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UK

Kentucky 38 at Louisville 31

LOU
2023 · Week 13 · Nov 25, 2023 · L&N Federal Credit Union Stadium
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Win probability · LOU
modelLOU aheadUK aheadconfidence bandkey playLOU scoreUK score
0%25%50%75%100%Q1Q2Q3Q4TDTDFGTDTDTDFGTDTDTDEnd of Game
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q2 14:59 · Wilson Berry punt for 34 yds
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Pregame priorHome team on offenseGarbage-time factorScore diff ÷ seconds remainingScore diff ÷ offense timeoutsScore differential
+36.0+18.00−18.0−36.0Q1Q2Q3Q4Play 28Pregame prior+13.8Home team on offense+2.5Garbage-time factor−0.1Score diff ÷ seconds remaining+0.4Score diff ÷ offense timeouts+0.7Score differential+0.5
This game in five plays
  1. TD · Q3 5:50: Jawhar Jordan run for 1 yd for a TD (Nick Lopez KICK) — LOU win probability +11.0 pts (now 82%) (top driver: LOU has the ball).
  2. FG · Q4 10:21: Alex Raynor 46 yd FG GOOD — UK win probability +8.6 pts (now 43%) (top driver: UK has the ball).
  3. TD · Q4 8:37: Devin Leary pass complete to Ray Davis for 20 yds for a TD (Alex Raynor KICK) — UK win probability +29.4 pts (now 81%) (top driver: UK has the ball).
  4. TD · Q4 2:33: Jack Plummer pass complete to Ahmari Huggins-Bruce for 21 yds for a TD (Nick Lopez KICK) — LOU win probability +38.4 pts (now 63%) (top driver: LOU has the ball).
  5. TD · Q4 1:02: Ray Davis run for 37 yds for a TD (Alex Raynor KICK) — UK win probability +40.5 pts (now 92%) (top driver: UK has the ball).
Was that the right call?

Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works

Fourth downs
LOU made the numbers' call on 7 of 7UK made the numbers' call on 5 of 5
  1. Q1 12:06UK 4th & 23 at UK 39, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 30.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    30.1%−0.2
    7% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    30.3%
    average punt
  2. Q1 7:20LOU 4th & 1 at UK 38, tied
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 69.0% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    69.0%
    70% to convert
    Field goal
    68.6%−0.4
    38% to make
    Punt
    68.6%−0.4
    average punt
  3. Q2 14:59UK 4th & 17 at LOU 42, down 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 27.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    27.3%−0.6
    15% to convert
    Field goal
    27.7%−0.3
    30% to make
    PuntTheir call
    27.9%
    average punt
  4. Q2 13:31LOU 4th & 3 at LOU 15, up 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 71.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    71.4%−<0.1
    52% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    71.5%
    average punt
  5. Q2 4:25LOU 4th & 15 at UK 28, tied
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 64.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    63.2%−1.4
    17% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    64.7%
    60% to make
    Punt
    60.6%−4.0
    average punt
  6. Q2 2:27UK 4th & 8 at UK 45, down 3
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 31.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    30.8%−<0.1
    34% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    30.9%
    average punt
  7. Q2 0:12LOU 4th & 5 at LOU 49, up 3
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 67.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    67.6%−<0.1
    41% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    67.7%
    average punt
  8. Q3 5:50LOU 4th & 1 at UK 1, up 3
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 70.2% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    69.2%
    59% to convert
    Field goal
    65.8%−3.4
    94% to make
    Punt
    56.8%−12.4
    average punt
