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ASU

Arizona State 21 at California 24

CAL
2023 · Week 5 · Sep 30, 2023 · California Memorial Stadium
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Win probability · CAL
modelCAL aheadASU aheadconfidence bandkey playCAL scoreASU score
0%25%50%75%100%Q1Q2Q3Q4TDTDFGTDFGFGTDTDEnd of Game
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q3 2:57 · Lachlan Wilson punt for 42 yds
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Pregame priorHome team on offenseGarbage-time factorScore diff ÷ offense timeoutsScore differentialBlowout margin
+28.0+14.00−14.0−28.0Q1Q2Q3Q4Play 125Pregame prior+8.7Home team on offense+10.2Garbage-time factor+4.5Score diff ÷ offense timeouts+2.2Score differential+2.5Blowout margin−0.9
This game in five plays
  1. TD · Q3 9:11: Sam Jackson V pass complete to Jeremiah Hunter for 21 yds for a TD (Mateen Bhaghani KICK) — CAL win probability +12.5 pts (now 85%) (top driver: CAL has the ball).
  2. FG · Q3 5:29: Dario Longhetto 24 yd FG GOOD — ASU win probability +5.8 pts (now 23%) (top driver: ASU has the ball).
  3. FG · Q3 0:44: Dario Longhetto 29 yd FG GOOD — ASU win probability +6.3 pts (now 29%) (top driver: ASU has the ball).
  4. TD · Q4 10:52: Jaydn Ott run for 2 yds for a TD (Mateen Bhaghani KICK) — CAL win probability +12.9 pts (now 92%) (top driver: CAL has the ball).
  5. TD · Q4 9:18: Trenton Bourguet 3 Yd Run (Elijhah Badger Pass to Trenton Bourguet for Two-Point Conversion) — ASU win probability +22.4 pts (now 37%) (top driver: Deficit strained by the offense's own timeouts).
Was that the right call?

Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works

Fourth downs
CAL made the numbers' call on 9 of 12ASU made the numbers' call on 11 of 11
  1. Q1 12:04ASU 4th & 9 at ASU 42, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 20.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    20.7%−0.1
    32% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    20.8%
    average punt
  2. Q1 10:35CAL 4th & 12 at CAL 34, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 78.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    78.5%−0.1
    23% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    78.6%
    average punt
  3. Q1 9:12ASU 4th & 4 at ASU 33, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 21.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    21.5%−0.1
    48% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    21.5%
    average punt
  4. Q1 6:10ASU 4th & 2 at ASU 45, down 7
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 20.3% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    20.4%
    57% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    Punt
    20.3%−0.1
    average punt
  5. Q2 12:16CAL 4th & 5 at CAL 45, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 74.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    74.8%−0.1
    41% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    74.8%
    average punt
  6. Q2 10:45ASU 4th & 10 at ASU 2, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 25.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    24.1%−1.2
    25% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    25.2%
    average punt
  7. Q2 8:18CAL 4th & 11 at ASU 20, tied
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 73.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    73.1%−0.6
    25% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    73.7%
    75% to make
    Punt
    71.1%−2.7
    average punt
  8. Q2 6:29ASU 4th & 1 at ASU 34, down 3
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 24.7% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    25.3%
    71% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    Punt
