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ARIZ

Arizona 41 at USC 43

USC
2023 · Week 6 · Oct 7, 2023 · Los Angeles Memorial Coliseum
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Win probability · USC
modelUSC aheadARIZ aheadconfidence bandkey playUSC scoreARIZ score
0%25%50%75%100%Q1Q2Q3Q4OTOT2OT3FGTDTDTDTDFGTDTDTDTDTDTDTDTDTDEnd of Game
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q4 6:22 · Eddie Czaplicki punt for 48 yds, downed at the ARIZ 21
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Pregame priorHome team on offenseScore differentialGarbage-time factorTime remainingScore diff ÷ offense timeouts
+42.0+21.00−21.0−42.0Q1Q2Q3Q4OTOT2OT3Play 149Pregame prior+5.9Home team on offense+0.0Score differential−1.1Garbage-time factor−1.4Time remaining−0.9Score diff ÷ offense timeouts+0.8
This game in five plays
  1. TD · Q4 8:17: Jacob Cowing 3 Yd pass from Noah Fifita (Noah Fifita Pass to Tetairoa McMillan for Two-Point Conversion) — ARIZ win probability +30.1 pts (now 45%) (top driver: ARIZ has the ball).
  2. TD · OT 0:00: Jacob Cowing 25 Yd pass from Noah Fifita (Tyler Loop Kick) — ARIZ win probability +34.8 pts (now 59%) (top driver: offense timeouts not recorded for this play).
  3. TD · OT2 0:00: Jacob Cowing 8 Yd pass from Noah Fifita (Two-Point Pass Conversion Failed) — ARIZ win probability +31.3 pts (now 90%) (top driver: ARIZ has the ball).
  4. TD · OT2 0:00: Austin Jones 11 Yd Run (Two-Point Pass Conversion Failed) — USC win probability +40.9 pts (now 66%) (top driver: offense timeouts not recorded for this play).
  5. TD · OT3 0:00: Caleb Williams Run for Two-Point Conversion — USC win probability +19.8 pts (now 85%) (top driver: USC has the ball).
Was that the right call?

Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works

Fourth downs
USC made the numbers' call on 5 of 5ARIZ made the numbers' call on 6 of 8
  1. Q1 13:31USC 4th & 12 at USC 23, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 90.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    90.6%−0.2
    22% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    90.8%
    average punt
  2. Q1 10:12ARIZ 4th & 6 at USC 6, tied
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 10.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    10.2%−<0.1
    31% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    10.3%
    91% to make
    Punt
    9.8%−0.5
    average punt
  3. Q1 9:20USC 4th & 7 at USC 28, down 3
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 89.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    89.2%−0.1
    36% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    89.3%
    average punt
  4. Q1 6:49ARIZ 4th & 1 at USC 45, up 3
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 11.7% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    11.7%
    70% to convert
    Field goal
    11.4%−0.3
    25% to make
    Punt
    11.5%−0.2
    average punt
  5. Q1 3:56USC 4th & 6 at USC 29, down 10
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 85.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    85.1%−0.1
    39% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    85.2%
    average punt
  6. Q2 6:12ARIZ 4th & 17 at ARIZ 46, up 10
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 27.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    26.3%−1.0
    14% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    27.3%
    average punt
  7. Q2 4:48USC 4th & 11 at USC 10, down 10
