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Northwestern 45 at Illinois 43

ILL
2023 · Week 13 · Nov 25, 2023 · Memorial Stadium (Champaign, IL)
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Win probability · ILL
modelILL aheadNU aheadconfidence bandkey playILL scoreNU score
0%25%50%75%100%Q1Q2Q3Q4TDFGTDTDFGTDTDTDTDFGTDTDTDTDFGTDTDEnd of Game
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q3 1:05 · Jack Olsen 45 yd FG MISSED
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Home team on offensePregame priorGarbage-time factorScore differentialScore diff ÷ seconds remainingScore diff ÷ offense timeouts
+37.0+18.50−18.5−37.0Q1Q2Q3Q4Play 119Home team on offense−10.4Pregame prior+2.7Garbage-time factor−4.3Score differential−4.2Score diff ÷ seconds remaining−3.1Score diff ÷ offense timeouts−1.9
This game in five plays
  1. TD · Q2 0:08: Anthony Tyus III run for 3 yards to the ILL 0. Fumble by Anthony Tyus III. Fumble Recovered by Dom D'Antonio at ILL 0 (Jack Olsen Kick) — NU win probability +16.4 pts (now 53%) (top driver: NU has the ball).
  2. TD · Q4 13:12: Pat Bryant 14 Yd pass from Isaiah Williams (John Paddock Pass to Tip Reiman for Two-Point Conversion) — ILL win probability +28.7 pts (now 73%) (top driver: ILL has the ball).
  3. TD · Q4 10:04: Ben Bryant run for 8 yds for a TD (Jack Olsen KICK) — NU win probability +34.1 pts (now 72%) (top driver: NU has the ball).
  4. TD · Q4 7:17: John Paddock pass complete to Casey Washington for 1 yd for a TD (Two-Point Conversion failed) — ILL win probability +17.0 pts (now 37%) (top driver: Blowout context favors the defense).
  5. TD · Q4 0:55: John Paddock pass complete to Casey Washington for 80 yds for a TD — ILL win probability +20.6 pts (now 25%) (top driver: ILL has the ball).
Was that the right call?

Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works

Fourth downs
ILL made the numbers' call on 5 of 7NU made the numbers' call on 2 of 6
  1. Q1 13:04ILL 4th & 4 at ILL 34, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 65.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    65.5%−<0.1
    48% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    65.5%
    average punt
  2. Q1 11:45NU 4th & 3 at NU 37, tied
    Close callPunted · 34.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    34.5%
    52% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    34.5%−<0.1
    average punt
  3. Q1 2:47ILL 4th & 2 at NU 24, down 7
    Close callKicked a field goal · 60.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    60.8%
    57% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    60.3%−0.5
    68% to make
    Punt
    57.5%−3.4
    average punt
  4. Q2 13:36ILL 4th & 1 at NU 33, down 11
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 55.0% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    55.1%
    71% to convert
    Field goal
    53.7%−1.3
    49% to make
    Punt
    53.3%−1.8
    average punt
  5. Q2 6:29NU 4th & 19 at NU 14, up 4
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 41.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    38.6%−2.7
    10% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    41.4%
    average punt
  6. Q2 2:19ILL 4th & 6 at NU 6, down 4
