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USC

USC 42 at Arizona State 28

ASU
2023 · Week 4 · Sep 23, 2023 · Mountain America Stadium
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Win probability · ASU
modelASU aheadUSC aheadconfidence bandkey playASU scoreUSC score
0%25%50%75%100%Q1Q2Q3Q4TDTDTDFGTDFGFGTDFGTDTDTDTDEnd of GameFG-1.4ASU 12.6%Denis Lynch 36 yd FG GOODAWAY 27 - HOME 21 · Q3 6:29
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q3 6:29 · Denis Lynch 36 yd FG GOOD
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Pregame priorHome team on offenseScore differentialGarbage-time factorScore diff ÷ seconds remainingScore diff ÷ offense timeouts
+49.0+24.50−24.5−49.0Q1Q2Q3Q4Play 112Pregame prior−33.1Home team on offense−8.7Score differential−3.1Garbage-time factor−3.8Score diff ÷ seconds remaining−2.8Score diff ÷ offense timeouts−2.3
This game in five plays
  1. FG · Q2 10:28: Dario Longhetto 35 yd FG GOOD — ASU win probability +2.2 pts (now 7%) (top driver: Not a blowout margin).
  2. TD · Q3 9:25: Elijhah Badger 25 Yd pass from Drew Pyne (Cameron Skattebo Run for Two-Point Conversion) — ASU win probability +10.4 pts (now 19%) (top driver: Game still competitive relative to time left).
  3. TD · Q4 10:31: Brenden Rice 29 Yd pass from Caleb Williams (Caleb Williams Pass to Mario Williams for Two-Point Conversion) — USC win probability +11.5 pts (now 98%) (top driver: USC has the ball).
  4. TD · Q4 8:05: Drew Pyne pass complete to Cameron Skattebo for 52 yds for a TD (Dario Longhetto KICK) — ASU win probability +12.1 pts (now 19%) (top driver: ASU has the ball).
  5. TD · Q4 7:17: Caleb Williams pass complete to Tahj Washington for 45 yds for a TD (Denis Lynch KICK) — USC win probability +9.8 pts (now 98%) (top driver: USC has the ball).
Was that the right call?

Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works

Fourth downs
ASU made the numbers' call on 6 of 9USC made the numbers' call on 5 of 6
  1. Q1 8:20ASU 4th & 5 at ASU 30, down 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 3.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    3.6%−<0.1
    41% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    3.7%
    average punt
  2. Q1 1:15USC 4th & 7 at ASU 43, tied
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 93.9% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    94.0%
    37% to convert
    Field goal
    93.9%−0.1
    28% to make
    Punt
    93.9%−<0.1
    average punt
  3. Q2 10:28ASU 4th & 10 at USC 17, down 7
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 6.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    6.4%−0.3
    27% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    6.6%
    80% to make
    Punt
    5.1%−1.5
    average punt
  4. Q2 8:23ASU 4th & 5 at ASU 29, down 11
    Close callWent for it · 5.7% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    5.7%−<0.1
    41% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    Punt
    5.7%
    average punt
  5. Q2 2:21ASU 4th & 5 at USC 12, down 11
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 7.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    7.0%−<0.1
    38% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    7.0%
    86% to make
    Punt
    5.7%−1.3
    average punt
  6. Q2 0:23USC 4th & 5 at ASU 49, up 8
