Try the model
WASH

Washington 31 at Arizona 24

ARIZ
2023 · Week 5 · Sep 30, 2023 · Arizona Stadium
Speed4x
View as
Download image
Win probability · ARIZ
modelARIZ aheadWASH aheadconfidence bandkey playARIZ scoreWASH score
0%25%50%75%100%Q1Q2Q3Q4TDTDTDTDFGTDTDFGTDEnd of Game
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q4 0:09 · Dillon Johnson run for 2 yds to the ARIZ 33 for a 1ST down
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Pregame priorHome team on offenseScore differentialGarbage-time factorScore diff ÷ seconds remainingScore diff ÷ offense timeouts
+40.5+20.30−20.3−40.5Q1Q2Q3Q4
This game in five plays
  1. TD · Q2 3:31: Will Nixon run for 5 yds for a TD (Grady Gross KICK) — WASH win probability +4.8 pts (now 89%) (top driver: WASH has the ball).
  2. TD · Q3 6:42: Dillon Johnson run for 4 yds for a TD (Grady Gross KICK) — WASH win probability +8.0 pts (now 94%) (top driver: WASH has the ball).
  3. TD · Q3 3:03: Noah Fifita pass complete to Tetairoa McMillan for 1 yd for a TD (Tyler Loop KICK) — ARIZ win probability +7.8 pts (now 17%) (top driver: ARIZ has the ball).
  4. FG · Q4 13:24: Grady Gross 37 yd FG GOOD — WASH win probability +5.5 pts (now 92%) (top driver: WASH has the ball).
  5. TD · Q4 1:08: Noah Fifita pass complete to Tetairoa McMillan for 10 yds for a TD (Tyler Loop KICK) — ARIZ win probability +22.9 pts (now 26%) (top driver: ARIZ has the ball).
Was that the right call?

Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works

Fourth downs
ARIZ made the numbers' call on 7 of 8WASH made the numbers' call on 3 of 4
  1. Q1 13:12ARIZ 4th & 9 at ARIZ 26, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 12.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    12.8%−0.1
    30% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    12.9%
    average punt
  2. Q1 3:51ARIZ 4th & 9 at ARIZ 24, down 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 14.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    14.7%−0.3
    30% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    15.0%
    average punt
  3. Q2 14:11ARIZ 4th & 1 at ARIZ 34, down 14
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 13.7% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    14.0%
    71% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    Punt
    13.6%−0.4
    average punt
  4. Q2 0:23ARIZ 4th & 6 at WASH 13, down 14
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 13.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    13.0%−0.5
    37% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    13.5%
    85% to make
    Punt
    11.2%−2.3
    average punt
  5. Q3 13:23WASH 4th & 8 at WASH 27, up 11
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 83.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    83.1%−0.8
    33% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    83.9%
    average punt
  6. Q3 10:22ARIZ 4th & 6 at ARIZ 46, down 11
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 15.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    15.0%−0.2
    40% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    15.2%
    average punt
  7. Q4 13:24WASH 4th & 20 at ARIZ 20, up 11
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 86.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    84.5%−2.4
    9% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    86.9%
    75% to make
    Punt
    81.5%−5.4
    average punt
  8. Q4 7:43ARIZ 4th & 1 at ARIZ 30, down 14
