Try the model
NAU

Northern Arizona 3 at Arizona 38

ARIZ
2023 · Week 1 · Sep 2, 2023 · Arizona Stadium
Speed4x
View as
Download image
Win probability · ARIZ
modelARIZ aheadNAU aheadconfidence bandkey playARIZ scoreNAU score
0%25%50%75%100%Q1Q2Q3Q4TDTDFGTDTDTDFGEnd of GameTD+3.4ARIZ 95.3%Tacario Davis 85 Yd Return of BlockedField Goal (Tyler Loop Kick)AWAY 3 - HOME 21 · Q3 11:26
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q3 11:26 · Tacario Davis 85 Yd Return of Blocked Field Goal (Tyler Loop Kick)
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Pregame priorHome team on offenseScore differentialGarbage-time factorBlowout marginScore diff ÷ offense timeouts
+46.0+23.00−23.0−46.0Q1Q2Q3Q4Play 80Pregame prior+27.5Home team on offense+15.2Score differential+5.2Garbage-time factor+3.4Blowout margin+0.6Score diff ÷ offense timeouts+4.8
This game in five plays
  1. TD · Q2 13:24: Jayden de Laura pass complete to Jonah Coleman for 7 yds for a TD (Tyler Loop KICK) — ARIZ win probability +1.3 pts (now 95%) (top driver: ARIZ has the ball).
  2. FG · Q2 0:00: Marcus Lye 49 yd FG GOOD — NAU win probability +0.8 pts (now 7%) (top driver: NAU has the ball).
  3. TD · Q3 11:26: Tacario Davis 85 Yd Return of Blocked Field Goal (Tyler Loop Kick) — ARIZ win probability +3.4 pts (now 95%) (top driver: NAU has the ball).
  4. KEY PLAY · Q3 6:38: DJ Williams run for 5 yds to the NAU 32 — ARIZ win probability +1.0 pts (now 97%) (top driver: ARIZ has the ball).
  5. TD · Q3 4:34: Jayden de Laura pass complete to Tetairoa McMillan for 5 yds for a TD (Tyler Loop KICK) — ARIZ win probability +2.0 pts (now 99%) (top driver: ARIZ has the ball).
Was that the right call?

Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works

Fourth downs
ARIZ made the numbers' call on 4 of 4NAU made the numbers' call on 10 of 11
  1. Q1 6:37NAU 4th & 11 at ARIZ 40, down 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 5.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    5.4%−<0.1
    27% to convert
    Field goal
    5.4%−<0.1
    34% to make
    PuntTheir call
    5.4%
    average punt
  2. Q1 3:10ARIZ 4th & 1 at NAU 35, up 7
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 94.1% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    94.2%
    71% to convert
    Field goal
    93.9%−0.2
    45% to make
    Punt
    93.8%−0.3
    average punt
  3. Q1 1:36NAU 4th & 14 at NAU 31, down 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 6.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    6.0%−0.3
    18% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    6.3%
    average punt
  4. Q2 0:00NAU 4th & 21 at ARIZ 31, down 14
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 5.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    5.0%−0.6
    9% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    5.6%
    54% to make
    Punt
    5.4%−0.2
    average punt
  5. Q3 11:26NAU 4th & 9 at ARIZ 9, down 11
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 8.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    7.5%−0.4
    25% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    7.9%
    89% to make
    Punt
    5.1%−2.8
    average punt
  6. Q3 9:49NAU 4th & 9 at NAU 26, down 18
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 3.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    3.5%−0.6
    30% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    4.1%
    average punt
  7. Q3 8:02ARIZ 4th & 26 at ARIZ 32, up 18
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 96.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    96.0%−1.3
    6% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    97.4%
    average punt