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 68.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    67.7%−1.0
    24% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    68.7%
    average punt
  8. Q2 2:52ARIZ 4th & 13 at ARIZ 37, up 10
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 30.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    30.0%−0.8
    20% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    30.8%
    average punt
  9. Q3 10:20ARIZ 4th & 4 at USC 5, up 3
    Close callKicked a field goal · 31.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    30.8%
    40% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    30.1%−0.6
    92% to make
    Punt
    21.4%−9.4
    average punt
  10. Q3 3:23ARIZ 4th & 8 at ARIZ 44, down 1
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 24.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    23.9%−1.5
    34% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    25.4%
    average punt
  11. Q4 8:17ARIZ 4th & 3 at USC 3, down 8
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 12.4% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    15.3%
    44% to convert
    Field goal
    12.5%−2.8
    93% to make
    Punt
    1.6%−13.7
    average punt
  12. Q4 6:22USC 4th & 14 at USC 31, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 59.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    51.4%−11.2
    18% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    62.6%
    average punt
  13. Q4 2:08ARIZ 4th & 7 at USC 33, tied
    Close callKicked a field goal · 49.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    47.3%
    37% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    46.6%−0.7
    49% to make
    Punt
    39.2%−8.0
    average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
USC made the numbers' call on 4 of 4ARIZ made the numbers' call on 3 of 3
  1. Q1 4:59ARIZ Touchdown, up 9 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    13.7%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    13.7%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  2. Q2 13:05ARIZ Touchdown, up 16 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    25.3%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    25.2%−0.1
    45% to convert
  3. Q2 9:43USC Touchdown, down 11 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    76.5%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    76.5%−0.1
    45% to convert
  4. Q2 0:02USC Touchdown, down 4 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    73.9%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    73.7%−0.1
    45% to convert
  5. Q3 5:44USC Touchdown, tied before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    73.0%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    72.8%−0.2
    45% to convert
  6. Q4 12:54USC Touchdown, up 7 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    87.9%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    87.5%−0.3
    45% to convert
  7. Q4 8:17ARIZ Touchdown, down 2 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersWent for two · converted
    Kick
    30.8%−0.6
    97% to make
    Go for twoTheir call
    31.4%
    45% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chart
USCDrive 1PUNT
6 plays · -2 yds · 1:2492% → 91%
Q1 14:55
1ST & 10
OWN 25
0
91.7%
Caleb Williams pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 14:46
2ND & 10
OWN 25
+2
91.6%
MarShawn Lloyd run for 2 yds to the USC 27Similar
