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CSU

Colorado State 35 at Colorado 43

COLO
2023 · Week 3 · Sep 16, 2023 · Folsom Field
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Win probability · COLO
modelCOLO aheadCSU aheadconfidence bandkey playCOLO scoreCSU score
0%25%50%75%100%Q1Q2Q3Q4OTOT2TDTDTDTDTDFGTDFGTDTDTDTDEnd of Game
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q2 0:18 · Paddy Turner punt for 38 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the COLO 34
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Pregame priorHome team on offenseGarbage-time factorScore differentialScore diff ÷ offense timeoutsTime remaining
+39.5+19.80−19.8−39.5Q1Q2Q3Q4OTOT2Play 98Pregame prior+22.9Home team on offense−7.1Garbage-time factor−2.9Score differential−2.7Score diff ÷ offense timeouts−2.2Time remaining−0.8
This game in five plays
  1. TD · Q4 11:22: Brayden Fowler-Nicolosi pass complete to Dallin Holker for 35 yds for a TD (Jordan Noyes KICK) — CSU win probability +20.6 pts (now 81%) (top driver: CSU has the ball).
  2. TD · Q4 0:36: Shedeur Sanders pass complete to Jimmy Horn Jr. for 45 yds for a TD (Shedeur Sanders pass to Michael Harrison for Two-Point Conversion) — COLO win probability +51.3 pts (now 61%) (top driver: COLO has the ball).
  3. TD · OT 0:00: Shedeur Sanders pass complete to Michael Harrison for 3 yds for a TD (Alejandro Mata KICK) — COLO win probability +17.0 pts (now 83%) (top driver: COLO has the ball).
  4. TD · OT 0:00: Brayden Fowler-Nicolosi pass complete to Tory Horton for 8 yds for a TD (Jordan Noyes KICK) — CSU win probability +39.0 pts (now 59%) (top driver: offense timeouts not recorded for this play).
  5. TD · OT2 0:00: Shedeur Sanders pass complete to Michael Harrison for 18 yds for a TD (Shedeur Sanders pass to Xavier Weaver for Two-Point Conversion) — COLO win probability +20.4 pts (now 89%) (top driver: COLO has the ball).
Was that the right call?

Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works

Fourth downs
COLO made the numbers' call on 7 of 8CSU made the numbers' call on 5 of 7
  1. Q1 13:14CSU 4th & 27 at CSU 8, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 9.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    9.0%−0.2
    6% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    9.2%
    average punt
  2. Q1 1:05CSU 4th & 16 at CSU 37, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 13.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    12.8%−0.4
    15% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    13.2%
    average punt
  3. Q2 14:35COLO 4th & 8 at COLO 31, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 85.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    85.8%−0.3
    33% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    86.1%
    average punt
  4. Q2 13:08CSU 4th & 6 at CSU 20, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 14.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    14.0%−0.1
    38% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    14.1%
    average punt
  5. Q2 11:35COLO 4th & 8 at COLO 42, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 84.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    84.8%−0.2
    34% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    85.0%
    average punt
  6. Q2 2:05COLO 4th & 15 at COLO 20, down 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 68.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    66.4%−1.8
    16% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    68.3%
    average punt
  7. Q2 0:18CSU 4th & 28 at CSU 28, up 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 31.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    29.2%−2.4
    6% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    31.7%
    average punt
  8. Q3 13:09COLO 4th & 11 at COLO 23, down 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 63.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    62.4%−2.8
    25% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    65.2%
    average punt
  9. Q3 9:26COLO 4th & 6 at COLO 35, down 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 59.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    59.6%−1.3
    40% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    60.8%
