win probability +21.4 pts (now 40%) (top driver: CAL down 3 timeouts).
  5. TD · Q4 14:25: Damien Martinez run for 1 yd for a TD (Atticus Sappington KICK) — ORST win probability +12.7 pts (now 81%) (top driver: ORST has the ball).
Was that the right call?

Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works

Fourth downs
CAL made the numbers' call on 2 of 4ORST made the numbers' call on 7 of 7
  1. Q1 12:56CAL 4th & 2 at ORST 47, tied
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 31.8% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    31.8%
    57% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    Punt
    31.8%−0.1
    average punt
  2. Q1 5:39CAL 4th & 8 at ORST 38, down 7
    Close callPunted · 31.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    31.9%
    35% to convert
    Field goal
    31.8%−0.1
    38% to make
    PuntTheir call
    31.8%−0.1
    average punt
  3. Q1 3:40ORST 4th & 4 at ORST 15, up 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 67.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    67.8%−0.1
    47% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    68.0%
    average punt
  4. Q2 14:58CAL 4th & 3 at ORST 3, down 7
    Close callKicked a field goal · 32.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    33.0%
    44% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    32.2%−0.7
    93% to make
    Punt
    28.1%−4.9
    average punt
  5. Q2 8:04ORST 4th & 1 at CAL 10, down 3
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 58.4% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    58.4%
    71% to convert
    Field goal
    56.2%−2.2
    88% to make
    Punt
    50.5%−7.9
    average punt
  6. Q2 2:00ORST 4th & 3 at CAL 3, down 3
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 55.7% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    55.2%
    44% to convert
    Field goal
    53.9%−1.4
    93% to make
    Punt
    47.2%−8.0
    average punt
  7. Q2 0:08CAL 4th & 1 at CAL 34, down 4
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 35.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    35.3%−0.4
    71% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    35.7%
    average punt
  8. Q4 14:25ORST 4th & 1 at CAL 1, up 3
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 63.9% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    62.7%
    59% to convert
    Field goal
    57.0%−5.7
    94% to make
    Punt
    42.3%−20.4
    average punt
  9. Q4 11:37ORST 4th & 1 at ORST 34, up 17
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 93.5% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    94.1%
    71% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    Punt
    93.4%−0.7
    average punt
  10. Q4 11:37ORST 4th & 1 at CAL 16, up 17
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 93.7% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    93.5%
    71% to convert
    Field goal
    92.3%−1.3
    81% to make
    Punt
    88.7%−4.9
    average punt
  11. Q4 2:25ORST 4th & 10 at CAL 14, up 17
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 97.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    97.0%−0.2
    26% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    97.2%
    84% to make
    Punt
    95.8%−1.3
    average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
CAL made the numbers' call on 4 of 5ORST made the numbers' call on 7 of 7
