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ALA

Alabama 27 at Auburn 24

AUB
2023 · Week 13 · Nov 25, 2023 · Jordan-Hare Stadium
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Win probability · AUB
modelAUB aheadALA aheadconfidence bandkey playAUB scoreALA score
0%25%50%75%100%Q1Q2Q3Q4TDTDFGTDTDFGTDFGTDEnd of Game
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q4 9:06 · James Burnip punt for 58 yds
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Pregame priorHome team on offenseGarbage-time factorScore diff ÷ offense timeoutsScore differentialBlowout margin
+33.0+16.50−16.5−33.0Q1Q2Q3Q4Play 130Pregame prior−5.9Home team on offense+5.5Garbage-time factor+0.1Score diff ÷ offense timeouts−1.5Score differential+1.1Blowout margin+1.0
This game in five plays
  1. TD · Q2 2:24: Ja'Varrius Johnson run for 12 yds for a TD (Alex McPherson KICK) — AUB win probability +14.0 pts (now 42%) (top driver: AUB has the ball).
  2. TD · Q2 1:33: Jalen Milroe pass complete to Jermaine Burton for 68 yds for a TD (Will Reichard KICK) — ALA win probability +11.9 pts (now 73%) (top driver: ALA has the ball).
  3. TD · Q3 6:36: Payton Thorne pass complete to Ja'Varrius Johnson for 27 yds for a TD (Alex McPherson KICK) — AUB win probability +20.2 pts (now 51%) (top driver: AUB has the ball).
  4. FG · Q4 10:15: Alex McPherson 21 yd FG GOOD — AUB win probability +8.8 pts (now 66%) (top driver: AUB has the ball).
  5. TD · Q4 0:32: Jalen Milroe pass complete to Isaiah Bond for 31 yds for a TD (Will Reichard KICK) — ALA win probability +84.1 pts (now 92%) (top driver: ALA has the ball).
Was that the right call?

Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works

Fourth downs
AUB made the numbers' call on 5 of 6ALA made the numbers' call on 7 of 9
  1. Q1 14:23AUB 4th & 19 at AUB 15, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 19.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    18.8%−0.2
    10% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    19.0%
    average punt
  2. Q1 9:21AUB 4th & 5 at AUB 9, down 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 19.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    19.9%−<0.1
    39% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    19.9%
    average punt
  3. Q1 7:14ALA 4th & 11 at midfield, up 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 79.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    79.5%−0.2
    26% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    79.7%
    average punt
  4. Q2 14:09ALA 4th & 11 at AUB 14, tied
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 73.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    72.9%−0.6
    23% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    73.5%
    84% to make
    Punt
    71.0%−2.5
    average punt
  5. Q2 7:36AUB 4th & 19 at ALA 46, down 3
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 26.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    25.6%−1.4
    11% to convert
    Field goal
    26.0%−1.0
    23% to make
    PuntTheir call
    27.0%
    average punt
  6. Q2 3:32ALA 4th & 5 at ALA 30, up 3
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 69.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    69.4%−0.5
    41% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    69.9%
    average punt
  7. Q2 0:50AUB 4th & 7 at AUB 24, down 3
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 28.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    26.5%−2.1
    35% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    28.5%
