2023 · Week 13 · Nov 25, 2023 · Warren McGuirk Alumni Stadium
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Win probability · MASS
modelMASS aheadCONN aheadconfidence bandkey playMASS scoreCONN score
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q4 13:25 · George Caratan punt for 50 yds for a 1ST down , Isaac Ross returns for no gain to the MASS 27 for a 1ST down
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Home team on offenseScore differentialGarbage-time factorScore diff ÷ offense timeoutsScore diff ÷ seconds remainingPregame prior
This game in five plays
- TD · Q2 6:02: Victor Rosa run for 17 yds for a TD (Joe McFadden KICK) — CONN win probability +15.1 pts (now 78%) (top driver: CONN has the ball).
- TD · Q3 11:58: Taisun Phommachanh pass complete to Gino Campiotti for 10 yds for a TD (Two-Point Conversion failed) — MASS win probability +7.6 pts (now 32%) (top driver: MASS has the ball).
- TD · Q3 1:08: Camryn Edwards 4 Yd Run (Two-Point Pass Conversion Failed) (Two-Point Conversion failed) — CONN win probability +14.5 pts (now 96%) (top driver: CONN has the ball).
- TD · Q4 11:52: Kay'Ron Lynch-Adams run for 1 yd for a TD (Two-Point Conversion failed) — MASS win probability +12.1 pts (now 20%) (top driver: MASS has the ball).
- TD · Q4 3:34: Camryn Edwards run for 8 yds for a TD (Two-Point Conversion failed) — CONN win probability +7.2 pts (now 99%) (top driver: CONN has the ball).
Was that the right call?
Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works
Fourth downs
MASS made the numbers' call on 5 of 6CONN made the numbers' call on 6 of 7
- Q1 11:18CONN 4th & 5 at MASS 45, tiedClose callPunted · 45.9% before the snapGo for it45.9%41% to convertField goal45.8%−0.125% to makePuntTheir call45.9%−<0.1average punt
- Q1 8:08MASS 4th & 5 at MASS 35, down 6Agrees with the numbersPunted · 52.8% before the snapGo for it52.9%−0.141% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call53.0%average punt
- Q1 1:02CONN 4th & 1 at MASS 5, up 6Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 49.9% before the snapGo for itTheir call49.8%67% to convertField goal48.4%−1.392% to makePunt45.1%−4.7average punt
- Q2 13:42CONN 4th & 8 at MASS 13, up 6Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 51.1% before the snapGo for it50.5%−0.430% to convertField goalTheir call51.0%85% to makePunt47.3%−3.7average punt
- Q2 11:15MASS 4th & 2 at MASS 44, down 9Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 45.6% before the snapGo for itTheir call45.8%57% to convertField goalOut of rangePunt45.0%−0.7average punt
- Q2 8:46CONN 4th & 8 at MASS 12, up 9Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 54.8% before the snapGo for it54.3%−0.430% to convertField goalTheir call54.7%86% to makePunt50.4%−4.3average punt
- Q2 7:16MASS 4th & 15 at MASS 18, down 12Agrees with the numbersPunted · 38.6% before the snapGo for it36.7%−2.116% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call38.8%average punt
- Q2 2:12MASS 4th & 12 at MASS 49, down 19Agrees with the numbersPunted · 26.4% before the snapGo for it25.5%−0.323% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call25.8%average punt
- Q2 0:19CONN 4th & 15 at MASS 48, up 19Agrees with the numbersPunted · 82.3% before the snapGo for it81.8%−0.417% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call82.1%average punt
- Q3 8:21CONN 4th & 16 at MASS 30, up 13Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 74.9% before the snapGo for it72.2%−2.916% to convertField goalTheir call75.1%56% to makePunt73.0%−2.1average punt
- Q3 6:53MASS 4th & 3 at MASS 37, down 13Close callPunted · 26.9% before the snapGo for it27.6%52% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call27.1%−0.5average punt
