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CAL

California 58 at North Texas 21

UNT
2023 · Week 1 · Sep 2, 2023 · DATCU Stadium
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Win probability · UNT
modelUNT aheadCAL aheadconfidence bandkey playUNT scoreCAL score
0%25%50%75%100%Q1Q2Q3Q4TDTDTDTDTDTDTDTDTDTDTDTDFGEnd of Game
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q4 1:33 · Michael Luckhurst 47 yd FG MISSED
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Home team on offenseScore differentialPregame priorGarbage-time factorScore diff ÷ offense timeoutsScore diff ÷ seconds remaining
+58.5+29.30−29.3−58.5Q1Q2Q3Q4Play 171Home team on offense−58.0Score differential−39.6Pregame prior−0.6Garbage-time factor−21.8Score diff ÷ offense timeouts+3.2Score diff ÷ seconds remaining−9.8
This game in five plays
  1. TD · Q2 14:33: Stone Earle pass complete to Ja'Mori Maclin for 59 yds for a TD (Noah Rauschenberg KICK) — UNT win probability +6.7 pts (now 36%) (top driver: UNT has the ball).
  2. TD · Q2 7:30: Isaiah Ifanse run for 26 yds for a TD (Michael Luckhurst KICK) — CAL win probability +7.2 pts (now 73%) (top driver: CAL has the ball).
  3. TD · Q2 1:47: Stone Earle pass complete to Xzavior Kautai for 12 yds for a TD (Noah Rauschenberg KICK) — UNT win probability +10.0 pts (now 35%) (top driver: Game still competitive relative to time left).
  4. TD · Q2 0:07: Isaiah Ifanse 8 Yd Run (Two-Point Pass Conversion Failed) — CAL win probability +6.3 pts (now 82%) (top driver: CAL has the ball).
  5. TD · Q3 11:24: Isaiah Ifanse run for 1 yd for a TD (Ben Finley pass to Jack Endries for Two-Point Conversion) — CAL win probability +12.2 pts (now 94%) (top driver: CAL has the ball).
Was that the right call?

Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works

Fourth downs
UNT made the numbers' call on 7 of 8CAL made the numbers' call on 8 of 8
  1. Q1 13:39UNT 4th & 18 at UNT 17, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 29.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    29.3%−0.2
    12% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    29.5%
    average punt
  2. Q1 8:39CAL 4th & 2 at CAL 33, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 68.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    68.3%−<0.1
    57% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    68.3%
    average punt
  3. Q1 6:54UNT 4th & 4 at UNT 37, tied
    Close callPunted · 32.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    32.4%
    48% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    32.3%−<0.1
    average punt
  4. Q1 3:58CAL 4th & 9 at UNT 15, tied
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 66.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    66.2%−0.3
    29% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    66.4%
    83% to make
    Punt
    64.8%−1.6
    average punt
  5. Q2 12:42CAL 4th & 7 at CAL 41, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 63.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    63.3%−0.4
    37% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    63.7%
    average punt
  6. Q2 9:51UNT 4th & 20 at UNT 19, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 37.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    35.9%−1.4
    9% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    37.3%
    average punt
  7. Q2 7:30CAL 4th & 2 at UNT 26, tied
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 63.9% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    63.9%
    57% to convert
    Field goal
    63.1%−0.8
    64% to make
    Punt
    59.4%−4.6
    average punt