  8. Q3 6:41NAU 4th & 2 at NAU 37, down 18
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 3.8% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    4.0%
    57% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    Punt
    3.7%−0.3
    average punt
  9. Q3 3:17NAU 4th & 4 at NAU 31, down 25
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 0.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    0.8%−0.1
    48% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    1.0%
    average punt
  10. Q4 13:26NAU 4th & 1 at ARIZ 1, down 32
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 0.3% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    0.2%
    59% to convert
    Field goal
    0.0%−0.2
    94% to make
    Punt
    -0.4%−0.6
    average punt
  11. Q4 10:46ARIZ 4th & 10 at NAU 18, up 32
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 99.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    99.8%−0.1
    27% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    99.8%
    79% to make
    Punt
    99.4%−0.4
    average punt
  12. Q4 9:13NAU 4th & 5 at NAU 31, down 35
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 0.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    0.1%−0.1
    41% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    0.1%
    average punt
  13. Q4 4:57NAU 4th & 25 at NAU 5, down 35
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 0.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    -0.0%−0.1
    6% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    0.1%
    average punt
  14. Q4 2:43ARIZ 4th & 2 at NAU 40, up 35
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 99.9% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    99.9%
    57% to convert
    Field goal
    99.8%−0.1
    34% to make
    Punt
    99.8%−0.1
    average punt
  15. Q4 0:28NAU 4th & 2 at ARIZ 40, down 35
    Close callWent for it · 0.0% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    0.0%−<0.1
    57% to convert
    Field goal
    0.0%
    34% to make
    Punt
    0.0%−<0.1
    average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
ARIZ made the numbers' call on 5 of 5
  1. Q1 11:13ARIZ Touchdown, up 6 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    95.2%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    95.2%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  2. Q2 13:24ARIZ Touchdown, up 13 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    94.6%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    94.6%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  3. Q3 11:26ARIZ Touchdown, up 17 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    96.1%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    96.1%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  4. Q3 4:34ARIZ Touchdown, up 24 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    98.8%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    98.8%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  5. Q3 2:02ARIZ Touchdown, up 31 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    100.0%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    99.9%−<0.1
    45% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chart
ARIZDrive 1TD
7 plays · 65 yds · 3:4796% → 96%
Q1 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 35
+4
96.0%
Jayden de Laura pass complete to Jacob Cowing for 4 yds to the ARIZ 39Similar
Q1 14:28
2ND & 6
OWN 39
+4
95.9%
Jonah Coleman run for 4 yds to the ARIZ 43Similar
Q1 13:51
3RD & 2
OWN 43
+3
95.8%
Michael Wiley run for 3 yds to the ARIZ 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 13:14
1ST & 10
OWN 46
+7
95.7%
