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PSU

Penn State 42 at Michigan State 0

MSU
2023 · Week 13 · Nov 24, 2023 · Ford Field
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Win probability · MSU
modelMSU aheadPSU aheadconfidence bandkey playMSU scorePSU score
0%25%50%75%100%Q1Q2Q3Q4FGFGTDTDTDTDTDEnd of Game
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q1 1:35 · Ryan Eckley punt for 59 yds
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Pregame priorHome team on offenseScore differentialGarbage-time factorScore diff ÷ offense timeoutsScore diff ÷ seconds remaining
+59.5+29.80−29.8−59.5Q1Q2Q3Q4Play 33Pregame prior−39.4Home team on offense−2.0Score differential−0.2Garbage-time factor−0.2Score diff ÷ offense timeouts−0.7Score diff ÷ seconds remaining+0.0
This game in five plays
  1. FG · Q1 9:50: Alex Felkins 49 yd FG GOOD — MSU win probability +1.9 pts (now 9%) (top driver: PSU has the ball).
  2. TD · Q2 4:51: Drew Allar pass complete to Kaytron Allen for 2 yds for a TD (Alex Felkins KICK) — PSU win probability +4.3 pts (now 92%) (top driver: PSU has the ball).
  3. KEY PLAY · Q3 15:00: Jaren Mangham run for 1 yd to the MSU 26 — MSU win probability +2.3 pts (now 12%) (top driver: MSU has the ball).
  4. TD · Q3 10:13: Beau Pribula pass complete to Tyler Warren for 8 yds for a TD (Drew Allar pass to KeAndre Lambert-Smith for Two-Point Conversion) — PSU win probability +6.4 pts (now 97%) (top driver: PSU has the ball).
  5. TD · Q3 4:13: Beau Pribula run for 2 yds for a TD (Alex Felkins KICK) — PSU win probability +1.8 pts (now 99%) (top driver: PSU has the ball).
Was that the right call?

Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works

Fourth downs
MSU made the numbers' call on 8 of 9PSU made the numbers' call on 5 of 7
  1. Q1 9:50PSU 4th & 14 at MSU 32, tied
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 88.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    88.2%−0.1
    19% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    88.3%
    51% to make
    Punt
    88.3%−0.1
    average punt
  2. Q1 2:35PSU 4th & 5 at MSU 23, up 3
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 85.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    85.6%−<0.1
    40% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    85.6%
    70% to make
    Punt
    84.6%−1.0
    average punt
  3. Q1 1:35MSU 4th & 2 at MSU 31, down 3
    Close callPunted · 14.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    14.7%
    57% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    14.7%−0.1
    average punt
  4. Q2 12:11PSU 4th & 13 at MSU 13, up 3
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 83.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    82.3%−0.6
    17% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    82.9%
    85% to make
    Punt
    80.6%−2.3
    average punt
  5. Q2 10:16MSU 4th & 21 at MSU 14, down 6
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 15.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    14.1%−1.4
    8% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    15.5%
    average punt
  6. Q2 0:51PSU 4th & 10 at PSU 48, up 13
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 87.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    87.1%−0.4
    29% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    87.5%
    average punt
  7. Q3 13:19MSU 4th & 23 at MSU 12, down 13
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 12.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    12.1%−1.4
