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Win probability · BAY
modelBAY aheadUTAH aheadconfidence bandkey playBAY scoreUTAH score
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q4 10:01 · Palmer Williams punt for 48 yds, fair catch by Mycah Pittman at the UTAH 12
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Pregame priorHome team on offenseGarbage-time factorScore differentialScore diff ÷ offense timeoutsTime remaining
This game in five plays
- TD · Q2 3:23: Sawyer Robertson run for 4 yds for a TD (Isaiah Hankins KICK) — BAY win probability +10.4 pts (now 58%) (top driver: BAY has the ball).
- FG · Q3 4:05: Cole Becker 46 yd FG GOOD — UTAH win probability +5.5 pts (now 32%) (top driver: UTAH has the ball).
- TD · Q4 1:59: Nate Johnson 7 Yd Run (Cole Becker Kick) — UTAH win probability +39.3 pts (now 60%) (top driver: UTAH has the ball).
- KEY PLAY · Q4 1:31: Jaylon Glover run for 7 yds to the BAY 22 — UTAH win probability +16.3 pts (now 61%) (top driver: UTAH has the ball).
- TD · Q4 0:17: Jaylon Glover run for 11 yds for a TD (Cole Becker KICK) — UTAH win probability +33.4 pts (now 96%) (top driver: UTAH has the ball).
Was that the right call?
Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works
Fourth downs
BAY made the numbers' call on 7 of 7UTAH made the numbers' call on 5 of 7
- Q1 10:52UTAH 4th & 6 at UTAH 44, tiedAgrees with the numbersPunted · 64.8% before the snapGo for it64.8%−<0.140% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call64.8%average punt
- Q1 9:06BAY 4th & 12 at BAY 29, tiedAgrees with the numbersPunted · 35.6% before the snapGo for it35.4%−0.222% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call35.7%average punt
- Q1 8:02UTAH 4th & 9 at UTAH 47, tiedAgrees with the numbersPunted · 63.6% before the snapGo for it63.5%−0.132% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call63.7%average punt
- Q1 3:02BAY 4th & 5 at BAY 37, tiedAgrees with the numbersPunted · 37.9% before the snapGo for it37.9%−0.141% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call38.0%average punt
- Q2 13:03BAY 4th & 9 at UTAH 17, tiedAgrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 41.1% before the snapGo for it40.6%−0.429% to convertField goalTheir call41.0%80% to makePunt38.6%−2.4average punt
- Q2 9:04UTAH 4th & 13 at BAY 13, down 3Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 55.7% before the snapGo for it54.5%−1.117% to convertField goalTheir call55.6%85% to makePunt51.1%−4.5average punt
- Q2 1:22UTAH 4th & 4 at UTAH 46, down 7Close callPunted · 43.9% before the snapGo for it43.5%48% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call43.1%−0.4average punt
- Q2 0:34BAY 4th & 5 at UTAH 27, up 7Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 58.3% before the snapGo for it57.3%−1.141% to convertField goalTheir call58.4%62% to makePunt53.2%−5.2average punt
- Q3 11:00BAY 4th & 7 at UTAH 7, up 7Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 62.5% before the snapGo for it61.3%−0.528% to convertField goalTheir call61.8%91% to makePunt53.7%−8.1average punt
- Q3 7:54UTAH 4th & 12 at UTAH 47, down 10Agrees with the numbersPunted · 28.3% before the snapGo for it27.2%−2.223% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call29.5%average punt
- Q3 4:05UTAH 4th & 13 at BAY 28, down 10Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 24.8% before the snapGo for it22.2%−2.320% to convertField goalTheir call24.6%60% to makePunt16.7%−7.8average punt
- Q3 2:29BAY 4th & 7 at BAY 38, up 7Agrees with the numbersPunted · 71.9% before the snapGo for it71.9%−0.937% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call72.8%average punt