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 6.2% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    6.4%
    71% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    Punt
    5.4%−1.0
    average punt
  9. Q4 4:29ARIZ 4th & 3 at WASH 46, down 14
    Close callWent for it · 4.1% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    4.1%−0.1
    52% to convert
    Field goal
    4.1%
    23% to make
    Punt
    3.9%−0.2
    average punt
  10. Q4 4:04WASH 4th & 14 at WASH 42, up 14
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 96.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    95.1%−1.1
    18% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    96.3%
    average punt
  11. Q4 2:32ARIZ 4th & 1 at ARIZ 30, down 14
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 3.5% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    3.4%
    71% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    Punt
    3.0%−0.4
    average punt
  12. Q4 0:09WASH 4th & 1 at ARIZ 35, up 7
    Close callWent for it · 90.4% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    90.3%−0.4
    71% to convert
    Field goal
    90.7%
    45% to make
    Punt
    89.4%−1.3
    average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
ARIZ made the numbers' call on 3 of 3WASH made the numbers' call on 4 of 4
  1. Q1 6:02WASH Touchdown, up 6 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    84.9%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    84.9%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  2. Q1 0:38WASH Touchdown, up 13 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    86.2%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    86.2%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  3. Q2 9:31ARIZ Touchdown, down 8 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    17.0%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    17.0%−0.1
    45% to convert
  4. Q2 3:31WASH Touchdown, up 13 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    86.0%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    85.9%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  5. Q3 6:42WASH Touchdown, up 17 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    91.3%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    91.3%−0.1
    45% to convert
  6. Q3 3:03ARIZ Touchdown, down 12 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    13.0%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    12.9%−0.1
    45% to convert
  7. Q4 1:08ARIZ Touchdown, down 8 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    9.1%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    6.9%−2.2
    45% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chart
ARIZDrive 1PUNT
4 plays · 1 yds · 1:4711% → 12%
Q1 14:59
1ST & 10
OWN 25
-3
11.0%
Jonah Coleman run for a loss of 3 yards to the ARIZ 22Similar
Q1 14:24
2ND & 13
OWN 22
0
11.2%
Noah Fifita pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 13:49
3RD & 13
OWN 22
+4
11.4%
Noah Fifita pass complete to Jonah Coleman for 4 yds to the ARIZ 26Similar
Q1 13:12
4TH & 9
OWN 26
0
11.7%
Kyle Ostendorp punt for 69 yds, downed at the WASH 5Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WASHDrive 2TD
12 plays · 95 yds · 6:5988% → 87%
Q1 13:01
1ST & 10
OWN 5
+4
11.8%
Dillon Johnson run for 4 yds to the WASH 9Similar
Q1 12:33
2ND & 6
OWN 9
+18
12.0%
Michael Penix Jr. pass complete to Rome Odunze for 18 yds to the WASH 27 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 11:51