Q1 14:12
3RD & 8
OWN 27
+1
91.5%
Caleb Williams run for 1 yd to the USC 28Similar
Q1 14:00
4TH & 7
OWN 28
-5
91.4%
USC Penalty, False Start (-5 Yards) to the USC 23Similar
Q1 13:31
4TH & 12
OWN 23
0
91.3%
Eddie Czaplicki punt for 43 yds, downed at the ARIZ 34Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ARIZDrive 2FG
8 plays · 60 yds · 3:039% → 10%
Q1 13:15
1ST & 10
OWN 34
+30
91.2%
Noah Fifita pass complete to Tetairoa McMillan for 30 yds to the USC 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 12:55
1ST & 10
OPP 36
+3
91.1%
Jonah Coleman run for 3 yds to the USC 33Similar
Q1 12:35
2ND & 7
OPP 33
+7
90.9%
Jonah Coleman run for 7 yds to the USC 26 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 11:57
1ST & 10
OPP 26
+18
90.7%
DJ Williams run for 10 yds to the USC 16 for a 1ST down USC Penalty, Personal Foul (8 Yards) to the USC 8 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 11:22
1ST & GOAL
OPP 8
0
90.5%
Jonah Coleman run for no gain to the USC 8Similar
Q1 11:00
2ND & GOAL
OPP 8
+2
90.4%
Noah Fifita pass complete to Tanner McLachlan for 2 yds to the USC 6Similar
Q1 10:16
3RD & GOAL
OPP 6
0
90.2%
Noah Fifita pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 10:12
4TH & GOAL
OPP 6
+23
90.2%
Tyler Loop 23 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USCDrive 3PUNT
6 plays · 11 yds · 0:4090% → 90%
Q1 10:00
1ST & 10
OWN 17
+8
90.2%
Arizona Penalty, Defensive Pass Interference (Ephesians Prysock) to the USC 25 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 9:57
1ST & 10
OWN 25
0
90.2%
Caleb Williams pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 9:40
2ND & 10
OWN 25
+3
90.1%
Caleb Williams pass complete to Mario Williams for 3 yds to the USC 28Similar
Q1 9:29
3RD & 7
OWN 28
0
89.9%
Caleb Williams pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 9:20
4TH & 7
OWN 28
0
89.8%
Eddie Czaplicki punt for 36 yds, downed at the ARIZ 36Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ARIZDrive 4TD
10 plays · 64 yds · 4:1610% → 14%
Q1 9:15
1ST & 10
OWN 36
0
89.9%
Noah Fifita pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 9:02
2ND & 10
OWN 36
+2
89.8%
Noah Fifita pass complete to Jacob Cowing for 2 yds to the ARIZ 38Similar
Q1 8:25
3RD & 8
OWN 38
+8
89.6%
Noah Fifita pass complete to Tetairoa McMillan for 8 yds to the ARIZ 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 7:53
1ST & 10
OWN 46
+5
89.2%
Jonah Coleman run for 5 yds to the USC 49Similar
Q1 7:24
2ND & 5
OPP 49
0
88.9%
Noah Fifita pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 7:16
3RD & 5
OPP 49
+4
88.9%
Noah Fifita pass complete to Jacob Cowing for 4 yds to the USC 45Similar
Q1 6:49
4TH & 1
OPP 45
+2
89.0%
Jonah Coleman run for 2 yds to the USC 43 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 6:08
1ST & 10
OPP 43
+5
88.4%
DJ Williams run for 5 yds to the USC 38Similar
Q1 5:31
2ND & 5
OPP 38
+15
88.1%
DJ Williams run for 15 yds to the USC 23 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 4:59
1ST & 10
OPP 23
+23
86.3%
Jacob Cowing 23 Yd pass from Noah Fifita (Tyler Loop Kick)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USCDrive 5PUNT
5 plays · 4 yds · 1:0087% → 86%
Q1 4:56
1ST & 10
OWN 25
0
86.8%
Caleb Williams pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 4:48
2ND & 10
OWN 25
+4
86.7%
MarShawn Lloyd run for 4 yds to the USC 29Similar
Q1 4:08
3RD & 6
OWN 29
0
86.2%
Caleb Williams pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 3:56
4TH & 6
OWN 29
0
85.8%
