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VAN

Vanderbilt 24 at Tennessee 48

TENN
2023 · Week 13 · Nov 25, 2023 · Neyland Stadium
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Win probability · TENN
modelTENN aheadVAN aheadconfidence bandkey playTENN scoreVAN score
0%25%50%75%100%Q1Q2Q3Q4TDTDTDTDTDTDTDFGFGFGTDTDTDTDTDTDTDFGEnd of Game
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q3 6:51 · Jackson Ross punt for 47 yds , Jayden McGowan returns for no gain to the VAN 21
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Pregame priorHome team on offenseScore differentialScore diff ÷ offense timeoutsGarbage-time factorBlowout margin
+46.0+23.00−23.0−46.0Q1Q2Q3Q4Play 129Pregame prior+23.4Home team on offense+31.8Score differential+23.0Score diff ÷ offense timeouts+8.7Garbage-time factor+9.9Blowout margin+9.4
This game in five plays
  1. TD · Q1 3:13: Joe Milton III pass complete to McCallan Castles for 10 yds for a TD (Charles Campbell KICK) — TENN win probability +1.5 pts (now 95%) (top driver: TENN has the ball).
  2. TD · Q2 14:09: Joe Milton III pass complete to Jacob Warren for 34 yds for a TD (Charles Campbell KICK) — TENN win probability +1.6 pts (now 96%) (top driver: TENN has the ball).
  3. FG · Q2 8:29: Timeout Tennessee, clock 08:29 — TENN win probability +1.4 pts (now 96%) (top driver: TENN has the ball).
  4. TD · Q2 0:05: Joe Milton III run for 2 yds for a TD (Charles Campbell KICK) — TENN win probability +2.3 pts (now 97%) (top driver: TENN has the ball).
  5. TD · Q3 9:33: Joe Milton III pass complete to Ramel Keyton for 46 yds for a TD (Charles Campbell KICK) — TENN win probability +1.4 pts (now 100%) (top driver: TENN has the ball).
Was that the right call?

Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works

Fourth downs
TENN made the numbers' call on 5 of 7VAN made the numbers' call on 6 of 8
  1. Q1 10:27TENN 4th & 2 at TENN 32, tied
    Close callPunted · 93.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    93.9%
    57% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    93.9%−<0.1
    average punt
  2. Q1 9:29VAN 4th & 8 at VAN 35, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 6.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    6.3%−0.1
    34% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    6.4%
    average punt
  3. Q1 6:12TENN 4th & 8 at VAN 46, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 92.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    92.7%−<0.1
    34% to convert
    Field goal
    92.6%−0.1
    23% to make
    PuntTheir call
    92.7%
    average punt
  4. Q1 4:16VAN 4th & 5 at VAN 14, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 7.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    7.6%−0.1
    40% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    7.7%
    average punt
  5. Q1 0:21VAN 4th & 3 at TENN 46, down 7
    Close callPunted · 7.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    7.9%
    52% to convert
    Field goal
    7.5%−0.4
    23% to make
    PuntTheir call
    7.7%−0.2
    average punt
  6. Q2 8:29VAN 4th & 6 at TENN 21, down 14
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 6.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    6.6%−0.1
    38% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    6.6%
    74% to make
    Punt
    5.0%−1.6
    average punt
  7. Q2 6:04TENN 4th & 5 at VAN 6, up 11
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 92.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    92.2%−<0.1
    33% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    92.2%
    91% to make
    Punt
    90.6%−1.7
    average punt
  8. Q3 11:01VAN 4th & 10 at TENN 39, down 21
    Close callPunted · 2.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    2.4%
