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JXST

Jacksonville State 17 at New Mexico State 20

NMSU
2023 · Week 13 · Nov 25, 2023 · Aggie Memorial Stadium
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Win probability · NMSU
modelNMSU aheadJXST aheadconfidence bandkey playNMSU scoreJXST score
0%25%50%75%100%Q1Q2Q3Q4TDTDFGFGFGTDFGFGEnd of Game
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q4 3:40 · Zion Webb run for 6 yds to the NMSU 34 for a 1ST down
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Home team on offensePregame priorGarbage-time factorScore differentialScore diff ÷ offense timeoutsBlowout margin
+25.0+12.50−12.5−25.0Q1Q2Q3Q4Play 157Home team on offense+5.3Pregame prior+0.4Garbage-time factor+0.0Score differential+0.7Score diff ÷ offense timeouts+0.0Blowout margin+1.1
This game in five plays
  1. TD · Q1 2:28: Diego Pavia pass complete to Trent Hudson for 11 yds for a TD (Ethan Albertson KICK) — NMSU win probability +7.1 pts (now 68%) (top driver: NMSU has the ball).
  2. FG · Q4 14:52: Alen Karajic 27 yd FG GOOD — JXST win probability +4.4 pts (now 18%) (top driver: JXST has the ball).
  3. TD · Q4 6:23: Malik Jackson run for 11 yds for a TD (Z. Webb Run For Two-point Conversion) — JXST win probability +30.7 pts (now 43%) (top driver: Deficit strained by the offense's own timeouts).
  4. FG · Q4 0:43: Alen Karajic 27 yd FG GOOD — JXST win probability +28.1 pts (now 54%) (top driver: JXST has the ball).
  5. FG · Q4 0:00: Ethan Albertson 52 yd FG GOOD — NMSU win probability +26.0 pts (now 96%) (top driver: NMSU has the ball).
Was that the right call?

Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works

Fourth downs
NMSU made the numbers' call on 5 of 5JXST made the numbers' call on 9 of 9
  1. Q1 15:00NMSU 4th & 1 at JXST 3, tied
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 50.9% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    51.0%
    63% to convert
    Field goal
    50.8%−0.2
    93% to make
    Punt
    50.3%−0.7
    average punt
  2. Q1 6:43JXST 4th & 8 at JXST 41, down 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 44.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    44.3%−0.2
    34% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    44.6%
    average punt
  3. Q2 14:53JXST 4th & 21 at NMSU 48, down 14
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 35.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    34.5%−2.2
    9% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    36.6%
    average punt
  4. Q2 8:30NMSU 4th & 1 at JXST 43, up 14
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 70.9% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    70.8%
    70% to convert
    Field goal
    66.9%−3.9
    28% to make
    Punt
    67.9%−2.9
    average punt
  5. Q2 7:09JXST 4th & 6 at NMSU 16, down 14
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 30.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    29.3%−0.3
    38% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    29.6%
    81% to make
    Punt
    24.3%−5.3
    average punt
  6. Q2 3:31JXST 4th & 7 at NMSU 18, down 11
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 30.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    29.6%−0.4
    35% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    30.0%
    79% to make
    Punt
    26.2%−3.8
    average punt
  7. Q3 13:23JXST 4th & 30 at JXST 5, down 14
