Try the model
STAN

Stanford 10 at USC 56

USC
2023 · Week 2 · Sep 9, 2023 · Los Angeles Memorial Coliseum
Speed4x
View as
Download image
Win probability · USC
modelUSC aheadSTAN aheadconfidence bandkey playUSC scoreSTAN score
0%25%50%75%100%Q1Q2Q3Q4TDTDTDTDTDTDFGTDTDTDTDEnd of GameTD+1.3USC 98.7%Zachariah Branch 75 Yd Punt Return(Denis Lynch Kick)AWAY 0 - HOME 28 · Q2 13:43
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q2 13:43 · Zachariah Branch 75 Yd Punt Return (Denis Lynch Kick)
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Pregame priorHome team on offenseScore differentialBlowout marginScore diff ÷ offense timeoutsGarbage-time factor
+47.0+23.50−23.5−47.0Q1Q2Q3Q4Play 45Pregame prior+40.2Home team on offense+15.3Score differential+13.1Blowout margin+4.3Score diff ÷ offense timeouts+1.1Garbage-time factor+3.6
This game in five plays
  1. TD · Q1 0:07: Austin Jones run for 1 yd for a TD (Denis Lynch KICK) — USC win probability +0.9 pts (now 97%) (top driver: USC has the ball).
  2. TD · Q2 13:43: Zachariah Branch 75 Yd Punt Return (Denis Lynch Kick) — USC win probability +1.3 pts (now 99%) (top driver: STAN has the ball).
  3. TD · Q2 10:42: Dorian Singer 19 Yd pass from Caleb Williams (Denis Lynch Kick) — STAN win probability +0.9 pts (now 2%) (top driver: USC has the ball).
  4. TD · Q2 6:57: Caleb Williams pass complete to Tahj Washington for 19 yds to the STAN 36 for a 1ST down — USC win probability +1.3 pts (now 99%) (top driver: USC has the ball).
  5. TD · Q2 6:46: Brenden Rice 75 Yd pass from Caleb Williams (Denis Lynch Kick) — USC win probability +0.5 pts (now 99%) (top driver: USC has the ball).
Was that the right call?

Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works

Fourth downs
USC made the numbers' call on 1 of 5STAN made the numbers' call on 8 of 9
  1. Q1 7:55STAN 4th & 2 at STAN 33, down 14
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 4.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    4.7%−<0.1
    57% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    4.7%
    average punt
  2. Q1 6:42USC 4th & 3 at USC 40, up 14
    Close callPunted · 95.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    95.5%
    52% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    95.4%−0.1
    average punt
  3. Q1 5:15STAN 4th & 9 at STAN 27, down 14
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 4.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    4.7%−0.2
    30% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    4.9%
    average punt
  4. Q2 13:43STAN 4th & 15 at STAN 25, down 21
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 3.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    3.1%−0.3
    16% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    3.4%
    average punt
  5. Q2 6:57STAN 4th & 15 at USC 20, down 35
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 1.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    1.4%−0.1
    16% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    1.5%
    75% to make
    Punt
    1.1%−0.4
    average punt
  6. Q2 3:42STAN 4th & 2 at STAN 47, down 39
    Close callPunted · 0.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    0.7%
    57% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    0.6%−0.1
    average punt
  7. Q3 13:11STAN 4th & 3 at STAN 32, down 46
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 0.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    0.4%−<0.1
    52% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    0.4%
    average punt
  8. Q3 11:52USC 4th & 3 at USC 36, up 46
    Close callPunted · 99.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    99.7%
    52% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    99.7%−<0.1
    average punt
  9. Q3 7:01STAN 4th & 4 at USC 4, down 46
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 0.3% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    0.3%