1ST & 10
OWN 27
+4
12.3%
Michael Penix Jr. pass complete to Jack Westover for 4 yds to the WASH 31Similar
Q1 11:31
2ND & 6
OWN 31
+4
12.4%
Michael Penix Jr. pass complete to Germie Bernard for 4 yds to the WASH 35Similar
Q1 10:48
3RD & 2
OWN 35
+11
12.7%
Germie Bernard run for 11 yds to the WASH 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 10:11
1ST & 10
OWN 46
+12
12.9%
Michael Penix Jr. pass complete to Rome Odunze for 12 yds to the ARIZ 42 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 9:36
1ST & 10
OPP 42
-10
13.1%
Washington Penalty, Offensive Holding (-10 Yards) to the ARIZ 36Similar
Q1 9:02
1ST & 4
OPP 36
-8
13.3%
Germie Bernard run for a loss of 8 yards to the ARIZ 44Similar
Q1 8:17
2ND & 12
OPP 44
+18
13.7%
Dillon Johnson run for 18 yds to the ARIZ 26 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 7:34
1ST & 10
OPP 26
+18
13.7%
Michael Penix Jr. pass complete to Dillon Johnson for 18 yds to the ARIZ 8 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 6:49
1ST & GOAL
OPP 8
+4
14.1%
Dillon Johnson run for 4 yds to the ARIZ 4Similar
Q1 6:02
2ND & GOAL
OPP 4
+4
12.8%
Dillon Johnson 4 Yd Run (Grady Gross Kick)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ARIZDrive 3PUNT
5 plays · 13 yds · 2:1113% → 14%
Q1 6:02
1ST & 10
OWN 11
+12
13.4%
Noah Fifita pass complete to Jacob Cowing for 12 yds to the ARIZ 23 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 3:51
1ST & 10
OWN 23
+1
14.1%
Rayshon Luke run for 1 yd to the ARIZ 24Similar
Q1 3:51
2ND & 9
OWN 24
0
14.0%
Rayshon Luke run for no gain to the ARIZ 24Similar
Q1 3:51
3RD & 9
OWN 24
0
13.8%
Noah Fifita pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 3:51
4TH & 9
OWN 24
0
13.7%
Kyle Ostendorp punt for 33 ydsSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WASHDrive 4TD
7 plays · 57 yds · 3:1387% → 88%
Q1 3:51
1ST & 10
OWN 43
+15
13.5%
Michael Penix Jr. pass complete to Ja'Lynn Polk for 15 yds to the ARIZ 42 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 3:18
1ST & 10
OPP 42
0
13.5%
Michael Penix Jr. pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 3:17
2ND & 10
OPP 42
+13
13.5%
Michael Penix Jr. pass complete to Rome Odunze for 13 yds to the ARIZ 29 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 2:29
1ST & 10
OPP 29
+5
13.6%
Tybo Rogers run for 5 yds to the ARIZ 24Similar
Q1 2:03
2ND & 5
OPP 24
+14
13.7%
Michael Penix Jr. pass complete to Germie Bernard for 14 yds to the ARIZ 10 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 1:23
1ST & GOAL
OPP 10
+7
13.7%
Michael Penix Jr. pass complete to Germie Bernard for 7 yds to the ARIZ 3Similar
Q1 0:38
2ND & GOAL
OPP 3
+3
11.6%
Germie Bernard run for 3 yds for a TD (Grady Gross KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ARIZDrive 5TD
13 plays · 75 yds · 6:0612% → 18%
Q1 0:37
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+4
12.3%
Jonah Coleman run for 4 yds to the ARIZ 29Similar
Q2 14:59
2ND & 6
OWN 29
0
12.5%
Noah Fifita pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 14:55
3RD & 6
OWN 29
+5
12.4%
Noah Fifita pass complete to Tetairoa McMillan for 5 yds to the ARIZ 34Similar
Q2 14:11
4TH & 1
OWN 34
+6
12.7%
Jonah Coleman run for 6 yds to the ARIZ 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 13:39
1ST & 10
OWN 40
+7
12.9%
Jonah Coleman run for 7 yds to the ARIZ 47Similar
Q2 13:09
2ND & 3
OWN 47
0
13.2%
Jonah Coleman run for no gain to the ARIZ 47Similar
Q2 12:36
3RD & 3
OWN 47
+6
13.2%