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 92.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    92.0%−<0.1
    41% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    92.0%
    average punt
  7. Q3 13:57ASU 4th & 10 at ASU 41, down 8
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 8.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    8.3%−0.6
    29% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    8.9%
    average punt
  8. Q3 11:13USC 4th & 13 at ASU 37, up 8
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 90.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    90.3%−0.3
    21% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    90.6%
    40% to make
    Punt
    90.5%−0.1
    average punt
  9. Q3 6:29USC 4th & 19 at ASU 19, up 3
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 80.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    79.2%−2.9
    10% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    82.1%
    77% to make
    Punt
    75.0%−7.1
    average punt
  10. Q3 3:16USC 4th & 3 at ASU 12, up 6
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 86.0% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    86.0%
    50% to convert
    Field goal
    85.4%−0.6
    86% to make
    Punt
    79.6%−6.3
    average punt
  11. Q4 14:07ASU 4th & 17 at ASU 40, down 6
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 18.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    16.2%−2.9
    14% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    19.2%
    average punt
  12. Q4 13:27USC 4th & 3 at USC 29, up 6
    Close callPunted · 82.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    84.4%
    52% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    83.6%−0.7
    average punt
  13. Q4 8:05ASU 4th & 7 at ASU 48, down 14
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 5.2% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    4.9%
    37% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    Punt
    4.8%−0.1
    average punt
  14. Q4 7:07ASU 4th & 6 at ASU 24, down 14
    Close callWent for it · 4.5% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    4.2%−0.2
    38% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    Punt
    4.3%
    average punt
  15. Q4 1:40ASU 4th & 17 at USC 44, down 14
    Close callWent for it · 2.8% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    2.4%−0.4
    15% to convert
    Field goal
    2.8%
    27% to make
    Punt
    2.4%−0.4
    average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
ASU made the numbers' call on 2 of 3USC made the numbers' call on 5 of 5
  1. Q1 8:46USC Touchdown, up 6 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    96.3%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    96.3%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  2. Q1 6:57ASU Touchdown, down 1 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    4.5%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    4.5%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  3. Q1 1:15USC Touchdown, up 6 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    94.6%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    94.6%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  4. Q2 8:29USC Touchdown, up 10 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    93.9%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    93.9%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  5. Q3 9:25ASU Touchdown, down 5 before the try
