2023 · Week 3 · Sep 16, 2023 · Rose Bowl
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Win probability · UCLA
modelUCLA aheadNCCU aheadconfidence bandkey playUCLA scoreNCCU score
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q2 14:54 · Juan Velarde punt for 30 yds, fair catch by Logan Loya at the UCLA 18
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Pregame priorHome team on offenseScore differentialBlowout marginScore diff ÷ offense timeoutsGarbage-time factor
This game in five plays
- TD · Q1 7:38: Dante Moore pass complete to J. Michael Sturdivant for 30 yds for a TD (RJ Lopez KICK) — UCLA win probability +0.3 pts (now 98%) (top driver: UCLA has the ball).
- TD · Q1 5:27: Collin Schlee run for 57 yds for a TD (RJ Lopez KICK) — UCLA win probability +0.6 pts (now 98%) (top driver: UCLA has the ball).
- TD · Q1 2:18: Collin Schlee run for 1 yd for a TD (RJ Lopez KICK) — NCCU win probability +0.1 pts (now 2%) (top driver: UCLA has the ball).
- FG · Q2 9:33: RJ Lopez 24 yd FG GOOD — UCLA win probability +0.6 pts (now 99%) (top driver: UCLA has the ball).
- TD · Q2 4:34: TJ Harden run for 62 yds for a TD (RJ Lopez KICK) — UCLA win probability +0.1 pts (now 100%) (top driver: UCLA has the ball).
Was that the right call?
Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works
Fourth downs
UCLA made the numbers' call on 1 of 3NCCU made the numbers' call on 9 of 10
- Q1 10:08NCCU 4th & 4 at UCLA 48, down 14Close callPunted · 2.5% before the snapGo for it2.5%48% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call2.5%−<0.1average punt
- Q1 5:45NCCU 4th & 10 at NCCU 25, down 21Agrees with the numbersPunted · 2.2% before the snapGo for it2.1%−0.128% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call2.3%average punt
- Q1 3:45NCCU 4th & 14 at NCCU 14, down 28Agrees with the numbersPunted · 1.4% before the snapGo for it1.2%−0.217% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call1.4%average punt
- Q2 14:54NCCU 4th & 6 at NCCU 42, down 35Agrees with the numbersPunted · 1.0% before the snapGo for it1.1%−<0.140% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call1.1%average punt
- Q2 9:33UCLA 4th & 4 at NCCU 6, up 35Close callKicked a field goal · 98.8% before the snapGo for it98.8%40% to convertField goalTheir call98.7%−<0.191% to makePunt98.3%−0.5average punt
- Q2 6:23NCCU 4th & 12 at NCCU 34, down 38Agrees with the numbersPunted · 0.5% before the snapGo for it0.4%−0.123% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call0.5%average punt
- Q2 0:47NCCU 4th & 15 at NCCU 47, down 45Agrees with the numbersPunted · 0.3% before the snapGo for it0.2%−0.117% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call0.3%average punt
- Q3 13:20NCCU 4th & 3 at NCCU 32, down 45Agrees with the numbersPunted · 0.3% before the snapGo for it0.3%−<0.152% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call0.4%average punt
- Q3 10:38NCCU 4th & 19 at NCCU 28, down 45Agrees with the numbersPunted · 0.2% before the snapGo for it0.1%−0.210% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call0.3%average punt
- Q3 7:46NCCU 4th & 4 at NCCU 34, down 52Agrees with the numbersPunted · 0.1% before the snapGo for it0.2%−<0.148% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call0.2%average punt
- Q4 13:17UCLA 4th & 11 at NCCU 48, up 59Close callWent for it · 99.9% before the snapGo for itTheir call99.9%−0.126% to convertField goalOut of rangePunt100.0%average punt
- Q4 9:23NCCU 4th & 4 at UCLA 36, down 59Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 0.0% before the snapGo for itTheir call0.0%48% to convertField goal-0.0%−0.142% to makePunt-0.0%−0.1average punt
- Q4 2:28UCLA 4th & 9 at UCLA 38, up 52Agrees with the numbersPunted · 100.0% before the snapGo for it99.9%−<0.132% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call99.9%average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