  9. Q4 14:14UK 4th & 2 at LOU 40, down 3
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 32.8% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    32.8%
    57% to convert
    Field goal
    29.1%−3.7
    34% to make
    Punt
    29.4%−3.3
    average punt
  10. Q4 10:21UK 4th & 13 at LOU 28, down 3
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 29.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    26.8%−4.0
    20% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    30.7%
    60% to make
    Punt
    19.8%−11.0
    average punt
  11. Q4 5:39LOU 4th & 1 at UK 38, down 7
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 26.6% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    25.7%
    70% to convert
    Field goal
    19.5%−6.1
    38% to make
    Punt
    17.9%−7.8
    average punt
  12. Q4 2:33LOU 4th & 6 at UK 21, down 7
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 23.4% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    18.9%
    38% to convert
    Field goal
    16.8%−2.1
    74% to make
    Punt
    10.1%−8.8
    average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
LOU made the numbers' call on 3 of 3UK made the numbers' call on 2 of 3
  1. Q1 3:40LOU Touchdown, up 6 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    71.3%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    71.3%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  2. Q2 8:07UK Touchdown, down 1 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    32.2%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    32.1%−0.1
    45% to convert
  3. Q3 5:50LOU Touchdown, up 9 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    83.4%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    83.2%−0.2
    45% to convert
  4. Q4 8:37UK Touchdown, up 6 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    69.4%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    69.0%−0.4
    45% to convert
  5. Q4 2:33LOU Touchdown, down 1 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    50.0%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    48.3%−1.7
    45% to convert
  6. Q4 1:02UK Touchdown, up 6 before the try
    Close callKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    85.3%−0.8
    97% to make
    Go for two
    86.1%
    45% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chart
UKDrive 1PUNT
6 plays · 4 yds · 2:4632% → 32%
Q1 14:52
1ST & 10
OWN 35
+4
68.4%
Ray Davis run for 4 yds to the UK 39Similar
Q1 14:16
2ND & 6
OWN 39
+13
68.2%
Ray Davis run for 13 yds to the LOU 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 13:35
1ST & 10
OPP 48
-4
68.1%
Ray Davis run for a loss of 4 yards to the UK 48Similar
Q1 12:50
2ND & 14
OWN 48
0
68.0%
Devin Leary pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 12:46
3RD & 14
OWN 48
-9
68.1%
Devin Leary sacked by Kameron Wilson for a loss of 9 yards to the UK 39Similar
Q1 12:06
4TH & 23
OWN 39
0
68.2%
Wilson Berry punt for 31 ydsSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
LOUDrive 2TD
14 plays · 70 yds · 8:1868% → 72%
Q1 11:58
1ST & 10
OWN 30
+1
68.1%
Jack Plummer pass complete to Chris Bell for 1 yd to the LOU 31Similar
Q1 11:30
2ND & 9
OWN 31
+3
68.0%
Jawhar Jordan run for 3 yds to the LOU 34Similar
Q1 10:45
3RD & 6
OWN 34
+8
67.8%
Jack Plummer run for 8 yds to the LOU 42 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 10:03
1ST & 10
OWN 42
+11
68.1%
Jack Plummer pass complete to Jamari Thrash for 11 yds to the UK 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 9:20
1ST & 10
OPP 47
+9
68.3%
Jack Plummer run for 9 yds to the UK 38Similar
Q1 8:49
2ND & 1
OPP 38
0
68.1%
Isaac Guerendo run for no gain to the UK 38Similar
Q1 8:06
3RD & 1
OPP 38
0
68.0%
Jawhar Jordan run for no gain to the UK 38Similar
Q1 7:20
4TH & 1
OPP 38
+2
67.5%