    30% to convert
    Field goal
    2.3%−0.1
    36% to make
    PuntTheir call
    2.4%−<0.1
    average punt
  9. Q3 7:48VAN 4th & 6 at VAN 37, down 28
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 0.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    0.4%−<0.1
    40% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    0.4%
    average punt
  10. Q3 6:51TENN 4th & 9 at TENN 18, up 28
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 99.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    99.6%−0.1
    30% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    99.7%
    average punt
  11. Q3 6:51TENN 4th & 9 at TENN 18, up 28
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 99.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    99.6%−0.1
    30% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    99.7%
    average punt
  12. Q3 3:43VAN 4th & 16 at VAN 38, down 28
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 0.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    0.1%−0.2
    15% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    0.3%
    average punt
  13. Q4 13:49VAN 4th & 11 at VAN 45, down 35
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 0.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    0.1%−0.1
    26% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    0.2%
    average punt
  14. Q4 10:46TENN 4th & 3 at VAN 23, up 28
    Close callKicked a field goal · 99.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    99.9%
    52% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    99.8%−0.1
    70% to make
    Punt
    99.4%−0.4
    average punt
  15. Q4 0:28TENN 4th & 8 at VAN 9, up 21
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 99.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    99.5%−0.1
    27% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    99.6%
    89% to make
    Punt
    99.2%−0.4
    average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
TENN made the numbers' call on 6 of 6VAN made the numbers' call on 3 of 3
  1. Q1 14:00TENN Touchdown, up 6 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    94.8%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    94.8%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  2. Q1 11:34VAN Touchdown, down 1 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    6.0%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    6.0%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  3. Q1 3:13TENN Touchdown, up 6 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    92.9%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    92.9%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  4. Q2 14:09TENN Touchdown, up 13 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    93.9%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    93.9%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  5. Q2 0:05TENN Touchdown, up 20 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    97.8%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    97.8%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  6. Q3 9:33TENN Touchdown, up 27 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    99.9%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    99.8%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  7. Q3 0:13TENN Touchdown, up 34 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    100.0%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    100.0%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  8. Q4 12:47VAN Touchdown, down 29 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    0.2%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    0.2%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  9. Q4 5:38VAN Touchdown, down 22 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    0.8%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    0.8%−<0.1
