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MISS

Ole Miss 17 at Mississippi State 7

MSST
2023 · Week 13 · Nov 23, 2023 · Davis Wade Stadium
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Win probability · MSST
modelMSST aheadMISS aheadconfidence bandkey playMSST scoreMISS score
0%25%50%75%100%Q1Q2Q3Q4FGTDTDTDEnd of GameFG-0.3MSST 31.2%Caden Costa 36 yd FG GOODAWAY 3 - HOME 0 · Q2 8:23
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Q2 8:23 · Caden Costa 36 yd FG GOOD
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Pregame priorHome team on offenseScore differentialGarbage-time factorScore diff ÷ seconds remainingScore diff ÷ offense timeouts
+39.0+19.50−19.5−39.0Q1Q2Q3Q4Play 66Pregame prior−18.4Home team on offense−2.8Score differential−1.5Garbage-time factor−0.1Score diff ÷ seconds remaining−0.5Score diff ÷ offense timeouts−0.6
This game in five plays
  1. KEY PLAY · Q2 0:55: Will Rogers pass complete to Antonio Harmon for 4 yds to the MISS 39 — MSST win probability +4.6 pts (now 36%) (top driver: Not a blowout margin).
  2. TD · Q3 8:33: Will Rogers run for 1 yd for a TD (Kyle Ferrie KICK) — MSST win probability +17.0 pts (now 58%) (top driver: MSST has the ball).
  3. KEY PLAY · Q3 7:35: Quinshon Judkins run for 10 yds to the MSST 40 for a 1ST down — MISS win probability +5.6 pts (now 52%) (top driver: Deficit strained by the offense's own timeouts).
  4. TD · Q3 4:47: Quinshon Judkins 2 Yd Run (Caden Davis Kick) — MISS win probability +18.5 pts (now 71%) (top driver: MISS has the ball).
  5. TD · Q4 13:26: Jaxson Dart pass complete to Caden Prieskorn for 26 yds for a TD (Caden Davis KICK) — MISS win probability +13.0 pts (now 83%) (top driver: MISS has the ball).
Was that the right call?

Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works

Fourth downs
MSST made the numbers' call on 9 of 12MISS made the numbers' call on 9 of 11
  1. Q1 14:16MSST 4th & 12 at MSST 23, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 26.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    25.9%−0.2
    22% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    26.1%
    average punt
  2. Q1 12:31MISS 4th & 5 at MISS 42, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 73.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    73.1%−<0.1
    41% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    73.1%
    average punt
  3. Q1 9:50MSST 4th & 12 at MSST 24, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 27.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    27.8%−0.2
    22% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    28.0%
    average punt
  4. Q1 8:41MISS 4th & 7 at MISS 43, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 71.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    71.3%−0.1
    37% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    71.4%
    average punt
  5. Q1 8:03MSST 4th & 10 at MSST 15, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 28.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    28.4%−0.3
    28% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    28.7%
    average punt
  6. Q1 6:55MISS 4th & 7 at MISS 42, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 70.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    70.4%−0.2
    37% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    70.5%
    average punt
  7. Q1 3:29MSST 4th & 14 at MSST 37, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 30.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    30.3%−0.6
    18% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    30.8%
    average punt
  8. Q1 1:33MISS 4th & 4 at MISS 38, tied