- Q4 12:01UTAH 4th & 10 at BAY 35, down 7Close callWent for it · 22.8% before the snapGo for itTheir call21.8%−0.830% to convertField goal22.7%45% to makePunt20.2%−2.5average punt
- Q4 10:01BAY 4th & 5 at BAY 40, up 7Agrees with the numbersPunted · 82.9% before the snapGo for it81.8%−0.241% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call82.0%average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
BAY made the numbers' call on 1 of 1UTAH made the numbers' call on 1 of 2
- Q2 3:23BAY Touchdown, up 6 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call53.8%97% to makeGo for two53.7%−0.145% to convert
- Q4 1:59UTAH Touchdown, down 1 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call42.0%97% to makeGo for two39.8%−2.345% to convert
- Q4 0:17UTAH Touchdown, up 6 before the tryClose callKicked · madeKickTheir call87.1%−0.897% to makeGo for two87.9%45% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chartUTAHDrive 1PUNT9 plays · 19 yds · 4:0868% → 66%
Q1 11:34
3RD & 4
OWN 46
-2
33.7%
Bryson Barnes sacked by Gabe Hall for a loss of 2 yards to the UTAH 44Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BAYDrive 2PUNT5 plays · 9 yds · 1:3834% → 35%
Q1 10:44
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+11
34.3%
Sawyer Robertson pass complete to Jonah Burton for 11 yds to the BAY 31 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 9:38
2ND & 13
OWN 28
+1
34.8%
Sawyer Robertson pass complete to Dominic Richardson for 1 yd to the BAY 29Similar
Q1 9:06
4TH & 12
OWN 29
+26
34.6%
Palmer Williams punt for 51 yds , Mycah Pittman returns for 26 yds to the UTAH 46Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UTAHDrive 3PUNT4 plays · 1 yds · 0:5866% → 65%
Q1 8:02
4TH & 9
OWN 47
0
35.5%
Jack Bouwmeester punt for 45 yds, fair catch by Josh Cameron at the BAY 8Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BAYDrive 4PUNT11 plays · 29 yds · 4:5435% → 37%
Q1 3:02
4TH & 5
OWN 37
+2
37.0%
Palmer Williams punt for 45 yds , Mycah Pittman returns for 2 yds to the UTAH 20Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UTAHDrive 5INT5 plays · 18 yds · 2:4963% → 62%
BAYDrive 6FG9 plays · 15 yds · 1:5741% → 41%
Q1 0:00
1ST & 10
OPP 32
+14
41.0%
Sawyer Robertson pass complete to Dominic Richardson for 14 yds to the UTAH 18 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 14:56
1ST & 10
OPP 18
-10
41.0%
Richard Reese run for 5 yds to the UTAH 13 Baylor Penalty, Face Mask (15 yards) (Kelsey Johnson) to the UTAH 28Similar
Q2 14:13
1ST & 20
OPP 28
+9
41.1%
Sawyer Robertson pass complete to Hal Presley for 9 yds to the UTAH 19Similar
Q2 13:40
3RD & 21
OPP 29
+12
39.9%
Sawyer Robertson pass complete to Hal Presley for 12 yds to the UTAH 17Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UTAHDrive 7FG10 plays · 62 yds · 3:5959% → 60%
Q2 11:34
1ST & 10
OPP 32
+22
39.1%
Nate Johnson pass complete to Devaughn Vele for 22 yds to the BAY 10 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 11:02
1ST & 0
OPP 10
-10
38.8%
Glover, Jaylon rush for 4 yards to the BAYLOR6, PENALTY UTAH holding (Schroeder, Hunter) 10 yards to the BAYLOR20, NO PLAY.Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BAYDrive 8TD12 plays · 79 yds · 5:2942% → 58%
UTAHDrive 9PUNT6 plays · 21 yds · 1:4846% → 45%
Q2 3:10
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+15
53.9%
Bryson Barnes pass complete to Devaughn Vele for 15 yds to the UTAH 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 2:09
2ND & 8
OWN 42
+4
52.9%
Bryson Barnes pass complete to Mikey Matthews for 4 yds to the UTAH 46Similar
Q2 1:22
4TH & 4
OWN 46
0
54.7%
Jack Bouwmeester punt for 41 yds, fair catch by Josh Cameron at the BAY 13Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BAYDrive 10MISSED FG8 plays · 60 yds · 0:4156% → 58%