    45% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chart
TENNDrive 1TD
4 plays · 76 yds · 0:5596% → 96%
Q1 14:55
1ST & 10
OWN 24
+13
95.8%
Joe Milton III pass complete to Squirrel White for 13 yds to the TENN 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 14:55
1ST & 10
OWN 37
+7
95.8%
Joe Milton III pass complete to Chas Nimrod for 7 yds to the TENN 44Similar
Q1 14:00
2ND & 3
OWN 44
+56
95.7%
Joe Milton III pass complete to Ramel Keyton for 56 yds for a TD (Charles Campbell KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
VANDrive 2TD
6 plays · 73 yds · 2:194% → 5%
Q1 13:53
1ST & 10
OWN 27
+17
95.7%
Sedrick Alexander run for 17 yds to the VAN 44 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 13:53
1ST & 10
OWN 44
+16
95.7%
AJ Swann pass complete to Sedrick Alexander for 16 yds to the TENN 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 13:53
1ST & 10
OPP 40
+26
95.6%
Jayden McGowan run for 11 yds to the TENN 29 for a 1ST down Tennessee Penalty, Face Mask (15 yards) (Tyler Baron) to the TENN 14 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 11:34
1ST & 15
OPP 19
+19
95.0%
AJ Swann pass complete to Junior Sherrill for 19 yds for a TD (Jacob Borcila KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TENNDrive 3PUNT
5 plays · 8 yds · 0:5295% → 95%
Q1 11:19
1ST & 10
OWN 24
+4
95.1%
Joe Milton III pass complete to for 4 ydsSimilar
Q1 11:19
2ND & 10
OWN 24
0
95.1%
Joe Milton III pass incomplete to Squirrel WhiteSimilar
Q1 11:19
3RD & 10
OWN 24
+8
95.0%
Joe Milton III pass complete to Ramel Keyton for 8 yds to the TENN 32Similar
Q1 10:27
4TH & 2
OWN 32
0
94.8%
Jackson Ross punt for 35 yds, fair catch by Jayden McGowan at the VAN 33Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
VANDrive 4PUNT
5 plays · 2 yds · 0:585% → 5%
Q1 10:27
1ST & 10
OWN 33
+2
94.9%
Junior Sherrill run for 2 yds to the VAN 35Similar
Q1 10:27
2ND & 8
OWN 35
0
94.9%
AJ Swann pass incomplete to Jayden McGowanSimilar
Q1 10:27
3RD & 8
OWN 35
0
94.9%
AJ Swann pass incomplete to Richie HoskinsSimilar
Q1 9:29
4TH & 8
OWN 35
+10
94.8%
Matthew Hayball punt for 57 yds , Dee Williams returns for 10 yds to the TENN 18Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TENNDrive 5PUNT
10 plays · 36 yds · 3:1795% → 94%
Q1 9:29
1ST & 10
OWN 18
+1
94.7%
Jaylen Wright run for 1 yd to the TENN 19Similar
Q1 9:29
2ND & 9
OWN 19
+12
94.7%
Joe Milton III pass complete to Ramel Keyton for 12 yds to the TENN 31 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 9:29
1ST & 10
OWN 31
+1
94.7%
Jaylen Wright run for 1 yd to the TENN 32Similar
Q1 9:29
2ND & 9
OWN 32
0
94.7%
Joe Milton III pass incomplete to Kaleb WebbSimilar
Q1 9:29
3RD & 9
OWN 32
+20
94.7%
Joe Milton III pass complete to Jacob Warren for 20 yds to the VAN 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 9:29
1ST & 10
OPP 48
-10
94.8%
No Huddle-Shotgun Wright,Jaylen rush middle for 5 yards gain to the VANDY43 (Russell,Tyson; Patterson,Langston) PENALTY TENN Holding (Mincey,Gerald) 10 yards from VANDY48 to TENN42. NO PLAY.Similar
Q1 9:29
1ST & 20
OWN 42
0
94.8%
Jaylen Wright run for no gain to the TENN 42Similar
Q1 9:29
2ND & 20
OWN 42
0
94.7%
Joe Milton III pass incomplete to Jaylen WrightSimilar
Q1 9:29
3RD & 20
OWN 42
+12
94.7%
Joe Milton III pass complete to Squirrel White for 12 yds to the VAN 46Similar
Q1 6:12
4TH & 8
OPP 46
0
93.8%
Jackson Ross punt for 37 ydsSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
VANDrive 6PUNT
6 plays · 5 yds · 1:566% → 7%
Q1 6:12
1ST & 10
OWN 9
+7
93.8%
