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WSU

Washington State 50 at Colorado State 24

CSU
2023 · Week 1 · Sep 2, 2023 · Canvas Stadium
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Win probability · CSU
modelCSU aheadWSU aheadconfidence bandkey playCSU scoreWSU score
0%25%50%75%100%Q1Q2Q3Q4FGTDTDFGTDTDTDTDTDTDTDEnd of Game
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q2 10:24 · Kobe Johnson run for a loss of 2 yards to the CSU 32
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Home team on offenseScore differentialPregame priorGarbage-time factorScore diff ÷ offense timeoutsScore diff ÷ seconds remaining
+56.0+28.00−28.0−56.0Q1Q2Q3Q4Play 59Home team on offense−7.1Score differential−2.6Pregame prior−16.6Garbage-time factor−1.1Score diff ÷ offense timeouts−0.7Score diff ÷ seconds remaining−0.2
This game in five plays
  1. TD · Q2 11:34: Cameron Ward pass complete to Kyle Williams for 3 yds for a TD (Dean Janikowski KICK) — WSU win probability +5.1 pts (now 76%) (top driver: WSU has the ball).
  2. FG · Q2 0:00: Dean Janikowski 55 yd FG GOOD — WSU win probability +6.8 pts (now 87%) (top driver: WSU has the ball).
  3. TD · Q3 11:18: John Mateer 3 Yd Run (Two-Point Run Conversion Failed) — WSU win probability +9.5 pts (now 93%) (top driver: WSU has the ball).
  4. TD · Q3 10:50: Jaden Hicks 37 Yd Interception Return (Two-Point Run Conversion Failed) — WSU win probability +8.2 pts (now 98%) (top driver: CSU has the ball).
  5. TD · Q4 5:57: Dallin Holker 20 Yd pass from Brayden Fowler-Nicolosi (Jordan Noyes Kick) — CSU win probability +2.8 pts (now 3%) (top driver: CSU has the ball).
Was that the right call?

Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works

Fourth downs
CSU made the numbers' call on 4 of 9WSU made the numbers' call on 5 of 6
  1. Q1 13:56WSU 4th & 10 at WSU 36, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 73.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    73.4%−0.1
    29% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    73.5%
    average punt
  2. Q1 9:27CSU 4th & 14 at WSU 21, tied
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 28.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    28.4%−0.2
    17% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    28.6%
    74% to make
    Punt
    27.9%−0.7
    average punt
  3. Q1 5:57CSU 4th & 1 at CSU 34, down 4
    Close callPunted · 28.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    28.9%
    71% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    28.6%−0.3
    average punt
  4. Q1 1:50CSU 4th & 11 at CSU 29, down 4
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 29.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    29.2%−0.6
    25% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    29.7%
    average punt
  5. Q2 10:24CSU 4th & 1 at CSU 34, down 11
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 25.2% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    25.5%
    71% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    Punt
    24.9%−0.7
    average punt
  6. Q2 8:43WSU 4th & 21 at CSU 43, up 11
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 74.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    73.7%−1.3
    9% to convert
    Field goal
    74.4%−0.6
    28% to make
    PuntTheir call
    75.0%
    average punt
  7. Q2 7:02CSU 4th & 1 at CSU 29, down 11
    Close callPunted · 23.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    24.0%
    71% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    23.1%−0.9
    average punt
  8. Q2 2:31WSU 4th & 1 at CSU 1, up 11