Noah Fifita pass complete to Jacob Cowing for 6 yds to the WASH 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 12:15
1ST & 10
OPP 47
0
13.3%
(12:15) FIFITA, Noah pass to the left complete for 27 yards to MCMILLAN, Tetairoa caught at the WAS32 and advanced to the WAS20 (BRUENER, Carson), clock 12:06. PENALTY ARI Illegal Touch-Pass on MCMILLAN, Tetairoa enforced 0 yards from the WAS47 to the WAS47, penalty results in a loss of down [NHSG]. NO PLAY (replay the down).Similar
Q2 11:48
2ND & 10
OPP 47
+11
13.0%
Noah Fifita pass complete to Tanner McLachlan for 11 yds to the WASH 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 11:11
1ST & 10
OPP 36
+19
13.0%
Noah Fifita pass complete to Tetairoa McMillan for 19 yds to the WASH 17 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 10:35
1ST & 10
OPP 17
+5
13.3%
Noah Fifita run for 5 yds to the WASH 12Similar
Q2 10:04
2ND & 5
OPP 12
+4
13.4%
Jonah Coleman run for 4 yds to the WASH 8Similar
Q2 9:31
3RD & 1
OPP 8
+8
18.0%
Noah Fifita pass complete to Jacob Cowing for 8 yds for a TD Washington Penalty, Roughing the Passer on POWELL, Mishael of (Mishael Powell) to the WASH 0 (Tyler Loop KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WASHDrive 6TD
14 plays · 73 yds · 5:5784% → 89%
Q2 9:28
1ST & 10
OWN 27
0
16.2%
Michael Penix Jr. pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 9:14
2ND & 10
OWN 27
+6
16.6%
Michael Penix Jr. pass complete to Dillon Johnson for 6 yds to the WASH 33Similar
Q2 8:38
3RD & 4
OWN 33
-10
16.9%
(08:38) QB Keeper PENIX JR., Michael rush up the middle for a gain of 10 yards to the WAS43 (KA'AIHUE, Kamuela), clock 08:32. PENALTY WAS Holding on BRAILSFORD, Parker enforced 10 yards from the WAS33 to the WAS23 [SG]. NO PLAY (replay the down).Similar
Q2 8:13
3RD & 14
OWN 23
+15
17.1%
Michael Penix Jr. pass complete to Germie Bernard for 15 yds to the WASH 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 7:33
1ST & 10
OWN 38
+4
15.9%
Michael Penix Jr. pass complete to Dillon Johnson for 4 yds to the WASH 42Similar
Q2 7:00
2ND & 6
OWN 42
+9
15.9%
Michael Penix Jr. pass complete to Ja'Lynn Polk for 9 yds to the ARIZ 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 6:29
1ST & 10
OPP 49
+15
15.8%
Arizona Penalty, Personal Foul (Jacob Manu) to the ARIZ 34 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 6:02
1ST & 10
OPP 34
+14
15.7%
Michael Penix Jr. pass complete to Rome Odunze for 14 yds to the ARIZ 20 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 5:40
1ST & 10
OPP 20
+5
15.8%
Michael Penix Jr. pass complete to Dillon Johnson for 5 yds to the ARIZ 15Similar
Q2 5:10
2ND & 5
OPP 15
0
15.9%
Dillon Johnson run for no gain to the ARIZ 15Similar
Q2 4:36
3RD & 5
OPP 15
+7
16.2%
Michael Penix Jr. pass complete to Jack Westover for 7 yds Jack Westover fumbled, recovered by WASH for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 3:58
1ST & GOAL
OPP 8
+3
16.1%
Will Nixon run for 3 yds to the ARIZ 5Similar
Q2 3:31
2ND & GOAL
OPP 5
+5
11.3%
Will Nixon run for 5 yds for a TD (Grady Gross KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ARIZDrive 7FG
13 plays · 62 yds · 3:0712% → 15%
Q2 3:30
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+6
12.4%
Noah Fifita pass complete to Jacob Cowing for 6 yds to the ARIZ 31Similar
Q2 2:52
2ND & 4
OWN 31
+5
12.8%
DJ Williams run for 5 yds to the ARIZ 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 2:11
1ST & 10
OWN 36
+7
12.7%
Noah Fifita pass complete to Tanner McLachlan for 7 yds to the ARIZ 43Similar