    6% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    13.5%
    average punt
  8. Q3 11:19PSU 4th & 1 at MSU 11, up 13
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 88.9% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    88.5%
    71% to convert
    Field goal
    87.0%−1.5
    87% to make
    Punt
    82.1%−6.4
    average punt
  9. Q3 7:14MSU 4th & 25 at MSU 26, down 21
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 4.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    3.9%−1.6
    6% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    5.4%
    average punt
  10. Q3 3:38MSU 4th & 9 at MSU 26, down 28
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 0.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    0.9%−0.1
    30% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    1.0%
    average punt
  11. Q3 0:53PSU 4th & 1 at PSU 49, up 28
    Close callPunted · 98.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    98.9%
    70% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    98.7%−0.2
    average punt
  12. Q4 14:12MSU 4th & 21 at MSU 9, down 28
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 0.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    0.4%−0.2
    8% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    0.6%
    average punt
  13. Q4 10:09MSU 4th & 29 at MSU 6, down 35
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 0.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    0.1%−0.2
    6% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    0.2%
    average punt
  14. Q4 5:34MSU 4th & 12 at MSU 23, down 42
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 0.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    0.1%−0.1
    22% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    0.2%
    average punt
  15. Q4 3:13PSU 4th & 2 at PSU 39, up 42
    Close callPunted · 99.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    99.8%
    57% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    99.8%−0.1
    average punt
  16. Q4 0:56MSU 4th & 14 at MSU 6, down 42
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 0.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    0.1%−<0.1
    16% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    0.1%
    average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
PSU made the numbers' call on 4 of 5
  1. Q2 4:51PSU Touchdown, up 12 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    87.4%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    87.4%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  2. Q3 10:13PSU Touchdown, up 19 before the try
    Close callWent for two · converted
    Kick
    93.0%
    97% to make
    Go for twoTheir call
    92.9%−0.1
    45% to convert
  3. Q3 4:13PSU Touchdown, up 27 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    99.2%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    99.1%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  4. Q4 12:29PSU Touchdown, up 34 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    99.8%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    99.8%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  5. Q4 7:58PSU Touchdown, up 41 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    99.9%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    99.9%−<0.1
    45% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chart
PSUDrive 1FG