  1. Q1 7:42ORST Touchdown, up 6 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    67.6%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    67.6%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  2. Q2 12:24ORST Touchdown, up 10 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    71.5%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    71.5%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  3. Q2 11:16CAL Touchdown, down 5 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    35.5%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    35.4%−0.1
    45% to convert
  4. Q2 8:09CAL Touchdown, up 2 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    43.9%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    43.8%−0.1
    45% to convert
  5. Q2 2:00ORST Touchdown, up 3 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    64.1%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    64.0%−0.1
    45% to convert
  6. Q3 13:32ORST Touchdown, up 10 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    75.6%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    75.5%−0.1
    45% to convert
  7. Q3 9:53CAL Touchdown, down 5 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    34.0%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    33.8%−0.2
    45% to convert
  8. Q3 5:40ORST Touchdown, up 10 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    79.0%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    78.9%−0.1
    45% to convert
  9. Q3 2:45CAL Touchdown, down 5 before the try
    Close callWent for two · converted
    Kick
    33.8%
    97% to make
    Go for twoTheir call
    33.6%−0.2
    45% to convert
  10. Q4 14:25ORST Touchdown, up 9 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    80.0%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    79.8%−0.2
    45% to convert
  11. Q4 12:32ORST Touchdown, up 16 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    91.5%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    91.3%−0.2
    45% to convert
  12. Q4 1:04CAL Touchdown, down 14 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersWent for two · converted
    Kick
    2.7%−0.2
    97% to make
    Go for twoTheir call
    2.9%
    45% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chart
CALDrive 1DOWNS
8 plays · 28 yds · 2:0427% → 28%
Q1 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 25
0
26.8%
Fernando Mendoza pass incomplete to Jeremiah HunterSimilar
Q1 15:00
2ND & 10
OWN 25
+8
26.8%
Fernando Mendoza pass complete to Taj Davis for 8 yds to the CAL 33Similar
Q1 15:00
3RD & 2
OWN 33
+12
26.8%
Jaydn Ott run for 12 yds to the CAL 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 45
+3
26.8%
Jaydn Ott run for 3 yds to the CAL 48Similar
Q1 15:00
2ND & 7
OWN 48
+5
26.8%
Fernando Mendoza pass complete to Taj Davis for 5 yds to the ORST 47Similar
Q1 15:00
3RD & 2
OPP 47
0
26.8%
Fernando Mendoza pass complete to Trond Grizzell for no gain to the ORST 47Similar
Q1 12:56
4TH & 2
OPP 47
0
27.9%
Fernando Mendoza pass incomplete to Taj DavisSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ORSTDrive 2TD
9 plays · 53 yds · 5:1472% → 73%
Q1 12:56
1ST & 10
OWN 47
+6
27.6%
DJ Uiagalelei run for 6 yds to the CAL 47Similar
Q1 12:56
2ND & 4
OPP 47
+8
27.6%
Damien Martinez run for 8 yds to the CAL 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 12:56
1ST & 10
OPP 39
+16
27.6%
DJ Uiagalelei pass complete to Damien Martinez for 16 yds to the CAL 23 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 12:56
1ST & 10
OPP 23
+9
27.6%