Q2 1:48
2ND & 3
OWN 43
+4
13.0%
DJ Williams run for 4 yds to the ARIZ 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 1:32
1ST & 10
OWN 47
+12
13.2%
Jonah Coleman run for 12 yds to the WASH 41 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 1:21
1ST & 10
OPP 41
+5
13.3%
Noah Fifita run for 5 yds to the WASH 36Similar
Q2 1:15
2ND & 5
OPP 36
+6
13.4%
Noah Fifita pass complete to Tetairoa McMillan for 6 yds to the WASH 30 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 1:09
1ST & 10
OPP 30
+15
13.9%
Washington Penalty, Personal Foul (Edefuan Ulofoshio) to the WASH 17 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:57
1ST & 10
OPP 17
0
14.1%
Noah Fifita pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 0:55
2ND & 10
OPP 17
+4
13.3%
Noah Fifita pass complete to Tetairoa McMillan for 4 yds to the WASH 13Similar
Q2 0:28
3RD & 6
OPP 13
0
12.7%
Noah Fifita pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 0:23
4TH & 6
OPP 13
+30
15.2%
Tyler Loop 30 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WASHDrive 8END OF HALF
7 plays · 42 yds · 0:2386% → 87%
Q2 0:23
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+13
13.9%
Michael Penix Jr. pass complete to Ja'Lynn Polk for 13 yds to the WASH 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:15
1ST & 10
OWN 38
0
13.3%
Michael Penix Jr. pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 0:13
2ND & 10
OWN 38
0
13.5%
Michael Penix Jr. pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 0:09
3RD & 10
OWN 38
+23
13.7%
Michael Penix Jr. pass complete to Germie Bernard for 23 yds to the ARIZ 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:00
1ST & 10
OPP 39
0
12.6%
PENIX JR., Michael pass deep to the left incomplete intended for ODUNZE, Rome thrown to the ARI0, clock 00:00. PENALTY WAS Holding on BRAILSFORD, Parker ARI Roughing the Passer on UPSHAW, Taylor , Offsetting penalties [SG]. NO PLAY (replay the down).Similar
Q2 0:00
1ST & 10
OPP 39
+6
12.6%
Michael Penix Jr. pass complete to Germie Bernard for 6 yds to the ARIZ 33Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WASHDrive 9PUNT
6 plays · 2 yds · 1:3685% → 84%
Q3 14:59
1ST & 10
OWN 25
-2
15.1%
Dillon Johnson run for a loss of 2 yards to the WASH 23Similar
Q3 14:13
2ND & 12
OWN 23
+4
15.3%
Dillon Johnson run for 4 yds to the WASH 27Similar
Q3 13:44
3RD & 8
OWN 27
+5
15.6%
Arizona Penalty, Offsides (Jacob Kongaika) to the WASH 32Similar
Q3 13:35
3RD & 3
OWN 32
0
15.4%
Michael Penix Jr. pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 13:27
4TH & 3
OWN 32
-5
15.8%
Washington Penalty, False Start (Carson Bruener) to the WASH 27Similar
Q3 13:23
4TH & 8
OWN 27
0
16.0%
Jack McCallister punt for 48 yds, fair catch by Jacob Cowing at the ARIZ 25Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ARIZDrive 10PUNT
7 plays · 21 yds · 2:5615% → 14%
Q3 13:18
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+2
15.3%
DJ Williams run for 2 yds to the ARIZ 27Similar
Q3 12:41
2ND & 8
OWN 27
+15
15.3%
(12:41) FIFITA, Noah pass deep to the left incomplete intended for MCMILLAN, Tetairoa thrown to the WAS30, clock 12:34. PENALTY WAS Pass Interference on HAMPTON, Dominique enforced 15 yards to the ARI42 and results in automatic 1ST DOWN [SG]. NO PLAY (replay the down).Similar
Q3 12:34
1ST & 10
OWN 42
+8
16.1%
Noah Fifita run for 8 yds to the 50 yard lineSimilar
Q3 12:00
2ND & 2
50
-5
16.8%
Arizona Penalty, Illegal Substitution (-5 Yards) to the ARIZ 45Similar
Q3 11:38
2ND & 7
OWN 45
+4
16.5%
