Try the model
NAVY

Navy 11 at Army 17

ARMY
2023 · Week 15 · Dec 9, 2023 · Gillette Stadium
Speed4x
View as
Download image
Win probability · ARMY
modelARMY aheadNAVY aheadconfidence bandkey playARMY scoreNAVY score
0%25%50%75%100%Q1Q2Q3Q4TDFGFGTDEnd of Game
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q1 9:24 · Bryson Daily pass incomplete to Noah Short
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Home team on offenseGarbage-time factorScore differentialScore diff ÷ seconds remainingScore diff ÷ offense timeoutsOne-score game
+44.5+22.30−22.3−44.5Q1Q2Q3Q4Play 13Home team on offense+0.3Garbage-time factor−0.1Score differential−0.1Score diff ÷ seconds remaining+0.1Score diff ÷ offense timeouts+0.0One-score game−0.1
This game in five plays
  1. TD · Q2 14:19: Bryson Daily pass complete to Tyson Riley for 4 yds for a TD (Quinn Maretzki KICK) — NAVY win probability +7.2 pts (now 54%) (top driver: ARMY has the ball).
  2. KEY PLAY · Q4 12:01: Kanye Udoh run for 4 yds to the ARMY 39 — ARMY win probability +12.8 pts (now 39%) (top driver: ARMY has the ball).
  3. KEY PLAY · Q4 10:31: Tai Lavatai pass complete to Cody Howard for 6 yds to the NAVY 26 — NAVY win probability +12.3 pts (now 79%) (top driver: NAVY has the ball).
  4. KEY PLAY · Q4 9:17: Bryson Daily run for 1 yd to the ARMY 48 — ARMY win probability +11.8 pts (now 34%) (top driver: ARMY has the ball).
  5. KEY PLAY · Q4 7:07: Tai Lavatai pass incomplete to Brandon Chatman — NAVY win probability +10.3 pts (now 84%) (top driver: NAVY has the ball).
Was that the right call?

Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works

Fourth downs
ARMY made the numbers' call on 5 of 9NAVY made the numbers' call on 2 of 7
  1. Q1 13:37NAVY 4th & 8 at ARMY 27, tied
    Close callPunted · 46.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    46.5%−<0.1
    33% to convert
    Field goal
    46.5%
    62% to make
    PuntTheir call
    46.2%−0.4
    average punt
  2. Q1 9:24ARMY 4th & 2 at NAVY 47, tied
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 54.3% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    54.4%
    57% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    Punt
    54.2%−0.1
    average punt
  3. Q1 1:26ARMY 4th & 2 at ARMY 18, tied
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 53.8% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    54.0%
    57% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    Punt
    53.7%−0.2
    average punt
  4. Q2 12:10NAVY 4th & 5 at ARMY 30, up 7
    Close callPunted · 53.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    53.1%
    41% to convert
    Field goal
    53.0%−0.2
    56% to make
    PuntTheir call
    52.2%−1.0
    average punt
  5. Q2 8:41ARMY 4th & 8 at NAVY 47, down 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 46.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    45.7%−0.4
    34% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    46.1%
    average punt
  6. Q2 5:21ARMY 4th & 4 at ARMY 44, down 7
    Close callPunted · 43.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    43.5%
    48% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    43.2%−0.3
    average punt
  7. Q2 1:05NAVY 4th & 2 at NAVY 37, up 7
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 60.3% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    60.1%
