Try the model
COLO

Colorado 27 at Arizona State 24

ASU
2023 · Week 6 · Oct 7, 2023 · Mountain America Stadium
Speed4x
View as
Download image
Win probability · ASU
modelASU aheadCOLO aheadconfidence bandkey playASU scoreCOLO score
0%25%50%75%100%Q1Q2Q3Q4TDTDTDTDTDFGTDFGTDFGEnd of Game
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q4 12:07 · Ian Hershey punt for 49 yds , Xavier Weaver returns for 51 yds to the ASU 25
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Home team on offenseGarbage-time factorPregame priorScore diff ÷ offense timeoutsScore differentialScore diff ÷ seconds remaining
+33.5+16.80−16.8−33.5Q1Q2Q3Q4Play 151Home team on offense−6.3Garbage-time factor−4.5Pregame prior−0.7Score diff ÷ offense timeouts−1.6Score differential−1.4Score diff ÷ seconds remaining−0.7
This game in five plays
  1. TD · Q2 0:54: Shedeur Sanders run for 16 yds for a TD (Alejandro Mata KICK) — COLO win probability +17.3 pts (now 55%) (top driver: COLO has the ball).
  2. TD · Q4 14:32: Shedeur Sanders pass complete to Javon Antonio for 9 yds for a TD (Alejandro Mata KICK) — COLO win probability +26.2 pts (now 69%) (top driver: COLO has the ball).
  3. FG · Q4 10:13: Alejandro Mata 42 yd FG GOOD — COLO win probability +10.2 pts (now 78%) (top driver: COLO has the ball).
  4. TD · Q4 0:50: Trenton Bourguet pass complete to Troy Omeire for 15 yds for a TD (Dario Longhetto KICK) — ASU win probability +46.5 pts (now 69%) (top driver: ASU has the ball).
  5. FG · Q4 0:12: Alejandro Mata 43 yd FG GOOD — COLO win probability +39.5 pts (now 94%) (top driver: COLO has the ball).
Was that the right call?

Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works

Fourth downs
ASU made the numbers' call on 10 of 11COLO made the numbers' call on 11 of 13
  1. Q1 9:23COLO 4th & 22 at COLO 13, down 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 53.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    52.9%−0.4
    7% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    53.3%
    average punt
  2. Q1 8:01ASU 4th & 9 at ASU 28, up 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 47.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    46.9%−0.3
    30% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    47.2%
    average punt
  3. Q1 4:11COLO 4th & 8 at ASU 29, down 7
    Close callWent for it · 50.5% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    50.4%−0.1
    34% to convert
    Field goal
    50.5%
    58% to make
    Punt
    49.2%−1.3
    average punt
  4. Q1 2:03COLO 4th & 1 at ASU 1, down 7
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 50.1% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    49.7%
    59% to convert
    Field goal
    48.4%−1.2
    94% to make
    Punt
    45.2%−4.4
    average punt
  5. Q1 0:50ASU 4th & 5 at ASU 40, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 46.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    46.4%−<0.1
    41% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    46.4%
    average punt
  6. Q2 14:05COLO 4th & 19 at COLO 16, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 52.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    51.2%−1.7
    10% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    52.9%
    average punt
  7. Q2 12:43ASU 4th & 11 at COLO 46, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 47.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    47.2%−0.3
    27% to convert
    Field goal
    46.9%−0.6
    23% to make
    PuntTheir call
    47.5%
    average punt
  8. Q2 11:28COLO 4th & 3 at COLO 20, tied
    Close callPunted · 51.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    51.8%
    51% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    51.4%−0.4
    average punt
  9. Q2 5:10COLO 4th & 12 at COLO 23, down 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 39.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    37.6%−2.0
    22% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    39.6%
    average punt
