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SDSU

San Diego State 9 at Oregon State 26

ORST
2023 · Week 3 · Sep 16, 2023 · Reser Stadium
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Win probability · ORST
modelORST aheadSDSU aheadconfidence bandkey playORST scoreSDSU score
0%25%50%75%100%Q1Q2Q3Q4FGFGTDFGTDTDTDEnd of Game
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q4 8:44 · Jalen Mayden run for 2 yds to the ORST 9 for a 1ST down
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Pregame priorHome team on offenseScore differentialGarbage-time factorScore diff ÷ offense timeoutsScore diff ÷ seconds remaining
+44.0+22.00−22.0−44.0Q1Q2Q3Q4Play 137Pregame prior+9.0Home team on offense+23.4Score differential+10.3Garbage-time factor+7.0Score diff ÷ offense timeouts+8.3Score diff ÷ seconds remaining+0.4
This game in five plays
  1. TD · Q2 8:32: Joshua Gray 3 Yd Run (Two-Point Run Conversion Failed) — ORST win probability +2.4 pts (now 93%) (top driver: ORST has the ball).
  2. TD · Q3 7:40: DJ Uiagalelei run for 1 yd for a TD (Atticus Sappington KICK) — ORST win probability +4.8 pts (now 96%) (top driver: ORST has the ball).
  3. KEY PLAY · Q3 7:40: Kenan Christon run for 9 yds to the SDSU 44 — SDSU win probability +2.3 pts (now 7%) (top driver: SDSU has the ball).
  4. TD · Q4 9:01: Jaylon Armstead 6 Yd Run (Two-Point Run Conversion Failed) — SDSU win probability +3.8 pts (now 10%) (top driver: SDSU has the ball).
  5. TD · Q4 8:48: DJ Uiagalelei pass complete to Anthony Gould for 75 yds for a TD (Atticus Sappington KICK) — ORST win probability +7.9 pts (now 97%) (top driver: ORST has the ball).
Was that the right call?

Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works

Fourth downs
ORST made the numbers' call on 5 of 5SDSU made the numbers' call on 7 of 10
  1. Q1 12:45SDSU 4th & 5 at ORST 41, tied
    Close callPunted · 6.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    7.0%
    42% to convert
    Field goal
    6.9%−0.1
    32% to make
    PuntTheir call
    6.9%−<0.1
    average punt
  2. Q1 7:57ORST 4th & 19 at SDSU 30, tied
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 91.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    91.6%−0.2
    11% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    91.7%
    56% to make
    Punt
    91.6%−0.1
    average punt
  3. Q1 2:18SDSU 4th & 6 at ORST 31, down 3
    Close callKicked a field goal · 9.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    9.7%
    40% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    9.6%−<0.1
    54% to make
    Punt
    9.5%−0.2
    average punt
  4. Q2 13:36ORST 4th & 11 at SDSU 26, up 3
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 89.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    88.8%−0.3
    26% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    89.1%
    64% to make
    Punt
    87.9%−1.1
    average punt
  5. Q2 11:20SDSU 4th & 12 at SDSU 35, down 6
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 10.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    9.8%−0.5
    23% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    10.2%
    average punt
  6. Q2 3:54SDSU 4th & 12 at SDSU 49, down 12
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 8.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    7.7%−0.3
    23% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    8.0%
    average punt
  7. Q2 2:05ORST 4th & 6 at ORST 34, up 12
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 92.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    91.9%−0.2