    average punt
  10. Q3 7:40CSU 4th & 2 at COLO 35, up 7
    Numbers favored go for it by 2.6 ptsKicked a field goal · 45.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    46.4%
    57% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    43.8%−2.6
    45% to make
    Punt
    42.6%−3.8
    average punt
  11. Q3 4:24COLO 4th & 6 at CSU 21, down 7
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 55.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    54.2%−0.7
    38% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    54.8%
    74% to make
    Punt
    42.3%−12.5
    average punt
  12. Q4 14:24COLO 4th & 2 at CSU 2, down 7
    Numbers favored go for it by 3.7 ptsKicked a field goal · 46.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    47.8%
    48% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    44.1%−3.7
    94% to make
    Punt
    28.9%−18.9
    average punt
  13. Q4 7:33COLO 4th & 18 at CSU 23, down 11
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 16.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    15.1%−2.0
    12% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    17.1%
    70% to make
    Punt
    11.8%−5.2
    average punt
  14. Q4 2:06CSU 4th & 2 at COLO 45, up 8
    Numbers favored go for it by 1.2 ptsPunted · 93.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    93.4%
    57% to convert
    Field goal
    91.5%−1.9
    25% to make
    PuntTheir call
    92.1%−1.2
    average punt
  15. Q4 0:07CSU 4th & 7 at CSU 28, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 45.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    36.4%−8.9
    36% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    45.2%
    average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
COLO made the numbers' call on 3 of 3CSU made the numbers' call on 4 of 4
  1. Q1 8:09COLO Touchdown, up 6 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    90.1%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    90.1%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  2. Q1 7:12CSU Touchdown, down 1 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    10.9%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    10.9%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  3. Q1 6:16CSU Touchdown, up 6 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    12.4%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    12.4%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  4. Q1 3:41COLO Touchdown, down 1 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    87.8%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    87.7%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  5. Q2 4:08CSU Touchdown, up 6 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    26.4%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    26.3%−0.1
    45% to convert
  6. Q4 11:22CSU Touchdown, up 10 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    74.4%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    74.1%−0.3
    45% to convert
  7. Q4 0:36COLO Touchdown, down 2 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersWent for two · converted
    Kick
    19.6%−10.7
    97% to make
    Go for twoTheir call
    30.3%
    45% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chart
CSUDrive 1PUNT
7 plays · -17 yds · 1:4611% → 11%
Q1 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 25
-10
89.3%
Fowler-Nicolosi, Brayden pass complete to Horton, Tory for 2 yards to the COLORADOST27, PENALTY COLORADOST holding 10 yards to the COLORADOST15, NO PLAY.Similar
Q1 14:43
1ST & 20
OWN 15
-8
89.3%
Fowler-Nicolosi, Brayden pass complete to Morrow, Avery for 4 yards to the COLORADOST19, PENALTY COLORADOST illegal block 8 yards to the COLORADOST7, NO PLAY.Similar
Q1 14:12
1ST & 28
OWN 7
+1
89.1%
Avery Morrow run for 1 yd to the CSU 8Similar
Q1 13:38
2ND & 27
OWN 8
0
89.0%
Brayden Fowler-Nicolosi pass incomplete to Justus Ross-SimmonsSimilar
Q1 13:33
3RD & 27
OWN 8
0
89.0%
Brayden Fowler-Nicolosi pass incomplete to Avery MorrowSimilar
Q1 13:14
4TH & 27
OWN 8
0
88.9%
Paddy Turner punt for 46 yds, downed at the COLO 46Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
COLODrive 2INT
4 plays · -1 yds · 1:0289% → 89%
Q1 13:14
1ST & 10
OWN 46