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 57.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    55.6%−0.3
    31% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    55.9%
    91% to make
    Punt
    49.7%−6.2
    average punt
  7. Q3 5:57ILL 4th & 3 at NU 22, down 8
    Close callKicked a field goal · 39.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    39.2%
    52% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    38.3%−0.9
    72% to make
    Punt
    28.4%−10.9
    average punt
  8. Q3 1:05NU 4th & 3 at ILL 27, up 5
    Numbers favored go for it by 1.8 ptsKicked a field goal · 62.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    62.5%
    52% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    60.7%−1.8
    62% to make
    Punt
    49.7%−12.8
    average punt
  9. Q4 11:19NU 4th & 2 at NU 31, down 3
    Close callPunted · 29.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    30.5%
    57% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    29.8%−0.7
    average punt
  10. Q4 7:17ILL 4th & 1 at NU 1, down 11
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 16.4% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    19.0%
    59% to convert
    Field goal
    12.2%−6.8
    94% to make
    Punt
    6.0%−13.0
    average punt
  11. Q4 2:56NU 4th & 12 at ILL 28, up 5
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 82.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    78.3%−2.7
    23% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    81.0%
    60% to make
    Punt
    70.5%−10.5
    average punt
  12. Q4 2:20ILL 4th & 3 at ILL 40, down 8
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 9.0% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    8.1%
    52% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    Punt
    6.0%−2.1
    average punt
  13. Q4 1:14NU 4th & 13 at ILL 35, up 8
    Close callPunted · 94.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    93.8%−0.8
    21% to convert
    Field goal
    94.6%
    45% to make
    PuntTheir call
    93.6%−1.0
    average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
ILL made the numbers' call on 3 of 4NU made the numbers' call on 6 of 6
  1. Q1 8:54NU Touchdown, up 6 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    36.4%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    36.3%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  2. Q2 13:43NU Touchdown, up 10 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    46.2%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    46.1%−0.1
    45% to convert
  3. Q2 9:13ILL Touchdown, down 5 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    59.1%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    59.0%−0.1
    45% to convert
  4. Q2 1:09ILL Touchdown, up 5 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    69.7%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    69.6%−0.1
    45% to convert
  5. Q2 0:08NU Touchdown, tied before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    38.9%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    38.8%−0.1
    45% to convert
  6. Q3 10:52NU Touchdown, up 7 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    58.1%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    57.9%−0.2
    45% to convert