Jawhar Jordan run for 2 yds to the UK 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 6:41
1ST & 10
OPP 36
+12
68.1%
Jack Plummer pass complete to Jawhar Jordan for 12 yds to the UK 24 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 6:00
1ST & 10
OPP 24
0
68.2%
Jack Plummer pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 5:49
2ND & 10
OPP 24
+11
68.1%
Jack Plummer run for 11 yds to the UK 13 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 5:11
1ST & 10
OPP 13
+9
68.2%
Jawhar Jordan run for 9 yds to the UK 4Similar
Q1 4:33
2ND & 1
OPP 4
+3
68.1%
Jawhar Jordan run for 3 yds to the UK 1 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 3:40
1ST & GOAL
OPP 1
+1
71.7%
Jawhar Jordan run for 1 yd for a TD (Nick Lopez KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UKDrive 3PUNT
8 plays · 30 yds · 3:3130% → 29%
Q1 3:30
1ST & 10
OWN 28
+1
70.4%
Ray Davis run for 1 yd to the UK 29Similar
Q1 2:54
2ND & 9
OWN 29
0
70.4%
Devin Leary pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 2:49
3RD & 9
OWN 29
+25
70.9%
Devin Leary pass complete to Barion Brown for 25 yds to the LOU 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 2:02
1ST & 10
OPP 46
+11
69.3%
Barion Brown run for 11 yds to the LOU 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 1:21
1ST & 10
OPP 35
0
68.7%
Devin Leary pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 1:14
2ND & 10
OPP 35
+3
68.8%
Ray Davis run for 3 yds to the LOU 32Similar
Q1 0:37
3RD & 7
OPP 32
-10
69.5%
Devin Leary sacked by Ashton Gillotte for a loss of 10 yards to the LOU 42Similar
Q2 14:59
4TH & 17
OPP 42
0
71.2%
Wilson Berry punt for 34 ydsSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
LOUDrive 4PUNT
4 plays · 7 yds · 1:2071% → 70%
Q2 14:51
1ST & 10
OWN 8
+7
71.0%
Isaac Guerendo run for 7 yds to the LOU 15Similar
Q2 14:17
2ND & 3
OWN 15
0
71.2%
Isaac Guerendo run for no gain to the LOU 15Similar
Q2 13:40
3RD & 3
OWN 15
0
70.7%
Jack Plummer pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 13:31
4TH & 3
OWN 15
0
70.2%
Brady Hodges punt for 37 yds, downed at the UK 48Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UKDrive 5TD
9 plays · 52 yds · 5:1830% → 39%
Q2 13:25
1ST & 10
OWN 48
0
69.7%
Ramon Jefferson run for no gain to the UK 48Similar
Q2 12:44
2ND & 10
OWN 48
0
70.2%
Devin Leary pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 12:39
3RD & 10
OWN 48
+11
70.7%
Devin Leary pass complete to Khamari Anderson for 11 yds to the LOU 41 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 12:02
1ST & 10
OPP 41
+4
69.6%
Ramon Jefferson run for 4 yds to the LOU 37Similar
Q2 11:17
2ND & 6
OPP 37
+8
69.4%
Ramon Jefferson run for 8 yds to the LOU 29 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 10:30
1ST & 10
OPP 29
+16
68.7%
Devin Leary pass complete to Dane Key for 16 yds to the LOU 13 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 9:43
1ST & 10
OPP 13
+6
68.9%
Devin Leary pass complete to Tayvion Robinson for 6 yds to the LOU 7Similar
Q2 9:00
2ND & 4
OPP 7
-2
68.9%
Ramon Jefferson run for a loss of 2 yards to the LOU 9Similar
Q2 8:07
3RD & 6
OPP 9
+9
60.8%
Devin Leary pass complete to Dane Key for 9 yds for a TD (Alex Raynor KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
LOUDrive 6FG
8 plays · 31 yds · 3:3267% → 66%
Q2 7:57
1ST & 10
OWN 41
+3
66.7%
Jawhar Jordan run for 3 yds to the LOU 44Similar
Q2 7:22
2ND & 7
OWN 44
+4
67.1%
Jawhar Jordan run for 4 yds to the LOU 48Similar
Q2 6:46
3RD & 3
OWN 48
+29
66.5%
Jack Plummer pass complete to Kevin Coleman for 29 yds to the UK 23 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 6:18
1ST & 10
OPP 23
0
68.0%
Jack Plummer pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 6:12
2ND & 10
OPP 23
-15
67.9%
(06:12) JORDAN, Jawhar rush to the right for a loss of 3 yards to the KEN26 (JACKSON, D'Eryk;HAYES, Josaih), clock 06:07. PENALTY LOU Personal Foul on BELL, Chris enforced 15 yards from the KEN23 to the KEN38 [NHSG]. NO PLAY (replay the down).Similar
