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ARIZ

Arizona 21 at Stanford 20

STAN
2023 · Week 4 · Sep 23, 2023 · Stanford Stadium
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Win probability · STAN
modelSTAN aheadARIZ aheadconfidence bandkey playSTAN scoreARIZ score
0%25%50%75%100%Q1Q2Q3Q4FGTDTDTDTDTDTDFGEnd of Game
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q2 11:38 · Aidan Flintoft punt for 49 yds
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Pregame priorHome team on offenseScore diff ÷ offense timeoutsGarbage-time factorScore diff ÷ seconds remainingScore differential
+34.5+17.30−17.3−34.5Q1Q2Q3Q4Play 51Pregame prior−27.1Home team on offense−1.2Score diff ÷ offense timeouts−0.5Garbage-time factor−0.7Score diff ÷ seconds remaining−0.3Score differential−0.3
This game in five plays
  1. TD · Q2 5:44: Bryce Farrell run for 2 yds for a TD (Joshua Karty KICK) — STAN win probability +9.8 pts (now 37%) (top driver: STAN has the ball).
  2. TD · Q3 5:53: Jayden de Laura run for 7 yds for a TD (Tyler Loop KICK) — ARIZ win probability +10.9 pts (now 75%) (top driver: ARIZ has the ball).
  3. TD · Q3 1:49: Sedrick Irvin run for 1 yd for a TD (Joshua Karty KICK) — STAN win probability +24.1 pts (now 57%) (top driver: STAN has the ball).
  4. TD · Q4 7:42: DJ Williams run for 2 yds for a TD (Tyler Loop KICK) — ARIZ win probability +31.1 pts (now 82%) (top driver: ARIZ has the ball).
  5. FG · Q4 3:09: Joshua Karty 46 yd FG GOOD — STAN win probability +9.0 pts (now 42%) (top driver: STAN has the ball).
Was that the right call?

Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works

Fourth downs
STAN made the numbers' call on 8 of 9ARIZ made the numbers' call on 5 of 7
  1. Q1 14:14ARIZ 4th & 12 at ARIZ 23, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 78.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    78.2%−0.2
    22% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    78.4%
    average punt
  2. Q1 10:35STAN 4th & 17 at ARIZ 17, tied
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 23.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    23.3%−0.2
    13% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    23.4%
    80% to make
    Punt
    23.0%−0.5
    average punt
  3. Q1 5:44ARIZ 4th & 10 at STAN 36, down 3
    Close callPunted · 73.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    72.9%−<0.1
    30% to convert
    Field goal
    72.9%
    42% to make
    PuntTheir call
    72.8%−0.1
    average punt
  4. Q1 4:15STAN 4th & 6 at STAN 24, up 3
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 27.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    27.0%−0.3
    38% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    27.2%
    average punt
  5. Q1 2:17ARIZ 4th & 2 at STAN 25, down 3
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 71.7% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    71.8%
    57% to convert
    Field goal
    71.4%−0.4
    66% to make
    Punt
    69.5%−2.3
    average punt
  6. Q1 0:00STAN 4th & 18 at ARIZ 33, up 3
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 29.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    28.8%−0.7
    13% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    29.5%
    49% to make
    Punt
    29.1%−0.4
    average punt
  7. Q2 11:38STAN 4th & 10 at STAN 45, down 4
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 27.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    27.2%−0.6
    29% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    27.8%
    average punt
  8. Q2 10:42ARIZ 4th & 5 at ARIZ 10, up 4
    Close callPunted · 70.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    70.2%
    40% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    70.1%−0.1
    average punt
