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Ohio State 17 at Notre Dame 14

ND
2023 · Week 4 · Sep 23, 2023 · Notre Dame Stadium
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Win probability · ND
modelND aheadOSU aheadconfidence bandkey playND scoreOSU score
0%25%50%75%100%Q1Q2Q3Q4FGTDTDTDTDEnd of Game
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q4 1:26 · Bryce McFerson punt for 46 yds
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Pregame priorHome team on offenseGarbage-time factorScore differentialScore diff ÷ offense timeoutsScore diff ÷ seconds remaining
+35.0+17.50−17.5−35.0Q1Q2Q3Q4Play 133Pregame prior−0.3Home team on offense+20.3Garbage-time factor+15.0Score differential+1.0Score diff ÷ offense timeouts+3.8Score diff ÷ seconds remaining+2.3
This game in five plays
  1. TD · Q3 11:14: TreVeyon Henderson run for 61 yds for a TD (Jayden Fielding KICK) — OSU win probability +17.0 pts (now 74%) (top driver: OSU has the ball).
  2. TD · Q3 3:35: Gi'Bran Payne 1 Yd Run (Spencer Shrader Kick) — ND win probability +17.9 pts (now 49%) (top driver: Game still competitive relative to time left).
  3. TD · Q4 8:22: Sam Hartman pass complete to Rico Flores Jr. for 2 yds for a TD (Spencer Shrader KICK) — ND win probability +30.8 pts (now 75%) (top driver: ND has the ball).
  4. KEY PLAY · Q4 4:17: Timeout Ohio State, clock 04:17 — ND win probability +14.2 pts (now 71%) (top driver: OSU has the ball).
  5. TD · Q4 0:01: Chip Trayanum run for 1 yd for a TD (Jayden Fielding KICK) — OSU win probability +76.2 pts (now 95%) (top driver: OSU has the ball).
Was that the right call?

Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works

Fourth downs
ND made the numbers' call on 4 of 5OSU made the numbers' call on 5 of 7
  1. Q1 11:23OSU 4th & 12 at ND 47, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 55.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    55.6%−0.1
    23% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    55.8%
    average punt
  2. Q1 3:11ND 4th & 1 at OSU 18, tied
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 46.9% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    46.9%
    71% to convert
    Field goal
    46.3%−0.6
    79% to make
    Punt
    44.4%−2.5
    average punt
  3. Q1 1:49OSU 4th & 2 at OSU 26, tied
    Close callPunted · 53.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    53.4%
    57% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    53.3%−0.2
    average punt
  4. Q2 14:04ND 4th & 5 at OSU 29, tied
    Close callKicked a field goal · 48.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    48.1%
    41% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    48.0%−<0.1
    58% to make
    Punt
    46.3%−1.8
    average punt
  5. Q2 6:53OSU 4th & 1 at ND 1, tied
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 54.5% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    53.8%
    59% to convert
    Field goal
    51.6%−2.1
    94% to make
    Punt
    46.3%−7.5
    average punt
  6. Q2 3:46ND 4th & 3 at ND 33, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 49.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    49.4%−0.2
    52% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    49.6%
    average punt
  7. Q2 0:26OSU 4th & 8 at ND 13, tied
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 54.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    52.7%−1.5