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 19.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    17.5%−3.2
    6% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    20.8%
    average punt
  8. Q3 9:28NMSU 4th & 8 at JXST 47, up 14
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 82.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    82.9%−0.6
    34% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    83.4%
    average punt
  9. Q3 8:02JXST 4th & 8 at JXST 3, down 14
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 16.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    14.6%−2.1
    29% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    16.7%
    average punt
  10. Q4 14:52JXST 4th & 9 at NMSU 9, down 14
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 11.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    9.9%−1.3
    25% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    11.1%
    89% to make
    Punt
    3.3%−7.8
    average punt
  11. Q4 11:55NMSU 4th & 9 at NMSU 39, up 11
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 86.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    86.0%−0.8
    32% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    86.8%
    average punt
  12. Q4 3:40NMSU 4th & 11 at NMSU 34, up 3
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 75.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    71.2%−6.8
    26% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    78.0%
    average punt
  13. Q4 3:40JXST 4th & 5 at NMSU 40, down 3
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 34.8% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    29.2%
    42% to convert
    Field goal
    27.9%−1.3
    34% to make
    Punt
    24.0%−5.2
    average punt
  14. Q4 0:43JXST 4th & 7 at NMSU 9, down 3
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 24.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    15.7%−21.9
    30% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    37.7%
    89% to make
    Punt
    6.2%−31.5
    average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
NMSU made the numbers' call on 2 of 2JXST made the numbers' call on 0 of 1
  1. Q1 8:12NMSU Touchdown, up 6 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    54.2%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    54.2%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  2. Q1 2:28NMSU Touchdown, up 13 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    62.2%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    62.1%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  3. Q4 6:23JXST Touchdown, down 5 before the try
    Close callWent for two · converted
    Kick
    21.2%
    97% to make
    Go for twoTheir call
    20.6%−0.5
    45% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chart
NMSUDrive 1TD
13 plays · 65 yds · 6:4857% → 61%
Q1 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 35
+8
56.8%
Diego Pavia pass complete to Kordell David for 8 yds to the NMSU 43Similar
Q1 15:00
2ND & 2
OWN 43
+1
56.8%
Eli Stowers run for 1 yd to the NMSU 44Similar
Q1 15:00
3RD & 1
OWN 44
+2
56.8%
Diego Pavia run for 2 yds to the NMSU 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 46
-6
56.8%
Diego Pavia sacked by Curley Young Jr. for a loss of 6 yards to the NMSU 40Similar
Q1 15:00
2ND & 16
OWN 40
+15
56.8%
Jacksonville State Penalty, Face mask (15 yards) (Jeremiah Harris) to the JVST 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 39