  8. Q2 6:11UNT 4th & 8 at UNT 32, down 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 28.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    28.0%−1.4
    33% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    29.4%
    average punt
  9. Q2 4:34UNT 4th & 5 at UNT 38, down 13
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 24.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    23.7%−0.2
    41% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    23.9%
    average punt
  10. Q2 0:47CAL 4th & 1 at UNT 45, up 6
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 71.3% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    71.5%
    70% to convert
    Field goal
    70.0%−1.5
    25% to make
    Punt
    70.1%−1.4
    average punt
  11. Q3 11:17CAL 4th & 2 at UNT 9, up 20
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 92.0% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    91.8%
    54% to convert
    Field goal
    90.8%−0.9
    89% to make
    Punt
    84.9%−6.8
    average punt
  12. Q3 6:15UNT 4th & 13 at UNT 22, down 27
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 2.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    1.6%−1.0
    19% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    2.6%
    average punt
  13. Q4 14:56UNT 4th & 7 at CAL 43, down 27
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 2.6% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    2.7%
    37% to convert
    Field goal
    2.4%−0.3
    28% to make
    Punt
    2.6%−0.1
    average punt
  14. Q4 6:27CAL 4th & 9 at UNT 14, up 34
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 99.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    99.6%−0.1
    29% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    99.7%
    84% to make
    Punt
    99.3%−0.4
    average punt
  15. Q4 4:56UNT 4th & 3 at UNT 25, down 37
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 0.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    0.2%−<0.1
    51% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    0.2%
    average punt
  16. Q4 1:33CAL 4th & 9 at UNT 30, up 37
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 99.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    99.8%−<0.1
    32% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    99.9%
    56% to make
    Punt
    99.7%−0.1
    average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
UNT made the numbers' call on 3 of 3CAL made the numbers' call on 6 of 8
  1. Q1 12:53CAL Touchdown, up 6 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    70.5%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    70.5%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  2. Q1 11:04UNT Touchdown, down 1 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    30.9%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    30.9%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  3. Q1 1:04CAL Touchdown, up 6 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    68.7%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    68.6%−0.1
    45% to convert
  4. Q2 14:33UNT Touchdown, down 1 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    34.9%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    34.9%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  5. Q2 7:30CAL Touchdown, up 6 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    69.3%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    69.2%−0.1
    45% to convert
  6. Q2 5:42CAL Touchdown, up 13 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · missed
    KickTheir call
    76.5%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    76.5%−0.1
    45% to convert