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 76.5% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    76.0%
    59% to convert
    Field goal
    74.6%−1.3
    94% to make
    Punt
    71.6%−4.4
    average punt
  9. Q2 1:45CSU 4th & 2 at CSU 13, down 11
    Close callPunted · 21.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    21.4%
    57% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    21.4%−<0.1
    average punt
  10. Q2 0:00WSU 4th & 3 at CSU 38, up 11
    Numbers favored go for it by 1.3 ptsKicked a field goal · 78.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    79.0%
    53% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    77.7%−1.3
    38% to make
    Punt
    78.0%−0.9
    average punt
  11. Q3 13:56CSU 4th & 8 at CSU 27, down 14
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 18.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    18.1%−0.8
    33% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    18.9%
    average punt
  12. Q3 7:52CSU 4th & 17 at CSU 46, down 26
    Close callWent for it · 1.6% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    1.1%−0.9
    14% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    Punt
    2.0%
    average punt
  13. Q3 5:34WSU 4th & 3 at CSU 17, up 26
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 98.0% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    98.0%
    51% to convert
    Field goal
    97.9%−0.1
    80% to make
    Punt
    96.5%−1.5
    average punt
  14. Q3 5:34CSU 4th & 6 at CSU 46, down 26
    Close callWent for it · 1.5% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    1.5%−0.1
    40% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    Punt
    1.6%
    average punt
  15. Q4 9:35WSU 4th & 9 at WSU 21, up 26
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 99.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    99.2%−0.2
    30% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    99.5%
    average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
CSU made the numbers' call on 0 of 1WSU made the numbers' call on 4 of 6
  1. Q1 7:35WSU Touchdown, up 3 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    71.3%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    71.3%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  2. Q2 11:34WSU Touchdown, up 10 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    75.1%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    75.1%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  3. Q3 11:18WSU Touchdown, up 20 before the try
    Close callWent for two · failed
    Kick
    90.4%
    97% to make
    Go for twoTheir call
    90.4%−0.1
    45% to convert
  4. Q3 10:50WSU Touchdown, up 26 before the try
    Close callWent for two · failed
    Kick
    98.4%
    97% to make
    Go for twoTheir call
    98.3%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  5. Q4 14:50WSU Touchdown, up 32 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    99.6%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    99.6%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  6. Q4 5:57CSU Touchdown, down 20 before the try
    Close callKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    1.9%−0.1
    97% to make
    Go for two
    2.0%
    45% to convert
  7. Q4 0:42WSU Touchdown, up 25 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    99.9%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    99.8%−<0.1
    45% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chart
WSUDrive 1PUNT
5 plays · 11 yds · 1:0473% → 73%