Jayden de Laura pass complete to Michael Wiley for 7 yds to the NAU 47Similar
Q1 12:39
2ND & 3
OPP 47
+6
95.7%
Michael Wiley run for 6 yds to the NAU 41 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 11:59
1ST & 10
OPP 41
+37
95.5%
Jayden de Laura pass complete to Jonah Coleman for 37 yds to the NAU 4 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 11:13
1ST & GOAL
OPP 4
+4
95.6%
Jayden de Laura pass complete to Jacob Cowing for 4 yds for a TD (Tyler Loop KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NAUDrive 2PUNT
9 plays · 35 yds · 4:355% → 5%
Q1 11:12
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+5
95.5%
Devon Starling run for 5 yds to the NAU 30Similar
Q1 10:38
2ND & 5
OWN 30
+5
95.4%
Arizona Penalty, Offsides (5 Yards) to the NAU 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 10:30
1ST & 10
OWN 35
+6
95.4%
Kai Millner pass complete to Coleman Owen for 6 yds to the NAU 41Similar
Q1 9:58
2ND & 4
OWN 41
+1
95.3%
Devon Starling run for 1 yd to the NAU 42Similar
Q1 9:26
3RD & 3
OWN 42
+19
95.2%
Kai Millner pass complete to Jamal Glaspie for 19 yds to the ARIZ 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 8:52
1ST & 10
OPP 39
-7
95.1%
Devon Starling run for a loss of 7 yards to the ARIZ 46Similar
Q1 8:08
2ND & 17
OPP 46
+3
95.1%
Angel Flores run for 3 yds to the ARIZ 43Similar
Q1 7:20
3RD & 14
OPP 43
+3
95.0%
Kai Millner run for 3 yds to the ARIZ 40Similar
Q1 6:37
4TH & 11
OPP 40
0
94.9%
Eemil Herranen punt for 36 yds, downed at the ARIZ 4Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ARIZDrive 3DOWNS
7 plays · 61 yds · 3:1895% → 95%
Q1 6:28
1ST & 10
OWN 4
+1
94.9%
Jayden de Laura pass complete to Michael Wiley for 1 yd to the ARIZ 5Similar
Q1 5:44
2ND & 9
OWN 5
+12
94.8%
Michael Wiley run for 12 yds to the ARIZ 17 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 5:15
1ST & 10
OWN 17
+39
94.7%
Jayden de Laura pass complete to Tetairoa McMillan for 39 yds to the NAU 44 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 4:37
1ST & 10
OPP 44
0
94.8%
Jayden de Laura pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 4:31
2ND & 10
OPP 44
+7
94.8%
Michael Wiley run for 7 yds to the NAU 37Similar
Q1 3:51
3RD & 3
OPP 37
+2
94.7%
Michael Wiley run for 2 yds to the NAU 35Similar
Q1 3:10
4TH & 1
OPP 35
0
94.5%
Jayden de Laura pass incompleteSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NAUDrive 4PUNT
4 plays · -4 yds · 1:316% → 6%
Q1 3:07
1ST & 10
OWN 35
-3
94.3%
Kai Millner pass complete to Draycen Hall for a loss of 3 yards to the NAU 32Similar
Q1 2:26
2ND & 13
OWN 32
-1
94.1%
Draycen Hall run for a loss of 1 yard to the NAU 31Similar
Q1 1:46
3RD & 14
OWN 31
0
94.1%
Kai Millner pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 1:36
4TH & 14
OWN 31
0
94.2%
Eemil Herranen punt for 37 ydsSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ARIZDrive 5TD
9 plays · 78 yds · 3:0494% → 95%
Q1 1:28
1ST & 10
OWN 22
+17
94.0%
Jayden de Laura pass complete to Keyan Burnett for 17 yds to the ARIZ 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 0:41
1ST & 10
OWN 39
+19
94.0%
Jayden de Laura pass complete to Michael Wiley for 19 yds to the NAU 42 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 0:01
1ST & 10
OPP 42
0
94.0%
Jayden de Laura pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 14:59
2ND & 10
OPP 42
+15
94.0%
Jayden de Laura pass complete to Jonah Coleman for 15 yds to the NAU 27 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 14:34
1ST & 10
OPP 27
+21
94.0%
Jayden de Laura pass complete to Tetairoa McMillan for 21 yds to the NAU 6 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 14:09
1ST & GOAL
OPP 6
-5
93.9%