Jonah Coleman run for 4 yds to the ARIZ 49Similar
Q3 10:57
3RD & 3
OWN 49
-3
15.7%
Noah Fifita sacked by Bralen Trice for a loss of 3 yards to the ARIZ 46Similar
Q3 10:22
4TH & 6
OWN 46
0
14.4%
Kyle Ostendorp punt for 38 yds, fair catch by Rome Odunze at the WASH 16Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WASHDrive 11TD
8 plays · 84 yds · 3:3385% → 94%
Q3 10:15
1ST & 10
OWN 16
+4
15.0%
Dillon Johnson run for 4 yds to the WASH 20Similar
Q3 9:44
2ND & 6
OWN 20
+7
15.1%
Dillon Johnson run for 7 yds to the WASH 27 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 9:05
1ST & 10
OWN 27
+57
14.6%
Michael Penix Jr. pass complete to Josh Cuevas for 57 yds to the ARIZ 16 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 8:21
1ST & 10
OPP 16
0
13.1%
Michael Penix Jr. pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 8:16
2ND & 10
OPP 16
-10
13.1%
(08:16) ROGERS, Tybo rush to the right for no gain to the ARI16 (BROWN, Taye;DAVIS, Tacario), clock 08:08. PENALTY WAS Holding on CUEVAS, Josh enforced 10 yards from the ARI16 to the ARI26 [SG]. NO PLAY (replay the down).Similar
Q3 7:45
2ND & 20
OPP 26
+4
13.4%
Michael Penix Jr. pass complete to Ja'Lynn Polk for 4 yds to the ARIZ 22Similar
Q3 7:19
3RD & 16
OPP 22
+18
13.8%
Michael Penix Jr. pass complete to Devin Culp for 18 yds to the ARIZ 4 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 6:42
1ST & GOAL
OPP 4
+4
5.8%
Dillon Johnson run for 4 yds for a TD (Grady Gross KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ARIZDrive 12TD
8 plays · 75 yds · 3:388% → 17%
Q3 6:41
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+33
7.9%
Noah Fifita pass complete to Jonah Coleman for 33 yds to the WASH 42 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 5:57
1ST & 10
OPP 42
+13
9.0%
DJ Williams run for 13 yds to the WASH 29 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 5:34
1ST & 10
OPP 29
+7
9.4%
Noah Fifita pass complete to Montana Lemonious-Craig for 7 yds to the WASH 22Similar
Q3 5:06
2ND & 3
OPP 22
0
9.4%
Washington Penalty, Face mask (0 yards) (Kamren Fabiculanan) to the WASH 11 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 4:30
1ST & 10
OPP 11
+9
9.2%
(04:30) FIFITA, Noah pass to the right incomplete intended for LEMONIOUS-CRAIG, Montana thrown to the WAS0, clock 04:25. PENALTY WAS Pass Interference on MUHAMMAD, Jabbar enforced 9 yards to the WAS2 and results in automatic 1ST DOWN [SG]. NO PLAY (replay the down).Similar
Q3 4:25
1ST & GOAL
OPP 2
+1
9.5%
Jonah Coleman run for 1 yd to the WASH 1Similar
Q3 3:43
2ND & GOAL
OPP 1
0
9.1%
Jonah Coleman run for no gain to the WASH 1Similar
Q3 3:03
3RD & GOAL
OPP 1
+1
16.9%
Noah Fifita pass complete to Tetairoa McMillan for 1 yd for a TD (Tyler Loop KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WASHDrive 13FG
12 plays · 55 yds · 4:3985% → 92%
Q3 3:03
1ST & 10
OWN 25
0
15.1%
Michael Penix Jr. pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 2:54
2ND & 10
OWN 25
+7
15.2%
Michael Penix Jr. pass complete to Rome Odunze for 7 yds to the WASH 32Similar
Q3 2:21
3RD & 3
OWN 32
+14
15.4%
Michael Penix Jr. pass complete to Devin Culp for 14 yds to the WASH 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 1:56
1ST & 10
OWN 46
+15
13.7%
Michael Penix Jr. pass complete to Dillon Johnson for 15 yds to the ARIZ 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 1:19
1ST & 10
OPP 39
+24
13.3%
Michael Penix Jr. pass complete to Germie Bernard for 24 yds to the ARIZ 15 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 0:51
