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CAL

California 32 at Washington 59

WASH
2023 · Week 4 · Sep 23, 2023 · Husky Stadium
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Win probability · WASH
modelWASH aheadCAL aheadconfidence bandkey playWASH scoreCAL score
0%25%50%75%100%Q1Q2Q3Q4TDTDTDFGTDTDTDTDTDTDTDTDTDEnd of Game
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q4 8:00 · Dylan Morris pass complete to Rashid Williams for 18 yds to the CAL 13 for a 1ST down
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Pregame priorHome team on offenseScore differentialBlowout marginGarbage-time factorScore diff ÷ offense timeouts
+43.5+21.80−21.8−43.5Q1Q2Q3Q4Play 151Pregame prior+8.0Home team on offense+35.4Score differential+27.1Blowout margin+13.1Garbage-time factor+11.6Score diff ÷ offense timeouts+9.1
This game in five plays
  1. TD · Q1 5:52: Ben Finley pass complete to Jeremiah Hunter for 7 yds for a TD (Michael Luckhurst PAT MISSED) — CAL win probability +1.1 pts (now 9%) (top driver: CAL has the ball).
  2. TD · Q1 2:19: Michael Penix Jr. pass complete to Ja'Lynn Polk for 8 yds for a TD (Grady Gross KICK) — WASH win probability +1.4 pts (now 93%) (top driver: WASH has the ball).
  3. TD · Q2 9:00: Ben Finley pass complete to Taj Davis for 24 yds for a TD (Two-Point Conversion failed ) — WASH win probability +1.0 pts (now 94%) (top driver: CAL has the ball).
  4. TD · Q2 4:08: Michael Penix Jr. pass complete to Ja'Lynn Polk for 24 yds for a TD (Grady Gross KICK) — WASH win probability +3.2 pts (now 98%) (top driver: WASH has the ball).
  5. TD · Q2 0:44: Michael Penix Jr. pass complete to Rome Odunze for 35 yds for a TD (Grady Gross KICK) — WASH win probability +1.2 pts (now 99%) (top driver: WASH has the ball).
Was that the right call?

Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works

Fourth downs
WASH made the numbers' call on 5 of 5CAL made the numbers' call on 4 of 4
  1. Q1 9:13CAL 4th & 6 at CAL 35, down 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 10.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    10.2%−0.1
    40% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    10.2%
    average punt
  2. Q1 0:38WASH 4th & 7 at CAL 24, up 15
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 91.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    90.9%−<0.1
    36% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    91.0%
    68% to make
    Punt
    90.0%−1.0
    average punt
  3. Q2 14:09CAL 4th & 7 at CAL 28, down 18
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 7.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    7.8%−0.5
    36% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    8.4%
    average punt
  4. Q2 1:32CAL 4th & 14 at midfield, down 26
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 1.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    1.6%−0.2
    19% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    1.9%
    average punt
  5. Q3 9:45CAL 4th & 5 at CAL 33, down 40
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 0.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    0.5%−0.1
    41% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    0.5%
    average punt
  6. Q3 4:37WASH 4th & 2 at CAL 23, up 40
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 99.7% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    99.7%
    57% to convert
    Field goal
    99.7%−0.1
    70% to make
    Punt
    99.3%−0.5
    average punt
  7. Q4 13:26WASH 4th & 14 at WASH 32, up 33
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 99.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    99.7%−0.2
    18% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    99.9%
    average punt
  8. Q4 8:00WASH 4th & 3 at CAL 31, up 27
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 99.9% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    99.9%
    52% to convert