  7. Q4 13:12ILL Touchdown, up 1 before the try
    Close callWent for two · converted
    Kick
    66.7%
    97% to make
    Go for twoTheir call
    66.7%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  8. Q4 10:04NU Touchdown, up 3 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    59.1%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    59.1%−0.1
    45% to convert
  9. Q4 9:55NU Touchdown, up 10 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    83.8%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    83.4%−0.4
    45% to convert
  10. Q4 7:17ILL Touchdown, down 5 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersWent for two · failed
    Kick
    30.0%−0.1
    97% to make
    Go for twoTheir call
    30.0%
    45% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chart
ILLDrive 1PUNT
5 plays · 6 yds · 1:5260% → 60%
Q1 14:56
1ST & 10
OWN 28
+1
60.2%
Reggie Love III run for 1 yd to the ILL 29Similar
Q1 14:56
2ND & 9
OWN 29
+4
60.2%
John Paddock pass complete to Isaiah Williams for 4 yds to the ILL 33Similar
Q1 14:56
3RD & 5
OWN 33
+1
60.2%
John Paddock pass complete to Pat Bryant for 1 yd to the ILL 34Similar
Q1 13:04
4TH & 4
OWN 34
0
60.1%
Hugh Robertson punt for 36 yds, fair catch by A.J. Henning at the NU 30Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NUDrive 2PUNT
4 plays · 7 yds · 1:1940% → 40%
Q1 13:04
1ST & 10
OWN 30
+4
60.2%
Cam Porter run for 4 yds to the NU 34Similar
Q1 13:04
2ND & 6
OWN 34
+3
60.1%
Ben Bryant pass complete to A.J. Henning for 3 yds to the NU 37Similar
Q1 13:04
3RD & 3
OWN 37
0
60.1%
Ben Bryant pass incomplete to A.J. HenningSimilar
Q1 11:45
4TH & 3
OWN 37
0
60.3%
Hunter Renner punt for 38 yds, fair catch by Isaiah Williams at the ILL 25Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ILLDrive 3INT
2 plays · 4 yds · 0:3660% → 60%
Q1 11:45
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+4
60.3%
Reggie Love III run for 4 yds to the ILL 29Similar
Q1 11:09
2ND & 6
OWN 29
0
60.3%
John Paddock pass intercepted Jaheem Joseph return for no gain to the ILL 26Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NUDrive 4TD
5 plays · 26 yds · 2:1540% → 43%
Q1 11:09
1ST & 10
OPP 26
+6
59.6%
Ben Bryant pass complete to Cam Porter for 6 yds to the ILL 20Similar
Q1 11:09
2ND & 4
OPP 20
+6
59.6%
Cam Porter run for 6 yds to the ILL 14 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 11:09
1ST & 10
OPP 14
+4
59.6%
Jack Lausch run for 4 yds to the ILL 10Similar
Q1 11:09
2ND & 6
OPP 10
0
59.6%
Ben Bryant pass incomplete to Bryce KirtzSimilar
Q1 8:54
3RD & 6
OPP 10
+10
57.1%
Ben Bryant pass complete to Cam Johnson for 10 yds for a TD (Jack Olsen KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ILLDrive 5FG
13 plays · 57 yds · 6:0258% → 59%
Q1 8:49
1ST & 10
OWN 19
+3
57.7%
Reggie Love III run for 3 yds to the ILL 22Similar
Q1 8:49
2ND & 7
OWN 22
+4
57.7%
Reggie Love III run for 4 yds to the ILL 26Similar
Q1 8:49
3RD & 3
OWN 26
+5
57.7%
John Paddock pass complete to Tip Reiman for 5 yds to the ILL 31 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 8:49
1ST & 10
OWN 31
+5
57.9%
Reggie Love III run for 5 yds to the ILL 36Similar
Q1 8:49
2ND & 5
OWN 36
+1
58.1%
Reggie Love III run for 1 yd to the ILL 37Similar
Q1 8:49
3RD & 4
OWN 37
+9
57.9%