    Close callPunted · 68.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    68.1%
    48% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    68.1%−0.1
    average punt
  9. Q2 14:45MSST 4th & 4 at MSST 49, tied
    Close callPunted · 33.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    33.8%
    48% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    33.6%−0.2
    average punt
  10. Q2 8:23MISS 4th & 6 at MSST 19, tied
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 65.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    65.0%−0.2
    38% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    65.2%
    77% to make
    Punt
    61.9%−3.3
    average punt
  11. Q2 6:11MSST 4th & 1 at MSST 34, down 3
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 32.5% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    33.1%
    71% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    Punt
    32.2%−1.0
    average punt
  12. Q2 4:22MSST 4th & 5 at midfield, down 3
    Close callPunted · 34.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    34.6%
    41% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    34.3%−0.3
    average punt
  13. Q2 1:49MISS 4th & 6 at MISS 34, up 3
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 65.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    65.0%−0.4
    40% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    65.4%
    average punt
  14. Q2 0:15MSST 4th & 1 at MISS 24, down 3
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 36.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    36.6%−0.6
    71% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    37.3%
    68% to make
    Punt
    32.2%−5.1
    average punt
  15. Q3 13:28MISS 4th & 2 at MISS 33, up 3
    Close callPunted · 65.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    65.8%
    57% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    65.8%−<0.1
    average punt
  16. Q3 2:52MSST 4th & 1 at MSST 34, down 3
    Numbers favored go for it by 2.1 ptsPunted · 37.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    39.0%
    71% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    36.9%−2.1
    average punt
  17. Q4 14:40MISS 4th & 3 at MSST 41, up 3
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 64.6% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    65.5%
    52% to convert
    Field goal
    61.4%−4.1
    32% to make
    Punt
    62.3%−3.2
    average punt
  18. Q4 12:04MSST 4th & 8 at MSST 17, down 10
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 15.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    14.6%−1.2
    32% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    15.8%
    average punt
  19. Q4 10:57MISS 4th & 10 at MSST 45, up 10
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 83.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    82.4%−0.9
    30% to convert
    Field goal
    81.1%−2.1
    25% to make
    PuntTheir call
    83.3%
    average punt
  20. Q4 6:28MSST 4th & 12 at MISS 32, down 10
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 11.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    11.1%−1.2
    23% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    12.3%
    51% to make
    Punt
    10.5%−1.8
    average punt
  21. Q4 5:17MISS 4th & 19 at MISS 23, up 10
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 88.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    85.8%−3.4
    10% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    89.1%
    average punt
  22. Q4 4:47MSST 4th & 7 at MISS 46, down 10
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 10.6% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    10.7%