(14:09) DE LAURA, Jayden pass to the left incomplete intended for MCMILLAN, Tetairoa broken up by HUMPHREY, Colby at the NAU0, clock 14:10. PENALTY Before the snap, ARI Illegal Formation enforced 5 yards from the NAU6 to the NAU11. NO PLAY (replay the down).Similar
Q2 14:08
1ST & GOAL
OPP 11
+4
93.9%
Jonah Coleman run for 4 yds to the NAU 7Similar
Q2 13:24
2ND & GOAL
OPP 7
+7
95.2%
Jayden de Laura pass complete to Jonah Coleman for 7 yds for a TD (Tyler Loop KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NAUDrive 6FUMBLE
7 plays · 36 yds · 2:295% → 6%
Q2 13:23
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+1
94.6%
Tj Mcdaniel run for 1 yd to the NAU 26Similar
Q2 12:48
2ND & 9
OWN 26
0
94.6%
Kai Millner pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 12:45
3RD & 9
OWN 26
+5
94.6%
Arizona Penalty, Offsides (5 Yards) to the NAU 31Similar
Q2 12:42
3RD & 4
OWN 31
+10
94.5%
Kai Millner pass complete to Tj Mcdaniel for 10 yds to the NAU 41 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 12:10
1ST & 10
OWN 41
+10
94.2%
Tj Mcdaniel run for 10 yds to the ARIZ 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 11:34
1ST & 10
OPP 49
-4
94.0%
Tj Mcdaniel run for a loss of 4 yards to the NAU 47Similar
Q2 10:54
2ND & 14
OWN 47
+14
94.2%
Tj Mcdaniel run for 14 yds to the ARIZ 39 Tj Mcdaniel fumbled, recovered by ARIZ Daniel HeimuliSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ARIZDrive 7FUMBLE
6 plays · 54 yds · 2:4495% → 95%
Q2 10:46
1ST & 10
OWN 39
+8
94.9%
DJ Williams run for 8 yds to the ARIZ 47Similar
Q2 10:10
2ND & 2
OWN 47
+17
94.9%
DJ Williams run for 17 yds to the NAU 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 9:17
1ST & 10
OPP 36
+13
95.1%
Jayden de Laura pass complete to Michael Wiley for 13 yds to the NAU 23 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 8:38
1ST & 10
OPP 23
+10
95.0%
Michael Wiley run for 10 yds to the NAU 13 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 8:02
1ST & 10
OPP 13
+6
94.7%
Jayden de Laura run for 6 yds to the NAU 20 fumbled, recovered by NAU Tommy EllisSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NAUDrive 8FG
21 plays · 49 yds · 7:366% → 7%
Q2 7:36
1ST & 10
OWN 20
0
94.0%
Adam Damante pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 7:35
2ND & 10
OWN 20
-3
94.1%
Draycen Hall run for a loss of 3 yards to the NAU 17Similar
Q2 7:01
3RD & 13
OWN 17
+4
94.1%
Adam Damante pass complete to Draycen Hall for 4 yds to the NAU 21Similar
Q2 6:10
4TH & 9
OWN 21
-5
94.1%
Northern Arizona Penalty, Delay Of Game (TEAM) to the NAU 16Similar
Q2 6:09
4TH & 14
OWN 16
+15
94.1%
(06:09) HERRANEN, Eemil punt 19 yards to the NAU35 out of bounds, clock 06:03. PENALTY ARI Roughing the Kicker on JOHNSON, Dalton enforced 15 yards from the NAU16 to the NAU31 and results in automatic 1ST DOWN. NO PLAY (replay the down).Similar
Q2 6:02
1ST & 10
OWN 31
+6
93.7%
Devon Starling run for 6 yds to the NAU 37Similar
Q2 5:34
2ND & 4
OWN 37
-10
93.4%
Northern Arizona Penalty, Offensive Holding (-10 Yards) to the NAU 16Similar
Q2 5:07
2ND & 14
OWN 27
+7
93.9%
Kai Millner pass complete to Hendrix Johnson for 7 yds to the NAU 34Similar
Q2 4:31
3RD & 7
OWN 34
+19
93.6%
Kai Millner pass complete to Coleman Owen for 19 yds to the ARIZ 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 3:59
1ST & 10
OPP 47
-10
93.1%
Northern Arizona Penalty, Offensive Holding (-10 Yards) to the NAU 46Similar
Q2 3:10
1ST & 17
OWN 46
+9
93.4%
Kai Millner pass complete to Myseth Currie for 9 yds to the ARIZ 45Similar
Q2 1:12
2ND & 8
OPP 45
+5
92.7%
Tj Mcdaniel run for 5 yds to the ARIZ 40Similar
Q2 1:12
3RD & 3
OPP 40
+4
92.6%
Tj Mcdaniel run for 4 yds to the ARIZ 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 1:12
1ST & 10