Eddie Czaplicki punt for 55 yds , Jacob Cowing returns for no gain to the ARIZ 16 Arizona Penalty, Illegal Block (Martell Irby) to the ARIZ 8Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ARIZDrive 6TD
12 plays · 92 yds · 5:4914% → 26%
Q1 3:54
1ST & 10
OWN 8
-4
86.1%
DJ Williams run for a loss of 4 yards to the ARIZ 4Similar
Q1 3:12
2ND & 14
OWN 4
+8
85.7%
Noah Fifita pass complete to Tanner McLachlan for 8 yds to the ARIZ 12Similar
Q1 2:11
3RD & 6
OWN 12
+8
84.9%
Noah Fifita pass complete to Jacob Cowing for 8 yds to the ARIZ 20 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 1:51
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+7
84.4%
Jonah Coleman run for 7 yds to the ARIZ 27Similar
Q1 1:15
2ND & 3
OWN 27
+1
83.7%
DJ Williams run for 1 yd to the ARIZ 28Similar
Q1 0:33
3RD & 2
OWN 28
+4
83.4%
Jonah Coleman run for 4 yds to the ARIZ 32 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 14:50
1ST & 10
OWN 32
+2
82.6%
Noah Fifita pass complete to Jacob Cowing for 2 yds to the ARIZ 34Similar
Q2 14:21
2ND & 8
OWN 34
+9
82.3%
Noah Fifita pass complete to Tetairoa McMillan for 9 yds to the ARIZ 43 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 13:36
1ST & 10
OWN 43
+39
81.1%
Noah Fifita pass complete to Tetairoa McMillan for 39 yds to the USC 18 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 13:11
1ST & 10
OPP 18
0
80.5%
Noah Fifita pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 13:05
2ND & 10
OPP 18
+18
73.6%
Tanner McLachlan 18 Yd pass from Noah Fifita (Tyler Loop Kick)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USCDrive 7FUMBLE
5 plays · 41 yds · 1:0676% → 78%
Q2 12:56
1ST & 10
OWN 25
-10
75.5%
Caleb Williams sacked by Jacob Manu and Russell Davis II for a loss of 10 yards to the USC 15Similar
Q2 12:05
2ND & 20
OWN 15
+53
76.2%
Caleb Williams pass complete to Brenden Rice for 53 yds to the ARIZ 32 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 11:50
1ST & 10
OPP 32
-2
77.8%
Caleb Williams sacked by Isaiah Ward for a loss of 2 yards to the ARIZ 34 Caleb Williams fumbled, forced by Isaiah Ward, recovered by ARIZ Martell Irby , return for 0 yardsSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ARIZDrive 8INT
3 plays · -6 yds · 0:4522% → 23%
Q2 11:50
1ST & 10
OWN 34
-5
77.9%
Arizona Penalty, Substitution Infraction (-5 Yards) to the ARIZ 29Similar
Q2 11:34
1ST & 15
OWN 29
-1
77.7%
Jonah Coleman run for a loss of 1 yard to the ARIZ 28Similar
Q2 11:05
2ND & 16
OWN 28
-24
77.4%
Noah Fifita pass intercepted Jacobe Covington return for 24 yds to the ARIZ 12Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USCDrive 9TD
3 plays · 12 yds · 1:1777% → 80%
Q2 11:00
1ST & 10
OPP 12
+6
76.9%
Arizona Penalty, Face Mask (6 yards) (6 Yards) to the ARIZ 6 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 10:31
1ST & GOAL
OPP 6
+2
76.4%
MarShawn Lloyd run for 2 yds to the ARIZ 4Similar
Q2 9:43
2ND & GOAL
OPP 4
+4
79.9%
Caleb Williams 4 Yd Run (Denis Lynch Kick)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ARIZDrive 10PUNT
8 plays · 21 yds · 3:2522% → 27%
Q2 9:37
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+3
78.0%
Noah Fifita pass complete to Jonah Coleman for 3 yds to the ARIZ 28Similar
Q2 8:56
2ND & 7
OWN 28
-2
77.3%
Noah Fifita sacked by Jamil Muhammad for a loss of 2 yards to the ARIZ 26Similar
Q2 8:15
3RD & 9
OWN 26
+27
76.8%
Noah Fifita pass complete to Jonah Coleman for 27 yds to the USC 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 7:40
1ST & 10
OPP 47
-12
73.2%