    Close callWent for two · converted
    Kick
    14.3%
    97% to make
    Go for twoTheir call
    14.2%−0.1
    45% to convert
  6. Q4 10:31USC Touchdown, up 12 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersWent for two · converted
    Kick
    92.0%−0.3
    97% to make
    Go for twoTheir call
    92.3%
    45% to convert
  7. Q4 8:05ASU Touchdown, down 8 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    12.7%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    12.2%−0.5
    45% to convert
  8. Q4 7:17USC Touchdown, up 13 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    94.6%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    93.9%−0.6
    45% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chart
USCDrive 1TD
16 plays · 75 yds · 6:1498% → 98%
Q1 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+2
1.8%
Caleb Williams pass complete to Zachariah Branch for 2 yds to the USC 27Similar
Q1 15:00
2ND & 8
OWN 27
+2
1.8%
Caleb Williams run for 2 yds to the USC 25Similar
Q1 15:00
3RD & 10
OWN 25
-5
1.8%
PENALTY USC False Start (Dedich,Justin) 5 yards from USC25 to USC20. NO PLAY.Similar
Q1 15:00
3RD & 15
OWN 20
-5
1.8%
PENALTY USC Delay Of Game 5 yards from USC20 to USC15. NO PLAY.Similar
Q1 15:00
3RD & 20
OWN 15
+23
1.8%
Caleb Williams pass complete to Zachariah Branch for 23 yds to the USC 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 38
+9
1.8%
Caleb Williams run for 9 yds to the USC 47Similar
Q1 15:00
2ND & 1
OWN 47
+18
1.8%
MarShawn Lloyd run for 18 yds to the ASU 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 35
+17
1.8%
MarShawn Lloyd run for 17 yds to the ASU 18 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 18
0
1.8%
Caleb Williams pass incomplete to Mario WilliamsSimilar
Q1 15:00
2ND & 10
OPP 18
+6
1.8%
Caleb Williams pass complete to Brenden Rice for 6 yds to the ASU 12Similar
Q1 15:00
3RD & 4
OPP 12
+8
1.8%
Caleb Williams pass complete to Brenden Rice for 8 yds to the ASU 4 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 15:00
1ST & GOAL
OPP 4
+3
1.8%
MarShawn Lloyd run for 3 yds to the ASU 1Similar
Q1 8:58
2ND & GOAL
OPP 1
0
2.7%
Caleb Williams pass incomplete to Brenden RiceSimilar
Q1 8:46
3RD & GOAL
OPP 1
+1
2.5%
Caleb Williams run for 1 yd for a TD (Denis Lynch KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ASUDrive 2PUNT
6 plays · 5 yds · 0:263% → 3%
Q1 8:46
1ST & 10
OWN 25
0
2.6%
Drew Pyne pass incomplete to Xavier GuillorySimilar
Q1 8:46
2ND & 10
OWN 25
0
2.6%
Drew Pyne pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 8:46
3RD & 10
OWN 25
+5
2.6%
Shotgun Pyne,Drew pass incomplete short middle to Badger,Elijhah PENALTY USC Offside (Alexander,Bear) 5 yards from ASU25 to ASU30. NO PLAY.Similar
Q1 8:46
3RD & 5
OWN 30
0
2.6%
Drew Pyne pass incomplete to Elijhah BadgerSimilar
Q1 8:20
4TH & 5
OWN 30
0
2.6%
Cameron Skattebo punt for 53 ydsSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USCDrive 3FUMBLE
1 play · -2 yds · 0:0097% → 97%
Q1 8:15
1ST & 10
OWN 17
+2
2.6%
MarShawn Lloyd run for 2 yds to the USC 15 MarShawn Lloyd fumbled, recovered by ASU Tate RomneySimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ASUDrive 4TD
3 plays · 15 yds · 1:183% → 3%