Q1 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+11
26.8%
Cameron Ward pass complete to Lincoln Victor for 11 yds to the WSU 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 36
0
26.8%
Cameron Ward pass complete to Nakia Watson for no gain to the WSU 36Similar
Q1 15:00
2ND & 10
OWN 36
0
26.8%
Cameron Ward pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 15:00
3RD & 10
OWN 36
0
26.8%
Cameron Ward pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 13:56
4TH & 10
OWN 36
0
27.3%
punt for 40 yds, fair catch by Tory Horton at the CSU 24Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CSUDrive 2FG
13 plays · 55 yds · 4:2927% → 30%
Q1 13:56
1ST & 10
OWN 24
+6
27.3%
Avery Morrow run for 6 yds to the CSU 30Similar
Q1 13:56
2ND & 4
OWN 30
+6
27.3%
Avery Morrow run for 6 yds to the CSU 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 13:56
1ST & 10
OWN 36
+16
27.3%
Clay Millen pass complete to Justus Ross-Simmons for 16 yds to the WSU 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 13:56
1ST & 10
OPP 48
+2
27.4%
Avery Morrow run for 2 yds to the WSU 46Similar
Q1 13:56
2ND & 8
OPP 46
+9
27.4%
Clay Millen pass complete to Justus Ross-Simmons for 9 yds to the WSU 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 13:56
1ST & 10
OPP 37
+4
27.4%
Clay Millen pass complete to Tory Horton for 4 yds to the WSU 33Similar
Q1 13:56
2ND & 6
OPP 33
+1
27.4%
Avery Morrow run for 1 yd to the WSU 32Similar
Q1 13:56
3RD & 5
OPP 32
+15
27.4%
Clay Millen pass complete to Justus Ross-Simmons for 15 yds to the WSU 17 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 13:56
1ST & 10
OPP 17
0
27.4%
Avery Morrow run for no gain to the WSU 17Similar
Q1 13:56
2ND & 10
OPP 17
-5
27.4%
Colorado State Penalty, False Start (Drew Cannon) to the WSU 22Similar
Q1 13:56
2ND & 15
OPP 22
+1
27.4%
Avery Morrow run for 1 yd to the WSU 21Similar
Q1 13:56
3RD & 14
OPP 21
0
27.3%
Clay Millen pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 9:27
4TH & 14
OPP 21
+38
29.8%
Jordan Noyes 38 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WSUDrive 3TD
8 plays · 75 yds · 1:5270% → 72%
Q1 9:27
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+10
30.1%
Cameron Ward run for 10 yds to the WSU 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 9:27
1ST & 10
OWN 35
+7
30.0%
Cameron Ward pass complete to Kyle Williams for 7 yds to the WSU 42Similar
Q1 9:27
2ND & 3
OWN 42
+16
29.7%
Cameron Ward run for 16 yds to the CSU 42 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 9:27
1ST & 10
OPP 42
0
29.6%
Cameron Ward pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 7:40
2ND & 10
OPP 42
+26
30.3%
Cameron Ward pass complete to Cooper Mathers for 26 yds to the CSU 16 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 7:40
1ST & 10
OPP 16
+15
30.0%
Cameron Ward pass complete to Josh Kelly for 15 yds to the CSU 1 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 7:35
1ST & GOAL
OPP 1
+1
28.2%
Cameron Ward run for 1 yd for a TD (Dean Janikowski KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CSUDrive 4PUNT
4 plays · 9 yds · 1:3829% → 29%
Q1 7:35
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+3
29.1%
Kobe Johnson run for 3 yds to the CSU 28Similar
Q1 7:35
2ND & 7
OWN 28
+3
29.1%
Clay Millen pass complete to Dallin Holker for 3 yds to the CSU 31Similar
Q1 7:35
3RD & 4
OWN 31
+3
29.0%
Kobe Johnson run for 3 yds to the CSU 34Similar
Q1 5:57
4TH & 1
OWN 34
0
29.2%
Paddy Turner punt for 48 yds, fair catch by DT Sheffield at the WSU 18Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WSUDrive 5FUMBLE
7 plays · 52 yds · 2:5570% → 71%
Q1 5:57
1ST & 10
OWN 18
-10
29.7%