  10. Q2 5:10COLO 4th & 12 at COLO 23, down 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 39.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    37.6%−2.0
    22% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    39.6%
    average punt
  11. Q2 3:03ASU 4th & 1 at ASU 28, up 7
    Numbers favored go for it by 1.7 ptsPunted · 59.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    60.8%
    71% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    59.1%−1.7
    average punt
  12. Q3 13:48COLO 4th & 7 at COLO 28, down 3
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 42.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    42.7%−1.3
    36% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    44.0%
    average punt
  13. Q3 13:48ASU 4th & 3 at ASU 27, up 3
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 54.4% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    55.6%
    52% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    Punt
    55.0%−0.6
    average punt
  14. Q3 8:16ASU 4th & 10 at COLO 41, up 3
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 58.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    57.9%−0.1
    30% to convert
    Field goal
    57.3%−0.8
    32% to make
    PuntTheir call
    58.0%
    average punt
  15. Q3 5:04COLO 4th & 27 at COLO 29, down 3
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 38.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    34.9%−5.0
    6% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    39.9%
    average punt
  16. Q3 5:04COLO 4th & 27 at COLO 29, down 3
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 38.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    34.9%−5.0
    6% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    39.9%
    average punt
  17. Q3 1:07ASU 4th & 22 at ASU 19, up 3
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 58.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    52.9%−6.9
    7% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    59.7%
    average punt
  18. Q4 12:07ASU 4th & 8 at ASU 27, down 4
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 35.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    34.1%−1.6
    33% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    35.7%
    average punt
  19. Q4 10:13COLO 4th & 9 at ASU 24, up 4
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 69.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    66.5%−1.6
    31% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    68.2%
    68% to make
    Punt
    54.3%−13.9
    average punt
  20. Q4 10:13ASU 4th & 2 at COLO 31, down 7
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 28.8% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    28.7%
    57% to convert
    Field goal
    25.4%−3.3
    54% to make
    Punt
    22.2%−6.5
    average punt
  21. Q4 6:32ASU 4th & 17 at COLO 34, down 7
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 21.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    18.9%−2.7
    15% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    21.6%
    47% to make
    Punt
    18.9%−2.7
    average punt
  22. Q4 3:26COLO 4th & 11 at ASU 45, up 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 86.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    86.4%−0.6
    27% to convert
    Field goal
    85.7%−1.2
    25% to make
    PuntTheir call
    86.9%
    average punt
  23. Q4 1:26ASU 4th & 1 at COLO 32, down 7
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 21.5% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    20.9%
    71% to convert
    Field goal
    11.3%−9.6
    51% to make
    Punt
    10.2%−10.7
    average punt
  24. Q4 0:12COLO 4th & 3 at ASU 25, tied
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 53.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    44.2%−10.5
    52% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    54.7%
    66% to make
    Punt
    26.3%−28.3
    average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
ASU made the numbers' call on 3 of 3COLO made the numbers' call on 3 of 3