Q1 8:15
1ST & 10
OPP 15
+2
2.8%
Drew Pyne run for 2 yds to the USC 17Similar
Q1 8:15
2ND & 12
OPP 17
+2
2.8%
Cameron Skattebo run for 2 yds to the USC 15Similar
Q1 6:57
3RD & 10
OPP 15
+15
3.3%
Cameron Skattebo run for 15 yds for a TD (Dario Longhetto KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USCDrive 5TD
12 plays · 87 yds · 5:3097% → 96%
Q1 6:45
1ST & 10
OWN 13
+4
3.3%
Caleb Williams pass complete to Mario Williams for 4 yds to the USC 17Similar
Q1 6:45
2ND & 6
OWN 17
+16
3.3%
Caleb Williams pass complete to Michael Jackson III for 16 yds to the USC 33 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 6:45
1ST & 10
OWN 33
0
3.2%
Caleb Williams run for no gain to the USC 33Similar
Q1 6:45
2ND & 10
OWN 33
+18
3.3%
Zachariah Branch run for 28 yds to the ASU 39 USC Penalty, Offensive Holding (Kyron Hudson) to the USC 40Similar
Q1 6:45
2ND & 3
OWN 40
+14
3.2%
Austin Jones run for 14 yds to the ASU 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 6:45
1ST & 10
OPP 46
+6
3.2%
Austin Jones run for 6 yds to the ASU 40Similar
Q1 6:45
2ND & 4
OPP 40
-5
3.1%
Caleb Williams sacked by B.J. Green II for a loss of 5 yards to the ASU 45 Caleb Williams fumbled, recovered by USC Caleb Williams , return for 0 yardsSimilar
Q1 6:45
3RD & 9
OPP 45
-5
3.2%
PENALTY USC False Start (Pregnon,Emmanuel) 5 yards from ASU45 to ASU50. NO PLAY.Similar
Q1 6:45
3RD & 14
50
+12
3.2%
Caleb Williams pass complete to Mario Williams for 12 yds to the ASU 38Similar
Q1 6:45
4TH & 2
OPP 38
-5
3.2%
PENALTY USC False Start (Kingston,Jarrett) 5 yards from ASU38 to ASU43. NO PLAY.Similar
Q1 1:15
4TH & 7
OPP 43
+43
3.8%
Caleb Williams pass complete to Brenden Rice for 43 yds for a TD (Denis Lynch KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ASUDrive 6FG
15 plays · 48 yds · 5:474% → 7%
Q1 1:15
1ST & 10
OWN 35
+6
3.9%
Cameron Skattebo run for 6 yds to the ASU 41Similar
Q1 0:00
2ND & 4
OWN 41
+4
4.4%
Cameron Skattebo run for 4 yds to the ASU 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 45
-2
4.4%
Drew Pyne sacked by Romello Height for a loss of 2 yards to the ASU 43Similar
Q2 15:00
2ND & 12
OWN 43
+6
4.3%
Cameron Skattebo run for 6 yds to the ASU 49Similar
Q2 15:00
3RD & 6
OWN 49
+8
4.3%
Drew Pyne pass complete to Cameron Skattebo for 8 yds to the USC 43 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 43
0
4.5%
Drew Pyne pass incomplete to Bryce PierreSimilar
Q2 15:00
2ND & 10
OPP 43
+7
4.4%
Drew Pyne pass complete to Andre Johnson for 7 yds to the USC 36Similar
Q2 15:00
3RD & 3
OPP 36
+4
4.5%
Cameron Skattebo run for 4 yds to the USC 32 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 32
+15
4.6%
Drew Pyne pass complete to Jalin Conyers for 15 yds to the USC 17 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 17
+4
4.6%
Kyson Brown run for 4 yds to the USC 13Similar
Q2 15:00
2ND & 6
OPP 13
+1
4.6%
Drew Pyne pass complete to Jalin Conyers for 1 yd to the USC 12Similar
Q2 15:00
3RD & 5
OPP 12
0
4.5%
Drew Pyne pass incomplete to Elijhah BadgerSimilar
Q2 15:00
4TH & 5
OPP 12
-5
4.3%
PENALTY ASU Delay Of Game 5 yards from USC12 to USC17. NO PLAY.Similar
Q2 10:28
4TH & 10
OPP 17
+35
6.5%
Dario Longhetto 35 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USCDrive 7TD
6 plays · 43 yds · 1:5794% → 95%
Q2 10:26
1ST & 10
OPP 43
+14
5.8%