    average punt
  8. Q2 0:17ALA 4th & 7 at ALA 28, up 3
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 69.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    67.6%−1.5
    36% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    69.0%
    average punt
  9. Q3 9:12ALA 4th & 4 at AUB 4, up 3
    Close callKicked a field goal · 69.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    69.8%
    40% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    69.0%−0.9
    93% to make
    Punt
    59.5%−10.3
    average punt
  10. Q3 3:33ALA 4th & 12 at AUB 24, down 1
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 51.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    48.5%−3.0
    22% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    51.4%
    68% to make
    Punt
    39.5%−11.9
    average punt
  11. Q4 10:15AUB 4th & 4 at ALA 4, up 1
    Numbers favored go for it by 1.8 ptsKicked a field goal · 57.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    57.8%
    40% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    56.1%−1.8
    93% to make
    Punt
    39.4%−18.4
    average punt
  12. Q4 9:06ALA 4th & 10 at ALA 25, down 4
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 34.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    31.5%−2.9
    28% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    34.4%
    average punt
  13. Q4 6:19AUB 4th & 15 at AUB 30, up 4
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 71.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    64.6%−7.4
    16% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    72.0%
    average punt
  14. Q4 4:48ALA 4th & 3 at ALA 25, down 4
    Numbers favored go for it by 4.1 ptsPunted · 28.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    24.7%
    51% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    20.6%−4.1
    average punt
  15. Q4 4:48ALA 4th & 1 at AUB 10, down 4
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 36.3% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    34.7%
    71% to convert
    Field goal
    33.8%−1.0
    88% to make
    Punt
    15.0%−19.7
    average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
AUB made the numbers' call on 3 of 3ALA made the numbers' call on 3 of 3
  1. Q1 10:53ALA Touchdown, up 6 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    79.8%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    79.8%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  2. Q1 5:00AUB Touchdown, down 1 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    24.0%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    24.0%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  3. Q2 2:24AUB Touchdown, up 3 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    39.6%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    39.4%−0.1
    45% to convert
  4. Q2 1:33ALA Touchdown, up 2 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    70.5%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    70.3%−0.1
    45% to convert
  5. Q3 6:36AUB Touchdown, tied before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    41.7%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    41.5%−0.2
    45% to convert
  6. Q4 0:32ALA Touchdown, up 2 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    77.3%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    74.8%−2.4
    45% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chart
AUBDrive 1PUNT
5 plays · -9 yds · 0:3217% → 17%
Q1 14:55