    57% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    Punt
    59.7%−0.3
    average punt
  8. Q3 10:31ARMY 4th & 6 at NAVY 39, down 10
    Close callPunted · 33.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    33.9%
    40% to convert
    Field goal
    32.8%−1.1
    36% to make
    PuntTheir call
    33.0%−0.9
    average punt
  9. Q3 8:53NAVY 4th & 9 at ARMY 34, up 10
    Close callPunted · 67.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    66.9%−0.2
    32% to convert
    Field goal
    67.2%
    47% to make
    PuntTheir call
    66.2%−0.9
    average punt
  10. Q3 2:53ARMY 4th & 6 at ARMY 38, down 10
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 25.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    25.5%−0.4
    40% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    25.9%
    average punt
  11. Q4 10:54ARMY 4th & 5 at NAVY 40, down 7
    Numbers favored go for it by 2.3 ptsPunted · 31.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    30.4%
    42% to convert
    Field goal
    27.6%−2.8
    34% to make
    PuntTheir call
    28.1%−2.3
    average punt
  12. Q4 9:34NAVY 4th & 13 at ARMY 17, up 7
    Numbers favored field goal by 11.7 ptsPunted · 77.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    74.0%−3.2
    19% to convert
    Field goal
    77.3%
    80% to make
    PuntTheir call
    65.6%−11.7
    average punt
  13. Q4 7:09ARMY 4th & 11 at NAVY 46, down 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 25.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    23.2%−0.2
    27% to convert
    Field goal
    21.7%−1.7
    23% to make
    PuntTheir call
    23.4%
    average punt
  14. Q4 3:16NAVY 4th & 7 at ARMY 44, up 14
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 96.6% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    96.6%
    37% to convert
    Field goal
    96.1%−0.5
    27% to make
    Punt
    96.3%−0.2
    average punt
  15. Q4 1:39ARMY 4th & 3 at ARMY 38, down 8
    Numbers favored go for it by 2.2 ptsPunted · 8.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    7.5%
    52% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    5.3%−2.2
    average punt
  16. Q4 0:03NAVY 4th & 2 at NAVY 2, up 8
    Numbers favored punt by 1.4 ptsWent for it · 94.9% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    93.7%−1.4
    52% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    Punt
    95.1%
    average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
ARMY made the numbers' call on 0 of 1NAVY made the numbers' call on 1 of 1
  1. Q2 14:19NAVY Touchdown, up 6 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    50.6%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    50.5%−0.1
    45% to convert
  2. Q4 2:47ARMY Touchdown, down 8 before the try
    Numbers favored kick by 1.1 ptsWent for two · failed
    Kick
    10.4%
    97% to make
    Go for twoTheir call
    9.3%−1.1
    45% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chart
NAVYDrive 1PUNT
5 plays · 2 yds · 0:5448% → 48%
Q1 14:31
1ST & 10
OPP 25
+4
51.9%
Daba Fofana run for 4 yds to the NAVY 29Similar
Q1 14:28
2ND & 6
OPP 29
0
51.9%
Eli Heidenreich pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 14:00
3RD & 6
OPP 29
-2
52.0%
Xavier Arline run for a loss of 2 yards to the NAVY 27Similar
Q1 13:37
4TH & 8