No Huddle-Shotgun Smith,Patrick rush middle for 7 yards gain to the VANDY16 (Telander,Jeremiah; Brooks,Will) PENALTY VANDY Holding offsetting TENN Offside offsetting. NO PLAY.Similar
Q1 6:12
1ST & 10
OWN 9
+3
93.8%
Patrick Smith run for 3 yds to the VAN 12Similar
Q1 6:12
2ND & 7
OWN 12
+2
93.8%
Patrick Smith run for 2 yds to the VAN 14Similar
Q1 6:12
3RD & 5
OWN 14
0
93.8%
AJ Swann pass incomplete to Will SheppardSimilar
Q1 4:16
4TH & 5
OWN 14
+14
93.4%
Matthew Hayball punt for 39 yds , Dee Williams returns for 14 yds to the VAN 39Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TENNDrive 7TD
5 plays · 39 yds · 1:0394% → 95%
Q1 4:16
1ST & 10
OPP 39
+3
93.7%
Jabari Small run for 3 yds to the VAN 36Similar
Q1 4:16
2ND & 7
OPP 36
+26
93.7%
Jabari Small run for 26 yds to the VAN 10 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 4:16
1ST & GOAL
OPP 10
0
93.7%
Jabari Small run for no gain to the VAN 10Similar
Q1 3:13
2ND & GOAL
OPP 10
+10
95.2%
Joe Milton III pass complete to McCallan Castles for 10 yds for a TD (Charles Campbell KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
VANDrive 8PUNT
7 plays · 29 yds · 2:466% → 7%
Q1 3:07
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+22
94.1%
AJ Swann pass complete to Quincy Skinner Jr. for 22 yds to the VAN 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 2:36
1ST & 10
OWN 47
0
93.8%
AJ Swann pass complete to Quincy Skinner Jr. for no gain to the VAN 47Similar
Q1 2:36
2ND & 10
OWN 47
+3
93.9%
Sedrick Alexander run for 3 yds to the 50 yard lineSimilar
Q1 2:36
3RD & 7
50
+4
93.8%
AJ Swann pass complete to Sedrick Alexander for 4 yds to the TENN 46Similar
Q1 0:21
4TH & 3
OPP 46
+19
93.5%
punt blocked by Kalib Perry blocked by Kalib PerrySimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TENNDrive 9TD
5 plays · 73 yds · 0:5194% → 96%
Q1 0:00
1ST & 10
OWN 27
+28
94.4%
Joe Milton III pass complete to Jacob Warren for 28 yds to the VAN 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 14:53
1ST & 10
OPP 45
+7
94.7%
Joe Milton III pass complete to for 7 yds fumbled, recovered by VAN Shotgun Milton III,Joe pass complete short right to White,Squirrel for 7 yards to the VANDY38, End Of Play. The previous play is under review. The ruling on the field has been overturned. The runner was down prior to losing the ball (OVERTURNED PLAY: Shotgun #7 J.Milton III pass complete short right to #10 S.White for 8 yards to the VANDY37 fumbled by #10 S.White at VANDY37 forced by #23 J.Mahoney recovered by VANDY #1 C.Taylor at VANDY37, End Of Play).Similar
Q2 14:53
2ND & 3
OPP 38
+4
94.6%
Joe Milton III run for 4 yds to the VAN 34 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 14:09
1ST & 10
OPP 34
+34
96.3%
Joe Milton III pass complete to Jacob Warren for 34 yds for a TD (Charles Campbell KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
VANDrive 10FG
16 plays · 54 yds · 5:405% → 6%
Q2 14:09
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+17
95.1%
AJ Swann pass complete to Will Sheppard for 17 yds to the VAN 42 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 14:09
1ST & 10
OWN 42
+10
95.0%
AJ Swann pass complete to London Humphreys for 10 yds to the TENN 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 14:09
1ST & 10
OPP 48
0
94.8%
AJ Swann pass incomplete to Will SheppardSimilar
Q2 14:09
2ND & 10
OPP 48
+11
95.0%
Patrick Smith run for 11 yds to the TENN 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 14:09
1ST & 10
OPP 37
+6
94.8%
Smith,Patrick rush right for 6 yards gain to the TENN31 (Herring,Elijah) PENALTY VANDY Holding offsetting TENN Offside offsetting. NO PLAY.Similar
Q2 14:09
1ST & 10
OPP 37
+2
94.8%
Sedrick Alexander run for 2 yds to the TENN 35Similar
Q2 14:09
2ND & 8
OPP 35
+1
94.7%
AJ Swann pass complete to Justin Ball for 1 yd to the TENN 34Similar
Q2 10:44
3RD & 7
OPP 34
