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NEV

Nevada 14 at USC 66

USC
2023 · Week 1 · Sep 2, 2023 · Los Angeles Memorial Coliseum
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Win probability · USC
modelUSC aheadNEV aheadconfidence bandkey playUSC scoreNEV score
0%25%50%75%100%Q1Q2Q3Q4TDTDTDTDTDTDTDFGTDTDTDTDEnd of Game
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q4 0:41 · AJ Bianco sacked by De'jon Benton for a loss of 7 yards to the NEV 43
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Pregame priorHome team on offenseScore differentialBlowout marginGarbage-time factorScore diff ÷ offense timeouts
+49.0+24.50−24.5−49.0Q1Q2Q3Q4
This game in five plays
  1. TD · Q1 11:01: Sean Dollars run for 3 yds for a TD (Brandon Talton KICK) — NEV win probability +0.1 pts (now 1%) (top driver: NEV has the ball).
  2. TD · Q1 5:18: MarShawn Lloyd run for 24 yds for a TD (Denis Lynch KICK) — USC win probability +0.2 pts (now 98%) (top driver: USC has the ball).
  3. TD · Q1 2:13: Caleb Williams pass complete to Tahj Washington for 22 yds for a TD (Denis Lynch KICK) — USC win probability +0.3 pts (now 99%) (top driver: USC has the ball).
  4. TD · Q2 14:08: Caleb Williams pass complete to Michael Jackson III for 15 yds for a TD (Denis Lynch KICK) — USC win probability +0.7 pts (now 99%) (top driver: USC has the ball).
  5. TD · Q2 6:17: Caleb Williams pass complete to Brenden Rice for 13 yds for a TD (Denis Lynch KICK) — USC win probability +0.4 pts (now 100%) (top driver: USC has the ball).
Was that the right call?

Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works

Fourth downs
USC made the numbers' call on 4 of 4NEV made the numbers' call on 8 of 11
  1. Q1 9:08USC 4th & 18 at NEV 48, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 97.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    97.6%−0.2
    13% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    97.8%
    average punt
  2. Q1 7:39NEV 4th & 13 at NEV 7, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 2.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    2.3%−0.2
    18% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    2.5%
    average punt
  3. Q1 4:33NEV 4th & 9 at NEV 26, down 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 2.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    2.5%−0.1
    30% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    2.6%
    average punt
  4. Q1 0:29NEV 4th & 4 at NEV 31, down 14
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 2.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    2.6%−0.1
    48% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    2.6%
    average punt
  5. Q2 8:39NEV 4th & 22 at USC 36, down 21
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 1.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    1.4%−0.2
    8% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    1.6%
    42% to make
    Punt
    1.6%−<0.1
    average punt
  6. Q2 4:11NEV 4th & 6 at NEV 29, down 28
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 0.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    0.4%−0.1
    39% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    0.5%
    average punt
  7. Q2 3:22USC 4th & 14 at USC 30, up 28
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 99.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    99.3%−0.1
    18% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    99.4%
    average punt
  8. Q2 1:07NEV 4th & 9 at USC 39, down 28
    Close callWent for it · 0.5% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    0.5%−<0.1
    32% to convert
    Field goal
    0.5%
    36% to make
    Punt
    0.3%−0.1
    average punt
  9. Q2 0:14NEV 4th & 1 at USC 46, down 28
