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UTAH

Utah 20 at Baylor 13

BAY
2023 · Week 2 · Sep 9, 2023 · McLane Stadium
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Win probability · BAY
modelBAY aheadUTAH aheadconfidence bandkey playBAY scoreUTAH score
0%25%50%75%100%Q1Q2Q3Q4FGFGTDFGFGTDTDEnd of Game
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q3 2:29 · Palmer Williams punt for 42 yds, downed at the UTAH 20
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Pregame priorHome team on offenseGarbage-time factorScore differentialScore diff ÷ offense timeoutsTime remaining
+38.5+19.30−19.3−38.5Q1Q2Q3Q4Play 116Pregame prior−5.3Home team on offense+11.1Garbage-time factor+5.7Score differential+2.5Score diff ÷ offense timeouts+2.2Time remaining−0.5
This game in five plays
  1. TD · Q2 3:23: Sawyer Robertson run for 4 yds for a TD (Isaiah Hankins KICK) — BAY win probability +10.4 pts (now 58%) (top driver: BAY has the ball).
  2. FG · Q3 4:05: Cole Becker 46 yd FG GOOD — UTAH win probability +5.5 pts (now 32%) (top driver: UTAH has the ball).
  3. TD · Q4 1:59: Nate Johnson 7 Yd Run (Cole Becker Kick) — UTAH win probability +39.3 pts (now 60%) (top driver: UTAH has the ball).
  4. KEY PLAY · Q4 1:31: Jaylon Glover run for 7 yds to the BAY 22 — UTAH win probability +16.3 pts (now 61%) (top driver: UTAH has the ball).
  5. TD · Q4 0:17: Jaylon Glover run for 11 yds for a TD (Cole Becker KICK) — UTAH win probability +33.4 pts (now 96%) (top driver: UTAH has the ball).
Was that the right call?

Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works

Fourth downs
BAY made the numbers' call on 7 of 7UTAH made the numbers' call on 5 of 7
  1. Q1 10:52UTAH 4th & 6 at UTAH 44, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 64.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    64.8%−<0.1
    40% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    64.8%
    average punt
  2. Q1 9:06BAY 4th & 12 at BAY 29, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 35.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    35.4%−0.2
    22% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    35.7%
    average punt
  3. Q1 8:02UTAH 4th & 9 at UTAH 47, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 63.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    63.5%−0.1
    32% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    63.7%
    average punt
  4. Q1 3:02BAY 4th & 5 at BAY 37, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 37.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    37.9%−0.1
    41% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    38.0%
    average punt
  5. Q2 13:03BAY 4th & 9 at UTAH 17, tied
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 41.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    40.6%−0.4
    29% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    41.0%
    80% to make
    Punt
    38.6%−2.4
    average punt
  6. Q2 9:04UTAH 4th & 13 at BAY 13, down 3
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 55.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    54.5%−1.1
    17% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    55.6%
    85% to make
    Punt
    51.1%−4.5
    average punt
  7. Q2 1:22UTAH 4th & 4 at UTAH 46, down 7
    Close callPunted · 43.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    43.5%
    48% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    43.1%−0.4
    average punt
  8. Q2 0:34BAY 4th & 5 at UTAH 27, up 7