1ST & 10
OPP 15
+5
13.0%
Michael Penix Jr. pass complete to Germie Bernard for 5 yds to the ARIZ 10Similar
Q3 0:19
2ND & 5
OPP 10
+5
12.0%
Dillon Johnson run for 5 yds to the ARIZ 5 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 14:53
1ST & GOAL
OPP 5
-1
12.0%
Michael Penix Jr. sacked by Tiaoalii Savea for a loss of 1 yard to the ARIZ 6Similar
Q4 14:18
2ND & GOAL
OPP 6
0
12.5%
Michael Penix Jr. pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 14:17
3RD & GOAL
OPP 6
-10
12.7%
(14:17) NIXON, Will rush to the right for a gain of 3 yards to the ARI3 (NORTON, Bill), clock 14:11. PENALTY WAS Holding on HATCHETT, Geirean enforced 10 yards from the ARI6 to the ARI16 [NHSG]. NO PLAY (replay the down).Similar
Q4 14:11
3RD & GOAL
OPP 16
-4
13.1%
Michael Penix Jr. pass complete to Tybo Rogers for a loss of 4 yards to the ARIZ 20Similar
Q4 13:24
4TH & GOAL
OPP 20
+37
7.6%
Grady Gross 37 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ARIZDrive 14INT
5 plays · 11 yds · 1:3710% → 10%
Q4 13:23
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+3
9.6%
Rayshon Luke run for 3 yds to the ARIZ 28Similar
Q4 12:46
2ND & 7
OWN 28
+6
9.7%
Noah Fifita pass complete to Jacob Cowing for 6 yds to the ARIZ 34Similar
Q4 12:11
3RD & 1
OWN 34
+2
10.2%
Jonah Coleman run for 2 yds to the ARIZ 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 11:53
1ST & 10
OWN 36
0
10.2%
Noah Fifita pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 11:46
2ND & 10
OWN 36
0
9.8%
Noah Fifita pass interceptedSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WASHDrive 15FUMBLE
4 plays · 39 yds · 1:3394% → 95%
Q4 11:39
1ST & 10
OPP 44
+28
5.8%
Dillon Johnson run for 28 yds to the ARIZ 16 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 11:02
1ST & 10
OPP 16
+5
5.4%
JOHNSON, Dillon rush to the right for no gain to the ARI16 (MANU, Jacob;MANOA, Tyler), clock 11:02. PENALTY ARI Offsides on WARD, Isaiah enforced 5 yards from the ARI16 to the ARI11 [SG]. NO PLAY (replay the down).Similar
Q4 10:44
1ST & 5
OPP 11
+6
5.4%
Germie Bernard run for 6 yds to the ARIZ 5 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 10:06
1ST & GOAL
OPP 5
0
5.2%
Germie Bernard run for no gain to the ARIZ 5 Germie Bernard fumbled, recovered by ARIZ Tyler ManoaSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ARIZDrive 16DOWNS
15 plays · 49 yds · 5:238% → 4%
Q4 9:52
1ST & 10
OWN 5
-1
7.5%
DJ Williams run for a loss of 1 yard to the ARIZ 4Similar
Q4 9:20
2ND & 11
OWN 4
+17
6.3%
Noah Fifita pass complete to Tanner McLachlan for 17 yds to the ARIZ 21 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 8:58
1ST & 10
OWN 21
0
6.7%
Noah Fifita pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 8:56
2ND & 10
OWN 21
+5
6.1%
DJ Williams run for 5 yds to the ARIZ 26Similar
Q4 8:17
3RD & 5
OWN 26
+4
6.0%
Noah Fifita pass complete to Tanner McLachlan for 4 yds to the ARIZ 30Similar
Q4 7:43
4TH & 1
OWN 30
+6
6.1%
DJ Williams run for 6 yds to the ARIZ 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 7:05
1ST & 10
OWN 36
0
5.8%
Noah Fifita pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 7:00
2ND & 10
OWN 36
+7
5.6%
Jonah Coleman run for 7 yds to the ARIZ 43Similar
Q4 6:22
3RD & 3
OWN 43
-5
5.7%
Arizona Penalty, False Start (Jordan Morgan) to the ARIZ 38Similar
Q4 6:02
3RD & 8
OWN 38
+9
5.3%
Noah Fifita pass complete to Tanner McLachlan for 9 yds to the ARIZ 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 5:32
1ST & 10
OWN 47
+5
5.7%