    Close callWent for it · 0.7% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    0.7%−<0.1
    70% to convert
    Field goal
    0.7%
    23% to make
    Punt
    0.6%−0.1
    average punt
  10. Q3 13:14NEV 4th & 1 at NEV 32, down 28
    Close callPunted · 0.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    0.4%
    71% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    0.4%−0.1
    average punt
  11. Q3 11:32USC 4th & 1 at USC 42, up 28
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 99.6% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    99.7%
    70% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    Punt
    99.6%−0.1
    average punt
  12. Q3 5:49NEV 4th & 1 at USC 42, down 35
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 0.2% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    0.2%
    70% to convert
    Field goal
    -0.0%−0.2
    30% to make
    Punt
    0.0%−0.2
    average punt
  13. Q3 3:19NEV 4th & 13 at USC 43, down 35
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 0.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    0.1%−0.1
    21% to convert
    Field goal
    0.1%−0.1
    28% to make
    PuntTheir call
    0.2%
    average punt
  14. Q4 13:30USC 4th & 17 at NEV 20, up 35
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 99.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    99.7%−0.2
    13% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    99.9%
    75% to make
    Punt
    99.5%−0.4
    average punt
  15. Q4 5:01NEV 4th & 4 at USC 32, down 45
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 0.1% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    0.1%
    48% to convert
    Field goal
    0.0%−<0.1
    51% to make
    Punt
    0.0%−<0.1
    average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
USC made the numbers' call on 9 of 9NEV made the numbers' call on 2 of 2
  1. Q1 12:45USC Touchdown, up 6 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    98.3%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    98.3%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  2. Q1 11:01NEV Touchdown, down 1 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    2.2%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    2.2%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  3. Q1 5:18USC Touchdown, up 6 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    97.5%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    97.5%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  4. Q1 2:13USC Touchdown, up 13 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    97.6%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    97.6%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  5. Q2 14:08USC Touchdown, up 20 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    98.5%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    98.5%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  6. Q2 6:17USC Touchdown, up 27 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    99.4%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    99.4%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  7. Q3 10:08USC Touchdown, up 34 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    99.9%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    99.9%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  8. Q4 12:05USC Touchdown, up 44 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    100.0%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    100.0%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  9. Q4 11:18NEV Touchdown, down 39 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    0.2%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    0.2%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  10. Q4 9:09USC Touchdown, up 44 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    100.0%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    100.0%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  11. Q4 4:02USC Touchdown, up 51 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    100.0%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    100.0%−<0.1