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 58.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    57.3%−1.1
    41% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    58.4%
    62% to make
    Punt
    53.2%−5.2
    average punt
  9. Q3 11:00BAY 4th & 7 at UTAH 7, up 7
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 62.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    61.3%−0.5
    28% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    61.8%
    91% to make
    Punt
    53.7%−8.1
    average punt
  10. Q3 7:54UTAH 4th & 12 at UTAH 47, down 10
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 28.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    27.2%−2.2
    23% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    29.5%
    average punt
  11. Q3 4:05UTAH 4th & 13 at BAY 28, down 10
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 24.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    22.2%−2.3
    20% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    24.6%
    60% to make
    Punt
    16.7%−7.8
    average punt
  12. Q3 2:29BAY 4th & 7 at BAY 38, up 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 71.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    71.9%−0.9
    37% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    72.8%
    average punt
  13. Q4 12:01UTAH 4th & 10 at BAY 35, down 7
    Close callWent for it · 22.8% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    21.8%−0.8
    30% to convert
    Field goal
    22.7%
    45% to make
    Punt
    20.2%−2.5
    average punt
  14. Q4 10:01BAY 4th & 5 at BAY 40, up 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 82.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    81.8%−0.2
    41% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    82.0%
    average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
BAY made the numbers' call on 1 of 1UTAH made the numbers' call on 1 of 2
  1. Q2 3:23BAY Touchdown, up 6 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    53.8%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    53.7%−0.1
    45% to convert
  2. Q4 1:59UTAH Touchdown, down 1 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    42.0%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    39.8%−2.3
    45% to convert
  3. Q4 0:17UTAH Touchdown, up 6 before the try
    Close callKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    87.1%−0.8
    97% to make
    Go for two
    87.9%
    45% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chart
UTAHDrive 1PUNT
9 plays · 19 yds · 4:0868% → 66%
Q1 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 25
-5
32.5%
Utah Penalty, Delay of Game (-5 Yards) to the UTAH 20Similar
Q1 14:54
1ST & 15
OWN 20
+11
32.5%
Ja'Quinden Jackson run for 11 yds to the UTAH 31Similar
Q1 14:23
2ND & 4
OWN 31
-1
32.7%
Ja'Quinden Jackson run for a loss of 1 yard to the UTAH 30Similar
Q1 13:47
3RD & 5
OWN 30
+10
33.0%
Bryson Barnes run for 10 yds to the UTAH 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 12:57
1ST & 10
OWN 40
+5
33.2%
Nate Johnson run for 5 yds to the UTAH 45Similar
Q1 12:26
2ND & 5
OWN 45
+1
33.3%
Ja'Quinden Jackson run for 1 yd to the UTAH 46Similar
Q1 11:34
3RD & 4
OWN 46
-2
33.7%
Bryson Barnes sacked by Gabe Hall for a loss of 2 yards to the UTAH 44Similar
Q1 10:52
4TH & 6
OWN 44
0
34.2%
Jack Bouwmeester punt for 56 yds for a touchbackSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BAYDrive 2PUNT
5 plays · 9 yds · 1:3834% → 35%