    37% to convert
    Field goal
    9.8%−0.9
    23% to make
    Punt
    10.3%−0.4
    average punt
  23. Q4 2:30MISS 4th & 1 at MSST 45, up 10
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 92.9% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    92.9%
    70% to convert
    Field goal
    90.4%−2.4
    25% to make
    Punt
    90.9%−2.0
    average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
MSST made the numbers' call on 1 of 1MISS made the numbers' call on 2 of 2
  1. Q3 8:33MSST Touchdown, up 3 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    51.9%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    51.8%−0.2
    45% to convert
  2. Q3 4:47MISS Touchdown, up 2 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    63.1%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    62.9%−0.2
    45% to convert
  3. Q4 13:26MISS Touchdown, up 9 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    81.4%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    81.2%−0.2
    45% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chart
MSSTDrive 1PUNT
5 plays · -2 yds · 0:2224% → 24%
Q1 14:38
1ST & 10
OWN 25
-2
23.8%
Jo'Quavious Marks run for a loss of 2 yards to the MSST 23Similar
Q1 14:32
2ND & 12
OWN 23
0
23.8%
Will Rogers pass incomplete to Freddie RobersonSimilar
Q1 14:28
3RD & 12
OWN 23
0
23.9%
Will Rogers pass incomplete to Jo'Quavious MarksSimilar
Q1 14:16
4TH & 12
OWN 23
0
23.9%
Keelan Crimmins punt for 50 yds, downed at the MISS 27Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MISSDrive 2PUNT
6 plays · 15 yds · 1:3376% → 75%
Q1 14:04
1ST & 10
OWN 27
+5
24.1%
Quinshon Judkins run for 5 yds to the MISS 32Similar
Q1 13:45
2ND & 5
OWN 32
+5
24.2%
Jaxson Dart pass complete to Tre Harris for 5 yds to the MISS 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 13:30
1ST & 10
OWN 37
0
24.3%
Jaxson Dart pass incomplete to Quinshon JudkinsSimilar
Q1 13:00
2ND & 10
OWN 37
+5
24.6%
Jaxson Dart pass complete to Dayton Wade for 5 yds to the MISS 42Similar
Q1 12:43
3RD & 5
OWN 42
0
24.6%
Jaxson Dart pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 12:31
4TH & 5
OWN 42
0
24.8%
Fraser Masin punt for 42 yds, downed at the MSST 16Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MSSTDrive 3PUNT
7 plays · 8 yds · 2:3025% → 26%
Q1 12:20
1ST & 10
OWN 16
+2
25.0%
Jo'Quavious Marks run for 2 yds to the MSST 18Similar
Q1 11:55
2ND & 8
OWN 18
-1
25.1%
Jo'Quavious Marks run for a loss of 1 yard to the MSST 17Similar
Q1 11:30
3RD & 9
OWN 17
+9
25.2%
Will Rogers pass complete to Lideatrick Griffin for 9 yds to the MSST 26 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 10:35
1ST & 10
OWN 26
+3
25.8%
Jo'Quavious Marks run for 3 yds to the MSST 29Similar
Q1 10:12
2ND & 7
OWN 29
0
26.1%
Will Rogers pass incomplete to Zavion ThomasSimilar
Q1 10:01
3RD & 7
OWN 29
-5
26.0%
Will Rogers pass complete to Seth Davis for a loss of 5 yards to the MSST 24Similar
Q1 9:50
4TH & 12
OWN 24
0
25.9%
Keelan Crimmins punt for 36 yds, fair catch by Jordan Watkins at the MISS 40Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MISSDrive 4PUNT
4 plays · 3 yds · 0:4474% → 73%
Q1 9:25
1ST & 10
OWN 40
+6
26.1%
Quinshon Judkins run for 6 yds to the MISS 46Similar
Q1 9:14
2ND & 4
OWN 46
-3
26.0%
Jaxson Dart pass complete to Quinshon Judkins for a loss of 3 yards to the MISS 43Similar
Q1 9:10
3RD & 7
OWN 43
0
26.3%
Jaxson Dart pass incomplete to Dayton WadeSimilar
Q1 8:41
4TH & 7
OWN 43
+6
26.7%
Fraser Masin punt for 48 yds , Zavion Thomas returns for 6 yds to the MSST 15Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MSSTDrive 5PUNT
4 plays · 0 yds · 0:1927% → 27%
Q1 8:22
1ST & 10
OWN 15