    45% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chart
USCDrive 1TD
5 plays · 79 yds · 2:1599% → 99%
Q1 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 21
+11
99.0%
Caleb Williams pass complete to Mario Williams for 11 yds to the USC 32 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 14:27
1ST & 10
OWN 32
+30
99.0%
Caleb Williams pass complete to Dorian Singer for 30 yds to the NEV 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 13:47
1ST & 10
OPP 38
+21
98.9%
Caleb Williams pass complete to Mario Williams for 21 yds to the NEV 17 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 13:15
1ST & 10
OPP 17
-5
98.9%
USC Penalty, False Start (-5 Yards) to the NEV 22Similar
Q1 12:45
1ST & 15
OPP 22
+22
98.9%
Caleb Williams pass complete to Zachariah Branch for 22 yds for a TD (Denis Lynch KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NEVDrive 2TD
4 plays · 85 yds · 1:391% → 1%
Q1 12:40
1ST & 10
OWN 15
+5
98.9%
Sean Dollars run for 5 yds to the NEV 20Similar
Q1 12:10
2ND & 5
OWN 20
+73
98.9%
Brendon Lewis pass complete to Spencer Curtis for 73 yds to the USC 7 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 11:36
1ST & GOAL
OPP 7
+4
98.8%
Sean Dollars run for 4 yds to the USC 3Similar
Q1 11:01
2ND & GOAL
OPP 3
+3
98.7%
Sean Dollars run for 3 yds for a TD (Brandon Talton KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USCDrive 3PUNT
6 plays · 32 yds · 1:4799% → 99%
Q1 10:55
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+30
98.7%
MarShawn Lloyd run for 30 yds to the 50 yard line for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 10:31
1ST & 10
50
+10
98.7%
Caleb Williams pass complete to Lake McRee for 10 yds to the NEV 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 10:04
1ST & 10
OPP 40
0
98.7%
Caleb Williams pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 9:58
2ND & 10
OPP 40
0
98.7%
Caleb Williams pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 9:54
3RD & 10
OPP 40
-8
98.6%
Caleb Williams sacked for a loss of 8 yards to the NEV 48Similar
Q1 9:08
4TH & 18
OPP 48
0
98.5%
Eddie Czaplicki punt for 38 ydsSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NEVDrive 4PUNT
4 plays · -3 yds · 1:222% → 2%
Q1 9:01
1ST & 10
OWN 10
+1
98.5%
Jamaal Bell run for 1 yd to the NEV 11Similar
Q1 8:27
2ND & 9
OWN 11
0
98.5%
Brendon Lewis pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 8:20
3RD & 9
OWN 11
-4
98.5%
Brendon Lewis sacked by Jamil Muhammad for a loss of 4 yards to the NEV 7Similar
Q1 7:39
4TH & 13
OWN 7
0
98.4%
Matt Freem punt for 47 yds, downed at the USC 46Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USCDrive 5TD
5 plays · 54 yds · 2:0998% → 98%
Q1 7:27
1ST & 10
OWN 46
+20
98.4%
Caleb Williams pass complete to Kyron Hudson for 20 yds to the NEV 34 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 7:04
1ST & 10
OPP 34
+5
98.4%
MarShawn Lloyd run for 5 yds to the NEV 29Similar
Q1 6:18
2ND & 5
OPP 29
+5
98.3%
Caleb Williams pass complete to MarShawn Lloyd for 5 yds to the NEV 24 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 5:18
1ST & 10
OPP 24
+24
98.4%
MarShawn Lloyd run for 24 yds for a TD (Denis Lynch KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NEVDrive 6PUNT
4 plays · 1 yds · 0:452% → 2%
Q1 5:18
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+1
98.3%
Sean Dollars run for 1 yd to the NEV 26Similar
Q1 4:48
2ND & 9
OWN 26
0
98.3%
Brendon Lewis pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 4:40
3RD & 9
