Try the model
MTSU

Middle Tennessee 20 at Sam Houston 23

SHSU
2023 · Week 13 · Nov 25, 2023 · Elliott T. Bowers Stadium
Speed4x
View as
Download image
Win probability · SHSU
modelSHSU aheadMTSU aheadconfidence bandkey playSHSU scoreMTSU score
0%25%50%75%100%Q1Q2Q3Q4TDFGFGFGFGFGTDTDTDTDEnd of GameFG+2.2SHSU 48.3%Colby Sessums 26 yd FG GOODAWAY 10 - HOME 9 · Q2 2:43
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q2 2:43 · Colby Sessums 26 yd FG GOOD
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Home team on offensePregame priorGarbage-time factorScore diff ÷ offense timeoutsScore differentialBlowout margin
+27.0+13.50−13.5−27.0Q1Q2Q3Q4Play 70Home team on offense+0.0Pregame prior−3.7Garbage-time factor−0.8Score diff ÷ offense timeouts+0.5Score differential−1.1Blowout margin−0.9
This game in five plays
  1. FG · Q1 1:29: Zeke Rankin 32 yd FG GOOD — MTSU win probability +2.7 pts (now 59%) (top driver: MTSU has the ball).
  2. TD · Q3 8:35: Nicholas Vattiato pass intercepted Trevor Williams return for 31 yds for a TD (Colby Sessums KICK) — SHSU win probability +17.2 pts (now 59%) (top driver: MTSU has the ball).
  3. TD · Q4 2:50: DJ Riles run for 5 yds for a TD (Zeke Rankin KICK) — MTSU win probability +43.6 pts (now 88%) (top driver: MTSU has the ball).
  4. TD · Q4 0:57: John Gentry run for 3 yds for a TD (Colby Sessums KICK) — SHSU win probability +58.8 pts (now 90%) (top driver: SHSU has the ball).
  5. TD · Q4 0:56: Timeout Middle Tennessee, clock 00:56 — SHSU win probability +2.5 pts (now 93%) (top driver: SHSU has the ball).
Was that the right call?

Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works

Fourth downs
SHSU made the numbers' call on 8 of 10MTSU made the numbers' call on 6 of 7
  1. Q1 5:42SHSU 4th & 9 at MTSU 9, down 7
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 41.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    41.0%−0.3
    25% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    41.3%
    89% to make
    Punt
    39.3%−2.0
    average punt
  2. Q1 1:29MTSU 4th & 15 at SHSU 15, up 4
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 56.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    54.8%−1.2
    15% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    56.0%
    83% to make
    Punt
    52.5%−3.5
    average punt
  3. Q2 12:28SHSU 4th & 8 at MTSU 34, down 7
    Close callKicked a field goal · 40.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    39.8%
    34% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    39.7%−0.1
    47% to make
    Punt
    39.1%−0.7
    average punt
  4. Q2 10:39MTSU 4th & 15 at MTSU 20, up 4
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 55.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    53.7%−1.4
    16% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    55.0%
    average punt
  5. Q2 9:05SHSU 4th & 12 at SHSU 38, down 4
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 42.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    41.2%−1.3
    23% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    42.6%
    average punt
  6. Q2 2:43SHSU 4th & 8 at MTSU 9, down 4
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 43.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    42.5%−0.6
    27% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    43.0%
    89% to make
    Punt
    37.1%−6.0
    average punt
  7. Q2 1:32MTSU 4th & 12 at MTSU 33, up 1
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 53.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    52.2%−2.2
    23% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    54.4%
    average punt
  8. Q2 0:34SHSU 4th & 11 at SHSU 38, down 1