  1. Q1 10:23ASU Touchdown, up 6 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    45.5%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    45.5%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  2. Q1 2:03COLO Touchdown, down 1 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    53.0%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    52.9%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  3. Q2 6:38ASU Touchdown, up 6 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    57.2%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    57.1%−0.1
    45% to convert
  4. Q2 0:54COLO Touchdown, down 1 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    47.4%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    47.3%−0.1
    45% to convert
  5. Q4 14:32COLO Touchdown, up 3 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    59.2%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    58.9%−0.3
    45% to convert
  6. Q4 0:50ASU Touchdown, down 1 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    48.8%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    42.6%−6.2
    45% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chart
ASUDrive 1TD
12 plays · 66 yds · 4:2946% → 50%
Q1 14:52
1ST & 10
OWN 34
0
46.4%
Trenton Bourguet pass incomplete to Shawn CharlesSimilar
Q1 14:52
2ND & 10
OWN 34
+5
46.4%
Kyson Brown run for 5 yds to the ASU 39Similar
Q1 14:52
3RD & 5
OWN 39
+15
46.4%
Trenton Bourguet pass complete to Elijhah Badger for 15 yds to the COLO 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 14:52
1ST & 10
OPP 46
+2
46.4%
Tevin White run for 2 yds to the COLO 48Similar
Q1 14:52
2ND & 12
OPP 48
+5
46.4%
PENALTY ASU False Start (Na'a,Sean) 5 yards from CU 48 to ASU47. NO PLAY.Similar
Q1 12:43
2ND & 17
OWN 47
+5
47.1%
Trenton Bourguet pass complete to Elijhah Badger for 5 yds to the COLO 48Similar
Q1 12:43
3RD & 12
OPP 48
+27
47.1%
Trenton Bourguet pass complete to Troy Omeire for 27 yds to the COLO 21 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 12:43
1ST & 10
OPP 21
+10
47.4%
Colorado Penalty, Defensive Holding (Shilo Sanders) to the COLO 30Similar
Q1 12:43
1ST & 19
OPP 30
+28
47.3%
Trenton Bourguet pass complete to Elijhah Badger for 28 yds to the COLO 2 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 10:23
1ST & GOAL
OPP 2
+2
50.0%
Trenton Bourguet run for 2 yds for a TD (Dario Longhetto KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
COLODrive 2PUNT
5 plays · -12 yds · 1:0051% → 50%
Q1 10:23
1ST & 10
OWN 25
-10
48.9%
Colorado Penalty, Intentional Grounding (-10 Yards) to the COLO 15Similar
Q1 10:23
2ND & 20
OWN 15
0
49.0%
Shedeur Sanders pass incomplete to Omarion MillerSimilar
Q1 10:23
3RD & 20
OWN 15
-2
49.2%
Shedeur Sanders sacked by Prince Dorbah for a loss of 2 yards to the COLO 13Similar
Q1 9:23
4TH & 22
OWN 13
0
50.3%
Mark Vassett punt for 60 ydsSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ASUDrive 3PUNT
5 plays · 1 yds · 1:2250% → 51%
Q1 9:23
1ST & 10
OWN 27
+3
50.2%
Cameron Skattebo run for 3 yds to the ASU 30Similar
Q1 9:23
2ND & 7
OWN 30
+3
50.2%
Trenton Bourguet pass complete to Elijhah Badger for 3 yds to the ASU 33Similar
Q1 9:23
3RD & 4
OWN 33
0
50.1%
Trenton Bourguet pass incomplete to Xavier GuillorySimilar
Q1 9:23
4TH & 4
OWN 33
-5
49.9%
PENALTY ASU Illegal Formation 5 yards from ASU33 to ASU28. NO PLAY.Similar
Q1 8:01
4TH & 9
OWN 28
0
50.5%
Ian Hershey punt for 45 yds , Jimmy Horn Jr. returns for no gain to the COLO 25Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
COLODrive 4TD
20 plays · 75 yds · 5:5849% → 52%
Q1 8:01
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+4
50.7%
Anthony Hankerson run for 4 yds to the COLO 29Similar
Q1 8:01
2ND & 6
OWN 29
+3
50.5%
Shedeur Sanders pass complete to Michael Harrison for 3 yds to the COLO 32Similar
Q1 8:01
3RD & 3
OWN 32
+4
50.6%
Shedeur Sanders pass complete to Anthony Hankerson for 4 yds to the COLO 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 8:01
1ST & 10
OWN 36
+12
50.4%