    40% to convert
    Field goal
    0.2%−<0.1
    93% to make
    Punt
    -0.2%−0.5
    average punt
  10. Q3 3:34USC 4th & 4 at USC 47, up 46
    Close callPunted · 99.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    99.9%
    48% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    99.8%−<0.1
    average punt
  11. Q3 1:35STAN 4th & 6 at STAN 24, down 46
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 0.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    0.1%−0.1
    38% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    0.1%
    average punt
  12. Q4 14:16USC 4th & 2 at USC 45, up 46
    Close callPunted · 99.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    99.9%
    57% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    99.8%−0.1
    average punt
  13. Q4 11:10STAN 4th & 17 at STAN 48, down 46
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 0.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    -0.0%−0.1
    14% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    0.1%
    average punt
  14. Q4 8:54USC 4th & 8 at USC 32, up 46
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 99.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    99.9%−0.1
    33% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    100.0%
    average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
USC made the numbers' call on 8 of 8STAN made the numbers' call on 1 of 1
  1. Q1 11:59USC Touchdown, up 6 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    95.4%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    95.4%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  2. Q1 9:05USC Touchdown, up 13 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    95.4%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    95.4%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  3. Q1 0:07USC Touchdown, up 20 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    96.9%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    96.9%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  4. Q2 13:43USC Touchdown, up 27 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    98.5%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    98.5%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  5. Q2 10:42USC Touchdown, up 34 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    99.0%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    98.9%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  6. Q2 6:46USC Touchdown, up 38 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    99.3%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    99.3%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  7. Q2 0:10USC Touchdown, up 45 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    99.6%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    99.6%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  8. Q4 3:35STAN Touchdown, down 40 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    0.1%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    0.1%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  9. Q4 0:58USC Touchdown, up 45 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    100.0%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    100.0%−<0.1
    45% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chart
USCDrive 1TD
8 plays · 75 yds · 3:0197% → 97%
Q1 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+4
97.0%
Austin Jones run for 4 yds to the USC 29Similar
Q1 14:39
2ND & 6
OWN 29
+8
96.9%
Caleb Williams pass complete to Zachariah Branch for 8 yds to the USC 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 14:20
1ST & 10
OWN 37
+15
96.9%
Caleb Williams pass complete to Zachariah Branch for 15 yds to the STAN 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 13:43
1ST & 10
OPP 48
+2
96.8%
Austin Jones run for 2 yds to the STAN 46Similar
Q1 13:09
2ND & 8
OPP 46
+11
96.7%