Caleb Williams pass complete to Dorian Singer for 14 yds to the ASU 29 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 10:26
1ST & 10
OPP 29
+7
5.7%
MarShawn Lloyd run for 7 yds to the ASU 22Similar
Q2 10:26
2ND & 3
OPP 22
+19
5.7%
MarShawn Lloyd run for 19 yds to the ASU 3 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 10:26
1ST & GOAL
OPP 3
+2
5.7%
Arizona State Penalty, Personal Foul (2 Yards) to the ASU 1 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 8:29
1ST & GOAL
OPP 1
+1
4.6%
Caleb Williams run for 1 yd for a TD (Denis Lynch KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ASUDrive 8FG
14 plays · 64 yds · 6:025% → 7%
Q2 8:23
1ST & 10
OWN 24
+4
4.8%
Cameron Skattebo run for 4 yds to the ASU 28Similar
Q2 8:23
2ND & 6
OWN 28
+1
4.9%
Drew Pyne pass complete to Elijhah Badger for 1 yd to the ASU 29Similar
Q2 8:23
3RD & 5
OWN 29
0
4.7%
Drew Pyne pass incomplete to Jalin ConyersSimilar
Q2 8:23
4TH & 5
OWN 29
+25
4.6%
Cameron Skattebo pass complete to Elijhah Badger for 25 yds to the USC 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 8:23
1ST & 10
OPP 46
0
5.2%
Drew Pyne pass incomplete to Xavier GuillorySimilar
Q2 8:23
2ND & 10
OPP 46
0
5.2%
Drew Pyne pass complete to Bryce Pierre for no gain to the USC 46Similar
Q2 8:23
3RD & 10
OPP 46
+15
5.0%
Kyson Brown run for 15 yds to the USC 31 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 8:23
1ST & 10
OPP 31
+3
5.4%
Drew Pyne pass complete to Elijhah Badger for 3 yds to the USC 34Similar
Q2 8:23
2ND & 13
OPP 34
+17
5.3%
Cameron Skattebo pass complete to Drew Pyne for 17 yds to the USC 17 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 8:23
1ST & 10
OPP 17
+5
5.4%
Cameron Skattebo run for 5 yds to the USC 12Similar
Q2 8:23
2ND & 5
OPP 12
0
5.4%
Cameron Skattebo run for no gain to the USC 12Similar
Q2 8:23
3RD & 5
OPP 12
0
5.2%
Cameron Skattebo pass incomplete to Kyson BrownSimilar
Q2 2:21
4TH & 5
OPP 12
+30
7.2%
Dario Longhetto 30 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USCDrive 9PUNT
8 plays · 35 yds · 1:5293% → 93%
Q2 2:15
1ST & 10
OWN 16
+14
6.7%
Caleb Williams pass complete to Michael Jackson III for 14 yds to the USC 30 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 2:15
1ST & 10
OWN 30
+16
6.5%
Austin Jones run for 16 yds to the USC 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 2:15
1ST & 10
OWN 46
+5
6.1%
Caleb Williams run for 5 yds to the ASU 49Similar
Q2 2:15
2ND & 5
OPP 49
0
6.0%
Caleb Williams pass incomplete to Mario WilliamsSimilar
Q2 0:40
3RD & 5
OPP 49
0
6.1%
Caleb Williams pass incomplete to Austin JonesSimilar
Q2 0:23
4TH & 5
OPP 49
0
6.6%
Eddie Czaplicki punt for 49 yds for a touchbackSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ASUDrive 10END OF HALF
1 play · 4 yds · 0:007% → 7%
Q2 0:00
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+4
7.4%
Drew Pyne pass complete to Kyson Brown for 4 yds to the ASU 24Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ASUDrive 11PUNT
7 plays · 11 yds · 0:527% → 7%
Q3 14:49
1ST & 10
OWN 30
0
7.4%
Drew Pyne pass incomplete to Xavier GuillorySimilar
Q3 14:49
2ND & 10
OWN 30
+11
7.3%
Drew Pyne pass complete to Jalin Conyers for 11 yds to the ASU 41 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 14:49
1ST & 10
OWN 41
0
8.0%
Drew Pyne pass incomplete to Andre JohnsonSimilar
Q3 14:49
2ND & 10
OWN 41
0
7.7%
Drew Pyne pass incomplete to Josiah CoxSimilar
Q3 14:49