    30% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    54.2%
    85% to make
    Punt
    48.2%−6.0
    average punt
  8. Q3 11:25ND 4th & 1 at OSU 39, down 3
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 45.9% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    45.9%
    70% to convert
    Field goal
    41.4%−4.5
    36% to make
    Punt
    41.6%−4.3
    average punt
  9. Q4 14:50OSU 4th & 11 at ND 41, up 3
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 58.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    57.8%−0.6
    27% to convert
    Field goal
    57.4%−1.0
    32% to make
    PuntTheir call
    58.4%
    average punt
  10. Q4 4:12OSU 4th & 1 at ND 11, down 4
    Close callWent for it · 31.7% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    30.8%−0.4
    71% to convert
    Field goal
    31.3%
    87% to make
    Punt
    12.7%−18.5
    average punt
  11. Q4 1:26ND 4th & 17 at ND 27, up 4
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 88.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    84.0%−5.4
    13% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    89.5%
    average punt
  12. Q4 0:51OSU 4th & 7 at ND 39, down 4
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 24.2% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    16.3%
    37% to convert
    Field goal
    13.1%−3.1
    36% to make
    Punt
    8.4%−7.8
    average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
ND made the numbers' call on 2 of 2OSU made the numbers' call on 1 of 2
  1. Q3 11:14OSU Touchdown, up 9 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    68.9%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    68.7%−0.1
    45% to convert
  2. Q3 3:35ND Touchdown, down 4 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    39.4%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    39.1%−0.2
    45% to convert
  3. Q4 8:22ND Touchdown, up 3 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    68.5%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    68.4%−0.1
    45% to convert
  4. Q4 0:01OSU Touchdown, up 2 before the try
    Close callKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    77.2%−0.2
    97% to make
    Go for two
    77.4%
    45% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chart
OSUDrive 1PUNT
10 plays · 28 yds · 3:3763% → 61%
Q1 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 25
-3
37.4%
Kyle McCord pass complete to Emeka Egbuka for a loss of 3 yards to the OSU 22Similar
Q1 15:00
2ND & 13
OWN 22
+7
37.4%
TreVeyon Henderson run for 7 yds to the OSU 29Similar
Q1 15:00
3RD & 6
OWN 29
+14
37.4%
Kyle McCord pass complete to Cade Stover for 14 yds to the OSU 43 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 43
+4
37.4%
TreVeyon Henderson run for 4 yds to the OSU 47Similar
Q1 15:00
2ND & 6
OWN 47
+8
37.4%
Kyle McCord pass complete to Cade Stover for 8 yds to the ND 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 45
0
37.4%
Kyle McCord pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 15:00
2ND & 10
OPP 45
-5
37.4%
Ohio State Penalty, False Start (-5 Yards) to the 50 yard lineSimilar
Q1 15:00
2ND & 15
50
+3
37.4%
TreVeyon Henderson run for 3 yds to the ND 47Similar
Q1 15:00
3RD & 12
OPP 47
0
37.4%
Kyle McCord pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 11:23