Caleb Williams pass complete to Austin Jones for 11 yds to the STAN 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 12:49
1ST & 10
OPP 35
+8
96.7%
Caleb Williams pass complete to Lake McRee for 8 yds to the STAN 27Similar
Q1 12:30
2ND & 2
OPP 27
+6
96.6%
Austin Jones run for 6 yds to the STAN 21 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 11:59
1ST & 10
OPP 21
+21
96.7%
Caleb Williams run for 21 yds for a TD (Denis Lynch KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
STANDrive 2INT
3 plays · 16 yds · 1:323% → 4%
Q1 11:59
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+13
96.6%
Ashton Daniels pass complete to Bryce Farrell for 13 yds to the STAN 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 11:20
1ST & 10
OWN 38
+3
96.5%
E.J. Smith run for 3 yds to the STAN 41Similar
Q1 10:27
2ND & 7
OWN 41
+15
96.4%
USC Penalty, Unsportsmanlike Conduct (Raesjon Davis) to the STAN 19 for a 1ST downSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USCDrive 3TD
4 plays · 19 yds · 1:2297% → 97%
Q1 10:27
1ST & 10
OPP 19
+9
96.5%
MarShawn Lloyd run for 9 yds to the STAN 10Similar
Q1 10:27
1ST & 10
OPP 19
+9
96.5%
MarShawn Lloyd run for 9 yds to the STAN 10Similar
Q1 9:53
2ND & 1
OPP 10
+5
96.5%
Caleb Williams pass complete to Zachariah Branch for 5 yds to the STAN 5 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 9:05
1ST & GOAL
OPP 5
+5
96.7%
MarShawn Lloyd run for 5 yds for a TD (Denis Lynch KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
STANDrive 4PUNT
4 plays · 8 yds · 1:103% → 4%
Q1 9:05
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+2
96.6%
Casey Filkins run for 2 yds to the STAN 27Similar
Q1 8:33
2ND & 8
OWN 27
0
96.5%
Ashton Daniels pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 8:30
3RD & 8
OWN 27
+6
96.5%
Ashton Daniels pass complete to Benjamin Yurosek for 6 yds to the STAN 33Similar
Q1 7:55
4TH & 2
OWN 33
0
96.5%
Connor Weselman punt for 39 yds , returns for no gain to the USC 33Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USCDrive 5PUNT
4 plays · 7 yds · 1:0197% → 97%
Q1 7:43
1ST & 10
OWN 33
+2
96.6%
MarShawn Lloyd run for 2 yds to the USC 35Similar
Q1 7:27
2ND & 8
OWN 35
+5
96.6%
Caleb Williams pass complete to Mario Williams for 5 yds to the USC 40Similar
Q1 6:50
3RD & 3
OWN 40
0
96.6%
Caleb Williams pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 6:42
4TH & 3
OWN 40
0
96.5%
Eddie Czaplicki punt for 45 yds, fair catch by Casey Filkins at the STAN 15Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
STANDrive 6PUNT
6 plays · 12 yds · 1:214% → 4%
Q1 6:36
1ST & 10
OWN 15
+1
96.4%
Ashton Daniels run for 1 yd to the STAN 16Similar
Q1 6:03
2ND & 9
OWN 16
+10
96.4%
Ashton Daniels run for 10 yds to the STAN 26 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 5:38
1ST & 10
OWN 26
+1
96.3%
E.J. Smith run for 1 yd to the STAN 27Similar
Q1 5:25
2ND & 9
OWN 27
0
96.3%
Ashton Daniels pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 5:18
3RD & 9
OWN 27
0
96.4%
Ashton Daniels pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 5:15
4TH & 9
OWN 27
0
96.4%
Connor Weselman punt for 59 yds , Zachariah Branch returns for no gain to the USC 7Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USCDrive 7TD
12 plays · 93 yds · 4:5497% → 97%
Q1 5:01
1ST & 10
OWN 7
0
96.5%
Caleb Williams pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 4:56
2ND & 10
OWN 7
+17
96.5%
Austin Jones run for 17 yds to the USC 24 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 4:31
1ST & 10
OWN 24
+11
96.5%
Caleb Williams pass complete to Tahj Washington for 11 yds to the USC 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 4:11
1ST & 10
OWN 35
+28
96.4%
Caleb Williams pass complete to Tahj Washington for 28 yds to the STAN 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 3:42
1ST & 10
OPP 37
+8
96.5%
Caleb Williams pass complete to Lake McRee for 8 yds to the STAN 29Similar
Q1 3:17
2ND & 2
OPP 29
+19
96.5%