Anthony Hankerson run for 12 yds to the COLO 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 8:01
1ST & 10
OWN 48
+5
50.0%
Anthony Hankerson run for 5 yds to the ASU 47Similar
Q1 8:01
2ND & 5
OPP 47
+5
49.9%
Shedeur Sanders pass complete to Anthony Hankerson for 5 yds to the ASU 42 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 8:01
1ST & 10
OPP 42
+11
49.9%
Shedeur Sanders pass complete to Xavier Weaver for 11 yds to the ASU 31 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 8:01
1ST & 10
OPP 31
+5
49.6%
Shedeur Sanders pass complete to Jimmy Horn Jr. for 5 yds to the ASU 26Similar
Q1 8:01
2ND & 5
OPP 26
+2
49.6%
Dylan Edwards run for 2 yds to the ASU 24Similar
Q1 8:01
3RD & 3
OPP 24
-5
49.9%
PENALTY CU False Start (Young,Reggie) 5 yards from ASU24 to ASU29. NO PLAY.Similar
Q1 8:01
3RD & 8
OPP 29
0
50.0%
Shedeur Sanders pass incomplete to Jimmy Horn Jr.Similar
Q1 4:11
4TH & 8
OPP 29
+15
54.3%
Shedeur Sanders pass complete to Dylan Edwards for 15 yds to the ASU 14 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 4:11
1ST & 10
OPP 14
+12
52.9%
Shedeur Sanders pass complete to Michael Harrison for 12 yds to the ASU 2 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 4:11
1ST & GOAL
OPP 2
+2
52.9%
Dylan Edwards run for 2 yds to the ASU 4Similar
Q1 4:11
2ND & GOAL
OPP 4
0
52.9%
Shedeur Sanders pass incomplete to Michael HarrisonSimilar
Q1 4:11
3RD & GOAL
OPP 4
-5
53.4%
PENALTY CU False Start (Bailey,Jack) 5 yards from ASU04 to ASU09. NO PLAY.Similar
Q1 4:11
3RD & GOAL
OPP 9
+8
53.6%
Shedeur Sanders pass complete to Anthony Hankerson for 8 yds to the ASU 1Similar
Q1 2:03
4TH & GOAL
OPP 1
+1
47.9%
Xavier Weaver run for 1 yd for a TD (Alejandro Mata KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ASUDrive 5PUNT
6 plays · 5 yds · 1:1350% → 50%
Q1 2:03
1ST & 10
OWN 35
+1
50.4%
Trenton Bourguet pass complete to Melquan Stovall for 1 yd to the ASU 36Similar
Q1 2:03
2ND & 9
OWN 36
+4
50.5%
Trenton Bourguet pass complete to Xavier Guillory for 4 yds to the ASU 40Similar
Q1 2:03
3RD & 5
OWN 40
0
50.7%
Trenton Bourguet pass incomplete to Ryan MorganSimilar
Q1 0:50
4TH & 5
OWN 40
0
50.3%
Ian Hershey punt for 50 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the COLO 10Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
COLODrive 6PUNT
6 plays · 6 yds · 1:4550% → 49%
Q1 0:50
1ST & 10
OWN 10
+6
49.8%
Anthony Hankerson run for 6 yds to the COLO 16Similar
Q1 0:50
2ND & 4
OWN 16
+9
49.7%
Shedeur Sanders pass complete to Omarion Miller for 9 yds to the COLO 25 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 0:00
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+1
49.7%
Anthony Hankerson run for 1 yd to the COLO 24Similar
Q2 15:00
2ND & 11
OWN 24
0
49.8%
Shedeur Sanders pass incomplete to Dylan EdwardsSimilar
Q2 15:00
3RD & 11
OWN 24
-8
50.3%
Shedeur Sanders sacked for a loss of 8 yards to the COLO 16Similar
Q2 14:05
4TH & 19
OWN 16
0
51.2%
Mark Vassett punt for 29 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the COLO 45Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ASUDrive 7PUNT
4 plays · -1 yds · 1:2253% → 51%
Q2 14:05
1ST & 10
OPP 45
+5
52.8%
Giovanni Sanders run for 5 yds to the 50 yard lineSimilar
Q2 14:05
2ND & 15
50
+4
51.6%
Trenton Bourguet pass complete to Elijhah Badger for 4 yds to the COLO 46Similar
Q2 14:05
3RD & 11
OPP 46
0
51.6%
Trenton Bourguet pass incomplete to Troy OmeireSimilar
Q2 12:43
4TH & 11
OPP 46
0
51.3%
Ian Hershey punt for 33 yds, fair catch by Xavier Weaver at the COLO 13Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
COLODrive 8PUNT
4 plays · 7 yds · 1:1550% → 48%
Q2 12:43
1ST & 10
OWN 13
+3
50.4%
Anthony Hankerson run for 3 yds to the COLO 16Similar
Q2 12:43
2ND & 7
OWN 16
0
50.3%
Shedeur Sanders pass incomplete to Willie GainesSimilar
Q2 12:43
3RD & 7
OWN 16
+4
51.0%
Shedeur Sanders pass complete to Dylan Edwards for 4 yds to the COLO 20Similar
Q2 11:28
4TH & 3
OWN 20
0
51.6%
Mark Vassett punt for 54 yds , Melquan Stovall returns for no gain to the ASU 41Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ASUDrive 9TD