UCLA made the numbers' call on 8 of 8NCCU made the numbers' call on 1 of 1
- Q1 14:42UCLA Touchdown, up 6 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call97.9%97% to makeGo for two97.9%−<0.145% to convert
- Q1 13:46UCLA Touchdown, up 13 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call97.8%97% to makeGo for two97.8%−<0.145% to convert
- Q1 7:38UCLA Touchdown, up 20 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call98.0%97% to makeGo for two98.0%−<0.145% to convert
- Q1 5:27UCLA Touchdown, up 27 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call98.6%97% to makeGo for two98.6%−<0.145% to convert
- Q1 2:18UCLA Touchdown, up 34 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call98.7%97% to makeGo for two98.7%−<0.145% to convert
- Q2 4:34UCLA Touchdown, up 44 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call99.7%97% to makeGo for two99.7%−<0.145% to convert
- Q3 8:44UCLA Touchdown, up 51 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call100.0%97% to makeGo for two100.0%−<0.145% to convert
- Q3 3:36UCLA Touchdown, up 58 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call100.0%97% to makeGo for two100.0%−<0.145% to convert
- Q4 6:08NCCU Touchdown, down 53 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call0.1%97% to makeGo for two0.1%−<0.145% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chartUCLADrive 1TD1 play · 67 yds · 0:0097% → 97%
Q1 14:42
1ST & 10
OWN 33
+67
97.4%
Dante Moore pass complete to Kam Brown for 67 yds for a TD (RJ Lopez KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NCCUDrive 2INT3 plays · 6 yds · 0:433% → 3%
UCLADrive 3TD1 play · 1 yds · 0:0097% → 97%
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NCCUDrive 4PUNT8 plays · 27 yds · 3:353% → 3%
Q1 12:57
1ST & 10
OWN 36
+6
97.3%
Davius Richard pass complete to Devin Smith for 6 yds to the NCCU 42Similar
Q1 12:15
2ND & 4
OWN 42
+4
97.3%
Davius Richard pass complete to Joaquin Davis for 4 yds to the NCCU 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 10:46
3RD & 6
50
+2
97.1%
Davius Richard pass complete to Joaquin Davis for 2 yds to the UCLA 48Similar
Q1 10:08
4TH & 4
OPP 48
0
97.1%
Juan Velarde punt for 36 yds, fair catch by Logan Loya at the UCLA 12Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UCLADrive 5TD6 plays · 88 yds · 2:1497% → 98%
Q1 9:14
2ND & 10
OWN 48
+12
97.2%
Dante Moore pass complete to Moliki Matavao for 12 yds to the NCCU 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 8:46
1ST & 10
OPP 40
+9
97.1%
Dante Moore pass complete to Carson Steele for 9 yds to the NCCU 31Similar
Q1 7:38
1ST & 10
OPP 30
+30
97.5%
Dante Moore pass complete to J. Michael Sturdivant for 30 yds for a TD (RJ Lopez KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NCCUDrive 6PUNT4 plays · 0 yds · 1:523% → 3%
Q1 5:45
4TH & 10
OWN 25
0
97.5%
Juan Velarde punt for 33 yds to the UCLA 42, returned by Logan Loya to the UCLA 43Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UCLADrive 7TD1 play · 57 yds · 0:0098% → 98%
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NCCUDrive 8PUNT5 plays · -4 yds · 1:312% → 2%
UCLADrive 9TD3 plays · 45 yds · 1:1698% → 98%
NCCUDrive 10PUNT7 plays · 17 yds · 2:232% → 1%
UCLADrive 11FG13 plays · 76 yds · 5:0898% → 99%
Q2 14:41
1ST & 10
OWN 18
+30
98.2%
Dante Moore pass complete to J. Michael Sturdivant for 30 yds to the UCLA 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 13:39
3RD & 7
OPP 49
+11
98.1%
Dante Moore pass complete to Keegan Jones for 11 yds to the NCCU 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 11:52
2ND & 10
OPP 28
+16
98.2%
Dante Moore pass complete to Carson Steele for 16 yds to the NCCU 12 for a 1ST downSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NCCUDrive 12PUNT7 plays · 9 yds · 3:051% → 1%
