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USC

USC 48 at Colorado 41

COLO
2023 · Week 5 · Sep 30, 2023 · Folsom Field
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Win probability · COLO
modelCOLO aheadUSC aheadconfidence bandkey playCOLO scoreUSC score
0%25%50%75%100%Q1Q2Q3Q4TDTDTDTDTDTDTDTDTDTDTDTDTDEnd of Game
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q2 9:15 · Eddie Czaplicki punt for 44 yds for a touchback
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Pregame priorHome team on offenseScore differentialGarbage-time factorScore diff ÷ offense timeoutsScore diff ÷ seconds remaining
+47.5+23.80−23.8−47.5Q1Q2Q3Q4Play 58Pregame prior−38.4Home team on offense−11.4Score differential−4.9Garbage-time factor−2.9Score diff ÷ offense timeouts−1.7Score diff ÷ seconds remaining−0.5
This game in five plays
  1. TD · Q2 7:30: Caleb Williams pass complete to Mario Williams for 24 yds for a TD (Denis Lynch PAT MISSED) — USC win probability +3.1 pts (now 95%) (top driver: USC has the ball).
  2. TD · Q2 0:21: Shedeur Sanders run for 25 yds for a TD (Alejandro Mata KICK) — COLO win probability +5.3 pts (now 6%) (top driver: COLO has the ball).
  3. TD · Q3 5:50: Anthony Hankerson run for 2 yds for a TD (Alejandro Mata KICK) — COLO win probability +3.8 pts (now 5%) (top driver: COLO has the ball).
  4. TD · Q4 11:55: S. Sanders pass to O. Miller for 9 yds for a TD (A. Mata KICK) — COLO win probability +6.7 pts (now 9%) (top driver: COLO has the ball).
  5. TD · Q4 1:43: S. Sanders pass to J. Horn Jr. for 16 yds for a TD (A. Mata KICK) — COLO win probability +13.1 pts (now 16%) (top driver: COLO has the ball).
Was that the right call?

Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works

Fourth downs
COLO made the numbers' call on 7 of 8USC made the numbers' call on 5 of 5
  1. Q1 10:52COLO 4th & 10 at COLO 25, down 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 10.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    10.5%−0.1
    28% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    10.6%
    average punt
  2. Q1 9:20USC 4th & 10 at USC 41, up 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 88.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    88.9%−0.1
    29% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    89.0%
    average punt
  3. Q1 3:18COLO 4th & 9 at USC 23, down 7
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 12.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    12.7%−0.2
    30% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    12.9%
    70% to make
    Punt
    11.6%−1.3
    average punt
  4. Q2 9:15USC 4th & 11 at COLO 44, up 14
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 89.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    89.0%−0.4
    27% to convert
    Field goal
    88.7%−0.7
    27% to make
    PuntTheir call
    89.3%
    average punt
  5. Q2 8:13COLO 4th & 8 at COLO 22, down 14
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 10.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    10.5%−0.3
    32% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    10.9%
    average punt
  6. Q2 5:22COLO 4th & 12 at COLO 34, down 20
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 8.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    7.9%−0.5
    23% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    8.4%
    average punt
  7. Q3 13:14COLO 4th & 15 at COLO 30, down 20
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 8.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    7.7%−0.7
    16% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    8.4%
    average punt
  8. Q3 11:27USC 4th & 8 at USC 40, up 20
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 95.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    95.0%−0.4
    34% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    95.4%
    average punt