10 plays · 59 yds · 4:5053% → 64%
Q2 11:28
1ST & 10
OWN 41
+6
53.1%
Tevin White run for 6 yds to the ASU 47Similar
Q2 11:28
2ND & 4
OWN 47
+5
53.6%
No Huddle-Shotgun Bourguet,Trenton pass incomplete short middle to Swinson,Messiah PENALTY CU Offside (McLendon II,Derrick) 5 yards from ASU47 to CU 48, 1ST DOWN. NO PLAY.Similar
Q2 11:28
1ST & 10
OPP 48
+11
53.8%
Trenton Bourguet pass complete to Elijhah Badger for 11 yds to the COLO 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 11:28
1ST & 10
OPP 37
+11
53.9%
Trenton Bourguet run for 11 yds to the COLO 26 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 11:28
1ST & 10
OPP 26
+3
54.7%
Cameron Skattebo run for 3 yds to the COLO 23Similar
Q2 11:28
2ND & 7
OPP 23
0
54.7%
Trenton Bourguet pass incomplete to Xavier GuillorySimilar
Q2 11:28
3RD & 7
OPP 23
+13
53.9%
Trenton Bourguet pass complete to Melquan Stovall for 13 yds to the COLO 10 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 11:28
1ST & GOAL
OPP 10
+5
54.6%
Cameron Skattebo run for 5 yds to the COLO 5Similar
Q2 11:28
2ND & GOAL
OPP 5
+4
54.6%
Trenton Bourguet pass complete to Andre Johnson for 4 yds to the COLO 1Similar
Q2 6:38
3RD & GOAL
OPP 1
+1
64.3%
Cameron Skattebo run for 1 yd for a TD (Dario Longhetto KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
COLODrive 10PUNT
6 plays · -2 yds · 1:2837% → 34%
Q2 6:38
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+2
62.8%
Kavosiey Smoke run for 2 yds to the COLO 23Similar
Q2 6:38
2ND & 12
OWN 23
0
63.1%
Shedeur Sanders pass incomplete to Omarion MillerSimilar
Q2 6:38
3RD & 12
OWN 23
0
63.7%
Shedeur Sanders run for no gain to the COLO 23Similar
Q2 5:10
4TH & 12
OWN 23
+8
65.6%
Mark Vassett punt for 51 yds for a 1ST down , Javen Jacobs returns for 8 yds to the ASU 34 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 5:10
4TH & 12
OWN 23
+8
65.6%
Mark Vassett punt for 51 yds , Javen Jacobs returns for 8 yds to the ASU 19Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ASUDrive 11PUNT
5 plays · 9 yds · 2:0764% → 63%
Q2 5:10
1ST & 10
OWN 19
+2
63.6%
Trenton Bourguet pass complete to Elijhah Badger for 2 yds to the ASU 21Similar
Q2 5:10
2ND & 8
OWN 21
+2
63.4%
Trenton Bourguet pass complete to Elijhah Badger for 2 yds to the ASU 23Similar
Q2 5:10
3RD & 6
OWN 23
+5
62.9%
Trenton Bourguet run for 5 yds to the ASU 28Similar
Q2 3:03
4TH & 1
OWN 28
0
62.8%
Cameron Skattebo punt for 53 ydsSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
COLODrive 12TD
11 plays · 81 yds · 2:0934% → 55%
Q2 3:03
1ST & 10
OWN 19
+7
66.3%
Anthony Hankerson run for 7 yds to the COLO 26Similar
Q2 3:03
2ND & 3
OWN 26
+5
65.7%
Shedeur Sanders pass complete to Jimmy Horn Jr. for 5 yds to the COLO 31 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 3:03
1ST & 10
OWN 31
+6
65.9%
Shedeur Sanders pass complete to Michael Harrison for 6 yds to the COLO 37Similar
Q2 3:03
2ND & 4
OWN 37
+24
64.0%
Shedeur Sanders pass complete to Jimmy Horn Jr. for 24 yds to the ASU 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 3:03
1ST & 10
OPP 39
+3
62.9%
Anthony Hankerson run for 3 yds to the ASU 36Similar
Q2 3:03
2ND & 7
OPP 36
+15
62.6%
Arizona State Penalty, Roughing The Passer (Alphonso Taylor) to the ASU 16 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 3:03
1ST & 10
OPP 16
0
61.3%
Shedeur Sanders pass incomplete to Omarion MillerSimilar
Q2 3:03
2ND & 10
OPP 16
0
61.3%
Shedeur Sanders pass incomplete to Xavier WeaverSimilar
Q2 0:54
3RD & 10
OPP 16
+16
45.4%
Shedeur Sanders run for 16 yds for a TD (Alejandro Mata KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ASUDrive 13FG
7 plays · 48 yds · 0:5053% → 60%
Q2 0:50
1ST & 10
OWN 37
+22
53.4%
Trenton Bourguet pass complete to Xavier Guillory for 22 yds to the COLO 41 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:50
1ST & 10
OPP 41
0
55.8%
Trenton Bourguet pass incomplete to Xavier GuillorySimilar
Q2 0:50
2ND & 10
OPP 41
+14
55.6%
Trenton Bourguet pass complete to Cameron Skattebo for 14 yds to the COLO 27 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:50
1ST & 10
OPP 27
+12
56.9%