+9
94.6%
Patrick Smith run for 9 yds to the TENN 25 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 10:44
1ST & 10
OPP 25
+3
94.4%
Patrick Smith run for 3 yds to the TENN 28Similar
Q2 10:44
2ND & 13
OPP 28
+7
94.7%
AJ Swann pass complete to London Humphreys for 7 yds to the TENN 21Similar
Q2 10:44
3RD & 6
OPP 21
0
94.5%
AJ Swann pass incomplete to Richie HoskinsSimilar
Q2 8:29
4TH & 6
OPP 21
+40
94.1%
Jacob Borcila 40 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TENNDrive 11FG
8 plays · 59 yds · 2:1796% → 96%
Q2 8:21
1ST & 10
OWN 35
+9
95.5%
Jaylen Wright run for 9 yds to the TENN 44Similar
Q2 8:21
2ND & 1
OWN 44
+16
95.7%
Jaylen Wright run for 16 yds to the VAN 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 8:21
1ST & 10
OPP 40
+29
95.8%
Joe Milton III pass complete to McCallan Castles for 29 yds to the VAN 11 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 8:21
1ST & 10
OPP 11
+6
95.7%
Jaylen Wright run for 6 yds to the VAN 5Similar
Q2 8:21
2ND & 4
OPP 5
0
95.3%
Joe Milton III pass incomplete to McCallan CastlesSimilar
Q2 8:21
3RD & 4
OPP 5
+1
95.2%
Joe Milton III pass complete to Dee Williams for 1 yd to the VAN 6Similar
Q2 6:04
4TH & 5
OPP 6
+24
95.7%
Charles Campbell 24 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
VANDrive 12PUNT
9 plays · 13 yds · 3:305% → 5%
Q2 6:04
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+9
95.2%
AJ Swann pass complete to London Humphreys for 9 yds to the VAN 34Similar
Q2 6:04
2ND & 1
OWN 34
+3
94.9%
Sedrick Alexander run for 3 yds to the VAN 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 6:04
1ST & 10
OWN 37
+27
95.1%
AJ Swann pass complete to Will Sheppard for 27 yds to the TENN 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 6:04
1ST & 10
OPP 36
-4
94.7%
AJ Swann sacked for a loss of 4 yards to the TENN 40Similar
Q2 6:04
2ND & 14
OPP 40
0
95.0%
AJ Swann pass incomplete to Justin BallSimilar
Q2 6:04
3RD & 39
OWN 35
+3
95.3%
Sedrick Alexander run for 3 yds to the VAN 38Similar
Q2 6:04
4TH & 36
OWN 38
0
95.4%
PENALTY VANDY UNS: Unsportsmanlike Conduct offsetting TENN UNS: Unsportsmanlike Conduct offsetting TENN UNS: Unsportsmanlike Conduct offsetting. NO PLAY.Similar
Q2 2:34
4TH & 36
OWN 38
+20
95.4%
Matthew Hayball punt for 36 yds , Dee Williams returns for 20 yds to the TENN 46Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TENNDrive 13TD
10 plays · 54 yds · 2:2996% → 97%
Q2 2:34
1ST & 10
OWN 46
+4
96.3%
Jaylen Wright run for 4 yds to the 50 yard lineSimilar
Q2 2:34
2ND & 6
50
+10
96.3%
Joe Milton III run for 10 yds to the VAN 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 2:34
1ST & 10
OPP 40
-7
96.3%
Joe Milton III sacked by Kane Patterson for a loss of 7 yards to the VAN 47Similar
Q2 2:34
2ND & 12
OPP 42
+15
96.3%
Jaylen Wright run for 15 yds to the VAN 27 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 2:34
1ST & 10
OPP 27
+8
96.4%
Joe Milton III pass complete to Squirrel White for 8 yds to the VAN 19Similar
Q2 2:34
2ND & 2
OPP 19
-5
96.2%
Jaylen Wright run for 5 yds to the VAN 14 for a 1ST down Tennessee Penalty, Offensive Holding (Ollie Lane) to the VAN 24 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 2:34
1ST & 10
OPP 24
+9
96.3%
Joe Milton III pass complete to Jaylen Wright for 9 yds to the VAN 15Similar
Q2 0:05
1ST & GOAL
OPP 2
+2
97.4%
Joe Milton III run for 2 yds for a TD (Charles Campbell KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
VANDrive 14END OF HALF
2 plays · -2 yds · 0:002% → 2%
Q2 0:00
1ST & 10
OWN 25
-2
97.8%
Kneel down by Vanderbilt at VANDY23 for loss of 2 yards.Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
VANDrive 15PUNT
10 plays · 44 yds · 3:553% → 2%
Q3 14:56
1ST & 10
OWN 17
+5
97.4%