0
56.8%
Diego Pavia pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 15:00
2ND & 10
OPP 39
-2
56.8%
Jamoni Jones run for a loss of 2 yards to the JVST 41Similar
Q1 15:00
3RD & 12
OPP 41
+29
56.8%
Diego Pavia pass complete to Bryce Childress for 29 yds to the JVST 12 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 12
+3
56.8%
Jamoni Jones run for 3 yds to the JVST 9Similar
Q1 15:00
2ND & 7
OPP 9
+3
56.8%
Diego Pavia run for 3 yds to the JVST 6Similar
Q1 15:00
3RD & 4
OPP 6
+3
56.8%
Jamoni Jones run for 3 yds to the JVST 3Similar
Q1 15:00
4TH & 1
OPP 3
+2
56.8%
Jamoni Jones run for 2 yds to the JVST 1 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 8:12
1ST & GOAL
OPP 1
+1
60.6%
Jamoni Jones run for 1 yd for a TD (Ethan Albertson KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
JXSTDrive 2PUNT
7 plays · 16 yds · 1:2940% → 40%
Q1 8:12
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+9
59.7%
Malik Jackson run for 9 yds to the JVST 34Similar
Q1 8:12
2ND & 1
OWN 34
0
59.2%
Malik Jackson run for no gain to the JVST 34Similar
Q1 8:12
3RD & 1
OWN 34
+5
59.5%
QB Keeper WEBB, Zion rush up the middle for a gain of 1 yard to the JSU35, End of Play. PENALTY NMS Offsides on PELETI, Buddha enforced 5 yards from the JSU34 to the JSU39 and results in a 1ST DOWN [NH]. NO PLAY (replay the down).Similar
Q1 8:12
1ST & 10
OWN 39
+6
59.3%
Zion Webb pass complete to Quinton Lane for 6 yds to the JVST 45Similar
Q1 8:12
2ND & 4
OWN 45
-4
59.1%
Zion Webb run for a loss of 4 yards to the JVST 41Similar
Q1 8:12
3RD & 8
OWN 41
0
59.5%
Zion Webb pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 6:43
4TH & 8
OWN 41
0
60.5%
Jack Dawson punt for 47 ydsSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NMSUDrive 3TD
8 plays · 83 yds · 4:1560% → 68%
Q1 6:43
1ST & 10
OWN 17
+44
60.4%
Diego Pavia pass complete to Chris Bellamy for 44 yds to the JVST 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 6:43
1ST & 10
OPP 39
+1
61.2%
Star Thomas run for 1 yd to the JVST 38Similar
Q1 6:43
2ND & 9
OPP 38
+5
61.2%
Diego Pavia run for 5 yds to the JVST 33Similar
Q1 6:43
3RD & 4
OPP 33
+6
61.0%
Diego Pavia pass complete to Jonathan Brady for 6 yds to the JVST 27 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 6:43
1ST & 10
OPP 27
0
61.3%
Diego Pavia pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 6:43
2ND & 10
OPP 27
+15
61.2%
Diego Pavia pass complete to Donovan Faupel for 15 yds to the JVST 12 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 6:43
1ST & 10
OPP 12
+1
61.2%
Star Thomas run for 1 yd to the JVST 11Similar
Q1 2:28
2ND & 9
OPP 11
+11
68.4%
Diego Pavia pass complete to Trent Hudson for 11 yds for a TD (Ethan Albertson KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
JXSTDrive 4PUNT
8 plays · 27 yds · 2:3534% → 32%
Q1 2:28
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+1
66.0%
Zion Webb run for 1 yd to the JVST 26Similar
Q1 2:28
2ND & 9
OWN 26
+26
66.1%
Zion Webb pass complete to Sean Brown for 26 yds to the NMSU 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 2:28
1ST & 10
OPP 48
+11
65.3%
Zion Webb pass complete to Perry Carter for 11 yds to the NMSU 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 2:28
1ST & 10
OPP 37
+6
65.3%
Perry Carter run for 6 yds to the NMSU 31Similar
Q1 2:28
2ND & 4
OPP 31
-2
64.6%
Malik Jackson run for a loss of 2 yards to the NMSU 33Similar
Q1 2:28
3RD & 6
OPP 33
-10