  9. Q2 2:07ARIZ 4th & 11 at STAN 47, down 3
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 59.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    58.3%−0.3
    26% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    58.6%
    average punt
  10. Q2 0:45STAN 4th & 2 at STAN 14, up 3
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 38.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    36.9%−1.2
    57% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    38.1%
    average punt
  11. Q3 11:38STAN 4th & 11 at STAN 41, up 3
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 43.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    42.7%−2.5
    26% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    45.2%
    average punt
  12. Q3 11:38ARIZ 4th & 1 at ARIZ 43, down 3
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 56.2% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    57.3%
    70% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    Punt
    54.8%−2.5
    average punt
  13. Q3 0:06ARIZ 4th & 10 at ARIZ 25, down 3
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 40.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    40.1%−3.2
    28% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    43.3%
    average punt
  14. Q4 15:00STAN 4th & 1 at ARIZ 40, up 3
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 57.1% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    57.1%
    70% to convert
    Field goal
    50.1%−7.0
    34% to make
    Punt
    50.7%−6.4
    average punt
  15. Q4 11:40STAN 4th & 6 at ARIZ 33, up 3
    Numbers favored go for it by 1.4 ptsKicked a field goal · 63.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    63.7%
    40% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    62.2%−1.4
    49% to make
    Punt
    60.1%−3.6
    average punt
  16. Q4 3:09STAN 4th & 17 at ARIZ 28, down 4
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 27.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    20.2%−7.3
    14% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    27.5%
    60% to make
    Punt
    15.2%−12.3
    average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
STAN made the numbers' call on 2 of 2ARIZ made the numbers' call on 2 of 3
  1. Q2 13:37ARIZ Touchdown, up 3 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    72.6%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    72.6%−0.1
    45% to convert
  2. Q2 5:44STAN Touchdown, up 2 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    38.2%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    38.1%−0.1
    45% to convert
  3. Q3 5:53ARIZ Touchdown, up 3 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    66.4%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    66.2%−0.2
    45% to convert
  4. Q3 1:49STAN Touchdown, up 2 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    52.8%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    52.6%−0.2
    45% to convert
  5. Q4 7:42ARIZ Touchdown, up 3 before the try
    Close callKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    66.3%−0.2
    97% to make
    Go for two
    66.5%
    45% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chart
ARIZDrive 1PUNT
5 plays · -2 yds · 0:4684% → 84%
Q1 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+3
15.8%
Jayden de Laura pass complete to Tetairoa McMillan for 3 yds to the ARIZ 28Similar
Q1 15:00
2ND & 7
OWN 28
0
15.8%
Jayden de Laura pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 15:00
3RD & 7
OWN 28
-5
15.8%
Arizona Penalty, Delay Of Game (Jayden de Laura) to the ARIZ 23Similar
Q1 15:00
3RD & 12
OWN 23
0
15.8%
Jayden de Laura pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 14:14
4TH & 12
OWN 23
0
16.2%
Kyle Ostendorp punt for 32 ydsSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