OPP 36
+15
92.6%
Arizona Penalty, Unnecessary Roughness (Tyler Manoa) to the ARIZ 20 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 1:02
1ST & 10
OPP 20
-1
92.6%
Kai Millner sacked by Jacob Manu and Taylor Upshaw for a loss of 1 yard to the ARIZ 21Similar
Q2 1:01
2ND & 11
OPP 21
-10
92.8%
(01:01) QB Keeper MILLNER, Kai rush up the middle for a gain of 21 yards to the ARI0, TOUCHDOWN NAU, score nullified by penalty, clock 00:51 (Play was confirmed after review). PENALTY NAU Holding on CAREY, Terron enforced 10 yards from the ARI21 to the ARI31 [SG]. NO PLAY (replay the down).Similar
Q2 0:49
2ND & 21
OPP 31
0
93.4%
Kai Millner pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 0:44
3RD & 21
OPP 31
0
93.7%
Tj Mcdaniel run for no gain to the ARIZ 31Similar
Q2 0:00
4TH & 21
OPP 31
+49
93.3%
Marcus Lye 49 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NAUDrive 9MISSED FG TD
10 plays · 66 yds · 3:337% → 5%
Q3 14:59
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+3
92.8%
Tj Mcdaniel run for 3 yds to the NAU 28Similar
Q3 14:23
2ND & 7
OWN 28
0
92.7%
Kai Millner pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 14:18
3RD & 7
OWN 28
+13
93.0%
Kai Millner pass complete to Coleman Owen for 13 yds to the NAU 41 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 13:53
1ST & 10
OWN 41
+11
92.3%
Tj Mcdaniel run for 11 yds to the ARIZ 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 13:26
1ST & 10
OPP 48
+31
91.8%
Kai Millner pass complete to BJ Fleming for 31 yds to the ARIZ 17 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 13:09
1ST & GOAL
OPP 8
-3
91.2%
Angel Flores run for a loss of 3 yards to the ARIZ 7 fumbled, recovered by NAU Angel FloresSimilar
Q3 12:26
2ND & GOAL
OPP 7
+3
91.0%
Angel Flores run for 3 yds to the ARIZ 4Similar
Q3 11:40
3RD & GOAL
OPP 4
0
91.4%
Kai Millner pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 11:39
4TH & GOAL
OPP 4
-5
91.9%
Northern Arizona Penalty, Delay Of Game (Marcus Lye) to the ARIZ 9Similar
Q3 11:26
4TH & GOAL
OPP 9
+85
95.3%
Tacario Davis 85 Yd Return of Blocked Field Goal (Tyler Loop Kick)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NAUDrive 10PUNT
4 plays · 1 yds · 1:334% → 4%
Q3 11:22
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+3
95.7%
Devon Starling run for 3 yds to the NAU 28Similar
Q3 10:56
2ND & 7
OWN 28
+2
95.6%
Kai Millner pass complete to Devon Starling for 2 yds to the NAU 30Similar
Q3 10:37
3RD & 5
OWN 30
-4
95.6%
Kai Millner pass complete to Hendrix Johnson for a loss of 4 yards to the NAU 26Similar
Q3 9:49
4TH & 9
OWN 26
0
96.4%
Eemil Herranen punt for 39 yds, downed at the ARIZ 35Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ARIZDrive 11PUNT
6 plays · -3 yds · 1:4097% → 97%
Q3 9:42
1ST & 10
OWN 35
+8
97.2%
Michael Wiley run for 8 yds to the ARIZ 43Similar
Q3 9:20
2ND & 2
OWN 43
+5
97.3%
Michael Wiley run for 5 yds to the ARIZ 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 8:55
1ST & 10
OWN 48
0
97.3%
Jayden de Laura pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 8:55
2ND & 10
OWN 48
-4
97.3%
Michael Wiley run for a loss of 4 yards to the ARIZ 44Similar
Q3 8:45
3RD & 14
OWN 44
-12
97.1%
Jayden de Laura sacked by Alex McLaughlin for a loss of 12 yards to the ARIZ 32Similar
Q3 8:02
4TH & 26
OWN 32
0
96.9%
Kyle Ostendorp punt for 39 ydsSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NAUDrive 12DOWNS
4 plays · 8 yds · 1:154% → 4%
Q3 7:56
1ST & 10
OWN 29
0
96.3%
Kai Millner pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 7:52
2ND & 10
OWN 29
+8
96.4%
Tj Mcdaniel run for 8 yds to the NAU 37Similar
Q3 7:21
3RD & 2
OWN 37
0
96.3%
Tj Mcdaniel run for no gain to the NAU 37Similar
Q3 6:41
4TH & 2
OWN 37