    40% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    92.1%
    average punt
  8. Q2 0:44SDSU 4th & 13 at ORST 34, down 12
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 8.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    8.0%−0.4
    21% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    8.4%
    47% to make
    Punt
    7.8%−0.6
    average punt
  9. Q3 13:44ORST 4th & 3 at ORST 32, up 9
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 88.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    89.1%−0.2
    52% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    89.3%
    average punt
  10. Q3 11:16SDSU 4th & 5 at ORST 45, down 9
    Close callPunted · 11.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    11.6%
    41% to convert
    Field goal
    10.3%−1.2
    25% to make
    PuntTheir call
    11.3%−0.2
    average punt
  11. Q3 4:05SDSU 4th & 14 at ORST 44, down 16
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 5.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    5.2%−0.5
    19% to convert
    Field goal
    5.3%−0.4
    27% to make
    PuntTheir call
    5.7%
    average punt
  12. Q3 2:30ORST 4th & 5 at ORST 14, up 16
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 95.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    95.1%−0.4
    40% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    95.5%
    average punt
  13. Q3 0:57SDSU 4th & 5 at SDSU 40, down 16
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 5.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    5.3%−<0.1
    41% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    5.4%
    average punt
  14. Q4 8:44SDSU 4th & 1 at ORST 11, down 17
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 3.2% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    3.1%
    71% to convert
    Field goal
    2.4%−0.7
    87% to make
    Punt
    -0.3%−3.4
    average punt
  15. Q4 3:24SDSU 4th & 14 at ORST 32, down 17
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 1.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    1.7%−0.3
    19% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    2.0%
    51% to make
    Punt
    1.7%−0.3
    average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
ORST made the numbers' call on 2 of 3SDSU made the numbers' call on 0 of 1
  1. Q2 8:32ORST Touchdown, up 12 before the try
    Close callWent for two · failed
    Kick
    92.3%
    97% to make
    Go for twoTheir call
    92.3%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  2. Q3 7:40ORST Touchdown, up 15 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    93.9%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    93.9%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  3. Q4 9:01SDSU Touchdown, down 10 before the try
    Close callWent for two · failed
    Kick
    9.4%
    97% to make
    Go for twoTheir call
    8.9%−0.5
    45% to convert
  4. Q4 8:48ORST Touchdown, up 16 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    96.9%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    96.7%−0.2
    45% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chart
SDSUDrive 1PUNT
6 plays · 34 yds · 2:156% → 7%
Q1 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+5
93.9%
Jalen Mayden pass complete to Kenan Christon for 5 yds to the SDSU 30Similar
Q1 15:00
2ND & 5
OWN 30
+24
93.9%
Jalen Mayden run for 24 yds to the ORST 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 46
+5
93.9%
Kenan Christon run for 5 yds to the ORST 41Similar
Q1 15:00
2ND & 5
OPP 41
0
93.9%