DJ Uiagalelei pass complete to Anthony Gould for 9 yds to the CAL 14Similar
Q1 12:56
2ND & 1
OPP 14
+1
27.6%
Damien Martinez run for 1 yd to the CAL 13 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 12:56
1ST & 10
OPP 13
+8
27.6%
Deshaun Fenwick run for 8 yds to the CAL 5Similar
Q1 12:56
2ND & 2
OPP 5
+1
27.6%
Anthony Gould run for 1 yd to the CAL 4Similar
Q1 12:56
3RD & 1
OPP 4
+2
27.6%
Deshaun Fenwick run for 2 yds to the CAL 2 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 7:42
1ST & GOAL
OPP 2
+2
27.1%
DJ Uiagalelei pass complete to Jack Velling for 2 yds for a TD (Atticus Sappington KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CALDrive 3PUNT
8 plays · 37 yds · 2:0328% → 28%
Q1 7:42
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+24
27.9%
Jaydn Ott run for 24 yds to the CAL 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 7:42
1ST & 10
OWN 49
0
28.5%
Jaydn Ott run for no gain to the CAL 49Similar
Q1 7:42
2ND & 10
OWN 49
+11
28.4%
Fernando Mendoza pass complete to Jack Endries for 11 yds to the ORST 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 7:42
1ST & 10
OPP 40
0
28.7%
Fernando Mendoza pass incomplete to Monroe YoungSimilar
Q1 7:42
2ND & 10
OPP 40
0
28.6%
Fernando Mendoza pass incomplete to Jeremiah HunterSimilar
Q1 7:42
3RD & 10
OPP 40
+2
28.4%
Jaydn Ott run for 2 yds to the ORST 38Similar
Q1 5:39
4TH & 8
OPP 38
0
28.4%
Lachlan Wilson punt for 29 yds, fair catch by Anthony Gould at the ORST 9Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ORSTDrive 4PUNT
5 plays · 6 yds · 1:5972% → 71%
Q1 5:39
1ST & 10
OWN 9
0
28.2%
DJ Uiagalelei pass incomplete to Damien MartinezSimilar
Q1 5:39
2ND & 10
OWN 9
+2
28.2%
Damien Martinez run for 2 yds to the ORST 11Similar
Q1 5:39
3RD & 8
OWN 11
-5
28.3%
PENALTY OSU False Start (Fuaga,Taliese) 5 yards from OSU11 to OSU06. NO PLAY.Similar
Q1 5:39
3RD & 13
OWN 6
+9
28.4%
DJ Uiagalelei pass complete to Anthony Gould for 9 yds to the ORST 15Similar
Q1 3:40
4TH & 4
OWN 15
+8
28.9%
Josh Green punt for 50 yds , Jeremiah Hunter returns for 8 yds to the CAL 43Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CALDrive 5FG
10 plays · 54 yds · 3:4229% → 32%
Q1 3:40
1ST & 10
OWN 43
0
29.2%
Jaydn Ott run for no gain to the CAL 43Similar
Q1 3:40
2ND & 10
OWN 43
+21
29.0%
Fernando Mendoza pass complete to Jack Endries for 21 yds to the ORST 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 3:40
1ST & 10
OPP 36
+11
29.7%
Fernando Mendoza run for 11 yds to the ORST 25 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 3:40
1ST & 10
OPP 25
+2
30.1%
Fernando Mendoza pass complete to Jaivian Thomas for 2 yds to the ORST 23Similar
Q1 3:40
2ND & 8
OPP 23
+14
30.1%
Isaiah Ifanse run for 14 yds to the ORST 9 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 3:40
1ST & GOAL
OPP 9
+4
30.1%
Fernando Mendoza pass complete to Jeremiah Hunter for 4 yds to the ORST 5Similar
Q1 3:40
2ND & GOAL
OPP 5
+2
30.1%
Isaiah Ifanse run for 2 yds to the ORST 3Similar
Q1 0:00
3RD & GOAL
OPP 3
0
30.1%
Fernando Mendoza pass incomplete to Jaydn OttSimilar
Q2 14:58
4TH & GOAL
OPP 3
+20
32.2%
Mateen Bhaghani 20 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ORSTDrive 6TD
7 plays · 26 yds · 2:2270% → 75%
Q2 14:46
1ST & 10
OPP 26
+10
30.1%
Damien Martinez run for 10 yds to the CAL 16 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 14:46
1ST & 10
OPP 16
0
30.1%
Damien Martinez run for no gain to the CAL 16Similar
Q2 14:46
2ND & 10
OPP 16
-5
30.1%
PENALTY OSU False Start (Gray,Joshua) 5 yards from Cal16 to Cal21. NO PLAY.Similar