  7. Q2 1:47UNT Touchdown, down 7 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    28.7%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    28.6%−0.1
    45% to convert
  8. Q2 0:07CAL Touchdown, up 12 before the try
    Close callWent for two · failed
    Kick
    78.2%
    97% to make
    Go for twoTheir call
    78.1%−0.1
    45% to convert
  9. Q3 11:24CAL Touchdown, up 18 before the try
    Close callWent for two · converted
    Kick
    87.5%
    97% to make
    Go for twoTheir call
    87.5%−0.1
    45% to convert
  10. Q3 8:02CAL Touchdown, up 26 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    98.8%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    98.7%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  11. Q4 11:42CAL Touchdown, up 33 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    99.8%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    99.7%−<0.1
    45% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chart
UNTDrive 1PUNT
5 plays · -8 yds · 1:2127% → 28%
Q1 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 25
-2
27.4%
Ikaika Ragsdale run for a loss of 2 yards to the UNT 23Similar
Q1 15:00
2ND & 12
OWN 23
-10
27.4%
QB Keeper EARLE, Stone rush up the middle for a gain of 5 yards to the UNT28 (ELARMS-ORR, Kaleb). PENALTY UNT Holding on BLAIR, Gabe enforced 10 yards from the UNT23 to the UNT13 [NHSG]. NO PLAY (replay the down).Similar
Q1 15:00
2ND & 22
OWN 13
0
27.4%
Stone Earle pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 15:00
3RD & 22
OWN 13
+4
27.4%
Ikaika Ragsdale run for 4 yds to the UNT 17Similar
Q1 13:39
4TH & 18
OWN 17
0
27.9%
Sawyer Evans punt for 48 ydsSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CALDrive 2TD
3 plays · 65 yds · 0:4672% → 73%
Q1 13:39
1ST & 10
OWN 35
+41
28.0%
Jaydn Ott run for 41 yds to the UNT 24 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 13:39
1ST & 10
OPP 24
+1
27.8%
Jaydn Ott run for 1 yd to the UNT 23Similar
Q1 12:53
2ND & 9
OPP 23
+23
27.5%
Sam Jackson V pass complete to Jeremiah Hunter for 23 yds for a TD (Michael Luckhurst KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UNTDrive 3TD
5 plays · 75 yds · 1:4928% → 30%
Q1 12:53
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+9
27.7%
Stone Earle pass complete to Roderic Burns for 9 yds to the UNT 34Similar
Q1 12:53
2ND & 1
OWN 34
+3
27.8%
Oscar Adaway III run for 3 yds to the UNT 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 12:53
1ST & 10
OWN 37
+58
27.8%
Stone Earle pass complete to Ja'Mori Maclin for 58 yds to the CAL 5 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 12:53
1ST & GOAL
OPP 5
+2
28.0%
Oscar Adaway III run for 2 yds to the CAL 3Similar
Q1 11:04
2ND & GOAL
OPP 3
+3
29.8%
Stone Earle pass complete to Ja'Mori Maclin for 3 yds for a TD (Noah Rauschenberg KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CALDrive 4PUNT
5 plays · 8 yds · 2:2571% → 70%
Q1 11:04
1ST & 10
OWN 25
-3
29.2%
Jaydn Ott run for a loss of 3 yards to the CAL 22Similar
Q1 11:04
2ND & 13
OWN 22
+5
29.2%
Sam Jackson V run for 5 yds to the CAL 27Similar
Q1 11:04
3RD & 8
OWN 27
-5
29.3%
California Penalty, False Start (-5 Yards) to the CAL 22Similar
Q1 11:04
3RD & 13
OWN 22
+11
29.4%
Sam Jackson V pass complete to Monroe Young for 11 yds to the CAL 33Similar
Q1 8:39
4TH & 2
OWN 33
0
30.4%
Lachlan Wilson punt for 36 ydsSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UNTDrive 5PUNT
4 plays · 6 yds · 1:4530% → 31%
Q1 8:39
1ST & 10
OWN 31
0
30.4%
Stone Earle pass complete to Roderic Burns for no gain to the UNT 31Similar
Q1 8:39
2ND & 10
OWN 31
+5
30.3%
Stone Earle pass complete to Ayo Adeyi for 5 yds to the UNT 36Similar
Q1 8:39
3RD & 5
OWN 36
+1
30.3%