MarShawn Lloyd run for 29 yds for a 1ST down USC Penalty, Offensive Holding (Michael Jackson III) to the STAN 25 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 3:10
1ST & 10
OPP 25
+4
96.5%
MarShawn Lloyd run for 4 yds to the STAN 21Similar
Q1 2:34
2ND & 6
OPP 21
+3
96.4%
Caleb Williams pass complete to Austin Jones for 3 yds to the STAN 18Similar
Q1 2:12
3RD & 3
OPP 18
+12
96.4%
Caleb Williams pass complete to Lake McRee for 12 yds to the STAN 6 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 1:34
1ST & GOAL
OPP 6
+3
96.4%
Austin Jones run for 3 yds to the STAN 3Similar
Q1 1:34
2ND & GOAL
OPP 3
+2
96.4%
Zachariah Branch run for 2 yds to the STAN 1Similar
Q1 0:07
3RD & GOAL
OPP 1
+1
97.3%
Austin Jones run for 1 yd for a TD (Denis Lynch KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
STANDrive 8PUNT TD
4 plays · -5 yds · 1:173% → 1%
Q2 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 30
0
97.3%
Ashton Daniels pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 14:57
2ND & 10
OWN 30
-2
97.4%
Ashton Daniels sacked for a loss of 2 yards to the STAN 28Similar
Q2 14:57
3RD & 12
OWN 28
-3
97.4%
Casey Filkins run for a loss of 3 yards to the STAN 25Similar
Q2 13:43
4TH & 15
OWN 25
+75
98.7%
Zachariah Branch 75 Yd Punt Return (Denis Lynch Kick)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
STANDrive 9FUMBLE
4 plays · 32 yds · 0:581% → 1%
Q2 13:43
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+2
98.6%
Justin Lamson run for 2 yds to the STAN 27Similar
Q2 13:09
2ND & 8
OWN 27
0
98.6%
Justin Lamson pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 13:04
3RD & 8
OWN 27
+31
98.7%
Justin Lamson pass complete to John Humphreys for 31 yds to the USC 42 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 12:45
1ST & 10
OPP 42
-1
98.6%
Justin Lamson sacked for a loss of 1 yard to the USC 45Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USCDrive 10TD
5 plays · 55 yds · 5:4199% → 99%
Q2 12:38
1ST & 10
OWN 45
0
98.7%
TEAM pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 11:11
1ST & 10
OPP 21
+2
98.7%
Caleb Williams pass complete to Zachariah Branch for 2 yds to the STAN 19Similar
Q2 10:42
2ND & 8
OPP 19
+19
97.8%
Dorian Singer 19 Yd pass from Caleb Williams (Denis Lynch Kick)Similar
Q2 10:42
1ST & 10
OPP 36
+15
97.9%
Caleb Williams pass complete to Tahj Washington for 15 yds to the STAN 21 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 6:57
1ST & 10
OWN 45
+19
99.1%
Caleb Williams pass complete to Tahj Washington for 19 yds to the STAN 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
STANDrive 11FG
11 plays · 55 yds · 3:451% → 1%
Q2 10:42
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+19
99.0%
E.J. Smith run for 19 yds to the STAN 44 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 10:04
1ST & 10
OWN 44
+3
99.0%
Benjamin Yurosek run for 3 yds to the STAN 47Similar
Q2 9:34
2ND & 7
OWN 47
+9
99.0%
Justin Lamson run for 9 yds to the USC 44 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 8:45
1ST & 10
OPP 44
0
99.0%
Justin Lamson pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 8:41
2ND & 10
OPP 44
+29
99.1%
E.J. Smith run for 29 yds to the USC 15 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 7:55
1ST & 10
OPP 15
+5
99.0%
Justin Lamson run for 5 yds to the USC 10Similar
Q2 7:11
2ND & 5
OPP 10
0
99.0%
Justin Lamson pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 7:06
3RD & 5
OPP 10
-5
99.1%
Stanford Penalty, False Start (-5 Yards) to the USC 15Similar
Q2 7:06
3RD & 10
OPP 15
0
99.1%
Justin Lamson pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 7:02
4TH & 10
OPP 15
-5
98.7%
Stanford Penalty, False Start (-5 Yards) to the USC 20Similar
Q2 6:57
4TH & 15
OPP 20
+38
98.7%
Joshua Karty 38 Yd Field Goal Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USCDrive 12TD
1 play · 75 yds · 0:0099% → 99%
Q2 6:46
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+75
99.2%