0
96.3%
Tj Mcdaniel run for no gain to the NAU 37Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ARIZDrive 13TD
4 plays · 37 yds · 2:0497% → 99%
Q3 6:38
1ST & 10
OPP 37
+5
97.4%
DJ Williams run for 5 yds to the NAU 32Similar
Q3 6:04
2ND & 5
OPP 32
+6
97.4%
DJ Williams run for 6 yds to the NAU 26 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 5:20
1ST & 10
OPP 26
+21
97.4%
Jonah Coleman run for 21 yds to the NAU 5 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 4:34
1ST & GOAL
OPP 5
+5
99.4%
Jayden de Laura pass complete to Tetairoa McMillan for 5 yds for a TD (Tyler Loop KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NAUDrive 14PUNT
4 plays · 6 yds · 1:161% → 1%
Q3 4:33
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+5
99.2%
Devon Starling run for 5 yds to the NAU 30Similar
Q3 4:06
2ND & 5
OWN 30
+1
99.2%
Kai Millner run for 1 yd to the NAU 31Similar
Q3 3:26
3RD & 4
OWN 31
0
99.2%
Kai Millner pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 3:17
4TH & 4
OWN 31
0
99.2%
Eemil Herranen punt for 37 yds, fair catch by Jacob Cowing at the ARIZ 37Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ARIZDrive 15TD
3 plays · 63 yds · 1:0799% → 100%
Q3 3:09
1ST & 10
OWN 37
+6
99.4%
Rayshon Luke run for 6 yds to the ARIZ 43Similar
Q3 2:34
2ND & 4
OWN 43
+4
99.5%
Rayshon Luke run for 4 yds to the ARIZ 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 2:02
1ST & 10
OWN 47
+53
99.8%
Jayden de Laura run for 53 yds for a TD (Tyler Loop KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NAUDrive 16DOWNS
10 plays · 57 yds · 3:350% → 0%
Q3 2:01
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+4
99.8%
Draycen Hall run for 4 yds to the NAU 29Similar
Q3 1:27
2ND & 6
OWN 29
+15
99.8%
Arizona Penalty, Roughing the Passer on UPSHAW, Taylor enforced (Taylor Upshaw) to the ARIZ 30 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 1:02
1ST & 10
OPP 30
+1
99.8%
Draycen Hall run for 1 yd to the ARIZ 29Similar
Q3 0:26
2ND & 9
OPP 29
+26
99.8%
Kai Millner pass complete to Coleman Owen for 26 yds to the ARIZ 3 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 0:00
1ST & GOAL
OPP 1
0
99.6%
Kai Millner run for no gain to the ARIZ 1Similar
Q4 15:00
2ND & GOAL
OPP 1
-5
99.8%
Northern Arizona Penalty, False Start (Michael Flood) to the ARIZ 6Similar
Q4 14:55
2ND & GOAL
OPP 6
+5
99.8%
Draycen Hall run for 5 yds to the ARIZ 1Similar
Q4 14:14
3RD & GOAL
OPP 1
0
99.8%
Kai Millner run for no gain to the ARIZ 1Similar
Q4 13:26
4TH & GOAL
OPP 1
-2
99.8%
Draycen Hall run for a loss of 2 yards to the ARIZ 3Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ARIZDrive 17FG
8 plays · 64 yds · 2:32100% → 100%
Q4 13:18
1ST & 10
OWN 18
+15
99.9%
Jayden de Laura pass complete to Michael Wiley for 15 yds to the ARIZ 33 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 12:46
1ST & 10
OWN 33
+39
99.9%
Jayden de Laura pass complete to Montana Lemonious-Craig for 39 yds to the NAU 28 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 12:17
1ST & 10
OPP 28
+10
99.9%
Jayden de Laura pass complete to Montana Lemonious-Craig for 10 yds to the NAU 18 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 11:57
1ST & 10
OPP 18
+3
99.9%
Michael Wiley run for 3 yds to the NAU 15Similar
Q4 11:28
2ND & 7
OPP 15
+2
99.9%
Jayden de Laura pass complete to Michael Wiley for 2 yds to the NAU 13Similar
Q4 10:56
3RD & 5
OPP 13
0
99.9%
Jayden de Laura pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 10:51
4TH & 5
OPP 13
-5
99.9%
Arizona Penalty, Illegal Substitution (-5 Yards) to the NAU 18Similar
Q4 10:46
4TH & 10
OPP 18
+35
99.9%
Tyler Loop 35 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NAUDrive 18PUNT
4 plays · 5 yds · 1:240% → 0%