10 plays · 43 yds · 5:1093% → 91%
Q1 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+8
7.2%
Kaytron Allen run for 8 yds to the PSU 33Similar
Q1 15:00
2ND & 2
OWN 33
+14
7.2%
Drew Allar pass complete to Dante Cephas for 14 yds to the PSU 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 47
+11
7.2%
Drew Allar pass complete to Kaytron Allen for 11 yds to the MSU 42 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 42
-1
7.2%
Kaytron Allen run for a loss of 1 yard to the MSU 43Similar
Q1 15:00
3RD & 9
OPP 41
+13
7.2%
Drew Allar pass complete to Theo Johnson for 13 yds to the MSU 28 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 28
0
7.2%
Drew Allar pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 15:00
2ND & 10
OPP 28
+3
7.2%
Kaytron Allen run for 3 yds to the MSU 25Similar
Q1 15:00
3RD & 7
OPP 25
-7
7.2%
Drew Allar sacked by Aaron Brule for a loss of 7 yards to the MSU 32Similar
Q1 15:00
2ND & 11
OPP 43
+2
7.2%
Kaytron Allen run for 2 yds to the MSU 41Similar
Q1 9:50
4TH & 14
OPP 32
+49
9.1%
Alex Felkins 49 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MSUDrive 2INT
10 plays · 46 yds · 3:329% → 11%
Q1 9:50
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+3
8.9%
Alante Brown run for 3 yds to the MSU 28Similar
Q1 9:50
2ND & 7
OWN 28
+3
8.9%
Katin Houser pass complete to Nathan Carter for 3 yds to the MSU 31Similar
Q1 9:50
3RD & 4
OWN 31
+11
8.8%
Katin Houser pass complete to Christian Fitzpatrick for 11 yds to the MSU 42 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 9:50
1ST & 10
OWN 42
-3
9.0%
Nathan Carter run for a loss of 3 yards to the MSU 39Similar
Q1 9:50
2ND & 13
OWN 39
+30
8.9%
Katin Houser pass complete to Montorie Foster Jr. for 30 yds to the PSU 31 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 9:50
1ST & 10
OPP 31
+5
9.1%
Katin Houser pass complete to Montorie Foster Jr. for 5 yds to the PSU 26Similar
Q1 9:50
2ND & 5
OPP 26
-5
9.1%
Michigan State Penalty, False Start (-5 Yards) to the PSU 31Similar
Q1 9:50
2ND & 10
OPP 31
+2
9.1%
Katin Houser pass complete to Tyrell Henry for 2 yds to the PSU 29Similar
Q1 6:18
3RD & 8
OPP 29
0
10.5%
Katin Houser pass intercepted Jaylen Reed return for no gain to the PSU 9Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
PSUDrive 3MISSED FG
9 plays · 68 yds · 3:4390% → 89%
Q1 6:18
1ST & 10
OWN 9
0
10.3%
Drew Allar pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 6:18
2ND & 10
OWN 9
+50
10.4%
Kaytron Allen run for 50 yds to the MSU 41 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 6:18
1ST & 10
OPP 41
+13
9.8%
Drew Allar pass complete to Dante Cephas for 13 yds to the MSU 28 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 6:18
1ST & 10
OPP 28
-5
9.7%
Penn State Penalty, False Start (Tyler Warren) to the MSU 33Similar
Q1 6:18
1ST & 15
OPP 33
+4
9.8%
Kaytron Allen run for 4 yds to the MSU 29Similar
Q1 6:18
2ND & 11
OPP 29
+4
9.8%
Drew Allar pass complete to Kaytron Allen for 4 yds to the MSU 25Similar
Q1 6:18
3RD & 7
OPP 25
+2
9.9%
Nicholas Singleton run for 2 yds to the MSU 23Similar
Q1 2:35
4TH & 5
OPP 23
+40
11.4%
Alex Felkins 40 yd FG MISSEDSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MSUDrive 4PUNT
5 plays · 8 yds · 1:0011% → 11%
Q1 2:35
1ST & 10
OWN 23
0
10.9%
Katin Houser pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 2:35
2ND & 10
OWN 23
+8
10.8%
Nathan Carter run for 8 yds to the MSU 31Similar
Q1 2:35
3RD & 2
OWN 31
0
10.8%
Katin Houser pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 1:35
4TH & 2
OWN 31
0
11.0%