  9. Q3 10:05COLO 4th & 22 at COLO 8, down 20
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 6.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    5.0%−1.6
    7% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    6.6%
    average punt
  10. Q4 11:55COLO 4th & 5 at USC 9, down 21
    Close callWent for it · 2.5% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    2.3%−0.2
    36% to convert
    Field goal
    2.5%
    89% to make
    Punt
    0.6%−1.9
    average punt
  11. Q4 10:29USC 4th & 5 at USC 43, up 14
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 93.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    93.6%−0.2
    41% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    93.8%
    average punt
  12. Q4 8:58COLO 4th & 5 at USC 47, down 14
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 7.4% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    6.8%
    41% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    Punt
    6.5%−0.3
    average punt
  13. Q4 5:58USC 4th & 14 at COLO 22, up 14
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 95.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    94.2%−1.1
    17% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    95.4%
    72% to make
    Punt
    92.0%−3.4
    average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
COLO made the numbers' call on 5 of 6USC made the numbers' call on 7 of 7
  1. Q1 12:33USC Touchdown, up 6 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    89.7%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    89.7%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  2. Q1 2:30USC Touchdown, up 13 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    88.7%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    88.7%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  3. Q2 14:55USC Touchdown, up 20 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    91.5%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    91.5%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  4. Q2 12:59COLO Touchdown, down 15 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    11.0%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    10.9%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  5. Q2 7:30USC Touchdown, up 20 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · missed
    KickTheir call
    91.7%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    91.7%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  6. Q2 2:54USC Touchdown, up 26 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    97.5%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    97.4%−0.1
    45% to convert
  7. Q2 0:21COLO Touchdown, down 21 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    5.2%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    5.2%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  8. Q3 7:14USC Touchdown, up 26 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    99.3%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    99.3%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  9. Q3 5:50COLO Touchdown, down 21 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    3.1%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    3.1%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  10. Q3 2:14USC Touchdown, up 26 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    99.6%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    99.6%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  11. Q3 1:03COLO Touchdown, down 21 before the try
    Close callWent for two · failed
    Kick
    2.4%
    97% to make
    Go for twoTheir call
    2.3%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  12. Q4 11:55COLO Touchdown, down 15 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    6.4%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    6.3%−0.1
    45% to convert