OWN 26
0
98.3%
Brendon Lewis pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 4:33
4TH & 9
OWN 26
0
98.3%
Matt Freem punt for 46 yds , returns for no gain to the NEV 45Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USCDrive 7TD
4 plays · 45 yds · 2:0998% → 99%
Q1 4:22
1ST & 10
OPP 45
+16
98.3%
Caleb Williams pass complete to Brenden Rice for 16 yds to the NEV 29 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 3:34
1ST & 10
OPP 29
+12
98.3%
Austin Jones run for 12 yds to the NEV 17 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 2:43
1ST & 10
OPP 17
-10
98.2%
USC Penalty, Offensive Holding (-10 Yards) to the NEV 22Similar
Q1 2:13
2ND & 15
OPP 22
+22
98.5%
Caleb Williams pass complete to Tahj Washington for 22 yds for a TD (Denis Lynch KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NEVDrive 8PUNT
4 plays · 6 yds · 1:442% → 2%
Q1 2:13
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+8
98.3%
Brendon Lewis pass complete to Sean Dollars for 8 yds to the NEV 33Similar
Q1 1:50
2ND & 2
OWN 33
+1
98.2%
Sean Dollars run for 1 yd to the NEV 34Similar
Q1 1:13
3RD & 1
OWN 34
-3
98.2%
Ashton Hayes run for a loss of 3 yards to the NEV 31Similar
Q1 0:29
4TH & 4
OWN 31
0
98.2%
Matt Freem punt for 37 ydsSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USCDrive 9TD
4 plays · 68 yds · 1:1198% → 99%
Q1 0:19
1ST & 10
OWN 32
+7
98.3%
Austin Jones run for 7 yds to the USC 39Similar
Q2 15:00
2ND & 3
OWN 39
+46
98.3%
Caleb Williams run for 46 yds to the NEV 15 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 14:16
1ST & 10
OPP 15
0
98.3%
Caleb Williams pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 14:08
2ND & 10
OPP 15
+15
99.0%
Caleb Williams pass complete to Michael Jackson III for 15 yds for a TD (Denis Lynch KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NEVDrive 10MISSED FG
13 plays · 41 yds · 5:281% → 1%
Q2 14:02
1ST & 10
OWN 23
+7
98.8%
Brendon Lewis pass complete to Jamaal Bell for 7 yds to the NEV 30Similar
Q2 13:26
2ND & 3
OWN 30
+2
98.8%
Ashton Hayes run for 2 yds to the NEV 32Similar
Q2 12:43
3RD & 1
OWN 32
+26
98.8%
Brendon Lewis pass complete to Sean Dollars for 26 yds to the USC 42 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 12:04
1ST & 10
OPP 42
0
98.7%
Brendon Lewis pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 11:57
2ND & 10
OPP 42
+6
98.7%
Ashton Hayes run for 6 yds to the USC 36Similar
Q2 11:20
3RD & 4
OPP 36
-5
98.7%
Nevada Penalty, False Start (-5 Yards) to the USC 41Similar
Q2 11:00
3RD & 9
OPP 41
+17
98.8%
Brendon Lewis pass complete to Dalevon Campbell for 2 yds to the USC 39 for a 1ST down USC Penalty, Targeting on CURTIS, Tackett enforced (15 Yards) to the USC 24 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 10:25
1ST & 10
OPP 24
-13
98.6%
Brendon Lewis sacked by Shane Lee for a loss of 13 yards to the USC 37Similar
Q2 9:46
2ND & 23
OPP 37
-15
98.7%
Nevada Penalty, Personal Foul (-15 Yards) to the USC 47Similar
Q2 9:20
3RD & 33
OPP 47
+11
98.8%
Sean Dollars run for 11 yds to the USC 36Similar
Q2 8:39
4TH & 22
OPP 36
+54
98.9%
Brandon Talton 54 yd FG MISSEDSimilar
Q2 8:34
1ST & 10
OWN 36
-10
99.1%
(08:34) WILLIAMS, Caleb pass deep to the right complete for 20 yards to SINGER, Dorian caught at the NEV43 and advanced to the NEV44 (SEIULI, Aedan), clock 08:24. PENALTY USC Holding on PREGNON, Emmanuel enforced 10 yards from the USC36 to the USC26 [NHSG]. NO PLAY (replay the down).Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USCDrive 11TD
3 plays · 64 yds · 1:4499% → 100%
Q2 8:01
1ST & 20
OWN 26
+54
99.0%
Caleb Williams pass complete to MarShawn Lloyd for 54 yds to the NEV 20 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 7:09
1ST & 10
OPP 20
+7
99.1%
Caleb Williams pass complete to Dorian Singer for 7 yds to the NEV 13Similar
Q2 6:17
2ND & 3
OPP 13