65.3%
WEBB, Zion pass short to the right complete for 5 yards to BROWN, Sean caught at the NMS28 and advanced to the NMS28 (MILLER, Mehki). PENALTY JSU Holding on WEBB, Clay enforced 10 yards from the NMS33 to the NMS43 [NHSG]. NO PLAY (replay the down).Similar
Q1 0:00
3RD & 16
OPP 43
-5
67.8%
Zion Webb sacked by Gabe Peterson for a loss of 5 yards to the NMSU 48Similar
Q2 14:53
4TH & 21
OPP 48
0
68.0%
Jack Dawson punt for 47 ydsSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NMSUDrive 5DOWNS
12 plays · 56 yds · 6:2369% → 74%
Q2 14:53
1ST & 10
OWN 1
+4
69.3%
Jamoni Jones run for 4 yds to the NMSU 5Similar
Q2 14:53
2ND & 6
OWN 5
+2
69.3%
Jamoni Jones run for 2 yds to the NMSU 7Similar
Q2 14:53
3RD & 4
OWN 7
0
68.8%
New Mexico State Penalty, Delay Of Game (Diego Pavia) to the NMSU 4Similar
Q2 14:53
3RD & 7
OWN 4
+12
68.8%
Diego Pavia pass complete to Trent Hudson for 12 yds to the NMSU 16 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 14:53
1ST & 10
OWN 16
+15
69.6%
Diego Pavia pass complete to Jonathan Brady for 15 yds to the NMSU 31 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 14:53
1ST & 10
OWN 31
+7
69.6%
Diego Pavia run for 7 yds to the NMSU 38Similar
Q2 14:53
2ND & 3
OWN 38
+10
70.3%
WATKINS, Monte rush to the left for a gain of 4 yards to the NMS42 (HARRIS, Jeremiah). PENALTY JSU Holding on MARKS, Jeff enforced 10 yards from the NMS38 to the NMS48 and results in automatic 1ST DOWN [SG]. NO PLAY (replay the down).Similar
Q2 14:53
1ST & 21
OWN 37
+3
69.7%
Monte Watkins run for 3 yds to the NMSU 40Similar
Q2 14:53
2ND & 18
OWN 40
+4
70.0%
Diego Pavia pass complete to Eli Stowers for 4 yds to the NMSU 44Similar
Q2 14:53
3RD & 14
OWN 44
+13
69.5%
Diego Pavia pass complete to Jordin Parker for 13 yds to the JVST 43Similar
Q2 14:53
1ST & 10
OWN 48
-15
70.4%
New Mexico State Penalty, Chop Block (-15 Yards) to the NMSU 37Similar
Q2 8:30
4TH & 1
OPP 43
0
73.9%
Diego Pavia pass complete to Donovan Faupel for no gain to the JVST 43Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
JXSTDrive 6FG
5 plays · 41 yds · 1:2128% → 31%
Q2 8:30
1ST & 10
OWN 43
+37
71.8%
Zion Webb pass complete to Perry Carter for 37 yds to the NMSU 20 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 8:30
1ST & 10
OPP 20
+2
69.9%
Ron Wiggins run for 2 yds to the NMSU 18Similar
Q2 8:30
2ND & 8
OPP 18
0
69.9%
Zion Webb pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 8:30
3RD & 8
OPP 18
+2
71.1%
Zion Webb pass complete to P.J. Wells for 2 yds to the NMSU 16Similar
Q2 7:09
4TH & 6
OPP 16
+33
69.1%
Alen Karajic 33 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NMSUDrive 7FUMBLE
3 plays · 49 yds · 1:1171% → 73%
Q2 7:09
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+15
70.9%
Jacksonville State Penalty, Personal Foul (Marco Baker) to the JVST 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 7:09
1ST & 10
OPP 36
+14
72.1%
Makhilyn Young run for 14 yds to the JVST 22 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 5:58
1ST & 10
OPP 22
-4
72.7%
Makhilyn Young run for a loss of 4 yards to the JVST 26 Makhilyn Young fumbled, recovered by JVST Quae Drake [SG] YOUNG, Makhilyn rush up the middle for a loss of 4 yards, YOUNG, Makhilyn fumbled at JSU24 forced by MARKS, Jeff, recovered by JSU DRAKE, Quae at the JSU26, returned 0 yards to the JSU26, End of Play, clock 05:58.Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
JXSTDrive 8MISSED FG
7 plays · 56 yds · 2:2730% → 28%
Q2 5:58