Brenden Rice 75 Yd pass from Caleb Williams (Denis Lynch Kick)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
STANDrive 13PUNT
7 plays · 22 yds · 3:041% → 1%
Q2 6:46
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+3
99.3%
Bryce Farrell run for 3 yds to the STAN 28Similar
Q2 6:08
2ND & 7
OWN 28
+6
99.4%
Benjamin Yurosek run for 6 yds to the STAN 34Similar
Q2 5:26
3RD & 1
OWN 34
+5
99.3%
USC Penalty, Delay Of Game (Bear Alexander) to the STAN 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 5:10
1ST & 10
OWN 39
+4
99.4%
Justin Lamson run for 4 yds to the STAN 43Similar
Q2 4:31
2ND & 6
OWN 43
0
99.4%
Justin Lamson pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 4:27
3RD & 6
OWN 43
+4
99.4%
Justin Lamson run for 4 yds to the STAN 47Similar
Q2 3:42
4TH & 2
OWN 47
0
99.4%
Connor Weselman punt for 53 yds for a touchbackSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USCDrive 14TD
8 plays · 80 yds · 3:2499% → 100%
Q2 3:34
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+22
99.4%
Caleb Williams pass complete to Dorian Singer for 22 yds to the USC 42 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 2:53
1ST & 10
OWN 42
+13
99.5%
MarShawn Lloyd run for 13 yds to the STAN 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 2:10
1ST & 10
OPP 45
+25
99.5%
MarShawn Lloyd run for 25 yds to the STAN 20 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 1:20
1ST & 10
OPP 20
+1
99.6%
MarShawn Lloyd run for 1 yd to the STAN 19Similar
Q2 0:34
2ND & 9
OPP 19
+4
99.6%
MarShawn Lloyd run for 4 yds to the STAN 15Similar
Q2 0:28
3RD & 5
OPP 15
+14
99.6%
Caleb Williams pass complete to Kyron Hudson for 14 yds to the STAN 1 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:10
1ST & GOAL
OPP 1
+1
99.6%
Lake McRee 1 Yd pass from Caleb Williams (Denis Lynch Kick)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
STANDrive 15END OF HALF
1 play · -2 yds · 0:000% → 0%
Q2 0:03
1ST & 10
OWN 14
-2
99.6%
E.J. Smith run for a loss of 2 yards to the STAN 12Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
STANDrive 16PUNT
5 plays · 7 yds · 1:490% → 0%
Q3 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+3
99.6%
Justin Lamson run for 3 yds to the STAN 28Similar
Q3 14:29
2ND & 7
OWN 28
+6
99.6%
Bryce Farrell run for 6 yds to the STAN 34Similar
Q3 13:47
3RD & 1
OWN 34
-2
99.6%
Justin Lamson run for a loss of 2 yards to the STAN 32Similar
Q3 13:11
4TH & 3
OWN 32
0
99.7%
Connor Weselman punt for 47 ydsSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USCDrive 17PUNT
4 plays · 7 yds · 1:08100% → 100%
Q3 13:00
1ST & 10
OWN 29
+4
99.7%
Quinten Joyner run for 4 yds to the USC 33Similar
Q3 12:33
2ND & 6
OWN 33
0
99.7%
Miller Moss pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 12:30
3RD & 6
OWN 33
+3
99.7%
Quinten Joyner run for 3 yds to the USC 36Similar
Q3 11:52
4TH & 3
OWN 36
0
99.7%
Eddie Czaplicki punt for 49 yds, fair catch by Casey Filkins at the STAN 15Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
STANDrive 18DOWNS
9 plays · 81 yds · 4:430% → 0%
Q3 11:44
1ST & 10
OWN 15
+59
99.7%
Casey Filkins run for 59 yds to the USC 26 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 11:03
1ST & 10
OPP 26
+6
99.7%
Casey Filkins run for 6 yds to the USC 20Similar
Q3 10:28
2ND & 4
OPP 20
-2
99.7%
Justin Lamson run for a loss of 2 yards to the USC 22Similar
Q3 9:55
3RD & 6
OPP 22
+7
99.8%
USC Penalty, Defensive Holding (7 Yards) to the USC 8 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 9:15
1ST & GOAL
OPP 7
+6
99.8%
Benjamin Yurosek run for 6 yds to the USC 1Similar
Q3 8:52
2ND & GOAL
OPP 1
-5
99.7%
Stanford Penalty, False Start (-5 Yards) to the USC 6Similar
Q3 8:28
2ND & GOAL
OPP 6
+1
99.8%
run for 1 yd to the USC 5Similar
Q3 7:40
3RD & GOAL
OPP 5
+1
99.8%
Justin Lamson run for 1 yd to the USC 4Similar
Q3 7:01
4TH & GOAL
OPP 4
0
99.8%
Justin Lamson pass incompleteSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USCDrive 19PUNT
8 plays · 43 yds · 3:23100% → 100%
Q3 6:57
1ST & 10
OWN 4
+12
99.8%