+13
99.5%
Caleb Williams pass complete to Brenden Rice for 13 yds for a TD (Denis Lynch KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NEVDrive 12PUNT
4 plays · 4 yds · 2:060% → 0%
Q2 6:17
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+3
99.6%
Brendon Lewis run for 3 yds to the NEV 28Similar
Q2 5:36
2ND & 7
OWN 28
0
99.6%
Brendon Lewis pass complete to Jamaal Bell for no gain to the NEV 28Similar
Q2 5:06
3RD & 7
OWN 28
+1
99.6%
Brendon Lewis run for 1 yd to the NEV 29Similar
Q2 4:11
4TH & 6
OWN 29
0
99.7%
Matt Freem punt for 37 yds, downed at the USC 34Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USCDrive 13PUNT
4 plays · -4 yds · 0:37100% → 100%
Q2 3:59
1ST & 10
OWN 34
-4
99.6%
Mario Williams run for a loss of 4 yards to the USC 30Similar
Q2 3:36
2ND & 14
OWN 30
0
99.6%
Caleb Williams pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 3:29
3RD & 14
OWN 30
0
99.5%
Caleb Williams pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 3:22
4TH & 14
OWN 30
0
99.5%
Eddie Czaplicki punt for 47 yds, downed at the NEV 23Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NEVDrive 14DOWNS
9 plays · 38 yds · 2:040% → 0%
Q2 3:11
1ST & 10
OWN 23
+1
99.6%
Sean Dollars run for 1 yd to the NEV 24Similar
Q2 2:39
2ND & 9
OWN 24
+7
99.7%
Brendon Lewis pass complete to Jamaal Bell for 7 yds to the NEV 31Similar
Q2 2:04
3RD & 2
OWN 31
+11
99.6%
Brendon Lewis run for 11 yds to the NEV 42 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 1:52
1ST & 10
OWN 42
0
99.7%
Brendon Lewis pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 1:45
2ND & 10
OWN 42
+15
99.7%
USC Penalty, Roughing the Passer on SULLIVAN, Jack enforced (15 Yards) to the USC 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 1:43
1ST & 10
OPP 40
+1
99.7%
Brendon Lewis pass complete to Sean Dollars for 1 yd to the USC 39Similar
Q2 1:17
2ND & 9
OPP 39
0
99.7%
Brendon Lewis pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 1:13
3RD & 9
OPP 39
0
99.7%
Brendon Lewis pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 1:07
4TH & 9
OPP 39
0
99.7%
Brendon Lewis pass incompleteSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USCDrive 15FUMBLE
5 plays · 16 yds · 0:25100% → 100%
Q2 1:02
1ST & 10
OWN 39
+5
99.7%
Quinten Joyner run for 5 yds to the USC 44Similar
Q2 0:56
2ND & 5
OWN 44
+7
99.7%
Caleb Williams pass complete to Quinten Joyner for 7 yds to the NEV 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:44
1ST & 10
OPP 49
+7
99.7%
Quinten Joyner run for 7 yds to the NEV 42Similar
Q2 0:37
2ND & 3
OPP 42
-3
99.7%
run for a loss of 3 yards to the NEV 45 fumbled, recovered by NEV Drue WattsSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NEVDrive 16MISSED FG
8 plays · 19 yds · 0:300% → 0%
Q2 0:34
1ST & 10
OWN 45
0
99.7%
Brendon Lewis pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 0:27
2ND & 10
OWN 45
+7
99.7%
Brendon Lewis pass complete to Jamaal Bell for 7 yds to the USC 48Similar
Q2 0:20
3RD & 3
OPP 48
+2
99.7%
Brendon Lewis pass complete to Ashton Hayes for 2 yds to the USC 46Similar
Q2 0:14
4TH & 1
OPP 46
+10
99.6%
Brendon Lewis pass complete to Keleki Latu for 10 yds to the USC 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:10
1ST & 10
OPP 36
0
99.6%
Brendon Lewis pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 0:04
2ND & 10
OPP 36
+54
99.7%
Brandon Talton 54 yd FG MISSEDSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NEVDrive 17PUNT
4 plays · 9 yds · 1:460% → 0%
Q3 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 23
+8
99.6%
Jamaal Bell run for 8 yds to the NEV 31Similar
Q3 14:28
2ND & 2
OWN 31
+1
99.5%
Ashton Hayes run for 1 yd to the NEV 32Similar
Q3 13:55
3RD & 1
OWN 32
0
99.7%
Ashton Hayes run for no gain to the NEV 32Similar
Q3 13:14
4TH & 1
OWN 32
0
99.7%
Matt Freem punt for 35 ydsSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USCDrive 18TD