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 44.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    43.1%−1.5
    26% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    44.6%
    average punt
  9. Q2 0:06MTSU 4th & 6 at MTSU 16, up 1
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 52.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    51.0%−1.7
    38% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    52.7%
    average punt
  10. Q3 10:28MTSU 4th & 6 at SHSU 13, up 1
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 55.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    53.8%−0.5
    37% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    54.3%
    85% to make
    Punt
    45.0%−9.3
    average punt
  11. Q3 9:11SHSU 4th & 1 at SHSU 34, down 4
    Numbers favored go for it by 1.5 ptsPunted · 41.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    42.7%
    71% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    41.2%−1.5
    average punt
  12. Q3 4:16MTSU 4th & 6 at MTSU 42, down 3
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 40.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    40.5%−1.0
    40% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    41.5%
    average punt
  13. Q3 2:45SHSU 4th & 10 at SHSU 13, up 3
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 57.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    55.2%−3.9
    28% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    59.1%
    average punt
  14. Q4 13:40SHSU 4th & 2 at MTSU 28, up 3
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 67.4% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    67.4%
    57% to convert
    Field goal
    65.0%−2.4
    60% to make
    Punt
    54.2%−13.1
    average punt
  15. Q4 11:57SHSU 4th & 26 at MTSU 41, up 3
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 64.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    59.9%−5.3
    7% to convert
    Field goal
    64.0%−1.2
    32% to make
    PuntTheir call
    65.2%
    average punt
  16. Q4 10:22MTSU 4th & 1 at MTSU 29, down 3
    Numbers favored go for it by 4.6 ptsPunted · 33.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    34.9%
    71% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    30.3%−4.6
    average punt
  17. Q4 5:46SHSU 4th & 10 at midfield, up 3
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 70.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    69.2%−1.8
    29% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    71.0%
    average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
SHSU made the numbers' call on 2 of 2MTSU made the numbers' call on 1 of 2
  1. Q1 10:41MTSU Touchdown, up 6 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    57.8%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    57.8%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  2. Q3 8:35SHSU Touchdown, up 2 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    57.4%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    57.2%−0.2
    45% to convert
  3. Q4 2:50MTSU Touchdown, up 3 before the try
    Close callKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    69.6%−0.5
    97% to make
    Go for two
    70.2%
    45% to convert
  4. Q4 0:57SHSU Touchdown, up 2 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    80.8%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    76.8%−4.0
    45% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chart
MTSUDrive 1TD
11 plays · 62 yds · 4:1357% → 58%
Q1 14:54
1ST & 10
OWN 38
+9
43.3%
Nicholas Vattiato pass complete to Javonte Sherman for 9 yds to the MTSU 47Similar
Q1 14:54
2ND & 1
OWN 47