John Paddock pass complete to Pat Bryant for 9 yds to the ILL 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 8:49
1ST & 10
OWN 46
+5
58.3%
John Paddock pass complete to Pat Bryant for 5 yds to the NU 49Similar
Q1 8:49
2ND & 5
OPP 49
+17
58.5%
Aidan Laughery run for 17 yds to the NU 32 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 8:49
1ST & 10
OPP 32
+1
58.8%
Aidan Laughery run for 1 yd to the NU 31Similar
Q1 8:49
2ND & 9
OPP 31
+8
58.8%
John Paddock pass complete to Reggie Love III for 8 yds to the NU 23Similar
Q1 8:49
3RD & 1
OPP 23
+1
58.5%
John Paddock run for 1 yd to the NU 24Similar
Q1 2:47
4TH & 2
OPP 24
+42
58.6%
Caleb Griffin 42 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NUDrive 6TD
13 plays · 73 yds · 3:5742% → 51%
Q1 2:40
1ST & 10
OWN 27
+4
57.8%
A.J. Henning run for 4 yds to the NU 31Similar
Q1 2:40
2ND & 6
OWN 31
+4
57.5%
Jack Lausch run for 4 yds to the NU 35Similar
Q1 2:40
3RD & 2
OWN 35
-5
57.6%
PENALTY NOR False Start (Priebe,Josh) 5 yards from NOR35 to NOR30. NO PLAY.Similar
Q1 2:40
3RD & 7
OWN 30
+10
58.1%
No Huddle-Shotgun Bryant,Ben sacked for loss of 3 yards to the NOR27 (Newton,Jer'Zhan) PENALTY ILL Holding (Strain,Tyler) 10 yards from NOR30 to NOR40, 1ST DOWN. NO PLAY.Similar
Q1 2:40
1ST & 10
OWN 40
+9
57.0%
Ben Bryant pass complete to Raymond Niro III for 9 yds to the NU 49Similar
Q1 2:40
2ND & 1
OWN 49
+7
56.8%
Ben Bryant run for 7 yds to the ILL 44 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 2:40
1ST & 10
OPP 44
0
56.8%
Ben Bryant pass incomplete to Bryce KirtzSimilar
Q1 0:00
2ND & 10
OPP 44
+18
55.4%
Ben Bryant pass complete to Cam Johnson for 18 yds to the ILL 26 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 26
+18
54.6%
Anthony Tyus III run for 18 yds to the ILL 8 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 15:00
1ST & GOAL
OPP 8
+7
54.6%
Anthony Tyus III run for 7 yds to the ILL 1Similar
Q2 13:43
2ND & GOAL
OPP 1
+1
48.8%
Anthony Tyus III run for 1 yd for a TD (Jack Olsen KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ILLDrive 7TD
10 plays · 57 yds · 4:2351% → 59%
Q2 13:36
1ST & 10
OWN 43
+4
50.6%
Reggie Love III run for 4 yds to the ILL 47Similar
Q2 13:36
2ND & 6
OWN 47
+11
50.9%
John Paddock pass complete to Isaiah Williams for 11 yds to the NU 42 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 13:36
1ST & 10
OPP 42
0
51.3%
John Paddock pass incomplete to Tanner ArkinSimilar
Q2 13:36
2ND & 10
OPP 42
+1
51.1%
Reggie Love III run for 1 yd to the NU 41Similar
Q2 13:36
3RD & 9
OPP 41
+8
50.8%
John Paddock pass complete to Pat Bryant for 8 yds to the NU 33Similar
Q2 13:36
4TH & 1
OPP 33
+6
50.6%
Reggie Love III run for 6 yds to the NU 27 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 13:36
1ST & 10
OPP 27
+14
52.0%
Reggie Love III run for 14 yds to the NU 13 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 13:36
1ST & 10
OPP 13
+4
52.0%
Aidan Laughery run for 4 yds to the NU 9Similar
Q2 9:13
2ND & 6
OPP 9
+9
58.7%
John Paddock pass complete to Casey Washington for 9 yds for a TD (Caleb Griffin KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NUDrive 8PUNT
6 plays · -9 yds · 2:3945% → 45%
Q2 9:08
1ST & 10
OWN 23
-10
54.7%
No Huddle Porter,Cam rush left for 3 yards gain to the NOR26 (Strain,Tyler; Harper,Nicario) PENALTY NOR Holding (Johnson,Cam) 10 yards from NOR23 to NOR13. NO PLAY.Similar