OPP 27
0
52.1%
Riley Riethman punt for 47 yds, fair catch by Tyrell Robinson at the ARMY 26Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ARMYDrive 2DOWNS
8 plays · 21 yds · 3:5153% → 53%
Q1 13:15
1ST & 10
OPP 26
+2
52.5%
Bryson Daily run for 2 yds to the ARMY 28Similar
Q1 12:52
2ND & 8
OPP 28
+7
52.6%
Kanye Udoh run for 7 yds to the ARMY 35Similar
Q1 12:14
3RD & 1
OPP 35
+4
52.7%
Bryson Daily run for 4 yds to the ARMY 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 11:34
1ST & 10
OPP 39
+3
52.9%
Kanye Udoh run for 3 yds to the ARMY 42Similar
Q1 10:47
2ND & 7
OPP 42
-5
53.1%
Army Penalty, False Start (-5 Yards) to the ARMY 37Similar
Q1 10:18
2ND & 12
OPP 37
+10
53.1%
Bryson Daily pass complete to Casey Reynolds for 10 yds to the ARMY 47Similar
Q1 9:48
3RD & 2
OPP 47
0
53.2%
Bryson Daily run for no gain to the ARMY 47Similar
Q1 9:24
4TH & 2
OPP 47
0
53.0%
Bryson Daily pass incomplete to Noah ShortSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NAVYDrive 3INT
5 plays · 23 yds · 2:2448% → 47%
Q1 8:56
1ST & 10
OWN 47
+5
52.1%
Xavier Arline run for 5 yds to the ARMY 42Similar
Q1 8:18
2ND & 5
OWN 42
+1
52.1%
Xavier Arline run for 1 yd to the ARMY 41Similar
Q1 7:45
3RD & 4
OWN 41
+5
52.1%
Xavier Arline run for 5 yds to the ARMY 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 7:02
1ST & 10
OWN 36
+12
52.5%
Brandon Chatman run for 12 yds to the ARMY 24 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 6:32
1ST & 10
OWN 24
-30
52.9%
Xavier Arline pass intercepted Max DiDomenico return for 30 yds to the ARMY 35Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ARMYDrive 4TD
13 plays · 65 yds · 6:4454% → 46%
Q1 6:03
1ST & 10
OPP 35
+12
54.3%
Ay'Jaun Marshall run for 12 yds to the ARMY 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 5:24
1ST & 10
OPP 47
+9
54.2%
Bryson Daily run for 9 yds to the NAVY 44Similar
Q1 5:05
2ND & 1
OWN 44
+3
54.2%
Jakobi Buchanan run for 3 yds to the NAVY 41 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 4:10
1ST & 10
OWN 41
+15
54.0%
Kanye Udoh run for 15 yds to the NAVY 26 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 3:29
1ST & 10
OWN 26
0
53.4%
Bryson Daily run for no gain to the NAVY 26Similar
Q1 2:44
2ND & 10
OWN 26
+5
53.4%
Bryson Daily pass complete to Ay'Jaun Marshall for 5 yds to the NAVY 21Similar
Q1 2:26
3RD & 5
OWN 21
+3
53.0%
Bryson Daily run for 3 yds to the NAVY 18Similar
Q1 1:26
4TH & 2
OWN 18
+3
52.5%
Bryson Daily run for 3 yds to the NAVY 15 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 0:51
1ST & 10
OWN 15
+8
53.5%
Kanye Udoh run for 8 yds to the NAVY 7Similar
Q1 0:01
2ND & 2
OWN 7
+3
53.2%
Bryson Daily run for 3 yds to the NAVY 4 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 14:34
1ST & 4
OWN 4
0
53.4%
Jakobi Buchanan run for no gain to the NAVY 4Similar
Q2 14:19
2ND & 4
OWN 4
+4
46.1%
Bryson Daily pass complete to Tyson Riley for 4 yds for a TD (Quinn Maretzki KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NAVYDrive 5PUNT
7 plays · 5 yds · 1:5956% → 54%
Q2 14:09
1ST & 10
OPP 25
+3
44.4%
Alex Tecza run for 3 yds to the NAVY 28Similar
Q2 13:36
2ND & 7
OPP 28
+6
44.1%
Alex Tecza run for 6 yds to the NAVY 34Similar
Q2 13:15
3RD & 1
OPP 34
-5
44.2%
Navy Penalty, False Start (-5 Yards) to the NAVY 29Similar
Q2 12:47
3RD & 6
OPP 29
+1
44.2%
Alex Tecza run for 1 yd to the NAVY 30Similar
Q2 12:10