    Field goal
    99.8%−0.1
    54% to make
    Punt
    99.7%−0.2
    average punt
  9. Q4 1:47WASH 4th & 7 at WASH 28, up 27
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 99.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    99.9%−<0.1
    36% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    99.9%
    average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
WASH made the numbers' call on 7 of 7CAL made the numbers' call on 3 of 5
  1. Q1 12:37WASH Touchdown, up 6 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    90.2%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    90.2%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  2. Q1 5:52CAL Touchdown, down 8 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · missed
    KickTheir call
    10.9%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    10.9%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  3. Q1 2:19WASH Touchdown, up 14 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    90.7%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    90.7%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  4. Q2 11:27WASH Touchdown, up 24 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    95.2%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    95.1%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  5. Q2 9:00CAL Touchdown, down 19 before the try
    Close callWent for two · failed
    Kick
    6.7%
    97% to make
    Go for twoTheir call
    6.7%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  6. Q2 4:08WASH Touchdown, up 25 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    94.4%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    94.3%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  7. Q2 0:44WASH Touchdown, up 32 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    98.9%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    98.9%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  8. Q3 11:28WASH Touchdown, up 39 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    99.5%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    99.5%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  9. Q3 1:49CAL Touchdown, down 34 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    0.3%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    0.3%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  10. Q4 10:48CAL Touchdown, down 27 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · missed
    KickTheir call
    0.3%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    0.3%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  11. Q4 7:08WASH Touchdown, up 33 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    100.0%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    100.0%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  12. Q4 3:40CAL Touchdown, down 28 before the try
    Close callKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    0.1%−<0.1
    97% to make
    Go for two
    0.1%
    45% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chart
CALDrive 1INT TD
7 plays · 18 yds · 2:187% → 7%
Q1 14:55
1ST & 10
OWN 25
0
93.1%
Jaydn Ott run for no gain to the CAL 25Similar
Q1 14:10
2ND & 10
OWN 25
+9
93.0%
Ben Finley pass complete to Jaydn Ott for 9 yds to the CAL 34Similar
Q1 13:58
3RD & 1
OWN 34
+3
92.9%
Jaydn Ott run for 3 yds to the CAL 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 13:28
1ST & 10
OWN 37
+4
92.8%
Jaydn Ott run for 4 yds to the CAL 41Similar
Q1 12:48
2ND & 6
OWN 41
+2
92.6%
Jaydn Ott run for 2 yds to the CAL 43Similar
Q1 12:37
3RD & 4
OWN 43
-45
92.8%
Ben Finley pass intercepted for a TD Edefuan Ulofoshio return for 45 yds for a TD (Grady Gross KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CALDrive 2PUNT RETURN TD
8 plays · 16 yds · 3:127% → 7%
Q1 12:25
1ST & 10
OWN 19
+4
92.8%
Jaydn Ott run for 4 yds to the CAL 23Similar
Q1 12:00
2ND & 6
OWN 23
+4
92.7%