Q2 9:08
1ST & 20
OWN 13
+5
54.8%
Ben Bryant pass complete to Charlie Mangieri for 5 yds to the NU 18Similar
Q2 9:08
2ND & 15
OWN 18
-11
55.1%
Ben Bryant sacked by Jer'Zhan Newton for a loss of 11 yards to the NU 7Similar
Q2 9:08
3RD & 26
OWN 7
+7
56.1%
Cam Porter run for 7 yds to the NU 14Similar
Q2 6:29
4TH & 19
OWN 14
0
54.9%
Hunter Renner punt for 33 ydsSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ILLDrive 9FG
9 plays · 41 yds · 4:1057% → 57%
Q2 6:29
1ST & 10
OPP 47
0
56.6%
John Paddock pass incomplete to Casey WashingtonSimilar
Q2 6:29
2ND & 10
OPP 47
+2
56.3%
Isaiah Williams run for 2 yds to the NU 45Similar
Q2 6:29
3RD & 8
OPP 45
+18
55.8%
John Paddock pass complete to Casey Washington for 18 yds to the NU 27 for a 1ST down Northwestern Penalty, Defensive Offside (Ben Bryant) declined for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 6:29
1ST & 10
OPP 27
+5
57.5%
John Paddock pass complete to Tip Reiman for 5 yds to the NU 22Similar
Q2 6:29
2ND & 5
OPP 22
+13
57.5%
Reggie Love III run for 13 yds to the NU 9 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 6:29
1ST & GOAL
OPP 9
+1
57.5%
Reggie Love III run for 1 yd to the NU 10Similar
Q2 6:29
2ND & GOAL
OPP 10
-9
57.5%
John Paddock sacked by Jaylen Pate for a loss of 9 yards to the NU 19Similar
Q2 6:29
3RD & GOAL
OPP 19
+13
54.5%
John Paddock pass complete to Griffin Moore for 13 yds to the NU 6Similar
Q2 2:19
4TH & GOAL
OPP 6
+24
57.4%
Caleb Griffin 24 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NUDrive 10INT TD
6 plays · 14 yds · 1:0546% → 32%
Q2 2:14
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+6
53.8%
Joseph Himon II run for 6 yds to the NU 26Similar
Q2 2:14
2ND & 4
OWN 26
+11
52.9%
Ben Bryant pass complete to Bryce Kirtz for 11 yds to the NU 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 2:14
1ST & 10
OWN 37
+3
52.5%
Ben Bryant pass complete to Joseph Himon II for 3 yds to the NU 34Similar
Q2 2:14
2ND & 13
OWN 34
0
54.1%
Ben Bryant pass incomplete to Bryce KirtzSimilar
Q2 1:09
3RD & 13
OWN 34
-55
67.7%
Miles Scott 55 Yd Interception Return (Caleb Griffin Kick)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NUDrive 11TD
11 plays · 75 yds · 1:0134% → 53%
Q2 1:09
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+12
66.5%
Anthony Tyus III run for 12 yds to the NU 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 1:09
1ST & 10
OWN 37
+11
65.4%
Ben Bryant pass complete to Cam Johnson for 11 yds to the NU 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 1:09
1ST & 10
OWN 48
+15
63.7%
Ben Bryant run for 15 yds to the ILL 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:33
1ST & 10
OPP 37
+16
62.5%
Ben Bryant pass complete to Bryce Kirtz for 16 yds to the ILL 21 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:33
1ST & 10
OPP 21
+2
60.8%
Ben Bryant pass complete to A.J. Henning for 2 yds to the ILL 23Similar
Q2 0:25
2ND & 12
OPP 23
+20
63.9%
Ben Bryant pass complete to Cam Johnson for 20 yds to the ILL 3 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:08
1ST & GOAL
OPP 3
0
47.4%
Anthony Tyus III run for 3 yards to the ILL 0. Fumble by Anthony Tyus III. Fumble Recovered by Dom D'Antonio at ILL 0 (Jack Olsen Kick)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ILLDrive 12END OF HALF
2 plays · -1 yds · 0:0056% → 56%