STANDrive 2FG
8 plays · 38 yds · 3:3916% → 18%
Q1 14:14
1ST & 10
OWN 45
0
16.2%
Ashton Daniels pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 14:14
2ND & 10
OWN 45
+3
16.2%
Justin Lamson run for 3 yds to the STAN 48Similar
Q1 14:14
3RD & 7
OWN 48
+45
16.2%
Sedrick Irvin run for 45 yds to the ARIZ 7 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 14:14
1ST & GOAL
OPP 7
0
16.2%
E.J. Smith run for no gain to the ARIZ 7Similar
Q1 14:14
2ND & GOAL
OPP 7
-15
16.2%
LAMSON, Justin pass to the right incomplete intended for YUROSEK, Benjamin thrown to the ARI0. PENALTY STA Pass Interference on AYOMANOR, Elic enforced 15 yards to the ARI22 [NHSG]. NO PLAY (replay the down).Similar
Q1 14:14
2ND & GOAL
OPP 22
+2
16.2%
Bryce Farrell run for 2 yds to the ARIZ 20Similar
Q1 14:14
3RD & GOAL
OPP 20
+3
16.2%
Justin Lamson run for 3 yds to the ARIZ 17Similar
Q1 10:35
4TH & GOAL
OPP 17
+35
18.2%
Joshua Karty 35 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ARIZDrive 3PUNT
12 plays · 39 yds · 4:5182% → 79%
Q1 10:35
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+5
18.2%
Michael Wiley run for 5 yds to the ARIZ 30Similar
Q1 10:35
2ND & 5
OWN 30
+3
18.2%
Michael Wiley run for 3 yds to the ARIZ 33Similar
Q1 10:35
3RD & 2
OWN 33
+9
18.2%
Jayden de Laura pass complete to Jacob Cowing for 9 yds to the ARIZ 42 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 10:35
1ST & 10
OWN 42
+9
18.0%
Jonah Coleman run for 9 yds to the STAN 49Similar
Q1 10:35
2ND & 1
OPP 49
+2
17.9%
Jonah Coleman run for 2 yds to the STAN 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 10:35
1ST & 10
OPP 47
+1
18.0%
Jayden de Laura pass complete to Jonah Coleman for 1 yd to the STAN 46Similar
Q1 10:35
2ND & 9
OPP 46
+10
18.0%
DJ Williams run for 10 yds to the STAN 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 10:35
1ST & 10
OPP 36
0
18.0%
DJ Williams run for no gain to the STAN 36Similar
Q1 10:35
2ND & 10
OPP 36
0
18.0%
Jayden de Laura pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 5:54
3RD & 10
OPP 36
0
20.9%
Jayden de Laura pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 5:44
4TH & 10
OPP 36
0
21.5%
Kyle Ostendorp punt for 36 yds for a touchbackSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
STANDrive 4PUNT
4 plays · 4 yds · 1:2921% → 22%
Q1 5:44
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+1
21.3%
Justin Lamson run for 1 yd to the STAN 21Similar
Q1 5:44
2ND & 9
OWN 21
0
21.3%
Justin Lamson pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 5:44
3RD & 9
OWN 21
+3
21.1%
Sedrick Irvin run for 3 yds to the STAN 24Similar
Q1 4:15
4TH & 6
OWN 24
0
21.9%
Connor Weselman punt for 44 yds , returns for no gain to the ARIZ 43Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ARIZDrive 5DOWNS
6 plays · 32 yds · 1:5878% → 77%
Q1 4:15
1ST & 10
OWN 43
0
22.0%
Jayden de Laura pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 4:15
2ND & 10
OWN 43
+24
22.1%
Jonah Coleman run for 24 yds to the STAN 33 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 4:15
1ST & 10
OPP 33
+8
21.5%
Jayden de Laura pass complete to Jacob Cowing for 8 yds to the STAN 25Similar
Q1 4:15
2ND & 2
OPP 25
0
21.5%
Jonah Coleman run for no gain to the STAN 25Similar
Q1 4:15
3RD & 2
OPP 25
0
21.8%
DJ Williams run for no gain to the STAN 25Similar
Q1 2:17
4TH & 2
OPP 25
0
23.2%
Jayden de Laura pass incompleteSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
STANDrive 6MISSED FG
7 plays · 42 yds · 2:1724% → 25%
Q1 2:17
1ST & 10
OWN 25
0
23.6%
Ashton Daniels pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 2:17
2ND & 10
OWN 25
+25
23.5%
Ashton Daniels pass complete to Benjamin Yurosek for 25 yds to the 50 yard line for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 2:17
1ST & 10
50
+25
24.5%