Stone Earle run for 1 yd to the UNT 37Similar
Q1 6:54
4TH & 4
OWN 37
0
30.9%
Adam Jacklin punt for 34 yds, downed at the CAL 29Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CALDrive 6MISSED FG
7 plays · 56 yds · 2:5669% → 68%
Q1 6:54
1ST & 10
OWN 29
+38
30.9%
Jaydn Ott run for 38 yds to the UNT 33 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 6:54
1ST & 10
OPP 33
+4
30.1%
Jaydn Ott run for 4 yds to the UNT 29Similar
Q1 6:54
2ND & 6
OPP 29
+13
30.0%
Sam Jackson V run for 13 yds to the UNT 16 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 6:54
1ST & 10
OPP 16
0
30.0%
Sam Jackson V pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 6:54
2ND & 10
OPP 16
+2
30.0%
Jaydn Ott run for 2 yds to the UNT 14Similar
Q1 6:54
3RD & 8
OPP 14
-1
30.3%
Sam Jackson V pass complete to Jeremiah Hunter for a loss of 1 yard to the UNT 15Similar
Q1 3:58
4TH & 9
OPP 15
+32
32.1%
Michael Luckhurst 32 yd FG MISSEDSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UNTDrive 7INT
5 plays · 15 yds · 1:1533% → 33%
Q1 3:58
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+2
32.5%
Stone Earle pass complete to Ja'Mori Maclin for 2 yds to the UNT 22Similar
Q1 3:58
2ND & 8
OWN 22
+6
32.5%
Isaiah Johnson run for 6 yds to the UNT 28Similar
Q1 3:58
3RD & 2
OWN 28
+7
32.3%
Isaiah Johnson run for 7 yds to the UNT 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 3:58
1ST & 10
OWN 35
0
32.7%
Stone Earle pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 2:43
2ND & 10
OWN 35
0
33.3%
Stone Earle pass interceptedSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CALDrive 8TD
4 plays · 14 yds · 1:3969% → 73%
Q1 2:43
1ST & 10
OPP 14
+4
31.4%
Jaydn Ott run for 4 yds to the UNT 10Similar
Q1 2:43
2ND & 6
OPP 10
+7
31.4%
Jaydn Ott run for 7 yds to the UNT 3 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 2:43
1ST & GOAL
OPP 3
-1
31.4%
Jaydn Ott run for a loss of 1 yard to the UNT 4Similar
Q1 1:04
2ND & GOAL
OPP 4
+4
27.4%
Jaydn Ott run for 4 yds for a TD (Michael Luckhurst KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UNTDrive 9TD
5 plays · 75 yds · 1:3129% → 36%
Q1 1:04
1ST & 10
OWN 25
-4
29.0%
Stone Earle run for a loss of 4 yards to the UNT 21Similar
Q1 1:04
2ND & 14
OWN 21
+13
28.9%
Stone Earle pass complete to Roderic Burns for 13 yds to the UNT 34Similar
Q1 0:00
3RD & 1
OWN 34
+2
29.5%
Isaiah Johnson run for 2 yds to the UNT 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 36
+5
29.5%
Ayo Adeyi run for 5 yds to the UNT 41Similar
Q2 14:33
2ND & 5
OWN 41
+59
36.2%
Stone Earle pass complete to Ja'Mori Maclin for 59 yds for a TD (Noah Rauschenberg KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CALDrive 10PUNT
7 plays · 16 yds · 1:5167% → 65%
Q2 14:33
2ND & 4
OWN 31
0
33.4%
Sam Jackson V run for no gain to the CAL 31Similar
Q2 14:33
3RD & 4
OWN 31
+7
34.1%
Ben Finley pass complete to Monroe Young for 7 yds to the CAL 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 14:33
1ST & 10
OWN 38
0
33.3%
Ben Finley pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 14:33
2ND & 10
OWN 38
+3
33.4%
Ben Finley pass complete to Isaiah Ifanse for 3 yds to the CAL 41Similar
Q2 14:33
3RD & 7
OWN 41
0
33.6%
Ben Finley pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 14:33
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+6
34.0%
Jaydn Ott run for 6 yds to the CAL 31Similar
Q2 12:42
4TH & 7
OWN 41
0
35.4%
Lachlan Wilson punt for 44 ydsSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UNTDrive 11PUNT
7 plays · 4 yds · 2:5136% → 36%
Q2 12:42
1ST & 10
OWN 15
+3
35.8%
Oscar Adaway III run for 3 yds to the UNT 18Similar
Q2 12:42
2ND & 7
OWN 18
+11
35.9%
