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ORE

Oregon 42 at Stanford 6

STAN
2023 · Week 5 · Sep 30, 2023 · Stanford Stadium
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Win probability · STAN
modelSTAN aheadORE aheadconfidence bandkey playSTAN scoreORE score
0%25%50%75%100%Q1Q2Q3Q4FGFGTDTDTDTDTDTDEnd of Game
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q1 15:00 · Ashton Daniels run for 1 yd to the ORE 40 for a 1ST down
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Pregame priorHome team on offenseScore differentialGarbage-time factorScore diff ÷ offense timeoutsScore diff ÷ seconds remaining
+58.0+29.00−29.0−58.0Q1Q2Q3Q4Play 7Pregame prior−46.6Home team on offense+0.0Score differential+0.0Garbage-time factor+0.0Score diff ÷ offense timeouts+0.0Score diff ÷ seconds remaining+0.0
This game in five plays
  1. FG · Q1 7:18: Joshua Karty 37 yd FG GOOD — STAN win probability +2.1 pts (now 5%) (top driver: STAN has the ball).
  2. TD · Q2 8:15: Jordan James run for 30 yds for a TD (Camden Lewis KICK) — ORE win probability +2.7 pts (now 91%) (top driver: ORE has the ball).
  3. TD · Q2 2:23: Bucky Irving run for 17 yds for a TD (Camden Lewis KICK) — ORE win probability +3.4 pts (now 92%) (top driver: ORE has the ball).
  4. TD · Q3 10:43: Bo Nix pass complete to Terrance Ferguson for 10 yds for a TD (Camden Lewis KICK) — ORE win probability +2.5 pts (now 94%) (top driver: ORE has the ball).
  5. TD · Q3 8:54: Bo Nix pass complete to Troy Franklin for 46 yds for a TD (Camden Lewis KICK) — ORE win probability +3.0 pts (now 98%) (top driver: ORE has the ball).
Was that the right call?

Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works

Fourth downs
STAN made the numbers' call on 11 of 12ORE made the numbers' call on 3 of 3
  1. Q1 15:00STAN 4th & 1 at ORE 41, tied
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 5.6% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    5.6%
    70% to convert
    Field goal
    5.4%−0.2
    32% to make
    Punt
    5.4%−0.2
    average punt
  2. Q1 7:18STAN 4th & 17 at ORE 19, tied
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 8.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    8.0%−0.2
    13% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    8.2%
    77% to make
    Punt
    7.8%−0.4
    average punt
  3. Q1 5:55ORE 4th & 4 at ORE 31, down 3
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 90.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    90.7%−0.1
    48% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    90.7%
    average punt
  4. Q1 5:55STAN 4th & 2 at ORE 37, up 3
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 9.2% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    9.2%
    57% to convert
    Field goal
    9.0%−0.2
    40% to make
    Punt
    9.0%−0.2
    average punt
  5. Q2 14:55STAN 4th & 18 at ORE 35, up 3
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 11.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    11.7%−0.3
    13% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    12.0%
    45% to make
    Punt
    11.9%−0.2
    average punt
  6. Q2 13:30ORE 4th & 3 at ORE 32, down 6
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 85.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    85.5%−0.1
    52% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    85.6%
    average punt
  7. Q2 10:33STAN 4th & 15 at STAN 27, up 6
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 16.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    16.1%−1.0