Ben Finley pass complete to Jack Endries for 4 yds to the CAL 27Similar
Q1 11:20
3RD & 2
OWN 27
+4
92.6%
Ben Finley run for 4 yds to the CAL 31 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 10:40
1ST & 10
OWN 31
+1
92.5%
Jaydn Ott run for 1 yd to the CAL 32Similar
Q1 9:51
2ND & 9
OWN 32
+3
92.4%
Ben Finley run for 3 yds to the CAL 35Similar
Q1 9:34
3RD & 6
OWN 35
0
92.3%
Ben Finley pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 9:13
4TH & 6
OWN 35
+83
92.9%
Lachlan Wilson punt for 48 yds , Rome Odunze returns for 83 yds for a TD (Grady Gross KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CALDrive 3TD
10 plays · 75 yds · 3:037% → 9%
Q1 8:55
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+15
92.9%
Washington Penalty, Defensive Pass Interference (Mishael Powell) to the CAL 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 8:51
1ST & 10
OWN 40
+3
92.8%
Isaiah Ifanse run for 3 yds to the CAL 43Similar
Q1 8:21
2ND & 7
OWN 43
+4
92.8%
Ben Finley pass complete to Jeremiah Hunter for 4 yds to the CAL 47Similar
Q1 7:56
3RD & 3
OWN 47
+3
92.8%
Ben Finley pass complete to Monroe Young for 3 yds to the 50 yard line for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 7:00
1ST & 10
50
+16
92.7%
Ben Finley pass complete to Jack Endries for 16 yds to the WASH 34 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 6:46
1ST & 10
OPP 34
0
92.6%
Ben Finley pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 6:36
2ND & 10
OPP 34
0
92.6%
Ben Finley pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 6:12
3RD & 10
OPP 34
+27
92.7%
Ben Finley pass complete to Taj Davis for 27 yds to the WASH 7 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 5:52
1ST & GOAL
OPP 7
+7
91.5%
Ben Finley pass complete to Jeremiah Hunter for 7 yds for a TD (Michael Luckhurst PAT MISSED)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WASHDrive 4TD
9 plays · 73 yds · 3:1192% → 93%
Q1 5:30
1ST & 10
OWN 27
+19
91.9%
Dillon Johnson run for 19 yds to the WASH 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 5:17
1ST & 10
OWN 46
-5
92.1%
Washington Penalty, False Start (Nate Kalepo) to the WASH 41Similar
Q1 4:49
1ST & 15
OWN 41
+8
91.9%
Michael Penix Jr. pass complete to Devin Culp for 8 yds to the WASH 49Similar
Q1 4:14
2ND & 7
OWN 49
+2
92.0%
Dillon Johnson run for 2 yds to the CAL 49Similar
Q1 3:30
3RD & 5
OPP 49
+9
91.7%
Michael Penix Jr. pass complete to Dillon Johnson for 9 yds to the CAL 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 3:11
1ST & 10
OPP 40
+23
91.9%
Michael Penix Jr. pass complete to Rome Odunze for 23 yds to the CAL 17 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 2:41
1ST & 10
OPP 17
+9
91.8%
Will Nixon run for 9 yds to the CAL 8Similar
Q1 2:19
2ND & 1
OPP 8
+8
93.3%
Michael Penix Jr. pass complete to Ja'Lynn Polk for 8 yds for a TD (Grady Gross KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CALDrive 5INT
4 plays · 2 yds · 0:228% → 8%
Q1 1:55
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+2
91.8%
Ben Finley run for 2 yds to the CAL 27Similar
Q1 1:38
2ND & 8
OWN 27
0
91.8%
Ben Finley pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 1:33
3RD & 8
OWN 27
0
91.9%
Ben Finley pass intercepted Dominique Hampton return for no gain to the CAL 27Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WASHDrive 6FG
4 plays · 3 yds · 0:4393% → 94%
Q1 1:21
1ST & 10
OPP 27
+3
93.3%
Dillon Johnson run for 3 yds to the CAL 24Similar
Q1 0:49
2ND & 7
OPP 24
0
93.3%
Michael Penix Jr. pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 0:44
3RD & 7
OPP 24
0
93.2%
Michael Penix Jr. pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 0:38
4TH & 7
OPP 24
+41
93.8%
Grady Gross 41 Yd Field Goal Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CALDrive 7PUNT
5 plays · 3 yds · 0:516% → 6%
Q1 0:00
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+4
93.8%
Isaiah Ifanse run for 4 yds to the CAL 29Similar
Q2 14:55
2ND & 6
OWN 29
0
93.7%
