2023 · Week 3 · Sep 16, 2023 · Gesa Field
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Win probability · WSU
modelWSU aheadUNCO aheadconfidence bandkey playWSU scoreUNCO score
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q4 0:00 · Caden Meis run for 8 yds to the UNCO 29
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Pregame priorHome team on offenseScore differentialBlowout marginScore diff ÷ offense timeoutsGarbage-time factor
This game in five plays
- TD · Q1 6:08: Cameron Ward pass complete to Kyle Williams for 37 yds for a TD (Dean Janikowski KICK) — WSU win probability +0.1 pts (now 99%) (top driver: WSU has the ball).
- TD · Q1 3:41: Cameron Ward pass complete to Lincoln Victor for 28 yds for a TD (Dean Janikowski KICK) — WSU win probability +0.1 pts (now 100%) (top driver: WSU has the ball).
- TD · Q2 12:27: Josh Kelly 18 Yd pass from Cameron Ward (Dean Janikowski Kick) — WSU win probability +0.2 pts (now 100%) (top driver: WSU has the ball).
- TD · Q2 8:45: Nakia Watson run for 6 yds for a TD (Dean Janikowski KICK) — UNCO win probability +0.2 pts (now 1%) (top driver: WSU has the ball).
- TD · Q2 3:20: Cameron Ward pass complete to Lincoln Victor for 31 yds for a TD (Dean Janikowski KICK) — WSU win probability +0.1 pts (now 100%) (top driver: WSU has the ball).
Was that the right call?
Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works
Fourth downs
WSU made the numbers' call on 1 of 2UNCO made the numbers' call on 6 of 8
- Q1 12:03WSU 4th & 2 at WSU 44, tiedAgrees with the numbersWent for it · 99.3% before the snapGo for itTheir call99.3%57% to convertField goalOut of rangePunt99.3%−<0.1average punt
- Q1 9:38UNCO 4th & 9 at UNCO 26, down 8Agrees with the numbersPunted · 0.8% before the snapGo for it0.7%−0.130% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call0.8%average punt
- Q1 4:54UNCO 4th & 4 at UNCO 31, down 15Agrees with the numbersPunted · 0.9% before the snapGo for it0.9%−0.148% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call1.0%average punt
- Q1 0:01UNCO 4th & 12 at UNCO 38, down 22Agrees with the numbersPunted · 0.7% before the snapGo for it0.6%−0.123% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call0.7%average punt
- Q2 10:30UNCO 4th & 8 at UNCO 27, down 29Agrees with the numbersPunted · 0.3% before the snapGo for it0.3%−0.133% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call0.4%average punt
- Q2 5:57UNCO 4th & 9 at UNCO 37, down 36Agrees with the numbersPunted · 0.2% before the snapGo for it0.2%−0.131% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call0.2%average punt
- Q3 12:31UNCO 4th & 10 at UNCO 43, down 36Agrees with the numbersPunted · 0.2% before the snapGo for it0.1%−0.129% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call0.2%average punt
- Q3 2:53UNCO 4th & 2 at UNCO 46, down 43Close callPunted · 0.1% before the snapGo for it0.1%57% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call0.1%−0.1average punt
- Q4 3:58UNCO 4th & 12 at WSU 37, down 43Close callPunted · 0.0% before the snapGo for it0.0%−<0.124% to convertField goal0.0%40% to makePuntTheir call0.0%−<0.1average punt
- Q4 0:48WSU 4th & 4 at WSU 48, up 43Close callPunted · 100.0% before the snapGo for it99.9%48% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call99.9%−<0.1average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
WSU made the numbers' call on 8 of 9UNCO made the numbers' call on 3 of 3
- Q1 10:28WSU Touchdown, up 6 before the tryClose callWent for two · convertedKick99.3%97% to makeGo for twoTheir call99.3%−<0.145% to convert