    16% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    17.1%
    average punt
  8. Q2 6:25STAN 4th & 6 at STAN 29, down 1
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 14.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    14.7%−0.2
    39% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    14.9%
    average punt
  9. Q2 0:40STAN 4th & 2 at STAN 33, down 8
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 11.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    11.4%−0.4
    57% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    11.8%
    average punt
  10. Q3 10:43ORE 4th & 2 at STAN 10, up 8
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 87.5% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    87.4%
    55% to convert
    Field goal
    86.9%−0.6
    88% to make
    Punt
    83.5%−4.0
    average punt
  11. Q3 9:58STAN 4th & 4 at STAN 31, down 15
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 8.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    8.5%−0.4
    48% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    8.9%
    average punt
  12. Q3 4:02STAN 4th & 1 at ORE 27, down 22
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 2.9% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    2.8%
    71% to convert
    Field goal
    1.4%−1.4
    62% to make
    Punt
    -2.1%−4.9
    average punt
  13. Q4 14:14STAN 4th & 3 at ORE 41, down 29
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 0.5% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    0.5%
    52% to convert
    Field goal
    0.4%−0.1
    32% to make
    Punt
    0.4%−0.1
    average punt
  14. Q4 11:33STAN 4th & 4 at ORE 39, down 36
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 0.2% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    0.2%
    48% to convert
    Field goal
    0.2%−0.1
    36% to make
    Punt
    0.2%−0.1
    average punt
  15. Q4 4:15STAN 4th & 12 at ORE 35, down 36
    Close callWent for it · 0.1% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    0.1%−<0.1
    24% to convert
    Field goal
    0.2%
    45% to make
    Punt
    0.2%−<0.1
    average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
ORE made the numbers' call on 6 of 6
  1. Q2 8:15ORE Touchdown, tied before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    84.4%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    84.3%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  2. Q2 2:23ORE Touchdown, up 7 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    87.7%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    87.7%−0.1
    45% to convert
  3. Q3 10:43ORE Touchdown, up 14 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    91.6%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    91.5%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  4. Q3 8:54ORE Touchdown, up 21 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    96.4%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    96.3%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  5. Q3 1:43ORE Touchdown, up 28 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    99.4%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    99.4%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  6. Q4 11:33ORE Touchdown, up 35 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    99.9%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    99.9%−<0.1
    45% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chart
STANDrive 1FG
17 plays · 46 yds · 7:423% → 5%