1ST & 10
OWN 26
+11
70.2%
Anwar Lewis run for 11 yds to the JVST 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 5:58
1ST & 10
OWN 37
+4
69.5%
Anwar Lewis run for 4 yds to the JVST 41Similar
Q2 5:58
2ND & 6
OWN 41
+38
68.9%
Zion Webb pass complete to Perry Carter for 38 yds to the NMSU 21 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 5:58
1ST & 10
OPP 21
+4
67.1%
Anwar Lewis run for 4 yds to the NMSU 17Similar
Q2 5:58
2ND & 6
OPP 17
-1
67.1%
Zion Webb run for a loss of 1 yard to the NMSU 18Similar
Q2 5:58
3RD & 7
OPP 18
0
68.1%
Zion Webb pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 3:31
4TH & 7
OPP 18
+36
72.4%
Alen Karajic 36 yd FG MISSEDSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NMSUDrive 9FG
18 plays · 70 yds · 3:3173% → 80%
Q2 3:31
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+5
73.4%
Monte Watkins run for 5 yds to the NMSU 25Similar
Q2 3:31
2ND & 5
OWN 25
+8
73.5%
Diego Pavia run for 8 yds to the NMSU 33 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 3:31
1ST & 10
OWN 33
+1
73.6%
Star Thomas run for 1 yd to the NMSU 34Similar
Q2 3:31
2ND & 9
OWN 34
0
73.5%
Diego Pavia pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 3:31
3RD & 9
OWN 34
+10
72.8%
Diego Pavia run for 10 yds to the NMSU 44 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 1:04
1ST & 10
OWN 44
+8
76.0%
Diego Pavia run for 8 yds to the JVST 48Similar
Q2 1:04
2ND & 2
OPP 48
+4
76.3%
Diego Pavia pass complete to Star Thomas for 4 yds to the JVST 44 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 1:04
1ST & 10
OPP 44
0
76.4%
Diego Pavia pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 1:04
2ND & 10
OPP 44
+8
76.2%
Diego Pavia pass complete to Donovan Faupel for 8 yds to the JVST 36Similar
Q2 1:04
3RD & 2
OPP 36
+11
75.5%
Star Thomas run for 11 yds to the JVST 25 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:24
1ST & 10
OPP 25
+9
76.8%
Diego Pavia pass complete to Thomaz Whitford for 9 yds to the JVST 16Similar
Q2 0:24
2ND & 1
OPP 16
+6
76.8%
Diego Pavia pass complete to Star Thomas for 6 yds to the JVST 10 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:24
1ST & GOAL
OPP 10
0
76.8%
Diego Pavia pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 0:03
2ND & GOAL
OPP 10
0
77.4%
Diego Pavia pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 0:00
3RD & GOAL
OPP 10
+27
80.4%
Ethan Albertson 27 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
JXSTDrive 10PUNT
5 plays · -20 yds · 1:3720% → 18%
Q3 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 25
-10
79.7%
JACKSON, Malik rush to the right for a gain of 5 yards to the JSU30 (ROWSER, Myles). PENALTY JSU Illegal Block in the Back on CARTER, Perry enforced 10 yards from the JSU25 to the JSU15 [NHSG]. NO PLAY (replay the down).Similar
Q3 15:00
1ST & 20
OWN 15
+4
79.8%
Malik Jackson run for 4 yds to the JVST 19Similar
Q3 15:00
2ND & 16
OWN 19
0
80.0%
Zion Webb pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 15:00
3RD & 16
OWN 19
-10
80.2%
WEBB, Zion sacked for a loss of 10 yards at the JSU9 (REED, Izaiah). PENALTY Before the snap, JSU Delay Of Game on DAWSON, Jack enforced half the distance from the goal, 4 yards from the end of the play at the JSU9 to the JSU5. NO PLAY (replay the down).Similar
Q3 13:23
4TH & 30
OWN 5
0
81.9%
Jack Dawson punt for 48 yds , Jonathan Brady returns for no gain to the NMSU 36Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NMSUDrive 11PUNT
8 plays · 17 yds · 3:5582% → 84%