+1
88.9%
Dylan Edwards run for 1 yd to the COLO 47Similar
Q1 12:50
2ND & 9
OWN 47
+3
88.8%
Shedeur Sanders pass complete to Dylan Edwards for 3 yds to the 50 yard lineSimilar
Q1 12:26
3RD & 6
50
-5
88.7%
Colorado Penalty, False Start (-5 Yards) to the COLO 45Similar
Q1 12:12
3RD & 11
OWN 45
0
88.6%
Shedeur Sanders pass intercepted Henry Blackburn return for no gain to the CSU 24Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CSUDrive 3INT TD
12 plays · 54 yds · 4:0312% → 12%
Q1 12:12
1ST & 10
OWN 24
+6
88.5%
Kobe Johnson run for 6 yds to the CSU 30Similar
Q1 11:43
2ND & 5
OWN 30
+14
88.4%
Brayden Fowler-Nicolosi pass complete to Dallin Holker for 14 yds to the CSU 44 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 11:11
1ST & 10
OWN 44
+5
88.1%
Kobe Johnson run for 5 yds to the CSU 49Similar
Q1 10:44
2ND & 5
OWN 49
0
87.9%
Brayden Fowler-Nicolosi pass incomplete to Kobe JohnsonSimilar
Q1 10:40
3RD & 5
OWN 49
+14
87.9%
Brayden Fowler-Nicolosi pass complete to Tory Horton for 14 yds to the COLO 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 10:18
1ST & 10
OPP 37
+4
87.7%
Kobe Johnson run for 4 yds to the COLO 33Similar
Q1 9:54
2ND & 6
OPP 33
+1
87.5%
Kobe Johnson run for 1 yd to the COLO 32Similar
Q1 9:12
3RD & 5
OPP 32
-1
87.4%
Brayden Fowler-Nicolosi pass complete to Tory Horton for a loss of 1 yard to the COLO 33Similar
Q1 8:41
4TH & 6
OPP 33
+15
87.3%
Noyes, Jordan field goal attempt from 50 GOOD, clock 08:41, PENALTY COLORADO personal foul 15 yards to the COLORADO18, NO PLAY, 1ST DOWN COLORADOST.Similar
Q1 8:35
1ST & 10
OPP 18
-4
87.0%
Brayden Fowler-Nicolosi sacked by Marvin Ham II for a loss of 4 yards to the COLO 22Similar
Q1 8:09
2ND & 14
OPP 22
-80
88.1%
Brayden Fowler-Nicolosi pass intercepted for a TD Shilo Sanders return for 80 yds for a TD (Jace Feely KICK)Similar
Q1 8:09
1ST & 10
OWN 35
+15
88.5%
Colorado State Penalty, Unsportsmanlike Conduct (15 Yards) to the 50 yard lineSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CSUDrive 4TD
4 plays · 75 yds · 0:5712% → 14%
Q1 8:09
1ST & 10
OWN 25
-1
88.4%
Kobe Johnson run for a loss of 1 yard to the CSU 24Similar
Q1 7:43
2ND & 11
OWN 24
+46
88.4%
Brayden Fowler-Nicolosi pass complete to Louis Brown for 46 yds to the COLO 30 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 7:12
1ST & 10
OPP 30
+30
86.4%
Tory Horton pass complete to Dallin Holker for 30 yds for a TD (Jordan Noyes KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
COLODrive 5FUMBLE RETURN TD
5 plays · 20 yds · 0:5687% → 85%
Q1 7:12
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+10
87.0%
Dylan Edwards run for 10 yds to the COLO 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 6:56
1ST & 10
OWN 35
0
86.9%
Shedeur Sanders pass complete to Jimmy Horn Jr. for no gain to the COLO 35Similar
Q1 6:16
2ND & 10
OWN 35
+45
85.1%
Ron Hardge III 45 Yd Fumble Return (Jordan Noyes Kick)Similar
Q1 6:16
1ST & 10
OWN 35
-15
84.7%
Colorado State Penalty, Unsportsmanlike Conduct (-15 Yards) to the CSU 20Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
COLODrive 6TD
10 plays · 71 yds · 2:2885% → 86%
Q1 6:09
1ST & 10
OWN 29
+3
85.0%
Shedeur Sanders pass complete to Xavier Weaver for 3 yds to the COLO 32Similar
Q1 5:47
2ND & 7
OWN 32
+1
84.8%
Anthony Hankerson run for 1 yd to the COLO 33Similar
Q1 5:21
3RD & 6
OWN 33
+11
84.4%
Shedeur Sanders pass complete to Travis Hunter for 11 yds to the COLO 44 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 5:03
1ST & 10
OWN 44
0
84.7%
Shedeur Sanders pass incomplete to Jimmy Horn Jr.Similar
Q1 4:59
2ND & 10
OWN 44
+15
84.5%
Sanders, Shedeur pass incomplete to Hunter, Travis, PENALTY COLORADOST pass interference 15 yards to the COLORADOST41, NO PLAY, 1ST DOWN COLORADO.Similar
Q1 4:59
1ST & 10
OPP 41
+15
84.9%
Colorado State Penalty, Unnecessary Roughness (15 Yards) to the CSU 26 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 4:53
1ST & 10
OPP 26
+3
85.1%
Anthony Hankerson run for 3 yds to the CSU 23Similar
Q1 4:23
2ND & 7
OPP 23
-1
84.8%
Shedeur Sanders pass complete to Anthony Hankerson for a loss of 1 yard to the CSU 24Similar
Q1 3:41
3RD & 8
OPP 24
+24
86.3%
Shedeur Sanders pass complete to Xavier Weaver for 24 yds for a TD (Jace Feely KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CSUDrive 7PUNT
9 plays · 6 yds · 2:2615% → 15%