0
26.8%
Will Rogers pass complete to Antonio Harmon for no gain to the MSST 15Similar
Q1 8:14
2ND & 10
OWN 15
0
26.9%
Will Rogers pass incomplete to Antonio HarmonSimilar
Q1 8:10
3RD & 10
OWN 15
0
26.6%
Will Rogers pass incomplete to Lideatrick GriffinSimilar
Q1 8:03
4TH & 10
OWN 15
0
26.6%
Keelan Crimmins punt for 46 yds, downed at the MISS 39Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MISSDrive 6PUNT
5 plays · 4 yds · 0:4873% → 72%
Q1 7:43
1ST & 10
OWN 39
+5
26.7%
Jaxson Dart pass complete to Ulysses Bentley IV for 5 yds to the MISS 44Similar
Q1 7:17
2ND & 5
OWN 44
+3
26.7%
Jaxson Dart pass complete to Caden Prieskorn for 3 yds to the MISS 47Similar
Q1 7:02
4TH & 2
OWN 47
-4
27.2%
Ole Miss Penalty, Delay of Game (-4 Yards) to the MISS 42Similar
Q1 7:02
3RD & 2
OWN 47
0
26.9%
Jaxson Dart pass incomplete to Ulysses Bentley IVSimilar
Q1 6:55
4TH & 7
OWN 42
0
27.6%
Fraser Masin punt for 43 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the MSST 15Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MSSTDrive 7PUNT
9 plays · 22 yds · 3:0728% → 29%
Q1 6:36
1ST & 10
OWN 15
+5
27.7%
Jeffery Pittman run for 5 yds to the MSST 20Similar
Q1 6:15
2ND & 5
OWN 20
+3
27.9%
Jeffery Pittman run for 3 yds to the MSST 23Similar
Q1 5:30
3RD & 2
OWN 23
+5
28.0%
Pittman, Jeffery rush for 2 yards to the MISSSTATE25, PENALTY OLEMISS 12 men on the field 5 yards to the MISSSTATE28, NO PLAY, 1ST DOWN MISSSTATE.Similar
Q1 5:00
1ST & 10
OWN 28
+13
28.6%
Keyvone Lee run for 13 yds to the MSST 41 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 4:40
1ST & 10
OWN 41
+1
29.3%
Keyvone Lee run for 1 yd to the MSST 42Similar
Q1 4:27
2ND & 9
OWN 42
-10
29.3%
Rogers, Will pass complete to Thomas, Zavion for 8 yards to the 50 yardline, PENALTY MISSSTATE holding (Jones, Kameron) 10 yards to the MISSSTATE32, NO PLAY.Similar
Q1 4:15
2ND & 19
OWN 32
0
28.9%
Will Rogers pass incomplete to Jaden WalleySimilar
Q1 3:45
3RD & 19
OWN 32
+5
28.7%
Will Rogers pass complete to Jeffery Pittman for 5 yds to the MSST 37Similar
Q1 3:29
4TH & 14
OWN 37
0
28.7%
Keelan Crimmins punt for 42 yds, downed at the MISS 21Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MISSDrive 8PUNT
6 plays · 17 yds · 1:4571% → 70%
Q1 3:18
1ST & 10
OWN 21
+9
29.3%
Ulysses Bentley IV run for 9 yds to the MISS 30Similar
Q1 2:25
2ND & 1
OWN 30
+2
28.8%
Ulysses Bentley IV run for 2 yds to the MISS 32 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 2:08
1ST & 10
OWN 32
+6
29.3%
Ulysses Bentley IV run for 6 yds to the MISS 38Similar
Q1 1:53
2ND & 4
OWN 38
0
28.8%
Jaxson Dart pass incomplete to Dayton WadeSimilar
Q1 1:42
3RD & 4
OWN 38
0
29.2%
Jaxson Dart pass incomplete to Jordan WatkinsSimilar
Q1 1:33
4TH & 4
OWN 38
-3
30.1%
Fraser Masin punt for 42 yds , Zavion Thomas returns for a loss of 3 yards to the MSST 17Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MSSTDrive 9PUNT
6 plays · 32 yds · 1:3031% → 32%
Q1 1:15
1ST & 10
OWN 17
+26
30.7%
Will Rogers pass complete to Zavion Thomas for 26 yds to the MSST 43 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 0:55
1ST & 10
OWN 43
0
31.9%
Jeffery Pittman run for no gain to the MSST 43Similar
Q1 0:18
2ND & 10
OWN 43
+1
32.0%
Jeffery Pittman run for 1 yd to the MSST 44Similar
Q1 0:01
3RD & 9
OWN 44
+5
31.6%
Rogers, Will pass pass intended for Thomas, Zavion intercepted by Walton, Zamari at the OLEMISS36, Walton, Zamari return 58 yards to the MISSSTATE6, PENALTY OLEMISS offside (Ukwu, Isaac) 5 yards to the MISSSTATE49, NO PLAY.Similar
Q2 14:53
3RD & 4
OWN 49
0
32.4%
Will Rogers pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 14:45
4TH & 4
OWN 49
0
31.8%