Trenton Bourguet run for 12 yds to the COLO 15 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:50
1ST & 10
OPP 15
0
56.9%
Trenton Bourguet pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 0:50
2ND & 10
OPP 15
0
56.9%
Trenton Bourguet pass incomplete to Jalin ConyersSimilar
Q2 0:00
3RD & 10
OPP 15
+33
59.8%
Dario Longhetto 33 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
COLODrive 14PUNT
5 plays · 3 yds · 1:1244% → 41%
Q3 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+1
56.2%
Dylan Edwards run for 1 yd to the COLO 26Similar
Q3 15:00
2ND & 9
OWN 26
+2
56.3%
Shedeur Sanders pass complete to Jimmy Horn Jr. for 2 yds to the COLO 28Similar
Q3 15:00
3RD & 7
OWN 28
0
57.2%
Colorado Penalty, Offensive Holding (Cormani McClain) declinedSimilar
Q3 13:48
4TH & 7
OWN 28
+7
59.0%
Mark Vassett punt for 59 yds , Melquan Stovall returns for 7 yds to the ASU 20Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ASUDrive 15PUNT
13 plays · 39 yds · 5:3258% → 61%
Q3 13:48
1ST & 10
OWN 20
0
58.2%
Trenton Bourguet pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 13:48
2ND & 10
OWN 20
+5
57.9%
Trenton Bourguet pass complete to Andre Johnson for 5 yds to the ASU 25Similar
Q3 13:48
3RD & 5
OWN 25
+2
57.1%
Trenton Bourguet pass complete to Kyson Brown for 2 yds to the ASU 27Similar
Q3 13:48
4TH & 3
OWN 27
+6
56.1%
Cameron Skattebo run for 6 yds to the ASU 33 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 13:48
1ST & 10
OWN 33
+11
58.6%
Cameron Skattebo run for 11 yds to the ASU 44 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 13:48
1ST & 10
OWN 44
+7
60.5%
Cameron Skattebo run for 7 yds to the COLO 49Similar
Q3 13:48
2ND & 3
OPP 49
+10
61.1%
No Huddle-Shotgun White,Tevin rush right for 4 yards gain to the CU 45 (Ward,Rodrick) PENALTY ASU Holding 10 yards from CU 49 to ASU41. NO PLAY.Similar
Q3 13:48
2ND & 13
OWN 41
+18
58.7%
Trenton Bourguet pass complete to Messiah Swinson for 18 yds to the COLO 41 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 13:48
1ST & 10
OPP 41
+1
61.3%
Tevin White run for 1 yd to the COLO 42Similar
Q3 13:48
2ND & 11
OPP 42
+1
60.8%
Cameron Skattebo run for 1 yd to the COLO 41Similar
Q3 13:48
3RD & 10
OPP 41
0
59.8%
Trenton Bourguet pass incomplete to Elijhah BadgerSimilar
Q3 8:16
4TH & 10
OPP 41
0
61.2%
Ian Hershey punt for 31 ydsSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
COLODrive 16PUNT
11 plays · 19 yds · 3:1240% → 36%
Q3 8:16
1ST & 10
OWN 10
+5
60.0%
Shedeur Sanders pass complete to Dylan Edwards for 5 yds to the COLO 15Similar
Q3 8:16
2ND & 5
OWN 15
+3
59.9%
Dylan Edwards run for 3 yds to the COLO 18Similar
Q3 8:16
3RD & 2
OWN 18
+13
60.9%
Shedeur Sanders pass complete to Jimmy Horn Jr. for 13 yds to the COLO 31 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 8:16
1ST & 10
OWN 31
+6
59.0%
Shedeur Sanders pass complete to Xavier Weaver for 6 yds to the COLO 37Similar
Q3 8:16
2ND & 4
OWN 37
+3
57.3%
Shedeur Sanders pass complete to Michael Harrison for 3 yds to the COLO 40Similar
Q3 8:16
3RD & 1
OWN 40
+6
56.9%
Dylan Edwards run for 6 yds to the COLO 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 8:16
1ST & 10
OWN 46
0
56.2%
Shedeur Sanders pass incomplete to Michael HarrisonSimilar
Q3 8:16
2ND & 10
OWN 46
0
57.1%
Shedeur Sanders pass incomplete to Dylan EdwardsSimilar
Q3 8:16
3RD & 10
OWN 46
-17
58.2%
Shedeur Sanders sacked by Prince Dorbah for a loss of 17 yards to the COLO 29Similar
Q3 5:04
4TH & 27
OWN 29
0
64.0%
Mark Vassett punt for 55 yds, fair catch by Melquan Stovall at the ASU 16Similar
Q3 5:04
4TH & 27
OWN 29
0
64.0%
Mark Vassett punt for 55 yds, fair catch by Melquan Stovall at the ASU 8Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ASUDrive 17PUNT
8 plays · 11 yds · 3:5762% → 61%
Q3 5:04
1ST & 10
OWN 8
+4
62.1%
Kyson Brown run for 4 yds to the ASU 12Similar
Q3 5:04
2ND & 6
OWN 12
+9
62.0%
Trenton Bourguet pass complete to Xavier Guillory for 9 yds to the ASU 21 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 5:04
1ST & 10
OWN 21
+2
62.5%
Kyson Brown run for 2 yds to the ASU 23Similar
Q3 5:04