Q2 0:00
1ST & 10
OWN 24
-1
55.5%
J. Paddock takes a kneeSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NUDrive 13TD
10 plays · 89 yds · 4:0446% → 65%
Q3 14:56
1ST & 10
OWN 11
+2
54.1%
Cam Porter run for 2 yds to the NU 13Similar
Q3 14:56
2ND & 8
OWN 13
+14
54.4%
Ben Bryant pass complete to Cam Johnson for 14 yds to the NU 27 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 14:56
1ST & 10
OWN 27
+7
53.7%
Cam Porter run for 7 yds to the NU 34Similar
Q3 14:56
2ND & 3
OWN 34
+5
52.4%
Cam Porter run for 5 yds to the NU 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 14:56
1ST & 10
OWN 39
+9
52.1%
Ben Bryant pass complete to Cam Johnson for 9 yds to the NU 48Similar
Q3 14:56
2ND & 1
OWN 48
+42
51.2%
Ben Bryant pass complete to Cam Johnson for 42 yds to the ILL 10 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 14:56
1ST & GOAL
OPP 10
0
49.9%
Joseph Himon II run for no gain to the ILL 10Similar
Q3 14:56
2ND & GOAL
OPP 10
+5
49.9%
Ben Bryant pass complete to Marshall Lang for 5 yds to the ILL 5Similar
Q3 10:52
3RD & GOAL
OPP 5
+5
34.7%
Ben Bryant pass complete to A.J. Henning for 5 yds for a TD (Jack Olsen KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ILLDrive 14FG
11 plays · 49 yds · 4:5139% → 46%
Q3 10:48
1ST & 10
OWN 29
0
39.0%
Reggie Love III run for no gain to the ILL 29Similar
Q3 10:48
2ND & 10
OWN 29
+8
38.5%
John Paddock pass complete to Isaiah Williams for 8 yds to the ILL 37Similar
Q3 10:48
3RD & 2
OWN 37
+4
39.9%
John Paddock pass complete to Casey Washington for 4 yds to the ILL 41 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 10:48
1ST & 10
OWN 41
+19
41.0%
John Paddock pass complete to Isaiah Williams for 19 yds to the NU 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 10:48
1ST & 10
OPP 40
+3
42.6%
Reggie Love III run for 3 yds to the NU 37Similar
Q3 10:48
2ND & 7
OPP 37
+8
42.6%
John Paddock pass complete to Isaiah Williams for 8 yds to the NU 29 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 10:48
1ST & 10
OPP 29
+4
44.1%
Reggie Love III run for 4 yds to the NU 25Similar
Q3 10:48
2ND & 6
OPP 25
+3
44.1%
Reggie Love III run for 3 yds to the NU 22Similar
Q3 10:48
3RD & 3
OPP 22
0
42.4%
Reggie Love III run for no gain to the NU 22Similar
Q3 5:57
4TH & 3
OPP 22
+40
45.7%
Caleb Griffin 40 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NUDrive 15MISSED FG
12 plays · 48 yds · 4:5258% → 64%
Q3 5:57
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+2
41.6%
Cam Porter run for 2 yds to the NU 27Similar
Q3 5:57
2ND & 8
OWN 27
+14
41.3%
Ben Bryant pass complete to A.J. Henning for 14 yds to the NU 41 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 5:57
1ST & 10
OWN 41
+3
39.0%
Ben Bryant run for 3 yds to the NU 44Similar
Q3 5:57
2ND & 7
OWN 44
+5
39.0%
Cam Porter run for 5 yds to the NU 49Similar
Q3 5:57
3RD & 2
OWN 49
+3
39.0%
Cam Porter run for 3 yds to the ILL 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 5:57
1ST & 10
OPP 48
+4
38.3%
Anthony Tyus III run for 4 yds to the ILL 44Similar
Q3 5:57
2ND & 6
OPP 44
+10
38.2%
Ben Bryant pass complete to Bryce Kirtz for 10 yds to the ILL 34 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 5:57
1ST & 10
OPP 34
0
37.1%
Ben Bryant pass incomplete to Anthony Tyus IIISimilar
Q3 5:57
2ND & 10
OPP 34
+7
37.2%