4TH & 12
OPP 47
0
38.8%
Jesse Mirco punt for 36 ydsSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NDDrive 2DOWNS
14 plays · 71 yds · 8:1239% → 42%
Q1 11:23
1ST & 10
OWN 11
-1
38.7%
Audric Estime run for a loss of 1 yard to the ND 10Similar
Q1 11:23
2ND & 11
OWN 10
+25
38.7%
Sam Hartman pass complete to Chris Tyree for 25 yds to the ND 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 11:23
1ST & 10
OWN 35
0
38.8%
Sam Hartman pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 11:23
2ND & 10
OWN 35
+7
38.8%
Sam Hartman pass complete to Mitchell Evans for 7 yds to the ND 42Similar
Q1 11:23
3RD & 3
OWN 42
+6
39.0%
Sam Hartman pass complete to Mitchell Evans for 6 yds to the ND 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 11:23
1ST & 10
OWN 48
0
39.1%
Audric Estime run for no gain to the ND 48Similar
Q1 11:23
2ND & 10
OWN 48
+7
39.0%
Sam Hartman pass complete to Jayden Thomas for 7 yds to the OSU 45Similar
Q1 11:23
3RD & 3
OPP 45
+4
39.1%
Gi'Bran Payne run for 4 yds to the OSU 41 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 11:23
1ST & 10
OPP 41
+1
39.2%
Sam Hartman pass complete to Gi'Bran Payne for 1 yd to the OSU 40Similar
Q1 11:23
2ND & 9
OPP 40
+13
39.2%
Sam Hartman pass complete to Mitchell Evans for 13 yds to the OSU 27 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 11:23
1ST & 10
OPP 27
+1
39.3%
Audric Estime run for 1 yd to the OSU 26Similar
Q1 11:23
2ND & 9
OPP 26
+3
39.3%
Audric Estime run for 3 yds to the OSU 23Similar
Q1 11:23
3RD & 6
OPP 23
+5
39.2%
Sam Hartman pass complete to Gi'Bran Payne for 5 yds to the OSU 18Similar
Q1 3:11
4TH & 1
OPP 18
0
42.1%
Sam Hartman run for no gain to the OSU 18Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
OSUDrive 3PUNT
4 plays · 8 yds · 1:2259% → 58%
Q1 3:11
1ST & 10
OWN 18
+4
41.3%
TreVeyon Henderson run for 4 yds to the OSU 22Similar
Q1 3:11
2ND & 6
OWN 22
+2
41.3%
TreVeyon Henderson run for 2 yds to the OSU 24Similar
Q1 3:11
3RD & 4
OWN 24
+2
41.7%
Kyle McCord run for 2 yds to the OSU 26Similar
Q1 1:49
4TH & 2
OWN 26
0
42.2%
Jesse Mirco punt for 42 yds, fair catch by Chris Tyree at the ND 32Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NDDrive 4MISSED FG
7 plays · 39 yds · 2:4542% → 44%
Q1 1:49
1ST & 10
OWN 32
+12
42.4%
Sam Hartman pass complete to Jaden Greathouse for 12 yds to the ND 44 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 1:49
1ST & 10
OWN 44
+12
43.4%
Sam Hartman pass complete to Mitchell Evans for 12 yds to the OSU 44 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 0:00
1ST & 10
OPP 44
+10
44.6%
Jeremiyah Love run for 10 yds to the OSU 34 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 34
+5
44.9%
Devyn Ford run for 5 yds to the OSU 29Similar
Q2 15:00
2ND & 5
OPP 29
0
45.0%
Sam Hartman pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 15:00
3RD & 5
OPP 29
0
44.4%
Sam Hartman pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 14:04
4TH & 5
OPP 29
+47
43.8%
Spencer Shrader 47 yd FG MISSEDSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
OSUDrive 5DOWNS
14 plays · 70 yds · 7:1158% → 58%
Q2 14:04
1ST & 10
OWN 29
+9
42.0%
Emeka Egbuka run for 9 yds to the OSU 38Similar
Q2 14:04
2ND & 1
OWN 38
+6
41.0%
TreVeyon Henderson run for 6 yds to the OSU 44 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 14:04
1ST & 10
OWN 44
+5
40.9%
Kyle McCord run for 5 yds to the OSU 49Similar