No Huddle-Shotgun Swann,AJ pass complete short right to Humphreys,London for 8 yards to the VANDY25 (Slaughter,Doneiko; McCollough,Jaylen) PENALTY TENN Offside (Baron,Tyler) 5 yards from VANDY17 to VANDY22. NO PLAY.Similar
Q3 14:56
1ST & 5
OWN 22
+1
97.3%
Sedrick Alexander run for 1 yd to the VAN 23Similar
Q3 14:56
2ND & 4
OWN 23
+15
97.3%
Shotgun Swann,AJ sacked for loss of 1 yard to the VANDY22 (Bailey,Dominic) PENALTY TENN Personal Foul (Thomas,Omari) 15 yards from VANDY23 to VANDY38, 1ST DOWN. NO PLAY.Similar
Q3 14:56
1ST & 10
OWN 38
+6
97.3%
AJ Swann pass complete to Quincy Skinner Jr. for 6 yds to the VAN 44Similar
Q3 14:56
2ND & 4
OWN 44
+15
97.2%
Tennessee Penalty, Face Mask (15 yards) (Omari Thomas) to the TENN 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 14:56
1ST & 10
OPP 39
0
97.2%
AJ Swann pass incomplete to Logan KyleSimilar
Q3 14:56
2ND & 10
OPP 39
0
97.2%
Sedrick Alexander run for no gain to the TENN 39Similar
Q3 14:56
3RD & 10
OPP 39
0
97.3%
AJ Swann pass incomplete to Jayden McGowanSimilar
Q3 11:01
4TH & 10
OPP 39
0
97.7%
Matthew Hayball punt for 39 yds for a touchbackSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TENNDrive 16TD
8 plays · 80 yds · 1:2898% → 100%
Q3 11:01
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+14
98.0%
Jaylen Wright run for 14 yds to the TENN 34 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 11:01
1ST & 10
OWN 34
+4
98.0%
Jaylen Wright run for 4 yds to the TENN 38Similar
Q3 11:01
2ND & 6
OWN 38
+16
98.1%
Joe Milton III pass complete to Chas Nimrod for 16 yds to the VAN 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 10:06
1ST & 10
OPP 46
0
98.2%
Joe Milton III pass incomplete to Ramel KeytonSimilar
Q3 10:06
2ND & 10
OPP 46
0
98.1%
Joe Milton III pass incomplete to Squirrel WhiteSimilar
Q3 9:33
3RD & 10
OPP 46
+46
99.5%
Joe Milton III pass complete to Ramel Keyton for 46 yds for a TD (Charles Campbell KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
VANDrive 17PUNT
8 plays · 12 yds · 1:450% → 0%
Q3 9:33
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+8
99.6%
No Huddle-Shotgun Swann,AJ pass incomplete short left to Sheppard,Will, 1ST DOWN, PENALTY TENN Pass Interference (Slaughter,Doneiko) 8 yards from VANDY25 to VANDY33, 1ST DOWN. NO PLAY.Similar
Q3 9:33
1ST & 10
OWN 33
+8
99.6%
AJ Swann pass complete to Junior Sherrill for 8 yds to the VAN 41Similar
Q3 9:33
2ND & 2
OWN 41
0
99.5%
No Huddle-Shotgun Swann,AJ pass incomplete deep right to Sherrill,Junior PENALTY TENN Roughing The Passer offsetting VANDY Holding offsetting. NO PLAY.Similar
Q3 9:33
2ND & 2
OWN 41
+4
99.5%
Patrick Smith run for 4 yds to the VAN 37Similar
Q3 8:03
3RD & 6
OWN 37
0
99.7%
AJ Swann pass incomplete to Quincy Skinner Jr.Similar
Q3 7:48
4TH & 6
OWN 37
0
99.7%
Matthew Hayball punt for 46 ydsSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TENNDrive 18PUNT
5 plays · 1 yds · 0:57100% → 100%
Q3 7:48
1ST & 10
OWN 17
0
99.6%
Joe Milton III pass incomplete to Ramel KeytonSimilar
Q3 7:48
2ND & 10
OWN 17
+1
99.6%
Jabari Small run for 1 yd to the TENN 18Similar
Q3 7:48
3RD & 9
OWN 18
0
99.6%
Joe Milton III pass incomplete to Kaleb WebbSimilar
Q3 6:51
4TH & 9
OWN 18
0
99.7%
Jackson Ross punt for 47 yds , Jayden McGowan returns for no gain to the VAN 31Similar
Q3 6:51
4TH & 9
OWN 18
0
99.7%
Jackson Ross punt for 47 yds , Jayden McGowan returns for no gain to the VAN 21Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
VANDrive 19PUNT
8 plays · 17 yds · 3:080% → 0%
Q3 6:51
1ST & 10
OWN 21
+2
99.7%
Sedrick Alexander run for 2 yds to the VAN 23Similar
Q3 6:51
2ND & 8
OWN 23
+21
99.7%
AJ Swann pass complete to Junior Sherrill for 21 yds to the VAN 44 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 6:51
1ST & 10
OWN 44
+8
99.7%
Sedrick Alexander run for 8 yds to the TENN 48Similar
Q3 6:51
2ND & 2
OPP 48
+6
99.7%