  13. Q4 1:43COLO Touchdown, down 8 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    8.7%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    6.7%−1.9
    45% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chart
USCDrive 1TD
6 plays · 75 yds · 2:2794% → 94%
Q1 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+11
5.6%
Caleb Williams pass complete to Tahj Washington for 11 yds to the USC 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 36
+4
5.6%
Caleb Williams pass complete to Tahj Washington for 4 yds to the USC 40Similar
Q1 15:00
2ND & 6
OWN 40
-3
5.6%
MarShawn Lloyd run for a loss of 3 yards to the USC 37Similar
Q1 15:00
3RD & 9
OWN 37
+18
5.6%
Caleb Williams pass complete to Brenden Rice for 18 yds to the COLO 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 45
+18
5.6%
Caleb Williams pass complete to Lake McRee for 18 yds to the COLO 27 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 12:33
1ST & 10
OPP 27
+27
6.1%
MarShawn Lloyd run for 27 yds for a TD (Denis Lynch KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
COLODrive 2PUNT
4 plays · 0 yds · 1:416% → 7%
Q1 12:33
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+5
6.2%
Shedeur Sanders pass complete to Jimmy Horn Jr. for 5 yds to the COLO 30Similar
Q1 12:33
2ND & 5
OWN 30
-3
6.2%
Shedeur Sanders pass complete to Xavier Weaver for a loss of 3 yards to the COLO 27Similar
Q1 12:33
3RD & 8
OWN 27
-2
6.1%
Shedeur Sanders pass complete to Anthony Hankerson for a loss of 2 yards to the COLO 25Similar
Q1 10:52
4TH & 10
OWN 25
0
6.5%
Mark Vassett punt for 48 ydsSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USCDrive 3PUNT
5 plays · 14 yds · 1:3294% → 93%
Q1 10:52
1ST & 10
OWN 27
+14
6.5%
Caleb Williams pass complete to Kyron Hudson for 14 yds to the USC 41 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 10:52
1ST & 10
OWN 41
0
6.4%
Caleb Williams pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 10:52
2ND & 10
OWN 41
0
6.5%
Caleb Williams pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 10:52
3RD & 10
OWN 41
0
6.5%
run for no gain to the USC 41Similar
Q1 9:20
4TH & 10
OWN 41
0
7.0%
Eddie Czaplicki punt for 49 yds, downed at the COLO 10Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
COLODrive 4MISSED FG
19 plays · 67 yds · 6:027% → 9%
Q1 9:20
1ST & 10
OWN 10
+11
6.9%
Shedeur Sanders run for 11 yds to the COLO 21 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 9:20
1ST & 10
OWN 21
+4
6.9%
Dylan Edwards run for 4 yds to the COLO 25Similar
Q1 9:20
2ND & 6
OWN 25
+1
6.9%
Shedeur Sanders pass complete to Michael Harrison for 1 yd to the COLO 26Similar
Q1 9:20
3RD & 5
OWN 26
+5
6.9%
SANDERS, Shedeur pass to the left incomplete thrown to the COL33. PENALTY USC Offsides on ALEXANDER, Bear enforced 5 yards from the COL26 to the COL31 and results in a 1ST DOWN [NHSG]. NO PLAY (replay the down).Similar
Q1 9:20
1ST & 10
OWN 31
+5
6.9%
Shedeur Sanders pass complete to Xavier Weaver for 5 yds to the COLO 36Similar
Q1 9:20
2ND & 5
OWN 36
+4
7.0%
Shedeur Sanders pass complete to Xavier Weaver for 4 yds to the COLO 40Similar
Q1 9:20
3RD & 1
OWN 40
+2
7.0%
Anthony Hankerson run for 2 yds to the COLO 42 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 9:20
1ST & 10
OWN 42
+2
7.0%
Shedeur Sanders run for 2 yds to the COLO 44Similar
Q1 9:20
2ND & 8
OWN 44
+7
7.0%
Shedeur Sanders pass complete to Xavier Weaver for 7 yds to the USC 49Similar
Q1 9:20
3RD & 1
OPP 49
-5
7.1%
Colorado Penalty, False Start (Van Wells) to the COLO 46Similar
Q1 9:20
3RD & 6
OWN 46
-15
7.0%
SANDERS, Shedeur pass short to the left complete for 15 yards to EDWARDS, Dylan caught at the USC49 and advanced to the USC39, out of bounds. PENALTY COL Pass Interference on ANTONIO, Javon enforced 15 yards to the COL31 [NHSG]. NO PLAY (replay the down).Similar
Q1 9:20
1ST & 10
OPP 24
0
7.2%
Shedeur Sanders pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 9:20