Q2 14:04
2ND & 5
OWN 49
+15
40.7%
MCCORD, Kyle pass to the right incomplete intended for STOVER, Cade thrown to the UND36. PENALTY UND Pass Interference on BROWN, DJ enforced 15 yards to the UND36 and results in automatic 1ST DOWN [NHSG]. NO PLAY (replay the down).Similar
Q2 14:04
1ST & 10
OPP 36
0
40.6%
Kyle McCord pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 14:04
2ND & 10
OPP 36
+2
40.6%
TreVeyon Henderson run for 2 yds to the ND 34Similar
Q2 14:04
3RD & 8
OPP 34
+12
40.8%
Kyle McCord pass complete to Chip Trayanum for 12 yds to the ND 22 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 14:04
1ST & 10
OPP 22
+4
40.0%
Chip Trayanum run for 4 yds to the ND 18Similar
Q2 14:04
2ND & 6
OPP 18
+1
40.0%
Chip Trayanum run for 1 yd to the ND 17Similar
Q2 14:04
3RD & 5
OPP 17
+10
40.6%
Kyle McCord pass complete to Emeka Egbuka for 10 yds to the ND 7 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 14:04
1ST & GOAL
OPP 7
+3
40.0%
Chip Trayanum run for 3 yds to the ND 4Similar
Q2 14:04
2ND & GOAL
OPP 4
+3
40.0%
Chip Trayanum run for 3 yds to the ND 1Similar
Q2 14:04
3RD & GOAL
OPP 1
0
40.5%
Miyan Williams run for no gain to the ND 1Similar
Q2 6:53
4TH & GOAL
OPP 1
0
41.8%
Kyle McCord pass incompleteSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NDDrive 6PUNT
6 plays · 32 yds · 3:0746% → 46%
Q2 6:53
1ST & 10
OWN 1
+3
45.6%
Sam Hartman run for 3 yds to the ND 4Similar
Q2 6:53
2ND & 7
OWN 4
+22
45.5%
Audric Estime run for 22 yds to the ND 26 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 6:53
1ST & 10
OWN 26
+4
46.1%
Devyn Ford run for 4 yds to the ND 30Similar
Q2 6:53
2ND & 6
OWN 30
+3
46.2%
Jeremiyah Love run for 3 yds to the ND 33Similar
Q2 6:53
3RD & 3
OWN 33
0
45.6%
Sam Hartman pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 3:46
4TH & 3
OWN 33
0
45.8%
Bryce McFerson punt for 46 yds, fair catch by Emeka Egbuka at the OSU 21Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
OSUDrive 7FG
15 plays · 66 yds · 3:2056% → 61%
Q2 3:46
1ST & 10
OWN 21
+7
43.8%
Kyle McCord pass complete to Marvin Harrison Jr. for 7 yds to the OSU 28Similar
Q2 3:46
2ND & 3
OWN 28
+1
42.7%
TreVeyon Henderson run for 1 yd to the OSU 29Similar
Q2 3:46
3RD & 2
OWN 29
+6
43.7%
Kyle McCord pass complete to Cade Stover for 6 yds to the OSU 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 3:46
1ST & 10
OWN 35
+2
43.1%
Kyle McCord run for 2 yds to the OSU 37Similar
Q2 3:46
2ND & 8
OWN 37
+15
42.9%
MCCORD, Kyle pass deep to the right incomplete intended for HARRISON JR., Marvin thrown to the UND34. PENALTY UND Pass Interference on MORRISON, Benjamin enforced 15 yards to the UND48 and results in automatic 1ST DOWN [NHSG]. NO PLAY (replay the down).Similar
Q2 3:46
1ST & 10
OPP 48
+3
41.1%
TreVeyon Henderson run for 3 yds to the ND 45Similar
Q2 1:17
2ND & 7
OPP 45
0
40.0%
Kyle McCord pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 1:17
3RD & 7
OPP 45
+12
40.7%
Kyle McCord pass complete to Emeka Egbuka for 12 yds to the ND 33 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 1:17
1ST & 10
OPP 33
+18
38.8%
Kyle McCord pass complete to Emeka Egbuka for 18 yds to the ND 15 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:40
1ST & 10
OPP 15
0
38.5%
Kyle McCord pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 0:34
2ND & 10
OPP 15
+2
38.9%
TreVeyon Henderson run for 2 yds to the ND 13Similar
Q2 0:34
3RD & 8
OPP 13
0