Jayden McGowan run for 6 yds to the VAN 46Similar
Q3 6:51
3RD & 8
OWN 46
-8
99.7%
AJ Swann sacked by Tyler Baron for a loss of 8 yards to the VAN 38Similar
Q3 3:43
4TH & 16
OWN 38
0
99.8%
Matthew Hayball punt for 43 ydsSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TENNDrive 20TD
10 plays · 81 yds · 3:30100% → 100%
Q3 3:43
1ST & 10
OWN 19
+27
99.8%
Joe Milton III pass complete to Squirrel White for 27 yds to the TENN 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 3:43
1ST & 10
OWN 46
+3
99.9%
Dylan Sampson run for 3 yds to the TENN 49Similar
Q3 3:43
2ND & 7
OWN 49
0
99.9%
Joe Milton III pass incomplete to Ramel KeytonSimilar
Q3 3:43
3RD & 7
OWN 49
+8
99.9%
Joe Milton III pass complete to McCallan Castles for 8 yds to the VAN 43 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 3:43
1ST & 10
OPP 43
+16
99.9%
Joe Milton III pass complete to Squirrel White for 16 yds to the VAN 27 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 3:43
1ST & 10
OPP 27
+5
99.9%
Dylan Sampson run for 5 yds to the VAN 22Similar
Q3 3:43
2ND & 5
OPP 22
+8
99.9%
Joe Milton III pass complete to Kaleb Webb for 8 yds to the VAN 14 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 3:43
1ST & 10
OPP 14
+2
99.9%
Dylan Sampson run for 2 yds to the VAN 12Similar
Q3 3:43
2ND & 8
OPP 12
+10
99.9%
Joe Milton III pass complete to Chas Nimrod for 10 yds to the VAN 2 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 0:13
1ST & GOAL
OPP 2
+2
99.9%
Joe Milton III run for 2 yds for a TD (Charles Campbell KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
VANDrive 21PUNT
7 plays · 20 yds · 1:110% → 0%
Q3 0:00
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+15
99.9%
Tennessee Penalty, unsportsmanlike conduct (15 Yards) to the VAN 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 46
+5
99.9%
Sedrick Alexander run for 5 yds to the TENN 49Similar
Q4 15:00
2ND & 5
OPP 49
0
99.9%
Ken Seals pass incomplete to Will SheppardSimilar
Q4 15:00
3RD & 5
OPP 49
+4
99.9%
Ken Seals pass complete to Quincy Skinner Jr. for 4 yds to the TENN 45Similar
Q4 13:49
4TH & 11
OWN 45
0
99.9%
Matthew Hayball punt for 43 yds , Dee Williams returns for no gain to the TENN 8 Dee Williams fumbled, recovered by VAN Langston Patterson Hayball,Matt punt 43 yards to the TENN12 Williams,Dee return for loss of 4 yards to the TENN12 fumbled by Williams,Dee at TENN12 recovered by VANDY Patterson,Langston at TENN08, End Of Play.Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
VANDrive 22TD
4 plays · 8 yds · 1:020% → 0%
Q4 13:49
1ST & GOAL
OPP 8
+3
99.9%
Ken Seals run for 3 yds to the TENN 5Similar
Q4 13:49
2ND & GOAL
OPP 5
+4
99.9%
Ken Seals pass complete to Justin Ball for 4 yds to the TENN 1Similar
Q4 12:47
3RD & GOAL
OPP 1
+1
99.9%
Ken Seals run for 1 yd for a TD (Jacob Borcila KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TENNDrive 23MISSED FG
9 plays · 42 yds · 2:01100% → 100%
Q4 12:47
1ST & 10
OWN 35
+6
99.9%
Nico Iamaleava pass complete to Squirrel White for 6 yds to the TENN 41Similar
Q4 12:47
2ND & 4
OWN 41
+5
99.9%
Nico Iamaleava pass complete to Kaleb Webb for 5 yds to the TENN 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 12:47
1ST & 10
OWN 46
+13
99.9%
Nico Iamaleava pass complete to Squirrel White for 13 yds to the VAN 41 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 12:47
1ST & 10
OPP 41
+11
99.9%
Nico Iamaleava run for 11 yds to the VAN 30 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 12:47
1ST & 10
OPP 30
+5
99.9%
Nico Iamaleava pass complete to Squirrel White for 5 yds to the VAN 25Similar
Q4 12:47
2ND & 5
OPP 25
+2
99.9%
Dylan Sampson run for 2 yds to the VAN 23Similar
Q4 12:47
3RD & 3
OPP 23
0
99.9%
Nico Iamaleava pass incomplete to Jacob WarrenSimilar
Q4 10:46
4TH & 3
OPP 23
+41
99.9%