2ND & 10
OPP 24
+1
7.2%
Anthony Hankerson run for 1 yd to the USC 23Similar
Q1 9:20
3RD & 9
OPP 23
0
7.1%
Shedeur Sanders pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 9:20
1ST & 10
OPP 44
+20
7.1%
Anthony Hankerson run for 20 yds to the USC 24 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 9:20
1ST & 10
OWN 46
+2
7.0%
Shedeur Sanders pass complete to Xavier Weaver for 2 yds to the COLO 48Similar
Q1 9:20
2ND & 8
OWN 48
+7
7.1%
Dylan Edwards run for 7 yds to the USC 45Similar
Q1 9:20
3RD & 1
OPP 45
+1
7.1%
run for 1 yd to the USC 44 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 3:18
4TH & 9
OPP 23
+41
8.6%
Jace Feely 41 yd FG MISSEDSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USCDrive 5TD
3 plays · 77 yds · 0:4892% → 93%
Q1 3:18
1ST & 10
OWN 23
0
8.4%
Caleb Williams pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 3:18
2ND & 10
OWN 23
+6
8.4%
Caleb Williams run for 6 yds to the USC 29Similar
Q1 2:30
3RD & 4
OWN 29
+71
7.1%
Caleb Williams pass complete to Tahj Washington for 71 yds for a TD (Denis Lynch KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
COLODrive 6INT
3 plays · 5 yds · 1:167% → 7%
Q1 2:30
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+1
7.2%
Sy'veon Wilkerson run for 1 yd to the COLO 26Similar
Q1 2:30
2ND & 9
OWN 26
+4
7.2%
Shedeur Sanders run for 4 yds to the COLO 30Similar
Q1 1:14
3RD & 5
OWN 30
0
7.4%
Shedeur Sanders pass interceptedSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USCDrive 7TD
4 plays · 22 yds · 1:1993% → 95%
Q1 1:14
1ST & 10
OPP 22
+1
7.0%
Caleb Williams pass complete to Mario Williams for 1 yd to the COLO 21Similar
Q1 1:14
2ND & 9
OPP 21
+10
7.0%
Caleb Williams pass complete to Dorian Singer for 10 yds to the COLO 11 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 0:00
1ST & 10
OPP 11
+3
7.1%
Austin Jones run for 3 yds to the COLO 8Similar
Q2 14:55
2ND & 7
OPP 8
+8
4.7%
Caleb Williams pass complete to Dorian Singer for 8 yds for a TD (Denis Lynch KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
COLODrive 8TD
7 plays · 75 yds · 1:565% → 9%
Q2 14:55
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+6
5.4%
Shedeur Sanders pass complete to Michael Harrison for 6 yds to the COLO 31Similar
Q2 14:55
2ND & 4
OWN 31
+2
5.5%
Shedeur Sanders run for 2 yds to the COLO 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 14:55
1ST & 10
OWN 35
+18
5.5%
Anthony Hankerson run for 18 yds to the USC 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 14:55
1ST & 10
OPP 47
0
5.7%
Shedeur Sanders pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 14:55
2ND & 10
OPP 47
+9
5.7%
Shedeur Sanders pass complete to Jimmy Horn Jr. for 9 yds to the USC 38Similar
Q2 14:55
3RD & 1
OPP 38
+8
5.8%
Dylan Edwards run for 8 yds to the USC 30 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 12:59
1ST & 10
OPP 30
+30
8.5%
Shedeur Sanders pass complete to Jimmy Horn Jr. for 30 yds for a TD (Alejandro Mata KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USCDrive 9PUNT
7 plays · 37 yds · 3:3893% → 92%
Q2 12:53
1ST & 10
OWN 19
+8
7.5%
Caleb Williams pass complete to Kyron Hudson for 8 yds to the USC 27Similar
Q2 12:53
2ND & 2
OWN 27
+12
7.4%
MarShawn Lloyd run for 12 yds to the USC 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 12:53
1ST & 10
OWN 39
+18
7.3%
MarShawn Lloyd run for 18 yds to the COLO 43 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 12:53
1ST & 10
OPP 43
+4
7.3%
MarShawn Lloyd run for 4 yds to the COLO 39Similar
Q2 12:53
2ND & 6
OPP 39
-8
7.2%
Caleb Williams sacked by Omarion Cooper for a loss of 8 yards to the COLO 47Similar
Q2 12:53
3RD & 14
OPP 47
+3
7.4%
MarShawn Lloyd run for 3 yds to the COLO 44Similar
Q2 9:15
4TH & 11
OPP 44
0
7.7%
Eddie Czaplicki punt for 44 yds for a touchbackSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
COLODrive 10PUNT
5 plays · 2 yds · 1:028% → 8%
Q2 9:15
1ST & 10
OWN 20
0
8.0%