- Q3 0:21MASS 4th & 18 at MASS 17, down 19Agrees with the numbersPunted · 9.4% before the snapGo for it6.6%−3.812% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call10.4%average punt
- Q4 13:25CONN 4th & 24 at CONN 35, up 19Agrees with the numbersPunted · 95.2% before the snapGo for it93.5%−2.67% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call96.0%average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
MASS made the numbers' call on 2 of 3CONN made the numbers' call on 2 of 4
- Q1 10:04CONN Touchdown, up 6 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · missedKickTheir call46.8%97% to makeGo for two46.8%−<0.145% to convert
- Q2 6:02CONN Touchdown, up 18 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call70.8%97% to makeGo for two70.7%−0.145% to convert
- Q3 11:58MASS Touchdown, down 13 before the tryClose callWent for two · failedKick29.6%97% to makeGo for twoTheir call29.5%−0.245% to convert
- Q3 1:08CONN Touchdown, up 19 before the tryClose callWent for two · failedKick91.7%97% to makeGo for twoTheir call91.6%−0.145% to convert
- Q4 11:52MASS Touchdown, down 13 before the tryAgrees with the numbersWent for two · failedKick12.6%−0.197% to makeGo for twoTheir call12.6%45% to convert
- Q4 3:34CONN Touchdown, up 19 before the tryClose callWent for two · failedKick98.6%97% to makeGo for twoTheir call98.1%−0.445% to convert
- Q4 2:03MASS Touchdown, down 13 before the tryAgrees with the numbersWent for two · failedKick3.6%−0.297% to makeGo for twoTheir call3.8%45% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chartMASSDrive 1FUMBLE8 plays · 25 yds · 2:0351% → 52%
Q1 14:57
2ND & 10
OWN 25
+15
51.4%
Taisun Phommachanh pass complete to Mark Pope for 15 yds to the MASS 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 12:54
2ND & 8
OPP 47
+3
52.0%
Taisun Phommachanh run for 3 yds to the 50 yard line Taisun Phommachanh fumbled, recovered by CONN Jelani Stafford , return to the 50 yard lineSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CONNDrive 2PUNT4 plays · 5 yds · 1:3649% → 48%
MASSDrive 3INT TD3 plays · 15 yds · 1:1452% → 52%
MASSDrive 4PUNT5 plays · 5 yds · 1:4651% → 51%
Q1 9:54
1ST & 10
OWN 30
+3
51.3%
Taisun Phommachanh pass complete to Anthony Simpson for 3 yds to the MASS 33Similar
Q1 9:54
3RD & 11
OWN 29
+6
51.0%
Taisun Phommachanh pass complete to Greg Desrosiers Jr. for 6 yds to the MASS 35Similar
Q1 8:08
4TH & 5
OWN 35
0
50.7%
Riley Moore punt for 40 yds, fair catch by Brett Buckman at the CONN 15Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CONNDrive 5DOWNS14 plays · 80 yds · 7:0649% → 52%
Q1 8:08
3RD & 13
OWN 46
+26
50.9%
Ta'Quan Roberson pass complete to Brett Buckman for 26 yds to the MASS 28 for a 1ST downSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MASSDrive 6FUMBLE2 plays · 23 yds · 0:5349% → 50%
Q1 0:09
1ST & 10
OWN 28
0
49.5%
Kay'Ron Lynch-Adams run for no gain to the MASS 28 Kay'Ron Lynch-Adams fumbled, recovered by CONN Lee Molette III No Huddle Adams,Kay'Ron rush middle for 0 yards to the UMass28 fumbled by Adams,Kay'Ron at UMass29 forced by Mitchell,Jackson recovered by UConn Molette III,Lee at UMass28, End Of Play.Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CONNDrive 7FG6 plays · 15 yds · 1:1853% → 54%
Q1 0:00
1ST & 10
OPP 28
+8
47.0%
Ta'Quan Roberson pass complete to Justin Joly for 8 yds to the MASS 20Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MASSDrive 8DOWNS8 plays · 19 yds · 2:2145% → 45%
Q2 13:36
2ND & 6
OWN 30
+6
45.3%
Taisun Phommachanh pass complete to Mark Pope for 6 yds to the MASS 36 for a 1ST down UConn Penalty, Defensive Offside (Camryn Edwards) declined for a 1ST downSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CONNDrive 9FG7 plays · 33 yds · 2:2956% → 62%