1ST & 10
OWN 24
0
17.2%
Payton Thorne pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 14:55
2ND & 10
OWN 24
0
17.2%
Payton Thorne pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 14:55
3RD & 10
OWN 24
-5
17.2%
Auburn Penalty, False Start (-5 Yards) to the AUB 19Similar
Q1 14:55
3RD & 15
OWN 19
-5
17.2%
Auburn Penalty, turnover on downs. PENALTY Illegal Forward Pass on THORNE, Payton enforced (-5 Yards) to the AUB 15Similar
Q1 14:23
4TH & 19
OWN 15
0
17.4%
Oscar Chapman punt for 54 yds, downed at the ALA 31Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ALADrive 2TD
8 plays · 69 yds · 3:3083% → 82%
Q1 14:23
1ST & 10
OWN 31
+11
17.4%
Jase McClellan run for 11 yds to the ALA 42 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 14:23
1ST & 10
OWN 42
+10
17.4%
Jalen Milroe pass complete to Jermaine Burton for 10 yds to the AUB 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 14:23
1ST & 10
OPP 48
-15
17.4%
Alabama Penalty, Personal Foul (-15 Yards) to the ALA 43Similar
Q1 14:23
2ND & 19
OWN 43
+2
17.4%
Jalen Milroe pass complete to Kendrick Law for 2 yds to the ALA 45Similar
Q1 14:23
3RD & 17
OWN 45
+33
17.4%
Jalen Milroe pass complete to Malik Benson for 33 yds to the AUB 22 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 14:23
1ST & 10
OPP 22
+11
17.4%
Jalen Milroe pass complete to Jermaine Burton for 11 yds to the AUB 11 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 14:23
1ST & 10
OPP 11
+9
17.4%
Roydell Williams run for 9 yds to the AUB 2Similar
Q1 10:53
2ND & 1
OPP 2
+2
17.9%
Roydell Williams run for 2 yds for a TD (Will Reichard KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
AUBDrive 3PUNT
4 plays · 5 yds · 1:2618% → 18%
Q1 10:47
1ST & 10
OWN 4
+4
18.2%
Jarquez Hunter run for 4 yds to the AUB 8Similar
Q1 10:47
2ND & 6
OWN 8
+1
18.2%
Jarquez Hunter run for 1 yd to the AUB 9Similar
Q1 10:47
3RD & 5
OWN 9
0
18.1%
Payton Thorne pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 9:21
4TH & 5
OWN 9
0
18.4%
Oscar Chapman punt for 40 ydsSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ALADrive 4PUNT
5 plays · -1 yds · 2:0782% → 81%
Q1 9:21
1ST & 10
OPP 49
+1
18.2%
Jase McClellan run for 1 yd to the AUB 48Similar
Q1 9:21
2ND & 9
OPP 48
+6
18.3%
Jalen Milroe run for 6 yds to the AUB 42Similar
Q1 9:21
3RD & 3
OPP 42
+2
18.3%
Jase McClellan run for 2 yds to the AUB 40Similar
Q1 7:21
4TH & 1
OPP 40
-10
18.7%
LAW, Kendrick rush to the left for a gain of 40 yards to the AU0, TOUCHDOWN ALA, score nullified by penalty, clock 07:21 (Play was confirmed after review). PENALTY ALA Holding on DIPPRE, CJ enforced 10 yards from the AU40 to the ALA50. NO PLAY (replay the down).Similar
Q1 7:14
4TH & 11
50
0
19.0%
James Burnip punt for 18 ydsSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
AUBDrive 5TD
5 plays · 68 yds · 2:1419% → 23%
Q1 7:14
1ST & 10
OWN 32
+11
19.2%
Jarquez Hunter run for 11 yds to the AUB 43 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 7:14
1ST & 10
OWN 43
+42
19.5%
Jarquez Hunter run for 42 yds to the ALA 15 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 7:14
1ST & 10
OPP 15
+9
19.9%
Damari Alston run for 9 yds to the ALA 6Similar
Q1 7:14
2ND & 1
OPP 6
+2
19.9%
Damari Alston run for 2 yds to the ALA 4 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 5:00
1ST & GOAL
OPP 4
+4
23.2%
Damari Alston run for 4 yds for a TD (Alex McPherson KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ALADrive 6FG
13 plays · 56 yds · 5:5178% → 76%
Q1 5:00
1ST & 10
OWN 30
+16
22.0%