Jalen Mayden pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 15:00
3RD & 5
OPP 41
0
93.9%
Jalen Mayden pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 12:45
4TH & 5
OPP 41
0
93.3%
Jack Browning punt for 31 ydsSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ORSTDrive 2FG
12 plays · 60 yds · 4:4893% → 92%
Q1 12:45
1ST & 10
OWN 10
+5
93.4%
DJ Uiagalelei pass complete to Silas Bolden for 5 yds to the ORST 15Similar
Q1 12:45
2ND & 5
OWN 15
+7
93.4%
Damien Martinez run for 7 yds to the ORST 22 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 12:45
1ST & 10
OWN 22
0
93.4%
DJ Uiagalelei pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 12:45
2ND & 10
OWN 22
-5
93.4%
Oregon State Penalty, False Start (-5 Yards) to the ORST 17Similar
Q1 12:45
2ND & 15
OWN 17
+19
93.4%
DJ Uiagalelei pass complete to Jeremiah Noga for 19 yds to the ORST 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 12:45
1ST & 10
OWN 36
0
93.4%
DJ Uiagalelei pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 12:45
2ND & 10
OWN 36
+43
93.4%
Damien Martinez run for 43 yds to the SDSU 21 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 12:45
1ST & 10
OPP 21
-15
93.4%
MARTINEZ, Damien rush to the right for a gain of 9 yards to the SDS12, out of bounds. PENALTY OSU Tripping on GRAY, Joshua enforced 15 yards from the SDS21 to the SDS36 [SG]. NO PLAY (replay the down).Similar
Q1 12:45
1ST & 25
OPP 36
0
93.4%
DJ Uiagalelei pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 12:45
2ND & 25
OPP 36
+11
93.4%
DJ Uiagalelei pass complete to Anthony Gould for 11 yds to the SDSU 25Similar
Q1 12:45
3RD & 14
OPP 25
-5
93.4%
Deshaun Fenwick run for a loss of 5 yards to the SDSU 30Similar
Q1 7:57
4TH & 19
OPP 30
+48
92.2%
Atticus Sappington 48 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SDSUDrive 3MISSED FG
10 plays · 44 yds · 5:398% → 9%
Q1 7:57
1ST & 10
OWN 25
-2
92.4%
Kenan Christon run for a loss of 2 yards to the SDSU 23Similar
Q1 7:57
2ND & 12
OWN 23
+10
92.4%
Jalen Mayden pass complete to Baylin Brooks for 10 yds to the SDSU 33Similar
Q1 7:57
3RD & 2
OWN 33
+3
92.3%
Jaylon Armstead run for 3 yds to the SDSU 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 7:57
1ST & 10
OWN 36
+5
92.3%
Jalen Mayden pass complete to Phillippe Wesley II for 5 yds to the SDSU 41Similar
Q1 7:57
2ND & 5
OWN 41
0
92.2%
Jalen Mayden pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 7:57
3RD & 5
OWN 41
+24
92.2%
Jalen Mayden pass complete to Mark Redman for 24 yds to the ORST 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 7:57
1ST & 10
OPP 35
-2
92.1%
Cam Davis run for a loss of 2 yards to the ORST 37Similar
Q1 7:57
2ND & 12
OPP 37
+1
92.2%
Jalen Mayden run for 1 yd to the ORST 36Similar
Q1 7:57
3RD & 11
OPP 36
+5
92.2%
Jalen Mayden pass complete to Cam Davis for 5 yds to the ORST 31Similar
Q1 2:18
4TH & 6
OPP 31
+48
90.6%
Jack Browning 48 yd FG MISSEDSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ORSTDrive 4FG
11 plays · 43 yds · 3:4291% → 91%
Q1 2:18
1ST & 10
OWN 31
+4
90.7%
Damien Martinez run for 4 yds to the ORST 35Similar
Q1 2:18
2ND & 6
OWN 35
+5
90.8%
Damien Martinez run for 5 yds to the ORST 40Similar
Q1 2:18
3RD & 1
OWN 40
+14
90.9%
DJ Uiagalelei run for 14 yds to the SDSU 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 2:18
1ST & 10
OPP 46
0
91.1%
DJ Uiagalelei pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 2:18
2ND & 10
OPP 46
+7
91.1%
Damien Martinez run for 7 yds to the SDSU 39Similar
Q1 0:00
3RD & 3
OPP 39
+3
90.4%
Damien Martinez run for 3 yds to the SDSU 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 36