Ryan Eckley punt for 59 ydsSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
PSUDrive 5FG
9 plays · 71 yds · 4:2488% → 88%
Q1 1:35
1ST & 10
OWN 16
+4
12.0%
Nicholas Singleton run for 4 yds to the PSU 20Similar
Q1 1:35
2ND & 6
OWN 20
+53
12.0%
Drew Allar pass complete to Nicholas Singleton for 53 yds to the MSU 27 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 0:00
1ST & 10
OPP 27
+6
11.5%
Nicholas Singleton run for 6 yds to the MSU 21Similar
Q2 15:00
2ND & 4
OPP 21
-10
11.5%
ALLAR, Drew pass short to the left complete for 11 yards to JOHNSON, Theo caught at the MSU19 and advanced to the MSU10 (HALADAY, Cal). PENALTY PSU Holding on FASHANU, Olumuyiwa enforced 10 yards from the MSU21 to the MSU31 [SG]. NO PLAY (replay the down).Similar
Q2 15:00
2ND & 14
OPP 31
+22
11.8%
Drew Allar pass complete to Theo Johnson for 22 yds to the MSU 9 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 15:00
1ST & GOAL
OPP 9
0
11.5%
Drew Allar pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 15:00
2ND & GOAL
OPP 9
+4
11.5%
Nicholas Singleton run for 4 yds to the MSU 5Similar
Q2 15:00
3RD & GOAL
OPP 5
-8
11.8%
Drew Allar sacked by Jordan Hall for a loss of 8 yards to the MSU 13Similar
Q2 12:11
4TH & GOAL
OPP 13
+30
12.0%
Alex Felkins 30 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MSUDrive 6PUNT
5 plays · -11 yds · 1:5512% → 13%
Q2 12:11
1ST & 10
OWN 25
-5
12.1%
Michigan State Penalty, False Start (-5 Yards) to the MSU 20Similar
Q2 12:11
1ST & 15
OWN 20
+4
12.2%
Katin Houser pass complete to Maliq Carr for 4 yds to the MSU 24Similar
Q2 12:11
2ND & 11
OWN 24
0
12.0%
Katin Houser run for no gain to the MSU 24Similar
Q2 12:11
3RD & 11
OWN 24
-10
11.8%
Katin Houser sacked by Curtis Jacobs for a loss of 10 yards to the MSU 14Similar
Q2 10:16
4TH & 21
OWN 14
0
12.8%
Ryan Eckley punt for 58 ydsSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
PSUDrive 7TD
10 plays · 64 yds · 5:2587% → 92%
Q2 10:16
1ST & 10
OWN 36
+2
12.9%
Nicholas Singleton run for 2 yds to the PSU 38Similar
Q2 10:16
2ND & 8
OWN 38
+15
12.7%
Drew Allar pass complete to Nicholas Singleton for 15 yds to the MSU 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 10:16
1ST & 10
OPP 47
+3
12.5%
Drew Allar pass complete to Theo Johnson for 3 yds to the MSU 44Similar
Q2 10:16
2ND & 7
OPP 44
+20
12.5%
Nicholas Singleton run for 20 yds to the MSU 24 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 10:16
1ST & 10
OPP 24
+11
12.2%
Drew Allar pass complete to Khalil Dinkins for 11 yds to the MSU 13 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 10:16
1ST & 10
OPP 13
+3
12.2%
Kaytron Allen run for 3 yds to the MSU 10Similar
Q2 10:16
2ND & 7
OPP 10
+9
12.2%
Nicholas Singleton run for 9 yds to the MSU 1 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 10:16
1ST & GOAL
OPP 1
-1
12.1%
Kaytron Allen run for a loss of 1 yard to the MSU 2Similar
Q2 10:16
2ND & GOAL
OPP 2
0
12.2%
Drew Allar pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 4:51
3RD & GOAL
OPP 2
+2
7.8%
Drew Allar pass complete to Kaytron Allen for 2 yds for a TD (Alex Felkins KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MSUDrive 8PUNT
12 plays · 29 yds · 2:558% → 9%
Q2 4:51
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+8
7.9%
Nathan Carter run for 8 yds to the MSU 33Similar
Q2 4:51
2ND & 2
OWN 33
+8
8.1%
Nathan Carter run for 8 yds to the MSU 41 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 4:51
1ST & 10
OWN 41
0
8.1%
Katin Houser pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 4:51