Stone Earle pass complete to Kaylon Horton for 11 yds to the UNT 29 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 12:42
1ST & 10
OWN 29
-10
36.1%
EARLE, Stone scrambles up the middle for no gain to the UNT29 (ANTZOULATOS, Blake). PENALTY UNT Holding on CARROLL, Daizion enforced 10 yards from the UNT29 to the UNT19 [NHSG]. NO PLAY (replay the down).Similar
Q2 11:26
1ST & 20
OWN 19
+3
36.5%
Oscar Adaway III run for 3 yds to the UNT 22Similar
Q2 11:26
2ND & 17
OWN 22
+7
36.4%
Stone Earle run for 7 yds to the UNT 29Similar
Q2 11:26
3RD & 10
OWN 29
-10
35.7%
Stone Earle sacked by Jackson Sirmon for a loss of 10 yards to the UNT 19Similar
Q2 9:51
4TH & 20
OWN 19
0
36.0%
Sawyer Evans punt for 25 ydsSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CALDrive 12TD
7 plays · 44 yds · 2:2166% → 73%
Q2 9:51
1ST & 10
OPP 44
0
34.0%
Ben Finley pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 9:51
2ND & 10
OPP 44
+7
34.0%
Isaiah Ifanse run for 7 yds to the UNT 37Similar
Q2 9:51
3RD & 3
OPP 37
+3
34.0%
Isaiah Ifanse run for 3 yds to the UNT 34 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 9:51
1ST & 10
OPP 34
0
33.5%
Ben Finley pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 8:51
2ND & 10
OPP 34
+4
33.9%
Isaiah Ifanse run for 4 yds to the UNT 30Similar
Q2 8:51
3RD & 6
OPP 30
+4
34.6%
Ben Finley pass complete to Taj Davis for 4 yds to the UNT 26Similar
Q2 7:30
4TH & 2
OPP 26
+26
27.4%
Isaiah Ifanse run for 26 yds for a TD (Michael Luckhurst KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UNTDrive 13PUNT
4 plays · 2 yds · 1:1329% → 28%
Q2 7:24
1ST & 10
OWN 30
+5
29.0%
Stone Earle pass complete to Roderic Burns for 5 yds to the UNT 35Similar
Q2 7:24
2ND & 5
OWN 35
-3
29.7%
Stone Earle pass complete to Jordan Smart for a loss of 3 yards to the UNT 32Similar
Q2 7:24
3RD & 8
OWN 32
0
28.3%
Stone Earle pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 6:11
4TH & 8
OWN 32
0
27.7%
Adam Jacklin punt for 43 yds, downed at the CAL 25Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CALDrive 14TD
2 plays · 75 yds · 0:2972% → 77%
Q2 6:11
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+9
28.0%
Jaydn Ott run for 9 yds to the CAL 34Similar
Q2 5:42
2ND & 1
OWN 34
+66
23.3%
Jaydn Ott run for 66 yds for a TD (Michael Luckhurst PAT BLOCKED)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UNTDrive 15PUNT
4 plays · 5 yds · 1:0224% → 23%
Q2 5:36
1ST & 10
OWN 33
0
23.8%
Stone Earle pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 5:36
2ND & 10
OWN 33
+5
23.7%
Isaiah Johnson run for 5 yds to the UNT 38Similar
Q2 5:36
3RD & 5
OWN 38
0
23.8%
Stone Earle pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 4:34
4TH & 5
OWN 38
0
23.3%
Adam Jacklin punt for 41 ydsSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CALDrive 16FUMBLE
6 plays · 3 yds · 1:4376% → 78%
Q2 4:34
1ST & 10
OWN 21
+3
23.6%
Ben Finley pass complete to Brian Hightower for 3 yds to the CAL 24Similar
Q2 4:34
2ND & 7
OWN 24
+6
23.5%
Ben Finley pass complete to Jeremiah Hunter for 6 yds to the CAL 30Similar
Q2 4:34
3RD & 1
OWN 30
-5
23.6%
California Penalty, False Start (-5 Yards) to the CAL 25Similar
Q2 4:34
3RD & 6
OWN 25
+11
24.0%
Ben Finley pass complete to Monroe Young for 11 yds to the CAL 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 4:34
1ST & 10
OWN 36
0
23.1%
Ben Finley pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 2:51
2ND & 10
OWN 36
-12
22.3%
Jaydn Ott run for a loss of 12 yards to the CAL 24 Jaydn Ott fumbled, recovered by UNT Logan WilsonSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UNTDrive 17TD
3 plays · 24 yds · 1:0425% → 35%
Q2 2:51
1ST & 10
OPP 24
+4
25.3%
Stone Earle run for 4 yds to the CAL 20Similar
Q2 2:51
2ND & 6
OPP 20
+8
25.3%