- Q1 6:08WSU Touchdown, up 14 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call99.2%97% to makeGo for two99.2%−<0.145% to convert
- Q1 3:41WSU Touchdown, up 21 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call99.4%97% to makeGo for two99.4%−<0.145% to convert
- Q2 12:27WSU Touchdown, up 28 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call99.7%97% to makeGo for two99.7%−<0.145% to convert
- Q2 8:45WSU Touchdown, up 35 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call99.8%97% to makeGo for two99.8%−<0.145% to convert
- Q2 3:20WSU Touchdown, up 42 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call99.9%97% to makeGo for two99.9%−<0.145% to convert
- Q2 0:12UNCO Touchdown, down 37 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call0.3%97% to makeGo for two0.3%−<0.145% to convert
- Q3 9:43WSU Touchdown, up 42 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call100.0%97% to makeGo for two100.0%−<0.145% to convert
- Q3 5:45UNCO Touchdown, down 37 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call0.2%97% to makeGo for two0.2%−<0.145% to convert
- Q3 5:10WSU Touchdown, up 42 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call100.0%97% to makeGo for two100.0%−<0.145% to convert
- Q4 13:46WSU Touchdown, up 49 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call100.0%97% to makeGo for two100.0%−<0.145% to convert
- Q4 11:36UNCO Touchdown, down 44 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call0.1%97% to makeGo for two0.1%−<0.145% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chartWSUDrive 1TD12 plays · 75 yds · 4:31100% → 100%
Q1 14:31
2ND & 9
OWN 26
+7
99.6%
Cameron Ward pass complete to Isaiah Hamilton for 7 yds to the WSU 33Similar
Q1 13:50
1ST & 10
OWN 36
0
99.6%
Cameron Ward pass complete to Isaiah Hamilton for no gain to the WSU 36Similar
Q1 12:38
3RD & 10
OWN 36
+8
99.5%
Cameron Ward pass complete to Carlos Hernandez for 8 yds to the WSU 44Similar
Q1 11:20
1ST & 10
OWN 48
+15
99.5%
(11:20) WARD, Cameron pass deep to the left incomplete intended for WILLIAMS, Kyle thrown to the UNC7, clock 11:17. PENALTY UNC Pass Interference on GILLIS, Nathaniel enforced 15 yards to the UNC37 and results in automatic 1ST DOWN [NHSG]. NO PLAY (replay the down).Similar
Q1 11:20
1ST & 10
OWN 48
+15
99.5%
(11:20) WARD, Cameron pass deep to the left incomplete intended for WILLIAMS, Kyle thrown to the UNC7, clock 11:17. PENALTY UNC Pass Interference on GILLIS, Nathaniel enforced 15 yards to the UNC37 and results in automatic 1ST DOWN [NHSG]. NO PLAY (replay the down).Similar
Q1 10:53
2ND & 7
OPP 34
+26
99.5%
Cameron Ward pass complete to Lincoln Victor for 26 yds to the UNCO 8 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 10:28
1ST & GOAL
OPP 8
+8
99.5%
Cameron Ward 8 Yd Run (Cameron Ward Pass to Billy Riviere III for Two-Point Conversion)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UNCODrive 2PUNT4 plays · 1 yds · 0:491% → 1%
Q1 9:38
4TH & 9
OWN 26
0
99.5%
Hunter Green punt for 44 yds, fair catch by Isaiah Hamilton at the WSU 30Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WSUDrive 3TD8 plays · 70 yds · 3:22100% → 99%
Q1 8:50
2ND & 5
OWN 35
+7
99.4%
Cameron Ward pass complete to Lincoln Victor for 7 yds to the WSU 42 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 8:23
1ST & 10
OWN 42
-10
99.4%
(08:23) VICTOR, Lincoln rush to the left for a gain of 6 yards to the WSU48 (BROWN, Joe), clock 08:20. PENALTY WSU Illegal Block in the Back on HILBORN, Christian enforced 10 yards from the WSU42 to the WSU32 [NHSG]. NO PLAY (replay the down).Similar
Q1 8:23
