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MIZ

Missouri 48 at Arkansas 14

ARK
2023 · Week 13 · Nov 24, 2023 · Razorback Stadium
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Win probability · ARK
modelARK aheadMIZ aheadconfidence bandkey playARK scoreMIZ score
0%25%50%75%100%Q1Q2Q3Q4TDFGTDFGTDTDTDTDTDTDEnd of GameFG-4.5ARK 8.0%Harrison Mevis 22 yd FG GOODAWAY 20 - HOME 0 · Q2 0:49
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q2 0:49 · Harrison Mevis 22 yd FG GOOD
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Home team on offenseScore differentialPregame priorGarbage-time factorScore diff ÷ offense timeoutsScore diff ÷ seconds remaining
+58.0+29.00−29.0−58.0Q1Q2Q3Q4Play 85Home team on offense−28.1Score differential−11.8Pregame prior−12.1Garbage-time factor−6.1Score diff ÷ offense timeouts−4.0Score diff ÷ seconds remaining−2.2
This game in five plays
  1. FG · Q1 4:45: Harrison Mevis 24 yd FG GOOD — ARK win probability +1.0 pts (now 28%) (top driver: MIZ has the ball).
  2. TD · Q2 5:35: Brady Cook run for 3 yds for a TD (Harrison Mevis KICK) — MIZ win probability +14.4 pts (now 84%) (top driver: MIZ has the ball).
  3. FG · Q2 0:49: Harrison Mevis 22 yd FG GOOD — MIZ win probability +4.5 pts (now 92%) (top driver: MIZ has the ball).
  4. TD · Q3 11:43: Brady Cook pass complete to Brett Norfleet for 16 yds for a TD (Harrison Mevis KICK) — MIZ win probability +6.1 pts (now 97%) (top driver: MIZ has the ball).
  5. TD · Q3 11:32: Brady Cook pass complete to Brett Norfleet for 11 yds for a TD (Harrison Mevis KICK) — MIZ win probability +1.2 pts (now 98%) (top driver: MIZ has the ball).
Was that the right call?

Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works

Fourth downs
ARK made the numbers' call on 6 of 7MIZ made the numbers' call on 6 of 9
  1. Q1 14:05MIZ 4th & 10 at MIZ 37, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 70.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    70.2%−0.1
    29% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    70.3%
    average punt
  2. Q1 12:41ARK 4th & 15 at ARK 29, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 30.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    30.1%−0.1
    16% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    30.3%
    average punt
  3. Q1 12:41MIZ 4th & 1 at ARK 6, tied
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 69.8% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    69.8%
    69% to convert
    Field goal
    69.6%−0.2
    91% to make
    Punt
    69.1%−0.6
    average punt
  4. Q1 4:45MIZ 4th & 1 at ARK 6, up 7
    Close callKicked a field goal · 70.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    70.2%
    69% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    69.4%−0.7
    91% to make
    Punt
    67.5%−2.7
    average punt
  5. Q1 3:41ARK 4th & 7 at ARK 28, down 10
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 28.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    28.6%−0.3
    36% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    28.9%
    average punt
  6. Q1 0:23MIZ 4th & 8 at MIZ 48, up 10
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 70.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    70.5%−0.2
    34% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    70.7%
    average punt