    24.2%−1.1
    average punt
  9. Q2 4:00ASU 4th & 1 at CAL 39, down 3
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 26.5% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    26.6%
    70% to convert
    Field goal
    24.2%−2.4
    36% to make
    Punt
    24.0%−2.6
    average punt
  10. Q2 3:01CAL 4th & 1 at CAL 48, up 3
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 74.8% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    75.2%
    70% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    Punt
    73.5%−1.6
    average punt
  11. Q2 1:26CAL 4th & 8 at ASU 47, up 3
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 73.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    72.8%−0.1
    34% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    72.9%
    average punt
  12. Q3 13:16CAL 4th & 5 at CAL 30, up 3
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 72.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    72.6%−0.5
    41% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    73.1%
    average punt
  13. Q3 11:12ASU 4th & 2 at ASU 31, down 3
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 26.3% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    27.4%
    57% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    Punt
    27.3%−0.1
    average punt
  14. Q3 5:29ASU 4th & 6 at CAL 6, down 10
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 16.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    15.8%−0.2
    31% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    16.0%
    91% to make
    Punt
    8.1%−7.9
    average punt
  15. Q3 2:57CAL 4th & 11 at CAL 38, up 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 80.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    80.1%−1.7
    26% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    81.8%
    average punt
  16. Q3 0:44ASU 4th & 7 at CAL 11, down 7
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 20.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    18.9%−0.7
    32% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    19.7%
    87% to make
    Punt
    9.3%−10.4
    average punt
  17. Q4 14:00CAL 4th & 10 at CAL 37, up 4
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 73.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    72.0%−2.6
    29% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    74.5%
    average punt
  18. Q4 12:48ASU 4th & 7 at ASU 30, down 4
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 25.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    24.9%−0.9
    36% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    25.8%
    average punt
  19. Q4 12:17CAL 4th & 2 at CAL 43, up 4
    Numbers favored go for it by 1.6 ptsPunted · 75.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    76.3%
    57% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    74.7%−1.6
    average punt
  20. Q4 3:20CAL 4th & 7 at ASU 25, up 3
    Close callWent for it · 81.4% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    79.5%−0.8
    36% to convert
    Field goal
    80.2%
    66% to make
    Punt
    64.7%−15.5
    average punt
  21. Q4 3:20CAL 4th & 7 at ASU 25, up 3
    Close callWent for it · 81.4% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    79.5%−0.8
    36% to convert
    Field goal
    80.2%
    66% to make
    Punt
    64.7%−15.5
    average punt
  22. Q4 2:50CAL 4th & 1 at ASU 1, up 3
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 85.2% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    81.8%
    59% to convert
    Field goal
    73.2%−8.6
    94% to make
    Punt
    53.3%−28.5
    average punt
  23. Q4 1:03ASU 4th & 4 at ASU 39, down 3