2ND & 10
OWN 41
+5
8.0%
Katin Houser pass complete to Maliq Carr for 5 yds to the MSU 46Similar
Q2 4:51
3RD & 5
OWN 46
+29
8.0%
Katin Houser pass complete to Maliq Carr for 29 yds to the PSU 25 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 4:51
1ST & 10
OPP 25
0
8.9%
Michigan State Penalty, Intentional Grounding (Alante Brown) to the PSU 38Similar
Q2 2:08
2ND & 24
OPP 39
-4
8.3%
Katin Houser pass complete to Maliq Carr for a loss of 4 yards to the PSU 43Similar
Q2 2:08
3RD & 28
OPP 43
+2
8.0%
Jaren Mangham run for 2 yds to the PSU 41Similar
Q2 2:04
4TH & 26
OPP 41
-5
7.9%
Michigan State Penalty, False Start (Alante Brown) to the PSU 46Similar
Q2 1:56
4TH & 31
OPP 46
0
8.6%
Ryan Eckley punt for 40 ydsSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
PSUDrive 9PUNT
8 plays · 42 yds · 1:0592% → 93%
Q2 1:56
1ST & 10
OWN 6
+14
7.7%
Drew Allar pass complete to Tyler Warren for 14 yds to the PSU 20 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 1:56
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+28
7.5%
Trey Potts run for 28 yds to the PSU 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 1:56
1ST & 10
OWN 48
0
7.0%
Drew Allar pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 1:56
2ND & 10
OWN 48
0
7.0%
Drew Allar pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 1:56
3RD & 10
OWN 48
+5
7.1%
Drew Allar pass complete to Trey Potts for 5 yds to the MSU 47Similar
Q2 0:55
4TH & 5
OPP 47
-5
7.3%
Penn State Penalty, Delay Of Game (TEAM) to the PSU 48Similar
Q2 0:51
4TH & 10
OWN 48
0
7.0%
Riley Thompson punt for 39 yds, fair catch by Tyrell Henry at the MSU 13Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MSUDrive 10END OF HALF
2 plays · -2 yds · 0:518% → 9%
Q2 0:51
1ST & 10
OWN 13
+2
8.1%
Jaren Mangham run for 2 yds to the MSU 15Similar
Q2 0:00
2ND & 8
OWN 15
-4
9.3%
Katin Houser sacked by Curtis Jacobs and Johnny Dixon for a loss of 4 yards to the MSU 11Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MSUDrive 11PUNT
4 plays · -13 yds · 1:4112% → 11%
Q3 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+1
11.6%
Jaren Mangham run for 1 yd to the MSU 26Similar
Q3 15:00
2ND & 9
OWN 26
-9
11.6%
Katin Houser sacked by Abdul Carter for a loss of 9 yards to the MSU 17Similar
Q3 15:00
3RD & 18
OWN 17
-5
11.1%
Katin Houser pass incomplete Michigan State Penalty, turnover on downs. PENALTY Illegal Touch-Pass on DUPLAIN, J.D. enforced (-5 Yards) to the MSU 12Similar
Q3 13:19
4TH & 23
OWN 12
0
11.4%
Ryan Eckley punt for 46 ydsSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
PSUDrive 12TD
9 plays · 51 yds · 3:1791% → 97%
Q3 13:30
1ST & 10
OWN 49
+9
9.5%
Drew Allar pass complete to Dante Cephas for 9 yds to the MSU 42Similar
Q3 13:30
2ND & 1
OPP 42
+22
9.4%
Drew Allar pass complete to KeAndre Lambert-Smith for 22 yds to the MSU 20 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 13:30
1ST & 10
OPP 20
+6
9.3%
Kaytron Allen run for 6 yds to the MSU 14Similar
Q3 11:19
2ND & 4
OPP 14
0
8.5%
Drew Allar pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 11:19
3RD & 4
OPP 14
+3
8.6%
Beau Pribula pass complete to Malick Meiga for 3 yds to the MSU 11Similar
Q3 11:19
4TH & 1
OPP 11
+3
9.4%
Kaytron Allen run for 3 yds to the MSU 8 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 10:13
1ST & GOAL
OPP 8
+8
3.0%
Beau Pribula pass complete to Tyler Warren for 8 yds for a TD (Drew Allar pass to KeAndre Lambert-Smith for Two-Point Conversion)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MSUDrive 13PUNT
