2023 · Week 13 · Nov 25, 2023 · Williams-Brice Stadium
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Win probability · SC
modelSC aheadCLEM aheadconfidence bandkey playSC scoreCLEM score
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q2 5:07 · Jonathan Weitz 49 yd FG GOOD
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Home team on offensePregame priorScore differentialGarbage-time factorScore diff ÷ offense timeoutsScore diff ÷ seconds remaining
This game in five plays
- TD · Q1 6:39: Luke Doty run for 1 yd for a TD (Mitch Jeter KICK) — SC win probability +3.2 pts (now 34%) (top driver: SC has the ball).
- FG · Q1 0:43: Jonathan Weitz 50 yd FG GOOD — SC win probability +1.1 pts (now 34%) (top driver: CLEM has the ball).
- FG · Q2 5:07: Jonathan Weitz 49 yd FG GOOD — SC win probability +2.0 pts (now 36%) (top driver: CLEM has the ball).
- FG · Q3 13:16: Jonathan Weitz 42 yd FG GOOD — CLEM win probability +2.1 pts (now 74%) (top driver: CLEM has the ball).
- FG · Q3 13:16: Robert Gunn III kickoff for 65 yds for a touchback Clemson Penalty, Defensive Offside (Wade Woodaz) — CLEM win probability +2.4 pts (now 75%) (top driver: CLEM has the ball).
Was that the right call?
Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works
Fourth downs
SC made the numbers' call on 10 of 11CLEM made the numbers' call on 7 of 9
- Q1 12:16CLEM 4th & 11 at CLEM 32, up 7Agrees with the numbersPunted · 66.9% before the snapGo for it66.8%−0.226% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call67.0%average punt
- Q1 6:39SC 4th & 1 at CLEM 1, down 7Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 33.7% before the snapGo for itTheir call33.6%59% to convertField goal33.0%−0.694% to makePunt31.3%−2.3average punt
- Q1 0:43CLEM 4th & 9 at SC 33, tiedAgrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 62.1% before the snapGo for it62.0%−0.132% to convertField goalTheir call62.0%49% to makePunt61.7%−0.3average punt
- Q2 15:00SC 4th & 1 at SC 44, down 3Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 37.5% before the snapGo for itTheir call37.7%70% to convertField goalOut of rangePunt36.9%−0.8average punt
- Q2 13:29SC 4th & 5 at midfield, down 3Close callPunted · 37.9% before the snapGo for it38.1%41% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call38.0%−0.1average punt
- Q2 9:10CLEM 4th & 3 at CLEM 42, up 3Close callPunted · 62.2% before the snapGo for it62.4%52% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call62.2%−0.2average punt
- Q2 7:44SC 4th & 18 at SC 5, down 3Agrees with the numbersPunted · 35.7% before the snapGo for it32.8%−3.211% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call36.0%average punt
- Q2 5:07CLEM 4th & 10 at SC 32, up 3Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 62.0% before the snapGo for it60.8%−0.430% to convertField goalTheir call61.2%51% to makePunt60.1%−1.2average punt
- Q2 4:02SC 4th & 6 at SC 34, down 6Agrees with the numbersPunted · 33.4% before the snapGo for it33.0%−0.740% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call33.7%average punt
- Q2 1:26CLEM 4th & 13 at CLEM 30, up 6Agrees with the numbersPunted · 66.3% before the snapGo for it64.5%−1.620% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call66.1%average punt
- Q2 0:53SC 4th & 18 at SC 35, down 6Agrees with the numbersPunted · 32.4% before the snapGo for it30.3%−2.312% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call32.6%average punt
- Q3 13:16CLEM 4th & 4 at SC 25, up 6Close callKicked a field goal · 68.6% before the snapGo for it68.6%47% to convertField goalTheir call67.9%−0.766% to makePunt61.1%−7.5average punt
- Q3 11:10SC 4th & 27 at SC 13, down 9Agrees with the numbersPunted · 27.0% before the snapGo for it24.5%−3.86% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call28.2%average punt
- Q3 5:12SC 4th & 8 at SC 35, down 9Agrees with the numbersPunted · 24.7% before the snapGo for it24.6%−1.534% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call26.1%average punt
- Q3 0:00CLEM 4th & 10 at SC 47, up 9Agrees with the numbersPunted · 78.2% before the snapGo for it77.9%−1.229% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call79.1%average punt