Q1 10:44
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+11
34.3%
Sawyer Robertson pass complete to Jonah Burton for 11 yds to the BAY 31 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 10:18
1ST & 10
OWN 31
-3
34.6%
Dominic Richardson run for a loss of 3 yards to the BAY 28Similar
Q1 9:38
2ND & 13
OWN 28
+1
34.8%
Sawyer Robertson pass complete to Dominic Richardson for 1 yd to the BAY 29Similar
Q1 9:19
3RD & 12
OWN 29
0
34.7%
Sawyer Robertson pass incomplete to Ketron Jackson Jr.Similar
Q1 9:06
4TH & 12
OWN 29
+26
34.6%
Palmer Williams punt for 51 yds , Mycah Pittman returns for 26 yds to the UTAH 46Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UTAHDrive 3PUNT
4 plays · 1 yds · 0:5866% → 65%
Q1 9:00
1ST & 10
OWN 46
0
34.4%
Bryson Barnes pass incomplete to Money ParksSimilar
Q1 8:55
2ND & 10
OWN 46
+1
34.5%
Nate Johnson run for 1 yd to the UTAH 47Similar
Q1 8:10
3RD & 9
OWN 47
0
35.0%
Bryson Barnes pass incomplete to Devaughn VeleSimilar
Q1 8:02
4TH & 9
OWN 47
0
35.5%
Jack Bouwmeester punt for 45 yds, fair catch by Josh Cameron at the BAY 8Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BAYDrive 4PUNT
11 plays · 29 yds · 4:5435% → 37%
Q1 7:56
1ST & 10
OWN 8
+3
35.3%
Dominic Richardson run for 3 yds to the BAY 11Similar
Q1 7:34
2ND & 7
OWN 11
-5
35.4%
Baylor Penalty, False Start (Alvin Ebosele) to the BAY 6Similar
Q1 6:56
2ND & 12
OWN 6
0
35.6%
Sawyer Robertson pass incomplete to Ketron Jackson Jr.Similar
Q1 6:45
3RD & 12
OWN 6
+13
35.4%
Dominic Richardson run for 13 yds to the BAY 19 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 6:19
1ST & 10
OWN 19
-3
36.0%
Richard Reese run for a loss of 3 yards to the BAY 16Similar
Q1 5:32
2ND & 13
OWN 16
+9
36.3%
Sawyer Robertson run for 9 yds to the BAY 25Similar
Q1 5:13
3RD & 4
OWN 25
+7
36.2%
Dominic Richardson run for 7 yds to the BAY 32 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 4:34
1ST & 10
OWN 32
+5
36.9%
Richard Reese run for 5 yds to the BAY 37Similar
Q1 3:50
2ND & 5
OWN 37
0
37.8%
Sawyer Robertson pass incomplete to Monaray BaldwinSimilar
Q1 3:43
3RD & 5
OWN 37
0
37.1%
Jonah Burton run for no gain to the BAY 37Similar
Q1 3:02
4TH & 5
OWN 37
+2
37.0%
Palmer Williams punt for 45 yds , Mycah Pittman returns for 2 yds to the UTAH 20Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UTAHDrive 5INT
5 plays · 18 yds · 2:4963% → 62%
Q1 2:57
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+3
37.3%
Ja'Quinden Jackson run for 3 yds to the UTAH 23Similar
Q1 2:11
2ND & 7
OWN 23
+13
37.2%
Bryson Barnes pass complete to Miki Suguturaga for 13 yds to the UTAH 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 1:31
1ST & 10
OWN 36
+3
37.0%
Ja'Quinden Jackson run for 3 yds to the UTAH 39Similar
Q1 0:53
2ND & 7
OWN 39
-1
36.8%
Nate Johnson run for a loss of 1 yard to the UTAH 38Similar
Q1 0:08
3RD & 8
OWN 38
-3
37.7%
Bryson Barnes pass intercepted Kyler Jordan return for 3 yds to the UTAH 32Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BAYDrive 6FG
9 plays · 15 yds · 1:5741% → 41%
Q1 0:00
1ST & 10
OPP 32
+14
41.0%
Sawyer Robertson pass complete to Dominic Richardson for 14 yds to the UTAH 18 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 14:56
1ST & 10
OPP 18
-10
41.0%
Richard Reese run for 5 yds to the UTAH 13 Baylor Penalty, Face Mask (15 yards) (Kelsey Johnson) to the UTAH 28Similar
Q2 14:13
1ST & 20
OPP 28
+9
41.1%
Sawyer Robertson pass complete to Hal Presley for 9 yds to the UTAH 19Similar
Q2 13:52
2ND & 11
OPP 19
-5
41.4%