Isaiah Johnson run for 8 yds to the CAL 12 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 1:47
1ST & 10
OPP 12
+12
35.3%
Stone Earle pass complete to Xzavior Kautai for 12 yds for a TD (Noah Rauschenberg KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CALDrive 18TD
13 plays · 75 yds · 1:3272% → 82%
Q2 1:39
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+1
28.2%
Isaiah Ifanse run for 1 yd to the CAL 26Similar
Q2 1:39
2ND & 9
OWN 26
+20
28.3%
Ben Finley pass complete to Taj Davis for 20 yds to the CAL 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 1:39
1ST & 10
OWN 46
+7
26.3%
Ben Finley pass complete to Jeremiah Hunter for 7 yds to the UNT 47Similar
Q2 0:59
2ND & 3
OPP 47
+2
25.9%
Isaiah Ifanse run for 2 yds to the UNT 45Similar
Q2 0:59
3RD & 1
OPP 45
0
26.1%
Ben Finley pass complete to Isaiah Ifanse for no gain to the UNT 45Similar
Q2 0:47
4TH & 1
OPP 45
+2
27.4%
Isaiah Ifanse run for 2 yds to the UNT 43 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:31
1ST & 10
OPP 43
+34
26.0%
Ben Finley pass complete to Monroe Young for 34 yds to the UNT 9 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:18
1ST & GOAL
OPP 9
+1
24.5%
Ben Finley run for 1 yd to the UNT 8Similar
Q2 0:07
2ND & GOAL
OPP 8
+8
18.1%
Isaiah Ifanse 8 Yd Run (Two-Point Pass Conversion Failed)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UNTDrive 19END OF HALF
1 play · -2 yds · 0:0021% → 21%
Q2 0:00
1ST & 10
OWN 30
0
21.3%
[NHSG] Kneel down by EARLE, Stone at UNT28 (team loss of 2), clock 00:00.Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CALDrive 20TD
10 plays · 75 yds · 3:3678% → 94%
Q3 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+14
22.5%
Ben Finley pass complete to Jeremiah Hunter for 14 yds to the CAL 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 39
+3
21.5%
Jaydn Ott run for 3 yds to the CAL 42Similar
Q3 15:00
2ND & 7
OWN 42
+3
21.5%
Jaydn Ott run for 3 yds to the CAL 45Similar
Q3 15:00
3RD & 4
OWN 45
+13
21.7%
Ben Finley pass complete to Jaydn Ott for 13 yds to the UNT 42 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 42
+10
21.4%
Ben Finley pass complete to Brian Hightower for 10 yds to the UNT 32 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 12:25
1ST & 10
OPP 32
+13
18.8%
Jaydn Ott run for 13 yds to the UNT 19 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 12:25
1ST & 10
OPP 19
+18
18.6%
Ben Finley pass complete to Isaiah Ifanse for 18 yds to the UNT 1 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 12:25
1ST & GOAL
OPP 1
0
18.4%
Isaiah Ifanse run for no gain to the UNT 1Similar
Q3 11:24
2ND & GOAL
OPP 1
+1
6.2%
Isaiah Ifanse run for 1 yd for a TD (Ben Finley pass to Jack Endries for Two-Point Conversion)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UNTDrive 21INT
1 play · 0 yds · 0:0010% → 10%
Q3 11:17
1ST & 10
OWN 25
0
10.4%
Stone Earle pass interceptedSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CALDrive 22TD
8 plays · 32 yds · 3:1593% → 98%
Q3 11:17
1ST & 10
OPP 32
+15
6.8%
Ben Finley pass complete to Jeremiah Hunter for 15 yds to the UNT 17 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 11:17
1ST & 10
OPP 17
0
6.6%
Jaydn Ott run for no gain to the UNT 17Similar
Q3 11:17
2ND & 10
OPP 17
0
6.7%
Ben Finley pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 11:17
3RD & 10
OPP 17
+8
7.0%
Ben Finley pass complete to Taj Davis for 8 yds to the UNT 9Similar
Q3 11:17
4TH & 2
OPP 9
+4
7.3%
Jaydn Ott run for 4 yds to the UNT 5 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 11:17
1ST & GOAL
OPP 5
-1
6.6%
Jaydn Ott run for a loss of 1 yard to the UNT 6Similar
Q3 11:17
2ND & GOAL
OPP 6
+2
6.6%
Ben Finley run for 2 yds to the UNT 4Similar
Q3 8:02
3RD & GOAL