Charles Campbell 41 yd FG MISSEDSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
VANDrive 24TD
9 plays · 77 yds · 5:080% → 1%
Q4 10:46
1ST & 10
OWN 23
+10
99.9%
No Huddle-Shotgun Seals,Ken pass incomplete short right to Skinner Jr.,Quincy PENALTY TENN Holding (Burrell,Warren) 10 yards from VANDY23 to VANDY33, 1ST DOWN. NO PLAY.Similar
Q4 10:46
1ST & 10
OWN 33
+13
99.9%
Patrick Smith run for 13 yds to the VAN 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 10:46
1ST & 10
OWN 46
0
99.9%
Ken Seals pass incomplete to Quincy Skinner Jr.Similar
Q4 10:46
2ND & 10
OWN 46
+4
99.9%
Ken Seals pass complete to Junior Sherrill for 4 yds to the 50 yard lineSimilar
Q4 10:46
3RD & 6
50
+22
99.9%
Ken Seals pass complete to Justin Ball for 22 yds to the TENN 28 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 10:46
1ST & 10
OPP 28
+1
99.9%
Patrick Smith run for 1 yd to the TENN 29Similar
Q4 10:46
2ND & 11
OPP 29
+12
99.9%
Ken Seals pass complete to Kamrean Johnson for 12 yds to the TENN 17 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 10:46
1ST & 10
OPP 17
+3
99.9%
Patrick Smith run for 3 yds to the TENN 20Similar
Q4 5:38
1ST & GOAL
OPP 5
+5
99.5%
Ken Seals pass complete to Quincy Skinner Jr. for 5 yds for a TD (Jacob Borcila KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TENNDrive 25FG
20 plays · 66 yds · 5:10100% → 100%
Q4 5:38
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+4
99.8%
Nico Iamaleava pass complete to Chas Nimrod for 4 yds to the TENN 29Similar
Q4 5:38
2ND & 6
OWN 29
+9
99.8%
Dylan Sampson run for 9 yds to the TENN 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 5:38
1ST & 10
OWN 38
+7
99.8%
Nico Iamaleava pass complete to Hunter Salmon for 7 yds to the TENN 45Similar
Q4 5:38
2ND & 3
OWN 45
0
99.8%
Nico Iamaleava pass incomplete to Squirrel WhiteSimilar
Q4 5:38
3RD & 3
OWN 45
+4
99.8%
Nico Iamaleava run for 4 yds to the TENN 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 5:38
1ST & 10
OWN 49
+3
99.8%
Dylan Sampson run for 3 yds to the VAN 48Similar
Q4 5:38
2ND & 7
OPP 48
+9
99.8%
Nico Iamaleava pass complete to Kaleb Webb for 9 yds to the VAN 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 5:38
1ST & 10
OPP 39
+3
99.8%
Dylan Sampson run for 3 yds to the VAN 36Similar
Q4 3:20
2ND & 7
OPP 36
+3
99.9%
Dylan Sampson run for 3 yds to the VAN 33Similar
Q4 3:20
3RD & 4
OPP 33
+5
99.9%
Dylan Sampson run for 5 yds to the VAN 28 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 3:20
1ST & 10
OPP 28
0
99.9%
Nico Iamaleava pass incomplete to Hunter SalmonSimilar
Q4 3:20
2ND & 10
OPP 28
+3
99.9%
Nico Iamaleava pass complete to Squirrel White for 3 yds to the VAN 25Similar
Q4 3:20
3RD & 7
OPP 25
+14
99.9%
Nico Iamaleava pass complete to Hunter Salmon for 14 yds to the VAN 11 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 3:20
1ST & 10
OPP 11
+2
99.9%
Dylan Sampson run for 2 yds to the VAN 9Similar
Q4 3:20
2ND & 8
OPP 9
0
99.9%
Gaston Moore pass incomplete to Hunter SalmonSimilar
Q4 3:20
3RD & 8
OPP 9
0
99.9%
Gaston Moore pass incomplete to Kaleb WebbSimilar
Q4 0:28
4TH & 8
OPP 9
+27
99.9%
Charles Campbell 27 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
VANDrive 26END OF GAME
2 plays · 2 yds · 0:000% → 0%
Q4 0:00
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+2
99.7%
AJ Newberry run for 2 yds to the VAN 27Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
TD · Q2 0:05
Joe Milton III run for 2 yds for a TD (Charles Campbell KICK)
+2.3
TD · Q2 14:09
Joe Milton III pass complete to Jacob Warren for 34 yds for a TD (Charles Campbell KICK)
+1.6
TD · Q1 3:13
Joe Milton III pass complete to McCallan Castles for 10 yds for a TD (Charles Campbell KICK)
+1.5
YardLine · model v10Model estimate - not betting advice · Data provided by CollegeFootballData.com