Q1 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 35
+8
3.4%
Benjamin Yurosek run for 8 yds to the STAN 43Similar
Q1 15:00
2ND & 2
OWN 43
+1
3.4%
Sedrick Irvin run for 1 yd to the STAN 44Similar
Q1 15:00
3RD & 1
OWN 44
+6
3.4%
Justin Lamson run for 6 yds to the 50 yard line for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 15:00
1ST & 10
50
+8
3.4%
Justin Lamson pass complete to Mudia Reuben for 8 yds to the ORE 42Similar
Q1 15:00
2ND & 2
OPP 42
0
3.4%
Justin Lamson run for no gain to the ORE 42Similar
Q1 15:00
3RD & 2
OPP 42
+1
3.4%
Justin Lamson run for 1 yd to the ORE 41Similar
Q1 15:00
4TH & 1
OPP 41
+1
3.4%
Ashton Daniels run for 1 yd to the ORE 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 40
+3
3.4%
Ashton Daniels pass complete to E.J. Smith for 3 yds to the ORE 37Similar
Q1 15:00
2ND & 7
OPP 37
+6
3.4%
Ashton Daniels pass complete to Mudia Reuben for 6 yds to the ORE 31Similar
Q1 15:00
3RD & 1
OPP 31
+6
3.4%
Ashton Daniels run for 6 yds to the ORE 25 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 25
+5
3.4%
Oregon Penalty, Delay Of Game (Brandon Dorlus) to the ORE 20Similar
Q1 15:00
1ST & 5
OPP 20
-10
3.4%
IRVIN, Sedrick rush to the left for a gain of 1 yard to the ORE19 (JACKSON, Khyree). PENALTY STA Holding on YUROSEK, Benjamin enforced 10 yards from the ORE20 to the ORE30 [NHSG]. NO PLAY (replay the down).Similar
Q1 15:00
1ST & 15
OPP 30
+18
3.4%
Ashton Daniels pass complete to Elic Ayomanor for 18 yds to the ORE 12 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 12
+2
3.4%
Sedrick Irvin run for 2 yds to the ORE 10Similar
Q1 15:00
2ND & 8
OPP 10
0
3.4%
Ashton Daniels pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 15:00
3RD & 8
OPP 10
-9
3.4%
run for a loss of 9 yards to the ORE 19Similar
Q1 7:18
4TH & 17
OPP 19
+37
5.4%
Joshua Karty 37 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
OREDrive 2PUNT
4 plays · 6 yds · 1:2395% → 94%
Q1 7:18
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+1
5.5%
Bucky Irving run for 1 yd to the ORE 26Similar
Q1 7:18
2ND & 9
OWN 26
+5
5.5%
Bo Nix pass complete to Gary Bryant Jr. for 5 yds to the ORE 31Similar
Q1 7:18
3RD & 4
OWN 31
0
5.6%
Bo Nix pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 5:55
4TH & 4
OWN 31
0
6.2%
Ross James punt for 55 yds, downed at the STAN 14Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
STANDrive 3FG
13 plays · 51 yds · 6:006% → 9%
Q1 5:55
1ST & 10
OWN 14
+3
6.0%
Justin Lamson run for 3 yds to the STAN 17Similar
Q1 5:55
2ND & 7
OWN 17
0
6.0%
Justin Lamson pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 5:55
3RD & 7
OWN 17
+12
5.9%
Justin Lamson run for 12 yds to the STAN 29 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 5:55
1ST & 10
OWN 29
+12
6.0%
Justin Lamson pass complete to Mudia Reuben for 12 yds to the STAN 41 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 5:55
1ST & 10
OWN 41
+14
6.1%
Justin Lamson pass complete to Mudia Reuben for 14 yds to the ORE 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 5:55
1ST & 10
OPP 45
-8
6.2%
Justin Lamson sacked by Khyree Jackson for a loss of 8 yards to the STAN 47Similar
Q1 5:55
2ND & 18
OWN 47
+2
6.0%
Justin Lamson run for 2 yds to the STAN 49Similar
Q1 5:55
3RD & 16
OWN 49
+14
5.9%
Justin Lamson pass complete to Bryce Farrell for 14 yds to the ORE 37Similar
Q1 5:55
4TH & 2
OPP 37
+10
6.0%
Benjamin Yurosek run for 10 yds to the ORE 27 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 5:55
1ST & 10
OPP 27
-7
6.3%
Justin Lamson sacked for a loss of 7 yards to the ORE 34Similar
Q1 5:55
2ND & 17
OPP 34
-2
6.1%