- Q4 14:33SC 4th & 10 at SC 15, down 9Agrees with the numbersPunted · 20.5% before the snapGo for it18.0%−3.128% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call21.1%average punt
- Q4 11:54CLEM 4th & 6 at CLEM 46, up 9Agrees with the numbersPunted · 78.4% before the snapGo for it78.6%−0.340% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call78.9%average punt
- Q4 9:49SC 4th & 7 at CLEM 49, down 9Agrees with the numbersPunted · 18.2% before the snapGo for it17.9%−0.537% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call18.3%average punt
- Q4 5:57CLEM 4th & 8 at CLEM 42, up 9Agrees with the numbersPunted · 87.4% before the snapGo for it86.7%−1.534% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call88.2%average punt
- Q4 3:19SC 4th & 3 at SC 41, down 9Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 11.6% before the snapGo for itTheir call11.4%52% to convertField goalOut of rangePunt10.0%−1.3average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
SC made the numbers' call on 1 of 1CLEM made the numbers' call on 1 of 1
- Q1 14:25CLEM Touchdown, up 6 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call67.2%97% to makeGo for two67.2%−<0.145% to convert
- Q1 6:39SC Touchdown, down 1 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call36.3%97% to makeGo for two36.3%−<0.145% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chartSCDrive 1FUMBLE RETURN TD3 plays · 17 yds · 0:3530% → 31%
SCDrive 2INT2 plays · 0 yds · 0:0031% → 31%
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CLEMDrive 3PUNT5 plays · -1 yds · 2:0070% → 69%
SCDrive 4TD16 plays · 81 yds · 5:3731% → 34%
Q1 12:16
2ND & 9
OWN 20
+15
30.5%
No Huddle-Shotgun Rattler,Spencer pass incomplete short middle to Simon,Joshua PENALTY CLE Roughing The Passer (Trotter Jr.,Jeremiah) 15 yards from USC20 to USC35, 1ST DOWN. NO PLAY.Similar
Q1 12:16
2ND & 5
OPP 44
+5
30.8%
Spencer Rattler pass complete to Xavier Legette for 5 yds to the CLEM 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 12:16
1ST & 10
OPP 39
0
30.8%
Spencer Rattler pass complete to Trey Knox for no gain to the CLEM 39Similar
Q1 12:16
2ND & 9
OPP 19
+10
30.9%
Spencer Rattler pass complete to Joshua Simon for 10 yds to the CLEM 9 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 12:16
2ND & GOAL
OPP 3
+2
30.9%
Spencer Rattler pass complete to Xavier Legette for 2 yds to the CLEM 1Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CLEMDrive 5FG12 plays · 42 yds · 5:5666% → 66%
Q1 6:39
1ST & 10
OWN 38
+3
33.6%
Cade Klubnik pass complete to Tyler Brown for 3 yds to the CLEM 41Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SCDrive 6PUNT11 plays · 15 yds · 2:1434% → 36%
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CLEMDrive 7PUNT10 plays · 31 yds · 4:1969% → 64%
SCDrive 8PUNT5 plays · -8 yds · 1:2636% → 34%
CLEMDrive 9FG10 plays · 13 yds · 2:3768% → 64%
SCDrive 10PUNT4 plays · 4 yds · 0:5635% → 35%
Q2 4:02
4TH & 6
OWN 34
0
34.9%
Kai Kroeger punt for 44 yds, fair catch by Hamp Greene at the CLEM 22Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CLEMDrive 11PUNT8 plays · 8 yds · 2:3663% → 57%
Q2 4:02
2ND & 7
OWN 25
+5
36.4%
Cade Klubnik pass complete to Adam Randall for 5 yds to the CLEM 30Similar
Q2 4:02
2ND & 10
OWN 33
+4
36.4%
Cade Klubnik pass complete to Tyler Brown for 4 yds to the CLEM 29Similar
Q2 1:26
4TH & 13
OWN 30
+9
43.2%
Aidan Swanson punt for 36 yds , Jalon Kilgore returns for 9 yds to the SC 43Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SCDrive 12PUNT5 plays · -8 yds · 0:3337% → 36%
Q2 1:26
1ST & 10
OWN 43
+5
36.7%
Spencer Rattler pass complete to Mario Anderson for 5 yds to the SC 48Similar
Q2 1:26
3RD & 5
OWN 48
-13
37.0%
Spencer Rattler sacked by Barrett Carter for a loss of 13 yards to the SC 35Similar
Q2 0:53
4TH & 18
OWN 35
0
35.6%
Kai Kroeger punt for 38 yds, fair catch by Hamp Greene at the CLEM 27Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CLEMDrive 13END OF HALF3 plays · 23 yds · 0:5362% → 62%