  7. Q2 12:22ARK 4th & 7 at ARK 46, down 10
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 27.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    27.9%−0.1
    37% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    28.0%
    average punt
  8. Q2 9:28MIZ 4th & 7 at MIZ 30, up 10
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 69.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    69.7%−0.2
    36% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    69.9%
    average punt
  9. Q2 8:31ARK 4th & 6 at ARK 31, down 10
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 26.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    26.7%−0.7
    39% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    27.4%
    average punt
  10. Q2 4:15ARK 4th & 15 at ARK 20, down 17
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 19.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    18.1%−1.2
    16% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    19.3%
    average punt
  11. Q2 0:49MIZ 4th & 4 at ARK 4, up 17
    Close callKicked a field goal · 85.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    85.5%
    40% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    85.2%−0.3
    93% to make
    Punt
    79.5%−6.0
    average punt
  12. Q3 9:57ARK 4th & 6 at ARK 29, down 34
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 2.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    2.2%−0.1
    39% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    2.3%
    average punt
  13. Q3 7:16MIZ 4th & 1 at MIZ 47, up 34
    Close callPunted · 97.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    97.9%
    70% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    97.7%−0.3
    average punt
  14. Q4 15:00ARK 4th & 7 at MIZ 28, down 41
    Close callWent for it · 0.5% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    0.5%−<0.1
    37% to convert
    Field goal
    0.5%
    60% to make
    Punt
    0.1%−0.3
    average punt
  15. Q4 10:06MIZ 4th & 7 at MIZ 28, up 34
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 99.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    99.6%−<0.1
    36% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    99.6%
    average punt
  16. Q4 2:37MIZ 4th & 1 at ARK 1, up 27
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 99.8% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    99.8%
    59% to convert
    Field goal
    99.6%−0.2
    94% to make
    Punt
    99.2%−0.6
    average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
ARK made the numbers' call on 1 of 2MIZ made the numbers' call on 5 of 6
  1. Q1 9:12MIZ Touchdown, up 6 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    69.3%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    69.3%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  2. Q2 5:35MIZ Touchdown, up 16 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    79.2%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    79.1%−0.1
    45% to convert
  3. Q3 11:43MIZ Touchdown, up 26 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    98.4%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    98.4%−0.1
    45% to convert