Q2 0:50
1ST & 10
OWN 29
+39
56.6%
Sawyer Robertson pass complete to Ketron Jackson Jr. for 39 yds to the UTAH 32 for a 1ST downSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UTAHDrive 11END OF HALF4 plays · 12 yds · 0:2543% → 43%
Q2 0:28
1ST & 10
OWN 27
+11
57.2%
Bryson Barnes pass complete to Ja'Quinden Jackson for 11 yds to the UTAH 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BAYDrive 12FG11 plays · 68 yds · 3:5458% → 67%
Q3 14:54
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+6
58.4%
Sawyer Robertson pass complete to Richard Reese for 6 yds to the BAY 31Similar
Q3 13:25
2ND & 2
OWN 45
+35
62.1%
Sawyer Robertson pass complete to Drake Dabney for 35 yds to the UTAH 20 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 12:12
2ND & 8
OPP 18
+9
64.0%
Sawyer Robertson run for no gain to the UTAH 18 for a 1ST down Utah Penalty, Personal Foul (JT Greep) to the UTAH 9 for a 1ST downSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UTAHDrive 13PUNT8 plays · 23 yds · 2:4933% → 29%
BAYDrive 14INT1 play · 0 yds · 0:0070% → 70%
Q3 7:48
1ST & 10
OWN 13
0
70.3%
Sawyer Robertson pass intercepted Zemaiah Vaughn return for no gain to the BAY 37Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UTAHDrive 15FG8 plays · 9 yds · 3:3033% → 32%
Q3 7:35
1ST & 10
OPP 37
+3
67.5%
Nate Johnson pass complete to Money Parks for 3 yds to the BAY 34Similar
Q3 5:54
1ST & 10
OPP 25
-10
67.0%
Parks, Money rush for 10 yards to the BAYLOR15, PENALTY UTAH holding (Mokofisi, Michael) 10 yards to the BAYLOR35, NO PLAY.Similar
Q3 5:44
1ST & 20
OPP 35
-1
68.6%
Bryson Barnes sacked by TJ Franklin for a loss of 1 yard to the BAY 36Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BAYDrive 16PUNT5 plays · 3 yds · 1:3471% → 72%
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UTAHDrive 17DOWNS13 plays · 45 yds · 5:2432% → 21%
BAYDrive 18PUNT4 plays · 5 yds · 1:5783% → 85%
Q4 10:01
4TH & 5
OWN 40
0
84.9%
Palmer Williams punt for 48 yds, fair catch by Mycah Pittman at the UTAH 12Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UTAHDrive 19TD17 plays · 88 yds · 7:5520% → 60%
Q4 7:45
1ST & 10
OWN 22
-5
81.9%
Nate Johnson sacked by Trey Wilson for a loss of 5 yards to the UTAH 17Similar
Q4 7:02
2ND & 15
OWN 17
+17
85.8%
Nate Johnson pass complete to Mikey Matthews for 17 yds to the UTAH 34 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 6:03
2ND & 1
OWN 43
-10
83.0%
Glover, Jaylon rush for 4 yards to the UTAH47, PENALTY UTAH holding (Laumea, Sataoa) 10 yards to the UTAH33, NO PLAY.Similar
Q4 4:12
1ST & 10
OWN 49
+13
84.2%
Nate Johnson pass complete to Money Parks for 13 yds to the BAY 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 3:42
1ST & 10
OPP 38
+18
84.8%
Nate Johnson pass complete to Mikey Matthews for 18 yds to the BAY 20 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 3:12
1ST & 10
OPP 20
+9
83.0%
Nate Johnson pass complete to Mikey Matthews for 9 yds to the BAY 11Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BAYDrive 20INT6 plays · -6 yds · 0:1957% → 55%
Q4 1:35
3RD & 16
OWN 20
-9
55.0%
Sawyer Robertson pass intercepted Cole Bishop return for 9 yds to the BAY 29Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UTAHDrive 21TD8 plays · 29 yds · 1:1461% → 96%
Q4 1:22
3RD & 3
OPP 22
-3
39.2%
Ja'Quinden Jackson run for 7 yds to the BAY 15 Utah Penalty, Offensive Holding (Michael Mokofisi) to the BAY 25Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BAYDrive 22END OF GAME4 plays · 51 yds · 0:099% → 17%
Biggest swings
TD · Q4 1:59
Nate Johnson 7 Yd Run (Cole Becker Kick)
-39.3
TD · Q4 0:17
Jaylon Glover run for 11 yds for a TD (Cole Becker KICK)
-33.4
End of Game · Final
Game over.
-17