Q2 11:15
1ST & 10
OPP 33
+19
44.1%
Ta'Quan Roberson pass complete to Geordon Porter for 19 yds to the MASS 14 for a 1ST downSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MASSDrive 10PUNT5 plays · -15 yds · 1:2140% → 38%
Q2 8:37
2ND & 12
OWN 21
+3
39.7%
Taisun Phommachanh pass complete to George Johnson III for 3 yds to the MASS 18Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CONNDrive 11TD3 plays · 27 yds · 1:1463% → 78%
MASSDrive 12PUNT11 plays · 36 yds · 3:4329% → 26%
Q2 5:55
2ND & 13
OWN 10
+15
28.6%
Taisun Phommachanh pass complete to George Johnson III for 15 yds to the MASS 25 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 5:55
2ND & 6
OWN 29
+9
29.0%
Taisun Phommachanh pass complete to Anthony Simpson for 9 yds to the MASS 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 5:55
1ST & 10
OWN 38
+8
30.0%
Taisun Phommachanh pass complete to Mark Pope for 8 yds to the MASS 46Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CONNDrive 13PUNT7 plays · 31 yds · 1:5380% → 84%
Q2 2:12
1ST & 10
OWN 21
+9
20.0%
Ta'Quan Roberson pass complete to Brett Buckman for 9 yds to the CONN 30Similar
Q2 2:12
2ND & 1
OWN 30
+9
19.9%
Ta'Quan Roberson pass complete to Cameron Ross for 9 yds to the CONN 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 2:12
1ST & 10
OWN 39
+18
19.3%
Ta'Quan Roberson pass complete to Justin Joly for 18 yds to the MASS 43 for a 1ST downSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MASSDrive 14END OF HALF1 play · 7 yds · 0:0022% → 22%
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CONNDrive 15FUMBLE2 plays · 14 yds · 0:0083% → 83%
Q3 14:48
1ST & 10
OWN 23
+14
17.4%
Ta'Quan Roberson run for 14 yds to the CONN 37 Ta'Quan Roberson fumbled, recovered by CONN Tyler Rudolph No Huddle-Shotgun Roberson,Ta'Quan rush right for 14 yards gain to the UConn37 fumbled by Roberson,Ta'Quan at UConn35 forced by Mahoney,Jordan recovered by UMass Rudolph,Tyler at UConn37, End Of Play.Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MASSDrive 16TD6 plays · 37 yds · 2:5024% → 32%
Q3 14:48
2ND & 9
OPP 36
+6
24.0%
Taisun Phommachanh pass complete to Anthony Simpson for 6 yds to the CONN 42Similar
Q3 14:48
3RD & 15
OPP 42
+15
22.8%
UConn Penalty, Illegal Use Of Hands (Pryce Yates) to the CONN 15 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 11:58
3RD & 5
OPP 10
+10
32.3%
Taisun Phommachanh pass complete to Gino Campiotti for 10 yds for a TD (Two-Point Conversion failed)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CONNDrive 17MISSED FG11 plays · 45 yds · 3:3773% → 76%
Q3 11:58
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+2
26.9%
Ta'Quan Roberson pass complete to Justin Joly for 2 yds to the CONN 27Similar
Q3 11:26
2ND & 8
OWN 27
+15
25.9%
Ta'Quan Roberson pass complete to Louis Hansen for 15 yds to the CONN 42 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 11:26
2ND & 12
OWN 40
+36
25.0%
Ta'Quan Roberson pass complete to Cameron Ross for 36 yds to the MASS 24 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 11:26
1ST & 10
OPP 24
-10
23.7%
No Huddle-Shotgun Edwards,Cam rush right for 7 yards gain to the UMass17 (Powell,Te'Rai) PENALTY UConn Holding (Haynes,Christian) 10 yards from UMass24 to UMass34. NO PLAY.Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MASSDrive 18PUNT4 plays · 7 yds · 1:2826% → 25%
Q3 6:53
4TH & 3
OWN 37
0
25.1%
Riley Moore punt for 33 yds, fair catch by Brett Buckman at the CONN 30Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CONNDrive 19TD9 plays · 70 yds · 5:4579% → 96%
Q3 6:53
2ND & 6
OWN 34
+7
21.0%
Ta'Quan Roberson pass complete to Geordon Porter for 7 yds to the CONN 41 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 6:53