Sedrick Irvin run for a loss of 2 yards to the ORE 36Similar
Q1 0:00
3RD & 19
OPP 36
+1
8.6%
Justin Lamson run for 1 yd to the ORE 35Similar
Q2 14:55
4TH & 18
OPP 35
+53
9.3%
Joshua Karty 53 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
OREDrive 4PUNT
4 plays · 7 yds · 1:2591% → 90%
Q2 14:55
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+4
9.3%
Bucky Irving run for 4 yds to the ORE 29Similar
Q2 14:55
2ND & 6
OWN 29
0
9.2%
Bo Nix pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 14:55
3RD & 6
OWN 29
+3
9.4%
Bo Nix pass complete to Bucky Irving for 3 yds to the ORE 32Similar
Q2 13:30
4TH & 3
OWN 32
0
10.5%
Ross James punt for 46 ydsSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
STANDrive 5PUNT
6 plays · 5 yds · 2:5711% → 12%
Q2 13:30
1ST & 10
OWN 22
+9
10.8%
Justin Lamson run for 9 yds to the STAN 31Similar
Q2 13:30
2ND & 1
OWN 31
+1
11.1%
Justin Lamson run for 1 yd to the STAN 32 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 13:30
1ST & 10
OWN 32
+1
10.9%
Justin Lamson run for 1 yd to the STAN 33Similar
Q2 13:30
2ND & 9
OWN 33
+1
10.8%
Justin Lamson run for 1 yd to the STAN 34Similar
Q2 13:30
3RD & 8
OWN 34
-7
10.6%
Ashton Daniels sacked by Evan Williams for a loss of 7 yards to the STAN 27Similar
Q2 10:33
4TH & 15
OWN 27
0
12.4%
Connor Weselman punt for 42 yds, fair catch by Tez Johnson at the ORE 31Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
OREDrive 6TD
7 plays · 69 yds · 2:1888% → 91%
Q2 10:33
1ST & 10
OWN 31
+4
12.2%
Bo Nix pass complete to Patrick Herbert for 4 yds to the ORE 35Similar
Q2 10:33
2ND & 6
OWN 35
+1
12.0%
Bucky Irving run for 1 yd to the ORE 36Similar
Q2 9:08
3RD & 5
OWN 36
+8
13.0%
Bo Nix run for 8 yds to the ORE 44 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 9:08
1ST & 10
OWN 44
+13
12.4%
Bo Nix pass complete to Troy Franklin for 13 yds to the STAN 43 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 9:08
1ST & 10
OPP 43
+13
12.0%
Jordan James run for 13 yds to the STAN 30 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 8:15
1ST & 10
OPP 30
+30
9.4%
Jordan James run for 30 yds for a TD (Camden Lewis KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
STANDrive 7PUNT
5 plays · 4 yds · 1:5011% → 11%
Q2 8:15
1ST & 10
OWN 25
-5
11.1%
Stanford Penalty, False Start (Benjamin Yurosek) to the STAN 20Similar
Q2 8:15
1ST & 15
OWN 20
+8
11.0%
Justin Lamson pass complete to Casey Filkins for 8 yds to the STAN 28Similar
Q2 8:15
2ND & 7
OWN 28
+2
11.1%
Justin Lamson pass complete to Tiger Bachmeier for 2 yds to the STAN 30Similar
Q2 8:15
3RD & 5
OWN 30
-1
10.8%
Casey Filkins run for a loss of 1 yard to the STAN 29Similar
Q2 6:25
4TH & 6
OWN 29
0
11.0%
Aidan Flintoft punt for 47 yds, fair catch by Gary Bryant Jr. at the ORE 24Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
OREDrive 8TD
10 plays · 76 yds · 4:0289% → 92%
Q2 6:25
1ST & 10
OWN 24
+6
10.9%
Bucky Irving run for 6 yds to the ORE 30Similar
Q2 6:25
2ND & 4
OWN 30
+15
10.5%
Bo Nix pass complete to Troy Franklin for 15 yds to the ORE 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 6:25
1ST & 10
OWN 45
+12
10.2%
Bo Nix pass complete to Troy Franklin for 12 yds to the STAN 43 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 6:25
1ST & 10
OPP 43
-2
10.0%
Bo Nix pass complete to Traeshon Holden for a loss of 2 yards to the STAN 45Similar
Q2 6:25
2ND & 12
OPP 45
+11
10.3%
Bo Nix pass complete to Troy Franklin for 11 yds to the STAN 34Similar
Q2 3:23
3RD & 1
OPP 34
+11
11.6%
Bucky Irving run for 11 yds to the STAN 23 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 3:23