  4. Q3 11:32MIZ Touchdown, up 33 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    97.6%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    97.6%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  5. Q3 5:06MIZ Touchdown, up 40 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    99.3%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    99.3%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  6. Q4 11:35ARK Touchdown, down 35 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    0.5%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    0.5%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  7. Q4 5:48ARK Touchdown, down 28 before the try
    Close callKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    0.3%−<0.1
    97% to make
    Go for two
    0.3%
    45% to convert
  8. Q4 2:37MIZ Touchdown, up 33 before the try
    Close callKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    99.9%−<0.1
    97% to make
    Go for two
    99.9%
    45% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chart
MIZDrive 1PUNT
5 plays · 12 yds · 0:5572% → 72%
Q1 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+12
27.9%
Brady Cook pass complete to Luther Burden III for 12 yds to the MIZ 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 37
0
27.9%
Brady Cook pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 15:00
2ND & 10
OWN 37
0
27.9%
Brady Cook pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 15:00
3RD & 10
OWN 37
0
27.9%
Brady Cook pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 14:05
4TH & 10
OWN 37
0
28.4%
Riley Williams punt for 29 yds, downed at the ARK 34Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ARKDrive 2PUNT
5 plays · -5 yds · 1:2428% → 29%
Q1 14:05
1ST & 10
OWN 34
+1
28.4%
KJ Jefferson pass complete to Isaiah Augustave for 1 yd to the ARK 35Similar
Q1 14:05
2ND & 9
OWN 35
+1
28.4%
KJ Jefferson pass complete to Nathan Bax for 1 yd to the ARK 36Similar
Q1 14:05
3RD & 8
OWN 36
-7
28.3%
KJ Jefferson sacked by Sidney Williams for a loss of 7 yards to the ARK 29Similar
Q1 12:41
4TH & 15
OWN 29
0
28.8%
Max Fletcher punt for 25 ydsSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MIZDrive 3TD
7 plays · 54 yds · 3:2971% → 72%
Q1 12:41
1ST & 10
OWN 46
+3
28.8%
Cody Schrader run for 3 yds to the MIZ 49Similar
Q1 12:41
2ND & 7
OWN 49
+36
28.8%
Cody Schrader run for 36 yds to the ARK 15 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 12:41
1ST & 10
OPP 15
0
28.7%
Cody Schrader run for no gain to the ARK 15Similar
Q1 12:41
2ND & 10
OPP 15
+6
28.7%
Cody Schrader run for 6 yds to the ARK 9Similar
Q1 12:41
3RD & 4
OPP 9
+3
28.7%
Brady Cook run for 3 yds to the ARK 6Similar
Q1 12:41
4TH & 1
OPP 6
+4
28.8%
Brady Cook run for 4 yds to the ARK 2 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 9:12
1ST & GOAL
OPP 2
+2
28.1%
Cody Schrader run for 2 yds for a TD (Harrison Mevis KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ARKDrive 4FUMBLE
2 plays · 22 yds · 0:0028% → 28%
Q1 8:59
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+22
28.2%
KJ Jefferson run for 22 yds to the ARK 47 KJ Jefferson fumbled, recovered by MIZ Darius Robinson [NHSG] QB Keeper JEFFERSON, KJ rush up the middle for a gain of 22 yards, JEFFERSON, KJ fumbled at ARK47 forced by CARNELL, Daylan, recovered by MIZ ROBINSON, Darius at the ARK47, returned 0 yards to the ARK47, End of Play, clock 08:59.Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MIZDrive 5FG
10 plays · 41 yds · 4:1473% → 72%
Q1 8:59
1ST & 10