2ND & 3
OPP 10
+6
19.0%
Ta'Quan Roberson pass complete to Camryn Edwards for 6 yds to the MASS 4 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 1:08
1ST & GOAL
OPP 4
+4
4.5%
Camryn Edwards 4 Yd Run (Two-Point Pass Conversion Failed) (Two-Point Conversion failed)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MASSDrive 20PUNT5 plays · -8 yds · 0:4710% → 9%
Q3 1:08
1ST & 10
OWN 25
-8
10.1%
Taisun Phommachanh sacked by Eric Watts for a loss of 8 yards to the MASS 17 Taisun Phommachanh fumbled, recovered by CONN Taisun Phommachanh , return for 0 yardsSimilar
Q3 0:21
4TH & 18
OWN 17
0
9.2%
Riley Moore punt for 34 yds, fair catch by Brett Buckman at the CONN 49Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CONNDrive 21PUNT5 plays · -14 yds · 1:5696% → 96%
Q3 0:21
1ST & 10
OWN 49
-10
4.4%
No Huddle Rosa,Victor rush right for 8 yards gain to the UMass43 (Mahoney,Jordan; Martin,Tyler) PENALTY UConn Holding (Senn,Valentin) 10 yards from UConn49 to UConn39. NO PLAY.Similar
Q3 0:00
1ST & 20
OWN 39
+2
4.5%
Ta'Quan Roberson pass complete to Justin Joly for 2 yds to the CONN 37Similar
Q4 15:00
2ND & 22
OWN 37
-7
4.7%
Ta'Quan Roberson sacked by Billy Wooden for a loss of 7 yards to the CONN 30Similar
Q4 13:25
4TH & 24
OWN 35
0
4.5%
George Caratan punt for 50 yds for a 1ST down , Isaac Ross returns for no gain to the MASS 27 for a 1ST downSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MASSDrive 22TD5 plays · 73 yds · 1:337% → 20%
Q4 13:25
2ND & 10
OWN 27
+40
6.8%
Taisun Phommachanh pass complete to Anthony Simpson for 40 yds to the CONN 33 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 13:25
1ST & GOAL
OPP 7
+6
8.2%
Taisun Phommachanh pass complete to Greg Desrosiers Jr. for 6 yds to the CONN 1Similar
Q4 11:52
2ND & GOAL
OPP 1
+1
20.2%
Kay'Ron Lynch-Adams run for 1 yd for a TD (Two-Point Conversion failed)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CONNDrive 23TD15 plays · 77 yds · 8:1290% → 99%
Q4 11:46
3RD & 5
OWN 48
+6
9.2%
Ta'Quan Roberson pass complete to Justin Joly for 6 yds to the MASS 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 11:46
1ST & 10
OPP 35
+4
8.8%
Ta'Quan Roberson pass complete to Geordon Porter for 4 yds to the MASS 31Similar
Q4 11:46
2ND & 7
OPP 21
-5
8.4%
PENALTY UConn False Start (Harris,Nick) 5 yards from UMass21 to UMass26. NO PLAY.Similar
Q4 3:34
2ND & GOAL
OPP 8
+8
1.2%
Camryn Edwards run for 8 yds for a TD (Two-Point Conversion failed)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MASSDrive 24TD5 plays · 78 yds · 1:252% → 8%
Q4 3:28
1ST & 10
OWN 22
+27
2.2%
Taisun Phommachanh pass complete to Anthony Simpson for 27 yds to the MASS 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 3:28
1ST & 10
OWN 49
+34
2.4%
Taisun Phommachanh pass complete to Anthony Simpson for 34 yds to the CONN 17 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 3:28
1ST & 10
OPP 17
+16
2.9%
Taisun Phommachanh pass complete to Kay'Ron Lynch-Adams for 16 yds to the CONN 1 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 2:03
1ST & GOAL
OPP 1
+1
7.6%
Kay'Ron Lynch-Adams run for 1 yd for a TD (Two-Point Conversion failed)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CONNDrive 25END OF GAME6 plays · 31 yds · 2:0397% → 98%
Q4 2:03
1ST & 10
OPP 18
-5
2.8%
PENALTY UConn False Start (Juergens,Kyle) 5 yards from UMass18 to UMass23. NO PLAY.Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
TD · Q2 6:02
Victor Rosa run for 17 yds for a TD (Joe McFadden KICK)
-15.1
TD · Q3 1:08
Camryn Edwards 4 Yd Run (Two-Point Pass Conversion Failed) (Two-Point Conversion failed)
-14.5
TD · Q4 11:52
Kay'Ron Lynch-Adams run for 1 yd for a TD (Two-Point Conversion failed)
+12.1