2ND & 8
OWN 23
+8
62.4%
Trenton Bourguet pass complete to Melquan Stovall for 8 yds to the ASU 31 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 5:04
1ST & 10
OWN 31
0
63.1%
Trenton Bourguet pass incomplete to Kyson BrownSimilar
Q3 5:04
2ND & 10
OWN 31
-5
62.8%
Trenton Bourguet sacked by Arden Walker for a loss of 5 yards to the ASU 26Similar
Q3 5:04
3RD & 15
OWN 26
-7
60.7%
Trenton Bourguet sacked by LaVonta Bentley for a loss of 7 yards to the ASU 19Similar
Q3 1:07
4TH & 22
OWN 19
0
60.9%
Ian Hershey punt for 42 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the COLO 39Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
COLODrive 18TD
7 plays · 61 yds · 1:3538% → 69%
Q3 1:07
1ST & 10
OWN 39
+7
61.6%
Shedeur Sanders pass complete to Michael Harrison for 7 yds to the COLO 46Similar
Q3 1:07
2ND & 3
OWN 46
+12
59.5%
Shedeur Sanders run for 12 yds to the ASU 42 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 1:07
1ST & 10
OPP 42
+15
58.7%
Arizona State Penalty, Personal Foul (Caleb McCullough) to the ASU 22 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 0:00
1ST & 10
OPP 22
0
57.4%
Shedeur Sanders pass incomplete to Omarion MillerSimilar
Q4 15:00
2ND & 10
OPP 22
+13
57.6%
Anthony Hankerson run for 13 yds to the ASU 9 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 15:00
1ST & GOAL
OPP 9
0
57.4%
Shedeur Sanders pass incomplete to Xavier WeaverSimilar
Q4 14:32
2ND & GOAL
OPP 9
+9
31.2%
Shedeur Sanders pass complete to Javon Antonio for 9 yds for a TD (Alejandro Mata KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ASUDrive 19PUNT
6 plays · 2 yds · 2:2541% → 38%
Q4 14:32
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+8
41.0%
Trenton Bourguet pass complete to Elijhah Badger for 8 yds to the ASU 33Similar
Q4 14:32
2ND & 2
OWN 33
-4
43.8%
Trenton Bourguet sacked by Derrick McLendon for a loss of 4 yards to the ASU 29Similar
Q4 14:32
3RD & 6
OWN 29
+3
40.2%
Cameron Skattebo run for 3 yds to the ASU 32Similar
Q4 14:32
4TH & 3
OWN 32
-5
39.9%
PENALTY ASU False Start (Iheanachor,Max) 5 yards from ASU32 to ASU27. NO PLAY.Similar
Q4 12:07
4TH & 8
OWN 27
+51
37.7%
Ian Hershey punt for 49 yds , Xavier Weaver returns for 51 yds to the ASU 25Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
COLODrive 20FG
4 plays · 1 yds · 1:5470% → 78%
Q4 12:07
1ST & 10
OPP 25
-11
30.0%
Shedeur Sanders sacked by B.J. Green II for a loss of 11 yards to the ASU 36Similar
Q4 12:07
2ND & 21
OPP 36
+6
31.5%
Anthony Hankerson run for 6 yds to the ASU 30Similar
Q4 12:07
3RD & 15
OPP 30
+6
32.7%
Shedeur Sanders pass complete to Anthony Hankerson for 6 yds to the ASU 24Similar
Q4 10:13
4TH & 9
OPP 24
+42
22.5%
Alejandro Mata 42 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ASUDrive 21MISSED FG
10 plays · 31 yds · 3:4129% → 23%
Q4 10:13
1ST & 10
OWN 35
+26
28.5%
Trenton Bourguet pass complete to Xavier Guillory for 26 yds to the COLO 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 10:13
1ST & 10
OPP 39
+5
33.2%
Trenton Bourguet pass complete to Elijhah Badger for 5 yds to the COLO 34Similar
Q4 10:13
2ND & 5
OPP 34
+1
35.9%
Cameron Skattebo run for 1 yd to the COLO 33Similar
Q4 10:13
3RD & 4
OPP 33
+2
33.3%
Cameron Skattebo run for 2 yds to the COLO 31Similar
Q4 10:13
4TH & 2
OPP 31
+4
31.3%
Cameron Skattebo run for 4 yds to the COLO 27 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 10:13
1ST & 10
OPP 27
-7
35.9%
Trenton Bourguet sacked by Myles Slusher for a loss of 7 yards to the COLO 34Similar
Q4 10:13
2ND & 17
OPP 34
0
33.0%
Trenton Bourguet pass incomplete to Kaleb BlackSimilar
Q4 10:13
3RD & 17
OPP 34
0
30.1%
Trenton Bourguet pass incomplete to Elijhah BadgerSimilar
Q4 6:32
4TH & 17
OPP 34
+52
22.7%
Dario Longhetto 52 yd FG BLOCKED blocked by Carter StoutmireSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
COLODrive 22PUNT
10 plays · 21 yds · 3:0681% → 87%
Q4 6:32
1ST & 10
OWN 34
+10
19.1%
Shedeur Sanders pass complete to Javon Antonio for 10 yds to the COLO 44 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 6:32
1ST & 10
OWN 44
+3
17.1%