4TH & 5
OPP 30
0
45.8%
Riley Riethman punt for 40 yds, fair catch by Tyrell Robinson at the ARMY 30Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ARMYDrive 6PUNT
7 plays · 17 yds · 2:5949% → 45%
Q2 11:40
1ST & 10
OPP 30
+4
49.0%
Bryson Daily run for 4 yds to the ARMY 34Similar
Q2 11:21
2ND & 6
OPP 34
+3
49.0%
Bryson Daily run for 3 yds to the ARMY 37Similar
Q2 10:31
3RD & 3
OPP 37
+8
47.8%
Bryson Daily pass complete to Casey Reynolds for 8 yds to the ARMY 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 9:42
1ST & 10
OPP 45
0
47.4%
Kanye Udoh run for no gain to the ARMY 45Similar
Q2 9:17
2ND & 10
OPP 45
+2
47.0%
Bryson Daily run for 2 yds to the ARMY 47Similar
Q2 8:51
3RD & 8
OPP 47
0
46.3%
Bryson Daily pass incomplete to Casey ReynoldsSimilar
Q2 8:41
4TH & 8
OPP 47
0
44.5%
Cooper Allan punt for 37 yds, downed at the NAVY 16Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NAVYDrive 7PUNT
5 plays · -5 yds · 1:3358% → 57%
Q2 8:29
1ST & 10
OPP 16
+3
42.2%
Alex Tecza run for 3 yds to the NAVY 19Similar
Q2 7:20
2ND & 7
OPP 19
-3
40.4%
Xavier Arline run for a loss of 3 yards to the NAVY 16Similar
Q2 7:06
3RD & 10
OPP 16
0
41.1%
Xavier Arline pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 7:06
4TH & 10
OPP 16
-5
42.3%
Navy Penalty, Delay of Game (-5 Yards) to the NAVY 11Similar
Q2 6:56
4TH & GOAL
OPP 11
+3
43.0%
Riley Riethman punt for 42 yds , Tyrell Robinson returns for 3 yds to the 50 yard lineSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ARMYDrive 8PUNT
4 plays · 6 yds · 1:1645% → 42%
Q2 6:37
1ST & 10
50
+5
45.4%
Tyrell Robinson run for 5 yds to the NAVY 45Similar
Q2 6:12
2ND & 5
OWN 45
0
44.9%
Bryson Daily pass incomplete to Noah ShortSimilar
Q2 5:50
3RD & 5
OWN 45
+1
43.8%
Bryson Daily run for 1 yd to the NAVY 44Similar
Q2 5:21
4TH & 4
OWN 44
0
42.2%
Cooper Allan punt for 26 yds, fair catch by Amin Hassan at the NAVY 18Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NAVYDrive 9DOWNS
11 plays · 46 yds · 4:0161% → 61%
Q2 5:06
1ST & 10
OPP 18
+6
39.3%
Tai Lavatai run for 6 yds to the NAVY 24Similar
Q2 4:25
2ND & 4
OPP 24
+5
38.9%
Alex Tecza run for 5 yds to the NAVY 29 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 3:48
1ST & 10
OPP 29
+5
38.6%
Alex Tecza run for 5 yds to the NAVY 34Similar
Q2 2:55
2ND & 5
OPP 34
+8
37.3%
Tai Lavatai run for 8 yds to the NAVY 42 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 2:29
1ST & 10
OPP 42
+5
37.0%
Tai Lavatai run for 5 yds to the NAVY 47Similar
Q2 2:15
2ND & 5
OPP 47
+8
37.0%
Tai Lavatai run for 8 yds to the ARMY 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 2:00
1ST & 10
OWN 45
+5
37.1%
Tai Lavatai run for 5 yds to the ARMY 40Similar
Q2 1:55
2ND & 5
OWN 40
+1
37.2%
Alex Tecza run for 1 yd to the ARMY 39Similar
Q2 1:25
3RD & 4
OWN 39
+2
37.5%
Tai Lavatai run for 2 yds to the ARMY 37Similar
Q2 1:05
4TH & 2
OWN 37
+1
38.9%
Tai Lavatai run for 1 yd to the ARMY 36Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ARMYDrive 10END OF HALF
10 plays · 34 yds · 0:5945% → 36%
Q2 1:00
1ST & 10
OPP 36
+11
44.8%
Bryson Daily run for 11 yds to the ARMY 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:53
1ST & 10
OPP 47
0
44.6%
Bryson Daily pass incomplete to Casey ReynoldsSimilar
Q2 0:40
2ND & 10
OPP 47
+9
44.1%
Bryson Daily pass complete to Tobi Olawole for 9 yds to the NAVY 44Similar
Q2 0:31
3RD & 1
OWN 44
+1
43.3%