+11
90.5%
DJ Uiagalelei pass complete to Anthony Gould for 11 yds to the SDSU 25 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 25
-1
90.6%
Damien Martinez run for a loss of 1 yard to the SDSU 26Similar
Q2 15:00
2ND & 11
OPP 26
0
90.6%
DJ Uiagalelei pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 15:00
3RD & 11
OPP 26
0
90.3%
DJ Uiagalelei pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 13:36
4TH & 11
OPP 26
+44
90.8%
Atticus Sappington 44 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SDSUDrive 5PUNT
4 plays · -2 yds · 2:0910% → 10%
Q2 13:29
1ST & 10
OWN 37
-8
90.2%
Jalen Mayden sacked by Ryan Cooper Jr. and James Rawls for a loss of 8 yards to the SDSU 29Similar
Q2 13:29
2ND & 18
OWN 29
+14
90.5%
Jalen Mayden pass complete to Mark Redman for 14 yds to the SDSU 43Similar
Q2 13:29
3RD & 4
OWN 43
-8
90.0%
Jalen Mayden sacked by Andrew Chatfield Jr. for a loss of 8 yards to the SDSU 35Similar
Q2 11:20
4TH & 12
OWN 35
0
90.2%
Jack Browning punt for 45 yds, fair catch by Anthony Gould at the ORST 20Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ORSTDrive 6TD
6 plays · 80 yds · 2:4891% → 93%
Q2 11:20
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+31
90.5%
DJ Uiagalelei pass complete to Jack Velling for 31 yds to the SDSU 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 11:20
1ST & 10
OPP 49
-2
91.0%
Damien Martinez run for a loss of 2 yards to the ORST 49Similar
Q2 11:20
2ND & 12
OWN 49
+35
90.7%
DJ Uiagalelei pass complete to Rweha Munyagi Jr. for 35 yds to the SDSU 16 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 11:20
1ST & 10
OPP 16
+4
91.1%
Anthony Gould run for 4 yds to the SDSU 12Similar
Q2 11:20
2ND & 6
OPP 12
+9
91.1%
Damien Martinez run for 9 yds to the SDSU 3 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 8:32
1ST & GOAL
OPP 3
+3
93.4%
Joshua Gray 3 Yd Run (Two-Point Run Conversion Failed)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SDSUDrive 7PUNT
9 plays · 27 yds · 4:348% → 7%
Q2 8:28
1ST & 10
OWN 22
+3
92.2%
Jaylon Armstead run for 3 yds to the SDSU 25Similar
Q2 8:28
2ND & 7
OWN 25
+10
92.1%
Jaylon Armstead run for 10 yds to the SDSU 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 8:28
1ST & 10
OWN 35
+16
92.1%
Jalen Mayden pass complete to Kenan Christon for 16 yds to the ORST 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 8:28
1ST & 10
OPP 49
+1
91.7%
Cam Davis run for 1 yd to the ORST 48Similar
Q2 5:21
2ND & 9
OPP 48
-5
92.2%
San Diego State Penalty, Delay Of Game (Jaylon Armstead) to the SDSU 47Similar
Q2 5:21
2ND & 14
OWN 47
+9
92.5%
Jalen Mayden pass complete to Brionne Penny for 9 yds to the ORST 44Similar
Q2 5:21
3RD & 5
OPP 44
-7
92.2%
Jalen Mayden sacked by Andrew Chatfield Jr. for a loss of 7 yards to the SDSU 49Similar
Q2 3:54
4TH & 12
OWN 49
0
92.7%
Jack Browning punt for 51 yds for a touchbackSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ORSTDrive 8PUNT
6 plays · 14 yds · 1:4993% → 93%
Q2 3:54
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+5
93.2%
Deshaun Fenwick run for 5 yds to the ORST 25Similar
Q2 3:54
2ND & 5
OWN 25
+5
93.2%
DJ Uiagalelei pass complete to Silas Bolden for 5 yds to the ORST 30 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 3:54
1ST & 10
OWN 30
+4
93.2%
Deshaun Fenwick run for 4 yds to the ORST 34Similar
Q2 3:54
2ND & 6
OWN 34
0
93.3%
DJ Uiagalelei pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 3:54
3RD & 6
OWN 34
0
93.0%
DJ Uiagalelei pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 2:05
4TH & 6
OWN 34
0
92.9%
Josh Green punt for 31 ydsSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SDSUDrive 9FG