+5
43.3%
Nicholas Vattiato run for 5 yds to the SHSU 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 14:54
1ST & 10
OPP 48
+8
43.3%
Nicholas Vattiato pass complete to Frank Peasant for 8 yds to the SHSU 40Similar
Q1 14:54
2ND & 2
OPP 40
0
43.3%
Nicholas Vattiato pass complete to Javonte Sherman for no gain to the SHSU 40Similar
Q1 14:54
3RD & 2
OPP 40
+10
43.3%
Nicholas Vattiato pass complete to Holden Willis for 10 yds to the SHSU 30 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 14:54
1ST & 10
OPP 30
+5
43.3%
VATTIATO, Nicholas pass incomplete intended for SHERMAN, Javonte thrown to the SAM23. PENALTY Before the snap, SAM Illegal Substitution enforced 5 yards from the SAM30 to the SAM25. NO PLAY (replay the down).Similar
Q1 14:54
1ST & 5
OPP 25
+2
43.3%
Nicholas Vattiato pass complete to Frank Peasant for 2 yds to the SHSU 23Similar
Q1 14:54
2ND & 3
OPP 23
0
43.3%
Nicholas Vattiato run for no gain to the SHSU 23Similar
Q1 14:54
3RD & 3
OPP 23
+13
43.3%
Nicholas Vattiato pass complete to DJ England-Chisolm for 13 yds to the SHSU 10 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 14:54
1ST & GOAL
OPP 10
+7
43.3%
Nicholas Vattiato pass complete to DJ England-Chisolm for 7 yds to the SHSU 3Similar
Q1 10:41
2ND & GOAL
OPP 3
+3
42.3%
Frank Peasant run for 3 yds for a TD (Zeke Rankin KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SHSUDrive 2FG
13 plays · 62 yds · 4:5343% → 45%
Q1 10:35
1ST & 10
OWN 29
+19
42.9%
John Gentry run for 19 yds to the SHSU 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 10:35
1ST & 10
OWN 48
+4
43.2%
Keegan Shoemaker run for 4 yds to the MTSU 48Similar
Q1 10:35
2ND & 6
OPP 48
+17
43.3%
Keegan Shoemaker pass complete to Malik Phillips for 17 yds to the MTSU 31 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 10:35
1ST & 10
OPP 31
0
43.5%
Keegan Shoemaker pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 10:35
2ND & 10
OPP 31
+2
43.5%
Keegan Shoemaker run for 2 yds to the MTSU 29Similar
Q1 10:35
3RD & 8
OPP 29
+10
43.3%
Keegan Shoemaker pass complete to Malik Phillips for 10 yds to the MTSU 19 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 10:35
1ST & 10
OPP 19
+5
43.5%
Keegan Shoemaker pass complete to Thomas Jewett for 5 yds to the MTSU 14Similar
Q1 10:35
2ND & 5
OPP 14
+3
43.6%
John Gentry run for 3 yds to the MTSU 11Similar
Q1 10:35
3RD & 2
OPP 11
+2
43.4%
Keegan Shoemaker run for 2 yds to the MTSU 9 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 10:35
1ST & GOAL
OPP 9
0
43.6%
Keegan Shoemaker pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 10:35
2ND & GOAL
OPP 9
0
43.6%
Keegan Shoemaker pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 10:35
3RD & GOAL
OPP 9
0
43.4%
Keegan Shoemaker pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 5:42
4TH & GOAL
OPP 9
+26
44.5%
Colby Sessums 26 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MTSUDrive 3FG
12 plays · 60 yds · 4:1356% → 59%
Q1 5:42
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+6
44.1%
Nicholas Vattiato pass complete to Javonte Sherman for 6 yds to the MTSU 31Similar
Q1 5:42
2ND & 4
OWN 31
+7
43.7%
Nicholas Vattiato pass complete to Javonte Sherman for 7 yds to the MTSU 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 5:42
1ST & 10
OWN 38
+7
43.6%
Nicholas Vattiato run for 7 yds to the MTSU 45Similar
Q1 5:42
2ND & 3
OWN 45
+6
43.5%
Nicholas Vattiato run for 6 yds to the SHSU 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 5:42
1ST & 10
OPP 49
+3
43.3%
Nicholas Vattiato pass complete to Javonte Sherman for 3 yds to the SHSU 46Similar
Q1 5:42
2ND & 7
OPP 46
0
43.3%