Bryson Daily run for 1 yd to the NAVY 43 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:23
1ST & 10
OWN 43
-5
42.9%
Army Penalty, False Start (-5 Yards) to the NAVY 48Similar
Q2 0:10
1ST & 15
OWN 48
+14
42.3%
Bryson Daily pass complete to Casey Reynolds for 14 yds to the NAVY 34Similar
Q2 0:02
2ND & 1
OWN 34
+4
42.1%
Bryson Daily pass complete to Ay'Jaun Marshall for 4 yds to the NAVY 30 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:01
1ST & 10
OWN 30
+47
35.7%
Quinn Maretzki 47 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ARMYDrive 11PUNT
10 plays · 34 yds · 4:1439% → 33%
Q3 14:45
1ST & GOAL
OPP 5
+4
39.2%
Bryson Daily run for 4 yds to the ARMY 9Similar
Q3 14:03
2ND & 6
OPP 9
+14
38.9%
Kanye Udoh run for 14 yds to the ARMY 23 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 13:31
1ST & 10
OPP 23
+2
38.4%
Kanye Udoh run for 2 yds to the ARMY 25Similar
Q3 13:02
2ND & 8
OPP 25
+10
38.2%
Bryson Daily run for 10 yds to the ARMY 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 12:30
1ST & 10
OPP 35
+3
37.5%
Bryson Daily run for 3 yds to the ARMY 38Similar
Q3 11:47
2ND & 7
OPP 38
-5
36.0%
Army Penalty, False Start (-5 Yards) to the ARMY 33Similar
Q3 11:12
2ND & 12
OPP 33
+6
36.5%
Bryson Daily run for 6 yds to the ARMY 39Similar
Q3 10:40
3RD & 6
OPP 39
0
35.0%
Bryson Daily pass incomplete to Liam FortnerSimilar
Q3 10:31
4TH & 6
OPP 39
0
33.0%
Cooper Allan punt for 28 yds, downed at the NAVY 33Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NAVYDrive 12PUNT
4 plays · 1 yds · 1:3869% → 68%
Q3 10:31
1ST & 10
OPP 33
-1
30.8%
Tai Lavatai pass complete to Eli Heidenreich for a loss of 1 yard to the NAVY 32Similar
Q3 9:50
2ND & 11
OPP 32
+2
30.6%
Tai Lavatai run for 2 yds to the NAVY 34Similar
Q3 9:05
3RD & 9
OPP 34
0
31.0%
Tai Lavatai pass incomplete to Jayden UmbargerSimilar
Q3 8:53
4TH & 9
OPP 34
0
32.3%
Riley Riethman punt for 51 yds , Tyrell Robinson returns for no gain to the ARMY 15Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ARMYDrive 13PUNT
11 plays · 47 yds · 5:4736% → 25%
Q3 8:40
1ST & 10
OPP 15
+7
35.8%
Ay'Jaun Marshall run for 7 yds to the ARMY 22Similar
Q3 8:04
2ND & 3
OPP 22
+2
35.5%
Jakobi Buchanan run for 2 yds to the ARMY 24Similar
Q3 7:30
3RD & 1
OPP 24
+2
33.7%
Bryson Daily run for 2 yds to the ARMY 26 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 6:32
1ST & 10
OPP 26
+14
34.9%
Kanye Udoh run for 14 yds to the ARMY 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 5:55
1ST & 10
OPP 40
+4
31.5%
Jakobi Buchanan run for 4 yds to the ARMY 44Similar
Q3 5:25
2ND & 6
OPP 44
+4
31.4%
Bryson Daily run for 4 yds to the ARMY 48Similar
Q3 4:43
3RD & 2
OPP 48
+10
30.2%
Kanye Udoh run for 10 yds to the NAVY 42 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 4:16
1ST & 10
OWN 42
+3
29.0%
Bryson Daily run for 3 yds to the NAVY 39Similar
Q3 3:26
2ND & 7
OWN 39
+1
28.3%
Bryson Daily run for 1 yd to the NAVY 38Similar
Q3 3:02
3RD & 6
OWN 38
0
27.0%
Bryson Daily pass incomplete to Casey ReynoldsSimilar
Q3 2:53
4TH & 6
OWN 38
0
25.1%
Cooper Allan punt for 27 yds, downed at the NAVY 11Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NAVYDrive 14FG
14 plays · 70 yds · 4:4577% → 71%
Q3 2:30
1ST & 10
OPP 11
+1
22.6%
Tai Lavatai run for 1 yd to the NAVY 12Similar
Q3 2:09
2ND & 9
OPP 12
+9
22.4%