Shedeur Sanders pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 9:15
2ND & 10
OWN 20
-5
8.0%
Colorado Penalty, False Start (Gerad Christian-Lichtenhan) to the COLO 15Similar
Q2 9:15
2ND & 15
OWN 15
+7
7.9%
Dylan Edwards run for 7 yds to the COLO 22Similar
Q2 9:15
3RD & 8
OWN 22
0
7.9%
Shedeur Sanders pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 8:13
4TH & 8
OWN 22
0
7.8%
punt blocked by blocked bySimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USCDrive 11TD
2 plays · 23 yds · 0:4392% → 95%
Q2 8:13
1ST & 10
OPP 23
-1
7.6%
MarShawn Lloyd run for a loss of 1 yard to the COLO 24Similar
Q2 7:30
2ND & 11
OPP 24
+24
4.6%
Caleb Williams pass complete to Mario Williams for 24 yds for a TD (Denis Lynch PAT MISSED)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
COLODrive 12PUNT
8 plays · 9 yds · 2:086% → 6%
Q2 7:30
1ST & 10
OWN 25
-1
6.3%
Dylan Edwards run for a loss of 1 yard to the COLO 24Similar
Q2 7:30
2ND & 11
OWN 24
+10
6.3%
Shedeur Sanders pass complete to Jimmy Horn Jr. for 10 yds to the COLO 34Similar
Q2 6:17
3RD & 1
OWN 34
+2
6.5%
Dylan Edwards run for 2 yds to the COLO 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 6:17
1ST & 10
OWN 36
0
6.6%
Shedeur Sanders pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 6:17
2ND & 10
OWN 36
-2
6.4%
Dylan Edwards run for a loss of 2 yards to the COLO 34Similar
Q2 6:17
3RD & 12
OWN 34
0
6.3%
Shedeur Sanders pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 5:22
4TH & 12
OWN 34
0
6.2%
Mark Vassett punt for 41 ydsSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USCDrive 13TD
7 plays · 73 yds · 2:2895% → 98%
Q2 5:22
1ST & 10
OWN 27
+13
4.6%
Caleb Williams pass complete to Brenden Rice for 13 yds to the USC 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 5:22
1ST & 10
OWN 40
+1
4.5%
Caleb Williams pass complete to Lake McRee for 1 yd to the USC 41Similar
Q2 5:22
2ND & 9
OWN 41
+9
4.5%
MarShawn Lloyd run for 9 yds to the 50 yard line for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 5:22
1ST & 10
50
+3
4.4%
MarShawn Lloyd run for 3 yds to the COLO 47Similar
Q2 5:22
2ND & 7
OPP 47
+10
4.4%
Caleb Williams pass complete to Michael Jackson III for 10 yds to the COLO 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 5:22
1ST & 10
OPP 37
+11
4.4%
Caleb Williams pass complete to Tahj Washington for 11 yds to the COLO 26 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 2:54
1ST & 10
OPP 26
+26
2.5%
Caleb Williams pass complete to Brenden Rice for 26 yds for a TD (Denis Lynch KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
COLODrive 14TD
11 plays · 83 yds · 2:283% → 6%
Q2 2:49
1ST & 10
OWN 17
+10
3.0%
Shedeur Sanders pass complete to Jimmy Horn Jr. for 10 yds to the COLO 27 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 2:49
1ST & 10
OWN 27
+5
3.3%
Shedeur Sanders pass complete to Xavier Weaver for 5 yds to the COLO 32Similar
Q2 2:49
2ND & 5
OWN 32
+7
3.5%
Shedeur Sanders run for 7 yds to the COLO 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 2:49
1ST & 10
OWN 39
+11
3.5%
Shedeur Sanders pass complete to Anthony Hankerson for 11 yds to the 50 yard line for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 1:12
1ST & 10
50
+3
2.1%
Anthony Hankerson run for 3 yds to the USC 47Similar
Q2 1:12
2ND & 7
OPP 47
+5
2.1%
Shedeur Sanders run for 5 yds to the USC 42Similar
Q2 1:12
3RD & 2
OPP 42
+8
2.3%
Dylan Edwards run for 8 yds to the USC 34 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:25
1ST & 10
OPP 34
+9
1.0%
Shedeur Sanders pass complete to Willie Gaines for 9 yds to the USC 25Similar
Q2 0:21
2ND & 1
OPP 25
+25
6.3%
Shedeur Sanders run for 25 yds for a TD (Alejandro Mata KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USCDrive 15END OF HALF
1 play · 12 yds · 0:0096% → 96%
Q2 0:00
1ST & 10
OWN 27
+12
3.6%
Caleb Williams pass complete to MarShawn Lloyd for 12 yds to the USC 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
COLODrive 16PUNT