10 plays · 31 yds · 1:218% → 10%
Q2 2:05
1ST & 10
OWN 35
0
92.4%
Jalen Mayden pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 2:05
2ND & 10
OWN 35
+6
92.5%
Jalen Mayden run for 6 yds to the SDSU 41Similar
Q2 2:05
3RD & 4
OWN 41
+4
92.2%
Jalen Mayden pass complete to Brionne Penny for 4 yds to the SDSU 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 2:05
1ST & 10
OWN 45
+24
92.2%
Jalen Mayden pass complete to Brionne Penny for 24 yds to the ORST 31 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 2:05
1ST & 10
OPP 31
0
91.6%
Jalen Mayden pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 0:56
2ND & 10
OPP 31
-10
90.9%
Jalen Mayden sacked by Isaac Hodgins for a loss of 10 yards to the ORST 41Similar
Q2 0:50
3RD & 20
OPP 41
+7
91.8%
Jalen Mayden run for 7 yds to the ORST 34Similar
Q2 0:44
4TH & 13
OPP 34
+52
89.6%
Jack Browning 52 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ORSTDrive 10MISSED FG
7 plays · 45 yds · 0:4489% → 91%
Q2 0:44
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+11
89.4%
Deshaun Fenwick run for 11 yds to the ORST 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:44
1ST & 10
OWN 36
+2
89.8%
DJ Uiagalelei run for 2 yds to the ORST 38Similar
Q2 0:44
2ND & 8
OWN 38
0
89.9%
DJ Uiagalelei pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 0:44
3RD & 8
OWN 38
+8
89.3%
Deshaun Fenwick run for 8 yds to the ORST 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:01
1ST & 10
OWN 46
+24
90.9%
DJ Uiagalelei pass complete to Trent Walker for 24 yds to the SDSU 30 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:00
1ST & 10
OPP 30
+48
91.3%
Atticus Sappington 48 yd FG MISSEDSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ORSTDrive 11PUNT
4 plays · 7 yds · 1:0890% → 89%
Q3 14:52
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+7
89.7%
Damien Martinez run for 7 yds to the ORST 32Similar
Q3 14:52
2ND & 3
OWN 32
0
90.1%
Damien Martinez run for no gain to the ORST 32Similar
Q3 14:52
3RD & 3
OWN 32
0
89.5%
DJ Uiagalelei pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 13:44
4TH & 3
OWN 32
0
89.0%
Josh Green punt for 44 ydsSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SDSUDrive 12PUNT
6 plays · 30 yds · 2:2811% → 11%
Q3 13:44
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+1
89.1%
Jaylon Armstead run for 1 yd to the SDSU 26Similar
Q3 13:44
2ND & 9
OWN 26
+24
89.1%
Jalen Mayden pass complete to Baylin Brooks for 24 yds to the 50 yard line for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 13:44
1ST & 10
50
+4
87.9%
Jaylon Armstead run for 4 yds to the ORST 46Similar
Q3 13:44
2ND & 6
OPP 46
0
87.9%
Jalen Mayden pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 13:44
3RD & 6
OPP 46
+1
88.1%
Jalen Mayden run for 1 yd to the ORST 45Similar
Q3 11:16
4TH & 5
OPP 45
0
89.0%
Jack Browning punt for 29 yds, downed at the ORST 16Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ORSTDrive 13TD
7 plays · 84 yds · 3:3690% → 96%
Q3 11:16
1ST & 10
OWN 16
0
89.7%
DJ Uiagalelei pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 11:16
2ND & 10
OWN 16
+20
89.6%
DJ Uiagalelei pass complete to Jack Velling for 20 yds to the ORST 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 11:16
1ST & 10
OWN 36
+5
90.1%
Damien Martinez run for 5 yds to the ORST 41Similar
Q3 11:16
2ND & 5
OWN 41
+9
90.5%
Damien Martinez run for 9 yds to the 50 yard line for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 11:16
1ST & 10
50
+31
90.7%
DJ Uiagalelei pass complete to Silas Bolden for 31 yds to the SDSU 19 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 11:16