Q2 5:54
2ND & 25
OPP 38
+2
66.4%
Jack Plummer run for 2 yds to the UK 36Similar
Q2 5:07
3RD & 23
OPP 36
+8
65.4%
Jack Plummer pass complete to Nate Kurisky for 8 yds to the UK 28Similar
Q2 4:25
4TH & 15
OPP 28
+46
66.3%
Brock Travelstead 46 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UKDrive 7PUNT
6 plays · 12 yds · 1:4633% → 33%
Q2 4:13
1ST & 10
OWN 33
+10
66.7%
Devin Leary pass complete to Brenden Bates for 10 yds to the UK 43 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 3:30
1ST & 10
OWN 43
0
65.3%
Devin Leary pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 3:26
2ND & 10
OWN 43
-2
65.9%
Ray Davis run for a loss of 2 yards to the UK 41Similar
Q2 2:40
3RD & 12
OWN 41
+4
67.0%
Devin Leary pass complete to Ray Davis for 4 yds to the UK 45Similar
Q2 2:27
4TH & 8
OWN 45
0
66.9%
Wilson Berry punt for 55 yds for a touchbackSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
LOUDrive 8PUNT
11 plays · 29 yds · 2:1567% → 68%
Q2 2:27
1ST & 10
OWN 20
-1
66.7%
Isaac Guerendo run for a loss of 1 yard to the LOU 19Similar
Q2 1:51
2ND & 11
OWN 19
+10
66.2%
Jack Plummer pass complete to Jadon Thompson for 10 yds to the LOU 29Similar
Q2 1:25
3RD & 1
OWN 29
+3
66.2%
Jack Plummer pass complete to Ahmari Huggins-Bruce for 3 yds to the LOU 32 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 1:07
1ST & 10
OWN 32
+9
67.0%
Jack Plummer pass complete to Jamari Thrash for 9 yds to the LOU 41Similar
Q2 0:47
2ND & 1
OWN 41
+3
68.8%
Jack Plummer pass complete to Isaac Guerendo for 3 yds to the LOU 44 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:42
1ST & 10
OWN 44
0
68.9%
Jack Plummer pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 0:38
2ND & 10
OWN 44
+4
67.9%
Jack Plummer run for 4 yds to the LOU 48Similar
Q2 0:32
3RD & 6
OWN 48
+1
68.8%
Jack Plummer pass complete to Jimmy Calloway for 1 yd to the LOU 49Similar
Q2 0:12
4TH & 5
OWN 49
0
67.6%
Brady Hodges punt for 51 yds for a touchbackSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UKDrive 9END OF HALF
1 play · -1 yds · 0:0033% → 33%
Q2 0:06
1ST & 10
OWN 20
0
67.0%
(00:06) [SG] Kneel down by KEN at KEN19 (team loss of 1), clock 00:01.Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
LOUDrive 10TD
15 plays · 75 yds · 9:0967% → 82%
Q3 14:59
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+5
67.3%
Jawhar Jordan run for 5 yds to the LOU 30Similar
Q3 14:31
2ND & 5
OWN 30
+4
68.9%
Jawhar Jordan run for 4 yds to the LOU 34Similar
Q3 13:46
3RD & 1
OWN 34
+3
68.6%
Jack Plummer run for 3 yds to the LOU 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 13:13
1ST & 10
OWN 37
+11
69.3%
Kevin Coleman run for 11 yds to the LOU 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 12:31
1ST & 10
OWN 48
+4
70.4%
Jack Plummer run for 4 yds to the UK 48Similar
Q3 11:50
2ND & 6
OPP 48
0
70.7%
Jawhar Jordan run for no gain to the UK 48Similar
Q3 11:07
3RD & 6
OPP 48
+15
70.0%
Jack Plummer pass complete to Chris Bell for 15 yds to the UK 33 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 10:27
1ST & 10
OPP 33
+6
71.7%
Jawhar Jordan run for 6 yds to the UK 27Similar
Q3 9:51
2ND & 4
OPP 27
+7
72.2%
Jawhar Jordan run for 7 yds to the UK 20 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 9:13
1ST & 10
OPP 20
+6
72.3%
Isaac Guerendo run for 6 yds to the UK 14Similar
Q3 8:35
2ND & 4
OPP 14
+12
72.3%
Isaac Guerendo run for 12 yds to the UK 2 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 7:55
1ST & GOAL
OPP 2
+1
72.4%
Isaac Guerendo run for 1 yd to the UK 1Similar
Q3 7:19
2ND & GOAL
OPP 1
0
72.5%
Isaac Guerendo run for no gain to the UK 1Similar
Q3 6:29
3RD & GOAL
OPP 1
0
71.2%
Jack Plummer run for no gain to the UK 1Similar
Q3 5:50
4TH & GOAL
OPP 1
+1
82.2%
Jawhar Jordan run for 1 yd for a TD (Nick Lopez KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