Q1 3:31
1ST & 10
OWN 31
+12
85.5%
Brayden Fowler-Nicolosi pass complete to Tory Horton for 12 yds to the CSU 43 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 3:23
1ST & 10
OWN 43
-5
85.0%
Colorado State Penalty, False Start (-5 Yards) to the CSU 38Similar
Q1 3:23
1ST & 15
OWN 38
+4
85.4%
Brayden Fowler-Nicolosi pass complete to Tory Horton for 4 yds to the CSU 42Similar
Q1 2:48
2ND & 11
OWN 42
+1
84.9%
Avery Morrow run for 1 yd to the CSU 43Similar
Q1 2:08
3RD & 10
OWN 43
-5
84.6%
Colorado State Penalty, False Start (-5 Yards) to the CSU 38Similar
Q1 1:45
3RD & 15
OWN 38
-1
84.7%
Brayden Fowler-Nicolosi sacked by Amari McNeill for a loss of 1 yard to the CSU 37Similar
Q1 1:05
4TH & 16
OWN 37
0
84.8%
Paddy Turner punt for 43 yds, downed at the COLO 20Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
COLODrive 8PUNT
6 plays · 12 yds · 1:3085% → 84%
Q1 1:05
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+10
84.8%
Dylan Edwards run for 10 yds to the COLO 30 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 0:49
1ST & 10
OWN 30
0
84.8%
Shedeur Sanders pass complete to Dylan Edwards for no gain to the COLO 30Similar
Q1 0:25
2ND & 10
OWN 30
+7
84.5%
Shedeur Sanders pass complete to Jimmy Horn Jr. for 7 yds to the COLO 37Similar
Q1 0:06
3RD & 3
OWN 37
0
84.6%
Shedeur Sanders pass incomplete to Jimmy Horn Jr.Similar
Q2 15:00
4TH & 3
OWN 37
-5
84.1%
Vassett, Mark punt 46 yards to the COLORADOST17, downed, PENALTY COLORADO illegal formation 5 yards to the COLORADO32, NO PLAY.Similar
Q2 14:35
4TH & 8
OWN 31
+1
83.6%
Mark Vassett punt for 54 yds , Tory Horton returns for 1 yd to the CSU 16Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CSUDrive 9PUNT
5 plays · 4 yds · 1:2716% → 16%
Q2 14:35
1ST & 10
OWN 16
+3
83.7%
Kobe Johnson run for 3 yds to the CSU 19Similar
Q2 13:58
2ND & 7
OWN 19
+1
83.5%
Brayden Fowler-Nicolosi pass complete to Justus Ross-Simmons for 1 yd to the CSU 20Similar
Q2 13:19
3RD & 6
OWN 20
0
83.5%
Brayden Fowler-Nicolosi pass incomplete to Dallin HolkerSimilar
Q2 13:08
4TH & 6
OWN 20
0
83.8%
Paddy Turner punt for 40 yds, fair catch by Xavier Weaver at the COLO 40Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
COLODrive 10PUNT
5 plays · 2 yds · 1:3384% → 83%
Q2 13:08
1ST & 10
OWN 40
-15
84.4%
Sanders, Shedeur rush for 8 yards to the COLORADO48, PENALTY COLORADO face mask 15 yards to the COLORADO25, NO PLAY.Similar
Q2 12:50
1ST & 25
OWN 25
-1
83.5%
Shedeur Sanders pass complete to Dylan Edwards for a loss of 1 yard to the COLO 24Similar
Q2 12:20
2ND & 26
OWN 24
+3
83.3%
Shedeur Sanders pass complete to Dylan Edwards for 3 yds to the COLO 27Similar
Q2 11:58
3RD & 23
OWN 27
+15
82.7%
Shedeur Sanders run for 15 yds to the COLO 42Similar
Q2 11:35
4TH & 8
OWN 42
0
82.8%
Mark Vassett punt for 47 yds, fair catch by Tory Horton at the CSU 11Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CSUDrive 11TD
16 plays · 89 yds · 7:2718% → 33%
Q2 11:35
1ST & 10
OWN 11
+7
82.5%
Avery Morrow run for 7 yds to the CSU 18Similar
Q2 11:06
2ND & 3
OWN 18
+11
82.2%
Brayden Fowler-Nicolosi pass complete to Louis Brown for 11 yds to the CSU 29 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 10:38
1ST & 10
OWN 29
+4
81.7%
Brayden Fowler-Nicolosi run for 4 yds to the CSU 33Similar
Q2 10:09
2ND & 6
OWN 33
0
81.3%
Avery Morrow run for no gain to the CSU 33Similar
Q2 9:28
3RD & 6
OWN 33
+23
81.2%
Brayden Fowler-Nicolosi pass complete to Louis Brown for 23 yds to the COLO 44 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 8:51
1ST & 10
OPP 44
-3
79.4%
Brayden Fowler-Nicolosi sacked by Jordan Domineck for a loss of 3 yards to the COLO 47Similar
Q2 8:12
2ND & 13
OPP 47
+8
79.7%
Brayden Fowler-Nicolosi pass complete to Tory Horton for 8 yds to the COLO 39Similar
Q2 7:40
3RD & 5
OPP 39
+6
78.6%
Brayden Fowler-Nicolosi pass complete to Louis Brown for 6 yds to the COLO 33 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 7:06
1ST & 10
OPP 33
+17
77.4%
Brayden Fowler-Nicolosi pass complete to Justus Ross-Simmons for 17 yds to the COLO 16 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 6:40
1ST & 10
OPP 16
+6
76.9%
Brayden Fowler-Nicolosi pass complete to Tory Horton for 6 yds to the COLO 10Similar
Q2 6:08
2ND & 4
OPP 10
+3
76.5%
Avery Morrow run for 3 yds to the COLO 7Similar
Q2 5:42