Kyle Williams run for a loss of 10 yards to the WSU 8Similar
Q1 5:57
2ND & 20
OWN 8
+11
29.9%
Cameron Ward pass complete to Lincoln Victor for 11 yds to the WSU 19Similar
Q1 5:57
3RD & 9
OWN 19
+21
30.0%
Cameron Ward pass complete to Josh Kelly for 21 yds to the WSU 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 5:57
1ST & 10
OWN 40
+34
29.0%
Cameron Ward pass complete to Carlos Hernandez for 19 yds to the CSU 41 for a 1ST down Colorado State Penalty, Face mask (15 yards) (Jack Howell) to the CSU 26 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 5:57
1ST & 10
OPP 26
+1
28.5%
Jaylen Jenkins run for 1 yd to the CSU 25Similar
Q1 3:02
2ND & 9
OPP 25
-5
28.9%
Cameron Ward sacked for a loss of 5 yards to the CSU 30Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CSUDrive 6PUNT
5 plays · -1 yds · 1:1230% → 29%
Q1 3:02
1ST & 10
OWN 30
+3
30.1%
Avery Morrow run for 3 yds to the CSU 33Similar
Q1 3:02
2ND & 7
OWN 33
0
30.2%
Clay Millen pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 3:02
3RD & 7
OWN 33
-4
29.8%
Clay Millen pass complete to Avery Morrow for a loss of 4 yards to the CSU 29Similar
Q1 1:50
4TH & 11
OWN 29
0
28.7%
Paddy Turner punt for 54 ydsSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WSUDrive 7TD
13 plays · 63 yds · 5:1670% → 76%
Q1 1:50
1ST & 10
OWN 37
+2
30.0%
Nakia Watson run for 2 yds to the WSU 39Similar
Q1 1:50
2ND & 8
OWN 39
+5
29.7%
Cameron Ward pass complete to Carlos Hernandez for 5 yds to the WSU 44Similar
Q1 1:50
3RD & 3
OWN 44
+22
29.8%
Cameron Ward run for 22 yds to the CSU 34 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 0:00
1ST & 10
OPP 34
+4
29.3%
Nakia Watson run for 4 yds to the CSU 30Similar
Q2 15:00
2ND & 6
OPP 30
0
29.2%
Cameron Ward pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 15:00
3RD & 6
OPP 30
+6
29.9%
Cameron Ward pass complete to Lincoln Victor for 6 yds to the CSU 24 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 24
+5
29.2%
Cameron Ward run for 5 yds to the CSU 19Similar
Q2 15:00
2ND & 5
OPP 19
+6
29.2%
Cameron Ward pass complete to Lincoln Victor for 6 yds to the CSU 13 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 13
+5
29.2%
Jaylen Jenkins run for 5 yds to the CSU 8Similar
Q2 15:00
2ND & 5
OPP 8
0
29.2%
Cameron Ward pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 15:00
3RD & 5
OPP 8
+6
29.7%
Cameron Ward run for 6 yds to the CSU 2 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 15:00
1ST & GOAL
OPP 2
-1
29.1%
Cameron Ward run for a loss of 1 yard to the CSU 3Similar
Q2 11:34
2ND & GOAL
OPP 3
+3
24.0%
Cameron Ward pass complete to Kyle Williams for 3 yds for a TD (Dean Janikowski KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CSUDrive 8DOWNS
4 plays · 7 yds · 1:1025% → 25%
Q2 11:34
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+1
25.0%
Kobe Johnson run for 1 yd to the CSU 26Similar
Q2 11:34
2ND & 9
OWN 26
0
24.9%
Clay Millen pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 11:34
3RD & 9
OWN 26
+8
24.6%
Clay Millen pass complete to Justus Ross-Simmons for 8 yds to the CSU 34Similar
Q2 10:24
4TH & 1
OWN 34
-2
24.6%
Kobe Johnson run for a loss of 2 yards to the CSU 32Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WSUDrive 9PUNT
5 plays · -11 yds · 1:4176% → 75%
Q2 10:24
1ST & 10
OPP 32
-9
23.9%
sacked by Ayden Hector for a loss of 9 yards to the CSU 41Similar
Q2 10:24
2ND & 19
OPP 41
+3
24.4%
Cameron Ward pass complete to Carlos Hernandez for 3 yds to the CSU 38Similar
Q2 10:24
3RD & 16
OPP 38
0
24.6%
Cameron Ward pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 10:24
4TH & 16
OPP 38
-5
25.1%