Ben Finley pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 14:30
3RD & 6
OWN 29
-1
93.7%
Ben Finley pass complete to Jeremiah Hunter for a loss of 1 yard to the CAL 28Similar
Q2 14:09
4TH & 7
OWN 28
0
93.9%
Lachlan Wilson punt for 47 yds, fair catch by Rome Odunze at the WASH 25Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WASHDrive 8TD
5 plays · 75 yds · 2:2794% → 94%
Q2 13:54
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+44
94.0%
Michael Penix Jr. pass complete to Rome Odunze for 44 yds to the CAL 31 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 13:24
1ST & 10
OPP 31
+7
94.2%
Dillon Johnson run for 7 yds to the CAL 24Similar
Q2 12:38
2ND & 3
OPP 24
+18
94.1%
Will Nixon run for 18 yds to the CAL 6 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 12:08
1ST & GOAL
OPP 6
+3
94.2%
Will Nixon run for 3 yds to the CAL 3Similar
Q2 11:27
2ND & GOAL
OPP 3
+3
93.9%
Dillon Johnson run for 3 yds for a TD (Grady Gross KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CALDrive 9TD
9 plays · 80 yds · 2:156% → 6%
Q2 11:15
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+4
93.8%
Jaydn Ott run for 4 yds to the CAL 24Similar
Q2 10:50
2ND & 6
OWN 24
+2
93.8%
Jaydn Ott run for 2 yds to the CAL 26Similar
Q2 10:20
3RD & 4
OWN 26
+5
93.8%
Washington Penalty, Defensive Offside (5 Yards) to the CAL 31 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 10:02
1ST & 10
OWN 31
0
93.6%
Ben Finley pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 9:41
2ND & 10
OWN 31
+20
93.9%
Ben Finley pass complete to Trond Grizzell for 20 yds to the WASH 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 9:21
1ST & 10
OPP 49
+25
93.1%
Ben Finley pass complete to Jeremiah Hunter for 25 yds to the WASH 24 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 9:06
1ST & 10
OPP 24
0
92.7%
Ben Finley pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 9:00
2ND & 10
OPP 24
+24
93.6%
Ben Finley pass complete to Taj Davis for 24 yds for a TD (Two-Point Conversion failed )Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WASHDrive 10INT
4 plays · 7 yds · 1:1495% → 95%
Q2 8:41
1ST & 10
OWN 9
-3
94.5%
Dillon Johnson run for a loss of 3 yards to the WASH 6Similar
Q2 8:16
2ND & 13
OWN 6
+10
94.3%
Michael Penix Jr. pass complete to Rome Odunze for 10 yds to the WASH 16Similar
Q2 7:27
3RD & 3
OWN 16
0
94.6%
Michael Penix Jr. pass intercepted Lu-Magia Hearns III return for no gain to the WASH 37Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CALDrive 11INT
1 play · 0 yds · 0:007% → 7%
Q2 7:10
1ST & 10
OPP 37
-42
93.5%
Ben Finley pass intercepted Jabbar Muhammad return for 42 yds to the CAL 48Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WASHDrive 12TD
8 plays · 48 yds · 2:5595% → 98%
Q2 7:03
1ST & 10
OPP 48
0
95.0%
Michael Penix Jr. pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 6:50
2ND & 10
OPP 48
+7
95.0%
Will Nixon run for 7 yds to the CAL 41Similar
Q2 6:31
3RD & 3
OPP 41
+5
94.8%
Michael Penix Jr. run for 5 yds to the CAL 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 5:37
1ST & 10
OPP 36
+2
95.1%
Will Nixon run for 2 yds to the CAL 34Similar
Q2 4:56
2ND & 8
OPP 34
-10
94.7%
Washington Penalty, Offensive Holding (-10 Yards) to the CAL 44Similar
Q2 4:21
2ND & 18
OPP 44
+20
94.7%
Michael Penix Jr. pass complete to Germie Bernard for 20 yds to the CAL 24 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 4:08
1ST & 10
OPP 24
+24
97.8%
Michael Penix Jr. pass complete to Ja'Lynn Polk for 24 yds for a TD (Grady Gross KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CALDrive 13PUNT
12 plays · 25 yds · 2:262% → 2%
Q2 3:58
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+6
97.8%
Isaiah Ifanse run for 6 yds to the CAL 31Similar
Q2 3:21
2ND & 4
OWN 31
+6
97.6%
Ben Finley pass complete to Taj Davis for 6 yds to the CAL 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 3:00
1ST & 10
OWN 37
+7
97.7%
Ben Finley pass complete to Marquis Montgomery for 7 yds to the CAL 44Similar