Q4 10:37
1ST & 10
OWN 26
+5
99.9%
Kai Millner pass complete to Myseth Currie for 5 yds to the NAU 31Similar
Q4 10:05
2ND & 5
OWN 31
0
99.9%
Chase Belcher run for no gain to the NAU 31Similar
Q4 9:20
3RD & 5
OWN 31
0
99.9%
Kai Millner pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 9:13
4TH & 5
OWN 31
0
99.9%
Eemil Herranen punt for 39 ydsSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ARIZDrive 19INT
4 plays · 42 yds · 1:34100% → 100%
Q4 9:07
1ST & 10
OWN 30
+30
99.9%
Jayden de Laura pass complete to Jacob Cowing for 30 yds to the NAU 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 8:34
1ST & 10
OPP 40
+9
99.9%
Rayshon Luke run for 9 yds to the NAU 31Similar
Q4 8:12
2ND & 1
OPP 31
+3
99.9%
Rayshon Luke run for 3 yds to the NAU 28 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 7:33
1ST & 10
OPP 28
0
99.9%
Jayden de Laura pass intercepted, touchback.Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NAUDrive 20PUNT
6 plays · -15 yds · 2:280% → 0%
Q4 7:25
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+1
100.0%
Angel Flores run for 1 yd to the NAU 21Similar
Q4 6:57
2ND & 9
OWN 21
-10
100.0%
(06:57) QB Keeper FLORES, Angel QB rush to the left for a gain of 11 yards to the NAU32 (WARNELL JR. , DJ), clock 06:50. PENALTY NAU Holding on SAWITZKE, Kevin enforced 10 yards from the NAU21 to the NAU11 [NHSG]. NO PLAY (replay the down).Similar
Q4 6:28
2ND & 19
OWN 11
-4
100.0%
Angel Flores pass complete to Chase Belcher for a loss of 4 yards to the NAU 7Similar
Q4 5:50
3RD & 23
OWN 7
+3
100.0%
Angel Flores run for 3 yds to the NAU 10Similar
Q4 4:58
4TH & 20
OWN 10
-5
100.0%
Northern Arizona Penalty, Delay Of Game (Eemil Herranen) to the NAU 5Similar
Q4 4:57
4TH & 25
OWN 5
0
100.0%
Eemil Herranen punt for 43 yds, downed at the NAU 48Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ARIZDrive 21DOWNS
4 plays · 9 yds · 2:02100% → 100%
Q4 4:45
1ST & 10
OPP 48
+5
100.0%
Noah Fifita pass complete to Kevin Green Jr. for 5 yds to the NAU 43Similar
Q4 4:09
2ND & 5
OPP 43
+1
100.0%
DJ Williams run for 1 yd to the NAU 42Similar
Q4 3:32
3RD & 4
OPP 42
+2
100.0%
Noah Fifita pass complete to DJ Williams for 2 yds to the NAU 40Similar
Q4 2:43
4TH & 2
OPP 40
+1
100.0%
DJ Williams run for 1 yd to the NAU 39Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NAUDrive 22DOWNS
7 plays · 22 yds · 2:060% → 0%
Q4 2:34
1ST & 10
OWN 39
0
100.0%
Chase Belcher run for no gain to the NAU 39Similar
Q4 2:13
2ND & 10
OWN 39
0
100.0%
pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 2:04
3RD & 10
OWN 39
+13
100.0%
Adam Damante pass complete to Isaiah Eastman for 13 yds to the ARIZ 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 1:36
1ST & 10
OPP 48
0
100.0%
Adam Damante pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 1:28
2ND & 10
OPP 48
+1
100.0%
Adam Damante run for 1 yd to the ARIZ 47Similar
Q4 0:55
3RD & 9
OPP 47
+7
100.0%
Adam Damante pass complete to Myseth Currie for 7 yds to the ARIZ 40Similar
Q4 0:28
4TH & 2
OPP 40
+1
100.0%
Chase Belcher run for 1 yd to the ARIZ 39Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ARIZDrive 23END OF GAME
1 play · -2 yds · 0:00100% → 100%
Q4 0:24
1ST & 10
OWN 39
0
100.0%
(00:24) Kneel down by ARI at ARI37 (team loss of 2), clock 00:19.Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
TD · Q3 11:26
Tacario Davis 85 Yd Return of Blocked Field Goal (Tyler Loop Kick)
+3.4
TD · Q3 4:34
Jayden de Laura pass complete to Tetairoa McMillan for 5 yds for a TD (Tyler Loop KICK)
+2
TD · Q2 13:24
Jayden de Laura pass complete to Jonah Coleman for 7 yds for a TD (Tyler Loop KICK)
+1.3
YardLine · model v10Model estimate - not betting advice · Data provided by CollegeFootballData.com