OPP 4
+4
2.1%
Ben Finley pass complete to Taj Davis for 4 yds for a TD (Michael Luckhurst KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UNTDrive 23PUNT
4 plays · -3 yds · 1:472% → 2%
Q3 8:02
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+3
1.8%
Ayo Adeyi run for 3 yds to the UNT 28Similar
Q3 8:02
2ND & 7
OWN 28
-6
1.7%
Stone Earle sacked for a loss of 6 yards to the UNT 22Similar
Q3 8:02
3RD & 13
OWN 22
0
1.7%
Stone Earle run for no gain to the UNT 22Similar
Q3 6:15
4TH & 13
OWN 22
0
1.5%
Adam Jacklin punt for 43 yds, downed at the CAL 25Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CALDrive 24INT
17 plays · 48 yds · 5:3998% → 99%
Q3 6:15
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+2
1.8%
Ashton Stredick run for 2 yds to the CAL 27Similar
Q3 6:15
2ND & 8
OWN 27
-2
1.8%
Ashton Stredick run for a loss of 2 yards to the CAL 25Similar
Q3 6:15
3RD & 10
OWN 25
+12
1.9%
Ben Finley pass complete to Jack Endries for 12 yds to the CAL 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 6:15
1ST & 10
OWN 37
-10
1.8%
California Penalty, Offensive Holding (Mavin Anderson) to the CAL 31Similar
Q3 6:15
1ST & 16
OWN 31
+16
1.8%
Ben Finley pass complete to Ashton Stredick for 16 yds to the CAL 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 6:15
1ST & 10
OWN 47
-5
1.7%
FINLEY, Ben pass up the middle complete for 14 yards to GRIZZELL, Trond caught at the UNT39 and advanced to the UNT39 (TEXADA, Ridge). PENALTY CAL Ineligible Receiver Downfield on Pass on SWINNEY, Bastian enforced 5 yards from the CAL47 to the CAL42 [NHSG]. NO PLAY (replay the down).Similar
Q3 6:15
1ST & 15
OWN 42
0
1.8%
Ben Finley pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 6:15
2ND & 15
OWN 42
+24
1.8%
Ben Finley pass complete to Mavin Anderson for 24 yds to the UNT 34 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 6:15
1ST & 10
OPP 34
0
1.7%
Ben Finley pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 6:15
2ND & 10
OPP 34
0
1.7%
Ben Finley pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 6:15
3RD & 10
OPP 34
+11
1.7%
Ben Finley pass complete to Trond Grizzell for 11 yds to the UNT 23 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 6:15
1ST & 10
OPP 23
+6
1.6%
Ben Finley run for 6 yds to the UNT 17Similar
Q3 6:15
2ND & 4
OPP 17
-15
1.6%
California Penalty, Offensive Pass Interference (Trond Grizzell) to the UNT 32Similar
Q3 6:15
2ND & 19
OPP 32
+10
1.7%
Ashton Stredick run for 10 yds to the UNT 22Similar
Q3 0:45
3RD & 9
OPP 22
-5
0.9%
California Penalty, False Start (-5 Yards) to the UNT 27Similar
Q3 0:36
3RD & 14
OPP 27
0
0.9%
Ben Finley pass interceptedSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UNTDrive 25DOWNS
4 plays · 3 yds · 0:401% → 1%
Q3 0:36
1ST & 10
OPP 46
0
1.2%
Chandler Rogers pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 0:32
2ND & 10
OPP 46
+6
1.1%
Isaiah Johnson run for 6 yds to the CAL 40Similar
Q3 0:01
3RD & 4
OPP 40
-3
1.2%
Chandler Rogers pass complete to Isaiah Johnson for a loss of 3 yards to the CAL 43Similar
Q4 14:56
4TH & 7
OPP 43
0
1.2%
Chandler Rogers pass incompleteSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CALDrive 26TD
7 plays · 57 yds · 3:1499% → 100%
Q4 14:56
1ST & 10
OWN 43
+5
0.9%
Ashton Stredick run for 5 yds to the CAL 48Similar
Q4 14:56
2ND & 5
OWN 48
+2
0.9%
Ashton Stredick run for 2 yds to the 50 yard lineSimilar
Q4 14:56
3RD & 3
50
+17
0.9%
Ben Finley pass complete to Mavin Anderson for 17 yds to the UNT 33 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 14:56
1ST & 10
OPP 33
+3
0.8%
Ashton Stredick run for 3 yds to the UNT 30Similar
Q4 14:56
2ND & 7
OPP 30
+7
0.8%
Ashton Stredick run for 7 yds to the UNT 23 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 14:56