Q3 13:23
1ST & 10
OWN 36
+9
82.0%
Jamoni Jones run for 9 yds to the NMSU 45Similar
Q3 13:23
2ND & 1
OWN 45
0
82.6%
Jamoni Jones run for no gain to the NMSU 45Similar
Q3 13:23
3RD & 1
OWN 45
+6
81.8%
Diego Pavia run for 6 yds to the JVST 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 13:23
1ST & 10
OPP 49
0
82.6%
Diego Pavia pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 13:23
2ND & 10
OPP 49
+6
82.5%
Diego Pavia run for 6 yds to the JVST 43Similar
Q3 13:23
3RD & 4
OPP 43
+1
81.9%
Jonathan Brady run for 1 yd to the JVST 42Similar
Q3 13:23
4TH & 3
OPP 42
-5
81.0%
New Mexico State Penalty, Delay Of Game (Diego Pavia) to the JVST 47Similar
Q3 9:28
4TH & 8
OPP 47
0
83.9%
Zach Haynes punt for 46 yds, downed at the JVST 1Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
JXSTDrive 12PUNT
4 plays · 2 yds · 1:2616% → 15%
Q3 9:28
1ST & 10
OWN 1
+1
83.7%
Ron Wiggins run for 1 yd to the JVST 2Similar
Q3 9:28
2ND & 9
OWN 2
0
83.9%
Zion Webb pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 9:28
3RD & 9
OWN 2
+1
84.1%
Ron Wiggins run for 1 yd to the JVST 3Similar
Q3 8:02
4TH & 8
OWN 3
0
85.1%
Jack Dawson punt for 51 ydsSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NMSUDrive 13FUMBLE
10 plays · 46 yds · 5:3487% → 91%
Q3 8:02
1ST & 10
OPP 47
+4
86.5%
Diego Pavia pass complete to Eli Stowers for 4 yds to the JVST 43Similar
Q3 8:02
2ND & 6
OPP 43
+3
86.4%
Star Thomas run for 3 yds to the JVST 40Similar
Q3 8:02
3RD & 3
OPP 40
+3
85.9%
Star Thomas run for 3 yds to the JVST 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 8:02
1ST & 10
OPP 37
0
86.5%
Star Thomas run for no gain to the JVST 37Similar
Q3 8:02
2ND & 10
OPP 37
+3
86.4%
Diego Pavia pass complete to Jamoni Jones for 3 yds to the JVST 34Similar
Q3 8:02
3RD & 7
OPP 34
+18
85.9%
Jamoni Jones run for 18 yds to the JVST 16 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 8:02
1ST & 10
OPP 16
+12
86.5%
Diego Pavia pass complete to Eli Stowers for 12 yds to the JVST 4 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 8:02
1ST & GOAL
OPP 4
+3
86.5%
Diego Pavia run for 3 yds to the JVST 1Similar
Q3 2:28
2ND & GOAL
OPP 1
0
91.4%
Diego Pavia run for no gain to the JVST 1 Diego Pavia fumbled, recovered by JVST Jalen Bustamante [SG] QB Keeper PAVIA, Diego rush up the middle for no gain, PAVIA, Diego fumbled at JSU1 forced by HALE, Laletia, recovered by JSU BUSTAMANTE, Jalen at the JSU1, returned 0 yards to the JSU1, End of Play, clock 02:28.Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
JXSTDrive 14INT
5 plays · 38 yds · 1:1813% → 14%
Q3 2:28
1ST & 10
OWN 1
+24
87.5%
Zion Webb pass complete to Quinton Lane for 24 yds to the JVST 25 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 2:28
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+12
86.8%
Anwar Lewis run for 12 yds to the JVST 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 2:28
1ST & 10
OWN 37
0
85.3%
Zion Webb pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 2:28
2ND & 10
OWN 37
+2
85.5%
Zion Webb run for 2 yds to the JVST 39Similar
Q3 1:10
3RD & 8
OWN 39
-31
86.5%
Zion Webb pass intercepted Myles Rowser return for 31 yds to the JVST 35Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NMSUDrive 15INT
1 play · 0 yds · 0:0092% → 92%
Q3 0:59
1ST & 10
OPP 35
-62
92.4%
Diego Pavia pass intercepted Jeremiah Harris return for 62 yds to the NMSU 8Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
JXSTDrive 16FG