3RD & 10
OWN 41
0
7.4%
Drew Pyne pass incomplete to Elijhah BadgerSimilar
Q3 13:57
4TH & 10
OWN 41
0
7.2%
Josh Carlson punt for 24 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the USC 35Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USCDrive 12FG
8 plays · 28 yds · 2:4493% → 93%
Q3 13:57
1ST & 10
OWN 35
0
6.8%
Caleb Williams pass incomplete to Brenden RiceSimilar
Q3 13:57
2ND & 10
OWN 35
+11
7.0%
Caleb Williams pass complete to Brenden Rice for 11 yds to the USC 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 13:57
1ST & 10
OWN 46
+20
6.5%
Caleb Williams pass complete to Brenden Rice for 20 yds to the ASU 34 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 13:57
1ST & 10
OPP 34
+6
6.3%
MarShawn Lloyd run for 6 yds to the ASU 28Similar
Q3 13:57
2ND & 4
OPP 28
0
6.3%
Caleb Williams pass incomplete to Kyron HudsonSimilar
Q3 12:04
3RD & 4
OPP 28
-9
7.2%
Caleb Williams sacked by Prince Dorbah for a loss of 9 yards to the ASU 37Similar
Q3 11:13
4TH & 13
OPP 37
+53
7.3%
Denis Lynch 53 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ASUDrive 13TD
6 plays · 75 yds · 1:488% → 19%
Q3 11:13
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+25
7.7%
Cameron Skattebo run for 10 yds to the ASU 35 for a 1ST down USC Penalty, Face Mask (15 yards) (Mason Cobb) to the 50 yard line for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 11:13
1ST & 10
50
+4
8.5%
Cameron Skattebo run for 4 yds to the USC 46Similar
Q3 11:13
2ND & 6
OPP 46
+3
8.6%
Cameron Skattebo run for 3 yds to the USC 43Similar
Q3 11:13
3RD & 3
OPP 43
+18
8.6%
Cameron Skattebo run for 18 yds to the USC 25 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 9:25
1ST & 10
OPP 25
+25
19.0%
Elijhah Badger 25 Yd pass from Drew Pyne (Cameron Skattebo Run for Two-Point Conversion)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USCDrive 14FG
9 plays · 64 yds · 2:5185% → 87%
Q3 9:20
1ST & 10
OWN 17
+43
14.9%
MarShawn Lloyd run for 43 yds to the ASU 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 9:20
1ST & 10
OPP 40
+36
12.7%
Caleb Williams pass complete to Zachariah Branch for 36 yds to the ASU 4 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 8:08
1ST & GOAL
OPP 4
-15
13.1%
No Huddle-Shotgun Williams,Caleb pass complete short right to Branch,Zachariah for 4 yards to the ASU00 TOUCHDOWN nullified by penalty, clock 08:08 PENALTY USC Pass Interference (Washington,Tahj) 15 yards from ASU04 to ASU19. NO PLAY.Similar
Q3 8:08
1ST & GOAL
OPP 19
+4
13.3%
MarShawn Lloyd run for 4 yds to the ASU 15Similar
Q3 8:08
2ND & GOAL
OPP 15
+4
13.3%
Caleb Williams pass complete to MarShawn Lloyd for 4 yds to the ASU 19Similar
Q3 8:08
3RD & GOAL
OPP 19
0
14.1%
Caleb Williams pass incomplete to Dorian SingerSimilar
Q3 6:29
4TH & GOAL
OPP 19
+36
12.6%
Denis Lynch 36 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ASUDrive 15INT
3 plays · 2 yds · 0:4115% → 15%
Q3 6:29
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+2
14.6%
Cameron Skattebo run for 2 yds to the ASU 27Similar
Q3 5:48
2ND & 8
OWN 27
0
15.4%
Drew Pyne pass interceptedSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USCDrive 16DOWNS
7 plays · 30 yds · 2:3289% → 87%
Q3 5:48
1ST & 10
OPP 42
+5
11.1%
MarShawn Lloyd run for 5 yds to the ASU 37Similar
Q3 5:48
2ND & 5
OPP 37
+18
11.1%
Caleb Williams pass complete to Kyron Hudson for 18 yds to the ASU 19 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 5:48