FIFITA, Noah sacked for a loss of 7 yards at the ARI40 (PARKER, Jayvon), clock 05:32. PENALTY Before the snap, WAS Illegal Substitution enforced 5 yards from the ARI47 to the WAS48. NO PLAY (replay the down).Similar
Q4 5:19
1ST & 5
OPP 48
+3
6.2%
Noah Fifita pass complete to Tanner McLachlan for 3 yds to the WASH 45Similar
Q4 4:55
2ND & 2
OPP 45
-1
6.2%
Noah Fifita pass complete to Jacob Cowing for a loss of 1 yard to the WASH 46Similar
Q4 4:34
3RD & 3
OPP 46
0
5.4%
Noah Fifita pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 4:29
4TH & 3
OPP 46
0
4.1%
Noah Fifita pass incompleteSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WASHDrive 17PUNT
5 plays · -4 yds · 0:2296% → 96%
Q4 4:26
1ST & 10
OWN 46
0
3.7%
Michael Penix Jr. pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 4:18
2ND & 10
OWN 46
0
3.7%
Michael Penix Jr. pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 4:13
3RD & 10
OWN 46
-4
3.8%
Michael Penix Jr. sacked by Taylor Upshaw for a loss of 4 yards to the WASH 42Similar
Q4 4:04
4TH & 14
OWN 42
0
3.8%
Jack McCallister punt for 37 yds , returns for no gain to the ARIZ 10Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ARIZDrive 18TD
11 plays · 90 yds · 2:473% → 26%
Q4 3:55
1ST & 10
OWN 10
+11
3.1%
Noah Fifita pass complete to Jacob Cowing for 11 yds to the ARIZ 21 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 3:27
1ST & 10
OWN 21
0
3.1%
Noah Fifita pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 3:24
2ND & 10
OWN 21
+7
3.0%
DJ Williams run for 7 yds to the ARIZ 28Similar
Q4 2:58
3RD & 3
OWN 28
+2
3.0%
Noah Fifita run for 2 yds to the ARIZ 30Similar
Q4 2:32
4TH & 1
OWN 30
+2
2.9%
DJ Williams run for 2 yds to the ARIZ 32 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 2:19
1ST & 10
OWN 32
+12
2.9%
Noah Fifita run for 2 yds to the ARIZ 34 for a 1ST down Washington Penalty, Defensive Holding (Edefuan Ulofoshio) to the ARIZ 44 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 2:13
1ST & 10
OWN 44
+9
3.0%
Noah Fifita pass complete to Montana Lemonious-Craig for 9 yds to the WASH 47Similar
Q4 1:45
2ND & 1
OPP 47
+13
2.9%
Noah Fifita pass complete to Jacob Cowing for 13 yds to the WASH 34 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 1:29
1ST & 10
OPP 34
+14
3.1%
Noah Fifita pass complete to Jonah Coleman for 14 yds to the WASH 20 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 1:28
1ST & 10
OPP 20
+10
3.3%
Noah Fifita pass complete to Kevin Green Jr. for 10 yds to the WASH 10 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 1:08
1ST & GOAL
OPP 10
+10
26.2%
Noah Fifita pass complete to Tetairoa McMillan for 10 yds for a TD (Tyler Loop KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WASHDrive 19END OF GAME
7 plays · 11 yds · 0:5795% → 95%
Q4 1:06
1ST & 10
OPP 44
+6
4.6%
Dillon Johnson run for 6 yds to the ARIZ 38Similar
Q4 1:01
2ND & 4
OPP 38
+2
4.4%
Dillon Johnson run for 2 yds to the ARIZ 36Similar
Q4 0:56
3RD & 2
OPP 36
+1
4.3%
Dillon Johnson run for 1 yd to the ARIZ 35Similar
Q4 0:09
4TH & 1
OPP 35
+2
5.1%
Dillon Johnson run for 2 yds to the ARIZ 33 for a 1ST downSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
TD · Q4 1:08
Noah Fifita pass complete to Tetairoa McMillan for 10 yds for a TD (Tyler Loop KICK)
+22.9
TD · Q3 6:42
Dillon Johnson run for 4 yds for a TD (Grady Gross KICK)
-8
TD · Q3 3:03
Noah Fifita pass complete to Tetairoa McMillan for 1 yd for a TD (Tyler Loop KICK)
+7.8
YardLine · model v10Model estimate - not betting advice · Data provided by CollegeFootballData.com