5 plays · -1 yds · 1:0716% → 18%
Q3 0:59
1ST & GOAL
OPP 8
+2
83.6%
Anwar Lewis run for 2 yds to the NMSU 6Similar
Q3 0:00
2ND & GOAL
OPP 6
+2
85.5%
Anwar Lewis run for 2 yds to the NMSU 4Similar
Q4 15:00
3RD & GOAL
OPP 4
-5
86.3%
Jacksonville State Penalty, False Start (Brock Robey) to the NMSU 9Similar
Q4 15:00
3RD & GOAL
OPP 9
0
86.7%
Zion Webb pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 14:52
4TH & GOAL
OPP 9
+27
82.3%
Alen Karajic 27 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NMSUDrive 17PUNT
7 plays · 14 yds · 2:5785% → 86%
Q4 14:52
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+4
85.2%
Makhilyn Young run for 4 yds to the NMSU 29Similar
Q4 14:52
2ND & 6
OWN 29
+3
85.3%
Jamoni Jones run for 3 yds to the NMSU 32Similar
Q4 14:52
3RD & 3
OWN 32
+6
84.8%
Diego Pavia pass complete to Trent Hudson for 6 yds to the NMSU 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 14:52
1ST & 10
OWN 38
+1
86.2%
Jamoni Jones run for 1 yd to the NMSU 39Similar
Q4 14:52
2ND & 9
OWN 39
0
86.2%
Diego Pavia pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 14:52
3RD & 9
OWN 39
0
85.4%
Diego Pavia pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 11:55
4TH & 9
OWN 39
0
85.8%
Zach Haynes punt for 35 ydsSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
JXSTDrive 18INT
10 plays · 59 yds · 3:0515% → 12%
Q4 11:55
1ST & 10
OWN 26
+1
85.4%
Anwar Lewis run for 1 yd to the JVST 27Similar
Q4 11:55
2ND & 9
OWN 27
+14
85.9%
Zion Webb pass complete to Perry Carter for 14 yds to the JVST 41 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 11:55
1ST & 10
OWN 41
+7
83.4%
Zion Webb pass complete to Michael Pettway for 7 yds to the JVST 48Similar
Q4 11:55
2ND & 3
OWN 48
+5
82.7%
Anwar Lewis run for 5 yds to the NMSU 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 11:55
1ST & 10
OPP 47
+11
82.1%
Zion Webb pass complete to Perry Carter for 11 yds to the NMSU 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 11:55
1ST & 10
OPP 36
+28
82.1%
Zion Webb pass complete to Michael Pettway for 28 yds to the NMSU 8 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 11:55
1ST & GOAL
OPP 8
+2
80.0%
Zion Webb run for 2 yds to the NMSU 6Similar
Q4 11:55
2ND & GOAL
OPP 6
-15
80.0%
WEBB, Zion pass to the right incomplete intended for CARTER, Perry thrown to the NMS0; QB hurried by REED, Izaiah. PENALTY JSU Block below the waist on LEWIS, Anwar enforced 15 yards from the NMS6 to the NMS21 [NHSG]. NO PLAY (replay the down).Similar
Q4 11:55
2ND & GOAL
OPP 21
+6
81.3%
Zion Webb pass complete to Malik Jackson for 6 yds to the NMSU 15Similar
Q4 8:50
3RD & GOAL
OPP 15
0
87.9%
Zion Webb pass intercepted, touchback. Dylan Early return for no gainSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NMSUDrive 19INT
3 plays · 3 yds · 1:3191% → 91%
Q4 8:50
1ST & 10
OWN 20
-1
90.8%
Diego Pavia run for a loss of 1 yard to the NMSU 19Similar
Q4 8:50
2ND & 11
OWN 19
+4
90.6%
Monte Watkins run for 4 yds to the NMSU 23Similar
Q4 7:19
3RD & 7
OWN 23
0
91.3%
Diego Pavia pass intercepted Geimere Latimer return for no gain to the NMSU 22Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
JXSTDrive 20TD
4 plays · 22 yds · 0:5613% → 43%
Q4 7:19
1ST & 10
OPP 22
0
86.8%
Zion Webb pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 7:19
2ND & 10
OPP 22
+7
87.4%
Zion Webb pass complete to Michael Pettway for 7 yds to the NMSU 15Similar
Q4 7:19
3RD & 3
OPP 15
+4
88.0%
Malik Jackson run for 4 yds to the NMSU 11 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 6:23