QB Keeper RILES, DJ rush to the right for a gain of 1 yard to the SAM46 (FISHER, David). PENALTY MTS Holding on GRAHAM, Jacqui Before the snap, SAM Illegal Substitution , Offsetting penalties [NHSG]. NO PLAY (replay the down).Similar
Q1 5:42
2ND & 7
OPP 46
+43
43.3%
Nicholas Vattiato pass complete to Zack Dobson for 43 yds to the SHSU 3 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 5:42
1ST & GOAL
OPP 3
+1
43.0%
Frank Peasant run for 1 yd to the SHSU 2Similar
Q1 5:42
2ND & GOAL
OPP 2
-10
43.0%
PEASANT, Frank rush to the left for no gain to the SAM2 (MURRAY, Chris). PENALTY MTS Holding on PORCHER, Sterling enforced 10 yards from the SAM2 to the SAM12 [NHSG]. NO PLAY (replay the down).Similar
Q1 5:42
2ND & GOAL
OPP 12
-3
43.1%
Nicholas Vattiato sacked by Issiah Nixon for a loss of 3 yards to the SHSU 15Similar
Q1 5:42
3RD & GOAL
OPP 15
0
43.7%
Nicholas Vattiato pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 1:29
4TH & GOAL
OPP 15
+32
41.0%
Zeke Rankin 32 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SHSUDrive 4FG
11 plays · 44 yds · 3:5441% → 45%
Q1 1:22
1ST & 10
OWN 22
+10
41.2%
SHOEMAKER, Keegan pass up the middle incomplete intended for SMITH, Noah thrown to the SAM35. PENALTY MTS Holding on MYERS, Marvae enforced 10 yards from the SAM22 to the SAM32 and results in automatic 1ST DOWN [NHSG]. NO PLAY (replay the down).Similar
Q1 1:22
1ST & 10
OWN 32
+3
41.5%
Keegan Shoemaker pass complete to Thomas Jewett for 3 yds to the SHSU 35Similar
Q1 1:22
2ND & 7
OWN 35
+4
41.5%
John Gentry run for 4 yds to the SHSU 39Similar
Q1 0:00
3RD & 3
OWN 39
+4
41.8%
Keegan Shoemaker pass complete to Noah Smith for 4 yds to the SHSU 43 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 43
0
42.1%
Keegan Shoemaker pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 15:00
2ND & 10
OWN 43
+6
41.7%
Keegan Shoemaker pass complete to Simeon Evans for 6 yds to the SHSU 49Similar
Q2 15:00
3RD & 4
OWN 49
0
42.2%
SHOEMAKER, Keegan pass deep to the left incomplete intended for PHILLIPS, Malik thrown to the MTS30. PENALTY MTS Offsides declined MTS Pass Interference on RABY, Tyrell enforced 15 yards to the MTS36 and results in automatic 1ST DOWN [NHSG]. NO PLAY (replay the down).Similar
Q2 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 36
-6
42.8%
Zack Dobson run for a loss of 6 yards to the MTSU 42Similar
Q2 15:00
2ND & 16
OPP 42
+9
41.9%
Simeon Evans run for 9 yds to the MTSU 33Similar
Q2 15:00
3RD & 7
OPP 33
-1
42.6%
Keegan Shoemaker pass complete to John Gentry for a loss of 1 yard to the MTSU 34Similar
Q2 12:28
4TH & 8
OPP 34
+51
45.0%
Colby Sessums 51 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MTSUDrive 5PUNT
4 plays · -5 yds · 1:4956% → 54%
Q2 12:28
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+6
44.2%
Frank Peasant run for 6 yds to the MTSU 31Similar
Q2 12:28
2ND & 4
OWN 31
0
43.5%
Nicholas Vattiato run for no gain to the MTSU 31Similar
Q2 12:28
3RD & 4
OWN 31
-11
44.3%
Nicholas Vattiato sacked by Sincere Jackson and Seth Mason for a loss of 11 yards to the MTSU 20Similar
Q2 10:39
4TH & 15
OWN 20
0
45.9%
Trey Turk punt for 40 ydsSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SHSUDrive 6PUNT
4 plays · -2 yds · 1:3446% → 43%
Q2 10:39
1ST & 10
OWN 40
-5
46.4%
Adrian Murdaugh run for a loss of 5 yards to the SHSU 35Similar
Q2 10:39
2ND & 15
OWN 35
+3
44.5%
Keegan Shoemaker run for 3 yds to the SHSU 38Similar
Q2 10:39
3RD & 12
OWN 38
0
44.2%
Keegan Shoemaker pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 9:05
4TH & 12
OWN 38
0
43.3%
Jadon Cardell punt for 42 ydsSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MTSUDrive 7INT
6 plays · 17 yds · 2:4456% → 58%
Q2 9:05
1ST & 10
OWN 26
+3
44.1%
Jaiden Credle run for 3 yds to the MTSU 29Similar
Q2 9:05
2ND & 7
OWN 29
+10
43.7%