3RD & 1
OPP 7
+3
76.9%
Avery Morrow run for 3 yds to the COLO 4 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 5:04
1ST & 0
OPP 4
-15
75.1%
Fowler-Nicolosi, Brayden pass complete to Holker, Dallin for 4 yards to the COLORADO0, PENALTY COLORADOST illegal block 15 yards to the COLORADO19, NO PLAY.Similar
Q2 4:57
1ST & 0
OPP 19
+4
75.4%
Brayden Fowler-Nicolosi pass complete to Tory Horton for 4 yds to the COLO 15Similar
Q2 4:08
2ND & GOAL
OPP 15
+15
66.6%
Brayden Fowler-Nicolosi pass complete to Louis Brown for 15 yds for a TD (Jordan Noyes KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
COLODrive 12PUNT
5 plays · -5 yds · 2:0371% → 67%
Q2 4:08
1ST & 10
OWN 25
0
71.0%
Shedeur Sanders pass complete to Xavier Weaver for no gain to the COLO 25Similar
Q2 3:29
2ND & 10
OWN 25
-10
70.2%
Shedeur Sanders sacked by Mohamed Kamara for a loss of 10 yards to the COLO 15Similar
Q2 2:51
3RD & 20
OWN 15
+5
68.5%
Shedeur Sanders pass complete to Jimmy Horn Jr. for 5 yds to the COLO 20Similar
Q2 2:05
4TH & 15
OWN 20
0
67.4%
Mark Vassett punt for 50 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the CSU 30Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CSUDrive 13PUNT
10 plays · -2 yds · 1:4735% → 34%
Q2 2:05
1ST & 10
OWN 30
+2
65.2%
Kobe Johnson run for 2 yds to the CSU 32Similar
Q2 1:46
2ND & 8
OWN 32
+6
64.5%
Brayden Fowler-Nicolosi pass complete to Tory Horton for 6 yds to the CSU 38Similar
Q2 1:20
3RD & 2
OWN 38
+8
63.3%
Brayden Fowler-Nicolosi pass complete to Dallin Holker for 8 yds to the CSU 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 1:00
1ST & 10
OWN 46
-10
62.5%
Fowler-Nicolosi, Brayden pass complete to Ross-Simmons, Justus for 50 yards to the COLORADO4, PENALTY COLORADOST holding 10 yards to the COLORADOST36, NO PLAY.Similar
Q2 0:50
1ST & 20
OWN 36
0
64.6%
Brayden Fowler-Nicolosi pass incomplete to Dallin HolkerSimilar
Q2 0:44
2ND & 20
OWN 36
-8
64.8%
Kobe Johnson run for 7 yds to the CSU 43 Colorado State Penalty, Illegal Block (-15 Yards) to the CSU 28Similar
Q2 0:37
2ND & 28
OWN 28
0
65.1%
Brayden Fowler-Nicolosi pass incomplete to Jamari PersonSimilar
Q2 0:32
3RD & 28
OWN 28
0
65.5%
Kobe Johnson run for no gain to the CSU 28Similar
Q2 0:18
4TH & 28
OWN 28
0
65.6%
Paddy Turner punt for 38 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the COLO 34Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
COLODrive 14END OF HALF
1 play · -9 yds · 0:0066% → 66%
Q2 0:18
1ST & 10
OWN 34
-9
66.0%
Shedeur Sanders sacked by Mohamed Kamara for a loss of 9 yards to the COLO 25Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
COLODrive 15PUNT
5 plays · -1 yds · 1:4565% → 61%
Q3 14:54
1ST & 10
OWN 24
+2
65.3%
Dylan Edwards run for 2 yds to the COLO 26Similar
Q3 14:37
2ND & 8
OWN 26
+1
65.2%
Shedeur Sanders pass complete to Tar'Varish Dawson for 1 yd to the COLO 27Similar
Q3 14:02
3RD & 7
OWN 27
-4
63.2%
Shedeur Sanders sacked by Tony Pierce Jr. for a loss of 4 yards to the COLO 23Similar
Q3 13:09
4TH & 11
OWN 23
0
61.1%
Mark Vassett punt for 41 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the CSU 36Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CSUDrive 16FUMBLE
6 plays · 53 yds · 2:2140% → 46%
Q3 13:09
1ST & 10
OWN 36
+6
59.9%
Avery Morrow run for 6 yds to the CSU 42Similar
Q3 12:37
2ND & 4
OWN 42
+6
58.3%
Avery Morrow run for 6 yds to the CSU 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 12:14
1ST & 10
OWN 48
+19
58.0%
Brayden Fowler-Nicolosi pass complete to Dallin Holker for 19 yds to the COLO 33 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 11:40
1ST & 10
OPP 33
+14
55.9%
Brayden Fowler-Nicolosi pass complete to Tory Horton for 14 yds to the COLO 19 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 11:23
1ST & 10
OPP 19
+5
55.3%
Avery Morrow run for 5 yds to the COLO 14Similar
Q3 10:48
2ND & 5
OPP 14
+3
54.5%
Brayden Fowler-Nicolosi pass complete to Dallin Holker for 3 yds Dallin Holker fumbled, forced by Shilo Sanders, recovered by COLO Derrick McLendonSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
COLODrive 17PUNT
5 plays · 24 yds · 1:2260% → 57%
Q3 10:48
1ST & 10
OWN 11
+20
59.7%
Shedeur Sanders pass complete to Tar'Varish Dawson for 20 yds to the COLO 31 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 10:24
1ST & 10
OWN 31
+1
60.1%