OPP 47
+5
26.9%
Cody Schrader run for 5 yds to the ARK 42Similar
Q1 8:59
2ND & 5
OPP 42
+4
26.8%
Cody Schrader run for 4 yds to the ARK 38Similar
Q1 8:59
3RD & 1
OPP 38
+5
26.9%
Cody Schrader run for 5 yds to the ARK 33 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 8:59
1ST & 10
OPP 33
+3
26.8%
Cody Schrader run for 3 yds to the ARK 30Similar
Q1 8:59
2ND & 7
OPP 30
0
26.9%
Brady Cook pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 8:59
3RD & 7
OPP 30
+15
27.0%
Brady Cook pass complete to Theo Wease Jr. for 15 yds to the ARK 15 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 8:59
1ST & 10
OPP 15
-1
26.9%
Cody Schrader run for a loss of 1 yard to the ARK 16Similar
Q1 8:59
2ND & 11
OPP 16
+9
26.9%
Brady Cook pass complete to Luther Burden III for 9 yds to the ARK 7Similar
Q1 8:59
3RD & 2
OPP 7
+1
27.0%
Cody Schrader run for 1 yd to the ARK 6Similar
Q1 4:45
4TH & 1
OPP 6
+24
27.9%
Harrison Mevis 24 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ARKDrive 6PUNT
4 plays · 3 yds · 1:0427% → 26%
Q1 4:45
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+1
27.0%
Jacolby Criswell run for 1 yd to the ARK 26Similar
Q1 4:45
2ND & 9
OWN 26
+2
27.0%
Jacolby Criswell pass complete to Isaiah Sategna for 2 yds to the ARK 28Similar
Q1 4:45
3RD & 7
OWN 28
0
26.8%
Jacolby Criswell pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 3:41
4TH & 7
OWN 28
0
26.2%
Max Fletcher punt for 58 yds, downed at the MIZ 14Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MIZDrive 7PUNT
8 plays · 34 yds · 3:1872% → 72%
Q1 3:41
1ST & 10
OWN 14
+4
28.4%
Cody Schrader run for 4 yds to the MIZ 18Similar
Q1 3:41
2ND & 6
OWN 18
+28
28.4%
Brady Cook pass complete to Luther Burden III for 28 yds to the MIZ 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 3:41
1ST & 10
OWN 46
-5
27.6%
Missouri Penalty, False Start (-5 Yards) to the MIZ 41Similar
Q1 3:41
1ST & 15
OWN 41
0
28.1%
Brady Cook pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 3:41
2ND & 15
OWN 41
+1
28.2%
Brady Cook pass complete to Mekhi Miller for 1 yd to the MIZ 42Similar
Q1 3:41
3RD & 14
OWN 42
+5
28.3%
Arkansas Penalty, Offsides (Landon Jackson) to the MIZ 47Similar
Q1 3:41
3RD & 9
OWN 47
+1
27.8%
Brady Cook run for 1 yd to the MIZ 48Similar
Q1 0:23
4TH & 8
OWN 48
0
27.8%
Riley Williams punt for 44 yds, fair catch by Isaiah Sategna at the ARK 8Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ARKDrive 8PUNT
10 plays · 38 yds · 2:3826% → 26%
Q1 0:00
1ST & 10
OWN 8
+3
26.3%
Isaiah Augustave run for 3 yds to the ARK 11Similar
Q2 15:00
2ND & 7
OWN 11
+2
26.1%
Jacolby Criswell pass complete to Isaiah Augustave for 2 yds to the ARK 13Similar
Q2 15:00
3RD & 5
OWN 13
+15
25.8%
CRISWELL, Jacolby pass short to the left incomplete intended for SATEGNA, Isaiah broken up by HICKS, Chuck at the ARK15; QB hurried by HICKS, Chuck. PENALTY MIZ Face mask on WILLIAMS, Sidney enforced 15 yards from the ARK13 to the ARK28 and results in automatic 1ST DOWN [NHSG]. NO PLAY (replay the down).Similar
Q2 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 28
+7
26.3%
Jacolby Criswell run for 7 yds to the ARK 35Similar
Q2 15:00
2ND & 3
OWN 35
+8
26.6%
Jacolby Criswell pass complete to Andrew Armstrong for 8 yds to the ARK 43 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 43
-1
26.8%
Jacolby Criswell run for a loss of 1 yard to the ARK 42Similar
Q2 15:00