1ST & 10
OWN 42
-10
99.4%
(08:23) VICTOR, Lincoln rush to the left for a gain of 6 yards to the WSU48 (BROWN, Joe), clock 08:20. PENALTY WSU Illegal Block in the Back on HILBORN, Christian enforced 10 yards from the WSU42 to the WSU32 [NHSG]. NO PLAY (replay the down).Similar
Q1 8:03
1ST & 20
OWN 32
+15
99.4%
Cameron Ward pass complete to Cameron Johnson for 15 yds to the WSU 47Similar
Q1 7:37
2ND & 5
OWN 47
+10
99.4%
Cameron Ward pass complete to Billy Riviere III for 10 yds to the UNCO 43 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 6:57
1ST & 10
OPP 43
+6
99.4%
Cameron Ward pass complete to Lincoln Victor for 6 yds to the UNCO 37Similar
Q1 6:08
2ND & 4
OPP 37
+37
99.4%
Cameron Ward pass complete to Kyle Williams for 37 yds for a TD (Dean Janikowski KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UNCODrive 4PUNT4 plays · 6 yds · 1:131% → 1%
WSUDrive 5TD4 plays · 64 yds · 1:0699% → 100%
UNCODrive 6PUNT8 plays · 13 yds · 3:361% → 1%
WSUDrive 7TD6 plays · 42 yds · 2:33100% → 100%
UNCODrive 8PUNT4 plays · 2 yds · 1:500% → 0%
Q2 12:20
1ST & 10
OWN 25
-6
99.7%
Jacob Sirmon sacked by Ron Stone Jr. for a loss of 6 yards to the UNCO 19Similar
Q2 11:41
2ND & 16
OWN 19
+3
99.7%
Jacob Sirmon pass complete to Blake Haggerty for 3 yds to the UNCO 22Similar
Q2 10:30
4TH & 8
OWN 27
0
99.7%
Hunter Green punt for 37 yds, fair catch by Isaiah Hamilton at the WSU 36Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WSUDrive 9TD7 plays · 64 yds · 1:40100% → 100%
Q2 10:25
1ST & 10
OWN 36
+15
99.7%
Northern Colorado Penalty, Face mask (15 yards) (Vincent King) to the UNCO 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 9:58
1ST & 10
OPP 45
-3
99.7%
Cameron Ward pass complete to Josh Kelly for a loss of 3 yards to the UNCO 48Similar
Q2 9:30
2ND & 13
OPP 48
+21
99.7%
Cameron Ward pass complete to Josh Kelly for 21 yds to the UNCO 27 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 9:06
3RD & 10
OPP 27
+21
99.7%
Cameron Ward pass complete to Lincoln Victor for 21 yds to the UNCO 6 for a 1ST downSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UNCODrive 10PUNT6 plays · 12 yds · 2:470% → 0%
Q2 8:08
2ND & 9
OWN 26
+10
99.8%
Hank Gibbs pass complete to Blake Haggerty for 10 yds to the UNCO 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WSUDrive 11TD7 plays · 74 yds · 2:30100% → 100%
UNCODrive 12TD8 plays · 75 yds · 3:070% → 0%
Q2 2:42
2ND & 10
OWN 25
+24
99.9%
Jacob Sirmon pass complete to Blake Haggerty for 24 yds to the UNCO 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 1:35
2ND & 9
50
+17
99.9%
Jacob Sirmon pass complete to Jamarii Robinson for 17 yds to the WSU 33 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 1:09
2ND & 10
OPP 33
-2
99.8%
Jacob Sirmon sacked by Brennan Jackson for a loss of 2 yards to the WSU 35Similar
Q2 0:33
3RD & 12
OPP 35
+17
99.9%
Jacob Sirmon pass complete to Blake Haggerty for 17 yds to the WSU 18 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:12
1ST & 10
OPP 18
+18
99.8%
Jacob Sirmon pass complete to Jamarii Robinson for 18 yds for a TD (Hunter Green KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WSUDrive 13END OF HALF1 play · -1 yds · 0:00100% → 100%
Q2 0:10
1ST & 10
OWN 25
0
99.8%
(00:10) [NH] Kneel down by WSU at WSU24 (team loss of 1), clock 00:03.Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UNCODrive 14PUNT7 plays · 18 yds · 2:290% → 0%
Q3 15:00
3RD & 7
OWN 28
+15
99.9%
SIRMON, Jacob pass to the left incomplete intended for HAGGERTY, Blake thrown to the UNC35. PENALTY WSU Roughing the Passer on MALANI, Nusi enforced 15 yards from the UNC28 to the UNC43 and results in automatic 1ST DOWN [NHSG]. NO PLAY (replay the down).Similar