7 plays · 1 yds · 2:594% → 3%
Q3 10:13
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+4
4.0%
Katin Houser pass complete to Christian Fitzpatrick for 4 yds to the MSU 29Similar
Q3 10:13
2ND & 6
OWN 29
+12
3.9%
Nathan Carter run for 12 yds to the MSU 41 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 10:13
1ST & 10
OWN 41
0
4.3%
Katin Houser pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 10:13
2ND & 10
OWN 41
-21
4.2%
run for a loss of 21 yards to the MSU 20Similar
Q3 10:13
3RD & 31
OWN 20
+6
4.0%
Nathan Carter run for 6 yds to the MSU 26Similar
Q3 7:14
4TH & 25
OWN 26
0
2.6%
Ryan Eckley punt for 61 ydsSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
PSUDrive 14TD
6 plays · 74 yds · 3:0197% → 99%
Q3 7:14
1ST & 10
OWN 26
0
2.9%
Drew Allar pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 7:14
2ND & 10
OWN 26
+4
3.0%
Nicholas Singleton run for 4 yds to the PSU 30Similar
Q3 7:14
3RD & 6
OWN 30
+8
3.0%
Drew Allar run for 8 yds to the PSU 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 7:14
1ST & 10
OWN 38
+60
2.8%
Drew Allar pass complete to Omari Evans for 60 yds to the MSU 2 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 7:14
1ST & GOAL
OPP 2
0
2.6%
Nicholas Singleton run for no gain to the MSU 2Similar
Q3 4:13
2ND & GOAL
OPP 2
+2
0.7%
Beau Pribula run for 2 yds for a TD (Alex Felkins KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MSUDrive 15PUNT
4 plays · 1 yds · 0:350% → 0%
Q3 4:13
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+1
0.3%
Jaren Mangham run for 1 yd to the MSU 26Similar
Q3 4:13
2ND & 9
OWN 26
0
0.3%
Katin Houser pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 4:13
3RD & 9
OWN 26
0
0.3%
Katin Houser pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 3:38
4TH & 9
OWN 26
0
0.3%
Ryan Eckley punt for 53 ydsSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
PSUDrive 16PUNT
6 plays · 20 yds · 2:4599% → 99%
Q3 3:38
1ST & 10
OWN 29
+6
0.9%
Kaytron Allen run for 6 yds to the PSU 35Similar
Q3 3:38
2ND & 4
OWN 35
+5
1.0%
Kaytron Allen run for 5 yds to the PSU 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 3:38
1ST & 10
OWN 40
+1
0.9%
Kaytron Allen run for 1 yd to the PSU 41Similar
Q3 3:38
2ND & 9
OWN 41
0
0.9%
Drew Allar pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 3:38
3RD & 9
OWN 41
+8
0.9%
Kaytron Allen run for 8 yds to the PSU 49Similar
Q3 0:53
4TH & 1
OWN 49
0
0.8%
Riley Thompson punt for 51 yds for a touchbackSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MSUDrive 17PUNT
4 plays · -11 yds · 1:410% → 0%
Q3 0:53
1ST & 10
OWN 20
0
0.2%
Nathan Carter run for no gain to the MSU 20Similar
Q3 0:00
2ND & 10
OWN 20
-2
0.2%
Katin Houser pass complete to Nathan Carter for a loss of 2 yards to the MSU 18Similar
Q4 15:00
3RD & 12
OWN 18
-9
0.2%
Katin Houser sacked by Adisa Isaac for a loss of 9 yards to the MSU 9Similar
Q4 14:12
4TH & 21
OWN 9
0
0.2%
Ryan Eckley punt for 57 ydsSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
PSUDrive 18TD
4 plays · 28 yds · 1:43100% → 100%
Q4 14:12
1ST & 10
OPP 28
+9
0.3%
Nicholas Singleton run for 9 yds to the MSU 19Similar
Q4 14:12
2ND & 1
OPP 19
+8
0.3%
Nicholas Singleton run for 8 yds to the MSU 11 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 14:12
1ST & 10
OPP 11
-10
0.3%
SINGLETON, Nicholas rush up the middle for no gain to the MSU11 (HANSEN, Maverick;TALLEY, Ken). PENALTY PSU Holding on WALLACE, Caedan enforced 10 yards from the MSU11 to the MSU21 [SG]. NO PLAY (replay the down).Similar
Q4 12:29
1ST & 20
OPP 21
+21
0.3%