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 21.5% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    15.4%
    48% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    Punt
    9.7%−5.7
    average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
CAL made the numbers' call on 3 of 3ASU made the numbers' call on 1 of 2
  1. Q1 6:16CAL Touchdown, up 6 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    79.4%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    79.4%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  2. Q1 0:15ASU Touchdown, down 1 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    23.8%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    23.8%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  3. Q3 9:11CAL Touchdown, up 9 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    83.9%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    83.7%−0.1
    45% to convert
  4. Q4 10:52CAL Touchdown, up 10 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    89.3%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    89.2%−0.1
    45% to convert
  5. Q4 9:18ASU Touchdown, down 5 before the try
    Numbers favored kick by 1.0 ptsWent for two · converted
    Kick
    24.2%
    97% to make
    Go for twoTheir call
    23.1%−1.0
    45% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chart
ASUDrive 1PUNT
8 plays · 9 yds · 2:4322% → 23%
Q1 14:47
1ST & 10
OWN 33
+4
77.7%
Cameron Skattebo run for 4 yds to the ASU 37Similar
Q1 14:47
2ND & 6
OWN 37
+2
77.7%
Cameron Skattebo run for 2 yds to the ASU 39Similar
Q1 14:47
3RD & 4
OWN 39
+2
77.7%
Trenton Bourguet pass complete to Giovanni Sanders for 7 yds to the ASU 46 for a 1ST down Arizona State Penalty, False Start (Joey Ramos) to the ASU 41 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 14:47
1ST & 10
OWN 41
+1
77.7%
Cameron Skattebo run for 1 yd to the ASU 42Similar
Q1 14:47
2ND & 9
OWN 42
0
77.7%
Trenton Bourguet pass incomplete to Melquan StovallSimilar
Q1 14:47
3RD & 9
OWN 42
0
77.7%
Trenton Bourguet pass incomplete to Jalin ConyersSimilar
Q1 12:04
4TH & 9
OWN 42
0
77.1%
Josh Carlson punt for 35 ydsSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CALDrive 2PUNT
6 plays · 11 yds · 1:2977% → 77%
Q1 12:04
1ST & 10
OWN 23
0
77.1%
Sam Jackson V pass incomplete to Jeremiah HunterSimilar
Q1 12:04
2ND & 10
OWN 23
+13
77.1%
Sam Jackson V pass complete to Jeremiah Hunter for 13 yds to the CAL 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 12:04
1ST & 10
OWN 36
0
77.2%
Sam Jackson V pass incomplete to Jeremiah HunterSimilar
Q1 12:04
2ND & 10
OWN 36
+2
77.1%
Sam Jackson V pass complete to Jaydn Ott for 2 yds to the CAL 34Similar
Q1 12:04
3RD & 12
OWN 34
0
77.0%
Sam Jackson V pass incomplete to Trond GrizzellSimilar
Q1 10:35
4TH & 12
OWN 34
+14
76.5%
Lachlan Wilson punt for 53 yds , Melquan Stovall returns for 14 yds to the ASU 27Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ASUDrive 3PUNT
4 plays · 6 yds · 1:2323% → 24%
Q1 10:35
1ST & 10
OWN 27
+4
76.6%
Giovanni Sanders run for 4 yds to the ASU 31Similar
Q1 10:35
2ND & 6
OWN 31
+2
76.6%
Trenton Bourguet pass complete to Jalin Conyers for 2 yds to the ASU 33Similar
Q1 10:35
3RD & 4
OWN 33
0
76.7%
Trenton Bourguet pass incomplete to Jalin ConyersSimilar
Q1 9:12
4TH & 4
OWN 33
0
76.5%
Josh Carlson punt for 35 yds, fair catch by Jeremiah Hunter at the CAL 32Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CALDrive 4TD
7 plays · 68 yds · 2:5677% → 78%
Q1 9:12
1ST & 10
OWN 32
+9
76.5%
Jaydn Ott run for 9 yds to the CAL 41Similar
Q1 9:12
2ND & 1
OWN 41
+9
76.8%
Jaydn Ott run for 9 yds to the 50 yard line for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 9:12
1ST & 10
50
+31
76.9%
Sam Jackson V pass complete to Jeremiah Hunter for 31 yds to the ASU 19 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 9:12