Q3 15:00
3RD & 10
OWN 43
0
99.8%
Jacob Sirmon pass complete to Caden Meis for no gain to the UNCO 43Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WSUDrive 15TD7 plays · 93 yds · 2:30100% → 100%
Q3 11:50
2ND & 4
OWN 13
+21
99.9%
John Mateer pass complete to Josh Meredith for 21 yds to the WSU 34 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 10:51
2ND & 3
OWN 41
+20
99.9%
Djouvensky Schlenbaker run for 20 yds to the UNCO 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 10:32
1ST & 10
OPP 39
+17
99.9%
John Mateer pass complete to Carlos Hernandez for 17 yds to the UNCO 22 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 10:11
1ST & 10
OPP 22
+7
99.9%
John Mateer pass complete to Carlos Hernandez for 7 yds to the UNCO 15Similar
Q3 9:43
2ND & 3
OPP 15
+15
99.9%
John Mateer pass complete to Josh Meredith for 15 yds for a TD (Dean Janikowski KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UNCODrive 16TD9 plays · 75 yds · 3:570% → 0%
Q3 7:12
3RD & 10
OPP 12
0
99.9%
(07:12) SIRMON, Jacob pass to the right incomplete dropped by HAGGERTY, Blake thrown to the WSU13, clock 07:10. PENALTY WSU Face mask on HALL, Stephen enforced half the distance from the goal, 6 yards from the WSU12 to the WSU6 and results in automatic 1ST DOWN [NHSG]. NO PLAY (replay the down).Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WSUDrive 17TD2 plays · 75 yds · 0:28100% → 100%
UNCODrive 18PUNT6 plays · 21 yds · 2:140% → 0%
WSUDrive 19TD12 plays · 80 yds · 4:04100% → 100%
UNCODrive 20TD6 plays · 75 yds · 2:090% → 0%
Q4 13:11
2ND & 9
OWN 26
+6
100.0%
Jacob Sirmon pass complete to Jamarii Robinson for 6 yds to the UNCO 32Similar
Q4 12:04
1ST & 10
OWN 41
+7
100.0%
Jacob Sirmon pass complete to Blake Haggerty for 7 yds to the UNCO 48Similar
Q4 11:36
2ND & 3
OWN 48
+52
100.0%
Jacob Sirmon pass complete to Darius Stewart for 52 yds for a TD (Hunter Green KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WSUDrive 21INT10 plays · 67 yds · 4:18100% → 100%
Q4 11:35
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+14
100.0%
Djouvensky Schlenbaker run for 14 yds to the WSU 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 10:19
3RD & 7
OWN 42
+9
100.0%
Emmett Brown pass complete to Cole Pruett for 9 yds to the UNCO 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 8:12
2ND & 10
OPP 35
+20
100.0%
Emmett Brown pass complete to Cole Pruett for 5 yds to the UNCO 30 for a 1ST down Northern Colorado Penalty, Unnecessary Roughness (Carver Cheeks) to the UNCO 15 for a 1ST downSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UNCODrive 22PUNT11 plays · 60 yds · 3:130% → 0%
Q4 5:33
3RD & 9
OWN 26
+27
100.0%
Hank Gibbs pass complete to Carver Cheeks for 27 yds to the WSU 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 4:08
4TH & 7
OPP 32
-5
100.0%
Northern Colorado Penalty, Delay Of Game (Jacob Sirmon) to the WSU 37Similar
Q4 3:58
4TH & 12
OPP 37
0
100.0%
Hunter Green punt for 31 yds, fair catch by Lincoln Victor at the WSU 26Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WSUDrive 23PUNT5 plays · 22 yds · 0:00100% → 100%
Q4 0:48
4TH & 4
OWN 48
0
100.0%
Nick Haberer punt for 42 yds, fair catch by Blake Haggerty at the UNCO 10Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
TD · Q2 12:27
Josh Kelly 18 Yd pass from Cameron Ward (Dean Janikowski Kick)
+0.2
TD · Q2 8:45
Nakia Watson run for 6 yds for a TD (Dean Janikowski KICK)
-0.2
TD · Q1 6:08
Cameron Ward pass complete to Kyle Williams for 37 yds for a TD (Dean Janikowski KICK)
+0.1