Baylor Penalty, False Start (Kaden Sieracki) to the UTAH 24Similar
Q2 13:47
2ND & 16
OPP 24
0
40.7%
Sawyer Robertson pass incomplete to Hal PresleySimilar
Q2 13:47
3RD & 16
OPP 24
-5
39.9%
Baylor Penalty, False Start (Alvin Ebosele) to the UTAH 29Similar
Q2 13:40
3RD & 21
OPP 29
+12
39.9%
Sawyer Robertson pass complete to Hal Presley for 12 yds to the UTAH 17Similar
Q2 13:03
4TH & 9
OPP 17
+34
41.2%
Isaiah Hankins 34 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UTAHDrive 7FG
10 plays · 62 yds · 3:5959% → 60%
Q2 13:03
1ST & 10
OWN 25
-5
41.1%
Utah Penalty, False Start (Hayden Erickson) to the UTAH 20Similar
Q2 12:56
1ST & 15
OWN 20
+4
41.3%
Nate Johnson run for 4 yds to the UTAH 24Similar
Q2 12:08
2ND & 11
OWN 24
+44
41.8%
Ja'Quinden Jackson run for 44 yds to the BAY 32 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 11:34
1ST & 10
OPP 32
+22
39.1%
Nate Johnson pass complete to Devaughn Vele for 22 yds to the BAY 10 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 11:02
1ST & 0
OPP 10
-10
38.8%
Glover, Jaylon rush for 4 yards to the BAYLOR6, PENALTY UTAH holding (Schroeder, Hunter) 10 yards to the BAYLOR20, NO PLAY.Similar
Q2 10:26
1ST & 0
OPP 20
0
39.0%
Bryson Barnes pass incomplete to Devaughn VeleSimilar
Q2 10:17
2ND & 0
OPP 20
+5
39.0%
Bryson Barnes run for 5 yds to the BAY 15Similar
Q2 9:45
3RD & GOAL
OPP 15
+2
41.3%
Nate Johnson run for 2 yds to the BAY 13Similar
Q2 9:04
4TH & GOAL
OPP 13
+31
39.7%
Cole Becker 31 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BAYDrive 8TD
12 plays · 79 yds · 5:2942% → 58%
Q2 8:52
1ST & 10
OWN 21
+2
41.6%
Sawyer Robertson run for 2 yds to the BAY 23Similar
Q2 8:07
2ND & 8
OWN 23
+12
41.7%
Dominic Richardson run for 12 yds to the BAY 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 7:17
1ST & 10
OWN 35
+3
42.4%
Richard Reese run for 3 yds to the BAY 38Similar
Q2 6:55
2ND & 7
OWN 38
+30
43.8%
Sawyer Robertson pass complete to Ketron Jackson Jr. for 30 yds to the UTAH 32 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 6:07
1ST & 10
OPP 32
+3
46.0%
Dominic Richardson run for 3 yds to the UTAH 29Similar
Q2 5:40
2ND & 7
OPP 29
+10
46.3%
Sawyer Robertson pass complete to Richard Reese for 10 yds to the UTAH 19 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 5:06
1ST & 10
OPP 19
0
46.6%
Sawyer Robertson pass incomplete to Ketron Jackson Jr.Similar
Q2 4:58
2ND & 10
OPP 19
0
46.7%
Sawyer Robertson pass incomplete to Hal PresleySimilar
Q2 4:45
3RD & 10
OPP 19
+11
45.7%
Dominic Richardson run for 11 yds to the UTAH 8 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 4:09
1ST & GOAL
OPP 8
+4
47.1%
Sawyer Robertson run for 4 yds to the UTAH 4Similar
Q2 3:23
2ND & GOAL
OPP 4
+4
57.6%
Sawyer Robertson run for 4 yds for a TD (Isaiah Hankins KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UTAHDrive 9PUNT
6 plays · 21 yds · 1:4846% → 45%
Q2 3:10
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+15
53.9%
Bryson Barnes pass complete to Devaughn Vele for 15 yds to the UTAH 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 2:23
1ST & 10
OWN 40
+2
52.6%
Jaylon Glover run for 2 yds to the UTAH 42Similar
Q2 2:09
2ND & 8
OWN 42
+4
52.9%
Bryson Barnes pass complete to Mikey Matthews for 4 yds to the UTAH 46Similar
Q2 1:28
3RD & 4
OWN 46
0
52.5%
Bryson Barnes pass incomplete to Mikey MatthewsSimilar
Q2 1:22
4TH & 4
OWN 46
0
54.7%
Jack Bouwmeester punt for 41 yds, fair catch by Josh Cameron at the BAY 13Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BAYDrive 10MISSED FG
8 plays · 60 yds · 0:4156% → 58%