Washington State Penalty, Delay Of Game (TEAM) to the CSU 43Similar
Q2 8:43
4TH & 21
OPP 43
0
25.2%
Nick Haberer punt for 43 yds for a touchbackSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CSUDrive 10PUNT
4 plays · 9 yds · 1:4124% → 23%
Q2 8:43
1ST & 10
OWN 20
0
24.4%
Clay Millen pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 8:43
2ND & 10
OWN 20
+2
24.3%
Avery Morrow run for 2 yds to the CSU 22Similar
Q2 8:43
3RD & 8
OWN 22
+7
24.0%
Clay Millen pass complete to Louis Brown for 7 yds to the CSU 29Similar
Q2 7:02
4TH & 1
OWN 29
0
22.9%
Paddy Turner punt for 55 yds, downed at the WSU 16Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WSUDrive 11DOWNS
13 plays · 79 yds · 4:3176% → 77%
Q2 7:02
1ST & 10
OWN 16
+3
24.4%
Cameron Ward pass complete to Cooper Mathers for 3 yds to the WSU 19Similar
Q2 7:02
2ND & 7
OWN 19
+5
24.5%
Cameron Ward pass complete to DT Sheffield for 5 yds to the WSU 24Similar
Q2 7:02
3RD & 2
OWN 24
+3
24.6%
Nakia Watson run for 3 yds to the WSU 27 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 7:02
1ST & 10
OWN 27
0
24.2%
Cameron Ward pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 7:02
2ND & 10
OWN 27
+4
24.5%
Nakia Watson run for 4 yds to the WSU 31Similar
Q2 7:02
3RD & 6
OWN 31
+50
24.5%
Cameron Ward pass complete to Lincoln Victor for 50 yds to the CSU 19 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 7:02
1ST & 10
OPP 19
0
23.1%
Cameron Ward pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 7:02
2ND & 10
OPP 19
+16
23.2%
Cameron Ward pass complete to Carlos Hernandez for 16 yds to the CSU 3 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 7:02
1ST & GOAL
OPP 3
-1
22.9%
Nakia Watson run for a loss of 1 yard to the CSU 4Similar
Q2 7:02
2ND & GOAL
OPP 4
+3
23.1%
Cameron Ward pass complete to Josh Kelly for 3 yds to the CSU 1Similar
Q2 2:37
3RD & GOAL
OPP 1
0
21.8%
Cameron Ward pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 2:31
4TH & GOAL
OPP 1
-4
22.6%
Nakia Watson run for a loss of 4 yards to the CSU 5Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CSUDrive 12PUNT
5 plays · 8 yds · 0:4622% → 23%
Q2 2:31
1ST & 10
OWN 5
+5
22.0%
Kobe Johnson run for 5 yds to the CSU 10Similar
Q2 2:31
2ND & 5
OWN 10
0
21.6%
Clay Millen pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 1:55
3RD & 5
OWN 10
+3
22.6%
Clay Millen pass complete to Kobe Johnson for 3 yds to the CSU 13Similar
Q2 1:45
4TH & 2
OWN 13
0
22.5%
Paddy Turner punt for 44 ydsSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WSUDrive 13FG
6 plays · 7 yds · 1:4578% → 87%
Q2 1:45
1ST & 10
OPP 45
+7
21.6%
Cameron Ward pass complete to Josh Kelly for 7 yds to the CSU 38Similar
Q2 1:45
2ND & 3
OPP 38
-10
21.3%
WARD, Cameron pass to the left complete for 2 yards to SHEFFIELD, DT caught at the CSU40 and advanced to the CSU36 (HARDGE III, Ron). PENALTY WSU Holding on KELLY, Josh enforced 10 yards from the CSU38 to the CSU48 [NHSG]. NO PLAY (replay the down).Similar
Q2 0:09
2ND & 13
OPP 48
+3
20.1%
Cameron Ward run for 3 yds to the CSU 45Similar
Q2 0:09
3RD & 10
OPP 45
+7
19.8%
Cameron Ward pass complete to Lincoln Victor for 7 yds to the CSU 38Similar
Q2 0:00
4TH & 3
OPP 38
+55
13.0%
Dean Janikowski 55 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CSUDrive 14PUNT
4 plays · 2 yds · 1:0419% → 19%
Q3 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+2
19.1%
Avery Morrow run for 2 yds to the CSU 27Similar
Q3 15:00
2ND & 8
OWN 27
0
19.3%
Avery Morrow run for no gain to the CSU 27Similar
Q3 15:00
3RD & 8
OWN 27
0
18.7%
Clay Millen pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 13:56
4TH & 8
OWN 27
0
18.5%