Jalen Milroe pass complete to Isaiah Bond for 16 yds to the ALA 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 3:38
1ST & 10
OWN 46
+18
22.3%
Jalen Milroe pass complete to Jermaine Burton for 18 yds to the AUB 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 3:38
1ST & 10
OPP 36
+4
22.2%
Jalen Milroe pass complete to Kendrick Law for 4 yds to the AUB 32Similar
Q1 3:38
2ND & 6
OPP 32
+5
21.9%
Jam Miller run for 5 yds to the AUB 27Similar
Q1 3:38
3RD & 1
OPP 27
+2
22.2%
Jam Miller run for 2 yds to the AUB 25 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 3:38
1ST & 10
OPP 25
0
21.9%
Jalen Milroe pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 3:38
2ND & 10
OPP 25
+7
22.0%
Jase McClellan run for 7 yds to the AUB 18Similar
Q1 3:38
3RD & 3
OPP 18
+5
22.2%
Jalen Milroe run for 5 yds to the AUB 13 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 0:00
1ST & 10
OPP 13
+5
23.3%
Jase McClellan run for 5 yds to the AUB 8Similar
Q2 15:00
2ND & 5
OPP 8
-2
23.3%
Jalen Milroe run for a loss of 2 yards to the AUB 10Similar
Q2 15:00
3RD & 7
OPP 10
-5
23.7%
Alabama penalty Illegal Forward Pass on MILROE, Jalen enforced (-5 Yards) to the AUB 14Similar
Q2 14:09
4TH & 11
OPP 14
+32
23.7%
Will Reichard 32 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
AUBDrive 7PUNT
13 plays · 29 yds · 6:3324% → 25%
Q2 14:09
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+2
24.4%
Jarquez Hunter run for 2 yds to the AUB 27Similar
Q2 14:09
2ND & 8
OWN 27
0
24.5%
Payton Thorne pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 14:09
3RD & 8
OWN 27
+15
23.8%
Payton Thorne pass complete to Caleb Burton III for 15 yds to the AUB 42 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 12:13
1ST & 10
OWN 42
+4
25.7%
Payton Thorne run for 4 yds to the AUB 46Similar
Q2 12:13
2ND & 6
OWN 46
+1
25.9%
Jarquez Hunter run for 1 yd to the AUB 47Similar
Q2 12:13
3RD & 5
OWN 47
+5
25.5%
Payton Thorne pass complete to Ja'Varrius Johnson for 5 yds to the ALA 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 12:13
1ST & 10
OPP 48
+6
26.1%
Jarquez Hunter run for 6 yds to the ALA 42Similar
Q2 12:13
2ND & 4
OPP 42
+5
26.2%
Jarquez Hunter run for 5 yds to the ALA 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 12:13
1ST & 10
OPP 37
-6
26.2%
Damari Alston run for a loss of 6 yards to the ALA 43Similar
Q2 12:13
2ND & 16
OPP 43
-5
25.2%
Payton Thorne sacked by Justin Eboigbe for a loss of 5 yards to the ALA 48Similar
Q2 12:13
3RD & 21
OPP 48
+2
24.5%
Jarquez Hunter run for 2 yds to the ALA 46Similar
Q2 7:36
4TH & 19
OPP 46
0
24.9%
Oscar Chapman punt for 45 yds, downed at the ALA 1Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ALADrive 8PUNT
9 plays · 29 yds · 4:0474% → 71%
Q2 7:36
1ST & 10
OWN 1
+1
25.9%
Jalen Milroe run for 1 yd to the ALA 2Similar
Q2 7:36
2ND & 9
OWN 2
+3
26.1%
Jase McClellan run for 3 yds to the ALA 5Similar
Q2 7:36
3RD & 6
OWN 5
+6
26.7%
Jalen Milroe pass complete to Amari Niblack for 6 yds to the ALA 11 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 7:36
1ST & 10
OWN 11
+5
25.7%
Jase McClellan run for 5 yds to the ALA 16Similar
Q2 7:36
2ND & 5
OWN 16
+9
25.7%
Jalen Milroe run for 9 yds to the ALA 25 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 7:36
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+5
25.5%
Jase McClellan run for 5 yds to the ALA 30Similar
Q2 7:36
2ND & 5
OWN 30
0
25.0%
Jalen Milroe pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 7:36
3RD & 5
OWN 30
0
25.7%
Jalen Milroe pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 3:32
4TH & 5
OWN 30
0
28.8%