Keelan Crimmins punt for 36 yds, fair catch by Jordan Watkins at the MISS 15Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MISSDrive 10FG
14 plays · 66 yds · 6:1169% → 69%
Q2 14:34
1ST & 10
OWN 15
0
30.9%
Quinshon Judkins run for no gain to the MISS 15Similar
Q2 13:50
2ND & 10
OWN 15
+4
31.3%
Jaxson Dart pass complete to Quinshon Judkins for 4 yds to the MISS 19Similar
Q2 13:30
3RD & 6
OWN 19
+6
31.9%
Jaxson Dart pass complete to Caden Prieskorn for 6 yds to the MISS 25 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 13:13
1ST & 10
OWN 25
-5
31.5%
Ole Miss Penalty, False Start (Quincy McGee) to the MISS 20Similar
Q2 12:37
1ST & 15
OWN 20
+20
31.9%
Quinshon Judkins run for 20 yds to the MISS 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 12:20
1ST & 10
OWN 40
+2
30.9%
Quinshon Judkins run for 2 yds to the MISS 42Similar
Q2 12:00
2ND & 8
OWN 42
+4
31.0%
Quinshon Judkins run for 4 yds to the MISS 46Similar
Q2 11:00
3RD & 4
OWN 46
+21
31.4%
Jaxson Dart run for 6 yds to the MSST 48 for a 1ST down Mississippi State Penalty, Unnecessary Roughness (Corey Ellington) to the MSST 33 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 10:45
1ST & 10
OPP 33
+6
30.5%
Ulysses Bentley IV run for 6 yds to the MSST 27Similar
Q2 10:25
2ND & 4
OPP 27
+4
30.5%
Ulysses Bentley IV run for 4 yds to the MSST 23 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 10:15
1ST & 10
OPP 23
0
30.6%
Ulysses Bentley IV run for no gain to the MSST 23Similar
Q2 9:35
2ND & 10
OPP 23
+3
30.8%
Jaxson Dart pass complete to Caden Prieskorn for 3 yds to the MSST 20Similar
Q2 8:45
3RD & 7
OPP 20
+1
31.6%
Quinshon Judkins run for 1 yd to the MSST 19Similar
Q2 8:23
4TH & 6
OPP 19
+36
31.2%
Caden Costa 36 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MSSTDrive 11PUNT
10 plays · 25 yds · 3:4831% → 32%
Q2 8:10
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+4
31.1%
Zavion Thomas run for 4 yds to the MSST 29Similar
Q2 7:35
2ND & 6
OWN 29
+1
31.4%
Keyvone Lee run for 1 yd to the MSST 30Similar
Q2 6:56
3RD & 5
OWN 30
+4
30.0%
Will Rogers pass complete to Zavion Thomas for 4 yds to the MSST 34Similar
Q2 6:11
4TH & 1
OWN 34
+11
30.0%
Zavion Thomas run for 11 yds to the MSST 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 5:50
1ST & 10
OWN 45
0
33.0%
Jo'Quavious Marks run for no gain to the MSST 45Similar
Q2 5:20
2ND & 10
OWN 45
+2
32.1%
Will Rogers pass complete to Justin Robinson for 2 yds to the MSST 47Similar
Q2 4:50
3RD & 8
OWN 47
+3
31.8%
Jo'Quavious Marks run for 3 yds to the 50 yard lineSimilar
Q2 4:22
4TH & 5
50
0
32.4%
Keelan Crimmins punt for 41 yds, fair catch by Jordan Watkins at the MISS 9Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MISSDrive 12PUNT
7 plays · 25 yds · 2:1168% → 68%
Q2 4:00
1ST & 10
OWN 9
+9
31.8%
Jaxson Dart pass complete to Dayton Wade for 9 yds to the MISS 18Similar
Q2 3:40
2ND & 1
OWN 18
+2
31.0%
Quinshon Judkins run for 2 yds to the MISS 20 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 3:20
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+10
31.6%
Jaxson Dart run for 10 yds to the MISS 30 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 2:56
1ST & 10
OWN 30
0
31.1%
Quinshon Judkins run for no gain to the MISS 30Similar
Q2 2:20
2ND & 10
OWN 30
+4
31.7%
Jaxson Dart pass complete to Quinshon Judkins for 4 yds to the MISS 34Similar
Q2 1:56
3RD & 6
OWN 34
0
31.1%
Jaxson Dart pass incomplete to Dayton WadeSimilar
Q2 1:49
4TH & 6
OWN 34
0
32.4%
Fraser Masin punt for 48 yds, fair catch by Zavion Thomas at the MSST 18Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MSSTDrive 13MISSED FG
11 plays · 58 yds · 1:2532% → 35%
Q2 1:40
1ST & 10
OWN 18
+16
32.1%
Will Rogers pass complete to Zavion Thomas for 16 yds to the MSST 34 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 1:33