5 plays · 5 yds · 1:466% → 6%
Q3 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+10
6.0%
Shedeur Sanders run for 10 yds to the COLO 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 35
0
6.1%
Shedeur Sanders pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 15:00
2ND & 10
OWN 35
+5
6.0%
Alton McCaskill run for 5 yds to the COLO 40Similar
Q3 15:00
3RD & 5
OWN 40
-10
6.3%
Shedeur Sanders sacked by Jamil Muhammad for a loss of 10 yards to the COLO 30Similar
Q3 13:14
4TH & 15
OWN 30
0
6.4%
Mark Vassett punt for 32 yds, downed at the USC 38Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USCDrive 17PUNT
6 plays · 2 yds · 1:4796% → 95%
Q3 13:14
1ST & 10
OWN 38
0
4.0%
MarShawn Lloyd run for no gain to the USC 38Similar
Q3 13:14
2ND & 10
OWN 38
-10
4.1%
WILLIAMS, Caleb pass to the right complete for 9 yards to SINGER, Dorian caught at the USC38 and advanced to the USC47 (WOODS, Trevor). PENALTY USC Illegal Block in the Back on MONHEIM, Jonah enforced 10 yards from the USC38 to the USC28 [NHSG]. NO PLAY (replay the down).Similar
Q3 13:14
2ND & 20
OWN 28
+6
4.3%
Caleb Williams run for 6 yds to the USC 34Similar
Q3 13:14
3RD & 14
OWN 34
+6
4.5%
Caleb Williams pass complete to Dorian Singer for 6 yds to the USC 40Similar
Q3 11:27
4TH & 8
OWN 40
0
3.8%
Eddie Czaplicki punt for 40 yds, fair catch by Jimmy Horn Jr. at the COLO 20Similar
Q3 11:27
1ST & 10
OWN 20
-10
5.1%
SANDERS, Shedeur pass short to the right incomplete intended for ANTONIO, Javon thrown to the COL25. PENALTY COL Holding on CHRISTIAN-LICHTENHAN, Gerard enforced 10 yards from the COL20 to the COL10 [NHSG]. NO PLAY (replay the down).Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
COLODrive 18PUNT
4 plays · -12 yds · 1:225% → 5%
Q3 11:27
1ST & 20
OWN 10
+5
5.1%
Shedeur Sanders pass complete to Michael Harrison for 5 yds to the COLO 15Similar
Q3 11:27
2ND & 15
OWN 15
0
5.0%
Shedeur Sanders pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 11:27
3RD & 15
OWN 15
-7
5.0%
Shedeur Sanders sacked by Romello Height for a loss of 7 yards to the COLO 8Similar
Q3 10:05
4TH & 22
OWN 8
0
4.9%
Mark Vassett punt for 48 ydsSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USCDrive 19TD
9 plays · 55 yds · 2:5197% → 99%
Q3 10:05
1ST & 10
OWN 45
0
3.3%
Caleb Williams pass complete to Tahj Washington for no gain to the USC 45Similar
Q3 9:10
2ND & 10
OWN 45
+11
3.0%
Caleb Williams pass complete to Michael Jackson III for 11 yds to the COLO 44 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 9:10
1ST & 10
OPP 44
+9
2.9%
Caleb Williams pass complete to Michael Jackson III for 9 yds to the COLO 35Similar
Q3 9:10
2ND & 1
OPP 35
-5
2.8%
USC Penalty, False Start (Justin Dedich) to the COLO 40Similar
Q3 9:10
2ND & 6
OPP 40
+28
2.8%
Caleb Williams pass complete to Mario Williams for 28 yds to the COLO 12 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 9:10
1ST & 10
OPP 12
+6
2.8%
MarShawn Lloyd run for 6 yds to the COLO 6Similar
Q3 9:10
2ND & 4
OPP 6
0
2.8%
Caleb Williams pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 7:14
3RD & 4
OPP 6
+6
1.0%
Caleb Williams pass complete to Brenden Rice for 6 yds for a TD (Denis Lynch KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
COLODrive 20TD
5 plays · 75 yds · 1:241% → 5%
Q3 7:14
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+65
0.9%
Shedeur Sanders pass complete to Omarion Miller for 65 yds to the USC 10 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 7:14
1ST & GOAL
OPP 10
+2
1.2%
Anthony Hankerson run for 2 yds to the USC 8Similar
Q3 7:14
2ND & GOAL
OPP 8
+3
1.2%
USC Penalty, Face mask (3 yards) (Tackett Curtis) to the USC 3 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 7:14
1ST & GOAL
OPP 2
0
1.1%
Shedeur Sanders pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 5:50
2ND & GOAL
OPP 2
+2
4.8%
Anthony Hankerson run for 2 yds for a TD (Alejandro Mata KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USCDrive 21TD