Paddy Turner punt for 42 ydsSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WSUDrive 15TD
6 plays · 70 yds · 2:3882% → 93%
Q3 13:56
1ST & 10
OWN 30
+13
18.0%
Cameron Ward pass complete to Kyle Williams for 13 yds to the WSU 43 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 13:56
1ST & 10
OWN 43
+9
17.2%
Cameron Ward pass complete to Lincoln Victor for 9 yds to the CSU 48Similar
Q3 13:56
2ND & 1
OPP 48
+17
16.8%
Cameron Ward pass complete to Jaylen Jenkins for 17 yds to the CSU 31 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 13:56
1ST & 10
OPP 31
+28
16.7%
Cameron Ward pass complete to Lincoln Victor for 28 yds to the CSU 3 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 13:56
1ST & GOAL
OPP 3
0
16.5%
Cameron Ward run for no gain to the CSU 3Similar
Q3 11:18
2ND & GOAL
OPP 3
+3
7.0%
John Mateer 3 Yd Run (Two-Point Run Conversion Failed)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CSUDrive 16INT TD
2 plays · 11 yds · 0:2811% → 2%
Q3 11:18
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+11
10.7%
Clay Millen pass complete to Tory Horton for 11 yds to the CSU 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 10:50
1ST & 10
OWN 36
-37
2.4%
Jaden Hicks 37 Yd Interception Return (Two-Point Run Conversion Failed)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CSUDrive 17DOWNS
9 plays · 10 yds · 2:582% → 2%
Q3 10:50
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+2
2.4%
Kobe Johnson run for 2 yds to the CSU 27Similar
Q3 10:50
2ND & 8
OWN 27
+15
2.4%
Clay Millen pass complete to Dallin Holker for 15 yds to the CSU 42 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 10:50
1ST & 10
OWN 42
+4
2.5%
Kobe Johnson run for 4 yds to the CSU 46Similar
Q3 10:50
2ND & 6
OWN 46
+7
2.5%
Clay Millen pass complete to Tory Horton for 7 yds to the WSU 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 10:50
1ST & 10
OPP 47
-10
2.6%
MILLEN, Clay pass to the left complete for 4 yards to ROSS-SIMMONS, Justus caught at the WSU50 and advanced to the WSU43 (ROFF, Quinn). PENALTY CSU Illegal Block in the Back on HOLKER, Dallin enforced 10 yards from the WSU47 to the CSU43 [NHSG]. NO PLAY (replay the down).Similar
Q3 10:50
1ST & 20
OWN 43
+3
2.4%
Clay Millen run for 3 yds to the CSU 46Similar
Q3 10:50
2ND & 17
OWN 46
0
2.3%
Clay Millen pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 10:50
3RD & 17
OWN 46
0
2.3%
Clay Millen pass complete to Louis Brown for no gain to the CSU 46Similar
Q3 7:52
4TH & 17
OWN 46
-11
1.6%
Clay Millen sacked by Andrew Edson and Jaden Hicks for a loss of 11 yards to the CSU 35Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WSUDrive 18DOWNS
5 plays · 15 yds · 2:1898% → 98%
Q3 7:52
1ST & 10
OPP 35
+11
2.3%
Cameron Ward pass complete to Cooper Mathers for 11 yds to the CSU 24 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 7:52
1ST & 10
OPP 24
0
2.3%
Cameron Ward pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 7:52
2ND & 10
OPP 24
+1
2.4%
Jaylen Jenkins run for 1 yd to the CSU 23Similar
Q3 7:52
3RD & 9
OPP 23
+6
2.3%
Jaylen Jenkins run for 6 yds to the CSU 17Similar
Q3 5:34
4TH & 3
OPP 17
-3
2.0%
Cameron Ward sacked for a loss of 3 yards to the CSU 20Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CSUDrive 19INT
8 plays · 38 yds · 2:242% → 1%
Q3 5:34
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+11
1.5%
Clay Millen pass complete to Tory Horton for 11 yds to the CSU 31 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 5:34
1ST & 10
OWN 31
+5
1.5%
Clay Millen pass complete to Dallin Holker for 5 yds to the CSU 36Similar
Q3 5:34
2ND & 5
OWN 36
+6
1.5%
Avery Morrow run for 6 yds to the CSU 42 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 5:34