1ST & 10
OWN 34
0
32.5%
Will Rogers pass incomplete to Freddie RobersonSimilar
Q2 1:26
2ND & 10
OWN 34
0
32.3%
Will Rogers pass complete to Lideatrick Griffin for no gain to the MSST 34Similar
Q2 1:23
3RD & 10
OWN 34
+23
31.5%
Will Rogers pass complete to Justin Robinson for 23 yds to the MISS 43 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:55
1ST & 10
OPP 43
+4
36.1%
Will Rogers pass complete to Antonio Harmon for 4 yds to the MISS 39Similar
Q2 0:51
2ND & 6
OPP 39
+6
36.2%
Will Rogers pass complete to Antonio Harmon for 6 yds to the MISS 33 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:33
1ST & 10
OPP 33
+5
37.7%
Jeffery Pittman run for 5 yds to the MISS 28Similar
Q2 0:25
2ND & 5
OPP 28
+3
37.6%
Will Rogers pass complete to Jeffery Pittman for 3 yds to the MISS 25Similar
Q2 0:20
3RD & 2
OPP 25
+1
35.8%
Jeffery Pittman run for 1 yd to the MISS 24Similar
Q2 0:15
4TH & 1
OPP 24
+42
34.7%
Kyle Ferrie 42 yd FG MISSEDSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MISSDrive 14END OF HALF
1 play · 13 yds · 0:0068% → 68%
Q2 0:01
1ST & 10
OWN 24
+13
32.1%
Ulysses Bentley IV run for 13 yds to the MISS 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MISSDrive 15PUNT
5 plays · 8 yds · 1:1768% → 66%
Q3 14:45
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+4
32.5%
Quinshon Judkins run for 4 yds to the MISS 29Similar
Q3 14:28
2ND & 6
OWN 29
+3
32.0%
Quinshon Judkins run for 3 yds to the MISS 32Similar
Q3 13:30
3RD & 3
OWN 32
+1
32.9%
Jaxson Dart run for 1 yd to the MISS 33Similar
Q3 13:28
4TH & 2
OWN 33
0
33.8%
Fraser Masin punt for 38 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the MSST 29Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MSSTDrive 16TD
10 plays · 71 yds · 4:2735% → 58%
Q3 13:00
1ST & 10
OWN 29
+7
34.6%
Will Rogers pass complete to Lideatrick Griffin for 7 yds to the MSST 36Similar
Q3 12:40
2ND & 3
OWN 36
+1
36.7%
Jo'Quavious Marks run for 1 yd to the MSST 37Similar
Q3 12:00
3RD & 2
OWN 37
+4
36.0%
Will Rogers pass complete to Jo'Quavious Marks for 4 yds to the MSST 41 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 11:45
1ST & 10
OWN 41
+14
37.3%
Will Rogers pass complete to Lideatrick Griffin for 14 yds to the MISS 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 11:10
1ST & 10
OPP 45
+2
38.7%
Jo'Quavious Marks run for 2 yds to the MISS 43Similar
Q3 10:28
2ND & 8
OPP 43
+22
39.0%
Will Rogers pass complete to Zavion Thomas for 22 yds to the MISS 21 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 9:40
1ST & 10
OPP 21
-1
40.8%
Zavion Thomas sacked by Deantre Prince for a loss of 1 yard to the MISS 22Similar
Q3 9:20
2ND & 11
OPP 22
+17
40.8%
Jo'Quavious Marks run for 17 yds to the MISS 5 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 8:54
1ST & GOAL
OPP 5
+4
41.2%
Will Rogers run for 4 yds to the MISS 1Similar
Q3 8:33
2ND & GOAL
OPP 1
+1
58.2%
Will Rogers run for 1 yd for a TD (Kyle Ferrie KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MISSDrive 17TD
12 plays · 75 yds · 3:3348% → 71%
Q3 8:20
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+2
52.1%
Quinshon Judkins run for 2 yds to the MISS 27Similar
Q3 8:10
2ND & 8
OWN 27
0
51.9%
Jaxson Dart pass incomplete to Caden PrieskornSimilar
Q3 7:58
3RD & 8
OWN 27
+23
53.8%
Jaxson Dart run for 7 yds to the MISS 34 for a 1ST down Mississippi State Penalty, Personal Foul (DeShawn Page) to the 50 yard line for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 7:35
1ST & 10
50
+10
48.2%
Quinshon Judkins run for 10 yds to the MSST 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 7:00
1ST & 10
OPP 40
+11
48.6%
Quinshon Judkins run for 11 yds to the MSST 29 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 6:44