Ashton Daniels pass complete to Tiger Bachmeier for 25 yds to the ARIZ 25 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 2:17
2ND & 16
OPP 31
0
24.3%
Ashton Daniels pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 2:17
3RD & 16
OPP 31
-2
23.9%
Sedrick Irvin run for a loss of 2 yards to the ARIZ 33Similar
Q1 2:17
1ST & 10
OPP 25
-6
24.9%
Ashton Daniels sacked for a loss of 6 yards to the ARIZ 31Similar
Q1 0:00
4TH & 18
OPP 33
+51
24.8%
Joshua Karty 51 yd FG MISSEDSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ARIZDrive 7TD
3 plays · 67 yds · 1:2375% → 78%
Q2 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 33
+14
25.1%
Jayden de Laura pass complete to Tetairoa McMillan for 14 yds to the ARIZ 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 47
+17
24.3%
Jayden de Laura pass complete to Montana Lemonious-Craig for 17 yds to the STAN 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 13:37
1ST & 10
OPP 36
+36
21.6%
Jayden de Laura pass complete to Tanner McLachlan for 36 yds for a TD (Tyler Loop KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
STANDrive 8PUNT
6 plays · 20 yds · 1:5923% → 23%
Q2 13:37
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+20
22.8%
Ashton Daniels pass complete to Tiger Bachmeier for 20 yds to the STAN 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 13:37
1ST & 10
OWN 45
0
23.9%
Ashton Daniels pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 13:37
2ND & 10
OWN 45
-1
23.3%
Sedrick Irvin run for a loss of 1 yard to the STAN 44Similar
Q2 13:37
3RD & 11
OWN 44
-5
22.8%
Stanford Penalty, False Start (-5 Yards) to the STAN 39Similar
Q2 13:37
3RD & 16
OWN 39
+6
22.6%
Ashton Daniels pass complete to Elic Ayomanor for 6 yds to the STAN 45Similar
Q2 11:38
4TH & 10
OWN 45
0
23.3%
Aidan Flintoft punt for 49 ydsSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ARIZDrive 9PUNT
5 plays · 5 yds · 0:5676% → 74%
Q2 11:38
1ST & 10
OWN 5
+5
24.1%
Jonah Coleman run for 5 yds to the ARIZ 10Similar
Q2 11:38
2ND & 5
OWN 10
0
23.7%
Jayden de Laura pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 11:38
3RD & 5
OWN 10
0
24.0%
Jayden de Laura pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 10:42
4TH & 5
OWN 10
0
24.9%
Kyle Ostendorp punt for 40 ydsSimilar
Q2 10:42
1ST & 10
50
-10
25.9%
DANIELS, Ashton pass deep to the left complete for 34 yards to BACHMEIER, Tiger caught at the ARI19 and advanced to the ARI16 (JOHNSON, Dalton). PENALTY STA Holding on BERZINS, Logan enforced 10 yards from the ARI50 to the STA40 [NHSG]. NO PLAY (replay the down).Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
STANDrive 10TD
11 plays · 50 yds · 4:5825% → 36%
Q2 10:42
1ST & 20
OWN 40
0
24.6%
Ashton Daniels pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 10:42
2ND & 20
OWN 40
+5
24.5%
Justin Lamson run for 5 yds to the STAN 45Similar
Q2 10:42
3RD & 15
OWN 45
+26
24.0%
Justin Lamson pass complete to Bryce Farrell for 26 yds to the ARIZ 29 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 10:42
1ST & 10
OPP 29
-7
26.8%
Justin Lamson sacked by Dalton Johnson for a loss of 7 yards to the ARIZ 36Similar
Q2 10:42
2ND & 17
OPP 36
+15
25.1%
Justin Lamson run for 15 yds to the ARIZ 21Similar
Q2 10:42
3RD & 2
OPP 21
+2
25.9%
Justin Lamson run for 2 yds to the ARIZ 19 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 10:42
1ST & 10
OPP 19
+11
26.8%
Justin Lamson pass complete to Elic Ayomanor for 11 yds to the ARIZ 8 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 10:42
1ST & GOAL
OPP 8
-2
26.8%
Justin Lamson run for a loss of 2 yards to the ARIZ 10Similar
Q2 10:42
2ND & GOAL
OPP 10
-1
26.8%
Bryce Farrell run for a loss of 1 yard to the ARIZ 11Similar
Q2 5:44
1ST & GOAL
OPP 2
+2
36.6%
Bryce Farrell run for 2 yds for a TD (Joshua Karty KICK)Similar
Q2 5:44
3RD & GOAL
OPP 11
+9
35.6%