Jaiden Credle run for 10 yds to the MTSU 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 9:05
1ST & 10
OWN 39
-10
42.9%
Middle Tennessee Penalty, Offensive Holding (-10 Yards) to the MTSU 31Similar
Q2 9:05
1ST & 18
OWN 31
+4
44.1%
Nicholas Vattiato pass complete to Holden Willis for 4 yds to the MTSU 35Similar
Q2 9:05
2ND & 14
OWN 35
+8
44.3%
Nicholas Vattiato pass complete to Jaiden Credle for 8 yds to the MTSU 43Similar
Q2 6:21
3RD & 6
OWN 43
0
42.0%
Nicholas Vattiato pass intercepted Akeem Smith return for no gain to the MTSU 43Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SHSUDrive 8FG
9 plays · 34 yds · 3:3846% → 48%
Q2 6:21
1ST & 10
OPP 43
+3
46.4%
John Gentry run for 3 yds to the MTSU 40Similar
Q2 6:21
2ND & 7
OPP 40
+13
46.4%
Keegan Shoemaker pass complete to Simeon Evans for 13 yds to the MTSU 27 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 6:21
1ST & 10
OPP 27
+1
47.4%
John Gentry run for 1 yd to the MTSU 26Similar
Q2 6:21
2ND & 9
OPP 26
+8
47.4%
Keegan Shoemaker pass complete to Simeon Evans for 8 yds to the MTSU 18Similar
Q2 6:21
3RD & 1
OPP 18
+7
46.1%
John Gentry run for 7 yds to the MTSU 11 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 6:21
1ST & 10
OPP 11
+1
47.3%
Noah Smith pass complete to Keegan Shoemaker for 1 yd to the MTSU 10Similar
Q2 6:21
2ND & 9
OPP 10
+1
47.3%
John Gentry run for 1 yd to the MTSU 9Similar
Q2 6:21
3RD & 8
OPP 9
0
46.1%
Keegan Shoemaker pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 2:43
4TH & 8
OPP 9
+26
48.3%
Colby Sessums 26 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MTSUDrive 9PUNT
8 plays · 8 yds · 1:1155% → 53%
Q2 2:43
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+5
45.0%
Frank Peasant run for 5 yds to the MTSU 30Similar
Q2 2:43
2ND & 5
OWN 30
+5
44.3%
Nicholas Vattiato pass complete to Elijah Metcalf for 5 yds to the MTSU 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 1:53
1ST & 10
OWN 35
-3
45.3%
Nicholas Vattiato sacked by Markel Perry for a loss of 3 yards to the MTSU 32Similar
Q2 1:47
2ND & 13
OWN 32
+1
45.2%
Nicholas Vattiato pass complete to Javonte Sherman for 1 yd to the MTSU 33Similar
Q2 1:47
3RD & 12
OWN 33
0
46.2%
Nicholas Vattiato pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 1:32
4TH & 12
OWN 33
0
47.0%
Miles Tillman punt for 47 ydsSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SHSUDrive 10PUNT
8 plays · 15 yds · 0:5347% → 45%
Q2 1:27
1ST & 10
OWN 23
+5
46.6%
Keegan Shoemaker pass complete to Simeon Evans for 5 yds to the SHSU 28Similar
Q2 1:27
2ND & 5
OWN 28
0
46.9%
Keegan Shoemaker pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 1:27
3RD & 5
OWN 28
+11
45.8%
Keegan Shoemaker pass complete to Al'vonte Woodard for 11 yds to the SHSU 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 1:27
1ST & 10
OWN 39
0
48.1%
Keegan Shoemaker pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 1:27
2ND & 10
OWN 39
0
47.7%
Keegan Shoemaker pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 1:27
3RD & 10
OWN 39
-1
46.4%
Keegan Shoemaker sacked by Marvae Myers for a loss of 1 yard to the SHSU 38Similar
Q2 0:34
4TH & 11
OWN 38
0
45.2%
Jadon Cardell punt for 50 yds, downed at the MTSU 12Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MTSUDrive 11PUNT
5 plays · 4 yds · 0:2855% → 53%
Q2 0:34
1ST & 10
OWN 12
+2
45.1%
Nicholas Vattiato run for 2 yds to the MTSU 14Similar
Q2 0:34
2ND & 8
OWN 14
0
45.4%
Nicholas Vattiato pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 0:14
3RD & 8
OWN 14
+2
46.4%
Jaiden Credle run for 2 yds to the MTSU 16Similar
Q2 0:06
4TH & 6
OWN 16
0
47.4%
Trey Turk punt for 38 ydsSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SHSUDrive 12END OF HALF
1 play · 19 yds · 0:0047% → 47%
Q2 0:00