James Burnip punt for 48 yds , Keionte Scott returns for no gain to the AUB 17Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
AUBDrive 9TD
3 plays · 88 yds · 1:0827% → 42%
Q2 3:32
1ST & 10
OWN 12
+8
27.2%
Damari Alston run for 8 yds to the AUB 20Similar
Q2 3:32
2ND & 2
OWN 20
+56
27.6%
Damari Alston run for 56 yds to the ALA 24 for a 1ST down Alabama Penalty, Face mask (0 yards) (Jaylen Key) to the ALA 12 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 2:24
1ST & 10
OPP 12
+12
41.6%
Ja'Varrius Johnson run for 12 yds for a TD (Alex McPherson KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ALADrive 10TD
3 plays · 81 yds · 0:4461% → 73%
Q2 2:17
1ST & 10
OWN 19
+5
39.2%
Jase McClellan run for 5 yds to the ALA 24Similar
Q2 2:17
2ND & 5
OWN 24
+8
38.8%
Jalen Milroe pass complete to Jase McClellan for 8 yds to the ALA 32 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 1:33
1ST & 10
OWN 32
+68
26.9%
Jalen Milroe pass complete to Jermaine Burton for 68 yds for a TD (Will Reichard KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
AUBDrive 11PUNT
5 plays · 3 yds · 0:3828% → 28%
Q2 1:28
1ST & 10
OWN 21
+6
28.0%
Jarquez Hunter run for 6 yds to the AUB 27Similar
Q2 1:28
2ND & 4
OWN 27
0
28.6%
Payton Thorne pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 0:59
3RD & 4
OWN 27
-3
28.9%
Payton Thorne sacked by Deontae Lawson for a loss of 3 yards to the AUB 24Similar
Q2 0:50
4TH & 7
OWN 24
0
28.0%
Oscar Chapman punt for 48 ydsSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ALADrive 12PUNT
6 plays · 3 yds · 0:3372% → 70%
Q2 0:50
1ST & 10
OWN 25
0
28.5%
Jalen Milroe pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 0:33
2ND & 10
OWN 25
+5
29.1%
Roydell Williams run for 5 yds to the ALA 30Similar
Q2 0:33
3RD & 5
OWN 30
+3
28.4%
Jalen Milroe run for 3 yds to the ALA 33Similar
Q2 0:33
4TH & 2
OWN 33
-5
28.7%
Alabama Penalty, Delay Of Game (James Burnip) to the ALA 28Similar
Q2 0:17
4TH & 7
OWN 28
0
30.2%
James Burnip punt for 42 yds, fair catch by Keionte Scott at the AUB 30Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
AUBDrive 13INT
5 plays · 19 yds · 0:1130% → 30%
Q2 0:11
1ST & 10
OWN 30
+19
29.9%
Payton Thorne run for 19 yds to the AUB 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:11
1ST & 10
OWN 49
0
32.4%
Payton Thorne pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 0:11
2ND & 10
OWN 49
0
32.0%
Payton Thorne pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 0:00
3RD & 10
OWN 49
0
30.0%
Payton Thorne pass intercepted Terrion Arnold return for no gain to the ALA 1Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ALADrive 14FG
12 plays · 71 yds · 5:4872% → 77%
Q3 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+18
28.2%
Jalen Milroe pass complete to Amari Niblack for 18 yds to the ALA 43 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 43
+10
26.5%
Jase McClellan run for 10 yds to the AUB 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 47
+6
26.1%
Jalen Milroe pass complete to Kendrick Law for 6 yds to the AUB 41Similar
Q3 15:00
2ND & 4
OPP 41
+1
25.8%
Jase McClellan run for 1 yd to the AUB 40Similar
Q3 15:00
3RD & 3
OPP 40
+14
26.2%
Jalen Milroe run for 14 yds to the AUB 26 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 26
+9
25.2%
Jalen Milroe pass complete to Isaiah Bond for 9 yds to the AUB 17Similar
Q3 15:00
2ND & 1
OPP 17
-2
25.2%
Roydell Williams run for a loss of 2 yards to the AUB 19Similar
Q3 15:00
3RD & 3
OPP 19
+11
26.1%
Roydell Williams run for 11 yds to the AUB 8 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 15:00
1ST & GOAL