1ST & 10
OPP 23
+6
11.2%
Bo Nix pass complete to Kenyon Sadiq for 6 yds to the STAN 17Similar
Q2 3:23
1ST & 10
OPP 17
+6
11.1%
IRVING, Bucky rush to the left for a gain of 6 yards to the STA17 (SLOCUM, Jaden), 1ST DOWN. PENALTY ORE Holding on JOHNSON, Tez STA Illegal use of the hands on SINCLAIR, Tristan , Offsetting penalties [NHSG]. NO PLAY (replay the down).Similar
Q2 2:23
2ND & 4
OPP 17
+17
7.7%
Bucky Irving run for 17 yds for a TD (Camden Lewis KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
STANDrive 9PUNT
5 plays · 8 yds · 1:439% → 9%
Q2 2:23
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+5
8.6%
Justin Lamson pass complete to Sam Roush for 5 yds to the STAN 30Similar
Q2 2:23
2ND & 5
OWN 30
+4
8.8%
Casey Filkins run for 4 yds to the STAN 34Similar
Q2 0:47
3RD & 1
OWN 34
-1
9.7%
Casey Filkins run for a loss of 1 yard to the STAN 33Similar
Q2 0:40
4TH & 2
OWN 33
0
9.3%
Connor Weselman punt for 42 ydsSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
OREDrive 10MISSED FG
9 plays · 55 yds · 0:4091% → 93%
Q2 0:40
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+7
9.2%
Bo Nix pass complete to Bucky Irving for 7 yds to the ORE 32Similar
Q2 0:40
2ND & 3
OWN 32
+9
8.8%
Bo Nix pass complete to Traeshon Holden for 9 yds to the ORE 41 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:40
1ST & 10
OWN 41
+13
8.4%
Bo Nix pass complete to Bucky Irving for 13 yds to the STAN 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:40
1ST & 10
OPP 46
0
8.0%
Bo Nix pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 0:40
2ND & 10
OPP 46
+10
8.1%
Bo Nix run for 10 yds to the STAN 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:40
1ST & 10
OPP 36
+11
7.8%
Bucky Irving run for 11 yds to the STAN 25 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:01
1ST & 10
OPP 25
+5
7.5%
Stanford Penalty, Delay Of Game (5 Yards) to the STAN 20Similar
Q2 0:00
1ST & 5
OPP 20
+38
7.4%
Camden Lewis 38 yd FG MISSEDSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
OREDrive 11TD
10 plays · 80 yds · 4:1791% → 94%
Q3 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+3
9.1%
Bucky Irving run for 3 yds to the ORE 23Similar
Q3 15:00
2ND & 7
OWN 23
+15
9.0%
Bo Nix pass complete to Troy Franklin for 15 yds to the ORE 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 38
0
8.4%
Bo Nix pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 15:00
2ND & 10
OWN 38
+1
8.5%
Bucky Irving run for 1 yd to the ORE 39Similar
Q3 15:00
3RD & 9
OWN 39
+25
8.7%
Bo Nix pass complete to Terrance Ferguson for 25 yds to the STAN 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 36
+18
8.2%
Bo Nix pass complete to Gary Bryant Jr. for 18 yds to the STAN 18 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 18
-1
8.1%
Jordan James run for a loss of 1 yard to the STAN 19Similar
Q3 15:00
2ND & 11
OPP 19
0
8.2%
Bo Nix run for no gain to the STAN 19Similar
Q3 15:00
3RD & 11
OPP 19
+9
8.4%
Bo Nix pass complete to Gary Bryant Jr. for 9 yds to the STAN 10Similar
Q3 10:43
4TH & 2
OPP 10
+10
5.9%
Bo Nix pass complete to Terrance Ferguson for 10 yds for a TD (Camden Lewis KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
STANDrive 12PUNT
4 plays · 6 yds · 0:457% → 7%
Q3 10:43
1ST & 10
OWN 25
0
6.7%
Justin Lamson pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 10:43
2ND & 10
OWN 25
+6
6.7%
Justin Lamson pass complete to Casey Filkins for 6 yds to the STAN 31Similar
Q3 10:43
3RD & 4
OWN 31
0
6.8%
Justin Lamson pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 9:58
4TH & 4
OWN 31
0
6.7%