2ND & 11
OWN 42
+4
26.6%
Jacolby Criswell pass complete to Nathan Bax for 4 yds to the ARK 46Similar
Q2 15:00
3RD & 7
OWN 46
0
26.5%
Jacolby Criswell pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 12:22
4TH & 7
OWN 46
0
25.5%
Max Fletcher punt for 37 ydsSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MIZDrive 9PUNT
8 plays · 13 yds · 2:5468% → 68%
Q2 12:22
1ST & 10
OWN 17
0
31.9%
Brady Cook pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 12:22
2ND & 10
OWN 17
+8
32.1%
Cody Schrader run for 8 yds to the MIZ 25Similar
Q2 12:22
3RD & 2
OWN 25
+2
31.6%
Brady Cook run for 2 yds to the MIZ 27 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 12:22
1ST & 10
OWN 27
+4
31.6%
Cody Schrader run for 4 yds to the MIZ 31Similar
Q2 12:22
2ND & 6
OWN 31
-1
31.4%
Cody Schrader run for a loss of 1 yard to the MIZ 30Similar
Q2 12:22
3RD & 7
OWN 30
0
31.9%
Brady Cook pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 9:28
4TH & 7
OWN 30
0
31.8%
Riley Williams punt for 42 ydsSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ARKDrive 10PUNT
5 plays · 4 yds · 0:5729% → 28%
Q2 9:28
1ST & 10
OWN 27
+3
28.6%
Jacolby Criswell run for 3 yds to the ARK 30Similar
Q2 9:28
2ND & 7
OWN 30
+1
28.6%
Isaiah Augustave run for 1 yd to the ARK 31Similar
Q2 9:28
3RD & 6
OWN 31
0
28.3%
Jacolby Criswell pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 8:31
4TH & 6
OWN 31
0
28.0%
Max Fletcher punt for 40 yds, fair catch by Luther Burden III at the MIZ 29Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MIZDrive 11TD
7 plays · 71 yds · 2:5668% → 84%
Q2 8:31
1ST & 10
OWN 29
+14
31.6%
Cody Schrader run for 14 yds to the MIZ 43 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 8:31
1ST & 10
OWN 43
+43
30.8%
Cody Schrader run for 43 yds to the ARK 14 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 8:31
1ST & 10
OPP 14
-1
30.1%
Jamal Roberts run for a loss of 1 yard to the ARK 15Similar
Q2 8:31
2ND & 11
OPP 15
-1
30.3%
Cody Schrader run for a loss of 1 yard to the ARK 16Similar
Q2 8:31
1ST & GOAL
OPP 8
+5
30.1%
Cody Schrader run for 5 yds to the ARK 3Similar
Q2 8:31
2ND & GOAL
OPP 3
0
30.1%
PENALTY MIZ Personal Foul on MEMBOU, Armand ARK Personal Foul on GREGORY, Eric ARK Personal Foul on GREGORY, Eric , Offsetting penalties [NHSG]. NO PLAY (replay the down).Similar
Q2 5:35
2ND & GOAL
OPP 3
+3
15.7%
Brady Cook run for 3 yds for a TD (Harrison Mevis KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ARKDrive 12PUNT
5 plays · -5 yds · 1:2016% → 15%
Q2 5:35
1ST & 10
OWN 25
-5
16.3%
Arkansas Penalty, False Start (Devon Manuel) to the ARK 20Similar
Q2 5:35
1ST & 15
OWN 20
0
16.3%
Jacolby Criswell pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 5:35
2ND & 15
OWN 20
+8
16.3%
Dominique Johnson run for 8 yds to the ARK 28Similar
Q2 5:35
3RD & 7
OWN 28
-8
16.1%
Jacolby Criswell sacked by Nyles Gaddy for a loss of 8 yards to the ARK 20Similar
Q2 4:15
4TH & 15
OWN 20
0
15.3%
Max Fletcher punt for 51 yds , Luther Burden III returns for no gain to the MIZ 20 Missouri Penalty, Illegal Block (15 Yards) to the MIZ 27Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MIZDrive 13FG
9 plays · 69 yds · 3:2685% → 92%
Q2 4:15
1ST & 10
OWN 27
+1
15.1%
Cody Schrader run for 1 yd to the MIZ 28Similar
Q2 4:15
2ND & 9
OWN 28
+15
15.2%
Arkansas Penalty, Personal Foul (Antonio Grier) to the MIZ 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 4:15