40.1%
Kyle McCord pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 0:26
4TH & 8
OPP 13
+31
38.6%
Jayden Fielding 31 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NDDrive 8END OF HALF
1 play · -1 yds · 0:0041% → 41%
Q2 0:00
1ST & 10
OWN 25
0
40.5%
[NH] Kneel down by HARTMAN, Sam at UND24 (team loss of 1), clock 00:00.Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NDDrive 9DOWNS
8 plays · 36 yds · 3:3542% → 43%
Q3 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+4
41.8%
Audric Estime run for 4 yds to the ND 29Similar
Q3 15:00
2ND & 6
OWN 29
+7
42.2%
Sam Hartman pass complete to Mitchell Evans for 7 yds to the ND 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 36
0
42.8%
Sam Hartman pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 15:00
2ND & 10
OWN 36
+16
42.3%
Audric Estime run for 16 yds to the OSU 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 48
+7
45.4%
Jeremiyah Love run for 7 yds to the OSU 41Similar
Q3 15:00
2ND & 3
OPP 41
+1
45.5%
Audric Estime run for 1 yd to the OSU 40Similar
Q3 15:00
3RD & 2
OPP 40
+1
45.0%
Audric Estime run for 1 yd to the OSU 39Similar
Q3 11:25
4TH & 1
OPP 39
0
43.3%
Sam Hartman run for no gain to the OSU 39Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
OSUDrive 10TD
1 play · 61 yds · 0:0074% → 74%
Q3 11:14
1ST & 10
OWN 39
+61
26.3%
TreVeyon Henderson run for 61 yds for a TD (Jayden Fielding KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NDDrive 11TD
13 plays · 75 yds · 7:3927% → 49%
Q3 11:14
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+2
27.4%
Jadarian Price run for 2 yds to the ND 27Similar
Q3 11:14
2ND & 8
OWN 27
+16
27.6%
Jeremiyah Love run for 16 yds to the ND 43 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 11:14
1ST & 10
OWN 43
0
28.8%
Sam Hartman pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 11:14
2ND & 10
OWN 43
+18
28.6%
Jadarian Price run for 18 yds to the OSU 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 11:14
1ST & 10
OPP 39
+4
30.0%
Jeremiyah Love run for 4 yds to the OSU 35Similar
Q3 11:14
2ND & 6
OPP 35
+1
31.2%
Jeremiyah Love run for 1 yd to the OSU 34Similar
Q3 11:14
3RD & 5
OPP 34
+6
29.8%
Sam Hartman pass complete to Rico Flores Jr. for 6 yds to the OSU 28 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 11:14
1ST & 10
OPP 28
+6
31.2%
Gi'Bran Payne run for 6 yds to the OSU 22Similar
Q3 11:14
2ND & 4
OPP 22
+1
31.2%
Gi'Bran Payne run for 1 yd to the OSU 21Similar
Q3 11:14
3RD & 3
OPP 21
+3
29.8%
Gi'Bran Payne run for 3 yds to the OSU 18 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 11:14
1ST & 10
OPP 18
+2
31.2%
Jadarian Price run for 2 yds to the OSU 16Similar
Q3 11:14
2ND & 8
OPP 16
+15
31.2%
Sam Hartman pass complete to Tobias Merriweather for 15 yds to the OSU 1 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 3:35
1ST & GOAL
OPP 1
+1
49.1%
Gi'Bran Payne 1 Yd Run (Spencer Shrader Kick)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
OSUDrive 12PUNT
9 plays · 24 yds · 3:3862% → 60%
Q3 3:28
1ST & 10
OWN 35
+6
38.2%
Kyle McCord pass complete to Marvin Harrison Jr. for 6 yds to the OSU 41Similar
Q3 3:28
2ND & 4
OWN 41
0
36.5%
TreVeyon Henderson run for no gain to the OSU 41Similar
Q3 3:28
3RD & 4
OWN 41
+4
36.9%
Kyle McCord pass complete to Cade Stover for 4 yds to the OSU 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 3:28
1ST & 10
OWN 45
+15
36.5%