Noah Fifita sacked by Jamil Muhammad for a loss of 12 yards to the ARIZ 41Similar
Q2 6:51
2ND & 22
OWN 41
0
73.0%
Noah Fifita pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 6:41
3RD & 22
OWN 41
+5
73.1%
Noah Fifita pass complete to Montana Lemonious-Craig for 5 yds to the ARIZ 46Similar
Q2 6:12
4TH & 17
OWN 46
0
73.2%
Kyle Ostendorp punt for 43 yds, fair catch by Michael Jackson III at the USC 11Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USCDrive 11PUNT
4 plays · -1 yds · 1:1673% → 71%
Q2 6:04
1ST & 10
OWN 11
+5
73.4%
Austin Jones run for 5 yds to the USC 16Similar
Q2 5:31
2ND & 5
OWN 16
-6
72.9%
Caleb Williams sacked by Russell Davis II for a loss of 6 yards to the USC 10Similar
Q2 4:54
3RD & 11
OWN 10
0
71.5%
Caleb Williams pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 4:48
4TH & 11
OWN 10
0
71.0%
Eddie Czaplicki punt for 50 yds, fair catch by Tetairoa McMillan at the ARIZ 40Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ARIZDrive 12PUNT
4 plays · -3 yds · 1:4331% → 31%
Q2 4:35
1ST & 10
OWN 40
+1
69.5%
DJ Williams run for 1 yd to the ARIZ 41Similar
Q2 3:59
2ND & 9
OWN 41
-4
68.8%
Noah Fifita sacked by Braylan Shelby for a loss of 4 yards to the ARIZ 37Similar
Q2 3:16
3RD & 13
OWN 37
0
69.3%
Noah Fifita run for no gain to the ARIZ 37Similar
Q2 2:52
4TH & 13
OWN 37
0
69.1%
Kyle Ostendorp punt for 28 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the USC 35Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USCDrive 13TD
8 plays · 65 yds · 2:3970% → 80%
Q2 2:41
1ST & 10
OWN 35
+9
69.8%
MarShawn Lloyd run for 9 yds to the USC 44Similar
Q2 2:05
2ND & 1
OWN 44
+21
70.3%
MarShawn Lloyd run for 21 yds to the ARIZ 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 1:45
1ST & 10
OPP 35
-5
70.5%
MarShawn Lloyd run for a loss of 5 yards to the ARIZ 40Similar
Q2 1:02
2ND & 15
OPP 40
+31
67.7%
Caleb Williams pass complete to Brenden Rice for 31 yds to the ARIZ 9 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:51
1ST & GOAL
OPP 9
-2
69.9%
Austin Jones run for a loss of 2 yards to the ARIZ 11Similar
Q2 0:13
2ND & 0
OPP 11
+6
70.7%
Arizona Penalty, Defensive Holding (Tacario Davis) to the ARIZ 5 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:02
1ST & GOAL
OPP 5
+5
79.5%
Kyron Hudson 5 Yd pass from Caleb Williams (Denis Lynch Kick)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ARIZDrive 14END OF HALF
3 plays · 31 yds · 0:0028% → 28%
Q2 0:00
1ST & 10
OWN 43
+31
72.5%
Noah Fifita pass complete to Tetairoa McMillan for 31 yds to the USC 26 for a 1ST downSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ARIZDrive 15FG
10 plays · 70 yds · 4:3326% → 37%
Q3 14:53
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+6
74.0%
Jonah Coleman run for 6 yds to the ARIZ 31Similar
Q3 14:22
2ND & 4
OWN 31
-5
72.6%
Arizona Penalty, False Start (Roberto Miranda) to the ARIZ 26Similar
Q3 13:49
2ND & 9
OWN 26
+21
73.1%
Noah Fifita pass complete to Tetairoa McMillan for 21 yds to the ARIZ 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 13:06
1ST & 10
OWN 47
+42
70.6%
Jonah Coleman run for 42 yds to the USC 11 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 12:31
1ST & 10
OPP 11
-3
68.6%
Jonah Coleman run for a loss of 3 yards to the USC 14Similar
Q3 11:50
2ND & 13
OPP 14
+4
68.5%
Noah Fifita run for 4 yds to the USC 10Similar
Q3 11:00
3RD & 9
OPP 10
+5
68.8%
Noah Fifita run for 5 yds to the USC 5Similar
Q3 10:20
4TH & 4
OPP 5
+22
62.6%
Tyler Loop 22 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USCDrive 16TD