Drew Allar pass complete to Theo Johnson for 21 yds for a TD (Alex Felkins KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MSUDrive 19PUNT
6 plays · -19 yds · 2:200% → 0%
Q4 12:29
1ST & 10
OWN 25
0
0.1%
Nathan Carter run for no gain to the MSU 25Similar
Q4 12:29
2ND & 10
OWN 25
+2
0.1%
Katin Houser run for 2 yds to the MSU 27Similar
Q4 12:29
3RD & 8
OWN 27
-10
0.1%
HOUSER, Katin pass short to the left complete for 16 yards to CARTER, Nate caught at the MSU30 and advanced to the MSU43 (ELLIS, Keaton). PENALTY MSU Holding on BALDWIN, Brandon enforced 10 yards from the MSU27 to the MSU17 [NHSG]. NO PLAY (replay the down).Similar
Q4 12:29
3RD & 18
OWN 17
-11
0.1%
Katin Houser sacked by Cam Miller for a loss of 11 yards to the MSU 6Similar
Q4 10:09
4TH & 29
OWN 6
0
0.1%
Ryan Eckley punt for 49 ydsSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
PSUDrive 20TD
4 plays · 58 yds · 2:11100% → 100%
Q4 10:09
1ST & 10
OWN 42
+40
0.2%
Kaytron Allen run for 40 yds to the MSU 18 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 10:09
1ST & 10
OPP 18
+3
0.2%
Nicholas Singleton run for 3 yds to the MSU 15Similar
Q4 10:09
2ND & 7
OPP 15
+1
0.2%
Nicholas Singleton run for 1 yd to the MSU 14Similar
Q4 7:58
3RD & 6
OPP 14
+14
0.1%
Nicholas Singleton run for 14 yds for a TD (Sander Sahaydak KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MSUDrive 21PUNT
5 plays · -2 yds · 2:240% → 0%
Q4 7:58
1ST & 10
OWN 25
-1
0.1%
Harold Joiner III run for a loss of 1 yard to the MSU 24Similar
Q4 7:58
2ND & 11
OWN 24
-2
0.0%
Davion Primm run for a loss of 2 yards to the MSU 22Similar
Q4 7:58
3RD & 13
OWN 22
+1
0.1%
Andrew Schorfhaar pass complete to Michael Masunas for 1 yd to the MSU 23Similar
Q4 5:34
4TH & 12
OWN 23
0
0.0%
Michael O'Shaughnessy punt for 46 yds, downed at the PSU 31Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
PSUDrive 22PUNT
4 plays · 8 yds · 2:21100% → 100%
Q4 5:34
1ST & 10
OWN 31
+2
0.1%
Nicholas Singleton run for 2 yds to the PSU 33Similar
Q4 5:34
2ND & 8
OWN 33
+3
0.1%
Nicholas Singleton run for 3 yds to the PSU 36Similar
Q4 5:34
3RD & 5
OWN 36
+3
0.1%
Nicholas Singleton run for 3 yds to the PSU 39Similar
Q4 3:13
4TH & 2
OWN 39
0
0.1%
Riley Thompson punt for 51 yds, fair catch by Tyrell Henry at the MSU 10Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MSUDrive 23PUNT
4 plays · -4 yds · 2:170% → 0%
Q4 3:13
1ST & 10
OWN 10
+1
0.0%
Davion Primm run for 1 yd to the MSU 11Similar
Q4 3:13
2ND & 9
OWN 11
+2
0.0%
Davion Primm run for 2 yds to the MSU 13Similar
Q4 3:13
3RD & 7
OWN 13
-7
0.0%
Andrew Schorfhaar sacked by Keon Wylie and TEAM for a loss of 7 yards to the MSU 6Similar
Q4 0:56
4TH & 14
OWN 6
0
0.0%
Ryan Eckley punt for 63 yds, fair catch by Daequan Hardy at the PSU 31Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
PSUDrive 24END OF GAME
2 plays · 29 yds · 0:56100% → 100%
Q4 0:56
1ST & 10
OWN 31
+24
0.1%
Nicholas Singleton run for 24 yds to the MSU 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 0:00
1ST & 10
OPP 45
+5
0.1%
Trey Potts run for 5 yds to the MSU 40Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
TD · Q3 10:13
Beau Pribula pass complete to Tyler Warren for 8 yds for a TD (Drew Allar pass to KeAndre Lambert-Smith for Two-Point Conversion)
-6.4
TD · Q2 4:51
Drew Allar pass complete to Kaytron Allen for 2 yds for a TD (Alex Felkins KICK)
-4.3
KEY PLAY · Q3 15:00
Jaren Mangham run for 1 yd to the MSU 26
+2.3
YardLine · model v10Model estimate - not betting advice · Data provided by CollegeFootballData.com