LOUDrive 11TD
5 plays · 51 yds · 2:4170% → 69%
Q3 5:29
1ST & 10
OWN 49
+16
69.5%
Isaac Guerendo run for 16 yds to the UK 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 4:55
1ST & 10
OPP 35
+21
70.7%
Jack Plummer pass complete to Isaac Guerendo for 21 yds to the UK 14 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 4:20
1ST & 10
OPP 14
+3
70.7%
Jack Plummer pass complete to Isaac Guerendo for 3 yds to the UK 11Similar
Q3 3:37
2ND & 7
OPP 11
0
70.7%
Jawhar Jordan run for no gain to the UK 11Similar
Q3 2:48
3RD & 7
OPP 11
+11
69.3%
Jack Plummer pass complete to Joey Gatewood for 11 yds for a TD (Nick Lopez KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UKDrive 12TD
2 plays · 75 yds · 0:5836% → 39%
Q3 2:47
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+55
64.2%
Devin Leary pass complete to Izayah Cummings for 55 yds to the LOU 20 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 1:49
1ST & 10
OPP 20
+20
61.5%
Devin Leary pass complete to Ray Davis for 20 yds for a TD (Alex Raynor KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
LOUDrive 13FUMBLE
3 plays · 38 yds · 1:1368% → 68%
Q3 1:41
1ST & 10
OWN 10
+10
67.6%
Kevin Coleman run for 10 yds to the LOU 20 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 1:04
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+11
67.9%
Jack Plummer pass complete to Jamari Thrash for 11 yds to the LOU 31 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 0:28
1ST & 10
OWN 31
+17
68.4%
Jawhar Jordan run for 17 yds to the LOU 48 Jawhar Jordan fumbled, recovered by UK J.J. Weaver (00:28) [NHSG] JORDAN, Jawhar rush up the middle for a gain of 17 yards, JORDAN, Jawhar fumbled at LOU47 forced by WEAVER, J.J., recovered by KEN WEAVER, J.J. at the LOU48, returned 0 yards to the LOU48, End of Play, clock 00:06.Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UKDrive 14FG
11 plays · 20 yds · 4:5737% → 43%
Q3 0:18
1ST & 10
OPP 48
+7
63.2%
Devin Leary pass complete to Ray Davis for 7 yds to the LOU 41Similar
Q4 14:58
2ND & 3
OPP 41
+1
62.7%
Ray Davis run for 1 yd to the LOU 40Similar
Q4 14:19
3RD & 2
OPP 40
0
64.3%
Devin Leary pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 14:14
4TH & 2
OPP 40
+5
66.8%
Ray Davis run for 5 yds to the LOU 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 13:33
1ST & 10
OPP 35
-1
62.8%
Ray Davis run for a loss of 1 yard to the LOU 36Similar
Q4 12:51
2ND & 11
OPP 36
+11
64.5%
Barion Brown run for 11 yds to the LOU 25 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 12:05
1ST & 10
OPP 25
+1
62.1%
Ray Davis run for 1 yd to the LOU 24Similar
Q4 11:18
2ND & 9
OPP 24
0
62.1%
Devin Leary pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 11:12
3RD & 9
OPP 24
-4
65.9%
Devin Leary run for a loss of 4 yards to the LOU 28Similar
Q4 10:21
4TH & 13
OPP 28
+46
57.3%
Alex Raynor 46 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
LOUDrive 15FUMBLE
3 plays · -2 yds · 0:4162% → 62%
Q4 10:15
1ST & 10
OWN 28
+7
62.1%
Isaac Guerendo run for 7 yds to the LOU 35Similar
Q4 9:39
2ND & 3
OWN 35
0
64.4%
Jack Plummer pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 9:34
3RD & 3
OWN 35
-9
61.9%
Jack Plummer run for a loss of 9 yards to the LOU 22 D'Eryk Jackson fumbled, recovered by UK J.J. Weaver (09:34) [NHSG] QB Keeper PLUMMER, Jack rush to the right for a loss of 9 yards, PLUMMER, Jack fumbled at LOU35 forced by JACKSON, D'Eryk, recovered by KEN WEAVER, J.J. at the LOU26, returned 4 yards to the LOU22, End of Play, clock 09:23.Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UKDrive 16TD
2 plays · 22 yds · 0:4252% → 81%
Q4 9:19
1ST & 10
OPP 22
+2
48.4%
Ray Davis run for 2 yds to the LOU 20Similar
Q4 8:37
2ND & 8
OPP 20
+20
19.0%
Devin Leary pass complete to Ray Davis for 20 yds for a TD (Alex Raynor KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
LOUDrive 17DOWNS