1ST & 10
OWN 48
+49
14.3%
Cody Schrader run for 49 yds to the ARK 3 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 4:15
1ST & GOAL
OPP 3
+2
15.4%
Cody Schrader run for 2 yds to the ARK 1Similar
Q2 2:19
2ND & GOAL
OPP 1
-5
12.7%
Missouri Penalty, False Start (Javon Foster) to the ARK 6Similar
Q2 2:19
2ND & GOAL
OPP 6
-5
12.1%
Brady Cook pass complete to Luther Burden III for a loss of 5 yards to the ARK 11Similar
Q2 2:19
3RD & GOAL
OPP 11
+7
12.5%
Brady Cook pass complete to Luther Burden III for 7 yds to the ARK 4Similar
Q2 0:49
4TH & GOAL
OPP 4
+22
8.0%
Harrison Mevis 22 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ARKDrive 14END OF HALF
2 plays · 3 yds · 0:4912% → 11%
Q2 0:49
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+3
11.6%
AJ Green run for 3 yds to the ARK 28Similar
Q2 0:00
2ND & 7
OWN 28
-5
11.2%
Arkansas Penalty, False Start (Brady Latham) to the ARK 23Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ARKDrive 15FUMBLE
3 plays · 2 yds · 0:5114% → 16%
Q3 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+8
13.9%
Jacolby Criswell run for 8 yds to the ARK 33Similar
Q3 15:00
2ND & 2
OWN 33
+3
14.4%
Isaiah Augustave run for 3 yds to the ARK 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 14:09
1ST & 10
OWN 36
+6
15.8%
Jacolby Criswell sacked for a loss of 9 yards to the ARK 27 for a 1ST down Missouri Penalty, Unsportsmanlike Conduct (Sidney Williams) to the ARK 15 for a 1ST downSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MIZDrive 16TD
6 plays · 38 yds · 2:2690% → 97%
Q3 14:09
1ST & 10
OPP 38
+1
9.6%
Cody Schrader run for 1 yd to the ARK 37Similar
Q3 14:09
2ND & 9
OPP 37
+4
9.6%
Brady Cook pass complete to Luther Burden III for 4 yds to the ARK 33Similar
Q3 14:09
3RD & 5
OPP 33
+15
9.8%
COOK, Brady pass deep to the left incomplete intended for WEASE, Theo thrown to the ARK9. PENALTY ARK Pass Interference on SINGLETARY, Jaheim enforced 15 yards to the ARK18 and results in automatic 1ST DOWN [NHSG]. NO PLAY (replay the down).Similar
Q3 14:09
1ST & 10
OPP 18
+1
9.3%
Cody Schrader run for 1 yd to the ARK 17Similar
Q3 14:09
2ND & 9
OPP 17
+1
9.3%
Brady Cook run for 1 yd to the ARK 16Similar
Q3 11:43
3RD & 8
OPP 16
+16
3.2%
Brady Cook pass complete to Brett Norfleet for 16 yds for a TD (Harrison Mevis KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MIZDrive 17TD
1 play · 11 yds · 0:0098% → 98%
Q3 11:32
1ST & 10
OPP 11
+11
2.0%
Brady Cook pass complete to Brett Norfleet for 11 yds for a TD (Harrison Mevis KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ARKDrive 18PUNT
5 plays · 4 yds · 1:352% → 1%
Q3 11:32
1ST & 10
OWN 25
0
1.6%
Jacolby Criswell run for no gain to the ARK 25Similar
Q3 11:32
2ND & 10
OWN 25
+4
1.5%
Jacolby Criswell pass complete to Isaiah Augustave for 4 yds to the ARK 29Similar
Q3 11:32
3RD & 6
OWN 29
0
1.5%
Jacolby Criswell pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 9:57
4TH & 6
OWN 29
0
1.1%
Max Fletcher punt for 48 ydsSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MIZDrive 19PUNT
8 plays · 27 yds · 2:4198% → 98%
Q3 9:57
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+9
2.0%
Brady Cook pass complete to Marquis Johnson for 9 yds to the MIZ 29Similar
Q3 9:57
2ND & 1
OWN 29
+9
2.0%
Cody Schrader run for 9 yds to the MIZ 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 9:57