1ST & 10
OPP 19
+16
77.0%
Jaivian Thomas run for 16 yds to the ASU 3 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 9:12
1ST & GOAL
OPP 3
0
77.0%
Jaydn Ott run for no gain to the ASU 3Similar
Q1 9:12
2ND & GOAL
OPP 3
+2
77.0%
Isaiah Ifanse run for 2 yds to the ASU 1Similar
Q1 6:16
3RD & GOAL
OPP 1
+1
78.4%
Isaiah Ifanse run for 1 yd for a TD (Mateen Bhaghani KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ASUDrive 5TD
14 plays · 75 yds · 5:5522% → 29%
Q1 6:10
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+8
77.9%
Cameron Skattebo run for 8 yds to the ASU 33Similar
Q1 6:10
2ND & 2
OWN 33
+4
77.5%
Cameron Skattebo run for 4 yds to the ASU 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 6:10
1ST & 10
OWN 37
0
77.7%
Trenton Bourguet pass incomplete to Elijhah BadgerSimilar
Q1 6:10
2ND & 10
OWN 37
0
77.8%
Cameron Skattebo run for no gain to the ASU 37Similar
Q1 6:10
3RD & 10
OWN 37
+8
78.1%
Trenton Bourguet pass complete to Giovanni Sanders for 8 yds to the ASU 45Similar
Q1 6:10
4TH & 2
OWN 45
+2
77.8%
Cameron Skattebo run for 2 yds to the ASU 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 6:10
1ST & 10
OWN 47
+34
77.4%
Trenton Bourguet pass complete to Melquan Stovall for 34 yds to the CAL 19 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 6:10
1ST & 10
OPP 19
+12
76.9%
Trenton Bourguet pass complete to Giovanni Sanders for 12 yds to the CAL 7 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 6:10
1ST & GOAL
OPP 7
+1
76.9%
Cameron Skattebo run for 1 yd to the CAL 6Similar
Q1 6:10
2ND & GOAL
OPP 6
+1
76.9%
Cameron Skattebo run for 1 yd to the CAL 5Similar
Q1 6:10
3RD & GOAL
OPP 5
+3
77.2%
California Penalty, Defensive Pass Interference (Patrick McMorris) to the CAL 2 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 6:10
1ST & GOAL
OPP 2
0
76.9%
Cameron Skattebo run for no gain to the CAL 2Similar
Q1 0:15
2ND & GOAL
OPP 2
+2
71.5%
Cameron Skattebo run for 2 yds for a TD (Dario Longhetto KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CALDrive 6PUNT
8 plays · 27 yds · 2:4474% → 73%
Q1 0:00
1ST & 10
OWN 18
+11
73.9%
Sam Jackson V pass complete to Jeremiah Hunter for 11 yds to the CAL 29 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 29
+5
74.0%
Jaydn Ott run for 5 yds to the CAL 34Similar
Q2 15:00
2ND & 5
OWN 34
+6
74.5%
Jaydn Ott run for 6 yds to the CAL 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 40
-5
74.7%
Sam Jackson V sacked by Dashaun Mallory for a loss of 5 yards to the CAL 35Similar
Q2 15:00
2ND & 15
OWN 35
+3
73.8%
Sam Jackson V run for 3 yds to the CAL 38Similar
Q2 15:00
3RD & 12
OWN 38
+7
73.6%
Sam Jackson V run for 7 yds to the CAL 45Similar
Q2 12:16
4TH & 5
OWN 45
0
73.0%
Lachlan Wilson punt for 53 ydsSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ASUDrive 7PUNT
4 plays · 0 yds · 1:3128% → 27%
Q2 12:16
1ST & 10
OWN 2
+1
72.5%
Cameron Skattebo run for 1 yd to the ASU 3Similar
Q2 12:16
2ND & 9
OWN 3
0
72.5%
Trenton Bourguet pass incomplete to Elijhah BadgerSimilar
Q2 12:16
3RD & 9
OWN 3
+1
73.1%
Cameron Skattebo run for 1 yd to the ASU 2Similar
Q2 10:45
4TH & 10
OWN 2
0
73.1%
Josh Carlson punt for 40 yds, fair catch by Jeremiah Hunter at the ASU 42Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CALDrive 8FG
8 plays · 22 yds · 2:2774% → 73%
Q2 10:45
1ST & 10
OPP 42
+11
74.4%
Jaydn Ott run for 11 yds to the ASU 31 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 10:45
1ST & 10
OPP 31
+9
74.8%
Sam Jackson V run for 9 yds to the ASU 22Similar
Q2 10:45
2ND & 1
OPP 22
0
74.8%
Sam Jackson V pass incomplete to Mavin AndersonSimilar
Q2 10:45
3RD & 1
OPP 22
+3
74.2%
Jaydn Ott run for 3 yds to the ASU 19 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 10:45
1ST & 10
OPP 19
0
74.8%