11 plays · 75 yds · 4:1967% → 82%
Q3 10:03
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+11
66.7%
Caleb Williams run for 11 yds to the USC 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 9:26
1ST & 10
OWN 36
+20
66.9%
Caleb Williams run for 20 yds to the ARIZ 44 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 8:42
1ST & 10
OPP 44
+3
69.0%
MarShawn Lloyd run for 3 yds to the ARIZ 41Similar
Q3 8:01
2ND & 7
OPP 41
+4
68.3%
Mario Williams run for 4 yds to the ARIZ 37Similar
Q3 7:21
3RD & 3
OPP 37
-4
67.4%
Caleb Williams sacked by Justin Flowe for a loss of 4 yards to the ARIZ 41Similar
Q3 6:45
4TH & 7
OPP 41
+15
63.8%
Arizona Penalty, Defensive Pass Interference (Tacario Davis) to the ARIZ 26 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 6:37
1ST & 10
OPP 26
+5
68.2%
MarShawn Lloyd run for 5 yds to the ARIZ 21Similar
Q3 6:00
2ND & 5
OPP 21
0
67.6%
Caleb Williams pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 5:49
3RD & 5
OPP 21
+12
65.5%
Arizona Penalty, Roughing Passer (Justin Flowe) to the ARIZ 9 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 5:44
1ST & GOAL
OPP 9
+9
82.2%
MarShawn Lloyd 9 Yd Run (Denis Lynch Kick)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ARIZDrive 17PUNT
8 plays · 19 yds · 2:0923% → 24%
Q3 5:32
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+6
77.2%
DJ Williams run for 6 yds to the ARIZ 31Similar
Q3 5:18
2ND & 4
OWN 31
+2
75.9%
DJ Williams run for 2 yds to the ARIZ 33Similar
Q3 4:35
3RD & 2
OWN 33
+9
75.8%
Noah Fifita pass complete to Jacob Cowing for 9 yds to the ARIZ 42 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 3:49
1ST & 10
OWN 42
+2
73.6%
Jonah Coleman run for 2 yds to the ARIZ 44Similar
Q3 3:36
2ND & 8
OWN 44
0
73.2%
Noah Fifita pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 3:32
3RD & 8
OWN 44
0
74.5%
Noah Fifita pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 3:23
4TH & 8
OWN 44
+5
76.5%
Kyle Ostendorp punt for 38 yds , Michael Jackson III returns for 5 yds to the USC 23Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USCDrive 18TD
14 plays · 76 yds · 5:2177% → 92%
Q3 3:15
1ST & 10
OWN 23
+10
76.9%
Caleb Williams run for 10 yds to the USC 33 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 3:00
1ST & 10
OWN 33
0
77.2%
Caleb Williams pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 2:51
2ND & 10
OWN 33
+7
77.0%
Caleb Williams pass complete to Kyron Hudson for 7 yds to the USC 40Similar
Q3 2:41
3RD & 3
OWN 40
+9
77.9%
Caleb Williams pass complete to Tahj Washington for 9 yds to the USC 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 1:41
1ST & 10
OWN 49
+39
78.9%
Caleb Williams pass complete to Tahj Washington for 26 yds to the ARIZ 25 for a 1ST down Arizona Penalty, Personal Foul (13 Yards) to the ARIZ 12 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 1:35
1ST & 10
OPP 12
+3
80.5%
MarShawn Lloyd run for 3 yds to the ARIZ 9Similar
Q3 0:48
2ND & 7
OPP 9
0
80.2%
MarShawn Lloyd run for no gain to the ARIZ 9Similar
Q3 0:00
3RD & 7
OPP 9
+8
77.5%
Caleb Williams pass complete to Michael Jackson III for 8 yds to the ARIZ 1 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 15:00
1ST & 0
OPP 1
-4
80.1%
USC Penalty, False Start (Jude Wolfe) to the ARIZ 5Similar
Q4 14:52
1ST & GOAL
OPP 5
+1
78.8%
Austin Jones run for 1 yd to the ARIZ 4Similar
Q4 14:00
2ND & GOAL
OPP 4
+2
78.3%
MarShawn Lloyd run for 2 yds to the ARIZ 2Similar
Q4 13:10
3RD & 0
OPP 2
0
77.6%