Q2 1:15
1ST & 10
OWN 13
0
55.7%
Sawyer Robertson pass incomplete to Jonah BurtonSimilar
Q2 1:04
2ND & 10
OWN 13
+16
55.6%
Dominic Richardson run for 16 yds to the BAY 29 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:50
1ST & 10
OWN 29
+39
56.6%
Sawyer Robertson pass complete to Ketron Jackson Jr. for 39 yds to the UTAH 32 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:45
1ST & 10
OPP 32
0
60.0%
Sawyer Robertson pass incomplete to Drake DabneySimilar
Q2 0:42
2ND & 10
OPP 32
0
59.9%
Sawyer Robertson pass incomplete to Richard ReeseSimilar
Q2 0:39
3RD & 10
OPP 32
+5
58.6%
Dominic Richardson run for 5 yds to the UTAH 27Similar
Q2 0:34
4TH & 5
OPP 27
+44
57.8%
Isaiah Hankins 44 yd FG MISSEDSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UTAHDrive 11END OF HALF
4 plays · 12 yds · 0:2543% → 43%
Q2 0:28
1ST & 10
OWN 27
+11
57.2%
Bryson Barnes pass complete to Ja'Quinden Jackson for 11 yds to the UTAH 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:21
1ST & 10
OWN 38
+1
56.1%
Bryson Barnes run for 1 yd to the UTAH 39Similar
Q2 0:14
2ND & 9
OWN 39
0
56.3%
Bryson Barnes pass incomplete to Devaughn VeleSimilar
Q2 0:03
3RD & 9
OWN 39
0
57.4%
Bryson Barnes run for no gain to the UTAH 39Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BAYDrive 12FG
11 plays · 68 yds · 3:5458% → 67%
Q3 14:54
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+6
58.4%
Sawyer Robertson pass complete to Richard Reese for 6 yds to the BAY 31Similar
Q3 14:06
2ND & 4
OWN 31
+6
60.0%
Richard Reese run for 6 yds to the BAY 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 13:38
1ST & 10
OWN 37
+8
60.4%
Dominic Richardson run for 8 yds to the BAY 45Similar
Q3 13:25
2ND & 2
OWN 45
+35
62.1%
Sawyer Robertson pass complete to Drake Dabney for 35 yds to the UTAH 20 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 12:44
1ST & 10
OPP 20
+2
62.8%
Dawson Pendergrass run for 2 yds to the UTAH 18Similar
Q3 12:12
2ND & 8
OPP 18
+9
64.0%
Sawyer Robertson run for no gain to the UTAH 18 for a 1ST down Utah Penalty, Personal Foul (JT Greep) to the UTAH 9 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 11:44
1ST & GOAL
OPP 9
+2
64.5%
Jonah Burton run for 2 yds to the UTAH 7Similar
Q3 11:10
2ND & GOAL
OPP 7
0
65.0%
Sawyer Robertson pass incomplete to Hal PresleySimilar
Q3 11:05
3RD & GOAL
OPP 7
0
63.8%
Sawyer Robertson pass incomplete to Ketron Jackson Jr.Similar
Q3 11:00
4TH & GOAL
OPP 7
+24
67.4%
Isaiah Hankins 24 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UTAHDrive 13PUNT
8 plays · 23 yds · 2:4933% → 29%
Q3 10:43
1ST & 10
OWN 24
+12
67.0%
Ja'Quinden Jackson run for 12 yds to the UTAH 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 10:12
1ST & 10
OWN 36
+9
66.5%
Ja'Quinden Jackson run for 9 yds to the UTAH 45Similar
Q3 9:27
2ND & 1
OWN 45
+4
65.9%
Ja'Quinden Jackson run for 4 yds to the UTAH 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 8:48
1ST & 10
OWN 49
0
66.9%
Bryson Barnes pass incomplete to Devaughn VeleSimilar
Q3 8:43
2ND & 10
OWN 49
-2
67.4%
Mycah Pittman run for a loss of 2 yards to the UTAH 47Similar
Q3 8:01
3RD & 12
OWN 47
0
69.8%
Bryson Barnes pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 7:54
4TH & 12
OWN 47
0
71.4%
Jack Bouwmeester punt for 40 yds, fair catch by Josh Cameron at the BAY 13Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BAYDrive 14INT
1 play · 0 yds · 0:0070% → 70%
Q3 7:48
1ST & 10
OWN 13
0
70.3%
Sawyer Robertson pass intercepted Zemaiah Vaughn return for no gain to the BAY 37Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UTAHDrive 15FG