1ST & 10
OWN 38
-5
1.9%
Missouri Penalty, False Start (Xavier Delgado) to the MIZ 33Similar
Q3 9:57
1ST & 15
OWN 33
0
2.0%
Brady Cook pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 9:57
2ND & 15
OWN 33
+12
2.0%
Cody Schrader run for 12 yds to the MIZ 45Similar
Q3 9:57
3RD & 3
OWN 45
+2
2.0%
Cody Schrader run for 2 yds to the MIZ 47Similar
Q3 7:16
4TH & 1
OWN 47
0
1.9%
Riley Williams punt for 37 yds, fair catch by Isaiah Sategna at the ARK 16Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ARKDrive 20FUMBLE RETURN TD
5 plays · -6 yds · 2:101% → 0%
Q3 7:16
1ST & 10
OWN 16
-1
0.8%
AJ Green run for a loss of 1 yard to the ARK 15Similar
Q3 7:16
2ND & 11
OWN 15
-1
0.8%
Jacolby Criswell pass complete to Var'Keyes Gumms for a loss of 1 yard to the ARK 14Similar
Q3 7:16
3RD & 12
OWN 14
+13
0.8%
Jacolby Criswell pass complete to Isaac TeSlaa for 13 yds Isaac TeSlaa fumbled, recovered by ARK Isaac TeSlaa for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 7:16
1ST & 10
OWN 27
+4
0.8%
Jacolby Criswell run for 4 yds to the ARK 31Similar
Q3 5:06
2ND & 6
OWN 31
+10
0.4%
Jayden Jernigan 10 Yd Fumble Return (Harrison Mevis Kick)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ARKDrive 21TD
16 plays · 75 yds · 8:311% → 0%
Q3 5:06
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+5
0.5%
Isaiah Augustave run for 5 yds to the ARK 30Similar
Q3 5:06
2ND & 5
OWN 30
+11
0.4%
Isaiah Augustave run for 11 yds to the ARK 41 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 5:06
1ST & 10
OWN 41
+3
0.5%
Isaiah Augustave run for 3 yds to the ARK 44Similar
Q3 5:06
2ND & 7
OWN 44
+5
0.5%
Jacolby Criswell run for 5 yds to the ARK 49Similar
Q3 5:06
3RD & 2
OWN 49
+1
0.5%
AJ Green run for 1 yd to the 50 yard lineSimilar
Q3 1:35
4TH & 1
50
+5
0.3%
AUGUSTAVE, Isaiah rush up the middle for no gain to the ARK50 (GEORGE JR., Realus;GRACIAL, Marquis), clock 01:35. PENALTY MIZ Offsides on MOORE, Joe enforced 5 yards from the ARK50 to the MIZ45 and results in a 1ST DOWN [NHSG]. NO PLAY (replay the down).Similar
Q3 1:35
1ST & 10
OPP 45
+7
0.3%
Isaiah Augustave run for 7 yds to the MIZ 38Similar
Q3 0:00
2ND & 3
OPP 38
-4
0.3%
Jacolby Criswell run for a loss of 4 yards to the MIZ 42Similar
Q4 15:00
3RD & 7
OPP 42
+11
0.2%
Jacolby Criswell pass complete to AJ Green for 11 yds to the MIZ 31 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 31
0
0.3%
Jacolby Criswell pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 15:00
2ND & 10
OPP 31
-3
0.3%
AJ Green run for a loss of 3 yards to the MIZ 34Similar
Q4 15:00
3RD & 13
OPP 34
+6
0.2%
Isaiah Augustave run for 6 yds to the MIZ 28Similar
Q4 15:00
4TH & 7
OPP 28
+21
0.2%
Jacolby Criswell pass complete to Isaac TeSlaa for 21 yds to the MIZ 7 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 15:00
1ST & GOAL
OPP 7
0
0.4%
Jacolby Criswell pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 15:00
2ND & GOAL
OPP 7
-1
0.3%
Isaiah Augustave run for a loss of 1 yard to the MIZ 8Similar
Q4 11:35
3RD & GOAL
OPP 8
+8
0.2%
Jacolby Criswell pass complete to Andrew Armstrong for 8 yds for a TD (Cam Little KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MIZDrive 22PUNT
5 plays · 3 yds · 1:29100% → 100%
Q4 11:35
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+1
0.3%
Nathaniel Peat run for 1 yd to the MIZ 26Similar
Q4 11:35
2ND & 9
OWN 26
+2
0.3%