CLEMDrive 14FG9 plays · 50 yds · 1:4470% → 74%
Q3 15:00
2ND & 5
OWN 30
+39
29.8%
Cade Klubnik pass complete to Tyler Brown for 39 yds to the SC 31 for a 1ST down South Carolina Penalty, Defensive Pass Interference (Yards) declined for a 1ST downSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SCDrive 15PUNT6 plays · -17 yds · 2:0628% → 25%
Q3 13:16
3RD & 8
OWN 32
-5
26.7%
PENALTY USC False Start (Gargiulo,Nick) 5 yards from USC32 to USC27. NO PLAY.Similar
Q3 13:16
3RD & 13
OWN 27
-5
25.9%
PENALTY USC False Start (Babalade,Tree) 5 yards from USC27 to USC22. NO PLAY.Similar
Q3 13:16
3RD & 18
OWN 22
-9
25.9%
Spencer Rattler sacked by Ruke Orhorhoro for a loss of 9 yards to the SC 13Similar
Q3 11:10
4TH & 27
OWN 13
0
25.1%
Kai Kroeger punt for 44 yds, fair catch by Hamp Greene at the CLEM 43Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CLEMDrive 16INT7 plays · 29 yds · 2:5376% → 79%
Q3 11:10
1ST & 10
OWN 43
+3
23.9%
Cade Klubnik pass complete to Jake Briningstool for 3 yds to the CLEM 46Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SCDrive 17PUNT8 plays · 15 yds · 3:0521% → 19%
Q3 8:17
3RD & 9
OWN 21
+12
20.2%
Spencer Rattler pass complete to Joshua Simon for 12 yds to the SC 33 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 8:17
2ND & 12
OWN 31
+4
20.7%
Spencer Rattler pass complete to Tyshawn Russell for 4 yds to the SC 35Similar
Q3 5:12
4TH & 8
OWN 35
0
19.4%
Kai Kroeger punt for 50 yds, fair catch by Hamp Greene at the CLEM 15Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CLEMDrive 18PUNT12 plays · 38 yds · 5:1276% → 80%
Q3 5:12
2ND & 7
OWN 30
+6
22.8%
Cade Klubnik pass complete to Will Shipley for 6 yds to the CLEM 36Similar
Q3 5:12
2ND & 15
OWN 48
+5
22.9%
Cade Klubnik pass complete to Olsen Patt-Henry for 5 yds to the SC 47Similar
Q3 5:12
1ST & 10
OPP 47
-5
21.5%
PENALTY CLE Illegal Formation 5 yards from USC47 to CLE48. NO PLAY.Similar
Q3 0:00
4TH & 10
OPP 47
0
19.8%
Aidan Swanson punt for 32 yds, fair catch by Ahmarean Brown at the SC 15Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SCDrive 19PUNT4 plays · 0 yds · 0:2716% → 15%
Q4 14:33
4TH & 10
OWN 15
0
14.9%
Kai Kroeger punt for 43 yds , Hamp Greene returns for no gain to the CLEM 42Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CLEMDrive 20PUNT6 plays · 4 yds · 2:3982% → 80%
Q4 11:54
4TH & 6
OWN 46
0
20.1%
Aidan Swanson punt for 39 yds, fair catch by Ahmarean Brown at the SC 15Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SCDrive 21PUNT7 plays · 36 yds · 2:0516% → 14%
Q4 11:54
1ST & 10
OWN 15
+17
15.9%
Spencer Rattler pass complete to Xavier Legette for 17 yds to the SC 32 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 11:54
1ST & 10
OWN 32
+16
16.4%
Spencer Rattler pass complete to Xavier Legette for 16 yds to the SC 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 11:54
3RD & 10
OWN 48
+3
16.6%
Spencer Rattler pass complete to Mario Anderson for 3 yds to the CLEM 49Similar
Q4 9:49
4TH & 7
OPP 49
0
14.1%
Kai Kroeger punt for 39 yds, fair catch by Hamp Greene at the CLEM 10Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CLEMDrive 22PUNT9 plays · 32 yds · 3:5286% → 90%
SCDrive 23DOWNS9 plays · 29 yds · 2:388% → 6%
Q4 5:57
1ST & 10
OWN 22
+9
9.0%
Spencer Rattler pass complete to Ahmarean Brown for 9 yds to the SC 31Similar
Q4 5:57
2ND & 1
OWN 31
-10
8.6%
No Huddle-Shotgun Anderson,Mario rush middle for 10 yards gain to the USC41 (Trotter Jr.,Jeremiah) PENALTY USC Holding (Knox,Trey) 10 yards from USC31 to USC21. NO PLAY.Similar
Q4 5:57
2ND & 11
OWN 21
+10
8.7%
Spencer Rattler pass complete to Xavier Legette for 10 yds to the SC 31Similar
Q4 5:57
3RD & 10
OWN 34
+7
7.4%
Spencer Rattler pass complete to Djay Braswell for 7 yds to the SC 41Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CLEMDrive 24END OF GAME11 plays · 30 yds · 3:1993% → 98%
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
TD · Q1 6:39
Luke Doty run for 1 yd for a TD (Mitch Jeter KICK)
+3.2
FG · Q3 13:16
Robert Gunn III kickoff for 65 yds for a touchback Clemson Penalty, Defensive Offside (Wade Woodaz)
-2.4
FG · Q3 13:16
Jonathan Weitz 42 yd FG GOOD
-2.1