1ST & 10
OPP 19
+2
10.8%
MarShawn Lloyd run for 2 yds to the ASU 17Similar
Q3 5:48
2ND & 8
OPP 17
0
10.8%
Caleb Williams pass incomplete to Austin JonesSimilar
Q3 5:48
3RD & 8
OPP 17
-5
11.3%
PENALTY USC False Start (Dedich,Justin) 5 yards from ASU17 to ASU22. NO PLAY.Similar
Q3 5:48
3RD & 13
OPP 22
+10
11.6%
Caleb Williams run for 10 yds to the ASU 12Similar
Q3 3:16
4TH & 3
OPP 12
0
13.0%
Caleb Williams pass incomplete to Michael Jackson IIISimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ASUDrive 17PUNT
8 plays · 28 yds · 4:0917% → 19%
Q3 3:16
1ST & 10
OWN 12
-6
16.7%
No Huddle-Shotgun Skattebo,Cam rush right for 1 yard gain to the ASU13 (Muhammad,Jamil) PENALTY ASU Holding (Fautanu,Leif) 6 yards from ASU12 to ASU06. NO PLAY.Similar
Q3 3:16
1ST & 16
OWN 6
+29
16.5%
Drew Pyne pass complete to Jalin Conyers for 29 yds to the ASU 35 for a 1ST down USC Penalty, Defensive Pass Interference (MarShawn Lloyd) declined for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 3:16
1ST & 10
OWN 35
+6
17.3%
Drew Pyne pass complete to Elijhah Badger for 6 yds to the ASU 41Similar
Q3 3:16
2ND & 4
OWN 41
+6
19.1%
Cameron Skattebo run for 6 yds to the ASU 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 3:16
1ST & 10
OWN 47
+4
19.2%
Drew Pyne run for 4 yds to the USC 49Similar
Q3 0:00
2ND & 6
OPP 49
+3
23.1%
Drew Pyne pass complete to Bryce Pierre for 3 yds to the ASU 48Similar
Q4 15:00
3RD & 9
OWN 48
-8
20.4%
Drew Pyne sacked by Bear Alexander for a loss of 8 yards to the ASU 40Similar
Q4 14:07
4TH & 17
OWN 40
0
19.2%
Josh Carlson punt for 38 yds, fair catch by Zachariah Branch at the USC 22Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USCDrive 18PUNT
4 plays · 7 yds · 0:4084% → 83%
Q4 14:07
1ST & 10
OWN 22
+7
16.2%
Caleb Williams pass complete to Zachariah Branch for 7 yds to the USC 29Similar
Q4 14:07
2ND & 3
OWN 29
0
15.0%
Caleb Williams pass incomplete to Zachariah BranchSimilar
Q4 14:07
3RD & 3
OWN 29
0
15.4%
Caleb Williams pass incomplete to Tahj WashingtonSimilar
Q4 13:27
4TH & 3
OWN 29
0
16.7%
Eddie Czaplicki punt for 41 yds, fair catch by Melquan Stovall at the ASU 30Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ASUDrive 19FUMBLE
4 plays · 14 yds · 2:0222% → 21%
Q4 13:27
1ST & 10
OWN 30
+26
21.7%
Drew Pyne pass complete to Elijhah Badger for 26 yds to the USC 44 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 13:27
1ST & 10
OPP 44
+1
25.0%
Drew Pyne pass complete to Elijhah Badger for 1 yd to the USC 45Similar
Q4 13:27
2ND & 11
OPP 45
-10
24.4%
Drew Pyne sacked by Romello Height for a loss of 10 yards to the ASU 45Similar
Q4 11:25
3RD & 21
OWN 45
-1
20.8%
Drew Pyne sacked by Solomon Byrd for a loss of 1 yard to the ASU 44 Drew Pyne fumbled, recovered by USC Romello Height , return for 0 yardsSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USCDrive 20TD
2 plays · 44 yds · 0:5486% → 98%
Q4 11:25
1ST & 10
OPP 44
+15
13.8%
MarShawn Lloyd run for 15 yds to the ASU 29 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 10:31
1ST & 10
OPP 29
+29
2.2%
Brenden Rice 29 Yd pass from Caleb Williams (Caleb Williams Pass to Mario Williams for Two-Point Conversion)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ASUDrive 21TD
7 plays · 75 yds · 2:266% → 19%
Q4 10:31
1ST & 10
OWN 25
0
5.7%
Cameron Skattebo run for no gain to the ASU 25Similar