1ST & 10
OWN 46
+19
47.0%
Keegan Shoemaker pass complete to Simeon Evans for 19 yds to the MTSU 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SHSUDrive 13INT
7 plays · 25 yds · 2:2447% → 50%
Q3 14:54
1ST & 10
OWN 15
+3
47.3%
John Gentry run for 3 yds to the SHSU 18Similar
Q3 14:54
2ND & 7
OWN 18
+5
47.4%
Middle Tennessee Penalty, Offsides (Richard Kinley) to the SHSU 23Similar
Q3 14:54
2ND & 2
OWN 23
+3
48.0%
John Gentry run for 3 yds to the SHSU 26 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 14:54
1ST & 10
OWN 26
+3
47.8%
John Gentry run for 3 yds to the SHSU 29Similar
Q3 14:54
2ND & 7
OWN 29
0
48.0%
Keegan Shoemaker pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 14:54
3RD & 7
OWN 29
+11
46.6%
Keegan Shoemaker pass complete to Simeon Evans for 11 yds to the SHSU 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 12:30
1ST & 10
OWN 40
-31
50.3%
Keegan Shoemaker pass intercepted Marvae Myers return for 31 yds to the SHSU 17Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MTSUDrive 14FG
4 plays · 4 yds · 2:0259% → 59%
Q3 12:30
1ST & 10
OPP 17
0
41.4%
Frank Peasant run for no gain to the SHSU 17Similar
Q3 12:30
2ND & 10
OPP 17
0
41.5%
Frank Peasant run for no gain to the SHSU 17Similar
Q3 12:30
3RD & 10
OPP 17
+4
43.2%
DJ Riles run for 4 yds to the SHSU 13Similar
Q3 10:28
4TH & 6
OPP 13
+31
41.2%
Zeke Rankin 31 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SHSUDrive 15PUNT
5 plays · 9 yds · 1:1743% → 42%
Q3 10:28
1ST & 10
OWN 25
-5
42.8%
Sam Houston Penalty, False Start (-5 Yards) to the SHSU 20Similar
Q3 10:28
1ST & 15
OWN 20
0
42.5%
Keegan Shoemaker pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 10:28
2ND & 15
OWN 20
+5
42.3%
Keegan Shoemaker pass complete to John Gentry for 5 yds to the SHSU 25Similar
Q3 10:28
3RD & 10
OWN 25
+9
41.3%
Keegan Shoemaker pass complete to Al'vonte Woodard for 9 yds to the SHSU 34Similar
Q3 9:11
4TH & 1
OWN 34
0
41.8%
Jadon Cardell punt for 44 yds, fair catch by Zack Dobson at the MTSU 22Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MTSUDrive 16INT TD
3 plays · 4 yds · 0:3658% → 42%
Q3 9:11
1ST & 10
OWN 22
+4
41.7%
Nicholas Vattiato pass complete to Holden Willis for 4 yds to the MTSU 26Similar
Q3 9:11
2ND & 6
OWN 26
0
41.3%
Nicholas Vattiato pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 8:35
3RD & 6
OWN 26
-31
58.5%
Nicholas Vattiato pass intercepted Trevor Williams return for 31 yds for a TD (Colby Sessums KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MTSUDrive 17PUNT
7 plays · 16 yds · 4:0643% → 40%
Q3 8:22
1ST & 10
OWN 26
+4
57.1%
Nicholas Vattiato pass complete to Jaiden Credle for 4 yds to the MTSU 30Similar
Q3 8:22
2ND & 6
OWN 30
+5
56.4%
Nicholas Vattiato pass complete to Jaylen Ward for 5 yds to the MTSU 35Similar
Q3 8:22
3RD & 1
OWN 35
+3
55.7%
Jaiden Credle run for 3 yds to the MTSU 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 8:22
1ST & 10
OWN 38
+6
55.3%
Nicholas Vattiato pass complete to Zack Dobson for 6 yds to the MTSU 44Similar
Q3 8:22
2ND & 4
OWN 44
+2
53.9%
Nicholas Vattiato run for 2 yds to the MTSU 46Similar
Q3 8:22
3RD & 2
OWN 46
-4
54.3%
Nicholas Vattiato sacked by Trevor Williams and Markel Perry for a loss of 4 yards to the MTSU 42Similar
Q3 4:16
4TH & 6
OWN 42
0
60.0%
Miles Tillman punt for 45 yds, downed at the SHSU 13Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SHSUDrive 18PUNT
4 plays · 0 yds · 1:3160% → 58%
Q3 4:16
1ST & 10
OWN 13
+4
60.0%
Keegan Shoemaker pass complete to Noah Smith for 4 yds to the SHSU 17Similar
Q3 4:16
2ND & 6
OWN 17
-4
59.9%
John Gentry run for a loss of 4 yards to the SHSU 13Similar
Q3 4:16
3RD & 10
OWN 13
0
58.2%
Keegan Shoemaker pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 2:45