DANIELS, Ashton pass to the right intercepted by DAVIS, Tacario at the ARI0 intended for REUBEN, Mudia. Davis return for 33 yards to the ARI33, out of bounds, clock 05:44. PENALTY ARI Pass Interference on DAVIS, Tacario enforced 9 yards to the ARI2 and results in automatic 1ST DOWN [NHSG]. NO PLAY (replay the down).Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ARIZDrive 11PUNT
10 plays · 28 yds · 3:3767% → 63%
Q2 5:44
1ST & 10
OWN 25
-7
32.9%
Jayden de Laura sacked by Zach Buckey and Anthony Franklin for a loss of 7 yards to the ARIZ 18Similar
Q2 5:44
2ND & 17
OWN 18
+9
33.2%
Jayden de Laura pass complete to Jonah Coleman for 9 yds to the ARIZ 27Similar
Q2 5:44
3RD & 8
OWN 27
+12
33.6%
Jayden de Laura pass complete to Jonah Coleman for 12 yds to the ARIZ 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 5:44
1ST & 10
OWN 39
+8
31.6%
Jonah Coleman run for 8 yds to the ARIZ 47Similar
Q2 5:44
2ND & 2
OWN 47
+7
30.8%
Jonah Coleman run for 7 yds to the STAN 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 5:44
1ST & 10
OPP 46
+4
30.6%
Jonah Coleman run for 4 yds to the STAN 42Similar
Q2 5:44
2ND & 6
OPP 42
0
30.6%
Rayshon Luke run for no gain to the STAN 42Similar
Q2 5:44
3RD & 6
OPP 42
0
30.9%
Jayden de Laura pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 5:44
4TH & 6
OPP 42
-5
32.2%
Arizona Penalty, Delay Of Game (Kyle Ostendorp) to the STAN 47Similar
Q2 2:07
4TH & 11
OPP 47
0
36.8%
Kyle Ostendorp punt for 41 ydsSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
STANDrive 12PUNT
7 plays · 8 yds · 1:2236% → 36%
Q2 2:07
1ST & 10
OWN 6
+6
36.2%
Justin Lamson run for 6 yds to the STAN 12Similar
Q2 2:07
2ND & 4
OWN 12
-5
36.4%
Stanford Penalty, False Start (-5 Yards) to the STAN 7Similar
Q2 1:06
2ND & 9
OWN 7
+8
36.9%
Justin Lamson run for 8 yds to the STAN 15Similar
Q2 1:06
3RD & 1
OWN 15
-5
36.4%
Stanford Penalty, False Start (Benjamin Yurosek) to the STAN 10Similar
Q2 1:06
3RD & 6
OWN 10
+4
36.3%
Sedrick Irvin run for 4 yds to the STAN 14Similar
Q2 0:45
4TH & 2
OWN 14
0
35.9%
Aidan Flintoft punt for 52 yds, downed at the ARIZ 34Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ARIZDrive 13END OF HALF
5 plays · 13 yds · 0:4561% → 61%
Q2 0:45
1ST & 10
OWN 34
+7
39.0%
Jayden de Laura pass complete to Jacob Cowing for 7 yds to the ARIZ 41Similar
Q2 0:45
2ND & 3
OWN 41
0
36.7%
Jayden de Laura pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 0:15
3RD & 3
OWN 41
+7
38.2%
Jayden de Laura run for 7 yds to the ARIZ 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:00
1ST & 10
OWN 48
-1
39.1%
Jayden de Laura sacked by David Bailey for a loss of 1 yard to the ARIZ 47Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
STANDrive 14PUNT
7 plays · 16 yds · 3:2238% → 40%
Q3 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 25
0
37.7%
Ashton Daniels pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 15:00
2ND & 10
OWN 25
+7
37.4%
Justin Lamson run for 7 yds to the STAN 32Similar
Q3 15:00
3RD & 3
OWN 32
+10
37.2%
Justin Lamson pass complete to Benjamin Yurosek for 10 yds to the STAN 42 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 42
-1
39.6%
Sedrick Irvin run for a loss of 1 yard to the STAN 41Similar
Q3 15:00
2ND & 11
OWN 41
-7
38.5%
Bryce Farrell run for a loss of 7 yards to the STAN 34Similar
Q3 15:00
3RD & 18
OWN 34
+7
36.1%
Sedrick Irvin run for 7 yds to the STAN 41Similar
Q3 11:38
4TH & 11
OWN 41
0
39.8%
Connor Weselman punt for 25 ydsSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ARIZDrive 15TD
11 plays · 66 yds · 5:4560% → 75%
Q3 11:38
1ST & 10
OWN 34
+5
39.8%
DJ Williams run for 5 yds to the ARIZ 39Similar
Q3 11:38
2ND & 5
OWN 39
+4
38.0%
DJ Williams run for 4 yds to the ARIZ 43Similar
Q3 11:38
3RD & 1
OWN 43
0
38.0%
DJ Williams run for no gain to the ARIZ 43Similar
Q3 11:38
4TH & 1
OWN 43
+3
39.9%
DJ Williams run for 3 yds to the ARIZ 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 11:38