UCLADrive 13TD4 plays · 70 yds · 1:3999% → 100%
Q2 6:13
1ST & 10
OWN 30
+13
99.3%
Ethan Garbers pass complete to Kyle Ford for 13 yds to the UCLA 43 for a 1ST downSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NCCUDrive 14PUNT8 plays · 22 yds · 3:451% → 0%
Q2 4:32
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+6
99.5%
Walker Harris pass complete to Quentin McCall for 6 yds to the NCCU 31Similar
Q2 2:15
2ND & 8
OWN 38
+14
99.6%
Walker Harris pass complete to Devin Smith for 14 yds to the UCLA 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:49
3RD & 3
OPP 41
0
99.6%
North Carolina Central Penalty, turnover on downs. PENALTY Intentional Grounding on HARRIS, Walker enforced a result of a ( Yards) to the NCCU 48Similar
Q2 0:47
4TH & 15
OWN 47
0
99.7%
Juan Velarde punt for 34 yds to the UCLA 19, returned by Logan Loya for no gainSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UCLADrive 15END OF HALF2 plays · 14 yds · 0:26100% → 100%
NCCUDrive 16PUNT4 plays · 7 yds · 1:400% → 0%
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UCLADrive 17INT4 plays · 0 yds · 0:34100% → 100%
Q3 12:46
3RD & 10
OWN 48
0
99.7%
Collin Schlee pass intercepted by Jayden Flaker at the NCCU 37, return for no gain Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NCCUDrive 18PUNT4 plays · -9 yds · 2:070% → 0%
Q3 12:45
1ST & 10
OWN 37
+1
99.7%
Walker Harris pass complete to Devin Smith for 1 yd to the NCCU 38Similar
Q3 11:24
3RD & 11
OWN 36
-8
99.8%
Walker Harris sacked by Donavyn Pellot for a loss of 8 yards to the NCCU 28Similar
Q3 10:38
4TH & 19
OWN 28
0
99.8%
Juan Velarde punt for 44 yds, fair catch by Logan Loya at the UCLA 28Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UCLADrive 19TD5 plays · 72 yds · 1:43100% → 100%
Q3 9:52
2ND & 10
OWN 28
+15
99.7%
Collin Schlee pass complete to Josiah Norwood for 15 yds to the UCLA 43 for a 1ST downSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NCCUDrive 20PUNT4 plays · 6 yds · 0:490% → 0%
UCLADrive 21TD8 plays · 83 yds · 3:59100% → 100%
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NCCUDrive 22FUMBLE6 plays · 37 yds · 3:220% → 0%
UCLADrive 23DOWNS5 plays · 18 yds · 1:45100% → 100%
Q4 13:51
3RD & 7
OPP 44
-4
99.9%
Justyn Martin sacked by Thomas Johnson and Christian Smith for a loss of 4 yards to the NCCU 48Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NCCUDrive 24TD14 plays · 56 yds · 7:080% → 0%
Q4 11:50
3RD & 3
OPP 49
+7
100.0%
Walker Harris pass complete to Devin Smith for 7 yds to the UCLA 42 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 10:24
2ND & 5
OPP 37
-15
100.0%
North Carolina Central Penalty, Unnecessary Roughness (Seven Warren) to the NCCU 47Similar
Q4 10:05
3RD & 21
OWN 47
+17
100.0%
Walker Harris pass complete to Tynez Warner for 17 yds to the UCLA 36Similar
Q4 9:23
4TH & 4
OPP 36
+7
100.0%
Walker Harris pass complete to Tynez Warner for 7 yds to the UCLA 29 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 8:31
3RD & 10
OPP 29
+12
100.0%
Walker Harris pass complete to Joaquin Davis for 12 yds to the UCLA 17 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 7:32
2ND & 8
OPP 15
+6
100.0%
Walker Harris pass complete to Matthew Leavelle for 6 yds to the UCLA 9Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UCLADrive 25PUNT8 plays · 13 yds · 3:35100% → 100%
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NCCUDrive 26END OF GAME5 plays · 33 yds · 2:110% → 0%
Q4 1:43
2ND & 6
OWN 34
+11
100.0%
Walker Harris pass complete to Chauncey Spikes for 11 yds to the NCCU 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
TD · Q1 5:27
Collin Schlee run for 57 yds for a TD (RJ Lopez KICK)
+0.6
FG · Q2 9:33
RJ Lopez 24 yd FG GOOD
+0.6
TD · Q1 7:38
Dante Moore pass complete to J. Michael Sturdivant for 30 yds for a TD (RJ Lopez KICK)
+0.3