7 plays · 24 yds · 2:5131% → 27%
Q4 8:30
1ST & 10
OWN 38
-7
31.4%
Jack Plummer sacked by J.J. Weaver for a loss of 7 yards to the LOU 31Similar
Q4 7:55
2ND & 17
OWN 31
+6
28.6%
Isaac Guerendo run for 6 yds to the LOU 37Similar
Q4 7:22
3RD & 11
OWN 37
+16
27.1%
Jack Plummer pass complete to Jamari Thrash for 16 yds to the UK 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 6:55
1ST & 10
OPP 47
0
31.2%
Jack Plummer pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 6:49
2ND & 10
OPP 47
+9
30.2%
Jack Plummer pass complete to Nate Kurisky for 9 yds to the UK 38Similar
Q4 6:18
3RD & 1
OPP 38
0
31.3%
Isaac Guerendo run for no gain to the UK 38Similar
Q4 5:39
4TH & 1
OPP 38
0
26.9%
Isaac Guerendo run for no gain to the UK 38Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UKDrive 18INT
3 plays · 1 yds · 0:4584% → 85%
Q4 5:33
1ST & 10
OWN 38
+1
16.4%
Ray Davis run for 1 yd to the UK 39Similar
Q4 4:52
2ND & 9
OWN 39
0
14.4%
Devin Leary pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 4:48
3RD & 9
OWN 39
-18
15.1%
Devin Leary pass intercepted Jarvis Brownlee Jr. return for 18 yds to the UK 25Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
LOUDrive 19TD
4 plays · 25 yds · 2:0032% → 63%
Q4 4:33
1ST & 10
OPP 25
+2
32.2%
Jawhar Jordan run for 2 yds to the UK 23Similar
Q4 3:58
2ND & 8
OPP 23
-6
31.9%
Jack Plummer sacked by Josaih Hayes for a loss of 6 yards to the UK 29Similar
Q4 3:18
3RD & 14
OPP 29
+8
24.5%
Jack Plummer pass complete to Nate Kurisky for 8 yds to the UK 21Similar
Q4 2:33
4TH & 6
OPP 21
+21
62.8%
Jack Plummer pass complete to Ahmari Huggins-Bruce for 21 yds for a TD (Nick Lopez KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UKDrive 20TD
4 plays · 75 yds · 1:3048% → 92%
Q4 2:32
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+15
52.1%
Ray Davis run for 15 yds to the UK 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 1:56
1ST & 10
OWN 40
0
47.8%
Devin Leary pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 1:51
2ND & 10
OWN 40
+23
49.0%
Devin Leary pass complete to Barion Brown for 23 yds to the LOU 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 1:02
1ST & 10
OPP 37
+37
8.5%
Ray Davis run for 37 yds for a TD (Alex Raynor KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
LOUDrive 21INT
11 plays · 40 yds · 0:4715% → 17%
Q4 0:55
1ST & 10
OWN 28
0
14.6%
Jack Plummer pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 0:50
2ND & 10
OWN 28
+6
13.2%
Jack Plummer pass complete to Jawhar Jordan for 6 yds to the LOU 34Similar
Q4 0:44
3RD & 4
OWN 34
+10
12.6%
Jack Plummer pass complete to Jamari Thrash for 10 yds to the LOU 44 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 0:37
1ST & 10
OWN 44
+3
14.5%
Jack Plummer pass complete to Jamari Thrash for 3 yds to the LOU 47Similar
Q4 0:31
2ND & 7
OWN 47
0
15.0%
Jack Plummer pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 0:27
3RD & 7
OWN 47
+14
12.1%
Jack Plummer pass complete to Joey Gatewood for 14 yds to the UK 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 0:14
1ST & 10
OPP 39
+7
12.2%
Jack Plummer pass complete to Jawhar Jordan for 7 yds to the UK 32Similar
Q4 0:08
2ND & 3
OPP 32
0
17.1%
Jack Plummer pass intercepted, touchback. Jordan Lovett return for no gainSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UKDrive 22END OF GAME
1 play · -1 yds · 0:0095% → 95%
Q4 0:00
1ST & 10
OWN 20
0
5.0%
Kneel down by KEN at KEN19 (team loss of 1), clock 00:00.Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
TD · Q4 1:02
Ray Davis run for 37 yds for a TD (Alex Raynor KICK)
-40.5
TD · Q4 2:33
Jack Plummer pass complete to Ahmari Huggins-Bruce for 21 yds for a TD (Nick Lopez KICK)
+38.4
TD · Q4 8:37
Devin Leary pass complete to Ray Davis for 20 yds for a TD (Alex Raynor KICK)
-29.4
YardLine · model v10Model estimate - not betting advice · Data provided by CollegeFootballData.com