Sam Jackson V pass incomplete to Trond GrizzellSimilar
Q2 10:45
2ND & 10
OPP 19
+1
74.8%
Sam Jackson V run for 1 yd to the ASU 20Similar
Q2 10:45
3RD & 11
OPP 20
0
74.0%
Sam Jackson V pass incomplete to Isaiah IfanseSimilar
Q2 8:18
4TH & 11
OPP 20
+37
73.3%
Mateen Bhaghani 37 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ASUDrive 9DOWNS
10 plays · 36 yds · 4:1827% → 27%
Q2 8:18
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+2
73.3%
Trenton Bourguet pass complete to Kyson Brown for 2 yds to the ASU 27Similar
Q2 8:18
2ND & 8
OWN 27
+6
73.2%
Trenton Bourguet pass complete to Elijhah Badger for 6 yds to the ASU 33Similar
Q2 8:18
3RD & 2
OWN 33
+1
72.9%
Kyson Brown run for 1 yd to the ASU 34Similar
Q2 6:29
4TH & 1
OWN 34
+18
74.3%
Cameron Skattebo pass complete to Trenton Bourguet for 18 yds to the CAL 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 6:29
1ST & 10
OPP 48
+2
71.8%
Cameron Skattebo run for 2 yds to the CAL 46Similar
Q2 6:29
2ND & 8
OPP 46
0
71.8%
Cameron Skattebo run for no gain to the CAL 46Similar
Q2 6:29
3RD & 8
OPP 46
+7
72.3%
Trenton Bourguet pass complete to Xavier Guillory for 7 yds to the CAL 39Similar
Q2 4:00
4TH & 1
OPP 39
0
72.6%
Cameron Skattebo run for no gain to the CAL 39Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CALDrive 10PUNT
12 plays · 14 yds · 2:3475% → 74%
Q2 4:00
1ST & 10
OWN 39
0
74.8%
Sam Jackson V pass incomplete to Jeremiah HunterSimilar
Q2 4:00
2ND & 10
OWN 39
+7
74.6%
Sam Jackson V pass complete to Jeremiah Hunter for 7 yds to the CAL 46Similar
Q2 4:00
3RD & 3
OWN 46
+2
75.2%
Sam Jackson V pass complete to Jaydn Ott for 2 yds to the CAL 48Similar
Q2 3:01
4TH & 1
OWN 48
+3
73.5%
Jaydn Ott run for 3 yds to the ASU 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 3:01
1ST & 10
OPP 49
-17
75.1%
Sam Jackson V sacked by Caleb McCullough for a loss of 17 yards to the CAL 34Similar
Q2 2:26
2ND & 27
OWN 34
+1
72.4%
Jaydn Ott run for 1 yd to the CAL 33Similar
Q2 2:22
3RD & 28
OWN 33
+20
73.0%
Jaydn Ott run for 20 yds to the ASU 47Similar
Q2 1:26
4TH & 8
OPP 47
0
74.0%
Lachlan Wilson punt for 42 ydsSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ASUDrive 11FUMBLE
7 plays · 38 yds · 1:2623% → 26%
Q2 1:26
1ST & 10
OWN 5
0
77.2%
Trenton Bourguet pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 1:26
2ND & 10
OWN 5
+15
77.4%
Cameron Skattebo run for 15 yds to the ASU 20 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 1:26
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+8
76.5%
Trenton Bourguet pass complete to Jalin Conyers for 8 yds to the ASU 28Similar
Q2 1:26
2ND & 2
OWN 28
+17
75.6%
Trenton Bourguet pass complete to Elijhah Badger for 17 yds to the ASU 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 1:26
1ST & 10
OWN 45
+5
74.7%
Trenton Bourguet pass complete to Jalin Conyers for 5 yds to the 50 yard lineSimilar
Q2 1:26
2ND & 5
50
0
73.7%
Trenton Bourguet pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 0:00
3RD & 5
50
+7
73.6%
Trenton Bourguet run for 7 yds to the ASU 43 Trenton Bourguet fumbled, recovered by CAL Xavier CarltonSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CALDrive 12PUNT
6 plays · 5 yds · 1:4472% → 71%
Q3 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 25
0
72.3%
Jaydn Ott run for no gain to the CAL 25Similar
Q3 15:00
2ND & 10
OWN 25
0
72.1%
Sam Jackson V pass incomplete to Jaydn OttSimilar
Q3 15:00
3RD & 10
OWN 25
-12
71.0%
Shotgun Jackson V,Sam rush left for 33 yards gain to the ASU42, out of bounds at ASU42 PENALTY Cal Clipping (Session,T.J.) 12 yards from Cal25 to Cal13. NO PLAY.Similar
Q3 15:00
3RD & 22
OWN 13
+17
70.9%
Jaydn Ott run for 17 yds to the CAL 30Similar
Q3 13:16
4TH & 5
OWN 30
0
71.3%
Lachlan Wilson punt for 59 yds , Melquan Stovall returns for no gain to the ASU 10Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ASUDrive 13DOWNS