Q2 2:30
2ND & 3
OWN 44
+2
98.2%
Ben Finley pass complete to Taj Davis for 2 yds to the CAL 46Similar
Q2 2:06
3RD & 1
OWN 46
+8
98.2%
Isaiah Ifanse run for 8 yds to the WASH 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 1:56
1ST & 10
OPP 46
0
98.2%
Ben Finley pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 1:50
2ND & 10
OPP 46
0
98.2%
Ben Finley pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 1:50
3RD & 10
OPP 46
-5
98.3%
California Penalty, False Start (-5 Yards) to the CAL 49Similar
Q2 1:45
3RD & 15
OWN 49
+1
98.2%
Ben Finley pass complete to Taj Davis for 1 yd to the 50 yard lineSimilar
Q2 1:32
4TH & 14
50
0
98.5%
Lachlan Wilson punt for 50 yds for a touchbackSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WASHDrive 14TD
6 plays · 80 yds · 0:3898% → 99%
Q2 1:22
1ST & 10
OWN 20
0
97.6%
Michael Penix Jr. pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 1:15
2ND & 10
OWN 20
+9
97.6%
Michael Penix Jr. pass complete to Ja'Lynn Polk for 9 yds to the WASH 29Similar
Q2 1:04
3RD & 1
OWN 29
+11
97.7%
Sam Adams II run for 11 yds to the WASH 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:59
1ST & 10
OWN 40
+12
97.8%
Michael Penix Jr. pass complete to Ja'Lynn Polk for 12 yds to the CAL 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:52
1ST & 10
OPP 48
+13
97.8%
Michael Penix Jr. pass complete to Ja'Lynn Polk for 13 yds to the CAL 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:44
1ST & 10
OPP 35
+35
99.1%
Michael Penix Jr. pass complete to Rome Odunze for 35 yds for a TD (Grady Gross KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CALDrive 15END OF HALF
3 plays · 15 yds · 0:311% → 1%
Q2 0:31
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+10
99.2%
Ashton Stredick run for 10 yds to the CAL 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:00
1ST & 10
OWN 35
+5
99.2%
Ashton Stredick run for 5 yds to the CAL 40Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WASHDrive 16TD
8 plays · 68 yds · 3:2399% → 100%
Q3 14:51
1ST & 10
OWN 32
+21
99.2%
Michael Penix Jr. pass complete to Ja'Lynn Polk for 21 yds to the CAL 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 14:01
1ST & 10
OPP 47
0
99.3%
Michael Penix Jr. pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 13:50
2ND & 10
OPP 47
+18
99.3%
Dillon Johnson run for 18 yds to the CAL 29 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 13:08
1ST & 10
OPP 29
+5
99.3%
Michael Penix Jr. pass complete to Ja'Lynn Polk for 5 yds to the CAL 24Similar
Q3 12:25
2ND & 5
OPP 24
+8
99.4%
Dillon Johnson run for 8 yds to the CAL 16 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 12:04
1ST & 10
OPP 16
+3
99.4%
Dillon Johnson run for 3 yds to the CAL 13Similar
Q3 11:28
2ND & 7
OPP 13
+13
99.6%
Michael Penix Jr. pass complete to Rome Odunze for 13 yds for a TD (Grady Gross KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CALDrive 17PUNT
5 plays · 5 yds · 1:301% → 0%
Q3 11:15
1ST & 10
OWN 28
-3
99.5%
Jaydn Ott run for a loss of 3 yards to the CAL 25Similar
Q3 10:42
2ND & 13
OWN 25
+3
99.6%
Ben Finley pass complete to Jaydn Ott for 3 yds to the CAL 28Similar
Q3 10:00
3RD & 10
OWN 28
+5
99.6%
Ben Finley run for 5 yds to the CAL 33Similar
Q3 9:45
4TH & 5
OWN 33
0
99.6%
Lachlan Wilson punt for 50 yds, fair catch by Germie Bernard at the WASH 17Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WASHDrive 18DOWNS
8 plays · 60 yds · 4:45100% → 100%
Q3 9:22
1ST & 10
OWN 17
+4
99.6%
Tybo Rogers run for 4 yds to the WASH 21Similar
Q3 8:26
2ND & 6
OWN 21
+7
99.7%
Michael Penix Jr. pass complete to Jack Westover for 7 yds to the WASH 28 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 8:14
1ST & 10
OWN 28
+6
99.7%
Dillon Johnson run for 6 yds to the WASH 34Similar
Q3 7:05
2ND & 4
OWN 34
+35
99.7%
Michael Penix Jr. pass complete to Ja'Lynn Polk for 35 yds to the CAL 31 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 6:29
1ST & 10
OPP 31
0
99.7%