Kyle McCord pass complete to Emeka Egbuka for 15 yds to the ND 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 3:28
1ST & 10
OPP 40
0
35.7%
Kyle McCord pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 3:28
2ND & 10
OPP 40
+1
35.8%
Chip Trayanum run for 1 yd to the ND 39Similar
Q3 3:28
3RD & 9
OPP 39
-15
36.3%
MCCORD, Kyle pass to the right complete for 11 yards to EGBUKA, Emeka caught at the UND28 and advanced to the UND28 (LEWIS, Clarence;HARPER, Thomas). PENALTY OSU Unnecessary Roughness on FRYAR, Josh enforced 15 yards from the UND39 to the OSU46 [NHSG]. NO PLAY (replay the down).Similar
Q3 0:00
3RD & 24
OWN 46
+13
39.6%
Kyle McCord pass complete to Cade Stover for 13 yds to the ND 41Similar
Q4 14:50
4TH & 11
OPP 41
0
40.5%
Jesse Mirco punt for 37 yds, downed at the ND 4Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NDDrive 13TD
13 plays · 96 yds · 6:2842% → 75%
Q4 14:50
1ST & 10
OWN 4
+3
41.6%
Jaden Greathouse run for 3 yds to the ND 7Similar
Q4 14:50
2ND & 7
OWN 7
+28
41.4%
Sam Hartman pass complete to Jaden Greathouse for 28 yds to the ND 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 14:50
1ST & 10
OWN 35
0
43.1%
Audric Estime run for no gain to the ND 35Similar
Q4 14:50
2ND & 10
OWN 35
0
42.8%
Sam Hartman pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 14:50
3RD & 10
OWN 35
+25
41.0%
Sam Hartman pass complete to Mitchell Evans for 25 yds to the OSU 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 14:50
1ST & 10
OPP 40
+6
47.9%
Audric Estime run for 6 yds to the OSU 34Similar
Q4 14:50
2ND & 4
OPP 34
+4
50.4%
Audric Estime run for 4 yds to the OSU 30 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 10:38
1ST & 10
OPP 30
+10
44.7%
HARTMAN, Sam pass deep to the left incomplete intended for MERRIWEATHER, Tobias thrown to the OSU5. PENALTY OSU Holding on IGBINOSUN, Davison enforced 10 yards from the OSU30 to the OSU20 and results in automatic 1ST DOWN [SG]. NO PLAY (replay the down).Similar
Q4 10:38
1ST & 10
OPP 20
+6
44.6%
Jeremiyah Love run for 6 yds to the OSU 14Similar
Q4 10:38
2ND & 4
OPP 14
+10
44.6%
Jeremiyah Love run for 10 yds to the OSU 4 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 10:38
1ST & GOAL
OPP 4
+2
44.6%
Audric Estime run for 2 yds to the OSU 2Similar
Q4 8:22
2ND & GOAL
OPP 2
+2
75.4%
Sam Hartman pass complete to Rico Flores Jr. for 2 yds for a TD (Spencer Shrader KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
OSUDrive 14DOWNS
10 plays · 64 yds · 4:1035% → 29%
Q4 8:22
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+1
65.5%
Kyle McCord pass complete to Julian Fleming for 1 yd to the OSU 26Similar
Q4 8:22
2ND & 9
OWN 26
+4
65.8%
Kyle McCord pass complete to Cade Stover for 4 yds to the OSU 30Similar
Q4 8:22
3RD & 5
OWN 30
+40
65.5%
Kyle McCord pass complete to Xavier Johnson for 40 yds to the ND 30 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 8:22
1ST & 10
OPP 30
-5
56.8%
Ohio State Penalty, False Start (Josh Simmons) to the ND 35Similar
Q4 8:22
1ST & 15
OPP 35
+15
59.0%
MCCORD, Kyle pass deep to the left incomplete intended for HENDERSON, TreVeyon thrown to the UND5. PENALTY UND Pass Interference on BERTRAND, JD enforced 15 yards to the UND20 and results in automatic 1ST DOWN [NHSG]. NO PLAY (replay the down).Similar
Q4 8:22
1ST & 10
OPP 20
0
55.8%
Kyle McCord pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 8:22
2ND & 10
OPP 20
+9
56.7%