1ST & 10
OPP 23
+18
0.8%
Ben Finley pass complete to Jack Endries for 18 yds to the UNT 5 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 11:42
1ST & GOAL
OPP 5
+5
0.4%
Ashton Stredick run for 5 yds for a TD (Michael Luckhurst KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UNTDrive 27INT
3 plays · 10 yds · 0:570% → 0%
Q4 11:42
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+1
0.3%
Ikaika Ragsdale run for 1 yd to the UNT 26Similar
Q4 11:42
2ND & 9
OWN 26
+9
0.3%
Chandler Rogers pass complete to Trey Cleveland for 9 yds to the UNT 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 10:45
1ST & 10
OWN 35
0
0.2%
Chandler Rogers pass interceptedSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CALDrive 28FG
10 plays · 23 yds · 4:18100% → 100%
Q4 10:45
1ST & 10
OPP 37
+5
0.3%
Ashton Stredick run for 5 yds to the UNT 32Similar
Q4 10:14
2ND & 5
OPP 32
+5
0.3%
Ashton Stredick run for 5 yds to the UNT 27 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 10:14
1ST & 10
OPP 27
+4
0.3%
Ashton Stredick run for 4 yds to the UNT 23Similar
Q4 8:25
2ND & 6
OPP 23
+4
0.2%
Ashton Stredick run for 4 yds to the UNT 19Similar
Q4 8:25
3RD & 2
OPP 19
+4
0.2%
Andy Alfieri run for 4 yds to the UNT 15 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 8:25
1ST & 10
OPP 15
0
0.2%
Andy Alfieri run for no gain to the UNT 15Similar
Q4 8:25
2ND & 10
OPP 15
+1
0.2%
Ashton Stredick run for 1 yd to the UNT 14Similar
Q4 8:25
3RD & 9
OPP 14
0
0.2%
Fernando Mendoza pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 6:27
4TH & 9
OPP 14
+31
0.3%
Michael Luckhurst 31 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UNTDrive 29PUNT
4 plays · 7 yds · 1:220% → 0%
Q4 6:18
1ST & 10
OWN 18
+4
0.1%
Chandler Rogers pass complete to Oscar Adaway III for 4 yds to the UNT 22Similar
Q4 6:18
2ND & 6
OWN 22
+3
0.1%
Oscar Adaway III run for 3 yds to the UNT 25Similar
Q4 6:18
3RD & 3
OWN 25
0
0.1%
Chandler Rogers pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 4:56
4TH & 3
OWN 25
0
0.1%
Adam Jacklin punt for 38 yds, fair catch by Taj Davis at the CAL 37Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CALDrive 30MISSED FG
6 plays · 33 yds · 3:15100% → 100%
Q4 4:48
1ST & 10
OWN 37
+5
0.3%
Jaivian Thomas run for 5 yds to the CAL 42Similar
Q4 4:48
2ND & 5
OWN 42
+27
0.3%
Jaivian Thomas run for 27 yds to the UNT 31 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 4:48
1ST & 10
OPP 31
+3
0.2%
Jaivian Thomas run for 3 yds to the UNT 28Similar
Q4 4:48
2ND & 7
OPP 28
+1
0.2%
Jaivian Thomas run for 1 yd to the UNT 27Similar
Q4 4:48
3RD & 6
OPP 27
-8
0.2%
Fernando Mendoza run for a loss of 8 yards to the UNT 30 Fernando Mendoza fumbled, recovered by CAL Fernando MendozaSimilar
Q4 1:33
4TH & 9
OPP 30
+47
0.2%
Michael Luckhurst 47 yd FG MISSEDSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UNTDrive 31END OF GAME
3 plays · -8 yds · 1:330% → 0%
Q4 1:33
1ST & 10
OWN 30
-11
0.1%
Chandler Rogers run for a loss of 11 yards to the UNT 20 Chandler Rogers fumbled, recovered by UNT Kaylon HortonSimilar
Q4 1:33
2ND & 20
OWN 20
0
0.1%
Oscar Adaway III run for no gain to the UNT 20Similar
Q4 0:00
3RD & 20
OWN 20
+2
0.0%
Oscar Adaway III run for 2 yds to the UNT 22Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
TD · Q3 11:24
Isaiah Ifanse run for 1 yd for a TD (Ben Finley pass to Jack Endries for Two-Point Conversion)
-12.2
TD · Q2 1:47
Stone Earle pass complete to Xzavior Kautai for 12 yds for a TD (Noah Rauschenberg KICK)
+10
TD · Q2 7:30
Isaiah Ifanse run for 26 yds for a TD (Michael Luckhurst KICK)
-7.2
YardLine · model v10Model estimate - not betting advice · Data provided by CollegeFootballData.com