6 plays · 21 yds · 2:0428% → 27%
Q3 13:16
1ST & 10
OWN 10
0
72.0%
Trenton Bourguet pass incomplete to Giovanni SandersSimilar
Q3 13:16
2ND & 10
OWN 10
+13
72.2%
Trenton Bourguet pass complete to Jalin Conyers for 13 yds to the ASU 23 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 13:16
1ST & 10
OWN 23
0
71.8%
Trenton Bourguet pass complete to Giovanni Sanders for no gain to the ASU 23Similar
Q3 13:16
2ND & 10
OWN 23
+1
72.0%
Trenton Bourguet pass complete to Melquan Stovall for 1 yd to the ASU 22Similar
Q3 13:16
3RD & 11
OWN 22
+9
73.2%
Trenton Bourguet pass complete to Melquan Stovall for 9 yds to the ASU 31Similar
Q3 11:12
4TH & 2
OWN 31
0
72.6%
Cameron Skattebo run for no gain to the ASU 31Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CALDrive 14TD
5 plays · 31 yds · 2:0176% → 85%
Q3 11:12
1ST & 10
OPP 31
+2
75.7%
Jaydn Ott run for 2 yds to the ASU 29Similar
Q3 11:12
2ND & 8
OPP 29
-10
75.7%
No Huddle-Shotgun Jackson V,Sam rush middle for 16 yards gain to the ASU13, out of bounds at ASU13 PENALTY Cal Holding (Alberding,Asher) 10 yards from ASU29 to ASU39. NO PLAY.Similar
Q3 11:12
2ND & 18
OPP 39
+2
73.8%
Sam Jackson V run for 2 yds to the ASU 41Similar
Q3 11:12
3RD & 20
OPP 41
+20
72.6%
Sam Jackson V pass complete to Jack Endries for 20 yds to the ASU 21 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 9:11
1ST & 10
OPP 21
+21
85.1%
Sam Jackson V pass complete to Jeremiah Hunter for 21 yds for a TD (Mateen Bhaghani KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ASUDrive 15FG
11 plays · 71 yds · 3:3317% → 23%
Q3 9:02
1ST & 10
OWN 23
+2
83.1%
Cameron Skattebo run for 2 yds to the ASU 25Similar
Q3 9:02
2ND & 8
OWN 25
0
83.2%
Trenton Bourguet pass incomplete to Elijhah BadgerSimilar
Q3 9:02
3RD & 8
OWN 25
+66
83.9%
Trenton Bourguet pass complete to Cameron Skattebo for 66 yds to the CAL 9 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 9:02
1ST & GOAL
OPP 9
-5
80.0%
No Huddle-Shotgun Bourguet,Trenton pass incomplete short left to Badger,Elijhah PENALTY ASU Ineligible Downfield on Pass (Walden,Bram) 5 yards from Cal09 to Cal14. NO PLAY.Similar
Q3 9:02
1ST & GOAL
OPP 14
+2
80.4%
Cameron Skattebo run for 2 yds to the CAL 12Similar
Q3 9:02
2ND & GOAL
OPP 12
+2
80.4%
Trenton Bourguet pass complete to Cameron Skattebo for 2 yds to the CAL 10Similar
Q3 9:02
3RD & GOAL
OPP 10
+8
81.5%
Trenton Bourguet pass complete to Jalin Conyers for 8 yds to the CAL 2Similar
Q3 9:02
4TH & GOAL
OPP 2
0
82.1%
PENALTY Cal Encroachment (Long Jr.,Darius) 1 yard from Cal02 to Cal01. NO PLAY.Similar
Q3 5:34
4TH & GOAL
OPP 1
-5
82.5%
No Huddle-Shotgun Skattebo,Cam pass complete short middle to Badger,Elijhah for 1 yard to the Cal00 TOUCHDOWN nullified by penalty, clock 05:34 PENALTY ASU Illegal Substitution 5 yards from Cal01 to Cal06. NO PLAY. The previous play is under review.Similar
Q3 5:29
4TH & GOAL
OPP 6
+24
76.7%
Dario Longhetto 24 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CALDrive 16PUNT
9 plays · 13 yds · 2:3282% → 80%
Q3 5:29
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+9
81.9%
Sam Jackson V pass complete to Jaydn Ott for 9 yds to the CAL 34Similar
Q3 5:29
2ND & 1
OWN 34
0
82.8%
Sam Jackson V pass incomplete to Jeremiah HunterSimilar
Q3 5:29
3RD & 1
OWN 34
+5
82.0%
Jaydn Ott run for 5 yds to the CAL 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 5:29
1ST & 10
OWN 39
+1
83.1%
Jaydn Ott run for 1 yd to the CAL 38Similar
Q3 5:29
2ND & 11
OWN 38
0
82.7%
Sam Jackson V pass incomplete to Jeremiah HunterSimilar
Q3 5:29
3RD & 11
OWN 38
-5
81.7%
PENALTY Cal False Start (Endries,Jack) 5 yards from Cal38 to Cal33. NO PLAY.Similar
Q3 5:29
3RD & 16
OWN 33
+5
80.7%
Sam Jackson V pass complete to Isaiah Ifanse for 5 yds to the CAL 38Similar