Q4 10:31
2ND & 10
OWN 25
+15
5.6%
USC Penalty, Roughing The Passer (Christian Roland-Wallace) to the ASU 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 10:31
1ST & 10
OWN 45
0
6.6%
Drew Pyne pass incomplete to Xavier GuillorySimilar
Q4 10:31
2ND & 10
OWN 45
+7
6.5%
Cameron Skattebo run for 7 yds to the USC 48Similar
Q4 10:31
3RD & 3
OPP 48
+4
6.8%
Drew Pyne pass complete to Elijhah Badger for 4 yds to the ASU 48Similar
Q4 8:05
4TH & 7
OWN 48
+52
19.0%
Drew Pyne pass complete to Cameron Skattebo for 52 yds for a TD (Dario Longhetto KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USCDrive 22TD
5 plays · 75 yds · 0:4887% → 98%
Q4 8:05
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+16
13.1%
Caleb Williams pass complete to Brenden Rice for 16 yds to the USC 41 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 8:05
1ST & 10
OWN 41
+14
11.7%
MarShawn Lloyd run for 14 yds to the ASU 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 7:17
1ST & 10
OPP 45
+45
1.9%
Caleb Williams pass complete to Tahj Washington for 45 yds for a TD (Denis Lynch KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ASUDrive 23DOWNS
14 plays · 36 yds · 5:274% → 2%
Q4 7:07
1ST & 10
OWN 20
-7
4.4%
Drew Pyne sacked by Jamil Muhammad for a loss of 7 yards to the ASU 13Similar
Q4 7:07
2ND & 17
OWN 13
-3
4.2%
Drew Pyne sacked by Solomon Byrd for a loss of 3 yards to the ASU 10Similar
Q4 7:07
3RD & 20
OWN 10
+14
4.2%
Drew Pyne pass complete to Cameron Skattebo for 14 yds to the ASU 24Similar
Q4 7:07
4TH & 6
OWN 24
+13
4.2%
Drew Pyne pass complete to Elijhah Badger for 13 yds to the ASU 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 7:07
1ST & 10
OWN 37
+15
4.6%
Drew Pyne pass complete to Jalin Conyers for 15 yds to the USC 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 7:07
1ST & 10
OPP 48
-6
5.0%
Drew Pyne sacked by Tackett Curtis for a loss of 6 yards to the ASU 46Similar
Q4 7:07
2ND & 16
OWN 46
+14
4.4%
Cameron Skattebo run for 14 yds to the USC 40 Cameron Skattebo fumbled, recovered by ASU Leif FautanuSimilar
Q4 7:07
3RD & 2
OPP 40
+3
5.4%
Cameron Skattebo run for 3 yds to the USC 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 7:07
1ST & 10
OPP 37
-5
5.1%
Drew Pyne sacked by Tackett Curtis for a loss of 5 yards to the USC 42Similar
Q4 2:33
2ND & 15
OPP 42
0
2.7%
Drew Pyne pass incomplete to Xavier GuillorySimilar
Q4 2:33
3RD & 15
OPP 42
+2
2.8%
Cameron Skattebo run for 2 yds to the USC 44Similar
Q4 1:40
4TH & 17
OPP 44
0
2.1%
Drew Pyne pass incomplete to Elijhah BadgerSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USCDrive 24END OF GAME
3 plays · -1 yds · 1:4099% → 99%
Q4 1:40
1ST & 10
OWN 44
+3
1.1%
MarShawn Lloyd run for 3 yds to the USC 47Similar
Q4 1:40
2ND & 7
OWN 47
-3
1.1%
C. Williams takes a kneeSimilar
Q4 0:00
3RD & 10
OWN 44
-1
1.1%
C. Williams takes a kneeSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
TD · Q4 8:05
Drew Pyne pass complete to Cameron Skattebo for 52 yds for a TD (Dario Longhetto KICK)
+12.1
TD · Q4 10:31
Brenden Rice 29 Yd pass from Caleb Williams (Caleb Williams Pass to Mario Williams for Two-Point Conversion)
-11.5
TD · Q3 9:25
Elijhah Badger 25 Yd pass from Drew Pyne (Cameron Skattebo Run for Two-Point Conversion)
+10.4
YardLine · model v10Model estimate - not betting advice · Data provided by CollegeFootballData.com