1ST & 10
OWN 42
0
1.6%
Clay Millen pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 5:34
2ND & 10
OWN 42
+4
1.5%
Brayden Fowler-Nicolosi pass complete to Dallin Holker for 4 yds to the CSU 46Similar
Q3 5:34
3RD & 6
OWN 46
0
1.5%
Brayden Fowler-Nicolosi pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 5:34
4TH & 6
OWN 46
+12
1.5%
Brayden Fowler-Nicolosi pass complete to Tory Horton for 12 yds to the WSU 42 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 3:10
1ST & 10
OPP 42
0
1.3%
Brayden Fowler-Nicolosi pass interceptedSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WSUDrive 20TD
10 plays · 68 yds · 3:2099% → 99%
Q3 3:10
1ST & 10
OWN 32
-1
1.5%
Jaylen Jenkins run for a loss of 1 yard to the WSU 31Similar
Q3 3:10
2ND & 11
OWN 31
-5
1.5%
Washington State Penalty, False Start (Carlos Hernandez) to the WSU 26Similar
Q3 3:10
2ND & 16
OWN 26
+15
1.5%
Cameron Ward pass complete to DT Sheffield for 15 yds to the WSU 41Similar
Q3 3:10
3RD & 1
OWN 41
+2
1.4%
Jaylen Jenkins run for 2 yds to the WSU 43 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 3:10
1ST & 10
OWN 43
-1
1.4%
Cameron Ward pass complete to DT Sheffield for a loss of 1 yard to the WSU 42Similar
Q3 3:10
2ND & 11
OWN 42
+20
1.5%
Cameron Ward pass complete to Andre Dollar for 20 yds to the CSU 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 3:10
1ST & 10
OPP 38
+24
1.4%
Cameron Ward pass complete to Josh Kelly for 24 yds to the CSU 14 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 0:00
1ST & 10
OPP 14
+2
1.1%
Cameron Ward pass complete to Josh Kelly for 2 yds to the CSU 12Similar
Q4 15:00
2ND & 8
OPP 12
0
1.1%
Cameron Ward pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 14:50
3RD & 8
OPP 12
+12
0.6%
Nakia Watson 12 Yd pass from Cameron Ward (Dean Janikowski Kick)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WSUDrive 21TD
7 plays · 75 yds · 3:1699% → 99%
Q4 14:38
1ST & 10
OWN 25
-5
1.0%
Cameron Ward run for a loss of 5 yards to the WSU 20 Cameron Ward fumbled, recovered by WSU Cameron WardSimilar
Q4 14:38
2ND & 15
OWN 20
+8
1.0%
Cameron Ward pass complete to Kyle Williams for 8 yds to the WSU 28Similar
Q4 14:38
3RD & 7
OWN 28
+8
1.0%
Cameron Ward pass complete to Lincoln Victor for 8 yds to the WSU 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 14:38
1ST & 10
OWN 36
+19
1.0%
Cameron Ward pass complete to Lincoln Victor for 19 yds to the CSU 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 14:38
1ST & 10
OPP 45
+7
0.9%
Nakia Watson run for 7 yds to the CSU 38Similar
Q4 14:38
2ND & 3
OPP 38
+13
0.9%
Cameron Ward pass complete to Lincoln Victor for 13 yds to the CSU 25 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 11:22
1ST & 10
OPP 25
+25
0.6%
Josh Kelly 25 Yd pass from Cameron Ward (Dean Janikowski Kick)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CSUDrive 22TD
1 play · 75 yds · 0:001% → 1%
Q4 11:12
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+75
0.5%
Justus Ross-Simmons 75 Yd pass from Brayden Fowler-Nicolosi (Jordan Noyes Kick)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WSUDrive 23PUNT
4 plays · 1 yds · 1:3399% → 99%
Q4 11:08
1ST & 10
OWN 20
-3
0.7%
Jaylen Jenkins run for a loss of 3 yards to the WSU 17Similar
Q4 11:08
2ND & 13
OWN 17
+4
0.7%
Cameron Ward pass complete to Nakia Watson for 4 yds to the WSU 21Similar
Q4 11:08
3RD & 9
OWN 21
0
0.7%
Cameron Ward pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 9:35
4TH & 9
OWN 21
0
0.6%
Nick Haberer punt for 50 ydsSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CSUDrive 24TD
12 plays · 74 yds · 3:380% → 3%
Q4 9:35