1ST & 10
OPP 19
+18
90.9%
Silas Bolden run for 18 yds to the SDSU 1 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 7:40
1ST & GOAL
OPP 1
+1
95.7%
DJ Uiagalelei run for 1 yd for a TD (Atticus Sappington KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SDSUDrive 14PUNT
6 plays · 21 yds · 3:357% → 5%
Q3 7:40
1ST & 10
OWN 35
+9
93.3%
Kenan Christon run for 9 yds to the SDSU 44Similar
Q3 7:40
2ND & 1
OWN 44
+16
92.8%
Jalen Mayden run for 16 yds to the ORST 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 7:40
1ST & 10
OPP 40
+4
92.9%
Jaylon Armstead run for 4 yds to the ORST 36Similar
Q3 7:40
2ND & 6
OPP 36
+1
92.7%
Kenan Christon run for 1 yd to the ORST 35Similar
Q3 7:40
3RD & 5
OPP 35
-9
93.0%
Jalen Mayden sacked by Takari Hickle for a loss of 9 yards to the ORST 44Similar
Q3 4:05
4TH & 14
OPP 44
0
94.6%
Jack Browning punt for 35 yds, downed at the ORST 9Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ORSTDrive 15PUNT
5 plays · 5 yds · 1:3596% → 95%
Q3 4:05
1ST & 10
OWN 9
0
95.7%
Deshaun Fenwick run for no gain to the ORST 9Similar
Q3 4:05
2ND & 10
OWN 9
0
95.7%
DJ Uiagalelei pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 4:05
3RD & 10
OWN 9
+5
95.6%
DJ Uiagalelei pass complete to Jeremiah Noga for 5 yds to the ORST 14Similar
Q3 2:30
4TH & 5
OWN 14
0
95.4%
Josh Green punt for 51 ydsSimilar
Q3 2:30
1ST & 10
OWN 35
+5
94.5%
Oregon State Penalty, Offsides (James Rawls) to the SDSU 40Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SDSUDrive 16PUNT
4 plays · 5 yds · 1:336% → 5%
Q3 2:30
1ST & 5
OWN 40
+3
94.3%
Kenan Christon run for 3 yds to the SDSU 43Similar
Q3 2:30
2ND & 2
OWN 43
-3
94.3%
Kenan Christon run for a loss of 3 yards to the SDSU 40Similar
Q3 2:30
3RD & 5
OWN 40
0
94.4%
Jalen Mayden pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 0:57
4TH & 5
OWN 40
0
94.7%
Jack Browning punt for 40 yds, fair catch by Anthony Gould at the ORST 20Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ORSTDrive 17INT
6 plays · 14 yds · 1:4896% → 96%
Q3 0:57
1ST & 10
OWN 20
0
96.1%
DJ Uiagalelei pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 0:57
2ND & 10
OWN 20
+4
96.1%
DJ Uiagalelei pass complete to Damien Martinez for 4 yds to the ORST 24Similar
Q3 0:00
3RD & 6
OWN 24
+8
96.0%
DJ Uiagalelei pass complete to Jeremiah Noga for 8 yds to the ORST 32 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 32
0
96.2%
DJ Uiagalelei pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 15:00
2ND & 10
OWN 32
+2
96.2%
Damien Martinez run for 2 yds to the ORST 34Similar
Q4 14:09
3RD & 8
OWN 34
0
96.3%
DJ Uiagalelei pass interceptedSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SDSUDrive 18TD
9 plays · 57 yds · 5:086% → 10%
Q4 14:09
1ST & 10
OWN 43
+1
94.5%
Kenan Christon run for 1 yd to the SDSU 44Similar
Q4 14:09
2ND & 9
OWN 44
+7
94.5%
Jalen Mayden pass complete to Jaylon Armstead for 7 yds to the ORST 49Similar
Q4 14:09
3RD & 2
OPP 49
+3
94.5%
Jaylon Armstead run for 3 yds to the ORST 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 14:09
1ST & 10
OPP 46
+15
94.3%
Oregon State Penalty, Face mask (15 yards) (Calvin Hart Jr.) to the ORST 24 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 14:09
1ST & 10
OPP 24
+9
93.4%
Jalen Mayden pass complete to Kenan Christon for 9 yds to the ORST 15Similar
Q4 14:09
2ND & 1
OPP 15
+2
93.4%
Jalen Mayden run for 2 yds to the ORST 13 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 14:09
1ST & 10
OPP 13
0
93.4%
Jaylon Armstead run for no gain to the ORST 13Similar
Q4 14:09
2ND & 10
OPP 13
+7
93.4%