8 plays · 9 yds · 3:3033% → 32%
Q3 7:35
1ST & 10
OPP 37
+3
67.5%
Nate Johnson pass complete to Money Parks for 3 yds to the BAY 34Similar
Q3 7:05
2ND & 7
OPP 34
+6
66.1%
Ja'Quinden Jackson run for 6 yds to the BAY 28Similar
Q3 6:17
3RD & 1
OPP 28
+3
68.2%
Ja'Quinden Jackson run for 3 yds to the BAY 25 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 5:54
1ST & 10
OPP 25
-10
67.0%
Parks, Money rush for 10 yards to the BAYLOR15, PENALTY UTAH holding (Mokofisi, Michael) 10 yards to the BAYLOR35, NO PLAY.Similar
Q3 5:44
1ST & 20
OPP 35
-1
68.6%
Bryson Barnes sacked by TJ Franklin for a loss of 1 yard to the BAY 36Similar
Q3 4:51
2ND & 21
OPP 36
0
71.5%
Bryson Barnes pass incomplete to Devaughn VeleSimilar
Q3 4:40
3RD & 21
OPP 36
+8
73.2%
Bryson Barnes run for 8 yds to the BAY 28Similar
Q3 4:05
4TH & 13
OPP 28
+46
67.7%
Cole Becker 46 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BAYDrive 16PUNT
5 plays · 3 yds · 1:3471% → 72%
Q3 4:03
1ST & 10
OWN 35
+1
70.8%
Dominic Richardson run for 1 yd to the BAY 36Similar
Q3 3:22
2ND & 9
OWN 36
+2
71.7%
Dominic Richardson run for 2 yds to the BAY 38Similar
Q3 2:37
3RD & 7
OWN 38
0
73.2%
Sawyer Robertson pass incomplete to Hal PresleySimilar
Q3 2:29
4TH & 7
OWN 38
0
71.6%
Palmer Williams punt for 42 yds, downed at the UTAH 20Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UTAHDrive 17DOWNS
13 plays · 45 yds · 5:2432% → 21%
Q3 2:25
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+2
67.7%
Ja'Quinden Jackson run for 2 yds to the UTAH 22Similar
Q3 1:50
2ND & 8
OWN 22
+2
68.4%
Ja'Quinden Jackson run for 2 yds to the UTAH 24Similar
Q3 1:07
3RD & 6
OWN 24
+11
71.7%
Bryson Barnes pass complete to Mycah Pittman for 11 yds to the UTAH 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 0:11
1ST & 10
OWN 35
+1
70.4%
Nate Johnson run for 1 yd to the UTAH 36Similar
Q4 14:54
2ND & 9
OWN 36
+17
70.5%
Bryson Barnes pass complete to Money Parks for 17 yds to the BAY 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 14:30
1ST & 10
OPP 47
+4
67.5%
Charlie Vincent run for 4 yds to the BAY 43Similar
Q4 13:42
2ND & 6
OPP 43
0
70.8%
Bryson Barnes pass incomplete to Devaughn VeleSimilar
Q4 13:35
3RD & 6
OPP 43
+8
71.5%
Ja'Quinden Jackson run for 8 yds to the BAY 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 13:00
1ST & 10
OPP 35
0
69.4%
Bryson Barnes run for no gain to the BAY 35Similar
Q4 12:11
2ND & 10
OPP 35
0
70.7%
Bryson Barnes pass incomplete to Miki SuguturagaSimilar
Q4 12:05
3RD & 10
OPP 35
0
74.0%
Bryson Barnes pass incomplete to Mikey MatthewsSimilar
Q4 12:01
4TH & 10
OPP 35
0
78.7%
Bryson Barnes pass incomplete to Thomas YassminSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BAYDrive 18PUNT
4 plays · 5 yds · 1:5783% → 85%
Q4 11:58
1ST & 10
OWN 35
+1
83.4%
Richard Reese run for 1 yd to the BAY 36Similar
Q4 11:08
2ND & 9
OWN 36
+4
84.4%
Richard Reese run for 4 yds to the BAY 40Similar
Q4 10:40
3RD & 5
OWN 40
0
85.2%
Dominic Richardson run for no gain to the BAY 40Similar
Q4 10:01
4TH & 5
OWN 40
0
84.9%
Palmer Williams punt for 48 yds, fair catch by Mycah Pittman at the UTAH 12Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UTAHDrive 19TD
17 plays · 88 yds · 7:5520% → 60%
Q4 9:54
1ST & 10
OWN 12
+1
80.0%
Ja'Quinden Jackson run for 1 yd to the UTAH 13Similar
Q4 9:20
2ND & 9
OWN 13
+7
80.6%
Nate Johnson run for 7 yds to the UTAH 20Similar
Q4 8:43
3RD & 2
OWN 20
+2
81.7%
Nate Johnson run for 2 yds to the UTAH 22 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 7:45