OPP 8
+3
25.2%
Roydell Williams run for 3 yds to the AUB 5Similar
Q3 15:00
2ND & GOAL
OPP 5
+1
25.2%
Jalen Milroe run for 1 yd to the AUB 4Similar
Q3 15:00
3RD & GOAL
OPP 4
0
26.1%
Jalen Milroe pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 9:12
4TH & GOAL
OPP 4
+22
23.0%
Will Reichard 22 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
AUBDrive 15TD
6 plays · 75 yds · 2:3627% → 51%
Q3 9:12
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+2
27.0%
Payton Thorne run for 2 yds to the AUB 27Similar
Q3 9:12
2ND & 8
OWN 27
+5
27.1%
Jarquez Hunter run for 5 yds to the AUB 32Similar
Q3 9:12
3RD & 3
OWN 32
+37
26.6%
Payton Thorne pass complete to Ja'Varrius Johnson for 37 yds to the ALA 31 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 6:42
1ST & 10
OPP 31
+4
30.6%
Robby Ashford run for 4 yds to the ALA 27Similar
Q3 6:36
2ND & 6
OPP 27
+27
50.8%
Payton Thorne pass complete to Ja'Varrius Johnson for 27 yds for a TD (Alex McPherson KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ALADrive 16MISSED FG
7 plays · 51 yds · 3:0356% → 54%
Q3 6:36
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+37
44.2%
Jalen Milroe run for 37 yds to the AUB 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 6:36
1ST & 10
OPP 38
+16
39.7%
Jalen Milroe pass complete to Isaiah Bond for 16 yds to the AUB 22 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 6:36
1ST & 10
OPP 22
+4
37.8%
Jalen Milroe run for 4 yds to the AUB 18Similar
Q3 6:36
2ND & 6
OPP 18
+3
37.8%
Jase McClellan run for 3 yds to the AUB 15Similar
Q3 6:36
3RD & 3
OPP 15
-15
39.4%
Alabama Penalty, Personal Foul (-15 Yards) to the AUB 24Similar
Q3 6:36
3RD & 12
OPP 24
0
41.0%
Jalen Milroe pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 3:33
4TH & 12
OPP 24
+42
46.5%
Will Reichard 42 yd FG MISSEDSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
AUBDrive 17FG
17 plays · 72 yds · 8:1848% → 66%
Q3 3:33
1ST & 10
OWN 24
+3
47.5%
Damari Alston run for 3 yds to the AUB 27Similar
Q3 3:33
2ND & 7
OWN 27
+14
47.5%
Payton Thorne run for 14 yds to the AUB 41 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 3:33
1ST & 10
OWN 41
+7
50.5%
Payton Thorne pass complete to Ja'Varrius Johnson for 7 yds to the AUB 48Similar
Q3 3:33
2ND & 3
OWN 48
+4
51.8%
Damari Alston run for 4 yds to the ALA 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 3:33
1ST & 10
OPP 48
+3
52.4%
Payton Thorne run for 3 yds to the ALA 45Similar
Q3 3:33
2ND & 7
OPP 45
+6
52.2%
Payton Thorne run for 6 yds to the ALA 39Similar
Q3 0:00
3RD & 1
OPP 39
+3
55.0%
Damari Alston run for 3 yds to the ALA 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 36
+4
56.1%
Payton Thorne run for 4 yds to the ALA 32Similar
Q4 15:00
2ND & 6
OPP 32
+2
57.2%
Damari Alston run for 2 yds to the ALA 30Similar
Q4 15:00
3RD & 4
OPP 30
+2
55.4%
Jarquez Hunter pass complete to Robby Ashford for 2 yds to the ALA 28Similar
Q4 13:14
4TH & 2
OPP 28
+5
54.4%
THORNE, Payton pass deep to the left incomplete intended for JOHNSON JR., Malcolm thrown to the ALA2, clock 13:14. PENALTY ALA Offsides on TURNER, Dallas enforced 5 yards from the ALA28 to the ALA23 and results in a 1ST DOWN [NHSG]. NO PLAY (replay the down).Similar
Q4 13:14
1ST & 10
OPP 23
-7
59.0%
Robby Ashford run for a loss of 7 yards to the ALA 30Similar
Q4 13:14
2ND & 17
OPP 30
+22
56.3%
Payton Thorne run for 22 yds to the ALA 8 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 13:14
1ST & GOAL
OPP 8
+3
58.9%
Jarquez Hunter run for 3 yds to the ALA 5Similar
Q4 13:14
2ND & GOAL
OPP 5
0
58.9%