Sy'veon Wilkerson run for 1 yd to the COLO 32Similar
Q3 10:02
2ND & 9
OWN 32
+3
59.5%
Shedeur Sanders pass complete to Jimmy Horn Jr. for 3 yds to the COLO 35Similar
Q3 9:45
3RD & 6
OWN 35
0
58.4%
Shedeur Sanders pass incomplete to Jimmy Horn Jr.Similar
Q3 9:26
4TH & 6
OWN 35
+27
57.2%
Mark Vassett punt for 50 yds , Tory Horton returns for 27 yds to the CSU 38 Colorado Penalty, Horse Collar Tackle (-15 Yards) to the COLO 43Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CSUDrive 18MISSED FG
4 plays · 8 yds · 1:4647% → 48%
Q3 9:26
1ST & 10
OPP 43
+5
53.4%
Kobe Johnson run for 5 yds to the COLO 38Similar
Q3 8:55
2ND & 5
OPP 38
+2
52.5%
Kobe Johnson run for 2 yds to the COLO 36Similar
Q3 8:25
3RD & 3
OPP 36
+1
52.2%
Kobe Johnson run for 1 yd to the COLO 35Similar
Q3 7:40
4TH & 2
OPP 35
+52
52.2%
Jordan Noyes 52 yd FG BLOCKED blocked by Leonard Payne Jr.Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
COLODrive 19MISSED FG
9 plays · 43 yds · 3:1657% → 54%
Q3 7:40
1ST & 10
OWN 36
+6
57.3%
Sy'veon Wilkerson run for 6 yds to the COLO 42Similar
Q3 7:24
2ND & 4
OWN 42
+4
59.4%
Shedeur Sanders pass complete to Michael Harrison for 4 yds to the COLO 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 7:04
1ST & 10
OWN 46
+11
58.6%
Shedeur Sanders pass complete to Sy'veon Wilkerson for 11 yds to the CSU 43 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 6:41
1ST & 10
OPP 43
+19
59.6%
Shedeur Sanders pass complete to Michael Harrison for 19 yds to the CSU 24 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 6:19
1ST & 10
OPP 24
+1
60.9%
Shedeur Sanders pass complete to Jimmy Horn Jr. for 1 yd to the CSU 23Similar
Q3 5:49
2ND & 9
OPP 23
-6
60.3%
Colorado Penalty, False Start (-6 Yards) to the CSU 29Similar
Q3 5:39
2ND & 15
OPP 29
+5
58.1%
Shedeur Sanders pass complete to Michael Harrison for 5 yds to the CSU 24Similar
Q3 5:15
3RD & 10
OPP 24
+3
57.5%
Shedeur Sanders pass complete to Xavier Weaver for 3 yds to the CSU 21Similar
Q3 4:24
4TH & 6
OPP 21
+39
53.9%
Jace Feely 39 yd FG MISSEDSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CSUDrive 20INT
5 plays · 4 yds · 1:2952% → 54%
Q3 4:24
1ST & 10
OWN 21
-11
48.3%
Fowler-Nicolosi, Brayden pass incomplete to Horton, Tory, PENALTY COLORADOST illegal block 11 yards to the COLORADOST10, NO PLAY.Similar
Q3 4:19
1ST & 21
OWN 10
-5
48.4%
Colorado State Penalty, False Start (-5 Yards) to the CSU 5Similar
Q3 4:19
1ST & 26
OWN 5
+9
48.9%
Avery Morrow run for 9 yds to the CSU 14Similar
Q3 3:38
2ND & 17
OWN 14
+11
47.2%
Brayden Fowler-Nicolosi pass complete to Louis Brown for 11 yds to the CSU 25Similar
Q3 2:55
3RD & 6
OWN 25
0
46.2%
Brayden Fowler-Nicolosi pass intercepted Cam'Ron Silmon-Craig return for no gain to the CSU 45Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
COLODrive 21FG
11 plays · 43 yds · 3:3155% → 57%
Q3 2:55
1ST & 10
OPP 45
+5
55.2%
Shedeur Sanders pass complete to Jimmy Horn Jr. for 5 yds to the CSU 40Similar
Q3 2:32
2ND & 5
OPP 40
+10
54.8%
Shedeur Sanders pass complete to Tar'Varish Dawson for 10 yds to the CSU 30 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 2:11
1ST & 10
OPP 30
0
56.2%
Shedeur Sanders pass incomplete to Tar'Varish DawsonSimilar
Q3 2:06
2ND & 10
OPP 30
-1
56.0%
Dylan Edwards run for a loss of 1 yard to the CSU 31Similar
Q3 1:34
3RD & 11
OPP 31
+11
51.8%
Shedeur Sanders pass complete to Tar'Varish Dawson for 11 yds to the CSU 20 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 1:14
1ST & 10
OPP 20
+16
55.2%
Shedeur Sanders pass complete to Michael Harrison for 16 yds to the CSU 4 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 1:00
1ST & GOAL
OPP 4
+3
54.9%
Dylan Edwards run for 3 yds to the CSU 1Similar
Q3 0:30
2ND & GOAL
OPP 1
-1
51.8%
Sy'veon Wilkerson run for a loss of 1 yard to the CSU 2Similar
Q4 15:00
3RD & GOAL
OPP 2
0
49.0%
Sy'veon Wilkerson run for no gain to the CSU 2Similar
Q4 14:24
4TH & GOAL
OPP 2
+20
57.1%
Alejandro Mata 20 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CSUDrive 22TD
8 plays · 76 yds · 2:5651% → 81%
Q4 14:18
1ST & 10
OWN 24
+6
48.7%
Brayden Fowler-Nicolosi pass complete to Justus Ross-Simmons for 6 yds to the CSU 30Similar
Q4 13:53
2ND & 4
OWN 30
+3
46.5%
Kobe Johnson run for 3 yds to the CSU 33Similar
Q4 13:15
3RD & 1
OWN 33
+13
46.1%