Nathaniel Peat run for 2 yds to the MIZ 28Similar
Q4 11:35
3RD & 7
OWN 28
0
0.3%
Sam Horn pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 10:06
4TH & 7
OWN 28
0
0.3%
Luke Bauer punt for 42 yds, fair catch by Isaiah Sategna at the ARK 30Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ARKDrive 23TD
8 plays · 70 yds · 4:180% → 0%
Q4 10:06
1ST & 10
OWN 30
-1
0.1%
Jacolby Criswell run for a loss of 1 yard to the ARK 29Similar
Q4 10:06
2ND & 11
OWN 29
+9
0.1%
Isaiah Augustave run for 9 yds to the ARK 38Similar
Q4 10:06
3RD & 2
OWN 38
+7
0.1%
Isaiah Augustave run for 7 yds to the ARK 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 10:06
1ST & 10
OWN 45
+3
0.1%
Isaiah Augustave run for 3 yds to the ARK 48Similar
Q4 10:06
2ND & 7
OWN 48
+6
0.1%
Jacolby Criswell pass complete to Andrew Armstrong for 6 yds to the MIZ 46Similar
Q4 10:06
3RD & 1
OPP 46
+41
0.1%
Dominique Johnson run for 41 yds to the MIZ 5 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 10:06
1ST & GOAL
OPP 5
-1
0.1%
Dominique Johnson run for a loss of 1 yard to the MIZ 6Similar
Q4 5:48
2ND & GOAL
OPP 6
+6
0.1%
Isaiah Augustave run for 6 yds for a TD (Cam Little KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MIZDrive 24TD
7 plays · 26 yds · 3:07100% → 100%
Q4 5:44
1ST & 10
OPP 26
+7
0.2%
Nathaniel Peat run for 7 yds to the ARK 19Similar
Q4 5:44
2ND & 3
OPP 19
+16
0.2%
Nathaniel Peat run for 16 yds to the ARK 3 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 5:44
1ST & GOAL
OPP 3
+1
0.2%
Nathaniel Peat run for 1 yd to the ARK 2Similar
Q4 5:44
2ND & GOAL
OPP 2
+1
0.2%
Nathaniel Peat run for 1 yd to the ARK 1Similar
Q4 2:42
3RD & GOAL
OPP 1
0
0.1%
Nathaniel Peat run for no gain to the ARK 1Similar
Q4 2:37
4TH & GOAL
OPP 1
+1
0.2%
Nathaniel Peat run for 1 yd for a TD (Harrison Mevis KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ARKDrive 25FUMBLE
8 plays · 35 yds · 2:270% → 0%
Q4 2:37
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+13
0.0%
Isaiah Augustave run for 13 yds to the ARK 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 2:37
1ST & 10
OWN 38
+18
0.0%
Jacolby Criswell pass complete to Andrew Armstrong for 18 yds to the MIZ 44 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 2:37
1ST & 10
OPP 44
+4
0.0%
Isaiah Augustave run for 4 yds to the MIZ 40Similar
Q4 2:37
2ND & 6
OPP 40
+5
0.0%
Dominique Johnson run for 5 yds to the MIZ 35Similar
Q4 2:37
3RD & 1
OPP 35
+2
0.0%
Dominique Johnson run for 2 yds to the MIZ 33 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 2:37
1ST & 10
OPP 33
0
0.0%
Jacolby Criswell pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 2:37
2ND & 10
OPP 33
+1
0.0%
Jacolby Criswell run for 1 yd to the MIZ 32Similar
Q4 0:10
3RD & 9
OPP 32
-8
0.0%
Jacolby Criswell sacked for a loss of 8 yards to the MIZ 40Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MIZDrive 26END OF GAME
1 play · -1 yds · 0:00100% → 100%
Q4 0:00
1ST & 10
OWN 40
0
0.1%
[NHSG] Kneel down by HORN, Sam at MIZ39 (team loss of 1), clock 00:00.Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
TD · Q2 5:35
Brady Cook run for 3 yds for a TD (Harrison Mevis KICK)
-14.4
TD · Q3 11:43
Brady Cook pass complete to Brett Norfleet for 16 yds for a TD (Harrison Mevis KICK)
-6.1
FG · Q2 0:49
Harrison Mevis 22 yd FG GOOD
-4.5
YardLine · model v10Model estimate - not betting advice · Data provided by CollegeFootballData.com