4TH & 10
OWN 13
0
57.8%
Jadon Cardell punt for 56 yds, downed at the MTSU 31Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MTSUDrive 19INT
4 plays · 15 yds · 1:5340% → 43%
Q3 2:45
1ST & 10
OWN 31
+6
60.5%
Nicholas Vattiato pass complete to Javonte Sherman for 6 yds to the MTSU 37Similar
Q3 2:45
2ND & 4
OWN 37
+6
58.0%
Nicholas Vattiato pass complete to Frank Peasant for 6 yds to the MTSU 43 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 2:45
1ST & 10
OWN 43
+3
58.3%
Frank Peasant run for 3 yds to the MTSU 46Similar
Q3 0:52
2ND & 7
OWN 46
-40
57.5%
Nicholas Vattiato pass intercepted Isaiah Downes return for 40 yds to the MTSU 36Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SHSUDrive 20PUNT
10 plays · -5 yds · 3:5566% → 65%
Q3 0:52
1ST & 10
OPP 36
+3
66.0%
John Gentry run for 3 yds to the MTSU 33Similar
Q3 0:00
2ND & 7
OPP 33
+4
67.4%
Keegan Shoemaker pass complete to Thomas Jewett for 4 yds to the MTSU 29Similar
Q4 15:00
3RD & 3
OPP 29
+1
65.7%
John Gentry run for 1 yd to the MTSU 28Similar
Q4 13:40
4TH & 2
OPP 28
+3
67.4%
Keegan Shoemaker pass complete to Thomas Jewett for 3 yds to the MTSU 25 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 13:40
1ST & 10
OPP 25
-15
71.3%
SHOEMAKER, Keegan pass short to the left complete for 4 yards to PHILLIPS, Malik caught at the MTS22 and advanced to the MTS21 (HUGHES, Parker). PENALTY SAM Pass Interference on WOODARD, Al'Vonte enforced 15 yards to the MTS40 [NHSG]. NO PLAY (replay the down).Similar
Q4 13:40
1ST & 25
OPP 40
+1
69.0%
John Gentry run for 1 yd to the MTSU 39Similar
Q4 13:40
2ND & 24
OPP 39
-2
68.4%
Keegan Shoemaker pass complete to John Gentry for a loss of 2 yards to the MTSU 41Similar
Q4 13:40
3RD & 26
OPP 41
0
66.4%
Keegan Shoemaker pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 11:57
4TH & 26
OPP 41
0
64.5%
Jadon Cardell punt for 41 yds for a touchbackSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MTSUDrive 21PUNT
4 plays · 9 yds · 1:3536% → 34%
Q4 11:57
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+7
63.9%
Frank Peasant run for 7 yds to the MTSU 27Similar
Q4 11:57
2ND & 3
OWN 27
0
61.8%
Nicholas Vattiato pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 11:57
3RD & 3
OWN 27
+2
63.5%
Nicholas Vattiato run for 2 yds to the MTSU 29Similar
Q4 10:22
4TH & 1
OWN 29
0
65.6%
Trey Turk punt for 42 yds, downed at the SHSU 29Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SHSUDrive 22PUNT
10 plays · 21 yds · 4:3669% → 72%
Q4 10:22
1ST & 10
OWN 29
+7
68.9%
Adrian Murdaugh run for 7 yds to the SHSU 36Similar
Q4 10:22
2ND & 3
OWN 36
+2
71.1%
Keegan Shoemaker pass complete to Adrian Murdaugh for 2 yds to the SHSU 38Similar
Q4 8:47
3RD & 1
OWN 38
+2
72.4%
Keegan Shoemaker run for 2 yds to the SHSU 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 8:47
1ST & 10
OWN 40
+1
73.8%
Adrian Murdaugh run for 1 yd to the SHSU 41Similar
Q4 8:47
2ND & 9
OWN 41
+9
72.9%
Keegan Shoemaker pass complete to Simeon Evans for 9 yds to the 50 yard line for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 8:47
1ST & 10
50
-2
74.8%
Keegan Shoemaker pass complete to Thomas Jewett for a loss of 2 yards to the SHSU 48Similar
Q4 8:47
2ND & 12
OWN 48
+2
72.7%
Keegan Shoemaker pass complete to Simeon Evans for 2 yds to the 50 yard lineSimilar
Q4 8:47
3RD & 10
50
0
71.5%
Keegan Shoemaker pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 5:46
4TH & 10
50
0
71.8%
Jadon Cardell punt for 44 ydsSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MTSUDrive 23TD
7 plays · 97 yds · 2:5633% → 88%
Q4 5:46
1ST & 10
OWN 3
+35
67.2%
Nicholas Vattiato pass complete to Zack Dobson for 35 yds to the MTSU 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 5:46