Q2 13:06
2ND & 15
OPP 21
+10
31.0%
Aidan Chiles pass complete to Anthony Gould for 10 yds to the CAL 11Similar
Q2 12:24
3RD & 5
OPP 11
+11
25.4%
Aidan Chiles pass complete to Silas Bolden for 11 yds for a TD (Atticus Sappington KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CALDrive 7TD
6 plays · 19 yds · 1:0329% → 36%
Q2 12:19
1ST & 10
OPP 19
0
28.8%
Fernando Mendoza pass incomplete to Jack EndriesSimilar
Q2 12:19
2ND & 10
OPP 19
+11
28.8%
Fernando Mendoza pass complete to Jeremiah Hunter for 11 yds to the ORST 8 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 12:19
1ST & GOAL
OPP 8
+1
28.8%
Jaydn Ott run for 1 yd to the ORST 9Similar
Q2 12:19
2ND & GOAL
OPP 9
0
28.8%
Fernando Mendoza pass incomplete to Taj DavisSimilar
Q2 11:16
3RD & GOAL
OPP 9
+9
35.8%
Fernando Mendoza pass complete to Isaiah Ifanse for 9 yds for a TD (Mateen Bhaghani KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ORSTDrive 8FUMBLE
2 plays · 18 yds · 0:0068% → 68%
Q2 10:48
1ST & 10
OWN 40
+18
32.1%
DJ Uiagalelei pass complete to Silas Bolden for 18 yds Silas Bolden fumbled, recovered by CAL Patrick McMorrisSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CALDrive 9TD
7 plays · 49 yds · 2:3936% → 44%
Q2 10:48
1ST & 10
OPP 49
+21
36.0%
Jaydn Ott run for 21 yds to the ORST 28 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 10:48
1ST & 10
OPP 28
+11
37.1%
Fernando Mendoza run for 11 yds to the ORST 17 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 10:48
1ST & 10
OPP 17
+9
37.1%
Jaydn Ott run for 9 yds to the ORST 8Similar
Q2 10:48
2ND & 1
OPP 8
+2
37.1%
Jaydn Ott run for 2 yds to the ORST 6 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 10:48
1ST & GOAL
OPP 6
+2
37.1%
Isaiah Ifanse run for 2 yds to the ORST 4Similar
Q2 10:48
2ND & GOAL
OPP 4
+3
37.1%
Jaivian Thomas run for 3 yds to the ORST 1Similar
Q2 8:09
3RD & GOAL
OPP 1
+1
43.9%
Isaiah Ifanse run for 1 yd for a TD (Mateen Bhaghani KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ORSTDrive 10TD
13 plays · 75 yds · 6:0458% → 69%
Q2 8:04
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+6
42.4%
Damien Martinez run for 6 yds to the ORST 31Similar
Q2 8:04
2ND & 4
OWN 31
+24
41.6%
Damien Martinez run for 24 yds to the CAL 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 8:04
1ST & 10
OPP 45
+26
40.0%
DJ Uiagalelei pass complete to Jack Velling for 26 yds to the CAL 19 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 8:04
1ST & 10
OPP 19
+6
39.1%
DJ Uiagalelei pass complete to Anthony Gould for 6 yds to the CAL 13Similar
Q2 8:04
2ND & 4
OPP 13
+1
39.1%
Deshaun Fenwick run for 1 yd to the CAL 12Similar
Q2 8:04
3RD & 3
OPP 12
+2
40.1%
DJ Uiagalelei run for 2 yds to the CAL 10Similar
Q2 8:04
4TH & 1
OPP 10
+1
41.2%
DJ Uiagalelei run for 1 yd to the CAL 9 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 8:04
1ST & GOAL
OPP 9
+5
39.1%
Damien Martinez run for 5 yds to the CAL 4Similar
Q2 8:04
2ND & GOAL
OPP 4
+2
39.1%
Deshaun Fenwick run for 2 yds to the CAL 2Similar
Q2 8:04
3RD & GOAL
OPP 2
+1
40.1%
Damien Martinez run for 1 yd to the CAL 3Similar
Q2 2:00
4TH & GOAL
OPP 3
+3
31.0%
DJ Uiagalelei pass complete to Jack Velling for 3 yds for a TD (Atticus Sappington KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CALDrive 11PUNT
6 plays · 9 yds · 1:5235% → 32%
Q2 2:00
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+3
34.6%
Fernando Mendoza pass complete to Jaydn Ott for 3 yds to the CAL 22Similar
Q2 2:00
2ND & 13
OWN 22
+12
34.3%