10 plays · 75 yds · 3:3697% → 99%
Q3 5:50
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+4
3.0%
Caleb Williams pass complete to Tahj Washington for 4 yds to the USC 29Similar
Q3 5:50
2ND & 6
OWN 29
0
2.9%
Caleb Williams pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 5:00
3RD & 6
OWN 29
+15
2.4%
WILLIAMS, Caleb pass deep to the right intercepted by MCCLAIN, Cormani at the COL45 intended for RICE, Brenden. McClain return for 0 yards to the COL45; QB hurried by DOMINECK, Jordan, out of bounds, clock 05:00. PENALTY COL Pass Interference on WARD, Rodrick enforced 15 yards to the USC44 and results in automatic 1ST DOWN [NHSG]. NO PLAY (replay the down).Similar
Q3 5:00
1ST & 10
OWN 44
+11
2.2%
Caleb Williams pass complete to Tahj Washington for 11 yds to the COLO 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 5:00
1ST & 10
OPP 45
0
2.1%
Caleb Williams pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 5:00
2ND & 10
OPP 45
+18
2.1%
Caleb Williams pass complete to Brenden Rice for 18 yds to the COLO 27 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 5:00
1ST & 10
OPP 27
+4
2.0%
MarShawn Lloyd run for 4 yds to the COLO 23Similar
Q3 5:00
2ND & 6
OPP 23
+18
2.0%
Caleb Williams pass complete to Kyron Hudson for 18 yds to the COLO 5 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 5:00
1ST & GOAL
OPP 5
+2
2.0%
Austin Jones run for 2 yds to the COLO 3Similar
Q3 2:14
2ND & GOAL
OPP 3
+3
0.7%
Caleb Williams pass complete to Jude Wolfe for 3 yds for a TD (Denis Lynch KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
COLODrive 22TD
5 plays · 75 yds · 1:111% → 3%
Q3 2:14
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+4
0.7%
Dylan Edwards run for 4 yds to the COLO 29Similar
Q3 2:14
2ND & 6
OWN 29
+6
0.6%
Dylan Edwards run for 6 yds to the COLO 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 2:14
1ST & 10
OWN 35
0
0.7%
Shedeur Sanders pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 2:14
2ND & 10
OWN 35
+44
0.6%
Shedeur Sanders pass complete to Omarion Miller for 44 yds to the USC 21 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 1:03
1ST & 10
OPP 21
+21
2.8%
Michael Harrison 21 Yd pass from Shedeur Sanders (Two-Point Pass Conversion Failed)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USCDrive 23INT
1 play · 0 yds · 0:0098% → 98%
Q3 0:53
1ST & 10
OWN 25
0
1.7%
Caleb Williams pass interceptedSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
COLODrive 24TD
11 plays · 61 yds · 3:582% → 9%
Q3 0:53
1ST & 10
OWN 39
+4
2.4%
Shedeur Sanders pass complete to Michael Harrison for 4 yds to the COLO 43Similar
Q3 0:53
2ND & 6
OWN 43
+8
2.5%
Anthony Hankerson run for 8 yds to the USC 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 0:00
1ST & 10
OPP 49
+9
2.4%
Shedeur Sanders pass complete to Xavier Weaver for 9 yds to the USC 40Similar
Q4 15:00
2ND & 1
OPP 40
+2
2.6%
Anthony Hankerson run for 2 yds to the USC 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 38
0
2.5%
Shedeur Sanders pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 15:00
2ND & 10
OPP 38
+7
2.4%
Shedeur Sanders pass complete to Michael Harrison for 7 yds to the USC 31Similar
Q4 15:00
3RD & 3
OPP 31
+17
2.6%
Jimmy Horn Jr. run for 17 yds to the USC 14 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 14
0
2.6%
Shedeur Sanders run for no gain to the USC 14Similar
Q4 15:00
2ND & 10
OPP 14
+3
2.6%
Anthony Hankerson run for 3 yds to the USC 11Similar
Q4 15:00
3RD & 7
OPP 11
+2
2.6%
Shedeur Sanders run for 2 yds to the USC 9Similar
Q4 11:55
4TH & 5
OPP 9
+9
9.2%
S. Sanders pass to O. Miller for 9 yds for a TD (A. Mata KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USCDrive 25PUNT
6 plays · 18 yds · 1:2694% → 96%
Q4 11:55
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+13
5.6%
Caleb Williams run for 13 yds to the USC 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 11:55
1ST & 10
OWN 38
+5
5.1%