1ST & 10
OWN 38
+12
63.2%
DJ Riles pass complete to Zack Dobson for 12 yds to the 50 yard line for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 5:46
1ST & 10
50
+7
58.8%
DJ Riles run for 7 yds to the SHSU 43Similar
Q4 5:46
2ND & 3
OPP 43
+23
57.5%
Holden Willis pass complete to Elijah Metcalf for 23 yds to the SHSU 20 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 5:46
1ST & 10
OPP 20
+4
55.4%
Frank Peasant run for 4 yds to the SHSU 16Similar
Q4 5:46
2ND & 6
OPP 16
+11
55.4%
RILES, DJ pass deep to the right incomplete intended for NORRIS, Kalani thrown to the SAM0. PENALTY SAM Pass Interference on FISHER, David enforced at the spot of the foul for 11 yards to the SAM5 and results in automatic 1ST DOWN [NHSG]. NO PLAY (replay the down).Similar
Q4 2:50
1ST & GOAL
OPP 5
+5
11.8%
DJ Riles run for 5 yds for a TD (Zeke Rankin KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SHSUDrive 24TD
14 plays · 72 yds · 1:4928% → 90%
Q4 2:45
1ST & 10
OWN 28
+5
27.8%
Keegan Shoemaker pass complete to Simeon Evans for 5 yds to the SHSU 33Similar
Q4 2:45
2ND & 5
OWN 33
0
29.3%
Keegan Shoemaker pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 2:45
3RD & 5
OWN 33
+7
26.8%
Keegan Shoemaker pass complete to Al'vonte Woodard for 7 yds to the SHSU 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 2:45
1ST & 10
OWN 40
+1
30.8%
Keegan Shoemaker pass complete to John Gentry for 1 yd to the SHSU 41Similar
Q4 2:45
2ND & 9
OWN 41
+1
29.4%
Keegan Shoemaker pass complete to Malik Phillips for 1 yd to the SHSU 42Similar
Q4 2:45
3RD & 8
OWN 42
+16
27.8%
Keegan Shoemaker pass complete to Simeon Evans for 16 yds to the MTSU 42 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 1:30
1ST & 10
OPP 42
+5
27.5%
Keegan Shoemaker pass complete to Thomas Jewett for 5 yds to the MTSU 37Similar
Q4 1:30
2ND & 5
OPP 37
+13
28.7%
John Gentry run for 13 yds to the MTSU 24 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 1:30
1ST & 10
OPP 24
+3
31.5%
John Gentry run for 3 yds to the MTSU 21Similar
Q4 1:30
2ND & 7
OPP 21
+2
31.5%
Keegan Shoemaker pass complete to John Gentry for 2 yds to the MTSU 19Similar
Q4 0:57
1ST & GOAL
OPP 3
+3
90.3%
John Gentry run for 3 yds for a TD (Colby Sessums KICK)Similar
Q4 0:56
3RD & 5
OPP 19
+16
90.1%
Keegan Shoemaker pass complete to Simeon Evans for 16 yds to the MTSU 3 for a 1ST downSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MTSUDrive 25MISSED FG
9 plays · 47 yds · 0:5222% → 19%
Q4 0:52
1ST & 10
OWN 24
+12
77.9%
Nicholas Vattiato pass complete to Holden Willis for 12 yds to the MTSU 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 0:52
1ST & 10
OWN 36
+8
75.4%
Nicholas Vattiato pass complete to DJ England-Chisolm for 8 yds to the MTSU 44Similar
Q4 0:52
2ND & 2
OWN 44
+8
71.5%
Nicholas Vattiato pass complete to DJ England-Chisolm for 8 yds to the SHSU 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 0:13
1ST & 10
OPP 48
+10
75.2%
Nicholas Vattiato pass complete to Holden Willis for 10 yds to the SHSU 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 0:06
1ST & 10
OPP 38
-3
82.4%
Nicholas Vattiato pass complete to Frank Peasant for a loss of 3 yards to the SHSU 41Similar
Q4 0:06
2ND & 13
OPP 41
+12
85.6%
Nicholas Vattiato pass complete to DJ England-Chisolm for 12 yds to the SHSU 29Similar
Q4 0:00
3RD & 1
OPP 29
+47
81.0%
Zeke Rankin 47 yd FG MISSEDSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
TD · Q4 0:57
John Gentry run for 3 yds for a TD (Colby Sessums KICK)
+58.8
TD · Q4 2:50
DJ Riles run for 5 yds for a TD (Zeke Rankin KICK)
-43.6
End of Game · Final
Game over.
+19
YardLine · model v10Model estimate - not betting advice · Data provided by CollegeFootballData.com