Connor Weselman punt for 33 ydsSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
OREDrive 13TD
4 plays · 64 yds · 1:0495% → 98%
Q3 9:58
1ST & 10
OWN 36
+8
5.4%
Bucky Irving run for 8 yds to the ORE 44Similar
Q3 9:58
2ND & 2
OWN 44
+3
5.1%
Bucky Irving run for 3 yds to the ORE 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 9:58
1ST & 10
OWN 47
+7
5.1%
Bo Nix pass complete to Gary Bryant Jr. for 7 yds to the STAN 46Similar
Q3 8:54
2ND & 3
OPP 46
+46
2.2%
Bo Nix pass complete to Troy Franklin for 46 yds for a TD (Camden Lewis KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
STANDrive 14DOWNS
14 plays · 46 yds · 4:463% → 2%
Q3 8:48
1ST & 10
OWN 27
+1
3.1%
Sedrick Irvin run for 1 yd to the STAN 28Similar
Q3 8:48
2ND & 9
OWN 28
+9
3.1%
Justin Lamson pass complete to Elic Ayomanor for 9 yds to the STAN 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 8:48
1ST & 10
OWN 37
0
3.2%
Justin Lamson pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 7:09
2ND & 10
OWN 37
+4
2.5%
Justin Lamson run for 4 yds to the STAN 41Similar
Q3 7:09
3RD & 6
OWN 41
-5
2.6%
Stanford Penalty, False Start (Benjamin Yurosek) to the STAN 36Similar
Q3 7:09
3RD & 11
OWN 36
+16
2.4%
Justin Lamson pass complete to Casey Filkins for 16 yds to the ORE 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 7:09
1ST & 10
OPP 48
0
2.7%
Justin Lamson pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 7:09
2ND & 10
OPP 48
0
2.7%
Justin Lamson pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 7:09
3RD & 10
OPP 48
+12
2.6%
Justin Lamson pass complete to Elic Ayomanor for 12 yds to the ORE 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 7:09
1ST & 10
OPP 36
+1
2.7%
Casey Filkins run for 1 yd to the ORE 35Similar
Q3 7:09
2ND & 9
OPP 35
0
2.9%
Justin Lamson pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 7:09
3RD & 9
OPP 35
+8
2.7%
Justin Lamson run for 8 yds to the ORE 27Similar
Q3 4:02
4TH & 1
OPP 27
0
2.4%
Ryan Butler run for no gain to the ORE 27Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
OREDrive 15TD
7 plays · 73 yds · 2:1998% → 100%
Q3 4:02
1ST & 10
OWN 27
+12
1.6%
Bo Nix pass complete to Traeshon Holden for 12 yds to the ORE 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 4:02
1ST & 10
OWN 39
+2
1.6%
Bo Nix pass complete to Traeshon Holden for 2 yds to the ORE 41Similar
Q3 4:02
2ND & 8
OWN 41
+8
1.6%
Jordan James run for 8 yds to the ORE 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 4:02
1ST & 10
OWN 49
+1
1.6%
Jordan James run for 1 yd to the 50 yard lineSimilar
Q3 4:02
2ND & 9
50
+8
1.5%
Bo Nix pass complete to Terrance Ferguson for 8 yds to the STAN 42Similar
Q3 4:02
3RD & 1
OPP 42
+37
1.5%
Jordan James run for 37 yds to the STAN 5 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 1:43
1ST & GOAL
OPP 5
+5
0.4%
Bo Nix pass complete to Troy Franklin for 5 yds for a TD (Camden Lewis KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
STANDrive 16DOWNS
6 plays · 24 yds · 2:290% → 0%
Q3 1:43
1ST & 10
OWN 35
+2
0.4%
Casey Filkins run for 2 yds to the STAN 37Similar
Q3 1:43
2ND & 8
OWN 37
+15
0.4%
LAMSON, Justin pass deep to the left incomplete intended for AYOMANOR, Elic thrown to the ORE35. PENALTY ORE Pass Interference on REED, Nikko enforced 15 yards to the ORE48 and results in automatic 1ST DOWN [NHSG]. NO PLAY (replay the down).Similar
Q3 1:43
1ST & 10
OPP 48
+2
0.4%
Casey Filkins run for 2 yds to the ORE 46Similar
Q3 0:00
2ND & 8
OPP 46
+6
0.4%
Justin Lamson run for 6 yds to the ORE 40Similar
Q4 15:00
3RD & 2
OPP 40
-1
0.4%
Ryan Butler run for a loss of 1 yard to the ORE 41Similar
Q4 14:14