Kobe Johnson run for 13 yds to the CSU 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 12:39
1ST & 10
OWN 46
+16
43.5%
Brayden Fowler-Nicolosi pass complete to Tory Horton for 16 yds to the COLO 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 12:14
1ST & 10
OPP 38
+3
41.4%
Kobe Johnson run for 3 yds to the COLO 35Similar
Q4 11:36
2ND & 7
OPP 35
0
39.3%
Brayden Fowler-Nicolosi pass incomplete to Justus Ross-SimmonsSimilar
Q4 11:22
3RD & 7
OPP 35
+35
18.7%
Brayden Fowler-Nicolosi pass complete to Dallin Holker for 35 yds for a TD (Jordan Noyes KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
COLODrive 23FG
12 plays · 52 yds · 3:4925% → 23%
Q4 11:22
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+8
25.1%
Shedeur Sanders run for 8 yds to the COLO 33Similar
Q4 10:59
2ND & 2
OWN 33
+7
26.1%
Shedeur Sanders run for 7 yds to the COLO 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 10:35
1ST & 10
OWN 40
0
22.8%
Shedeur Sanders pass incomplete to Xavier WeaverSimilar
Q4 10:31
2ND & 10
OWN 40
+8
21.9%
Shedeur Sanders pass complete to Xavier Weaver for 8 yds to the COLO 48Similar
Q4 10:07
3RD & 2
OWN 48
+19
22.6%
Dylan Edwards run for 19 yds to the CSU 33 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 9:47
1ST & 10
OPP 33
+9
26.3%
Shedeur Sanders run for 9 yds to the CSU 24Similar
Q4 9:20
2ND & 1
OPP 24
+9
26.1%
Shedeur Sanders pass complete to Xavier Weaver for 9 yds to the CSU 15 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 8:53
1ST & 10
OPP 15
0
25.5%
Shedeur Sanders pass incomplete to Xavier WeaverSimilar
Q4 8:47
2ND & 10
OPP 15
-14
25.4%
Shedeur Sanders sacked by Mukendi Wa-Kalonji for a loss of 14 yards to the CSU 29Similar
Q4 8:07
3RD & 24
OPP 29
+6
20.7%
Shedeur Sanders pass complete to Dylan Edwards for 6 yds to the CSU 23Similar
Q4 7:33
4TH & 18
OPP 23
+41
23.2%
Alejandro Mata 41 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CSUDrive 24PUNT
12 plays · 30 yds · 5:2781% → 94%
Q4 7:33
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+2
18.9%
Avery Morrow run for 2 yds to the CSU 27Similar
Q4 7:02
2ND & 8
OWN 27
+7
15.8%
Avery Morrow run for 7 yds to the CSU 34Similar
Q4 6:23
3RD & 1
OWN 34
+2
14.6%
Avery Morrow run for 2 yds to the CSU 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 5:43
1ST & 10
OWN 36
+8
12.8%
Brayden Fowler-Nicolosi pass complete to Louis Brown for 8 yds to the CSU 44Similar
Q4 5:07
2ND & 2
OWN 44
-3
11.5%
Avery Morrow run for a loss of 3 yards to the CSU 41Similar
Q4 4:26
3RD & 5
OWN 41
+6
11.0%
Brayden Fowler-Nicolosi pass complete to Tory Horton for 6 yds to the CSU 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 3:44
1ST & 10
OWN 47
+2
9.4%
Avery Morrow run for 2 yds to the CSU 49Similar
Q4 3:04
2ND & 8
OWN 49
-2
7.5%
Avery Morrow run for a loss of 2 yards to the CSU 47Similar
Q4 3:01
3RD & 10
OWN 47
+8
7.6%
Brayden Fowler-Nicolosi pass complete to Louis Brown for 8 yds to the COLO 45Similar
Q4 2:06
4TH & 2
OPP 45
0
6.0%
Paddy Turner punt for 43 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the COLO 2Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
COLODrive 25TD
9 plays · 98 yds · 1:309% → 61%
Q4 2:06
1ST & 10
OWN 2
+2
8.5%
Dylan Edwards run for 2 yds to the COLO 4Similar
Q4 1:47
2ND & 8
OWN 4
+11
8.1%
Shedeur Sanders pass complete to Michael Harrison for 11 yds to the COLO 15 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 1:36
1ST & 10
OWN 15
+18
8.4%
Shedeur Sanders pass complete to Tar'Varish Dawson for 18 yds to the COLO 33 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 1:28
1ST & 10
OWN 33
0
9.0%
Shedeur Sanders pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 1:21
2ND & 10
OWN 33
+26
8.5%
Shedeur Sanders pass complete to Xavier Weaver for 26 yds to the CSU 41 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 1:13
1ST & 10
OPP 41
-5
11.0%
Colorado Penalty, False Start (-5 Yards) to the CSU 46Similar
Q4 1:08
1ST & 15
OPP 46
+6
9.6%
Shedeur Sanders pass complete to Dylan Edwards for 6 yds to the CSU 40Similar
Q4 0:50
2ND & 9
OPP 40
-5
9.9%
Sanders, Shedeur pass complete to Weaver, Xavier for 9 yards to the COLORADOST31, PENALTY COLORADO illegal motion 5 yards to the COLORADOST45, NO PLAY.Similar
Q4 0:36
2ND & 14
OPP 45
+45
61.2%
Shedeur Sanders pass complete to Jimmy Horn Jr. for 45 yds for a TD (Shedeur Sanders pass to Michael Harrison for Two-Point Conversion)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CSUDrive 26PUNT