Jaydn Ott run for 12 yds to the CAL 34Similar
Q2 2:00
3RD & 1
OWN 34
0
35.6%
Jaydn Ott run for no gain to the CAL 34Similar
Q2 0:08
4TH & 1
OWN 34
0
32.0%
Lachlan Wilson punt for 43 yds, fair catch by Anthony Gould at the ORST 23Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ORSTDrive 12END OF HALF
1 play · -1 yds · 0:0067% → 67%
Q2 0:00
1ST & 10
OWN 23
-1
33.2%
D. Uiagalelei takes a kneeSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ORSTDrive 13TD
5 plays · 50 yds · 1:2069% → 78%
Q3 14:52
1ST & 10
50
+6
30.9%
DJ Uiagalelei pass complete to Jermaine Terry II for 6 yds to the CAL 44Similar
Q3 14:52
2ND & 4
OPP 44
+6
30.6%
Damien Martinez run for 6 yds to the CAL 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 13:32
1ST & 10
OPP 38
+38
22.0%
DJ Uiagalelei pass complete to Jesiah Irish for 38 yds for a TD (Atticus Sappington KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CALDrive 14TD
13 plays · 75 yds · 3:3922% → 41%
Q3 13:32
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+6
22.3%
Fernando Mendoza pass complete to Jeremiah Hunter for 6 yds to the CAL 31Similar
Q3 13:32
2ND & 4
OWN 31
+1
22.9%
Jaydn Ott run for 1 yd to the CAL 32Similar
Q3 13:32
3RD & 3
OWN 32
+4
22.4%
Fernando Mendoza pass complete to Taj Davis for 4 yds to the CAL 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 13:32
1ST & 10
OWN 36
+5
23.0%
Fernando Mendoza run for 5 yds to the CAL 41Similar
Q3 13:32
2ND & 5
OWN 41
+24
23.9%
Isaiah Ifanse run for 24 yds to the ORST 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 13:32
1ST & 10
OPP 35
+5
25.7%
Ashton Stredick run for 5 yds to the ORST 30Similar
Q3 13:32
2ND & 5
OPP 30
+13
25.7%
Fernando Mendoza pass complete to Taj Davis for 13 yds to the ORST 17 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 13:32
1ST & 10
OPP 17
-5
25.6%
No Huddle-Shotgun Mendoza,Fernando pass incomplete short middle to Endries,Jack PENALTY Cal Illegal Formation 5 yards from OSU17 to OSU22. NO PLAY.Similar
Q3 13:32
1ST & 15
OPP 22
+9
25.4%
Fernando Mendoza pass complete to Taj Davis for 9 yds to the ORST 13Similar
Q3 13:32
2ND & 6
OPP 13
+8
25.6%
Isaiah Ifanse run for 8 yds to the ORST 5 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 9:53
1ST & GOAL
OPP 5
+5
41.1%
Isaiah Ifanse run for 5 yds for a TD (Mateen Bhaghani KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ORSTDrive 15TD
11 plays · 66 yds · 4:0968% → 83%
Q3 9:49
1ST & 10
OWN 34
+5
32.3%
Deshaun Fenwick run for 5 yds to the ORST 39Similar
Q3 9:49
2ND & 5
OWN 39
+15
31.0%
DJ Uiagalelei pass complete to Jesiah Irish for 15 yds to the CAL 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 9:49
1ST & 10
OPP 46
0
30.1%
DJ Uiagalelei pass incomplete to Jesiah IrishSimilar
Q3 9:49
2ND & 10
OPP 46
0
30.3%
Deshaun Fenwick run for no gain to the CAL 46Similar
Q3 9:49
3RD & 10
OPP 46
+22
31.4%
DJ Uiagalelei pass complete to Anthony Gould for 22 yds to the CAL 24 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 9:49
1ST & 10
OPP 24
+11
28.6%
Deshaun Fenwick run for 11 yds to the CAL 13 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 9:49
1ST & 10
OPP 13
+3
28.6%
Deshaun Fenwick run for 3 yds to the CAL 10Similar
Q3 9:49
2ND & 7
OPP 10
+3
28.6%
Deshaun Fenwick run for 3 yds to the CAL 7Similar
Q3 5:40
3RD & 4
OPP 7
+7
17.1%
DJ Uiagalelei pass complete to Jack Velling for 7 yds for a TD (Atticus Sappington KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CALDrive 16TD
11 plays · 75 yds · 2:5518% → 40%
Q3 5:40
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+9