8 plays · 67 yds · 2:58100% → 100%
Q3 13:06
1ST & 15
OWN 28
+2
99.7%
MarShawn Lloyd run for 2 yds to the USC 30Similar
Q3 13:06
1ST & 10
OWN 33
-5
99.7%
USC Penalty, False Start (Justin Dedich) to the USC 28Similar
Q3 12:46
2ND & 13
OWN 30
+4
99.7%
Caleb Williams run for 4 yds to the USC 34Similar
Q3 12:07
3RD & 9
OWN 34
+8
99.8%
Caleb Williams pass complete to Brenden Rice for 8 yds to the USC 42Similar
Q3 11:32
4TH & 1
OWN 42
+8
99.7%
MarShawn Lloyd run for 8 yds to the 50 yard line for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 11:10
1ST & 10
50
0
99.8%
Caleb Williams pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 11:00
2ND & 10
50
+5
99.8%
MarShawn Lloyd run for 5 yds to the NEV 45Similar
Q3 10:08
3RD & 5
OPP 45
+45
99.8%
Caleb Williams pass complete to Tahj Washington for 45 yds for a TD (Denis Lynch KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NEVDrive 19PUNT
13 plays · 36 yds · 6:430% → 0%
Q3 10:02
1ST & 10
OWN 21
+2
99.8%
Ashton Hayes run for 2 yds to the NEV 23Similar
Q3 9:30
2ND & 8
OWN 23
0
99.8%
Brendon Lewis pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 9:22
3RD & 8
OWN 23
+9
99.8%
Brendon Lewis pass complete to Spencer Curtis for 9 yds to the NEV 32 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 8:50
1ST & 10
OWN 32
+1
99.8%
Brendon Lewis pass complete to Spencer Curtis for 1 yd to the NEV 33Similar
Q3 8:12
2ND & 9
OWN 33
+16
99.8%
Brendon Lewis pass complete to Jamaal Bell for 16 yds to the NEV 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 7:34
1ST & 10
OWN 49
+8
99.8%
Ashton Hayes run for 8 yds to the USC 43Similar
Q3 6:57
2ND & 2
OPP 43
-2
99.8%
Ashton Hayes run for a loss of 2 yards to the USC 45Similar
Q3 6:25
3RD & 4
OPP 45
+3
99.9%
Brendon Lewis pass complete to Ashton Hayes for 3 yds to the USC 42Similar
Q3 5:49
4TH & 1
OPP 42
+2
99.9%
Sean Dollars run for 2 yds to the USC 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 4:54
1ST & 10
OPP 40
-8
99.9%
Brendon Lewis sacked for a loss of 8 yards to the USC 48Similar
Q3 4:23
2ND & 18
OPP 48
+1
99.9%
Ashton Hayes run for 1 yd to the USC 47Similar
Q3 3:48
3RD & 17
OPP 47
+4
99.9%
Brendon Lewis run for 4 yds to the USC 43Similar
Q3 3:19
4TH & 13
OPP 43
0
99.9%
Matt Freem punt for 42 yds, downed at the USC 1Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USCDrive 20FG
12 plays · 79 yds · 4:42100% → 100%
Q3 3:12
1ST & 10
OWN 1
+2
99.9%
MarShawn Lloyd run for 2 yds to the USC 3Similar
Q3 2:36
2ND & 8
OWN 3
+8
99.9%
Caleb Williams pass complete to Tahj Washington for 8 yds to the USC 11 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 2:23
1ST & 10
OWN 11
+23
99.9%
Darwin Barlow run for 23 yds to the USC 34 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 1:50
1ST & 10
OWN 34
+10
99.9%
Miller Moss pass complete to Darwin Barlow for 10 yds to the USC 44 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 1:11
1ST & 10
OWN 44
0
99.9%
Miller Moss pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 1:03
2ND & 10
OWN 44
+29
99.9%
Miller Moss pass complete to Mario Williams for 29 yds to the NEV 27 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 0:28
1ST & 10
OPP 13
-10
99.9%
(00:28) MOSS, Miller pass to the left complete for 7 yards to WILLIAMS, Mario caught at the NEV16 and advanced to the NEV6 (WATTS, Drue), out of bounds, clock 00:22. PENALTY USC Holding on BRANCH, Zachariah enforced 10 yards from the NEV13 to the NEV23 [NHSG]. NO PLAY (replay the down).Similar
Q4 15:00
1ST & 20
OPP 23
-5
99.9%
USC Penalty, False Start (-5 Yards) to the NEV 28Similar
Q4 15:00
1ST & 25
OPP 28
+6
99.9%
Quinten Joyner run for 6 yds to the NEV 22Similar
Q4 14:24
2ND & 19
OPP 22
0
99.9%
Miller Moss pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 14:17
3RD & 19
OPP 22
+2
99.9%