Miller Moss pass complete to Ja'Kobi Lane for 12 yds to the USC 16 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 6:14
1ST & 10
OWN 16
0
99.8%
Miller Moss pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 6:11
2ND & 10
OWN 16
+11
99.8%
Quinten Joyner run for 11 yds to the USC 27 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 5:39
1ST & 10
OWN 27
+14
99.8%
Miller Moss pass complete to Duce Robinson for 14 yds to the USC 41 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 5:06
1ST & 10
OWN 41
0
99.8%
Miller Moss pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 5:00
2ND & 10
OWN 41
+2
99.8%
Quinten Joyner run for 2 yds to the USC 43Similar
Q3 4:18
3RD & 8
OWN 43
+4
99.8%
Miller Moss pass complete to Michael Jackson III for 4 yds to the USC 47Similar
Q3 3:34
4TH & 4
OWN 47
0
99.8%
Eddie Czaplicki punt for 33 yds, fair catch by Casey Filkins at the STAN 20Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
STANDrive 20PUNT
4 plays · 4 yds · 1:540% → 0%
Q3 3:29
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+9
99.9%
Justin Lamson pass complete to E.J. Smith for 9 yds to the STAN 29Similar
Q3 2:49
2ND & 1
OWN 29
-1
99.9%
Casey Filkins run for a loss of 1 yard to the STAN 28Similar
Q3 2:11
3RD & 2
OWN 28
-4
99.9%
Benjamin Yurosek run for a loss of 4 yards to the STAN 24Similar
Q3 1:35
4TH & 6
OWN 24
0
99.9%
Aidan Flintoft punt for 50 yds , Michael Jackson III returns for no gain USC Penalty, Offensive Holding (Duce Robinson) to the USC 25Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USCDrive 21PUNT
5 plays · 20 yds · 2:02100% → 100%
Q3 1:18
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+12
99.8%
Miller Moss pass complete to Duce Robinson for 12 yds to the USC 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 0:53
1ST & 10
OWN 37
0
99.9%
Darwin Barlow run for no gain to the USC 37Similar
Q3 0:27
2ND & 10
OWN 37
-3
99.9%
Miller Moss pass complete to Mario Williams for a loss of 3 yards to the USC 34Similar
Q4 15:00
3RD & 13
OWN 34
+11
99.9%
Miller Moss pass complete to Duce Robinson for 11 yds to the USC 45Similar
Q4 14:16
4TH & 2
OWN 45
0
99.9%
Eddie Czaplicki punt for 37 yds, fair catch by Casey Filkins at the STAN 18Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
STANDrive 22PUNT
10 plays · 30 yds · 3:000% → 0%
Q4 14:10
1ST & 10
OWN 18
+11
99.9%
Justin Lamson pass complete to Elic Ayomanor for 11 yds to the STAN 29 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 13:29
1ST & 10
OWN 29
+15
99.9%
(13:29) LAMSON, Justin pass deep to the left incomplete intended for HUMPHREYS, John thrown to the USC37, clock 13:22. PENALTY USC Pass Interference on ROLAND-WALLACE, Christian enforced 15 yards to the STA44 and results in automatic 1ST DOWN [NHSG]. NO PLAY (replay the down).Similar
Q4 13:17
1ST & 10
OWN 44
0
99.9%
Justin Lamson pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 13:17
2ND & 10
OWN 44
+9
99.9%
Sedrick Irvin run for 9 yds to the USC 47Similar
Q4 12:36
3RD & 1
OPP 47
+2
99.9%
Justin Lamson run for 2 yds to the USC 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 11:58
1ST & 10
OPP 45
-7
99.9%
Justin Lamson run for a loss of 7 yards to the STAN 48 Justin Lamson fumbled, recovered by STAN Justin LamsonSimilar
Q4 11:27
1ST & 10
OPP 45
-7
99.9%
Justin Lamson run for a loss of 7 yards to the STAN 48 Justin Lamson fumbled, recovered by STAN Justin LamsonSimilar
Q4 11:15
2ND & 17
OWN 48
0
99.9%
Justin Lamson pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 11:15
3RD & 17
OWN 48
0
99.9%
Justin Lamson pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 11:10
4TH & 17
OWN 48
0
99.9%
Aidan Flintoft punt for 37 ydsSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USCDrive 23PUNT
5 plays · 17 yds · 2:09100% → 100%
Q4 11:03
1ST & 10
OWN 15
+15
99.9%
Miller Moss pass complete to Mario Williams for 15 yds to the USC 30 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 10:32
1ST & 10
OWN 30
+2
99.9%