Dylan Edwards run for 3 yds to the COLO 47Similar
Q4 6:32
2ND & 7
OWN 47
+3
17.0%
Shedeur Sanders run for 3 yds to the COLO 44Similar
Q4 6:32
3RD & 10
OWN 44
+12
17.8%
Shedeur Sanders pass complete to Javon Antonio for 12 yds to the ASU 44 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 6:32
1ST & 10
OPP 44
+3
16.2%
Dylan Edwards run for 3 yds to the ASU 41Similar
Q4 6:32
2ND & 7
OPP 41
+1
16.3%
Shedeur Sanders run for 1 yd to the ASU 40Similar
Q4 3:40
3RD & 6
OPP 40
0
11.9%
Shedeur Sanders pass incomplete to Anthony HankersonSimilar
Q4 3:40
4TH & 6
OPP 40
-5
13.6%
PENALTY CU Delay Of Game 5 yards from ASU40 to ASU45. NO PLAY.Similar
Q4 3:26
4TH & 11
OPP 45
0
13.1%
Mark Vassett punt for 39 yds, fair catch by Melquan Stovall at the ASU 6Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ASUDrive 23TD
15 plays · 94 yds · 2:3620% → 69%
Q4 3:26
1ST & 10
OWN 6
0
19.6%
Trenton Bourguet pass incomplete to Elijhah BadgerSimilar
Q4 3:26
2ND & 10
OWN 6
+3
19.2%
Trenton Bourguet pass complete to Cameron Skattebo for 3 yds to the ASU 9Similar
Q4 3:26
3RD & 7
OWN 9
+9
18.1%
Trenton Bourguet pass complete to Giovanni Sanders for 9 yds to the ASU 18 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 3:26
1ST & 10
OWN 18
+30
20.5%
Trenton Bourguet pass complete to Elijhah Badger for 30 yds to the ASU 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 3:26
1ST & 10
OWN 48
+5
24.3%
Trenton Bourguet pass complete to Bryce Pierre for 5 yds to the COLO 47Similar
Q4 3:26
2ND & 5
OPP 47
0
26.4%
Trenton Bourguet pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 3:26
3RD & 5
OPP 47
+6
25.3%
Trenton Bourguet pass complete to Giovanni Sanders for 6 yds to the COLO 41 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 3:26
1ST & 10
OPP 41
0
26.6%
Trenton Bourguet pass incomplete to Tevin WhiteSimilar
Q4 1:26
2ND & 10
OPP 41
+9
18.2%
Trenton Bourguet pass complete to Melquan Stovall for 9 yds to the COLO 32Similar
Q4 1:26
3RD & 1
OPP 32
0
22.5%
Trenton Bourguet pass incomplete to Elijhah BadgerSimilar
Q4 1:26
4TH & 1
OPP 32
+2
19.8%
Cameron Skattebo run for 2 yds to the COLO 30 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 1:26
1ST & 10
OPP 30
0
22.8%
Trenton Bourguet pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 1:26
2ND & 10
OPP 30
+15
22.1%
No Huddle-Shotgun Bourguet,Trenton pass incomplete short left to Sanders,Giovanni PENALTY CU Pass Interference (Bentley,LaVonta) 15 yards from CU 30 to CU 15, 1ST DOWN. NO PLAY.Similar
Q4 0:50
1ST & 10
OPP 15
+15
68.6%
Trenton Bourguet pass complete to Troy Omeire for 15 yds for a TD (Dario Longhetto KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
COLODrive 24FG
7 plays · 50 yds · 0:3848% → 94%
Q4 0:50
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+43
51.8%
Shedeur Sanders pass complete to Javon Antonio for 43 yds to the ASU 32 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 0:50
1ST & 10
OPP 32
+7
39.6%
Shedeur Sanders pass complete to Javon Antonio for 7 yds to the ASU 25Similar
Q4 0:50
2ND & 3
OPP 25
0
39.1%
Shedeur Sanders pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 0:50
3RD & 3
OPP 25
0
41.6%
Shedeur Sanders pass incomplete to Michael HarrisonSimilar
Q4 0:12
4TH & 3
OPP 25
+43
6.2%
Alejandro Mata 43 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ASUDrive 25END OF GAME
4 plays · 13 yds · 0:0917% → 12%
Q4 0:09
1ST & 10
OWN 17
-8
16.5%
Trenton Bourguet sacked by Amari McNeill for a loss of 8 yards to the ASU 9 Trenton Bourguet fumbled, recovered by ASU Max Iheanachor , return for 0 yardsSimilar
Q4 0:00
2ND & 18
OWN 9
+21
12.3%
Trenton Bourguet pass complete to Elijhah Badger for 21 yds to the ASU 30 for a 1ST downSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
TD · Q4 0:50
Trenton Bourguet pass complete to Troy Omeire for 15 yds for a TD (Dario Longhetto KICK)
+46.5
FG · Q4 0:12
Alejandro Mata 43 yd FG GOOD
-39.5
TD · Q4 14:32
Shedeur Sanders pass complete to Javon Antonio for 9 yds for a TD (Alejandro Mata KICK)
-26.2
YardLine · model v10Model estimate - not betting advice · Data provided by CollegeFootballData.com