1ST & 10
OWN 22
-5
81.9%
Nate Johnson sacked by Trey Wilson for a loss of 5 yards to the UTAH 17Similar
Q4 7:02
2ND & 15
OWN 17
+17
85.8%
Nate Johnson pass complete to Mikey Matthews for 17 yds to the UTAH 34 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 6:32
1ST & 10
OWN 34
+9
84.5%
Jaylon Glover run for 9 yds to the UTAH 43Similar
Q4 6:03
2ND & 1
OWN 43
-10
83.0%
Glover, Jaylon rush for 4 yards to the UTAH47, PENALTY UTAH holding (Laumea, Sataoa) 10 yards to the UTAH33, NO PLAY.Similar
Q4 5:30
2ND & 11
OWN 33
+9
86.6%
Nate Johnson run for 9 yds to the UTAH 42Similar
Q4 5:00
3RD & 2
OWN 42
+7
84.2%
Jaylon Glover run for 7 yds to the UTAH 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 4:12
1ST & 10
OWN 49
+13
84.2%
Nate Johnson pass complete to Money Parks for 13 yds to the BAY 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 3:42
1ST & 10
OPP 38
+18
84.8%
Nate Johnson pass complete to Mikey Matthews for 18 yds to the BAY 20 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 3:12
1ST & 10
OPP 20
+9
83.0%
Nate Johnson pass complete to Mikey Matthews for 9 yds to the BAY 11Similar
Q4 2:45
2ND & 1
OPP 11
+4
83.2%
Jaylon Glover run for 4 yds to the BAY 7 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 2:07
1ST & GOAL
OPP 7
0
83.7%
Nate Johnson pass incomplete to Ja'Quinden JacksonSimilar
Q4 2:03
2ND & GOAL
OPP 7
0
83.7%
Ja'Quinden Jackson run for no gain to the BAY 7Similar
Q4 1:59
3RD & GOAL
OPP 7
+7
40.5%
Nate Johnson 7 Yd Run (Cole Becker Kick)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BAYDrive 20INT
6 plays · -6 yds · 0:1957% → 55%
Q4 1:54
1ST & 10
OWN 26
-5
56.5%
Baylor Penalty, False Start (Gavin Byers) to the BAY 21Similar
Q4 1:50
1ST & 15
OWN 21
-1
55.6%
Dominic Richardson run for a loss of 1 yard to the BAY 20Similar
Q4 1:44
2ND & 16
OWN 20
0
57.0%
Sawyer Robertson pass incomplete to Hal PresleySimilar
Q4 1:35
3RD & 16
OWN 20
-9
55.0%
Sawyer Robertson pass intercepted Cole Bishop return for 9 yds to the BAY 29Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UTAHDrive 21TD
8 plays · 29 yds · 1:1461% → 96%
Q4 1:31
1ST & 10
OPP 29
+7
38.7%
Jaylon Glover run for 7 yds to the BAY 22Similar
Q4 1:26
2ND & 3
OPP 22
0
37.9%
Jaylon Glover run for no gain to the BAY 22Similar
Q4 1:22
3RD & 3
OPP 22
-3
39.2%
Ja'Quinden Jackson run for 7 yds to the BAY 15 Utah Penalty, Offensive Holding (Michael Mokofisi) to the BAY 25Similar
Q4 1:12
3RD & 6
OPP 25
+12
39.4%
Ja'Quinden Jackson run for 12 yds to the BAY 13 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 0:56
1ST & 10
OPP 13
+2
37.2%
Ja'Quinden Jackson run for 2 yds to the BAY 11Similar
Q4 0:17
2ND & 8
OPP 11
+11
3.8%
Jaylon Glover run for 11 yds for a TD (Cole Becker KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BAYDrive 22END OF GAME
4 plays · 51 yds · 0:099% → 17%
Q4 0:09
1ST & 10
OWN 27
+4
8.7%
Sawyer Robertson pass complete to Hal Presley for 4 yds to the BAY 31Similar
Q4 0:01
2ND & 6
OWN 31
+47
9.1%
Sawyer Robertson pass complete to Hal Presley for 47 yds to the UTAH 22 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 0:00
1ST & 10
OPP 22
0
17.0%
Sawyer Robertson pass incomplete to Ketron Jackson Jr.Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
TD · Q4 1:59
Nate Johnson 7 Yd Run (Cole Becker Kick)
-39.3
TD · Q4 0:17
Jaylon Glover run for 11 yds for a TD (Cole Becker KICK)
-33.4
End of Game · Final
Game over.
-17
YardLine · model v10Model estimate - not betting advice · Data provided by CollegeFootballData.com