Miller Moss pass complete to Mario Williams for 2 yds to the USC 32Similar
Q4 9:59
2ND & 8
OWN 32
+6
99.9%
Miller Moss pass complete to Josiah Zamora for 6 yds to the USC 38Similar
Q4 9:34
3RD & 2
OWN 38
-6
99.9%
Quinten Joyner run for a loss of 6 yards to the USC 32Similar
Q4 8:54
4TH & 8
OWN 32
0
99.9%
Eddie Czaplicki punt for 47 yds, fair catch by Casey Filkins at the STAN 21Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
STANDrive 24TD
12 plays · 79 yds · 5:060% → 0%
Q4 8:41
1ST & 10
OWN 21
+23
99.9%
Justin Lamson pass complete to Benjamin Yurosek for 23 yds to the STAN 44 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 8:12
1ST & 10
OWN 44
+19
99.9%
Justin Lamson pass complete to Benjamin Yurosek for 19 yds to the USC 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 7:38
1ST & 10
OPP 37
+11
99.9%
Justin Lamson pass complete to E.J. Smith for 11 yds to the USC 26 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 6:58
1ST & 10
OPP 26
0
99.9%
Justin Lamson pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 6:54
2ND & 10
OPP 26
+11
99.9%
Justin Lamson pass complete to John Humphreys for 11 yds to the USC 15 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 6:06
1ST & 10
OPP 15
+6
99.9%
Justin Lamson pass complete to Benjamin Yurosek for 6 yds to the USC 9Similar
Q4 5:20
2ND & 4
OPP 9
+8
100.0%
Benjamin Yurosek run for 8 yds to the USC 1 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 4:49
1ST & GOAL
OPP 1
-10
99.9%
(04:49) QB Keeper LAMSON, Justin rush to the right for a gain of 1 yard to the USC0, TOUCHDOWN STA, score nullified by penalty, clock 04:42 (Play was confirmed after review). PENALTY STA Holding on BANK, Alec enforced 10 yards from the USC1 to the USC11. NO PLAY (replay the down).Similar
Q4 4:35
1ST & GOAL
OPP 11
+9
100.0%
Justin Lamson run for 9 yds to the USC 2Similar
Q4 4:14
2ND & GOAL
OPP 2
+1
100.0%
Justin Lamson run for 1 yd to the USC 1Similar
Q4 3:35
3RD & GOAL
OPP 1
+1
100.0%
Justin Lamson 1 Yd Run (Joshua Karty Kick)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USCDrive 25TD
8 plays · 75 yds · 2:37100% → 100%
Q4 3:35
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+5
100.0%
Miller Moss pass complete to Josiah Zamora for 5 yds to the USC 30Similar
Q4 3:15
2ND & 5
OWN 30
+9
100.0%
A'Marion Peterson run for 9 yds to the USC 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 2:32
1ST & 10
OWN 39
+5
100.0%
A'Marion Peterson run for 5 yds to the USC 44Similar
Q4 1:54
2ND & 5
OWN 44
+34
100.0%
Miller Moss pass complete to Duce Robinson for 34 yds to the STAN 22 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 1:37
1ST & 10
OPP 22
0
100.0%
Miller Moss pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 1:34
2ND & 10
OPP 22
+7
100.0%
Darwin Barlow run for 7 yds to the STAN 15Similar
Q4 0:58
3RD & 3
OPP 15
+15
100.0%
Miller Moss 15 Yd Run (Denis Lynch Kick)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
STANDrive 26FUMBLE
3 plays · 13 yds · 0:350% → 0%
Q4 0:51
1ST & 10
OWN 41
+20
100.0%
Sedrick Irvin run for 20 yds to the USC 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 0:45
1ST & 10
OPP 39
+5
100.0%
Sedrick Irvin run for 5 yds to the USC 34Similar
Q4 0:16
2ND & 5
OPP 34
-12
100.0%
Sedrick Irvin run for a loss of 12 yards to the USC 46 Sedrick Irvin fumbled, recovered by USC Anthony Beavers Jr.Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USCDrive 27END OF GAME
1 play · -3 yds · 0:00100% → 100%
Q4 0:06
1ST & 10
OWN 46
0
100.0%
(00:06) [NH] Kneel down by MOSS, Miller at USC43 (team loss of 3), clock 00:00.Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
TD · Q2 13:43
Zachariah Branch 75 Yd Punt Return (Denis Lynch Kick)
+1.3
TD · Q2 6:57
Caleb Williams pass complete to Tahj Washington for 19 yds to the STAN 36 for a 1ST down
+1.3
TD · Q1 0:07
Austin Jones run for 1 yd for a TD (Denis Lynch KICK)
+0.9
YardLine · model v10Model estimate - not betting advice · Data provided by CollegeFootballData.com