1ST & 10
OWN 46
+1
37.7%
Jayden de Laura run for 1 yd to the ARIZ 47Similar
Q3 11:38
2ND & 9
OWN 47
+25
37.9%
Jayden de Laura pass complete to Jacob Cowing for 25 yds to the STAN 28 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 11:38
1ST & 10
OPP 28
+4
35.7%
Rayshon Luke run for 4 yds to the STAN 24Similar
Q3 11:38
2ND & 6
OPP 24
0
35.7%
Jayden de Laura pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 11:38
3RD & 6
OPP 24
+10
37.0%
Jayden de Laura pass complete to Tetairoa McMillan for 10 yds to the STAN 14 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 11:38
1ST & 10
OPP 14
+7
35.7%
Jayden de Laura pass complete to Jacob Cowing for 7 yds to the STAN 7Similar
Q3 5:53
2ND & 3
OPP 7
+7
24.8%
Jayden de Laura run for 7 yds for a TD (Tyler Loop KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
STANDrive 16TD
12 plays · 75 yds · 4:0430% → 57%
Q3 5:53
1ST & 10
OWN 25
0
30.3%
Justin Lamson pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 5:53
2ND & 10
OWN 25
+13
30.0%
Ashton Daniels pass complete to Tiger Bachmeier for 13 yds to the STAN 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 5:53
1ST & 10
OWN 38
-7
31.5%
Ashton Daniels sacked by Taylor Upshaw for a loss of 7 yards to the STAN 31Similar
Q3 4:21
2ND & 17
OWN 31
+5
29.4%
Ashton Daniels pass complete to Sedrick Irvin for 5 yds to the STAN 36Similar
Q3 4:21
3RD & 12
OWN 36
+35
28.6%
Ashton Daniels pass complete to Tiger Bachmeier for 35 yds to the ARIZ 29 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 4:21
1ST & 10
OPP 29
+7
36.4%
Sedrick Irvin run for 7 yds to the ARIZ 22Similar
Q3 4:21
2ND & 3
OPP 22
+3
36.3%
Sedrick Irvin run for 3 yds to the ARIZ 19 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 4:21
1ST & 10
OPP 19
0
36.3%
Ashton Daniels pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 4:21
2ND & 10
OPP 19
-2
36.3%
Ashton Daniels sacked by Isaiah Ward for a loss of 2 yards to the ARIZ 21Similar
Q3 2:06
3RD & 12
OPP 21
+20
32.9%
Ashton Daniels pass complete to Elic Ayomanor for 20 yds to the ARIZ 1 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 1:49
1ST & GOAL
OPP 1
+1
57.0%
Sedrick Irvin run for 1 yd for a TD (Joshua Karty KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ARIZDrive 17PUNT
4 plays · 0 yds · 1:4349% → 44%
Q3 1:49
1ST & 10
OWN 25
-1
51.0%
Jayden de Laura pass complete to Tetairoa McMillan for a loss of 1 yard to the ARIZ 24Similar
Q3 1:49
2ND & 11
OWN 24
+1
51.6%
Jonah Coleman run for 1 yd to the ARIZ 25Similar
Q3 1:49
3RD & 10
OWN 25
0
52.9%
Jayden de Laura pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 0:06
4TH & 10
OWN 25
0
56.1%
Kyle Ostendorp punt for 42 ydsSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
STANDrive 18MISSED FG
10 plays · 34 yds · 3:2053% → 62%
Q3 0:00
1ST & 10
OWN 33
+7
53.4%
Ashton Daniels run for 7 yds to the STAN 40Similar
Q4 15:00
2ND & 3
OWN 40
+11
56.3%
Ashton Daniels pass complete to Sam Roush for 11 yds to the ARIZ 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 49
+6
57.6%
Ashton Daniels pass complete to Sam Roush for 6 yds to the ARIZ 43Similar
Q4 15:00
2ND & 4
OPP 43
0
57.8%
Ashton Daniels pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 15:00
3RD & 4
OPP 43
+3
56.7%
Ashton Daniels pass complete to Casey Filkins for 3 yds to the ARIZ 40Similar
Q4 15:00
4TH & 1
OPP 40
+3
54.3%
Ashton Daniels run for 3 yds to the ARIZ 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 37
0
57.9%
Ashton Daniels pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 15:00
2ND & 10
OPP 37
+4
57.4%
Ashton Daniels pass complete to Elic Ayomanor for 4 yds to the ARIZ 33Similar
Q4 15:00
3RD & 6
OPP 33
0
57.0%
Ashton Daniels pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 11:40
4TH & 6
OPP 33
+51
61.6%
Joshua Karty 51 yd FG MISSEDSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ARIZDrive 19TD