4TH & 3
OPP 41
0
0.3%
Justin Lamson pass incompleteSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
OREDrive 17TD
7 plays · 59 yds · 2:41100% → 100%
Q4 14:14
1ST & 10
OWN 41
+14
0.3%
Bucky Irving run for 14 yds to the STAN 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 14:14
1ST & 10
OPP 45
0
0.3%
Bo Nix pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 14:14
2ND & 10
OPP 45
+3
0.3%
Bo Nix pass complete to Traeshon Holden for 3 yds to the STAN 42Similar
Q4 14:14
3RD & 7
OPP 42
+8
0.4%
Bucky Irving run for 8 yds to the STAN 34 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 14:14
1ST & 10
OPP 34
+6
0.3%
Bo Nix pass complete to Terrance Ferguson for 6 yds to the STAN 28Similar
Q4 14:14
2ND & 4
OPP 28
+19
0.3%
Bo Nix pass complete to Gary Bryant Jr. for 19 yds to the STAN 9 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 11:33
1ST & GOAL
OPP 9
+9
0.2%
Bo Nix pass complete to Traeshon Holden for 9 yds for a TD (Camden Lewis KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
STANDrive 18DOWNS
13 plays · 32 yds · 7:180% → 0%
Q4 11:33
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+5
0.2%
E.J. Smith run for 5 yds to the STAN 30Similar
Q4 11:33
2ND & 5
OWN 30
+14
0.1%
E.J. Smith run for 14 yds to the STAN 44 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 11:33
1ST & 10
OWN 44
+5
0.2%
Justin Lamson run for 5 yds to the STAN 49Similar
Q4 11:33
2ND & 5
OWN 49
+3
0.1%
E.J. Smith run for 3 yds to the ORE 48Similar
Q4 11:33
3RD & 2
OPP 48
+3
0.2%
Justin Lamson run for 3 yds to the ORE 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 11:33
1ST & 10
OPP 45
+2
0.2%
E.J. Smith run for 2 yds to the ORE 43Similar
Q4 11:33
2ND & 8
OPP 43
0
0.2%
Justin Lamson pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 11:33
3RD & 8
OPP 43
+4
0.2%
E.J. Smith run for 4 yds to the ORE 39Similar
Q4 11:33
4TH & 4
OPP 39
+6
0.1%
Justin Lamson run for 6 yds to the ORE 33 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 11:33
1ST & 10
OPP 33
-3
0.2%
E.J. Smith run for a loss of 3 yards to the ORE 36Similar
Q4 11:33
2ND & 13
OPP 36
+6
0.2%
Casey Filkins run for 6 yds to the ORE 30Similar
Q4 11:33
3RD & 7
OPP 30
-5
0.2%
Justin Lamson sacked by Jerry Mixon for a loss of 5 yards to the ORE 35Similar
Q4 4:15
4TH & 12
OPP 35
-8
0.1%
Justin Lamson sacked by Brandon Dorlus for a loss of 8 yards to the ORE 43Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
OREDrive 19END OF GAME
7 plays · 22 yds · 4:15100% → 100%
Q4 4:15
1ST & 10
OWN 43
+5
0.1%
Jayden Limar run for 5 yds to the ORE 48Similar
Q4 4:15
2ND & 5
OWN 48
+5
0.1%
Jayden Limar run for 5 yds to the STAN 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 4:15
1ST & 10
OPP 47
+5
0.1%
Jayden Limar run for 5 yds to the STAN 42Similar
Q4 4:15
2ND & 5
OPP 42
+3
0.1%
Dante Dowdell run for 3 yds to the STAN 39Similar
Q4 4:15
3RD & 2
OPP 39
+8
0.1%
Ty Thompson pass complete to Kris Hutson for 8 yds to the STAN 31 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 4:15
1ST & 10
OPP 31
0
0.1%
[NHSG] Kneel down by ORE at STA33 (team loss of 2).Similar
Q4 0:00
2ND & 12
OPP 33
0
0.1%
[NHSG] Kneel down by ORE at STA35 (team loss of 2), clock 00:00.Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
TD · Q2 2:23
Bucky Irving run for 17 yds for a TD (Camden Lewis KICK)
-3.4
TD · Q3 8:54
Bo Nix pass complete to Troy Franklin for 46 yds for a TD (Camden Lewis KICK)
-3
TD · Q2 8:15
Jordan James run for 30 yds for a TD (Camden Lewis KICK)
-2.7
YardLine · model v10Model estimate - not betting advice · Data provided by CollegeFootballData.com