Ben Bryant pass complete to Cam Porter for 7 yds to the ILL 27Similar
Q3 5:57
3RD & 3
OPP 27
0
38.3%
Cam Porter run for no gain to the ILL 27Similar
Q3 1:05
4TH & 3
OPP 27
+45
36.2%
Jack Olsen 45 yd FG MISSEDSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ILLDrive 16TD
7 plays · 73 yds · 2:5342% → 73%
Q3 1:05
1ST & 10
OWN 27
+13
41.8%
Reggie Love III run for 13 yds to the ILL 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 1:05
1ST & 10
OWN 40
+16
44.5%
John Paddock pass complete to Casey Washington for 16 yds to the NU 44 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 0:00
1ST & 10
OPP 44
+2
45.3%
Reggie Love III run for 2 yds to the NU 42Similar
Q4 15:00
2ND & 8
OPP 42
+22
45.2%
John Paddock pass complete to Casey Washington for 22 yds to the NU 20 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 20
+5
47.2%
John Paddock pass complete to Casey Washington for 5 yds to the NU 25Similar
Q4 15:00
2ND & 15
OPP 25
+11
44.7%
Reggie Love III run for 11 yds to the NU 14Similar
Q4 13:12
3RD & 4
OPP 14
+14
73.4%
Pat Bryant 14 Yd pass from Isaiah Williams (John Paddock Pass to Tip Reiman for Two-Point Conversion)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NUDrive 17PUNT
5 plays · 8 yds · 1:4732% → 31%
Q4 13:06
1ST & 10
OWN 23
+6
67.6%
Ben Bryant pass complete to Thomas Gordon for 6 yds to the NU 29Similar
Q4 13:06
2ND & 4
OWN 29
+3
66.0%
Joseph Himon II run for 3 yds to the NU 32Similar
Q4 13:06
3RD & 1
OWN 32
+1
66.6%
A.J. Henning run for 1 yd to the NU 31Similar
Q4 11:19
4TH & 2
OWN 31
0
69.4%
Hunter Renner punt for 45 ydsSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NUDrive 18TD
4 plays · 18 yds · 1:1540% → 72%
Q4 11:19
1ST & 10
OPP 18
+3
60.4%
Ben Bryant pass complete to Thomas Gordon for 3 yds to the ILL 15Similar
Q4 11:19
2ND & 7
OPP 15
0
60.4%
Ben Bryant pass incomplete to Cam JohnsonSimilar
Q4 11:19
3RD & 7
OPP 15
+7
62.4%
Ben Bryant pass complete to Bryce Kirtz for 7 yds to the ILL 8 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 10:04
1ST & GOAL
OPP 8
+8
28.3%
Ben Bryant run for 8 yds for a TD (Jack Olsen KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ILLDrive 19TD
10 plays · 81 yds · 2:3817% → 37%
Q4 9:55
1ST & 10
OWN 35
+17
16.8%
Garner Wallace 17 Yd Fumble Return (Jack Olsen Kick)Similar
Q4 9:55
1ST & 10
OWN 19
+5
16.1%
John Paddock pass complete to Tip Reiman for 5 yds to the ILL 24Similar
Q4 9:55
2ND & 5
OWN 24
+73
16.5%
John Paddock pass complete to Casey Washington for 73 yds to the NU 3 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 9:55
1ST & GOAL
OPP 3
+4
21.1%
John Paddock run for 4 yds to the NU 7Similar
Q4 9:55
2ND & GOAL
OPP 7
+5
21.1%
No Huddle-Shotgun Paddock,John pass incomplete short left to Washington,Casey PENALTY NOR Pass Interference (Johnson,Theran) 5 yards from NOR07 to NOR02, 1ST DOWN. NO PLAY.Similar
Q4 9:55
1ST & GOAL
OPP 2
+1
21.1%
Reggie Love III run for 1 yd to the NU 1Similar
Q4 9:55
2ND & GOAL
OPP 1
0
21.1%
John Paddock pass incomplete to Casey WashingtonSimilar
Q4 9:55
3RD & GOAL
OPP 1
0
19.8%
John Paddock pass incomplete to Isaiah WilliamsSimilar
Q4 7:17
4TH & GOAL
OPP 1
+1
36.8%
John Paddock pass complete to Casey Washington for 1 yd for a TD (Two-Point Conversion failed)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NUDrive 20INT
4 plays · 29 yds · 1:0474% → 79%