Washington Penalty, Illegal Touching (Devin Culp) to the CAL 31Similar
Q3 5:44
2ND & 10
OPP 31
+4
99.7%
Michael Penix Jr. pass complete to Will Nixon for 4 yds to the CAL 27Similar
Q3 5:20
3RD & 6
OPP 27
+4
99.7%
Michael Penix Jr. pass complete to Will Nixon for 4 yds to the CAL 23Similar
Q3 4:37
4TH & 2
OPP 23
0
99.8%
Michael Penix Jr. run for no gain to the CAL 23Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CALDrive 19TD
11 plays · 77 yds · 2:310% → 0%
Q3 4:20
1ST & 10
OWN 23
+8
99.8%
Jaydn Ott run for 8 yds to the CAL 31Similar
Q3 4:11
2ND & 2
OWN 31
0
99.8%
Ben Finley pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 4:04
3RD & 2
OWN 31
+7
99.8%
Jaydn Ott run for 7 yds to the CAL 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 3:30
1ST & 10
OWN 38
+50
99.8%
Ben Finley pass complete to Jeremiah Hunter for 50 yds to the WASH 12 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 3:21
1ST & 10
OPP 12
0
99.8%
Ben Finley pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 3:15
2ND & 10
OPP 12
-5
99.8%
California Penalty, Ineligible Downfield on Pass (-5 Yards) to the WASH 17Similar
Q3 3:09
2ND & 15
OPP 17
0
99.8%
Ben Finley pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 2:50
3RD & 15
OPP 17
+9
99.8%
Washington Penalty, Face Mask (9 yards) (9 Yards) to the WASH 8 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 2:41
1ST & GOAL
OPP 8
0
99.8%
Jaydn Ott run for no gain to the WASH 8Similar
Q3 2:07
2ND & GOAL
OPP 8
+6
99.8%
Jaydn Ott run for 6 yds to the WASH 2Similar
Q3 1:49
3RD & GOAL
OPP 2
+2
99.8%
Jaydn Ott run for 2 yds for a TD (Michael Luckhurst KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WASHDrive 20PUNT
8 plays · 7 yds · 3:05100% → 100%
Q3 1:31
1ST & 10
OWN 25
0
99.8%
Tybo Rogers run for no gain to the WASH 25Similar
Q3 0:41
2ND & 10
OWN 25
+8
99.8%
Dylan Morris pass complete to Camden Sirmon for 8 yds to the WASH 33Similar
Q3 0:00
3RD & 2
OWN 33
+3
99.8%
Tybo Rogers run for 3 yds to the WASH 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 14:55
1ST & 10
OWN 36
-5
99.8%
Dylan Morris run for a loss of 5 yards to the WASH 31Similar
Q4 14:17
2ND & 15
OWN 31
+1
99.8%
Tybo Rogers run for 1 yd to the WASH 32Similar
Q4 13:42
3RD & 14
OWN 32
0
99.8%
Dylan Morris pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 13:26
4TH & 14
OWN 32
0
99.8%
Jack McCallister punt for 55 yds, downed at the CAL 13Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CALDrive 21TD
8 plays · 87 yds · 2:130% → 0%
Q4 13:01
1ST & 10
OWN 13
+10
99.9%
Sam Jackson V pass complete to Brian Hightower for 10 yds to the CAL 23 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 12:56
1ST & 10
OWN 23
0
99.9%
Sam Jackson V pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 12:45
2ND & 10
OWN 23
+4
99.9%
Isaiah Ifanse run for 4 yds to the CAL 27Similar
Q4 12:11
3RD & 6
OWN 27
+26
99.9%
Sam Jackson V pass complete to Jack Endries for 26 yds to the WASH 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 11:55
1ST & 10
OPP 47
+5
99.9%
Isaiah Ifanse run for 5 yds to the WASH 42Similar
Q4 11:21
2ND & 5
OPP 42
+9
99.9%
Sam Jackson V pass complete to Brian Hightower for 9 yds to the WASH 33 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 11:10
1ST & 10
OPP 33
+13
99.9%
Sam Jackson V pass complete to Marquis Montgomery for 13 yds to the WASH 20 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 10:48
1ST & 10
OPP 20
+20
99.9%
Sam Jackson V pass complete to Trond Grizzell for 20 yds for a TD (Michael Luckhurst PAT MISSED)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WASHDrive 22TD
10 plays · 75 yds · 3:34100% → 100%
Q4 10:42
1ST & 10
OWN 25
0
99.9%
Dylan Morris pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 10:21
2ND & 10
OWN 25
+5
99.9%
Tybo Rogers run for 5 yds to the WASH 30Similar
Q4 10:00
3RD & 5
OWN 30
+37
99.9%
Dylan Morris pass complete to Tybo Rogers for 47 yds to the CAL 23 for a 1ST down Washington Penalty, Illegal Block (-10 Yards) to the CAL 33 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 9:30