18.2%
Isaiah Ifanse run for 9 yds to the CAL 34Similar
Q3 5:40
2ND & 1
OWN 34
+2
19.0%
Ashton Stredick run for 2 yds to the CAL 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 5:40
1ST & 10
OWN 36
0
18.8%
Fernando Mendoza pass incomplete to Jack EndriesSimilar
Q3 5:40
2ND & 10
OWN 36
+3
18.5%
Fernando Mendoza pass complete to Jeremiah Hunter for 3 yds to the CAL 33Similar
Q3 5:40
3RD & 13
OWN 33
0
17.6%
Fernando Mendoza pass incomplete to Jack EndriesSimilar
Q3 4:00
4TH & 13
OWN 33
+15
15.2%
Wilson,Lachlan punt 31 yards to the OSU36 PENALTY OSU Roughing The Kicker (Reichle,Jake) 15 yards from Cal33 to Cal48, 1ST DOWN. NO PLAY.Similar
Q3 4:00
1ST & 10
OWN 48
+2
17.6%
Isaiah Ifanse run for 2 yds to the CAL 46Similar
Q3 4:00
2ND & 12
OWN 46
+24
16.7%
Fernando Mendoza pass complete to Monroe Young for 9 yds to the ORST 45 for a 1ST down Oregon State Penalty, Roughing The Passer (15 Yards) to the ORST 30 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 2:45
1ST & 10
OPP 30
+30
39.9%
Jack Endries 30 Yd pass from Fernando Mendoza (Fernando Mendoza Pass to Jeremiah Hunter for Two-Point Conversion)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ORSTDrive 17TD
10 plays · 64 yds · 3:1968% → 81%
Q3 2:44
1ST & 10
OWN 36
+2
32.1%
Damien Martinez run for 2 yds to the ORST 38Similar
Q3 2:44
2ND & 8
OWN 38
0
31.2%
DJ Uiagalelei pass incomplete to Anthony GouldSimilar
Q3 1:40
3RD & 8
OWN 38
+31
33.4%
DJ Uiagalelei pass complete to Anthony Gould for 31 yds to the CAL 31 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 1:40
1ST & 10
OPP 31
+11
29.5%
Silas Bolden run for 11 yds to the CAL 20 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 1:40
1ST & 10
OPP 20
+13
29.0%
Damien Martinez run for 13 yds to the CAL 7 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 1:40
1ST & GOAL
OPP 7
0
29.0%
DJ Uiagalelei pass incomplete to Anthony GouldSimilar
Q3 0:00
2ND & GOAL
OPP 7
+4
29.0%
Damien Martinez run for 4 yds to the CAL 3Similar
Q4 15:00
3RD & GOAL
OPP 3
+2
31.4%
Damien Martinez run for 2 yds to the CAL 1Similar
Q4 14:25
4TH & GOAL
OPP 1
+1
18.7%
Damien Martinez run for 1 yd for a TD (Atticus Sappington KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CALDrive 18FUMBLE
3 plays · 24 yds · 0:2514% → 14%
Q4 14:25
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+14
13.8%
Fernando Mendoza run for 14 yds to the CAL 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 14:00
1ST & 10
OWN 39
+10
14.2%
Ashton Stredick run for 10 yds to the CAL 49 Ashton Stredick fumbled, recovered by ORST Sione LoloheaSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ORSTDrive 19TD
5 plays · 49 yds · 1:2883% → 95%
Q4 14:00
1ST & 10
OPP 49
+11
16.9%
Jesiah Irish run for 11 yds to the CAL 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 14:00
1ST & 10
OPP 38
+30
16.8%
DJ Uiagalelei pass complete to Anthony Gould for 30 yds to the CAL 8 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 14:00
1ST & GOAL
OPP 8
+6
16.0%
Damien Martinez run for 6 yds to the CAL 2Similar
Q4 12:32
2ND & GOAL
OPP 2
+2
4.6%
DJ Uiagalelei pass complete to Isaac Hodgins for 2 yds for a TD (Atticus Sappington KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CALDrive 20INT
6 plays · 28 yds · 0:553% → 3%
Q4 12:32
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+4
2.8%
Fernando Mendoza pass complete to Jack Endries for 4 yds to the CAL 29Similar
Q4 12:14
2ND & 6
OWN 29
0
3.0%
Fernando Mendoza pass incomplete to Trond GrizzellSimilar
Q4 12:14
3RD & 6
OWN 29