Q4 7:17
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+8
25.6%
Ben Bryant pass complete to Charlie Mangieri for 8 yds to the NU 33Similar
Q4 7:17
2ND & 2
OWN 33
+21
24.4%
Cam Porter run for 21 yds to the ILL 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 6:13
1ST & 10
OPP 46
0
21.4%
Ben Bryant pass interceptedSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ILLDrive 21INT
4 plays · 14 yds · 1:1331% → 27%
Q4 6:13
1ST & 10
OWN 7
+10
30.6%
Reggie Love III run for 10 yds to the ILL 17 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 6:13
1ST & 10
OWN 17
+4
31.4%
Reggie Love III run for 4 yds to the ILL 21Similar
Q4 6:13
2ND & 6
OWN 21
0
31.0%
John Paddock pass incomplete to Casey WashingtonSimilar
Q4 5:00
3RD & 6
OWN 21
0
27.3%
John Paddock pass interceptedSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NUDrive 22FG
4 plays · -2 yds · 2:0484% → 92%
Q4 5:00
1ST & 10
OPP 26
+1
15.7%
Cam Porter run for 1 yd to the ILL 25Similar
Q4 5:00
2ND & 9
OPP 25
-7
16.0%
Ben Bryant sacked by Jer'Zhan Newton for a loss of 7 yards to the ILL 32Similar
Q4 5:00
3RD & 16
OPP 32
+4
18.5%
Cam Porter run for 4 yds to the ILL 28Similar
Q4 2:56
4TH & 12
OPP 28
+46
8.2%
Jack Olsen 46 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ILLDrive 23DOWNS
6 plays · -1 yds · 0:3514% → 9%
Q4 2:55
1ST & 10
OWN 33
0
13.5%
John Paddock pass incomplete to Reggie Love IIISimilar
Q4 2:55
2ND & 10
OWN 33
+7
13.4%
John Paddock pass complete to Isaiah Williams for 7 yds to the ILL 40Similar
Q4 2:55
3RD & 3
OWN 40
0
15.0%
John Paddock pass incomplete to Isaiah WilliamsSimilar
Q4 2:20
4TH & 3
OWN 40
-8
8.9%
John Paddock sacked by Anto Saka for a loss of 8 yards to the ILL 32Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NUDrive 24PUNT
7 plays · -3 yds · 1:0695% → 96%
Q4 2:20
1ST & 10
OPP 32
+1
4.9%
Cam Porter run for 1 yd to the ILL 31Similar
Q4 2:15
2ND & 9
OPP 31
+1
4.4%
Cam Porter run for 1 yd to the ILL 30Similar
Q4 2:11
3RD & 8
OPP 30
0
4.2%
Cam Porter run for no gain to the ILL 30Similar
Q4 2:11
4TH & 8
OPP 30
-5
5.1%
PENALTY NOR Delay Of Game 5 yards from ILL30 to ILL35. NO PLAY.Similar
Q4 1:14
4TH & 13
OPP 35
0
4.2%
Hunter Renner punt for 35 yds for a touchbackSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ILLDrive 25TD
6 plays · 80 yds · 0:194% → 29%
Q4 1:14
1ST & 10
OWN 20
0
4.3%
John Paddock pass incomplete to Ashton HollinsSimilar
Q4 0:55
2ND & 10
OWN 20
+80
24.9%
John Paddock pass complete to Casey Washington for 80 yds for a TDSimilar
Q4 0:55
1ST & 10
OWN 35
+5
29.0%
Griffin,Caleb kickoff 0 yards to the ILL35 PENALTY NOR Offside (Gordon,Thomas) 5 yards from ILL35 to ILL40. NO PLAY.Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NUDrive 26END OF GAME
3 plays · -4 yds · 0:5386% → 94%
Q4 0:53
1ST & 10
OWN 49
-2
13.9%
B. Bryant takes a kneeSimilar
Q4 0:00
2ND & 12
OWN 47
-2
6.0%
B. Bryant takes a kneeSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
TD · Q4 10:04
Ben Bryant run for 8 yds for a TD (Jack Olsen KICK)
-34.1
TD · Q4 13:12
Pat Bryant 14 Yd pass from Isaiah Williams (John Paddock Pass to Tip Reiman for Two-Point Conversion)
+28.7
TD · Q4 0:55
John Paddock pass complete to Casey Washington for 80 yds for a TD
+20.6
YardLine · model v10Model estimate - not betting advice · Data provided by CollegeFootballData.com