1ST & 10
OPP 11
+11
57.2%
Malik Jackson run for 11 yds for a TD (Z. Webb Run For Two-point Conversion)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NMSUDrive 21PUNT
9 plays · 9 yds · 2:4373% → 80%
Q4 6:23
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+7
72.8%
Diego Pavia run for 7 yds to the NMSU 32Similar
Q4 6:23
2ND & 3
OWN 32
-10
74.7%
THOMAS, Star rush to the right for a loss of 1 yard to the NMS31 (FUQUA, Kolbi), out of bounds. PENALTY NMS Holding on HUDSON, Trent enforced 10 yards from the NMS32 to the NMS22 [SG]. NO PLAY (replay the down).Similar
Q4 6:23
2ND & 13
OWN 22
+13
71.8%
Diego Pavia pass complete to Star Thomas for 13 yds to the NMSU 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 4:41
1ST & 10
OWN 35
+2
74.7%
Star Thomas run for 2 yds to the NMSU 37Similar
Q4 3:58
2ND & 8
OWN 37
+4
80.2%
Diego Pavia run for 4 yds to the NMSU 41Similar
Q4 3:48
3RD & 4
OWN 41
-7
82.7%
Diego Pavia sacked by Chris Hardie for a loss of 7 yards to the NMSU 34Similar
Q4 3:40
4TH & 11
OWN 34
0
79.6%
Zach Haynes punt for 27 yds, downed at the JVST 39Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
JXSTDrive 22FG
13 plays · 52 yds · 2:5729% → 54%
Q4 3:40
1ST & 10
OWN 39
+16
71.5%
Zion Webb pass complete to Perry Carter for 16 yds to the NMSU 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 3:40
1ST & 10
OPP 45
0
67.6%
Zion Webb pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 3:40
2ND & 10
OPP 45
+5
68.4%
Zion Webb pass complete to Michael Pettway for 5 yds to the NMSU 40Similar
Q4 3:40
3RD & 5
OPP 40
0
68.0%
Zion Webb pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 3:40
4TH & 5
OPP 40
+6
71.1%
Zion Webb run for 6 yds to the NMSU 34 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 3:40
1ST & 10
OPP 34
0
64.7%
Zion Webb pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 3:40
2ND & 10
OPP 34
+7
65.0%
Zion Webb pass complete to Perry Carter for 7 yds to the NMSU 27Similar
Q4 3:40
3RD & 3
OPP 27
+15
67.0%
Malik Jackson run for 15 yds to the NMSU 12 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 3:40
1ST & 10
OPP 12
+2
64.3%
Malik Jackson run for 2 yds to the NMSU 10Similar
Q4 3:40
2ND & 8
OPP 10
-5
64.3%
Zion Webb pass incomplete Jacksonville State Penalty, Illegal Forward Pass (Zion Webb) to the NMSU 12Similar
Q4 0:44
3RD & 10
OPP 12
+3
74.5%
Zion Webb pass complete to Malik Jackson for 3 yds to the NMSU 9Similar
Q4 0:43
4TH & 7
OPP 9
+27
46.4%
Alen Karajic 27 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NMSUDrive 23FG
7 plays · 50 yds · 0:4357% → 96%
Q4 0:43
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+10
57.0%
Diego Pavia run for 10 yds to the NMSU 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 0:43
1ST & 10
OWN 35
+37
57.8%
Diego Pavia pass complete to Trent Hudson for 37 yds to the JVST 28 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 0:21
1ST & 10
OPP 28
+3
67.3%
Diego Pavia run for 3 yds to the JVST 25Similar
Q4 0:02
2ND & 7
OPP 25
0
70.1%
Diego Pavia run for no gain to the JVST 25Similar
Q4 0:00
3RD & 7
OPP 25
+52
96.1%
Ethan Albertson 52 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
TD · Q4 6:23
Malik Jackson run for 11 yds for a TD (Z. Webb Run For Two-point Conversion)
-30.7
FG · Q4 0:43
Alen Karajic 27 yd FG GOOD
-28.1
FG · Q4 0:00
Ethan Albertson 52 yd FG GOOD
+26
YardLine · model v10Model estimate - not betting advice · Data provided by CollegeFootballData.com