Williams, Caleb rush for 1 yard to the ARIZONA1, PENALTY ARIZONA personal foul (Manoa, Tyler) 0 yards to the ARIZONA1, NO PLAY, 1ST DOWN USC.Similar
Q4 12:54
1ST & GOAL
OPP 1
+1
92.0%
Caleb Williams 1 Yd Run (Denis Lynch Kick)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ARIZDrive 19TD
12 plays · 75 yds · 4:2712% → 45%
Q4 12:44
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+6
88.4%
Noah Fifita run for 6 yds to the ARIZ 31Similar
Q4 12:11
2ND & 4
OWN 31
+42
87.6%
Jonah Coleman run for 27 yds to the USC 42 for a 1ST down USC Penalty, Face Mask (15 yards) (Calen Bullock) to the USC 27 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 12:00
1ST & 10
OPP 27
0
84.0%
Noah Fifita run for no gain to the USC 27 Noah Fifita fumbled, recovered by ARIZ Noah FifitaSimilar
Q4 11:11
2ND & 10
OPP 27
+7
84.4%
Noah Fifita pass complete to Montana Lemonious-Craig for 7 yds to the USC 20Similar
Q4 10:38
3RD & 3
OPP 20
+4
85.3%
Noah Fifita pass complete to Jacob Cowing for 4 yds to the USC 16 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 10:11
1ST & 10
OPP 16
+11
83.9%
Jonah Coleman run for 11 yds to the USC 5 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 9:55
1ST & GOAL
OPP 5
+4
84.9%
Jonah Coleman run for 4 yds to the USC 1Similar
Q4 9:32
2ND & GOAL
OPP 1
0
84.9%
Jonah Coleman run for no gain to the USC 1Similar
Q4 8:48
3RD & GOAL
OPP 1
-2
86.3%
DJ Williams run for a loss of 2 yards to the USC 3Similar
Q4 8:17
4TH & GOAL
OPP 3
+3
55.4%
Jacob Cowing 3 Yd pass from Noah Fifita (Noah Fifita Pass to Tetairoa McMillan for Two-Point Conversion)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USCDrive 20PUNT
9 plays · 6 yds · 1:4864% → 59%
Q4 8:10
1ST & 10
OWN 25
-10
64.2%
USC Penalty, Offensive Holding (Lake McRee) to the USC 15Similar
Q4 8:07
1ST & 20
OWN 15
+5
64.0%
Arizona Penalty, Defensive Offside (Tiaoalii Savea) to the USC 20Similar
Q4 8:01
1ST & 15
OWN 20
+15
63.6%
Arizona Penalty, Roughing Passer (Ta'ita'i Uiagalelei) to the USC 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 7:46
1ST & 10
OWN 35
+2
64.5%
MarShawn Lloyd run for 2 yds to the USC 37Similar
Q4 7:46
2ND & 8
OWN 37
-15
65.4%
USC Penalty, Unsportsmanlike Conduct (-15 Yards) to the USC 22Similar
Q4 7:21
2ND & 23
OWN 22
+9
62.2%
Caleb Williams pass complete to Austin Jones for 9 yds to the USC 31Similar
Q4 6:35
3RD & 14
OWN 31
0
59.6%
Caleb Williams pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 6:22
4TH & 14
OWN 31
0
58.7%
Eddie Czaplicki punt for 48 yds, downed at the ARIZ 21Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ARIZDrive 21MISSED FG
10 plays · 46 yds · 4:1045% → 52%
Q4 6:18
1ST & 10
OWN 21
0
55.5%
Noah Fifita pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 6:09
2ND & 10
OWN 21
+1
56.0%
Jonah Coleman run for 1 yd to the ARIZ 22Similar
Q4 5:32
3RD & 9
OWN 22
+15
57.1%
Noah Fifita run for 15 yds to the ARIZ 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 5:00
1ST & 10
OWN 37
+9
51.9%
Jonah Coleman run for 9 yds to the ARIZ 46Similar
Q4 4:40
2ND & 1
OWN 46
+7
47.7%
Jonah Coleman run for 7 yds to the USC 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 4:08
1ST & 10
OPP 47
+11
46.9%
DJ Williams run for 11 yds to the USC 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 3:41
1ST & 10
OPP 36
0
46.1%
Noah Fifita pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 3:21
2ND & 10
OPP 36
-1
45.7%
Jonah Coleman run for a loss of 1 yard to the USC 37Similar
Q4 2:52
3RD & 11
OPP 37
+4
47.0%
Noah Fifita pass complete to Jonah Coleman for 4 yds to the USC 33Similar
Q4 2:08
4TH & 7
OPP 33