Payton Thorne pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 13:14
3RD & GOAL
OPP 5
+1
57.1%
Jarquez Hunter run for 1 yd to the ALA 4Similar
Q4 10:15
4TH & GOAL
OPP 4
+21
65.8%
Alex McPherson 21 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ALADrive 18PUNT
4 plays · 0 yds · 1:0940% → 35%
Q4 10:15
1ST & 10
OWN 25
0
60.3%
Jalen Milroe run for no gain to the ALA 25Similar
Q4 10:15
2ND & 10
OWN 25
0
60.9%
Jalen Milroe pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 10:15
3RD & 10
OWN 25
0
62.5%
Jalen Milroe pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 9:06
4TH & 10
OWN 25
0
64.6%
James Burnip punt for 58 ydsSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
AUBDrive 19PUNT
6 plays · 8 yds · 2:4766% → 71%
Q4 9:06
1ST & 10
OWN 22
+4
65.5%
Jarquez Hunter run for 4 yds to the AUB 26Similar
Q4 9:06
2ND & 6
OWN 26
+9
65.7%
Payton Thorne run for 9 yds to the AUB 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 9:06
1ST & 10
OWN 35
+1
66.2%
Payton Thorne run for 1 yd to the AUB 36Similar
Q4 9:06
2ND & 9
OWN 36
0
66.5%
Payton Thorne pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 9:06
3RD & 9
OWN 36
-6
65.1%
Payton Thorne sacked by Dallas Turner for a loss of 6 yards to the AUB 30Similar
Q4 6:19
4TH & 15
OWN 30
0
71.2%
Oscar Chapman punt for 52 ydsSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ALADrive 20PUNT
4 plays · 7 yds · 1:3136% → 29%
Q4 6:19
1ST & 10
OWN 18
+3
64.2%
Jalen Milroe pass complete to Isaiah Bond for 3 yds to the ALA 21Similar
Q4 6:19
2ND & 7
OWN 21
+3
64.7%
Jase McClellan run for 3 yds to the ALA 24Similar
Q4 6:19
3RD & 4
OWN 24
+1
65.4%
Jalen Milroe run for 1 yd to the ALA 25Similar
Q4 4:48
4TH & 3
OWN 25
0
70.8%
James Burnip punt for 45 yds , returns for no gain to the AUB 30Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ALADrive 21TD
11 plays · 30 yds · 4:1642% → 92%
Q4 4:48
1ST & 10
OPP 30
+11
58.2%
Jalen Milroe run for 11 yds to the AUB 19 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 4:48
1ST & 10
OPP 19
-1
57.2%
Jase McClellan run for a loss of 1 yard to the AUB 20Similar
Q4 4:48
2ND & 11
OPP 20
-9
58.4%
Jalen Milroe sacked by Marcus Harris for a loss of 9 yards to the AUB 29Similar
Q4 4:48
3RD & 20
OPP 29
+19
65.0%
Jalen Milroe run for 19 yds to the AUB 10Similar
Q4 4:48
4TH & 1
OPP 10
+3
61.6%
Roydell Williams run for 3 yds to the AUB 7 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 1:43
1ST & GOAL
OPP 7
-1
62.3%
Roydell Williams run for a loss of 1 yard to the AUB 8Similar
Q4 1:43
2ND & GOAL
OPP 8
-18
62.3%
run for a loss of 18 yards to the AUB 26Similar
Q4 0:43
3RD & GOAL
OPP 26
-5
71.2%
Alabama Penalty, Illegal Forward Pass on MILROE, Jalen enforced (-5 Yards) to the AUB 31Similar
Q4 0:32
4TH & GOAL
OPP 31
+31
8.2%
Jalen Milroe pass complete to Isaiah Bond for 31 yds for a TD (Will Reichard KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
AUBDrive 22INT
2 plays · -14 yds · 0:2617% → 12%
Q4 0:26
1ST & 10
OWN 15
-14
16.8%
Payton Thorne sacked for a loss of 14 yards to the AUB 1Similar
Q4 0:00
2ND & 24
OWN 1
-22
11.7%
Payton Thorne pass intercepted Terrion Arnold return for 22 yds to the AUB 3Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
TD · Q4 0:32
Jalen Milroe pass complete to Isaiah Bond for 31 yds for a TD (Will Reichard KICK)
-84.1
TD · Q3 6:36
Payton Thorne pass complete to Ja'Varrius Johnson for 27 yds for a TD (Alex McPherson KICK)
+20.2
TD · Q2 2:24
Ja'Varrius Johnson run for 12 yds for a TD (Alex McPherson KICK)
+14
YardLine · model v10Model estimate - not betting advice · Data provided by CollegeFootballData.com