10 plays · 67 yds · 3:5844% → 82%
Q4 11:40
1ST & 10
OWN 33
+15
55.8%
Noah Fifita pass complete to Jacob Cowing for 15 yds to the ARIZ 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 11:40
1ST & 10
OWN 48
+9
52.1%
Jonah Coleman run for 9 yds to the STAN 43Similar
Q4 11:40
2ND & 1
OPP 43
+6
50.6%
Noah Fifita run for 6 yds to the STAN 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 11:40
1ST & 10
OPP 37
+18
51.2%
Noah Fifita pass complete to Tanner McLachlan for 18 yds to the STAN 19 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 11:40
1ST & 10
OPP 19
+6
48.7%
Jonah Coleman run for 6 yds to the STAN 13Similar
Q4 9:05
2ND & 4
OPP 13
+3
49.6%
Noah Fifita run for 3 yds to the STAN 10Similar
Q4 9:05
3RD & 1
OPP 10
+2
51.7%
DJ Williams run for 2 yds to the STAN 8 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 9:05
1ST & GOAL
OPP 8
+6
49.6%
DJ Williams run for 6 yds to the STAN 2Similar
Q4 7:42
2ND & GOAL
OPP 2
+2
18.5%
DJ Williams run for 2 yds for a TD (Tyler Loop KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
STANDrive 20FG
11 plays · 47 yds · 4:3331% → 42%
Q4 7:42
1ST & 10
OWN 25
0
30.7%
Ashton Daniels pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 7:42
2ND & 10
OWN 25
+1
30.2%
Justin Lamson pass complete to Bryce Farrell for 1 yd to the STAN 26Similar
Q4 7:42
3RD & 9
OWN 26
+10
28.6%
Justin Lamson run for 10 yds to the STAN 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 7:42
1ST & 10
OWN 36
+12
32.2%
DANIELS, Ashton pass to the left incomplete intended for REUBEN, Mudia thrown to the STA45. PENALTY ARI Pass Interference on PRYSOCK, Ephesians enforced at the spot of the foul for 12 yards to the STA48 and results in automatic 1ST DOWN [NHSG]. NO PLAY (replay the down).Similar
Q4 7:42
1ST & 10
OWN 48
+9
35.3%
Ashton Daniels pass complete to Sam Roush for 9 yds to the ARIZ 43Similar
Q4 7:42
2ND & 1
OPP 43
+6
36.6%
Justin Lamson run for 6 yds to the ARIZ 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 7:42
1ST & 10
OPP 37
+16
36.6%
Ashton Daniels pass complete to Mudia Reuben for 16 yds to the ARIZ 21 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 7:42
1ST & 10
OPP 21
0
38.6%
Ashton Daniels pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 7:42
2ND & 10
OPP 21
-6
38.6%
Ashton Daniels sacked by Jacob Manu and Tiaoalii Savea for a loss of 6 yards to the ARIZ 27Similar
Q4 7:42
3RD & 16
OPP 27
-1
32.7%
Stanford Penalty, Illegal Forward Pass (Ashton Daniels) to the ARIZ 24Similar
Q4 3:09
4TH & 17
OPP 28
+46
41.8%
Joshua Karty 46 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ARIZDrive 21END OF 4TH QUARTER
8 plays · 24 yds · 3:0567% → 93%
Q4 3:05
1ST & 10
OWN 11
0
33.0%
Jonah Coleman run for no gain to the ARIZ 11Similar
Q4 3:05
2ND & 10
OWN 11
+7
33.6%
Noah Fifita pass complete to Jacob Cowing for 7 yds to the ARIZ 18Similar
Q4 3:05
3RD & 3
OWN 18
+7
35.3%
Noah Fifita pass complete to Jonah Coleman for 7 yds to the ARIZ 25 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 3:05
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+6
32.5%
Rayshon Luke run for 6 yds to the ARIZ 31Similar
Q4 3:05
2ND & 4
OWN 31
+7
30.3%
DJ Williams run for 7 yds to the ARIZ 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 3:05
1ST & 10
OWN 38
0
29.6%
[NH] Kneel down by FIFITA, Noah at ARI36 (team loss of 2).Similar
Q4 0:00
2ND & 12
OWN 36
0
6.7%
[NH] Kneel down by FIFITA, Noah at ARI35 (team loss of 1), clock 00:00.Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
TD · Q4 7:42
DJ Williams run for 2 yds for a TD (Tyler Loop KICK)
-31.1
TD · Q3 1:49
Sedrick Irvin run for 1 yd for a TD (Joshua Karty KICK)
+24.1
TD · Q3 5:53
Jayden de Laura run for 7 yds for a TD (Tyler Loop KICK)
-10.9
YardLine · model v10Model estimate - not betting advice · Data provided by CollegeFootballData.com