1ST & 10
OPP 29
-10
47.0%
Judkins, Quinshon rush for 4 yards to the MISSSTATE25, PENALTY OLEMISS holding (James, Jeremy) 10 yards to the MISSSTATE39, NO PLAY.Similar
Q3 6:12
1ST & 20
OPP 39
+14
51.1%
Quinshon Judkins run for 14 yds to the MSST 25Similar
Q3 5:56
2ND & 6
OPP 25
+13
47.6%
Jaxson Dart pass complete to Tre Harris for 13 yds to the MSST 12 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 5:48
1ST & 10
OPP 12
+1
47.6%
Quinshon Judkins run for 1 yd to the MSST 11Similar
Q3 5:00
2ND & 9
OPP 11
+9
48.0%
Ulysses Bentley IV run for 9 yds to the MSST 2 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 4:47
1ST & GOAL
OPP 2
+2
29.5%
Quinshon Judkins 2 Yd Run (Caden Davis Kick)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MSSTDrive 18PUNT
5 plays · 9 yds · 1:3337% → 36%
Q3 4:25
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+1
37.2%
Will Rogers pass complete to Zavion Thomas for 1 yd to the MSST 26Similar
Q3 3:56
2ND & 9
OWN 26
+3
37.2%
Mike Wright run for 3 yds to the MSST 29Similar
Q3 3:20
3RD & 6
OWN 29
+5
36.6%
Will Rogers run for 5 yds to the MSST 34Similar
Q3 2:52
4TH & 1
OWN 34
0
36.4%
Keelan Crimmins punt for 37 yds, fair catch by Jordan Watkins at the MISS 29Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MISSDrive 19TD
10 plays · 71 yds · 4:1466% → 83%
Q3 2:40
1ST & 10
OWN 29
+11
34.3%
Ulysses Bentley IV run for 11 yds to the MISS 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 2:20
1ST & 10
OWN 40
+9
32.2%
Jaxson Dart pass complete to Tre Harris for 9 yds to the MISS 49Similar
Q3 2:00
2ND & 1
OWN 49
+3
31.3%
Ulysses Bentley IV run for 3 yds to the MSST 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 1:15
1ST & 10
OPP 48
0
31.7%
Quinshon Judkins run for no gain to the MSST 48Similar
Q3 1:04
2ND & 10
OPP 48
+3
31.8%
Jaxson Dart run for 3 yds to the MSST 45Similar
Q3 0:35
3RD & 7
OPP 45
+4
32.4%
Quinshon Judkins run for 4 yds to the MSST 41Similar
Q4 14:40
4TH & 3
OPP 41
+7
34.8%
Jaxson Dart pass complete to Jordan Watkins for 7 yds to the MSST 34 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 14:20
1ST & 10
OPP 34
+6
30.8%
Jaxson Dart run for 6 yds to the MSST 28Similar
Q4 13:58
2ND & 4
OPP 28
+2
30.4%
Quinshon Judkins run for 2 yds to the MSST 26Similar
Q4 13:26
3RD & 2
OPP 26
+26
17.4%
Jaxson Dart pass complete to Caden Prieskorn for 26 yds for a TD (Caden Davis KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MSSTDrive 20PUNT
5 plays · 2 yds · 0:5618% → 15%
Q4 13:00
1ST & 10
OWN 15
+2
17.9%
Jo'Quavious Marks run for 2 yds to the MSST 17Similar
Q4 12:45
2ND & 8
OWN 17
0
17.9%
Will Rogers pass complete to Jo'Quavious Marks for no gain to the MSST 17Similar
Q4 12:11
3RD & 8
OWN 17
0
16.1%
Will Rogers pass incomplete to Freddie RobersonSimilar
Q4 12:04
4TH & 8
OWN 17
0
15.3%
Keelan Crimmins punt for 38 yds, fair catch by Jordan Watkins at the MISS 45Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MISSDrive 21PUNT
6 plays · 10 yds · 0:4785% → 84%
Q4 11:44
1ST & 10
OWN 45
+3
15.4%
Quinshon Judkins run for 3 yds to the MISS 48Similar
Q4 11:20
2ND & 7
OWN 48
+7
15.3%
Quinshon Judkins run for 7 yds to the MSST 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 11:14
1ST & 10
OPP 45
0
14.1%
Jaxson Dart pass incomplete to Tre HarrisSimilar
Q4 11:08
2ND & 10
OPP 45
0
14.1%
Jaxson Dart pass incomplete to Tre HarrisSimilar
Q4 11:03
3RD & 10
OPP 45
0
14.6%
Jaxson Dart pass incomplete to Jordan WatkinsSimilar
Q4 10:57
4TH & 10
OPP 45
0
16.1%
Fraser Masin punt for 37 yds, fair catch by Zavion Thomas at the MSST 8Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MSSTDrive 22MISSED FG
11 plays · 60 yds · 4:0214% → 12%
Q4 10:30
1ST & 10
OWN 8