Q3 2:57
4TH & 11
OWN 38
0
80.2%
Lachlan Wilson punt for 42 ydsSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ASUDrive 17FG
7 plays · 69 yds · 2:1321% → 29%
Q3 2:57
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+14
78.8%
Trenton Bourguet pass complete to Xavier Guillory for 14 yds to the ASU 34 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 2:57
1ST & 10
OWN 34
+52
78.1%
Trenton Bourguet pass complete to Elijhah Badger for 52 yds to the CAL 14 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 2:57
1ST & 10
OPP 14
+7
73.6%
Cameron Skattebo run for 7 yds to the CAL 7Similar
Q3 2:57
2ND & 3
OPP 7
+1
73.6%
Cameron Skattebo run for 1 yd to the CAL 6Similar
Q3 2:57
3RD & 2
OPP 6
0
75.4%
Trenton Bourguet pass incomplete to Giovanni SandersSimilar
Q3 2:57
4TH & 2
OPP 6
-5
76.9%
PENALTY ASU False Start (Fautanu,Leif) 5 yards from Cal06 to Cal11. NO PLAY.Similar
Q3 0:44
4TH & 7
OPP 11
+29
70.6%
Dario Longhetto 29 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CALDrive 18PUNT
8 plays · 12 yds · 1:4475% → 73%
Q3 0:44
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+4
74.9%
Isaiah Ifanse run for 4 yds to the CAL 29Similar
Q3 0:00
2ND & 6
OWN 29
+2
75.1%
Isaiah Ifanse run for 2 yds to the CAL 31Similar
Q4 15:00
3RD & 4
OWN 31
+6
74.2%
Sam Jackson V pass complete to Jeremiah Hunter for 6 yds to the CAL 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 37
0
75.9%
Sam Jackson V pass incomplete to Trond GrizzellSimilar
Q4 15:00
2ND & 10
OWN 37
0
75.5%
Sam Jackson V pass incomplete to Brian HightowerSimilar
Q4 15:00
3RD & 10
OWN 37
0
74.0%
Sam Jackson V pass incomplete to Monroe YoungSimilar
Q4 14:00
4TH & 10
OWN 37
+19
72.7%
Lachlan Wilson punt for 55 yds , Melquan Stovall returns for 19 yds to the ASU 27Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ASUDrive 19PUNT
4 plays · 3 yds · 1:1228% → 26%
Q4 14:00
1ST & 10
OWN 27
0
71.9%
Cameron Skattebo run for no gain to the ASU 27Similar
Q4 14:00
2ND & 10
OWN 27
+3
72.5%
Trenton Bourguet pass complete to Bryce Pierre for 3 yds to the ASU 30Similar
Q4 14:00
3RD & 7
OWN 30
0
73.1%
Trenton Bourguet pass incomplete to Cameron SkatteboSimilar
Q4 12:48
4TH & 7
OWN 30
0
74.4%
Josh Carlson punt for 35 yds, fair catch by Jeremiah Hunter at the CAL 35Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CALDrive 20PUNT
4 plays · 8 yds · 0:3175% → 75%
Q4 12:48
1ST & 10
OWN 35
0
75.1%
California Penalty, Ineligible Downfield on Pass (Yards) declinedSimilar
Q4 12:48
2ND & 10
OWN 35
0
74.8%
Sam Jackson V pass incomplete to Trond GrizzellSimilar
Q4 12:48
3RD & 10
OWN 35
+8
73.4%
Jaydn Ott run for 8 yds to the CAL 43Similar
Q4 12:17
4TH & 2
OWN 43
0
74.5%
Lachlan Wilson punt for 44 ydsSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ASUDrive 21INT
1 play · 0 yds · 0:0028% → 28%
Q4 12:06
1ST & 10
OWN 13
0
72.3%
Trenton Bourguet pass interceptedSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CALDrive 22TD
4 plays · 11 yds · 1:1479% → 92%
Q4 12:06
1ST & 10
OPP 11
-5
78.9%
PENALTY Cal False Start (Montgomery,Marquis) 5 yards from ASU11 to ASU16. NO PLAY.Similar
Q4 12:06
1ST & 15
OPP 16
+11
78.8%
Jaydn Ott run for 11 yds to the ASU 5Similar
Q4 12:06
2ND & 4
OPP 5
+3
78.9%
Jaydn Ott run for 3 yds to the ASU 2Similar
Q4 10:52
3RD & 1
OPP 2
+2
91.8%
Jaydn Ott run for 2 yds for a TD (Mateen Bhaghani KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ASUDrive 23TD
5 plays · 48 yds · 1:2313% → 37%
Q4 10:41
1ST & 10
OPP 48
+30
86.6%
Trenton Bourguet pass complete to Melquan Stovall for 30 yds to the CAL 18 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 10:41
1ST & 10
OPP 18
+10
85.3%
Trenton Bourguet pass complete to Cameron Skattebo for 10 yds to the CAL 8 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 10:41
1ST & GOAL