+50
48.1%
Tyler Loop 50 yd FG MISSEDSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USCDrive 22MISSED FG
10 plays · 59 yds · 1:5659% → 65%
Q4 1:56
1ST & 10
OWN 33
0
58.9%
Austin Jones run for no gain to the USC 33Similar
Q4 1:26
2ND & 10
OWN 33
+26
57.9%
Caleb Williams pass complete to Tahj Washington for 26 yds to the ARIZ 41 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 0:50
1ST & 10
OPP 41
+6
64.4%
Caleb Williams pass complete to Brenden Rice for 6 yds to the ARIZ 35Similar
Q4 0:43
2ND & 4
OPP 35
+5
67.0%
MarShawn Lloyd run for 5 yds to the ARIZ 30 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 0:24
1ST & 10
OPP 30
+24
66.8%
MarShawn Lloyd run for 24 yds to the ARIZ 6 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 0:19
1ST & GOAL
OPP 6
0
66.7%
Caleb Williams pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 0:04
2ND & GOAL
OPP 6
-2
66.6%
Caleb Williams run for a loss of 2 yards to the ARIZ 8 Caleb Williams fumbled, recovered by USC Caleb WilliamsSimilar
Q4 0:00
3RD & 0
OPP 8
+25
65.2%
Denis Lynch 25 yd FG MISSEDSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USCDrive 23TD
3 plays · 25 yds · 0:0066% → 76%
OT 0:00
1ST & 10
OPP 25
0
65.6%
Caleb Williams pass incompleteSimilar
OT 0:00
2ND & 10
OPP 25
+7
65.4%
Caleb Williams pass complete to Austin Jones for 7 yds to the ARIZ 18Similar
OT 0:00
3RD & 3
OPP 18
+18
76.0%
Caleb Williams 18 Yd Run (Denis Lynch Kick)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ARIZDrive 24TD
1 play · 25 yds · 0:0059% → 59%
OT 0:00
1ST & 10
OPP 25
+25
41.1%
Jacob Cowing 25 Yd pass from Noah Fifita (Tyler Loop Kick)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ARIZDrive 25TD
6 plays · 25 yds · 0:0059% → 90%
OT2 0:00
1ST & 10
OPP 25
+5
41.1%
Jonah Coleman run for 5 yds to the USC 20Similar
OT2 0:00
2ND & 5
OPP 20
+3
41.1%
Tetairoa McMillan run for 3 yds to the USC 17Similar
OT2 0:00
3RD & 2
OPP 17
+6
43.3%
Noah Fifita run for no gain to the USC 11 Noah Fifita fumbled, recovered by ARIZ Jonah Coleman for a 1ST down Jonah Coleman run for 6 yds to the USC 11 for a 1ST downSimilar
OT2 0:00
1ST & 10
OPP 11
+4
41.1%
Noah Fifita pass complete to Jonah Coleman for 4 yds to the USC 7Similar
OT2 0:00
2ND & 6
OPP 7
+8
9.8%
Jacob Cowing 8 Yd pass from Noah Fifita (Two-Point Pass Conversion Failed)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USCDrive 26TD
5 plays · 25 yds · 0:0032% → 66%
OT2 0:00
1ST & 10
OPP 25
-10
31.7%
USC Penalty, Offensive Holding (-10 Yards) to the ARIZ 35Similar
OT2 0:00
1ST & 20
OPP 35
+6
26.0%
Caleb Williams pass complete to Brenden Rice for 6 yds to the ARIZ 29Similar
OT2 0:00
2ND & 14
OPP 29
-5
23.9%
USC Penalty, False Start (-5 Yards) to the ARIZ 34Similar
OT2 0:00
2ND & 19
OPP 34
+23
24.7%
Caleb Williams pass complete to Mario Williams for 23 yds to the ARIZ 11 for a 1ST downSimilar
OT2 0:00
1ST & 10
OPP 11
+11
65.6%
Austin Jones 11 Yd Run (Two-Point Pass Conversion Failed)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USCDrive 27TD
1 play · 0 yds · 0:0085% → 85%
OT3 0:00
1ST & GOAL
OPP 3
0
85.4%
Caleb Williams Run for Two-Point ConversionSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
TD · OT2 0:00
Austin Jones 11 Yd Run (Two-Point Pass Conversion Failed)
+40.9
TD · OT 0:00
Jacob Cowing 25 Yd pass from Noah Fifita (Tyler Loop Kick)
-34.8
TD · OT2 0:00
Jacob Cowing 8 Yd pass from Noah Fifita (Two-Point Pass Conversion Failed)
-31.3
YardLine · model v10Model estimate - not betting advice · Data provided by CollegeFootballData.com