1ST & 10
OPP 33
-8
99.9%
Tybo Rogers run for a loss of 8 yards to the CAL 41Similar
Q4 9:00
2ND & 18
OPP 41
+12
99.9%
Dylan Morris pass complete to Rashid Williams for 12 yds to the CAL 29Similar
Q4 8:30
3RD & 6
OPP 29
-2
99.9%
Sam Adams II run for a loss of 2 yards to the CAL 31Similar
Q4 8:00
4TH & 3
OPP 31
+18
99.9%
Dylan Morris pass complete to Rashid Williams for 18 yds to the CAL 13 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 7:30
1ST & 10
OPP 13
+4
99.9%
Sam Adams II run for 4 yds to the CAL 9Similar
Q4 7:08
2ND & 6
OPP 9
+9
99.9%
Sam Adams II run for 9 yds for a TD (Grady Gross KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CALDrive 23TD
13 plays · 75 yds · 3:150% → 0%
Q4 6:55
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+3
99.9%
Ashton Stredick run for 3 yds to the CAL 28Similar
Q4 6:46
2ND & 7
OWN 28
+6
99.9%
Ashton Stredick run for 6 yds to the CAL 34Similar
Q4 6:00
3RD & 1
OWN 34
+3
99.9%
Ashton Stredick run for 3 yds to the CAL 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 5:55
1ST & 10
OWN 37
0
99.9%
Sam Jackson V pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 5:41
2ND & 10
OWN 37
+3
99.9%
Sam Jackson V run for 3 yds to the CAL 40Similar
Q4 5:00
3RD & 7
OWN 40
+13
99.9%
Sam Jackson V pass complete to Brian Hightower for 13 yds to the WASH 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 4:39
1ST & 10
OPP 47
0
99.9%
Sam Jackson V pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 4:11
2ND & 10
OPP 47
+11
99.9%
Sam Jackson V pass complete to Marquis Montgomery for 11 yds to the WASH 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 4:01
1ST & 10
OPP 36
+33
99.9%
Sam Jackson V pass complete to Trond Grizzell for 33 yds to the WASH 3 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 3:45
1ST & GOAL
OPP 3
0
99.9%
Sam Jackson V pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 3:40
2ND & GOAL
OPP 3
+3
99.9%
Ashton Stredick run for 3 yds for a TD (Mateen Bhaghani KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WASHDrive 24PUNT
5 plays · 3 yds · 1:31100% → 100%
Q4 3:18
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+1
99.9%
Tybo Rogers run for 1 yd to the WASH 26Similar
Q4 2:41
2ND & 9
OWN 26
+2
99.9%
Tybo Rogers run for 2 yds to the WASH 28Similar
Q4 1:58
3RD & 7
OWN 28
0
99.9%
Dylan Morris pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 1:47
4TH & 7
OWN 28
+2
99.9%
Jack McCallister punt for 56 yds , Jeremiah Hunter returns for 2 yds to the CAL 18Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CALDrive 25END OF GAME
6 plays · 58 yds · 1:400% → 0%
Q4 1:40
1ST & 10
OWN 18
+8
99.9%
Sam Jackson V pass complete to Jack Endries for 8 yds to the CAL 26 for a 1ST down Washington Penalty, Personal Foul (Jacob Lane) to the CAL 26 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 1:14
1ST & 10
OWN 26
+28
99.9%
Sam Jackson V pass complete to Trond Grizzell for 13 yds to the WASH 39 for a 1ST down Washington Penalty, Personal Foul (Jacob Lane) to the WASH 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 0:55
1ST & 10
OPP 46
+13
99.9%
Jaivian Thomas run for 13 yds to the WASH 33 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 0:40
1ST & 10
OPP 33
+8
99.9%
Jaivian Thomas run for 8 yds to the WASH 25Similar
Q4 0:20
2ND & 2
OPP 25
+1
99.9%
Jaivian Thomas run for 1 yd to the WASH 24Similar
Q4 0:00
3RD & 1
OPP 24
0
99.9%
Jaivian Thomas run for no gain to the WASH 24Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
TD · Q2 4:08
Michael Penix Jr. pass complete to Ja'Lynn Polk for 24 yds for a TD (Grady Gross KICK)
+3.2
TD · Q1 2:19
Michael Penix Jr. pass complete to Ja'Lynn Polk for 8 yds for a TD (Grady Gross KICK)
+1.4
TD · Q2 0:44
Michael Penix Jr. pass complete to Rome Odunze for 35 yds for a TD (Grady Gross KICK)
+1.2
YardLine · model v10Model estimate - not betting advice · Data provided by CollegeFootballData.com