Tai Lavatai pass complete to Nathan Kent for 9 yds to the NAVY 21 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 1:39
1ST & 10
OPP 21
+25
22.2%
Tai Lavatai run for 25 yds to the NAVY 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 0:57
1ST & 10
OPP 46
+5
22.6%
Tai Lavatai pass complete to Alex Tecza for 5 yds to the ARMY 49Similar
Q3 0:31
2ND & 5
OWN 49
+9
22.7%
Tai Lavatai pass complete to Jayden Umbarger for 9 yds to the ARMY 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 0:01
1ST & 10
OWN 40
+3
22.4%
Tai Lavatai run for 3 yds to the ARMY 37Similar
Q4 14:56
2ND & 7
OWN 37
0
23.3%
Tai Lavatai pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 14:37
3RD & 7
OWN 37
+13
24.5%
Tai Lavatai pass complete to Jayden Umbarger for 13 yds to the ARMY 24 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 13:57
1ST & 10
OWN 24
+6
24.6%
Alex Tecza run for 6 yds to the ARMY 18Similar
Q4 13:37
2ND & 4
OWN 18
-5
24.0%
Navy Penalty, False Start (-5 Yards) to the ARMY 23Similar
Q4 13:30
2ND & 9
OWN 23
0
24.1%
Tai Lavatai pass incomplete to Amin HassanSimilar
Q4 13:09
3RD & 9
OWN 23
+4
24.7%
Tai Lavatai run for 4 yds to the ARMY 19Similar
Q4 12:45
4TH & 5
OWN 19
+37
29.3%
Nathan Kirkwood 37 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ARMYDrive 15PUNT
5 plays · 5 yds · 1:0739% → 33%
Q4 12:01
1ST & 10
OPP 35
+4
39.1%
Kanye Udoh run for 4 yds to the ARMY 39Similar
Q4 11:49
2ND & 6
OPP 39
0
36.8%
Bryson Daily pass incomplete to Casey ReynoldsSimilar
Q4 11:22
3RD & 6
OPP 39
+1
35.9%
Bryson Daily run for 1 yd to the ARMY 40Similar
Q4 10:54
4TH & 5
OPP 40
0
33.4%
Cooper Allan punt for 40 yds, downed at the NAVY 20Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NAVYDrive 16PUNT
5 plays · -3 yds · 0:5779% → 78%
Q4 10:31
1ST & 10
OPP 20
+6
21.1%
Tai Lavatai pass complete to Cody Howard for 6 yds to the NAVY 26Similar
Q4 10:01
2ND & 4
OPP 26
-4
19.5%
Tai Lavatai sacked by Jackson Powell for a loss of 4 yards to the NAVY 22Similar
Q4 9:41
3RD & 8
OPP 22
0
19.0%
Tai Lavatai pass incomplete to Jayden UmbargerSimilar
Q4 9:41
4TH & 8
OPP 22
-5
21.9%
Navy Penalty, Delay of Game (-5 Yards) to the NAVY 17Similar
Q4 9:34
4TH & 13
OPP 17
0
22.2%
Riley Riethman punt for 36 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the ARMY 47Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ARMYDrive 17PUNT
4 plays · -1 yds · 2:0834% → 27%
Q4 9:17
1ST & 10
OPP 47
+1
34.1%
Bryson Daily run for 1 yd to the ARMY 48Similar
Q4 8:33
2ND & 9
OPP 48
+2
32.5%
Kanye Udoh run for 2 yds to the 50 yard lineSimilar
Q4 7:41
3RD & 7
50
-4
30.0%
Bryson Daily run for a loss of 4 yards to the ARMY 46Similar
Q4 7:09
4TH & 11
OPP 46
0
26.7%
Cooper Allan punt for 24 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the NAVY 30Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NAVYDrive 18FUMBLE TD
7 plays · 14 yds · 2:1884% → 95%
Q4 7:07
1ST & 10
OPP 30
0
16.4%
Tai Lavatai pass incomplete to Brandon ChatmanSimilar
Q4 7:03
2ND & 10
OPP 30
0
16.3%
Tai Lavatai pass incomplete to Eli HeidenreichSimilar
Q4 6:38
3RD & 10
OPP 30
+20
16.8%
Tai Lavatai pass complete to Eli Heidenreich for 20 yds to the 50 yard line for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 6:13
1ST & 10
50
+4
15.1%
Alex Tecza run for 4 yds to the ARMY 46Similar
Q4 5:55
2ND & 6
OWN 46
+3
15.7%
Tai Lavatai run for 3 yds to the ARMY 43Similar
Q4 5:14
3RD & 3
OWN 43
-5
14.2%
Navy Penalty, False Start (-5 Yards) to the ARMY 48Similar