6 plays · 3 yds · 0:2950% → 44%
Q4 0:36
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+4
50.3%
Brayden Fowler-Nicolosi pass complete to Louis Brown for 4 yds to the CSU 29Similar
Q4 0:32
2ND & 6
OWN 29
0
48.9%
Brayden Fowler-Nicolosi pass incomplete to Dallin HolkerSimilar
Q4 0:25
3RD & 6
OWN 29
-1
53.2%
Brayden Fowler-Nicolosi pass complete to Louis Brown for a loss of 1 yard to the CSU 28Similar
Q4 0:07
4TH & 7
OWN 28
0
55.9%
Paddy Turner punt for 43 yds, downed at the COLO 29Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
COLODrive 27END OF GAME
1 play · 16 yds · 0:0060% → 60%
Q4 0:07
1ST & 10
OWN 29
+16
60.0%
Dylan Edwards run for 16 yds to the COLO 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
COLODrive 28TD
5 plays · 25 yds · 0:0066% → 83%
OT 0:00
1ST & 10
OPP 25
0
65.6%
Shedeur Sanders pass incomplete to Xavier WeaverSimilar
OT 0:00
2ND & 10
OPP 25
+13
65.4%
Shedeur Sanders run for 1 yd to the CSU 24 for a 1ST down Colorado State Penalty, Face Mask (12 yards) (12 Yards) to the CSU 12 for a 1ST downSimilar
OT 0:00
1ST & 10
OPP 12
+6
65.6%
Sanders, Shedeur pass incomplete, PENALTY COLORADOST unsportsmanlike conduct (Kamara, Mohamed) 6 yards to the COLORADOST6, NO PLAY, 1ST DOWN COLORADO.Similar
OT 0:00
1ST & GOAL
OPP 6
+3
65.6%
Shedeur Sanders pass complete to Xavier Weaver for 3 yds to the CSU 3Similar
OT 0:00
2ND & GOAL
OPP 3
+3
82.6%
Shedeur Sanders pass complete to Michael Harrison for 3 yds for a TD (Alejandro Mata KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CSUDrive 29TD
4 plays · 25 yds · 0:0020% → 59%
OT 0:00
1ST & 10
OPP 25
+9
80.1%
Brayden Fowler-Nicolosi pass complete to Tory Horton for 9 yds to the COLO 16Similar
OT 0:00
2ND & 1
OPP 16
+1
79.0%
Avery Morrow run for 1 yd to the COLO 15 for a 1ST downSimilar
OT 0:00
1ST & 10
OPP 15
+7
80.1%
Brayden Fowler-Nicolosi pass complete to Tory Horton for 7 yds to the COLO 8Similar
OT 0:00
2ND & 3
OPP 8
+8
41.1%
Brayden Fowler-Nicolosi pass complete to Tory Horton for 8 yds for a TD (Jordan Noyes KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
COLODrive 30TD
4 plays · 25 yds · 0:0066% → 89%
OT2 0:00
1ST & 10
OPP 25
-5
65.6%
Dylan Edwards run for a loss of 5 yards to the CSU 30Similar
OT2 0:00
2ND & 15
OPP 30
+22
62.3%
Shedeur Sanders pass complete to Xavier Weaver for 22 yds to the CSU 8 for a 1ST downSimilar
OT2 0:00
1ST & 0
OPP 8
-10
68.8%
Edwards, Dylan rush for 4 yards to the COLORADOST4, PENALTY COLORADO holding 10 yards to the COLORADOST18, NO PLAY.Similar
OT2 0:00
1ST & 0
OPP 18
+18
89.2%
Shedeur Sanders pass complete to Michael Harrison for 18 yds for a TD (Shedeur Sanders pass to Xavier Weaver for Two-Point Conversion)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CSUDrive 31Uncategorized
8 plays · 7 yds · 0:0013% → 8%
OT2 0:00
1ST & 10
OPP 25
+8
87.3%
Brayden Fowler-Nicolosi pass complete to Tory Horton for 8 yds to the COLO 17Similar
OT2 0:00
2ND & 2
OPP 17
-1
86.5%
Avery Morrow run for a loss of 1 yard to the COLO 18Similar
OT2 0:00
3RD & 3
OPP 18
+12
90.7%
Brayden Fowler-Nicolosi pass complete to Tory Horton for 12 yds to the COLO 6 for a 1ST downSimilar
OT2 0:00
1ST & GOAL
OPP 6
+2
86.5%
Avery Morrow run for 2 yds to the COLO 4Similar
OT2 0:00
2ND & GOAL
OPP 4
-14
86.5%
Brayden Fowler-Nicolosi run for no gain to the COLO 4 Colorado State Penalty, Illegal Block (-14 Yards) to the COLO 18Similar
OT2 0:00
2ND & 0
OPP 18
0
84.3%
Brayden Fowler-Nicolosi pass incompleteSimilar
OT2 0:00
3RD & 0
OPP 18
0
87.6%
Brayden Fowler-Nicolosi pass incomplete to Justus Ross-SimmonsSimilar
OT2 0:00
4TH & 0
OPP 18
0
92.5%
Brayden Fowler-Nicolosi pass intercepted, touchback. Trevor Woods return for no gainSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
TD · Q4 0:36
Shedeur Sanders pass complete to Jimmy Horn Jr. for 45 yds for a TD (Shedeur Sanders pass to Michael Harrison for Two-Point Conversion)
+51.3
TD · OT 0:00
Brayden Fowler-Nicolosi pass complete to Tory Horton for 8 yds for a TD (Jordan Noyes KICK)
-39
TD · Q4 11:22
Brayden Fowler-Nicolosi pass complete to Dallin Holker for 35 yds for a TD (Jordan Noyes KICK)
-20.6
YardLine · model v10Model estimate - not betting advice · Data provided by CollegeFootballData.com