1ST & 10
OWN 26
0
0.4%
Brayden Fowler-Nicolosi pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 9:35
2ND & 10
OWN 26
-10
0.4%
MORROW, Avery rush up the middle for a gain of 20 yards to the CSU46 (HICKS, Jaden). PENALTY CSU Holding on CANNON, Drew enforced 10 yards from the CSU26 to the CSU16 [NHSG]. NO PLAY (replay the down).Similar
Q4 9:35
2ND & 20
OWN 16
+10
0.4%
Brayden Fowler-Nicolosi pass complete to Tory Horton for 10 yds to the CSU 26Similar
Q4 9:35
3RD & 10
OWN 26
+10
0.4%
Brayden Fowler-Nicolosi pass complete to Tory Horton for 10 yds to the CSU 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 9:35
1ST & 10
OWN 36
+11
0.4%
Brayden Fowler-Nicolosi pass complete to Louis Brown for 11 yds to the CSU 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 7:35
1ST & 10
OWN 47
0
0.3%
Brayden Fowler-Nicolosi pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 7:35
2ND & 10
OWN 47
+8
0.3%
Brayden Fowler-Nicolosi pass complete to Tory Horton for 8 yds to the WSU 45Similar
Q4 7:35
3RD & 2
OPP 45
+8
0.3%
Brayden Fowler-Nicolosi pass complete to Tory Horton for 8 yds to the WSU 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 7:35
1ST & 10
OPP 37
0
0.3%
Brayden Fowler-Nicolosi pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 7:35
2ND & 10
OPP 37
0
0.3%
Brayden Fowler-Nicolosi pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 7:35
3RD & 10
OPP 37
+17
0.3%
Brayden Fowler-Nicolosi pass complete to Dawson Menegatti for 17 yds to the WSU 20 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 5:57
1ST & 10
OPP 20
+20
3.1%
Dallin Holker 20 Yd pass from Brayden Fowler-Nicolosi (Jordan Noyes Kick)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WSUDrive 25TD
9 plays · 46 yds · 5:1398% → 100%
Q4 5:55
1ST & 10
OPP 46
+2
1.7%
John Mateer run for 2 yds to the CSU 44Similar
Q4 5:55
2ND & 8
OPP 44
+5
1.7%
Dylan Paine run for 5 yds to the CSU 39Similar
Q4 5:55
3RD & 3
OPP 39
+4
1.7%
Dylan Paine run for 4 yds to the CSU 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 5:55
1ST & 10
OPP 35
+4
1.7%
Dylan Paine run for 4 yds to the CSU 31Similar
Q4 5:55
2ND & 6
OPP 31
+4
1.7%
Djouvensky Schlenbaker run for 4 yds to the CSU 27Similar
Q4 5:55
3RD & 2
OPP 27
+10
1.8%
John Mateer run for 10 yds to the CSU 17 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 5:55
1ST & 10
OPP 17
+15
1.7%
John Mateer pass complete to Carlos Hernandez for 15 yds to the CSU 2 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 5:55
1ST & GOAL
OPP 2
+1
1.7%
Dylan Paine run for 1 yd to the CSU 1Similar
Q4 0:42
2ND & GOAL
OPP 1
+1
0.2%
John Mateer 1 Yd Run (Dean Janikowski Kick)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CSUDrive 26END OF GAME
4 plays · 35 yds · 0:420% → 0%
Q4 0:42
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+17
0.1%
Brayden Fowler-Nicolosi pass complete to Louis Brown for 17 yds to the CSU 42 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 0:42
1ST & 10
OWN 42
+7
0.1%
Brayden Fowler-Nicolosi pass complete to Vince Brown II for 7 yds to the CSU 49Similar
Q4 0:42
2ND & 3
OWN 49
0
0.1%
Brayden Fowler-Nicolosi pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 0:00
3RD & 3
OWN 49
+11
0.1%
Brayden Fowler-Nicolosi pass complete to Vince Brown II for 11 yds to the WSU 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
TD · Q3 11:18
John Mateer 3 Yd Run (Two-Point Run Conversion Failed)
-9.5
TD · Q3 10:50
Jaden Hicks 37 Yd Interception Return (Two-Point Run Conversion Failed)
-8.2
FG · Q2 0:00
Dean Janikowski 55 yd FG GOOD
-6.8
YardLine · model v10Model estimate - not betting advice · Data provided by CollegeFootballData.com