2023 · Week 3 · Sep 16, 2023 · Rice-Eccles Stadium
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Win probability · UTAH
modelUTAH aheadWEB aheadconfidence bandkey playUTAH scoreWEB score
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q1 6:21 · Jack Burgess punt for 42 yds
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Pregame priorHome team on offenseScore differentialScore diff ÷ offense timeoutsGarbage-time factorScore diff ÷ seconds remaining
This game in five plays
- KEY PLAY · Q1 8:40: Timeout Weber State, clock 08:40 — WEB win probability +0.9 pts (now 5%) (top driver: UTAH has the ball).
- TD · Q2 10:46: Kris Jackson run for 2 yds for a TD (Kyle Thompson KICK) — WEB win probability +2.4 pts (now 8%) (top driver: WEB has the ball).
- KEY PLAY · Q2 10:39: Nate Johnson pass complete to Money Parks for 9 yds to the WEB 16 — UTAH win probability +0.9 pts (now 93%) (top driver: UTAH has the ball).
- TD · Q3 10:17: Jaylon Glover run for 2 yds for a TD (Joey Cheek KICK) — UTAH win probability +3.5 pts (now 97%) (top driver: UTAH has the ball).
- TD · Q3 4:36: Lander Barton 23 Yd Interception Return (Joey Cheek Kick) — UTAH win probability +2.7 pts (now 99%) (top driver: WEB has the ball).
Was that the right call?
Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works
Fourth downs
UTAH made the numbers' call on 7 of 8WEB made the numbers' call on 7 of 7
- Q1 13:54WEB 4th & 7 at WEB 30, tiedAgrees with the numbersPunted · 5.4% before the snapGo for it5.4%−<0.136% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call5.5%average punt
- Q1 8:35UTAH 4th & 1 at WEB 1, tiedAgrees with the numbersWent for it · 93.3% before the snapGo for itTheir call93.3%59% to convertField goal93.1%−0.294% to makePunt92.6%−0.7average punt
- Q1 6:21WEB 4th & 5 at WEB 43, down 7Agrees with the numbersPunted · 6.5% before the snapGo for it6.5%−<0.141% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call6.5%average punt
- Q1 4:58UTAH 4th & 18 at UTAH 7, up 7Agrees with the numbersPunted · 93.1% before the snapGo for it92.9%−0.311% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call93.2%average punt
- Q1 3:08WEB 4th & 6 at UTAH 49, down 7Agrees with the numbersPunted · 7.1% before the snapGo for it7.1%−<0.140% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call7.1%average punt
- Q2 13:29UTAH 4th & 9 at WEB 19, up 7Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 92.1% before the snapGo for it91.9%−0.230% to convertField goalTheir call92.1%77% to makePunt91.1%−1.0average punt
- Q2 4:30WEB 4th & 10 at WEB 49, down 10Agrees with the numbersPunted · 8.6% before the snapGo for it8.3%−0.129% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call8.5%average punt
- Q2 0:47UTAH 4th & 3 at WEB 11, up 10Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 91.2% before the snapGo for itTheir call91.1%50% to convertField goal91.1%−<0.187% to makePunt88.5%−2.6average punt
- Q3 6:58WEB 4th & 14 at WEB 36, down 17Agrees with the numbersPunted · 4.2% before the snapGo for it3.5%−1.118% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call4.6%average punt
- Q3 5:18UTAH 4th & 6 at UTAH 18, up 17Agrees with the numbersPunted · 96.0% before the snapGo for it95.7%−0.438% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call96.1%average punt
- Q3 3:05WEB 4th & 18 at WEB 11, down 24Agrees with the numbersPunted · 1.4% before the snapGo for it1.1%−0.611% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call1.7%average punt
- Q3 0:05UTAH 4th & 5 at WEB 30, up 24Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 98.9% before the snapGo for itTheir call98.9%41% to convertField goal98.8%−<0.156% to makePunt98.7%−0.2average punt
- Q4 8:48UTAH 4th & 9 at WEB 41, up 24Close callPunted · 99.2% before the snapGo for it99.1%32% to convertField goal99.1%−0.132% to makePuntTheir call99.1%−<0.1average punt
- Q4 6:38WEB 4th & 8 at WEB 8, down 24Agrees with the numbersPunted · 0.5% before the snapGo for it0.5%−<0.131% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call0.6%average punt
- Q4 6:38UTAH 4th & 1 at UTAH 40, up 24Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 99.3% before the snapGo for itTheir call99.3%70% to convertField goalOut of rangePunt99.1%−0.2average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
UTAH made the numbers' call on 4 of 4WEB made the numbers' call on 1 of 1
- Q1 8:35UTAH Touchdown, up 6 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call93.8%97% to makeGo for two93.8%−<0.145% to convert
- Q2 10:46WEB Touchdown, down 4 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call10.5%97% to makeGo for two10.4%−<0.145% to convert
- Q2 5:00UTAH Touchdown, up 9 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call91.8%97% to makeGo for two91.8%−<0.145% to convert
- Q3 10:17UTAH Touchdown, up 16 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call94.3%97% to makeGo for two94.3%−<0.145% to convert