Q4 4:49
3RD & 8
OWN 48
+44
5.1%
Tai Lavatai sacked by Kalib Fortner for a loss of 8 yards Tai Lavatai fumbled, forced by Kalib Fortner, recovered by ARMY Kalib Fortner , return for 0 yards , return for 44 ydsSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NAVYDrive 19TD
8 plays · 59 yds · 1:3897% → 92%
Q4 4:25
1ST & 10
OPP 41
+7
3.2%
Tai Lavatai run for 7 yds to the NAVY 48Similar
Q4 4:19
2ND & 3
OPP 48
0
3.2%
Tai Lavatai pass incomplete to Brandon ChatmanSimilar
Q4 3:41
3RD & 3
OPP 48
-4
2.8%
Tai Lavatai sacked by Austin Hill and Nathaniel Smith for a loss of 4 yards to the NAVY 44Similar
Q4 3:16
4TH & 7
OPP 44
+13
2.5%
Tai Lavatai pass complete to Brandon Chatman for 13 yds to the ARMY 43 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 3:01
1ST & 10
OWN 43
+15
2.4%
Tai Lavatai pass complete to Jayden Umbarger for 15 yds to the ARMY 28 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 2:53
1ST & 10
OWN 28
+14
2.6%
Tai Lavatai pass complete to Jayden Umbarger for 14 yds to the ARMY 14 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 2:47
1ST & 10
OWN 14
+14
7.8%
Tai Lavatai pass complete to Jayden Umbarger for 14 yds for a TD (Two-Point Conversion failed)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ARMYDrive 20PUNT
10 plays · 7 yds · 1:0814% → 8%
Q4 2:47
1ST & 10
OWN 45
-5
14.3%
Army Penalty, False Start (-5 Yards) to the 50 yard lineSimilar
Q4 2:47
1ST & 15
50
-5
13.3%
Army Penalty, False Start (-5 Yards) to the ARMY 45Similar
Q4 2:40
1ST & 20
OPP 45
+7
12.7%
Kanye Udoh run for 7 yds to the NAVY 48Similar
Q4 2:36
2ND & 13
OWN 48
+2
12.0%
Kanye Udoh run for 2 yds to the NAVY 46Similar
Q4 2:05
3RD & 11
OWN 46
+8
8.7%
Bryson Daily run for 8 yds to the NAVY 38Similar
Q4 1:39
4TH & 3
OWN 38
0
7.9%
Cooper Allan punt for 11 yds, downed at the NAVY 27Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NAVYDrive 21DOWNS
10 plays · 72 yds · 1:1799% → 91%
Q4 1:20
1ST & 10
OPP 27
+9
1.4%
Tai Lavatai run for 9 yds to the NAVY 36Similar
Q4 1:01
2ND & 1
OPP 36
+28
1.3%
Tai Lavatai pass complete to Eli Heidenreich for 28 yds to the ARMY 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 0:57
1ST & 10
OWN 36
0
1.7%
Tai Lavatai pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 0:45
2ND & 10
OWN 36
+9
1.9%
Tai Lavatai pass complete to Eli Heidenreich for 9 yds to the ARMY 27Similar
Q4 0:35
3RD & 1
OWN 27
+10
2.0%
Tai Lavatai pass complete to Jayden Umbarger for 10 yds to the ARMY 17 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 0:23
1ST & 10
OWN 17
+11
7.2%
Tai Lavatai pass complete to Brandon Chatman for 11 yds to the ARMY 6 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 0:22
1ST & 6
OWN 6
0
8.1%
Tai Lavatai pass incomplete to Brandon ChatmanSimilar
Q4 0:20
2ND & 6
OWN 6
0
8.3%
Tai Lavatai pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 0:07
3RD & 6
OWN 6
+4
8.5%
Tai Lavatai pass complete to Alex Tecza for 4 yds to the ARMY 2Similar
Q4 0:03
4TH & 2
OWN 2
+1
8.7%
Tai Lavatai run for 1 yd to the ARMY 1Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
End of Game · Final
Game over.
+91.3
KEY PLAY · Q4 12:01
Kanye Udoh run for 4 yds to the ARMY 39
+12.8
KEY PLAY · Q4 10:31
Tai Lavatai pass complete to Cody Howard for 6 yds to the NAVY 26
-12.3
YardLine · model v10Model estimate - not betting advice · Data provided by CollegeFootballData.com