OPP 8
+5
85.3%
Cameron Skattebo run for 5 yds to the CAL 3Similar
Q4 9:18
2ND & GOAL
OPP 3
+3
62.9%
Trenton Bourguet 3 Yd Run (Elijhah Badger Pass to Trenton Bourguet for Two-Point Conversion)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CALDrive 24DOWNS
24 plays · 74 yds · 6:2875% → 88%
Q4 9:18
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+3
74.7%
Jaydn Ott run for 3 yds to the CAL 28Similar
Q4 9:18
2ND & 7
OWN 28
+7
74.7%
Jaydn Ott run for 7 yds to the CAL 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 9:18
1ST & 10
OWN 35
+6
75.1%
Jaydn Ott run for 6 yds to the CAL 41Similar
Q4 9:18
2ND & 4
OWN 41
+9
77.4%
Jaydn Ott run for 9 yds to the 50 yard line for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 9:18
1ST & 10
50
0
77.9%
Sam Jackson V pass incomplete to Trond GrizzellSimilar
Q4 9:18
2ND & 10
50
+6
77.3%
Jaydn Ott run for 6 yds to the ASU 44Similar
Q4 9:18
3RD & 4
OPP 44
+5
77.5%
Jaydn Ott run for 5 yds to the ASU 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 9:18
1ST & 10
OPP 39
+3
78.2%
Isaiah Ifanse run for 3 yds to the ASU 36Similar
Q4 9:18
2ND & 7
OPP 36
+8
78.2%
Isaiah Ifanse run for 8 yds to the ASU 28 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 9:18
1ST & 10
OPP 28
+4
79.2%
Isaiah Ifanse run for 4 yds to the ASU 24Similar
Q4 9:18
2ND & 6
OPP 24
-15
79.2%
California Penalty, Block Below Waist (-15 Yards) to the ASU 37Similar
Q4 9:18
2ND & 19
OPP 37
+5
76.5%
Jaydn Ott run for 5 yds to the ASU 32Similar
Q4 9:18
3RD & 14
OPP 32
+7
75.5%
Sam Jackson V pass complete to Brian Hightower for 7 yds to the ASU 25Similar
Q4 3:20
4TH & 7
OPP 25
0
81.0%
Sam Jackson V pass incomplete to Jeremiah HunterSimilar
Q4 3:20
4TH & 7
OPP 25
+15
81.0%
Sam Jackson V pass incomplete to Jeremiah Hunter for a 1ST down Arizona State Penalty, Defensive Pass Interference (Ed Woods) to the ASU 10 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 3:20
1ST & GOAL
OPP 10
+5
84.9%
Jaydn Ott run for 5 yds to the ASU 5Similar
Q4 3:04
2ND & GOAL
OPP 5
+3
86.7%
Sam Jackson V run for 3 yds to the ASU 8Similar
Q4 2:59
3RD & GOAL
OPP 8
+7
89.0%
Jaydn Ott run for 7 yds to the ASU 1Similar
Q4 2:50
4TH & GOAL
OPP 1
0
87.8%
Jaydn Ott run for no gain to the ASU 1Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ASUDrive 25DOWNS
7 plays · 38 yds · 1:4712% → 13%
Q4 2:50
1ST & 10
OWN 1
+20
87.9%
Trenton Bourguet pass complete to Cameron Skattebo for 20 yds to the ASU 21 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 2:50
1ST & 10
OWN 21
+8
86.9%
Trenton Bourguet run for 8 yds to the ASU 29Similar
Q4 2:50
2ND & 2
OWN 29
+4
85.0%
Trenton Bourguet pass complete to Jalin Conyers for 4 yds to the ASU 33 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 2:50
1ST & 10
OWN 33
0
85.7%
Trenton Bourguet pass incomplete to Xavier GuillorySimilar
Q4 2:50
2ND & 10
OWN 33
+6
86.2%
Trenton Bourguet pass complete to Giovanni Sanders for 6 yds to the ASU 39Similar
Q4 2:50
3RD & 4
OWN 39
0
85.2%
Trenton Bourguet pass incomplete to Ryan MorganSimilar
Q4 1:03
4TH & 4
OWN 39
0
86.6%
Trenton Bourguet pass incomplete to Elijhah BadgerSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CALDrive 26END OF GAME
2 plays · -2 yds · 1:0393% → 96%
Q4 1:03
1ST & 10
OPP 39
-1
93.1%
S. Jackson V takes a kneeSimilar
Q4 0:00
2ND & 11
OPP 40
-1
95.6%
S. Jackson V takes a kneeSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
TD · Q4 9:18
Trenton Bourguet 3 Yd Run (Elijhah Badger Pass to Trenton Bourguet for Two-Point Conversion)
-22.4
TD · Q4 10:52
Jaydn Ott run for 2 yds for a TD (Mateen Bhaghani KICK)
+12.9
TD · Q3 9:11
Sam Jackson V pass complete to Jeremiah Hunter for 21 yds for a TD (Mateen Bhaghani KICK)
+12.5
YardLine · model v10Model estimate - not betting advice · Data provided by CollegeFootballData.com