TreVeyon Henderson run for 9 yds to the ND 11Similar
Q4 4:17
3RD & 1
OPP 11
0
68.5%
TreVeyon Henderson run for no gain to the ND 11Similar
Q4 4:12
4TH & 1
OPP 11
0
71.0%
Emeka Egbuka run for no gain to the ND 11Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NDDrive 15PUNT
8 plays · 16 yds · 2:4684% → 92%
Q4 4:12
1ST & 10
OWN 11
+12
84.1%
Sam Hartman pass complete to Rico Flores Jr. for 12 yds to the ND 23 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 4:12
1ST & 10
OWN 23
+11
84.5%
Audric Estime run for 11 yds to the ND 34 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 2:28
1ST & 10
OWN 34
-5
89.9%
Sam Hartman run for a loss of 5 yards to the ND 29Similar
Q4 2:28
2ND & 15
OWN 29
0
89.2%
Sam Hartman pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 2:28
3RD & 15
OWN 29
+3
88.5%
Gi'Bran Payne run for 3 yds to the ND 32Similar
Q4 2:28
4TH & 12
OWN 32
-5
88.0%
Notre Dame Penalty, False Start (JD Bertrand) to the ND 27Similar
Q4 1:26
4TH & 17
OWN 27
0
91.7%
Bryce McFerson punt for 46 ydsSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
OSUDrive 16TD
18 plays · 65 yds · 1:2516% → 95%
Q4 1:26
1ST & 10
OWN 35
0
84.1%
Kyle McCord pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 1:26
2ND & 10
OWN 35
0
85.0%
Kyle McCord pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 1:26
3RD & 10
OWN 35
+23
86.7%
Kyle McCord pass complete to Emeka Egbuka for 23 yds to the ND 42 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 1:26
1ST & 10
OPP 42
0
78.8%
Kyle McCord pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 1:26
2ND & 10
OPP 42
+3
80.4%
Kyle McCord pass complete to Cade Stover for 3 yds to the ND 39Similar
Q4 0:51
3RD & 7
OPP 39
0
80.9%
Kyle McCord pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 0:51
4TH & 7
OPP 39
+7
83.5%
Kyle McCord pass complete to Julian Fleming for 7 yds to the ND 32 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 0:51
1ST & 10
OPP 32
0
76.7%
Kyle McCord pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 0:51
2ND & 10
OPP 32
+19
77.5%
Kyle McCord pass complete to Marvin Harrison Jr. for 19 yds to the ND 13 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 0:51
1ST & 10
OPP 13
0
74.6%
Kyle McCord pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 0:15
2ND & 10
OPP 13
0
75.5%
Ohio State Penalty, Intentional Grounding (Kyle McCord) to the ND 22Similar
Q4 0:15
3RD & 19
OPP 22
+21
87.0%
Kyle McCord pass complete to Emeka Egbuka for 21 yds to the ND 1 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 0:07
1ST & GOAL
OPP 1
0
80.8%
Kyle McCord pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 0:07
2ND & GOAL
OPP 1
0
81.4%
Kyle McCord pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 0:01
3RD & GOAL
OPP 1
+1
5.2%
Chip Trayanum run for 1 yd for a TD (Jayden Fielding KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NDDrive 17END OF GAME
1 play · -8 yds · 0:0015% → 15%
Q4 0:00
1ST & 10
OWN 35
+5
14.5%
Sam Hartman pass complete to Sam Hartman for 5 yds to the ND 27Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
TD · Q4 0:01
Chip Trayanum run for 1 yd for a TD (Jayden Fielding KICK)
-76.2
TD · Q4 8:22
Sam Hartman pass complete to Rico Flores Jr. for 2 yds for a TD (Spencer Shrader KICK)
+30.8
TD · Q3 3:35
Gi'Bran Payne 1 Yd Run (Spencer Shrader Kick)
+17.9
YardLine · model v10Model estimate - not betting advice · Data provided by CollegeFootballData.com