Jaylon Armstead run for 7 yds to the ORST 6Similar
Q4 9:01
3RD & 3
OPP 6
+6
89.6%
Jaylon Armstead 6 Yd Run (Two-Point Run Conversion Failed)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ORSTDrive 19TD
1 play · 75 yds · 0:0097% → 97%
Q4 8:48
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+75
97.4%
DJ Uiagalelei pass complete to Anthony Gould for 75 yds for a TD (Atticus Sappington KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SDSUDrive 20INT
10 plays · 69 yds · 3:043% → 3%
Q4 8:44
1ST & 10
OWN 22
+9
97.3%
Jalen Mayden pass complete to Brionne Penny for 9 yds to the SDSU 31Similar
Q4 8:44
2ND & 1
OWN 31
+22
97.1%
Jalen Mayden pass complete to Brionne Penny for 22 yds to the ORST 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 8:44
1ST & 10
OPP 47
+10
97.1%
Jalen Mayden pass complete to Mark Redman for 10 yds to the ORST 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 8:44
1ST & 10
OPP 37
+17
97.1%
Jalen Mayden pass complete to Phillippe Wesley II for 17 yds to the ORST 20 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 8:44
1ST & 10
OPP 20
0
96.6%
Jalen Mayden pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 8:44
2ND & 10
OPP 20
0
96.7%
Jalen Mayden pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 8:44
3RD & 10
OPP 20
+9
97.0%
Jalen Mayden pass complete to Brionne Penny for 9 yds to the ORST 11Similar
Q4 8:44
4TH & 1
OPP 11
+2
96.9%
Jalen Mayden run for 2 yds to the ORST 9 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 8:44
1ST & GOAL
OPP 9
0
96.6%
Jalen Mayden pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 5:40
2ND & GOAL
OPP 9
0
97.0%
Jalen Mayden pass intercepted, touchback.Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ORSTDrive 21INT
2 plays · 4 yds · 0:5698% → 98%
Q4 5:40
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+4
97.9%
Damien Martinez run for 4 yds to the ORST 24Similar
Q4 4:44
2ND & 6
OWN 24
0
98.1%
DJ Uiagalelei pass interceptedSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SDSUDrive 22MISSED FG
6 plays · 25 yds · 1:202% → 2%
Q4 4:44
1ST & 10
OWN 43
+29
98.0%
Jalen Mayden pass complete to Mark Redman for 29 yds to the ORST 28 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 4:44
1ST & 10
OPP 28
+4
97.6%
Jalen Mayden pass complete to Kenan Christon for 4 yds to the ORST 24Similar
Q4 4:44
2ND & 6
OPP 24
0
97.6%
Jalen Mayden pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 3:30
3RD & 6
OPP 24
-8
97.9%
Jalen Mayden sacked by Akili Arnold and Joe Golden for a loss of 8 yards to the ORST 32Similar
Q4 3:24
4TH & 14
OPP 32
+49
98.2%
Jack Browning 49 yd FG MISSEDSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ORSTDrive 23END OF GAME
5 plays · 24 yds · 3:2499% → 99%
Q4 3:24
1ST & 10
OWN 32
+7
98.6%
Deshaun Fenwick run for 7 yds to the ORST 39Similar
Q4 3:24
2ND & 3
OWN 39
+10
98.7%
Deshaun Fenwick run for 10 yds to the ORST 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 3:24
1ST & 10
OWN 49
+6
98.7%
Deshaun Fenwick run for 6 yds to the SDSU 45Similar
Q4 3:24
2ND & 4
OPP 45
+3
98.8%
Deshaun Fenwick run for 3 yds to the SDSU 42Similar
Q4 0:00
3RD & 1
OPP 42
0
99.0%
Kneel down by UIAGALELEI, DJ at SDS44 (team loss of 2), clock 00:00.Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
TD · Q4 8:48
DJ Uiagalelei pass complete to Anthony Gould for 75 yds for a TD (Atticus Sappington KICK)
+7.9
TD · Q3 7:40
DJ Uiagalelei run for 1 yd for a TD (Atticus Sappington KICK)
+4.8
TD · Q4 9:01
Jaylon Armstead 6 Yd Run (Two-Point Run Conversion Failed)
-3.8
YardLine · model v10Model estimate - not betting advice · Data provided by CollegeFootballData.com