+19
14.2%
Will Rogers pass complete to Zavion Thomas for 19 yds to the MSST 27 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 10:09
1ST & 10
OWN 27
+11
14.1%
Will Rogers pass complete to Justin Robinson for 11 yds to the MSST 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 9:49
1ST & 10
OWN 38
0
15.2%
Will Rogers pass incomplete to Lideatrick GriffinSimilar
Q4 9:28
2ND & 10
OWN 38
+8
14.8%
Will Rogers pass complete to Lideatrick Griffin for 8 yds to the MSST 46Similar
Q4 9:02
3RD & 2
OWN 46
+6
15.4%
Jo'Quavious Marks run for 6 yds to the MISS 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 8:38
1ST & 10
OPP 48
+18
15.8%
Will Rogers pass complete to Ryland Goede for 18 yds to the MISS 30 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 8:13
1ST & 10
OPP 30
0
17.4%
Will Rogers pass incomplete to Lideatrick GriffinSimilar
Q4 7:44
2ND & 10
OPP 30
+6
17.1%
Jo'Quavious Marks run for 6 yds to the MISS 24Similar
Q4 7:14
3RD & 4
OPP 24
-15
16.1%
Rogers, Will pass complete to Thomas, Zavion for 4 yards to the OLEMISS20, PENALTY MISSSTATE pass interference (Griffin, Lideatrick) 15 yards to the OLEMISS39, NO PLAY.Similar
Q4 6:48
3RD & 19
OPP 39
+7
13.2%
Will Rogers pass complete to Jo'Quavious Marks for 7 yds to the MISS 32Similar
Q4 6:28
4TH & 12
OPP 32
+50
11.5%
Kyle Ferrie 50 yd FG MISSEDSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MISSDrive 23PUNT
4 plays · -9 yds · 1:0589% → 89%
Q4 6:22
1ST & 10
OWN 32
0
10.8%
Jaxson Dart pass incomplete to Dayton WadeSimilar
Q4 6:05
2ND & 10
OWN 32
0
10.7%
Quinshon Judkins run for no gain to the MISS 32Similar
Q4 5:38
3RD & 10
OWN 32
-9
11.5%
Jaxson Dart sacked by Corey Ellington for a loss of 9 yards to the MISS 23 Ole Miss Penalty, Intentional Grounding (Jaxson Dart) to the MISS 23Similar
Q4 5:17
4TH & 19
OWN 23
+21
11.0%
Fraser Masin punt for 47 yds , Zavion Thomas returns for 21 yds to the MISS 49Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MSSTDrive 24DOWNS
4 plays · 3 yds · 0:2313% → 11%
Q4 5:10
1ST & 10
OPP 49
0
12.9%
Will Rogers pass incomplete to Antonio HarmonSimilar
Q4 5:03
2ND & 10
OPP 49
+3
12.6%
Will Rogers pass complete to Jo'Quavious Marks for 3 yds to the MISS 46Similar
Q4 4:52
3RD & 7
OPP 46
0
12.4%
Will Rogers pass incomplete to Ryland GoedeSimilar
Q4 4:47
4TH & 7
OPP 46
0
10.5%
Will Rogers pass incomplete to Lideatrick GriffinSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MISSDrive 25END OF GAME
13 plays · 21 yds · 3:5591% → 96%
Q4 4:25
1ST & 10
OWN 46
-2
9.3%
Quinshon Judkins run for a loss of 2 yards to the MISS 44Similar
Q4 3:52
2ND & 12
OWN 44
0
9.5%
Quinshon Judkins run for no gain to the MISS 44Similar
Q4 3:20
3RD & 12
OWN 44
+11
7.6%
Quinshon Judkins run for 11 yds to the MSST 45Similar
Q4 2:30
4TH & 1
OPP 45
+3
5.6%
JJ Pegues run for 3 yds to the MSST 42 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 2:19
1ST & 10
OPP 42
+2
5.1%
Quinshon Judkins run for 2 yds to the MSST 40Similar
Q4 2:13
2ND & 8
OPP 40
+5
4.7%
Quinshon Judkins run for 5 yds to the MSST 35Similar
Q4 2:00
3RD & 3
OPP 35
+6
3.7%
Jaxson Dart run for 6 yds to the MSST 29 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 1:04
1ST & 10
OPP 29
-3
3.5%
TEAM run for a loss of 3 yards to the MSST 32Similar
Q4 0:30
2ND & 13
OPP 32
-1
3.6%
TEAM run for a loss of 1 yard to the MSST 33Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
TD · Q3 4:47
Quinshon Judkins 2 Yd Run (Caden Davis Kick)
-18.5
TD · Q3 8:33
Will Rogers run for 1 yd for a TD (Kyle Ferrie KICK)
+17
TD · Q4 13:26
Jaxson Dart pass complete to Caden Prieskorn for 26 yds for a TD (Caden Davis KICK)
-13
YardLine · model v10Model estimate - not betting advice · Data provided by CollegeFootballData.com