Caleb Williams pass complete to Tahj Washington for 5 yds to the USC 43Similar
Q4 10:42
2ND & 5
OWN 43
0
3.8%
Caleb Williams pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 10:42
3RD & 5
OWN 43
0
4.0%
Caleb Williams pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 10:29
4TH & 5
OWN 43
0
4.2%
Eddie Czaplicki punt for 57 yds for a touchbackSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
COLODrive 26DOWNS
7 plays · 24 yds · 1:316% → 6%
Q4 10:29
1ST & 10
OWN 20
0
6.2%
Anthony Hankerson run for no gain to the COLO 20Similar
Q4 10:29
2ND & 10
OWN 20
+28
6.1%
Shedeur Sanders pass complete to Omarion Miller for 28 yds to the COLO 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 10:29
1ST & 10
OWN 48
0
7.1%
Shedeur Sanders pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 10:29
2ND & 10
OWN 48
0
7.1%
Shedeur Sanders pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 9:06
3RD & 10
OWN 48
+5
5.8%
Anthony Hankerson run for 5 yds to the USC 47Similar
Q4 8:58
4TH & 5
OPP 47
-9
6.2%
Shedeur Sanders sacked by De'jon Benton for a loss of 9 yards to the COLO 44Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USCDrive 27MISSED FG
7 plays · 22 yds · 3:0097% → 97%
Q4 8:58
1ST & 10
OPP 44
+2
3.1%
MarShawn Lloyd run for 2 yds to the COLO 42Similar
Q4 8:58
2ND & 8
OPP 42
+24
3.2%
Caleb Williams pass complete to Austin Jones for 24 yds to the COLO 18 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 8:58
1ST & 10
OPP 18
+1
3.1%
Austin Jones run for 1 yd to the COLO 17Similar
Q4 6:44
2ND & 9
OPP 17
0
2.8%
Caleb Williams pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 6:44
3RD & 9
OPP 17
-5
2.9%
Caleb Williams sacked by Derrick McLendon and Amari McNeill for a loss of 5 yards to the COLO 22Similar
Q4 5:58
4TH & 14
OPP 22
+38
3.1%
Denis Lynch 38 yd FG MISSEDSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
COLODrive 28TD
11 plays · 78 yds · 4:152% → 16%
Q4 5:58
1ST & 10
OWN 22
-2
1.9%
Dylan Edwards run for a loss of 2 yards to the COLO 20Similar
Q4 5:58
2ND & 12
OWN 20
+8
2.0%
Shedeur Sanders run for 8 yds to the COLO 28Similar
Q4 5:58
3RD & 4
OWN 28
+14
1.9%
Shedeur Sanders pass complete to Omarion Miller for 14 yds to the COLO 42 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 5:58
1ST & 10
OWN 42
+4
2.1%
Shedeur Sanders pass complete to Jimmy Horn Jr. for 4 yds to the COLO 46Similar
Q4 5:58
2ND & 6
OWN 46
+3
2.1%
Dylan Edwards run for 3 yds to the COLO 49Similar
Q4 5:58
3RD & 3
OWN 49
+15
2.1%
Shedeur Sanders pass complete to Omarion Miller for 15 yds to the USC 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 5:58
1ST & 10
OPP 36
0
2.2%
Anthony Hankerson run for no gain to the USC 36Similar
Q4 5:58
2ND & 10
OPP 36
+4
2.2%
Anthony Hankerson run for 4 yds to the USC 32Similar
Q4 5:58
3RD & 6
OPP 32
+21
2.4%
Shedeur Sanders pass complete to Omarion Miller for 21 yds to the USC 11 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 5:58
1ST & 10
OPP 11
-5
2.5%
Colorado Penalty, False Start (Jack Bailey) to the USC 16Similar
Q4 1:43
1ST & 15
OPP 16
+16
15.6%
S. Sanders pass to J. Horn Jr. for 16 yds for a TD (A. Mata KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USCDrive 29END OF GAME
3 plays · -7 yds · 1:4395% → 95%
Q4 1:43
1ST & 10
OWN 41
0
4.9%
[NH] Kneel down by WILLIAMS, Caleb at USC39 (team loss of 2).Similar
Q4 1:43
2ND & 12
OWN 39
0
5.1%
[NH] Kneel down by WILLIAMS, Caleb at USC36 (team loss of 3).Similar
Q4 0:00
3RD & 15
OWN 36
0
5.2%
[NH] Kneel down by WILLIAMS, Caleb at USC34 (team loss of 2), clock 00:00.Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
TD · Q4 1:43
S. Sanders pass to J. Horn Jr. for 16 yds for a TD (A. Mata KICK)
+13.1
TD · Q4 11:55
S. Sanders pass to O. Miller for 9 yds for a TD (A. Mata KICK)
+6.7
TD · Q2 0:21
Shedeur Sanders run for 25 yds for a TD (Alejandro Mata KICK)
+5.3
YardLine · model v10Model estimate - not betting advice · Data provided by CollegeFootballData.com