- Q3 4:36UTAH Touchdown, up 23 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call98.6%97% to makeGo for two98.6%−<0.145% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chartWEBDrive 1PUNT4 plays · 3 yds · 1:013% → 4%
UTAHDrive 2TD11 plays · 69 yds · 5:1996% → 96%
Q1 13:54
1ST & 10
OWN 31
+9
96.4%
Nate Johnson pass complete to Thomas Yassmin for 9 yds to the UTAH 40Similar
Q1 13:54
1ST & 10
OWN 47
+33
96.4%
Nate Johnson pass complete to Munir McClain for 33 yds to the WEB 20 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 13:54
2ND & GOAL
OPP 6
+2
96.5%
Nate Johnson pass complete to Money Parks for 2 yds to the WEB 4Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WEBDrive 3PUNT7 plays · 23 yds · 2:074% → 5%
UTAHDrive 4PUNT6 plays · -8 yds · 1:2396% → 95%
WEBDrive 5PUNT4 plays · 4 yds · 1:505% → 5%
UTAHDrive 6FG12 plays · 61 yds · 4:3995% → 94%
WEBDrive 7TD7 plays · 59 yds · 2:336% → 8%
Q2 12:02
2ND & 14
OWN 37
+10
94.9%
Kylan Weisser pass complete to Treyshun Hurry for 10 yds to the WEB 47Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UTAHDrive 8TD11 plays · 70 yds · 5:3993% → 94%
Q2 10:39
1ST & 10
OWN 41
-10
92.8%
QB Keeper JOHNSON, Nate rush up the middle for a loss of 4 yards to the UTA37 (COPE, Cameren). PENALTY UTA Holding on BILLS, Keaton enforced 10 yards from the UTA41 to the UTA31 [SG]. NO PLAY (replay the down).Similar
Q2 10:39
3RD & 16
OWN 35
+40
92.2%
Nate Johnson pass complete to Mikey Matthews for 40 yds to the WEB 25 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 10:39
1ST & 10
OPP 25
+9
93.1%
Nate Johnson pass complete to Money Parks for 9 yds to the WEB 16Similar
Q2 5:00
1ST & 10
OPP 13
+13
93.8%
Nate Johnson pass complete to Money Parks for 13 yds for a TD (Joey Cheek KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WEBDrive 9PUNT5 plays · 0 yds · 0:246% → 6%
UTAHDrive 10DOWNS11 plays · 77 yds · 3:4394% → 94%
Q2 4:30
1ST & 10
OWN 16
+11
94.2%
Nate Johnson pass complete to Money Parks for 11 yds to the UTAH 27 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 4:30
3RD & 4
OWN 33
+49
93.9%
Nate Johnson pass complete to Munir McClain for 49 yds to the WEB 18 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 4:30
1ST & 10
OPP 18
-2
94.4%
Nate Johnson pass complete to Mikey Matthews for a loss of 2 yards to the WEB 20Similar
Q2 0:47
1ST & 10
OWN 19
0
93.5%
Weber State Penalty, Personal Foul (Maxwell Anderson) to the WEB 9Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WEBDrive 11END OF HALF1 play · -9 yds · 0:006% → 6%
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UTAHDrive 12TD9 plays · 68 yds · 4:3793% → 97%
WEBDrive 13PUNT10 plays · 11 yds · 3:194% → 3%
Q3 10:17
3RD & 5
OWN 30
+10
95.8%
WEISSER, Kylan pass to the left incomplete intended for RECORD, Jayleen thrown to the WSU36. PENALTY UTA Holding on VAUGHN, Zemaiah enforced 10 yards from the WSU30 to the WSU40 and results in automatic 1ST DOWN [SG]. NO PLAY (replay the down).Similar
Q3 10:17
3RD & 4
OWN 46
-10
95.6%
BANKSTON, Damon rush to the right for a gain of 23 yards to the UTA31 (VAKI, Sione), out of bounds. PENALTY WSU Holding on MEACHAM, Hayden enforced 10 yards from the WSU46 to the WSU36 [NHSG]. NO PLAY (replay the down).Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UTAHDrive 14PUNT5 plays · 4 yds · 1:4097% → 96%
Q3 6:58
2ND & 13
OWN 11
+7
96.7%
Nate Johnson pass complete to Luca Caldarella for 7 yds to the UTAH 18Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WEBDrive 15INT TD2 plays · -9 yds · 0:424% → 1%
WEBDrive 16PUNT6 plays · -8 yds · 1:262% → 1%
Q3 4:31
2ND & 19
OWN 10
+1
98.5%
Kylan Weisser pass complete to Adrian Cormier for 1 yd to the WEB 11Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UTAHDrive 17DOWNS6 plays · 21 yds · 3:00100% → 100%
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WEBDrive 18FUMBLE10 plays · 26 yds · 2:581% → 1%
Q4 15:00
2ND & 15
OWN 25
+10
99.1%
Kylan Weisser pass complete to Jacob Sharp for 10 yds to the WEB 35Similar
Q4 15:00
3RD & 5
OWN 35
+7
99.0%
Kylan Weisser pass complete to Jacob Sharp for 7 yds to the WEB 42 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 15:00
3RD & 10
OWN 42
+12
99.0%
Kylan Weisser pass complete to Treyshun Hurry for 12 yds to the UTAH 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 46
+3
98.9%
Kylan Weisser pass complete to Hayden Meacham for 3 yds to the UTAH 43Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UTAHDrive 19PUNT7 plays · 15 yds · 3:14100% → 100%
Q4 8:48
4TH & 9
OPP 41
0
99.8%
Jack Bouwmeester punt for 35 yds, fair catch by Haze Hadley at the WEB 6Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WEBDrive 20PUNT5 plays · 2 yds · 2:101% → 0%
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UTAHDrive 21END OF GAME10 plays · 37 yds · 6:38100% → 100%
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
TD · Q3 10:17
Jaylon Glover run for 2 yds for a TD (Joey Cheek KICK)
+3.5
TD · Q3 4:36
Lander Barton 23 Yd Interception Return (Joey Cheek Kick)
+2.7
TD · Q2 10:46
Kris Jackson run for 2 yds for a TD (Kyle Thompson KICK)
-2.4