+24
2.9%
Fernando Mendoza pass complete to Taj Davis for 24 yds to the ORST 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 11:37
1ST & 10
OPP 47
0
3.0%
Fernando Mendoza pass interceptedSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ORSTDrive 21FG
18 plays · 61 yds · 9:1296% → 99%
Q4 11:37
1ST & 10
OWN 25
0
4.4%
Damien Martinez run for no gain to the ORST 25Similar
Q4 11:37
2ND & 10
OWN 25
+4
4.5%
Deshaun Fenwick run for 4 yds to the ORST 29Similar
Q4 11:37
3RD & 6
OWN 29
+5
4.4%
DJ Uiagalelei pass complete to Silas Bolden for 5 yds to the ORST 34Similar
Q4 11:37
4TH & 1
OWN 34
+3
4.5%
DJ Uiagalelei run for 3 yds to the ORST 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 11:37
1ST & 10
OWN 37
+22
4.1%
DJ Uiagalelei pass complete to Jeremiah Noga for 22 yds to the CAL 41 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 11:37
1ST & 10
OPP 41
-15
3.9%
Fenwick,Deshaun rush middle for 1 yard gain to the Cal40 (Correia,Ricky) PENALTY OSU Chop Block (Levengood,Jake) 15 yards from Cal41 to OSU44. NO PLAY.Similar
Q4 11:37
1ST & 25
OWN 44
+8
4.0%
DJ Uiagalelei pass complete to Deshaun Fenwick for 8 yds to the CAL 48Similar
Q4 11:37
2ND & 17
OPP 48
0
4.0%
DJ Uiagalelei pass incomplete to Silas BoldenSimilar
Q4 11:37
3RD & 17
OPP 48
+23
4.1%
Deshaun Fenwick run for 23 yds to the CAL 25 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 11:37
1ST & 10
OPP 25
+6
4.0%
Deshaun Fenwick run for 6 yds to the CAL 19Similar
Q4 11:37
2ND & 4
OPP 19
+3
4.0%
Isaiah Newell run for 3 yds to the CAL 16Similar
Q4 11:37
3RD & 1
OPP 16
0
4.1%
Deshaun Fenwick pass incomplete to Rweha Munyagi Jr.Similar
Q4 11:37
4TH & 1
OPP 16
+2
4.6%
Deshaun Fenwick run for 2 yds to the CAL 14 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 11:37
1ST & 10
OPP 14
0
4.0%
DJ Uiagalelei pass incomplete to Silas BoldenSimilar
Q4 11:37
2ND & 10
OPP 14
+2
4.0%
Deshaun Fenwick run for 2 yds to the CAL 16Similar
Q4 11:37
3RD & 12
OPP 16
+2
4.2%
DJ Uiagalelei run for 2 yds to the CAL 14Similar
Q4 2:25
4TH & 10
OPP 14
+32
0.6%
Atticus Sappington 32 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CALDrive 22TD
6 plays · 75 yds · 1:210% → 5%
Q4 2:25
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+5
0.3%
Fernando Mendoza pass complete to Asher Alberding for 5 yds to the CAL 30Similar
Q4 2:25
2ND & 5
OWN 30
+18
0.3%
Isaiah Ifanse run for 18 yds to the CAL 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 2:25
1ST & 10
OWN 48
+5
0.3%
Isaiah Ifanse run for 5 yds to the ORST 47Similar
Q4 2:25
2ND & 5
OPP 47
+38
0.4%
Fernando Mendoza pass complete to Trond Grizzell for 38 yds to the ORST 9 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 1:04
1ST & GOAL
OPP 9
+9
5.2%
Jaivian Thomas 9 Yd Run (Fernando Mendoza Pass to Trond Grizzell for Two-Point Conversion)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ORSTDrive 23END OF GAME
3 plays · 7 yds · 1:0498% → 99%
Q4 1:04
1ST & 10
OPP 42
+8
1.6%
Deshaun Fenwick run for 8 yds to the CAL 34Similar
Q4 0:00
2ND & 2
OPP 34
-1
1.5%
D. Uiagalelei takes a kneeSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
TD · Q3 2:45
Jack Endries 30 Yd pass from Fernando Mendoza (Fernando Mendoza Pass to Jeremiah Hunter for Two-Point Conversion)
+21.4
TD · Q3 9:53
Isaiah Ifanse run for 5 yds for a TD (Mateen Bhaghani KICK)
+15.5
TD · Q2 2:00
DJ Uiagalelei pass complete to Jack Velling for 3 yds for a TD (Atticus Sappington KICK)
-14.3
YardLine · model v10Model estimate - not betting advice · Data provided by CollegeFootballData.com