Miller Moss pass complete to Makai Lemon for 2 yds to the NEV 20Similar
Q4 13:30
4TH & 17
OPP 20
+37
99.9%
Denis Lynch 37 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NEVDrive 21FUMBLE RETURN TD
3 plays · -2 yds · 1:250% → 0%
Q4 13:30
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+6
99.9%
Brendon Lewis pass complete to Jamaal Bell for 6 yds to the NEV 31Similar
Q4 12:50
2ND & 4
OWN 31
+1
99.9%
Brendon Lewis pass complete to Jamaal Bell for 1 yd to the NEV 32Similar
Q4 12:05
3RD & 3
OWN 32
+23
99.9%
Stanley Ta'ufo'ou 23 Yd Fumble Return (Denis Lynch Kick)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NEVDrive 22TD
2 plays · 75 yds · 0:470% → 0%
Q4 12:05
1ST & 10
OWN 25
-2
99.9%
Cross Patton run for a loss of 2 yards to the NEV 23Similar
Q4 11:18
2ND & 12
OWN 23
+77
99.9%
AJ Bianco pass complete to Jamaal Bell for 77 yds for a TD (Brandon Talton KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USCDrive 23TD
5 plays · 69 yds · 2:01100% → 100%
Q4 11:10
1ST & 10
OWN 31
+6
99.9%
Miller Moss pass complete to Makai Lemon for 6 yds to the USC 37Similar
Q4 10:40
2ND & 4
OWN 37
+11
99.9%
Miller Moss pass complete to Ja'Kobi Lane for 11 yds to the USC 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 10:04
1ST & 10
OWN 48
+5
99.9%
Miller Moss pass complete to Makai Lemon for 5 yds to the NEV 47Similar
Q4 9:23
2ND & 5
OPP 47
0
99.9%
Miller Moss pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 9:09
3RD & 5
OPP 47
+47
99.9%
Quinten Joyner run for 47 yds for a TD (Denis Lynch KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NEVDrive 24DOWNS
7 plays · 43 yds · 4:080% → 0%
Q4 9:09
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+1
100.0%
AJ Bianco pass complete to John Jackson III for 1 yd to the NEV 26Similar
Q4 8:30
2ND & 9
OWN 26
+3
100.0%
Cross Patton run for 3 yds to the NEV 29Similar
Q4 7:45
3RD & 6
OWN 29
+33
100.0%
AJ Bianco pass complete to John Jackson III for 33 yds to the USC 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 7:06
1ST & 10
OPP 38
0
100.0%
Cross Patton run for no gain to the USC 38Similar
Q4 6:23
2ND & 10
OPP 38
+3
100.0%
Cross Patton run for 3 yds to the USC 35Similar
Q4 5:45
3RD & 7
OPP 35
+3
100.0%
AJ Bianco run for 3 yds to the USC 32Similar
Q4 5:01
4TH & 4
OPP 32
0
100.0%
AJ Bianco pass incompleteSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USCDrive 25TD
2 plays · 68 yds · 0:54100% → 100%
Q4 4:56
1ST & 10
OWN 32
-3
99.9%
Darwin Barlow run for a loss of 3 yards to the USC 29Similar
Q4 4:02
2ND & 13
OWN 29
+71
100.0%
Miller Moss pass complete to Duce Robinson for 71 yds for a TD (Tyler Robles KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NEVDrive 26END OF GAME
7 plays · 18 yds · 3:210% → 0%
Q4 4:02
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+2
100.0%
Cross Patton run for 2 yds to the NEV 27Similar
Q4 3:25
2ND & 8
OWN 27
+2
100.0%
Cross Patton run for 2 yds to the NEV 29Similar
Q4 2:45
3RD & 6
OWN 29
+18
100.0%
AJ Bianco pass complete to John Jackson III for 18 yds to the NEV 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 2:12
1ST & 10
OWN 47
+4
100.0%
Cross Patton run for 4 yds to the USC 49Similar
Q4 1:31
2ND & 6
OPP 49
-1
100.0%
Cross Patton run for a loss of 1 yard to the 50 yard lineSimilar
Q4 0:41
3RD & 7
50
-7
100.0%
AJ Bianco sacked by De'jon Benton for a loss of 7 yards to the NEV 43Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
TD · Q2 14:08
Caleb Williams pass complete to Michael Jackson III for 15 yds for a TD (Denis Lynch KICK)
+0.7
TD · Q2 6:17
Caleb Williams pass complete to Brenden Rice for 13 yds for a TD (Denis Lynch KICK)
+0.4
TD · Q1 2:13
Caleb Williams pass complete to Tahj Washington for 22 yds for a TD (Denis Lynch KICK)
+0.3
YardLine · model v10Model estimate - not betting advice · Data provided by CollegeFootballData.com